Larry Ness
Minnesota vs Penn State
Pick: Penn State
Ed DeChellis left Happy Valley for Navy (he left while the getting was good!) and taking over for him this year is Patrick Chambers. He won 20 games in each of his first two seasons at Boston U (first coach to do so), so he's no slouch. However, PSU lost Battle (20.2-4.4) and the 6-8 Brooks (13.1-6.3) from last year's team (easily the team's two-best players) plus solid contributors like the 6-7 Jackson (9.9-4.5) and the 6-10 Jones (6.0-5.6 on 54% shooting), as well. Penn St owns a wonderful guard in Frazier (18.1-5.4-6.7) plus depth on the perimeter in swingman Marshall (9.9-3.6), Woodyard (7.5-4.3), freshman Lewis (5.7) and Glover (3.4-4.5). Penn St doesn't own much in the frontcourt with the 6-8 Oliver (7.7-3.7) and 6-8 freshman Graham (3.6-3.2) starting plus the 6-9 Borovnjak (5.4-3.8) and 6-8 Travis (4.6-4.4) coming off the bench. Tubby's Minnesota team lost the do-everything Hoffarber (13.6), PG Nolen (8.4) plus the 6-10 Iverson (5.4-5.0) off last year's team and then saw guard Joseph transfer. To make matters worse, the 6-8 Mbakwe, expected to be the team's best scorer and rebounder this year, was lost for the season after seven games (he was averaging 14.0-9.1). That leaves the 6-7 Williams (10.6-5.9) and the underachieving 6-11 Sampson (8.,5-5.1) up front. The backcourt has great depth but no player in the class of Frazier. Welch (10.2-2.6 APG) is the best scorer (he's a JC transfer) and he's joined by freshman Austin Hollins (8.6) and Coleman (4.4) plus vets Armelin (6.1), Andre Hollins (5.6) and Ahanmisi (5.1-2.6 APG). The Gophers pulled a HUGE upset in their last outing, handing Indiana its first home loss of the season, winning 77-74. Penn St (9-9) doesn't figure to be much better than .500 this year (went 19-15 LY) but the Nittany Lions are 7-3 at home, averaging 15.3 more PPG (71.1) than on the road (55.8). Prior to this past Thursday, Minnesota’s last true road win came against Iowa on February 13, 2011. The last time the Gophers have won consecutive road games was during the 2008-09 season. I'm betting they can't make it two in a row, here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Youngstown St +8 over BUTLER
When you think of the Horizon League, you think Butler Bulldogs because this team has made a name for themselves with eight consecutive league titles and a number of deep runs in the March Madness annual event. The Youngstown State Penguins are a virtual unknown from the same conference. So, when you wager on the Bulldogs in conference play against these teams they've been beating up on for years, you're going to pay a premium. This season, the Bulldogs are a middle-of-the-pack Horizon League club. They rank 303rd in the nation in points scored. They're 3-3 in the conference and 9-9 overall. In their last game against Cleveland State on Friday, they used up plenty of energy to get back into a game that they trailed 20-4 in. They briefly took a 41-40 lead before losing by 14. The Bulldogs are small, they always run cold for prolonged minutes during a game and in no way are they 8-points better than the Penguins. Youngstown State is 4-2 in the conference and 9-7 overall. They have three players, Ashen Ward, junior Damian Eargle and DuShawn Brooks who have all won Horizon League player of the week honours. The Penguins are more balanced and more dangerous from an offensive standpoint. Horizon League teams have been the Bulldogs whipping boys for years. This season they know they have a chance for redemption and the Penguins are no exception. Possible upset. Play: Youngstown State +8 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Georgia Tech +109 over MARYLAND
The Terrapins come in with an 11-4 record and a 1-1 mark in the conference. On paper that doesn't look bad at all but a close look reveals a whole different story. Maryland's four losses have come against Alabama by 20, Iona by 26, Illinois by nine and N.C. State by five. One could argue that's the only four good teams on its entire schedule thus far. The Terps lone conference win came against a rather lame Wake Forest club. Maryland's starting five could be the weakest in the conference and as a result, they're going to be tooth and nails to beat any other ACC team. The Yellow Jackets are also 1-1 in the conference and just 8-8 overall. However, their two ACC games have come against Duke and N.C. State. They lost by just seven at Duke and followed that up with an 11-point road win at N.C. State. Tech is really a wild card in this conference. They've been wildly inconsistent but they've also shown that they're very capable of beating some quality clubs if they play like a team. The Yellow Jackets have to be feeling pretty good about themselves after successive quality games against two solid ACC clubs and now they take a huge step down in class in this pivotal matchup that can see them either go 2-1 in the conference or 1-2. Play: Georgia Tech +109 (Risking 2 units).
