Scott Spreitzer
Creighton vs. DePaul
Play: Creighton -5
Creighton will match last year's conference win total with one more win and they'll enter this one 12-6 SU, overall. They're in their second year of a rebuilding project and while the Jays have improved a great deal over last year's ill-shooting squad, they will suffer growing pains from time-to-time. However, those pains will come against teams like Villanova and Providence, but I don't believe they'll slip-up against DePaul. The Blue Demons have struggled on the defensive end, allowing 76.6 ppg on 44% shooting during their current five-game skid. DePaul hasn't been getting to the FT line, averaging nine fewer attempts per game than their opponents during the losing streak and they're upside down in assist-turnover ratio, while allowing their opponents a 1.60 ratio. That'll fit the Jays well, who're carrying a 1.31 ratio over their last five games. Creighton enters on a 10-2 ATS run off a SU loss and they're on a 10-2-1 ATS run in conference action. Meanwhile, DePaul has covered just three of their last 12 at home. I believe the Jays will get back on track on the offensive end after a poor showing...some growing pains, if you will, last time out.
Tony Karpinski
Suns vs. Wolves
Play: Under 207
Markieff Morris has the left hand, the right hand, he has some great game down in the box. The big PF has been frustrated, but I expect him to do what he can do, to show the Suns that they have some talent here. I really like his game. Minnesota struggles shooting the ball and in particular from behind the arc. They aren't aggressive defensively, and they cannot make the plays when needed to stop the other team from getting into rhythm. The Under is 4-0 in the Suns last 4 Sunday games.
Heath Mac
Steelers vs. Broncos
Play: Under 41
A low total here that dropped a few points once it was confirmed that Antonio Brown was out. Big Ben is injured and obviously would not be playing if it was still a regular season game. Last week the Steelers were rolling until Ben got injured and it just got worse from there. Ben couldn’t throw anything further than 10 yards and rightly went off the field. However Landry Jones came on and made McCarron look like Tom Brady. The Steelers couldn’t get anything going and while we know that Landry has been heavily involved this week (as you would expect) and the offense will benefit from a week’s training, the fact is that the Steelers will now have no more than half of Ben and none of Angelo Williams or Antonio Brown. Throw in the fact that the Broncos secondary is ranked 1st in home yards allowed in the air, 5th in yards on the ground and 4th in overall points allowed and we’re wondering where the Steeler’s points are going to come from.
The Broncos come into this with revenge on their mind and will be eager to atone for previous year’s failures. The Broncos have transitioned from offensive powerhouse behind Peyton Manning to defensive juggernaut over the past couple of years. As age has caught up with Manning and the offense has been a victim of its success with players signing for big contracts with other teams, the secondary has improved to the point where the Broncos no longer need to put up big scores to win games. Just as well really, when they own the 19th ranked offense for ppg, 20th in home passing yards and 11th in home yards on the ground. The Steelers secondary has been solid all season and probably don’t get enough credit with the focus on their potent offense. The allow 19.9 ppg (ranked 11th) and allow just 89 ypg on the road (ranked 5th) with their main weakness being in the air. However with Peyton Manning scheduled to start after a month or so on the sidelines, we doubt he will come out and dominate. Don’t forget that before his injury, Manning was a shadow of his former self and was throwing picks on a level only seen by Bears fans (sorry Bears fans). The Broncos have put up 103 points in their last 5 games at just over 20 ppg – not great.
This game will be a defensive battle and we expect points to be at a premium. The Steelers were 6-10 O/U on the season while the Broncos were 6-8-2 O/U. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Pittsburgh's last 15 games. The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games on the road.
Mark Franco
Seahawks/Panthers Over 44
The sixth-seeded Seahawks now get a chance to avenge a regular-season home loss to the Panthers, who erased a 13-point, second-half deficit in a 27-23 victory at Seattle in Week 6.
Over is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 Divisional Playoffs games and is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 playoff games. Over is 8-3 in Seahawks last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 18-7-1 in Panthers last 26 vs. a team with a winning record and is 10-4-1 in Panthers last 15 games overall.
Broncos +7.5
Peyton Manning knows all too well that the playoffs present a one-and-done scenario. With nine defeats in his team's initial playoff game on his resume, the 39-year-old Manning isn't taking anything for granted heading into the AFC West-champion Denver Broncos' divisional-round clash with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
With a sprained AC joint and torn ligaments in his shoulder, Roethlisberger likely isn't going to throw the ball around with the same frequency (season-high 55 attempts) that he did in the first meeting with the Broncos. Now A. Brown and D. Williams are ruled out for the game.
Denver led the league in fewest passing yards allowed (199.6) while the Steelers ranked 30th (271.9). I’m laying the points with Denver against a banged up Steelers team.
Vegas Butcher
Pittsburgh / Denver Under 20 1st Half
The logic for this play is pretty straightforward. Everyone knows that Manning is one of the worst QB’s in the league this year, with limited arm-strength and inability to stretch the field vertically on a consistent basis. That’s the reason Denver’s pass-O ranks 25th in the league. Because of this, Denver MUST employ a run-heavy approach, even though they rank only 19th in run-efficiency. What people might NOT know though is that Steelers have the 8th best defense in the league (I profiled their D in detail last week). At the same time their run-D is ranked 5th, so while Denver will lean heavily on the ground game, I don’t expect them to be very efficient doing so.
