AC Dinero
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -6.5
AFC Divisional Game Pitt comes in a bit banged up after that hard fought wildcard game against division foe Cincinnati. QB Ben Rothlisberger looks like he will play, though not likely at 100% with the injury to theshoulder. WR Antonio Brown looks like he will be out with a concussion. The Steelers will need to outscore teams if they hope to keep on advancing since they tend to give up big plays in the passing game. They aren't the best 3rd down team in the field, which usually spells defeat at some point. They go up against arguably the best defense in the field, who will also have an extra week of rest. The good news for Pitt is that Denver, along with QB Peyton Manning, like to turn into pumkins at this time of year. Still, it's hard to back the Steelers with the injury issues on offense. I like Denver by at least a TD
Marc Lawrence
Seahawks vs. Panthers
Play: Under 44
Edges - Panthers: 1-4 UNDER in this series with O/U total o f42 or more points. Seahawks: 0-5 UNDER last five overall games. With Carolina having held 3 of its last 7 foes to season low yards, and Seattle having held 7 opponents to season low yards this season, we recommend a 1* play in the UNDER total in this game.
Big Al
Pittsburgh vs. Denver
Pick: Denver
These two teams met four weeks ago, in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers came away with a comeback, 34-27 victory. But you know what they say about paybacks! And since 1980, in the NFL Playoffs, teams playing with revenge from a loss in which they gave up 28 or more points are 56-37 ATS, including 22-3 ATS if our revenger lost against the spread in its previous game. And the Broncos, indeed, did fail to cover their final regular season game vs. San Diego, as they won by just seven, as a double-digit favorite. That’s one reason I favor Denver in this game. Another is that this will be Pittsburgh’s 4th straight road game, as they’ve played at Baltimore, Cleveland and Cincinnati in their last three games. Unfortunately for the Steelers, road teams that played their previous two games on the road have covered just 19 of 55 in the Playoffs since 1980, including 4 of 23 when priced from +5.5 to +9.5 points. Finally, Denver won, but didn’t cover either of its last two regular season games vs. the Bengals and Chargers, which were both at home. But the good news for Denver is that home favorites, off back to back pointspread losses as a home favorite, are 23-9 ATS since 1980, including 5-1 in the Playoffs.
Will Rogers
Seattle at Carolina
Prediction: Under
Reason: The Seattle Seahawks were given a gift when Blair Walsh missed what should have been a game winning field goal last Sunday in Minnesota. They are facing a daunting task on the road at Carolina this Sunday, in a game between two of the NFL's top defenses. I expect to see a low scoring game in Carolina, and my money is on the under.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Quarterbacks - Russell Wilson was on a roll at the end of the regular season, but he was held in check against the Vikings last Sunday. He threw for just 142 yards with a TD and an INT on 13-of-26 passing. Cam Newton was the hero in the last meeting between these two teams, but he was also picked off twice while throwing for 269 yards and a TD.
2. Previous History - Seattle has gone under in five of it's last six road games, and the Seahawks haven't reach the total in each of their last five overall.
Sam Martin
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Prediction: Carolina Panthers
Panthers finished the regular season with a near-perfect 15-1 straight up record, but still aren't getting respect from the linesmakers and are listed as a small favorite on Sunday at home against Seattle. Panthers were a big seven-point underdog the first time these teams faced each other (in Seattle), but the Panthers were able to play "their game" - putting up 135 yards rushing and winning outright by four points.
That 135 yards rushing was the most Seattle has given up this season, and when the Seahawks allow at least 100 yards rushing this year they have not done well. Seattle has given up at least 100 yards on the ground six times this year, losing five of those games with the sixth occurrence coming in a one-point win against Dallas. More importantly, Seattle did not cover the spread once in those six games. With Carolina reaching triple-digits in rushing in all 16 games this year, and averaging 145 yards on the ground here at home, we have to lay the small number with the Panthers on Sunday.
