Larry Ness
L.A. Lakers @ L.A. Clippers
PICK: L.A. Clippers
The Clippers were denied their first four-game win streak in three seasons when they lost 122-112 Friday night in Oakland to the Warriors but note that they have won EIGHT of 12 with Eric Gordon and Blake Griffin leading the way. Gordon's scored at least 25 points in four consecutive games and has averaged 23.7 PPG with 4.5 APG. Griffin enters this "home game” with a team-record 25 consecutive double-doubles, averaging 22.0 PPG and 12.7 RPG on the year. However, the Clippers will face a Lakers team which has won seven in a row, ending some of the ‘whispers' the two-time defending champs were beginning to hear. The Lakers have outscored opponents by an average of 18.2 PPG during their current winning streak but note that their seven straight wins have come over a grueling 11-day stretch. The schedule doesn't get any easier either, as this game begins a stretch in which the Lakers will play four games in the next five days! Bynum's return to health has been HUGE for the defending champs but I'm still willing to take the points with the Clippers in this one. After winning nine straight over the Clippers, the Lakers have only split the past four matchups with their co-tenants. That includes the lone meeting this year between the two teams. Back on Dec 8, the Clippers held a five-point lead over the Lakers with just 1:14 but found a way to lose fell 87-86 on Derek Fisher’s buzzer-beating layup. However, that was THEN (game came during a 5-21 start for the Clippers) and this is NOW (Clipps have won EIGHT of 12). Take the "home" dog!
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO –10 over Seattle
Never thought we’d be endorsing a double-digit favorite so fervently but voila, here it is. Two weeks ago, the entire betting public was all over the St. Louis Rams as a 3-point favorite in Seattle. That’s right, the Rams! Last week, sportsbooks had to lobby for Seahawks money, despite being offered 10 points or better with Seattle as hosts to the Saints. Lo and behold, the Seachickens win both games and suddenly they are Cinderella darlings? Give us a break. This is not Qwest field. The Bears are not a team decimated by injuries. Chicago’s defense is not a leaky unit that exposes itself to big plays. In fact, the Bears own the 2nd best run defense and 4th stingiest points allowed in the league. To put the latter into perspective, seven of the eight teams playing this weekend, are tops in points allowed. The Seahawks are 25th. In a league of 32 teams, Seattle was 27th on offense and 28th on defense. Okay, let’s say you’re delusional and you’re thinking that Seattle can lose the game but because of the large number, you can still get a cover? Well, think again. In the Seahawk’s nine losses, 15 points was the slimmest margin of defeat! That’s unfathomable. QB Matt Hasselbeck had the game of his life last week. Don’t expect lightning to strike twice. Hasselbeck has the mobility of a fire hydrant and with the likes of Julius Peppers, Israel Idonije, Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs chasing him around, this is going to be a very unpleasant end to a peculiar season. Bears roll. Play: Chicago –10 (Risking 2.1 units).
NEW ENGLAND –8½ over N.Y. Jets
Rex Ryan couldn’t hold Bill Belichick’s hoodie. Maybe Ryan’s jibberish is just a tactic to divert heat off his players but this is not the coach or the team you want to be mouthing off to. The Patriots were the league’s best team this season. Maybe not from the start but its how you finish that counts. New England scored 31 or more points in each of its final eight games. The Steelers, Jets, Bears and Packers were defenders included in that set. Some may point out that the Jets own the 3rd best defense in the league. Tell that to the 45-3 result played here approximately six weeks ago between these two. Others may point out that New England gives up a lot of yardage at 366 per game, ranking them 25th in the league. That may be true but those numbers may be skewed as much of the yardage given up was garbage yards when the Pats had games well in hand. Despite the generous yards allowed, the Patriots still finished amongst leaders in points allowed, permitting just one point per game more than these visiting Jets. The Pats average 10 points more per game on offense. It helps that Jets QB Mark Sanchez scares no one. Sanchez is the shameful owner of a 54.8 pass completion percentage, landing him 29th in the league, ahead of only Carolina’s Jimmy Clausen and Arizona’s Derek Anderson. The Belichick/Brady combo appear to be having as much fun and success as ever with this unlikely cast. After being embarrassed on this field in last year’s playoffs, expect the Jets to be muzzled both on and off the field when this one is all said and done. Play: New England –8½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa +1.83 over WASHINGTON
Note the 3:00 PM EST start. The Caps continue to struggle and frankly, there does not seem to be an end in sight. Watching this team play and comparing them to years past is like night and day. The Caps have no life in them. Alex Ovechkin is either burned out, fed up or both. The Caps have two power play goals over their last 32 chances and they’re not scoring goals five-on-five either. Washington has lost 13 of its last 19 games and that 4-2 loss to Vancouver on Friday was an extremely flattering score to the Caps. They were badly outplayed by a vastly superior team. The Caps goaltending is rather inconsistent, the defense is below average and the offense has been held to three goals or less in nine straight games. Changes are needed in Washington and thus, Bruce Boudreau could be hanging by a thread. Ottawa is struggling too; make no mistake about that. However, unlike the Caps, they have fight in them. They’re playing hard and they’ll turn this thing around. The Sens most definitely have a shot at victory here, as any club would playing the Caps right now and that’s the basis for this wager. It’s more about taking back a sweet tag against this very fragile host. Play: Ottawa +1.83 (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia +1.11 over N.Y. RANGERS
