Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 16, 2011

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Iowa Hawkeyes +10.5

Riding high following a big win over Purdue, the Golden Gophers are primed for a letdown. Iowa, meanwhile, will be out for blood following a very disappointing performance against Northwestern in its last game. As if that isn't enough motivation right there, the Hawkeyes will recall the 88-53 beating they were handed in Minnesota last season to fuel the fire. It is worth noting that plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, with a losing record on the season, are an impressive 55-27 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Hawkeyes are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss. The Golden Gophers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Iowa and the points.

John Ryan

Butler vs. Wright State
Play: Wright State

5* graded play on Wright State as they host Butler set to start at 7:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 66-33 ATS for 67% ATS winners since 1997. Play on a home team off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite facing an opponent after scoring 80 points or more in a win over a conference rival. The pace of game favors Wright State as well and the simulator shows that they will score between 67 and 74 points in this game. Wright State has been successful in this scoring range posting a 14-7 ATS mark over the past three years and 52-27 ATS mark since 1997. Wright State will be focused on the offensive end after tow straight disappointing games. Their last game was a loss to Valparaiso 71-60 and were installed as four point favorites. Wright State is 6-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or less two straight games over the last three seasons. Take Wright State.

Craig Trapp

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Los Angeles Lakers

Don't look now but the champion Lakers are rolling again winning 8 in a row straight up. Clippers are a young team that at times have looked great but many others have looked lost. Clippers play great for a few minutes but usually don't put whole game together. Lakers show off today with double digit win.

Carlo Campanella

Jets vs. Patriots
Play: Over 44½

New England has rolled through their opponents the final 8 weeks of the NFL season, posting an 8-0 SU record while scoring 31 points or more in ALL 8 of those victories. The Patriots averaged 37.4 points per game during that 8 game winning streak and those impressive offensive numbers came against 6 teams that made the Playoffs, including this Jets squad, which they defeated 45-3. New England's powerful offense has forced 13 of their 16 games to go "Over" the Total this season, and we're looking for the postseason to be no different, as these Jets have posted a 10-1 (Over/Under) record this year against defensive units allowing a 61% or better completion percentage.]

Bryan Leonard

Auburn vs. Mississippi State
Play: Auburn

The Auburn Tigers are in their preferred role today as an underdog. They are a perfect 3-0 catching points this year and 20-9 ATS the last three seasons. The Tigers have dropped two straight games including being blown out at Kentucky in their last game. But today they take a big step down in class when the face the struggling Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Why are the Bulldogs installed as a double digit favorite here? Surely they don't deserve it. Mississippi State is 1-5 in the role of favorite and 0-6 ATS on this court. They are coming off their biggest win of the season as they chocked in-state rival Mississippi as a double digit dog on the road on Thursday.

Over the last three seasons Auburn is 3-1 straight up against the Bulldogs with a perfect 3-0 spread mark. We have seen to reason to think that the Bulldogs are a vastly superior team and this line is one hell of a bargain.

Tom Stryker

Iowa vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota

Minnesota has experienced no trouble with Iowa posting four consecutive SU and ATS wins in this series. Off that monster victory at home over Purdue and with three surprising losses in their first five Big 10 battles, the Golden Gophers have no margin for error.

Iowa makes the trek to Williams Arena in a little bit of a tailspin. The Hawkeyes have dropped their last four conference games to Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue and Northwestern by an average of 14.3 points per game. The Big 10 road hasn't been kind to Iowa either. In their last 80 as a conference guest, the Hawkeyes have crash landed posting a dismal 17-63 SU and 32-47-1 ATS record including a woeful 3-14 SU and 5-12 ATS in this role checking in without momentum off two or more straight up losses.

In the Twin Cities, one thing that Minny has done is feasted on opponents that arrive off two or more blemishes posting a profitable 36-22-1 ATS record. With momentum off their own in this set entering off a SU and ATS victory, the Golden Gophers improve to a money-making 16-3 SU and 14-5 ATS including a nearly perfect 11-1 ATS in this role priced as a favorite of -8 or more!

Under the direction of first-year head coach Fran McCaffery, Iowa is going through some growing pains. The loss of starting guard Cully Payne (sports hernia) doesn't help either. Provided the Gophers hit their free-throws today (282-434 for .650 on the season), this best bet should be money in the bank. Take Minnesota.

Tom Freese

Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: San Antonio Spurs

Denver is 23-16 straight up this year. The Nuggets are 7-19-2 ATS their last 28 road games and they are 4-12-2 ATS their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are 5-16-5 ATS their last 26 games off a straight up win. San Antonio is 34-6 straight up this year. The Spurs are 21-8 ATS their last 29 games off a win by more than 10 points. The Spurs are 8-3 ATS their last 11 games. San Antonio is 12-4 ATS vs. NBA Northwest teams. The Spurs are 5-1 ATS on Sunday and they are 5-2 ATS when playing with on day of rest.

Jack Jones

West Virginia -2.5

The Purdue Boilermakers will try to become the first non-conference opponent to leave Morgantown with a victory since LSU won 71-68 in overtime on Nov. 26, 2005. I don't see it happening as the West Virginia Mountaineers simply don't lose at home to non-conference foes. They just throttled Providence in their last home game, a 93-63 victory which improved WVU to 5-1 at home this season and 11-4 on the year. The Mountaineers are scoring 80.8 PPG on 48.2% shooting in Morgantown, while allowing 62.8 PPG and 38.4% shooting.