Randall the Handle
Seahawks (11-6) at Panthers (15-1)
It could be a mistake to fade a 15-1, rested home team here. There is no question that the Panthers have the ability to earn a trip to the NFC final by winning this one. But given the choice, we’d rather stick with the blue chip Seahawks over a less proven commodity. Take quarterback for instance. Seattle’s Russell Wilson has seven playoff victories in his short four-year career. He’s as resilient as they come. While Cam Newton has had an MVP caliber season, his only post-season win was last year in a wild-card game against the Ryan Lindley-led Cardinals. That victory led to a showdown with these Seahawks, which ended with a 31-17 win for Seattle. Incidentally, the spread for that game one year ago had the host ’Hawks as a 13½-point choice over its visitor. While Carolina was able to avenge that loss during a trip to the northwest this season, oddsmakers still had Seattle as a seven-point favourite for that one. While we understand Carolina being chalk on this day, a 9½-point swing from that earlier encounter is a bit too rich for our blood. Seattle may not have running back Marshawn Lynch for this one but absences in the Seahawks’ backfield has only allowed for Wilson to unbridle his throwing skills and the results have been eye-opening. Of greater concern, and most playoff games, is defence. That being the case, Seattle holds a significant edge. Not only did Seattle allow the fewest points in the league this season, they bring a healthy unit to these playoffs. The same cannot be said of Carolina, who will enter this one with deficiencies at their corners where the loss of both Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere forced the Panthers to sign two players recently who were sitting at home doing nothing. Both Robert McClain and Courtland Finnegan are essential components in slowing down this dangerous Seattle aerial game and that’s a tall order to fill. During the regular season, patchwork replacements may suffice but with the stakes much higher now, that becomes risky business. These two teams know each other well for non-divisional opponents and it sets up well for one of the more intriguing matchups of the weekend, one we‘d rather dab into with the big game product. TAKING: SEAHAWKS +2½
Steelers (11-6) at Broncos (12-4)
The Broncos should be sending thank-you cards to the Bengals this past week after Cincinnati players Jeremy Hill, Vontaze Burfict and Adam Jones all committed crucial errors in allowing Pittsburgh to steal a win and advance to this contest. In addition to the blunders, Cincinnati beat up the Steelers and now Pittsburgh limps in here with its best players questionable to play. None of it bodes well for the visitor. Even if QB Ben Roethlisberger is able to play, his hurting shoulder will limit his usual passing prowess. Not having top NFL receiver Antonio Brown makes a bad situation even worse. Just to add fuel to this fire, inferno might be more like it, the disabled Pittsburgh offence will line up against the league’s best defensive unit. Denver ranks No. 1 overall while being tops against the pass, third against the run and fourth in points allowed. Perhaps the biggest concern will be Denver’s pass rush as it too was atop the NFL with 52 sacks. Sensing a wounded target, the Broncos figure to unleash a relentless attack on their prey. Meanwhile, the experienced arm of Broncos QB Peyton Manning will get to work on a Pittsburgh defence that allowed an alarming 291 yards per game, ranking 30th in a league of 32. When the two teams hooked up for a late December contest, Pittsburgh emerged with a 34-27 win after breaking a 27-27 deadlock with three minutes to play. That game saw Ben throw for 380 yards and three touchdowns with Antonio Brown accounting for 189 of them and a pair of TD’s. Denver’s offensive players tend to get overlooked but wide receivers Demaryious Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are a capable duo that combined for 2,439 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns while runners Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson finished strongly to combine for 1,583 yards on the ground, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. The Pittsburgh injuries are an obvious and simple angle to choosing a side here but that doesn’t mean it should be avoided. Last week’s street fight takes its toll here. TAKING: BRONCOS –7
Xander Locke
Seahawks vs. Panthers
Play: Under 44
There are a number of reasons why this will be a low scoring game. First of all, the Seahawks are ranked #1 in the NFL in points against at 17.3 per game. Although, during their last five games Seattle has only allowed an average of just under 12 points per game. Carolina is ranked 6th in the NFL in points against at 19.3 per game. Plus, Carolina will be rusty after having two weeks off. On the other hand Seattle is wore out from their battle with Minnesota in the freezing cold. This total won't go over 40 points.
Tony George
Steelers vs. Broncos
Play: Broncos -7½
The publics love of the Steelers from a betting perspective, puts this line currently at -7 at -120 with Denver as a home favorite, in Krystal Clear light for anyone who knows sports betting. The public loves to bet the Steelers in any circumstance and oddsmakers in Vegas know they are going to get Steelers money no matter what, and they still gave them 7 points on Sunday. To be honest that will not be enough based on the injury report and injury news out of Pittsburgh this week.
The only 2 reasons why the Steelers are still playing is number one, the Bengals gave the game away last week by losing their poise and cool, and the other reason is Big Ben and Antonio Brown are out or injured. Well, Brown is not playing with a concussion as ruled out by the medical staff on Friday, and Big Ben has a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder, and knowing a little about that injury myself after some research, any 30 yard long or shorter passes with any zip on them are going to be few and far between. I also can assure you backup QB Jones is very involved in the game planning as Big Ben will not make it the full game no matter how much painkiller they pump in him.
