Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 15

DUNKEL INDEX

Duke at Clemson
The Tigers look to take advantage of a Duke team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 road games. Clemson is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Devils favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+7 1/2)

Game 841-842: Indiana at Ohio State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 69.385; Ohio State 84.344
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 15; 146
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 12 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-12 1/2); Over

Game 843-844: Georgetown at St. John's (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 66.577; St. John's 64.129
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 2 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 6; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick St. John's (+6); Under

Game 845-846: Northern Iowa at Bradley (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 61.876; Bradley 51.702
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 10; 133
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 9; 137
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-9); Under

Game 847-848: Youngstown State at Butler (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 52.544; Butler 58.689
Dunkel Line: Butler by 6; 132
Vegas Line: Butler by 8; 129
Dunkel Pick: Youngstown State (+8); Over

Game 849-850: Cleveland State at Valparaiso (2:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 58.644; Valparaiso 56.302
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 2 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Pick; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State; Over

Game 851-852: Evansville at Missouri State (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 55.345; Missouri State 66.735
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 11 1/2; 134
Vegas Line: Missouri State by 10; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri State (-10); Under

Game 853-854: Western Kentucky at Denver (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 45.714; Denver 63.788
Dunkel Line: Denver by 18; 120
Vegas Line: Denver by 15 1/2; 124 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-15 1/2); Under

Game 855-856: Georgia Tech at Maryland (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 59.322; Maryland 60.041
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 1; 137
Vegas Line: Maryland by 2; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+2); Over

Game 857-858: Minnesota at Penn State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 63.622; Penn State 60.504
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 3; 122
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 1; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-1); Under

Game 859-860: Duke at Clemson (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 70.304; Clemson 65.849
Dunkel Line: Duke by 4 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Duke by 7 1/2; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+7 1/2); Over

Game 861-862: Nebraska at Wisconsin (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 56.479; Wisconsin 70.690
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 14; 109
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 16; 104
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+16; Over

Game 863-864: Washington State at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 55.771; Washington 65.904
Dunkel Line: Washington by 10; 147
Vegas Line: Washington by 8; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-8); Under

Game 865-866: Southern Illinois at Creighton (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 52.507; Creighton 70.977
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 18 1/2; 148
Vegas Line: Creighton by 15 1/2; 151
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-15 1/2); Under

Game 867-868: Wichita State at Indiana State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 65.513; Indiana State 61.234
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 4 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: Wichita State 8; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (+8); Over

Game 869-870: Illinois State at Drake (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 59.836; Drake 58.689
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 1; 140
Vegas Line: Drake by 1 1/2; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (+1 1/2); Over

Game 871-872: UCLA at USC (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 65.039: USC 60.545
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 4 1/2; 105
Vegas Line: UCLA by 1 1/2; 109
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-1 1/2); Under

Game 873-874: Marist at Niagara (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 43.897; Niagara 53.835
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 10; 151
Vegas Line: Niagara by 7 1/2; 153 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-7 1/2); Under

Game 875-876: St. Peter's at Canisius (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 46.381; Canisius 46.562
Dunkel Line: Even; 130
Vegas Line: Canisius by 2 1/2; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Peter's (+2 1/2); Over

Game 877-878: Loyola-MD at Iona (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 52.885; Iona 67.225
Dunkel Line: Iona by 14 1/2; 148
Vegas Line: Iona by 12; 153 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-12); Under

Joseph D'Amico

Houston vs Baltimore
Play; Baltimore -7½

In their first meeting back in October, Baltimore prevailed, 29-14. That game was played without WR, Andre Johnson. This game will be played without QB, Matt Schaub. Taylor Yates is at the helm. Yates has just a 60.3% completion rate, 4/3 TD/INT ratio, and a 82.9 QB rating. Texans top-receiver, TE, Owen Daniels injured his hand LW and is questionable here. With the injuries to both Schaub and Daniels, Houston is left with just a running game. They rank 2nd in the NFL on the ground but that is with a solid passing game. Now, Baltimore can key on the run. This makes them very dangerous considering they are the #2 stop unit vs. the rush (92.6 YPG) as it is. Their defense is ferocious, allowing a mere 16.6 PPG. On offense, Ray Rice led the NFL in yards from scrimmage with 2068. QB, Joe Flacco has the luxury of playing at home for the first time in quite a while in the post-season. The Texans are 1-4 ATS their L5 games played against the Ravens while the Ravens are 4-1 ATS their L5 Playoff games played as a favorite. Take Baltimore.