VEGAS EXPERTS
New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens
Play: New York Rangers
Two clubs headed in opposite directions here. The Rangers shut out the Leafs 3-0 while the Habs lost at home to Ottawa, 3-2, in a shootout. New York is now 10-2 while Montreal has lost 10 of 13. Playing on back to back days seems to favor the visitors here as they are 17-7 playing on back to back days while the Canadiens are 6-16 in that same situation. New York has revenge for a 4-0 loss suffered in November.
Jack Jones
Golden State Warriors +5
The Detroit Pistons should not be favored against anybody right now. This is one of the worst teams in the league. The Pistons are just 3-9 this season and they're scoring 84.9 points/game. I'll gladly fade them any time they are a favorite.
This line is an overreaction from the Warriors losing to the Charlotte Bobcats last time out on the road. Oddsmakers are putting too much stock into that loss, and I still believe the Warriors are going to be one of the most improved teams in the league this season under first-year head coach Mark Jackson.
The Pistons are 6-21 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons. The Warriors are 19-6 ATS in road games versus horrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game since 1996. Golden State is an incredible 27-9 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Warriors Sunday.
Nelly
Penn State + over Minnesota
The Gophers avoided a 0-5 hole to start Big Ten play by stunning Indiana on Thursday night. While Indiana technically was a top 10 team is was not the massive upset that it looked like as the Gophers had been very competitive in a tough early schedule. The Gophers shot extremely well in that game and now face a second straight road game at Penn State. The Lions had some bad losses early in the year and are just 9-9 but there have been some encouraging signs in Big Ten play. At home Penn State pounded Purdue by 20 and also nearly beat Indiana in a high scoring shootout. Penn State won both meetings in this series last year and the home team is 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings while the Gophers are on a 3-12-1 ATS run in Big Ten play. This is just the fourth road game of the season for the Gophers and Thursday’s win was the lone road victory on the year. Penn State is a solid 7-3 at home and coming off an ugly loss at Nebraska should fuel the Lions for a strong performance. In that game Penn State shot just 33 percent while the Cornhuskers shot 55 percent. The Lions were 3 for 24 from 3-point range and yet only lost by twelve. Penn State has been much more competitive than the record indicates and this will be a tough follow-up game for Minnesota.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Baltimore/ Houston Over 36: Houston road games have averaged 44.1 ppg on the year, while Baltimore's home games have averaged 42.3 ppg. Down the stretch Houston had some problems scoring, but they have seem to put it together of late as they have averaged 26.5 ppg in their last 2 games. Houston has a strong running game, but they will have to open up the play book and throw the ball vs this Ravens defense that has struggled a little down the stretch, akllowing 213 ypg through the air. Flacco turned in his third straight season of 3,500 passing yards and 20 touchdowns, falling just 13 yards shy of his career high and he should have some success vs a Houston defense that was 3rd vs the pass on the year, but also struggled down the stretch, allowing 241.3 ypg in their last 3 games. Both teams will need to throw the ball to win this one, so i expect more balls in the as than normal as this one hits 40+ with ease.Let's also note that the OVER is 18-5 when Kubiak takes on a team with a winning record in the second half of the season as Coach of the Texans. This play has averaged 48.6 ppg.