The Flyers are too good to ignore in this spot and they also catch the Rangers in a very vulnerable spot. New York played in Montreal last night in an intense filled game and ended up losing 3-2. This will be the Rangers third game in four days and their sixth game in 10 days. The Blue Shirts have also played much better on the road than at MSG while the Flyers lead the NHL with 15 road wins. It also appears that Marty Biron will get the start for the Rangers, as they give Henrik Lundqvist a day off and that can’t hurt our chances. Philly has won six of its last seven with only loss over that stretch against Boston in what can be termed a bizarre game indeed. The Bruins had two completely fluky goals and were down 5-4 with under six minutes to go before rallying to win it. In any case, any take-back here on the Flyers is outstanding value and the recommendation is to get on this one as early as possible. Play: Philadelphia +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
SOUTH FLORIDA –2 over Providence
Both these teams are in too tough in the Big East to make any noise and both come in with a 0-5 Conference record. The Bulls have dropped seven in a row and nine of 10 but don’t put a lot of weight on that. USF has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation and they also played a very difficult out-of-conference schedule. A close look reveals South Florida’s non-conference schedule included games against Southern Miss, BYU, UCF, Cleveland St., and Texas Tech. Incidentally, they lost in double OT to BYU, they beat Tech and they lost by just six to Central Florida. In the Big East, USF lost at #4 UConn, also in OT and then had to play Villanova, Louisville and Cincinnati. Now they’ll play the talented but inexperience Friars. Providence will play its third straight on the road and that’s so tough at this level. They were blown out at West Virginia on Thursday by 30 and that could be a difficult game to bounce back from. The Friars feature two freshmen and three sophomores in its top six players and while they show a ton of promise and could fly under the radar, this is not the best matchup for them. The Bulls are tall and pose a huge problem inside with 6”11’ Jarrid Famous and 6’’10” Augustus Gilchrist. Gilchrist is fifth in the Big East in rebounding and is one of the best big men in the land. Anthony Crater has stabilized a young backcourt. This home game for the Bulls is one they’re going to take very seriously and they catch the Friars off a psychologically damaging game and third road game in succession. Play: South Florida –2 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Butler –4½ over WRIGHT ST.
Not customary for us to lay road points in college but this is truly a mismatch that favors the undervalued Bulldogs. Butler is undervalued because of a rough 4-4 start that saw them get whacked by Louisville and lose to Evansville. More recently the Bulldogs also have an ugly 24-point loss to Milwaukee and that’s tough to get out of one’s mind. However, it was also a good lesson to not take anyone lightly and that game seemed to have awakened a sleeping dog. Butler subsequently reeled off three in a row, two of them by 23 points and this is still one of the best teams in the land that lost its top 25 ranking. They have several starters back from last year’s squad that went up against Duke in the National Championship game and they’re still one of the best defensive clubs in the nation and one of three teams in the country to have won at least 25 games in each of the last four years. They’ve already lost one conference game but may not lose another and especially not against this host. The Raiders are 11-7 and 4-2 in the conference but they’ve played every marshmallow in the land including an 11-point loss to Detroit, a team the Bulldogs just beat by 23. WSU is small, they can’t get a rebound if their life depended on it and they’re extremely challenged offensively. Frankly, we can’t envision for a second how they’re going to compete here against a hugely superior and more focused Bulldogs squad. Play: Butler –4½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Bryan Leonard
Auburn at Mississippi State
The Auburn Tigers are in their preferred role today as an underdog. They are a perfect 3-0 catching points this year and 20-9 ATS the last three seasons. The Tigers have dropped two straight games including being blown out at Kentucky in their last game. But today they take a big step down in class when the face the struggling Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Why are the Bulldogs installed as a double digit favorite here? Surely they don't deserve it. Mississippi State is 1-5 in the role of favorite and 0-6 ATS on this court. They are coming off their biggest win of the season as they chocked in-state rival Mississippi as a double digit dog on the road on Thursday.
Over the last three seasons Auburn is 3-1 straight up against the Bulldogs with a perfect 3-0 spread mark. We have seen to reason to think that the Bulldogs are a vastly superior team and this line is one hell of a bargain.