Both of Purdue's losses have come away from home this season. The Boilermakers were beaten last time out 67-70 at Minnesota and also lost to Richmond 54-65 on a neutral court. Their schedule really hasn't been very tough to this point as they have played a very soft Big Ten schedule, beating up on the bottom feeders in the conference. Purdue is 11-27 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. WVU is 34-14 ATS in home games off a home win since 1997. Bet West Virginia Sunday.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Washington Huskies -7

Washington will be out for blood after seeing its 6-game win streak come to an end with an upset loss at Stanford a few days ago. Taking the Huskies off an ATS loss has been a great investment. In fact, Washington is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games following an ATS defeat. The Huskies are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. the Pacific-10, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. The Golden Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 5-18 ATS in their last 23 games as a home underdog. Cal is also 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Take Washington.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Georgia Tech +6

The Yellow Jackets have given the Tar Heels plenty of trouble in recent years. In fact, they have won 3 straight in the series. Tech always seems to play the Heels tough at home and they will be extremely motivated this evening after 3 straight defeats, including an embarrassing one at Clemson in its last game. The Tar Heels are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Georgia Tech. The Heels are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 overall meetings and the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. UNC is so constantly overvalued in league play that it is just 6-21 ATS in its last 27 vs. the ACC. Under coach Hewitt, Tech is 15-4 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less. Take the points.

Info Plays

3* Clippers +6

Reasons why Clippers will cover:

1) Play against - any team (Lakers) - after 6 or more consecutive wins, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days, as its 90-51 over the last 5 seasons.

2) Clippers are 11-1 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

3) Clippers are 15-7 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Ben Burns

ancouver Canucks @ Minnesota Wild
PICK: Minnesota Wild

The Canucks are a good team and they're on a great run. I feel they're a little over-valued here though.

These teams have faced each other twice this season. The Canucks won 5-1 at Vancouver. However, the Wild won 6-2 when the teams faced each other here at Minnesota. Note that the Canucks were laying -135 for that game. They're favored by considerably more here.

Note that the Canucks are playing the fourth game of a 5-game road trip. They're 2-3 (-1.6) the last five times that they'd played three straight on the road.

The Wild should be extremely motivated here. Not only are the Canucks the top team in their division, but they're also trying to snap a 3-game losing streak.

The Wild, who lost 4-1 vs. Colorado on Friday, are a profitable 42-32 (+12.5) the last 74 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. During that stretch, they were also a lucrative 124-100 (+34.8) after scoring one goal or less in their previous game.

Looking for a large underdog with a real shot at an upset? Consider the Wild on the moneyline.

David Chan

L.A. Lakers @ L.A. Clippers
PICK: L.A. Clippers

The Clippers nearly pulled the upset when these teams met previously this season. You may recall that one. The Lakers won 87-86.

The Clippers are an even better team now. They've won three straight on this floor and believe this afternoon's game offers a chance to finally defeat their crosstown "rivals."

The Clippers' 3-game home winning streak is quite impressive. They beat Denver by 13 and Golden State by 14. In their last game here, they beat Miami - the Heat had won nine in a row.

The Clippers are 15-7 at the betting window this season, versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game. Lets grab the points.

Teddy Covers

Missouri State @ Bradley
PICK: Missouri State

Bradley head coach Jim Les couldn’t have been more enthusiastic with his praise of senior leader, combo guard Sam Maniscalco. “He’s the consummate winner. He’s going to do whatever it takes and compete as hard as anyone I’ve ever coached to try to help us win. That’s his only motivation…He’s the leader and the heart and soul of this team.”

Maniscalco ripped up his ankle in November. Bradley opened the season 4-0 with him on the floor, including an impressive upset win over USC in the Hall of Fame Tip-off back in November. Since that time, the Braves are 2-11 SU, 3-9 ATS. Their home court edge has been virtually non-existent, suffering losses in Peoria to Indiana State, Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Utah, and Eastern Illinois.

Maniscalco was absolutely the guy that the Braves relied on late in close games; the kid with ice water running through his veins during crunch time. Without him, they’ve lost every close game, including four consecutive defeats by eight points or less in Missouri Valley play; the type of losses that turn a bad season into an unmitigated disaster.

While Bradley is falling apart, Missouri St is crushing teams and winning by margin on the highway. They’ve already notched SU and ATS wins on the road against MVC heavyweights Wichita State, Creighton and Northern Iowa – the three other ‘contenders’ in the conference. When Cuonzo Martin’s deep team has faced off against lesser competition, they’ve absolutely dominated; notching double digit wins against Southern Illinois, Evansville, Illinois State, St Louis, Central Arkansas, Arkansas – Little Rock, Pacific, Oral Roberts and Pepperdine.

Missouri State has a nice track record thusfar; cashing at a 70% clip as chalk this season, including a 4-2 mark laying double digits like they are tonight. The Bears enjoyed a 19 point win over Bradley with a healthy Maniscalco last year; absolutely running them out of the gym. Expect more of the same today. 2* Take Missouri State.