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Play: Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh ended a skid with a big win in their last game, 4-1 over Florida. The Penguins have plenty of balance and muscle, No. 8 in the NHL in scoring, No. 5 in penalty killing and No. 10 in goals allowed. "It's a huge relief. It wasn't fun for anybody," goalie Marc-Andre Fleury said. "It got frustrating, but everybody stuck together. Our last game in Washington (1-0 loss) was a good game for a lot of guys, but we couldn't win that one." The Penguins are 40-13 in their last 53 vs. a team with a losing record. Pittsburgh is 15-6-3 when scoring first and has a great chance to do that again against a terrible Tampa Bay defense, ranked No. 30 in the league in goals allowed and No. 25 in penalty killing. Tampa Bay has dropped six in a row. The Lightning are 2-9 in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record and 0-5 in their last five games as an underdog. When these teams meet, the road team is 5-2 in the last seven meetings. Play the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Bryan Power
Indiana @ Ohio State
PICK: Ohio State -13
Big revenge spot for the Buckeyes + they're off a loss to boot. OSU went to Bloomington on New Year's Eve and lost to IU, 74-70 as five-point favorites. That was just their second loss of the year. The Bucks suffered their third last time out, falling at Illinois 79-74 as the Illini shot a remarkable 60% for the game. All three Ohio State losses this year have come out on the road. In Columbus, they're a perfect 13-0 SU with an average margin of victory by 26 PPG. Just ask Duke how hard it is to play here. It has been a remarkable resurgence for Tom Crean and Indiana this year, but they slipped up at home vs. Minnesota last time out, 77-74 as 9.5-point favorites, which is not a good sign here. Ohio State is 19-7 ATS playing w/ revenge for a SU loss as a favorite. They are also 5-1 ATS this year laying double digits at home.
Black Widow
1* Denver Nuggets -10.5
The Denver Nuggets have just been rolling at home this season. I like them to win by double-digits and cover this spread against a Utah Jazz team that just isn't the same on the road. Denver is 6-1 at home this season where they are scoring 105.4 points/game and shooting 50.8 percent from the floor. Utah is just 1-3 on the road, scoring a mere 87.0 points/game and getting outscored by a whopping 14.0 points/game. The Jazz are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games following a S.U. win. Utah is 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Denver is 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. win. The Nuggets are 17-4-2 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Denver and lay the points.
Red Dog Sports
Youngstown St / Butler Over 130
The over has won 7 of the last meetings. The last 4 at Butler have ended with 162, 145, 152 and 163 points. Y-State has 21 overs, 8 unders and a push in the last 30 on the road and 15 of their last 20 overall have gone over.
David Banks
Giants / Packers Over
One of the better 2011 regular season match-ups is set to have a rematch when Tom Coughlin and his New York Giants (10-7, 9-7-1 ATS) invade Lambeau Field looking to pull the upset against Mike McCarthys defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers (15-1, 11-5 ATS); the FOX Network will televise this one live on Sunday starting at 4:30 ET.
In taking care of business at home against the Dallas Cowboys in their final game of the regular season, the Giants punched their ticket into the second season and were granted a home game over Wild Card Weekend. After surrendering a safety to give Atlanta a 2-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter, New York went on to score the games next 24 points to pull out the commanding 24-2 home win and cover. The win was the teams third straight both straight up and against the closing number, and now they head back to the road where theyve been at their best all season long winning five of eight games both SU & ATS. The Giants currently possess the third longest odds to win Super Bowl XLVI (+1000), and once again find themselves faced with an uphill climb just to get there. However, thats something this franchise experienced back in 2008 when it won three games on the road before shocking the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.
The Green Bay Packers took the league by storm late last season when they ripped through their opposition en route to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy for the fourth time in franchise history after besting the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-25 in Super Bowl XLV. They were favored to pull a repeat performance in 2011-12, and Head Coach Mike McCarthys squad lived up to the billing winning all but one of their 16 regular season contests while posting a lucrative 11-5 record versus the closing pointspread. QB Aaron Rodgers had a season for the ages throwing for 4643 yards and a whopping 45 touchdowns to just six interceptions. In all, he was the ringleader of the leagues top scoring offense (35.0 PPG) and 3rd ranked passing attack (307.8 YPG). While the defense once again wreaked havoc on its opposition by forcing 24 turnovers, it hardly got pressure on opposing QBs averaging just 1.8 sacks per game (#29). Still, Green Bay went unblemished at home and beat their eight opponents by 18.8 PPG and beat the oddsmakers in seven of those contests.