SPORTS WAGERS

BALTIMORE -7½ over Texas

They say all good things must come to an end. We’re not sure if the Texans are prepared for that finality but after making the playoffs for the first time in club history and then losing some key players throughout the season, most notably QB Matt Schaub, they may not have a choice. Third-string quarterback T.J. Yates has done an admirable job pivoting this club under difficult conditions but he’s just not seasoned or savvy enough to head into this lion’s den to take on these Ravens. Baltimore has not lost at home this year. Its average winning margin was 12.5 points per game, including a 15-pt. win over these Texans, who had an able-bodied Schaub in the line-up. Baltimore allowed less than 15 points per game on this field with its relentless defense. Penetrating it will be a huge challenge for Yates as he’s been able to rely on the fine running skills of Arian Foster to set up a conservative passing game. However, the Ravens were the league’s second best club at stopping the run, giving up just 92 yards per game. In the first contest between these two, Foster was held to 49 yards on the day. In the likelihood that Yates is forced to abandon the run, we’d expect him to struggle as he has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns when attempting 30 passes or more in a game. Baltimore’s experience, strong running game and home field dominance will be just too much for these current Texans to stay within range. Play: Baltimore -7½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

GREEN BAY –7½ over N.Y. Giants PINNACLE

It never ceases to amaze us how short memories are when it comes to the NFL. The Giants struggle along for most of the season. They need to win their final two games in order to qualify for this post-season and upon doing so, they beat the brains out of a heartless Atlanta squad. Suddenly, they are everyone’s darling pick to upset the champion Packers. We think this is more an ‘out of sight, out of mind’ situation. Teams that played last week are freshly imprinted in the public’s mind. When we look at consensus picks from various websites, all four teams that played last week hold the majority choice over those that were idle. While the Giants’ recent form has been admirable, let us remind you who they are playing. Green Bay is the defending Super Bowl champion. This year’s squad is better and healthier than last year’s. The Packers lost one game this season. They scored the most points in the league (560), led by the exceptional Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Rodgers led the league with an incredible 122.5 passer rating. He threw for 45 touchdowns, one less than Drew Brees despite Brees throwing 155 more passes. Most importantly when considering how the Giants love to pass rush, Rodgers finished the regular season with a league-best 131.4 passer rating against the blitz. The Giants can be had. They gave up more points than they scored (400-394) and their secondary is suspect. The Patriots, Packers, Saints and Cowboys all threw for more than 300 yards against it. For those that have forgotten, Green Bay ’s arsenal will serve as a bold reminder of who still remains the team to beat. Play: Green Bay -7½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

Marc Lawrence

Indiana at Ohio State
Play: Ohio State

Talk about bad timing for the Hoosiers. Ohio State returns home after letting one slip away in the late going at Illinois and they'll be breathing fire to get even with Indiana after losing the first meeting on New Year's Eve in Bloomington, 74-70. IU had gone 0-7 ATS in the series before that upset and will have its hands full with a pissed-off bunch of Buckeyes whose last five wins this campaign have come by an average of 28.4 PPG. The Hoosiers are historically a bad play after taking on Minnesota (3-12 SU and 2-13 ATS after the Gophers) and have covered just two of their last 10 games versus a Big Ten foe with same-season revenge. The Bucks, however, are a superb 9-2 ATS playing with revenge and have cruised to a 6-1 ATS mark at home this season. Look for sure-fire NBA first-rounder Jared Sullinger to easily surpass his 15-point output against Indiana in game one as Value City Arena comes alive for this payback. We recommend a 1-unit play on Oho State.