Did I mention #18 for the Bronco’s is playing this Sunday, and is well rested? While Manning’s Playoff record of losing 9 times in the first round of the playoffs is well documented, I doubt he gets to double digits this weekend folks. The Denver defense is going to want to stuff the run and blitz the passer, especially if Big Ben is back there, they will be looking to bring the pain and get him out early. The Steelers are also without RB Williams, and while they did manage over 100 yards rushing last week, the Bronco’s will be looking for the run and looking to shut down the rushing attack and force them to throw into a great secondary.
I do not expect a lot of fireworks or scoring here but I do expect a Peyton Manning led Bronco’s team who is well rested playing a team in the altitude who is off a brutal game last week to prevail and win this by the margin. With a healthy Big Ben and Brown the narrative would be far different, but you cannot win on reputation alone and the lack of talent at skill positions of the Steelers in this game is huge.
Rob Vinciletti
Michigan +7½
The Wolverines catch Iowa off a huge win at Michigan St. Iowa is likely to flatten out here off that big win. Michigan has won 7 of the last 8 and 15 of the last 19 January games. They have covered 6 of 7 if the total is 140 to 150 and 3 of 4 in Conference. Iowa has failed to cover 15 of 20 at home if the total is 140 to 145. Look for Michigan to get the cash.
Xander Locke
Seahawks vs. Panthers
Play: Under 44
There are a number of reasons why this will be a low scoring game. First of all, the Seahawks are ranked #1 in the NFL in points against at 17.3 per game. Although, during their last five games Seattle has only allowed an average of just under 12 points per game. Carolina is ranked 6th in the NFL in points against at 19.3 per game. Plus, Carolina will be rusty after having two weeks off. On the other hand Seattle is wore out from their battle with Minnesota in the freezing cold. This total won't go over 40 points.
Ben Burns
Suns vs. Wolves
Play: Wolves -3
Minnesota gets a quick pit stop at home against the Phoenix Suns Sunday, bookended between road games. The Timberwolves will be looking to make the most of this home spot after dropping back-to-back games on the road which extended their losing skid to nine games – going just 2-7 ATS in that span. However, we see added value with them as hosts Sunday, especially against the Suns. Phoenix is one of the few Western Conference opponents in a worse spot that Minnesota. The Suns have one win in their last 13 games including some bad losses to the likes of the 76ers and Lakers. This game will conclude a three-game road trip for Phoenix, which is a NBA-worst 7-14 ATS away from home this season.
Teddy Covers
Pittsburgh vs. Denver
Pick: Denver
The Steelers are an absolute mess coming into this game, and they’re facing a Broncos team with a real chip on their shoulders on Sunday, bad news for the road underdog. To say that the Steelers have suffered a barrage of injuries at the wrong time is something of an understatement.
Pittsburgh has been forced to deal with injuries galore all year. The ongoing injury woes from one week to the next were problematic particularly when it comes to skill position talent. It’s a big part of the reason why the Steelers were so inconsistent this year, capable of stepping up with a dynamic performance one week but unable to sustain that level of effort for any extended stretches. The Steelers had one six game stretch with just about everybody on board, and they hung 30+ in all six of those games. In their 11 other games this year, Pittsburgh reached 30 only once, back in Week 2 against the 49ers.
Even with a relatively healthy Big Ben, the Steelers looked awful on offense in Week 16 against the Ravens. They followed that up with another shoddy offensive showing at Cleveland in Week 17, converting only two third downs , committing three turnovers and gaining a woeful 1.6 yards per carry on their 19 rush attempts. Last week’s win at Cincinnati was weather-affected, but once again, Pittsburgh couldn’t convert on third downs, just 2-13, and netted only one TD in four red zone tries. This is not an offense clicking on all cylinders even if they were healthy.
They’re not healthy, as banged up as they’ve been at any point this season. The Steelers are still without their top two running backs, with Le’Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams both ruled out. They’re without the single most unstoppable pass catching weapon in the NFL, WR Antonio Brown, out with a concussion. And two time Super Bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger is going to try to play with a separated shoulder.