These teams played to a thrilling 38-35 final at MetLife Stadium back in Week 13 in a game that went to the Packers. Since falling to the Giants at home in overtime in the 2008 NFC Championship Game, Green Bay has won each of the teams two meetings since, which includes the 45-17 whitewashing the last time NY paid a visit to The Frozen Tundra back in 2010. That said; the GMEN have covered each of the L/6 times they went off the board dogged in the playoffs, and the underdog has covered four of these teams L/5 overall confrontations. On the flipside, Green Bay has covered 17 of its L/23 home games and has conquered the closing number eight of the L/9 times it squared off against a +.500 opponent. The over has cashed each of the L/4 times these NFC rivals locked horns, and its also come in for total bettors the L/2 times these teams went after one another at Lambeau.
Real Animal
Utah Jazz +10.5
Sure the Jazz is unrested after destroying New Jersey last night (3* premium winner). But Utah has found their groove winning 6/7 with their only loss by three points in overtime to the Lakers in a game they led by four in the extra session. The Jazz should be motivated after losing in this arena back on December 28th 117-100. But that came the day after their season-opener against the Lakers, a 96-71 blowout defeat. The difference is DEFENSE. Utah has allowed 94 or less in 6/7 leading to this turnaround. Denver is winning but they are giving up points in droves allowing 121, 115, and 104 points in three of their last four. Last night's victim New Jersey, scored 115 earlier this week in the mile high city. Since Utah's last defeat here, only one opponent has connected on 50 percent or more of their field goals against the Jazz defense. Meanwhile Denver has allowed opposing teams to connect on 51.8 percent or better in three of their last four all while committing 17 or more turnovers in three straight. Being careless with the rock and playing shabby defense eventually takes its toll and it generally happens against a quality opponent that plays tough defense. The Nuggets will never be more inflated either after knocking off Miami in impressive fashion on TNT this week. But let's remember the Heat have lost three straight on this road trip and are now 1-9 in their last 10 visits to Denver. Before December 28th, Utah had won two of the previous three meetings in this series with the only loss by two points. The Jazz is 14-4 ATS the last three years after allowing 42 percent or less field goal percentage in five consecutive games.
NHL Predictions
New York Rangers -125
The Rangers had a great performance in Toronto last night winning 3-0, giving them their 6th win in 7 games. The Rangers are now 28-10-4 on the season, and a solid 15-6-2 on the road. The Canadiens lost in shootout last night, and have just 3 wins in their last 13 games. Montreal is just 7-8-7 at home this year. Peter Budaj will get the start tonight, and he is just 1-4 on the season with a 2.81 GAA and .902 SV%. Henrik Lundqvust should be in net after a night off and he is 19-8-4 on the year with a 1.89 GAA and .937 SV%. Take note that New York is 4-0 in their last 4 road games, 7-0 in their last 7 as a road favorite, and a stellar 25-8 in their last 33 overall. Although New York hasn't had recent success against Montreal they are playing much better hockey than the Canadiens. Although they are on a back-to-back I look for the Rangers to come out hard tonight in front of their number one goalie. Take New York laying a bit of chalk.
Los Angeles Kings -129
No goalie has been announced for the Kings, but I am handicapping it thinking that they will start their back up Jonathan Bernier (if they start Quick that is even better for us). Bernier is 3-4-1 on the season with a 2.73 GAA and .895 SV%. The Kings are coming off a 4-1 win in Calgary last night and didn't have to travel far after a big win. The Oilers lost 5-0 at home on Friday night to the Ducks and have now lost 5 straight games and 8 of their last 9. Although the Oilers didn't have a game last night they did have their own team skills competition. Edmonton is really hurting from a handful of injuries to some key players, including rookie Ryan Nugen-Hopkins who had 35 points before separating his shoulder. Take note that the Oilers are just 2-5 in their last 7 home games. Although Edmonton took their only meeting this season the Kings have won 6 straight in Edmonton and 4 of their last 5 meetings overall. Again I'll lay a little bit of chalk on the road team as I expect Edmonton's struggles to continue.