Rob Vinciletti

Evansville vs. Missouri St
Play: Over 139.5

Evansville has played over in 26 of 38 when the total is 130 to 140 and all 6 times in that role this season. They have gone over in 5 of 6 their 6 road games and 5 of 6 vs teams who allow less than 64 points per game. When they are a dog 6 of their 8 contests have flown over and all 3 with 1 day of rest. Missouri St has gone over all 4 times when the total is 130 to 140 and 5 of 6 as a favorite this season. As a home favorite between -9.5 and -12 seven of the 8 games since 1997 have played over the total. In games vs losing teams 14 of the last 20 have played over the total and 10 of 14 after scoring 60 or less. With both teams chocked with over angles we will back the over here today. Take Evansville at Missouri St to go over the total.

Ben Burns

Carolina Hurricanes @ Washington Capitals
PICK: Washington Capitals

The Capitals are surging. They won again on Friday and are within two points of first place in the Southeast. While the Caps had Friday off, the Hurricanes were busy hosting the defending champs. They'll be playing their third game in four nights here.

The Caps are now 16-6 (16-5-1) at home. On the other hand, the Canes are now a dismal 5-16 (5-12-4) away from Raleigh.

The Caps are also 7-1 the last eight games in this series; 2-0 already this season. No real reason to expect anything different here. Don't mind a larger favorite, consider laying the wood with WASHINGTON.

Teddy Covers

Texans @ Ravens
PICK: Over 36

Both defenses in this matchup are a good notch or two over-rated, giving us a prime opportunity to pounce betting the Ravens-Texans Over the total on Sunday. When these two teams met during the regular season, the total was sitting at 43.5; more than a full TD higher than it is today. That game flew Over the total despite the fact that the Ravens repeatedly settled for field goals. Out of eleven Baltimore possessions, the Ravens produced seven scores while punting only twice. That makes the current total look too low for this bettor!

Houston learned their lesson in their late season loss to the Colts, a game where they did not trust rookie QB TJ Yates to throw downfield Since that defeat, the Texans have come out firing – back-2-back games in the 40’s -- taking the reigns off Yates while making finally healthy playmaker Andre Johnson a bigger part of the offense. Baltimore’s defense was strong statistically once again this year, but we’ve certainly seen cracks, particularly against balanced offenses like the one they’ll face on Sunday. And it’s surely worth noting that Baltimore only faced one Top 10 offense all year, making their overall defensive stats a tad bit misleading.

Houston’s defense, too, put up some very strong statistical numbers. But they played nearly half of their schedule against inept offensive teams – Miami with Chad Henne, Tampa Bay, two games each against Jacksonville and Indy. And when you look at Houston on the road against other playoff teams, that defense starts to look a whole lot weaker: 26 points per game allowed in three tries, leading to two Overs and a push. Expect more of the same on Sunday. Take the Over.

Sean Murphy

Sharks @ Blackhawks
PICK: Under 5.5

This will be the third meeting between the Sharks and Blackhawks this season. The previous two have totaled only five goals in regulation time. I'm confident that we'll see another relatively low-scoring contest on Sunday night.

The Sharks have been a force on the road this season, particularly at the defensive end of the rink, where they're allowing just 1.94 goals per game on enemy ice. Not surprisingly, they've posted a 6-12 o/u record away from the Shark Tank.

San Jose has won back-to-back games, but only managed to score four goals on 70 shots. The Sharks scored only two goals on 37 shots in their last trip to Chicago back on December 11th.

The Blackhawks endured a bit of a slump to start the new year, losing five games in a row, and allowing 16 goals in the process. They've since got back on track, winning two of their last three, with their only loss over that stretch coming by way of overtime in Detroit yesterday afternoon. They've given up a grand total of six goals in regulation time in those three games.

Note that the 'under' is 6-4 in Chicago's last 10 games overall.