Big Ben has been unable to practice all week. He couldn’t throw the ball downfield at all after hurting his shoulder against the Bengals. I’m sure he’ll get shot up with pain meds and give it a go, but I’m not expecting Big Ben to be effective against the #1 defense in the NFL. Behind Roethlisberger is third stringer Landry Jones. Jones came off the bench to help them beat Arizona back in mid-October. Since that game, he’s thrown one touchdown and five interceptions. Again, if he sees the field here, he’ll be going against the single best defense in the league.
The Steelers hung 34 on Denver when these two teams met in Week 15; a tale of two halves. Denver raced out to a 27-10 lead, but the Steelers grabbed momentum after halftime, scoring three unanswered TD’s to win by seven. Wade Phillips’ defense was embarrassed by that showing, a truly elite Super Bowl caliber stop unit that has saved Broncos backers from ruin on numerous occasions this year. Returning home to face a banged up ‘shell of the squad they were’ Pittsburgh offense is a prime recipe for defensive redemption in the ‘No Fly Zone’ in the Mile High air.
Denver rested Peyton Manning over the back half of the season to save him for one last postseason run, which starts here. In other words, he’s been getting prepped for this game for the better part of the last two months. Manning is going to get the headlines, but the real story here is the Broncos running game. Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson combined for more than 200 rushing yards in their last game, on the heels of their six yards per rush average against Cinci in their previous contest. If we see anything close to that level of run game production here, this game has legit blowout potential.
MMA OddsBreaker
Latifi v O'Connell
Pick: Over 1.5
Both Ilir Latifi and Sean O'Connell hit hard, so it's not a surprise that the round total for the fight is set at 1 1/2, but I expect both men to be a bit extra cautious early, with an extended feeling-out process until they get comfortable enough to throw down. Latifi has a better chin, but he hasn't picked up a really big win yet in the division due to his striking. Latifi also has the superior ground game and could pick up a finish on the canvas, but O'Connell is no slouch there either. A finish is definitely possible in this fight, but if it happens, I expect it to take place after the midway point of the bout.
DAVE COKIN
STEELERS AT BRONCOS
PLAY:: STEELERS +7.5
Okay, let’s get the analysis part of this out of the way quickly. The Steelers have been less than spectacular down the stretch, losing to a bad Ravens team, unimpressively getting past the pathetic Browns, and basically getting gifted a playoff win last week by a couple of mentally impaired Bengals.
The Broncos really haven’t been notably better of late. They actually came close to blowing the #1 AFC seed against the Chargers, and it’s not like this team has been sensational at all over the past month or so. The Denver defense is dynamite, no doubt about it. The offense isn’t and I’ll be shocked if the Steelers don’t commit to stopping the run and daring Peyton Manning to beat them through the air.
I don’t need to waste space on all the Pittsburgh injuries. They’re definitely hurting and yes, there has to be some real question about how well Ben Roethlisberger can throw the ball with the banged up shoulder. That said, if he can stay on the field for the entire game, Big Ben is not a guy I want to try and beat, especially by a margin.
I’m playing this on what I see as value. Even inputting all the absences from the Pittsburgh lineup, I can’t make this any higher than Broncos -6.5. Getting on the other side of a very key NFL number is also really enticing for me.
There’s one other aspect in play here that I like from the Pittsburgh perspective. The Steelers lost last week at Cincinnati, but they’re still playing. Oh, I know the scoreboard says they won and obviously, that’s why they are still playing. But considering the series of miracles this team had to get last week to survive, this amounts to the ultimate free roll for the Steelers.
If Ben Roethlisberger is unable to stay on the field and the Steelers have to turn to Landry Jones, I’m probably in trouble. If Peyton Manning suddenly relocates even a semblance of his Hall of Fame caliber past form, I’m probably in trouble. In other words, I can’t say I’m going to be stunned if the well-rested Broncos feast on their weary guests and win this with ease. But getting more than a TD is enough to get me to the window, and I’m going to grab those points with the Steelers.
Bruce Marshall
Michigan St. -6
Interim UW coach Greg Gard has been going Bo Ryan "old-school," with patient Badger tactics that are slowing the games as he campaigns for the full-time Madison assignment after the season. But not sure that will work, as Wiscy will have to scramble just to become NIT-eligible after Gard has lost 4 of his first 5 SU since taking over for his retired mentor. This is a nice revenge spot for Tom Izzo, who had trouble with Ryan's Frank Kaminsky-Sam Dekker lineups the past few seasons. MSU will be glad to slug it out, if that's what Gard prefers. And the Spartans are now back to full strength with star G Denzel Valentine having returned to active duty from his recent knee injury.