Jim Feist

Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets
Pick: Denver Nuggets

The Utah Jazz started the season slow, losing three of their first four games both SU and ATS. The Jazz then went on a five game winning streak which was finally snapped last at home in a loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, 90-87, in OT. The loss also snapped a five game ATS streak for the Jazz. Utah rebounded with a easy win on Saturday at home over the Nets, 107-94. Meanwhile, Denver is off to a 8-4 SU and 8-3 ATS start. The Nuggets are coming off an easy home win over Miami, 117-104 on Friday. The Nuggets are now 5-2 ATS at home this season. Tough spot here for the Jazz as they are playing in the second game of a back-to-back situation. It's going to be tough for the Jazz to keep up with the fast paced Nuggets after having played Saturday. Can't use the altitude here since both teams are considered high-altitude clubs, but it's always tough playing these back-to-back. I'm taking Denver here on Sunday as Utah runs out of gas down the stretch.

JR O'Donnell

Baltimore -7½

The J Oster's Members {Play} will backing the Home Town Balt Ravens who have earned their bye by winning the AFC East and going 12-4 for only the third time in the franchise history. This is their 8th postseason game in their last "4" years, plus they went a perfect 8-0 SU & 4-3-1 ATS at home. Ravens have won "3' straight vs. Kubiak and the Texans with a double digit win back in week #6 as a "7" point home favorite, and that was with Matt Schaub at QB. The Texans have the best RB tandem in the NFL with Arian Foster & Ben Tate who have combined for "11" 100 yard rushing games. Balt's best finish on offense with Joe Flacco at QB has been 13th, but Ray Rice has been the difference down the stretch, finishing #2 to Maurice Jones-Drew in rushing with big games down the stretch. Raven's #3 defense had another good year finishing in the top ten for the 9th straight season. Baltimore has has had a good year with minimal injuries, especially on "D" where only "8" games were missed by starters. They did have "8" games where they held the opposition to "93" yards or less. Balt's biggest issue is their Special Teams who are #25th in the league. By running the ball, and playing very good defense is what got these teams to this juncture. Here we have the #2 and #3 overall "D", while they rank #3 and #4 in scoring "D". We like the Ravens at home where they are 8-0 SU, and against inexperienced TJ Yates at QB when they will make TJ beat them, not the run. Power Rated @ - 11.23 points

MTi Sports

Warriors at Pistons
Prediction: Under

The Warriors are 0-15 OU (-8.2 ppg) when playing the second of back-to-back road games after losing the first and the Pistons are 0-4 OU (-26.2 ppg) at home when Rodney Stuckey played fewer than 30 minutes the last two. Take these two UNDER.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit Penn State +1.5

Expect a letdown from Minnesota on the road this afternoon following such a big upset win over Indiana. Penn State, which has dropped back-to-back games since blowing out Purdue, will be out for blood. The Nittany Lions, who won both games with the Golden Gophers last season, are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 matchups at home. The Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Golden Gophers are 13-27-1 ATS in their last 41 road games and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or fewer. Take Penn State.

Dave Price

1 Unit Golden State Warriors +5.5

One win isn't enough for the Pistons to be getting this much respect from odds makers. Prior to Friday's win over Charlotte, the Pistons had lost 6 in a row SU and ATS. Detroit has been favored in just one other game this season and it lost that game 105-89 to Cleveland. The Pistons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the Warriors.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Bradley Braves +9.5

Out to end a 9-game skid overall and a 3-game losing streak to Northern Iowa, expect Bradley to play some inspired basketball this afternoon. The Braves are back home after playing back-to-back games on the road, and that's good news considering 4 of their 5 wins have come at home. The Braves played Northern Iowa to a 6-point game on the road and a 10-point game at home last season, leaving no doubt they can keep this one close. While Northern Iowa has been a good bet against elite teams, it has been a poor investment against weak competition. Often overvalued, the Panthers are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games versus poor teams who are outscored by an average of 4.0 points or more per game. In addition, the Panthers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. the Missouri Valley Conference, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. We saw Bradley play Creighton to a 9-point game at home last week to earn a cover, and I like the Braves to keeps this one within a generous number as well.