On the other side, everyone knows that Denver has the BEST defense in the league. Of course the ‘unknown’ part is Pittsburgh’s offense, which ended the year ranking as 2nd best. Of course the Steelers offense we’ll see on the field will be different…possibly, significantly so. It’s not just that Pittsburgh will be without the best WR in the world (Antonio Brown), the best (arguably) RB in the world (Bell), and the best backup RB in the world (Williams), but the shoulder injury to Ben Roethlisberger (top-5 QB in the world) is probably an even significant issue. After he hurt it last week, he didn’t return to the game until the very end, and proceeded to be barely able to throw a bunch of very short passes. I know the reports are indicating that it’s a non-issue and that his strength is all the way back, but let’s remember, these reports are coming from Steelers’ players themselves, so I’d take them with a grain of salt. I don’t believe Roethlisberger will be 100% for this game, and missing a number of key offensive skill players doesn’t help either.
Overall, I would expect a very conservative approach by both teams in the early going. Both have very good defenses, and minimizing mistakes early while keeping the game close should be the focus early on. The O/U is now 2-7 in Steelers’ road games and 2-5 in Denver’s home games. I think we’ll see a low scoring game in this one. Things might open up a bit in the 2nd half, especially if either team has a two-score lead, which could lead not to just own scores, but potentially big mistakes resulting in TO’s. Roethlisberger likes to take chances especially when trying to come-back in games, and of course Manning has been one of the most TO-prone QB’s in the league. If either has to go to hurry up in the 2nd half to make a comeback, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big mistake or two leading to easy points for the opponent. To me, 1st Half Under is safer.
Power Sports
Oregon vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado
Playing a second road game in four days time is always a tough situation and for Oregon, off a SU dog win at Utah and now favored, things are tougher than usual. The Ducks visit Boulder Sunday night, to play a Colorado team that has been involved in a lot of close games lately. I'd recommend the home dog here. Take the pts.
The revenge factor is present here too for Colorado as they were beaten twice by Oregon last season, including in the Pac 12 Tournament. This will be the Buffs' third consecutive home game. After dropping the first, by two to Utah, they responded w/ a 17-pt win over Oregon State. They are now 9-1 SU at home this year w/ a diff of +17.5 points per game. I'm somewhat shocked that they're not being favored in this spot. Yes, they've lost four times, but three of those were by six points or less.
Oregon had not won on the road prior to upsetting Utah, so asking them to win B2B away games seems like a bit of a tall order. Earlier this year, the Ducks lost at both Boise State and Oregon State. It's a fine line between being a favorite or a dog here, but for the Ducks it's a huge difference. As a road dog of three points or less, they are a perfect 4-0 ATS the L3 seasons. As a road fave of three or less, they are 1-5 ATS. The discrepancy in field goal percentage was huge Thursday in Salt Lake City w/ Oregon shooting 54.9% overall and the Utes just 33.9%. I can't see such a thing happening again here.
Dave Essler
Drake +4
And here we have a team in Drake that shoots over 40% from behind the arc and is at home, where you'd expect them to shoot well, especially against a team that's much smaller. Drake will try to slow this game to a snails' pace (Southern wants to play faster). Southern could wipe the map with them, I suppose - but last year they played two very close games, Drake winning at home and losing by two on the road. SI is obviously a far better team THIS year - but I am still not sold on the fact that they haven't played anyone, as evidenced by the fact that when they DID (Witchita State) they were blown off the court. This is a CAPABLE Drake team, albeit young. They play Iowa to a six point game on a neutral court. Southern lost at home to SIU Edwardsville (who suck) - so the footprint is there. If Drake hits their three's and keeps this game in the 60's - they win SU.
Jim Feist
Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets
Pick: Indiana Pacers
The Pacers look to snap a two game losing streak here on Sunday at Denver. Indiana is 22-18 S/U and ATS this season, but has lost three of the last four games. The Pacers have the option to go to big lineup, with Lavoy Allen and CJ miles off the bench. This bigger lineup makes them one of the best defensive teams and was a big reason the club was 11-2 in November. The Pacers are on a West Coast road trip, and with the exception of the Warriors, they face teams that have losing records. Indiana will not be happy with less than a 2-2 road swing here and probably a 3-1 trip. Denver is just 14-26 on the season, but can be a scrappy bunch. The Nuggets gave the Warriors all they could handle last Wednesday, handing the Warriors just their third loss of the season at the time. However, after that big win, the Nuggets lost at home to Miami, 98-95 as a 1 1/2 point dog. The Nuggets have shown signs of excellent play at times, but those are few and far between. The Pacers big lineup can shutdown the Nuggets here on Sunday.
Marc David
Niagara vs. Manhattan
Play: Niagara +7
Niagara has won 2 of their last 3 games with 1 of those wins against this Manhattan team. They shoot well hitting 41% from the floor while scoring 63 points a game. They have played a road heavy schedule against some very good teams but have come up short in the win column. They play very good defense holding 8 teams to under 70 points and are very deep with 8 players getting at least 15 minutes a game. The Jaspers have lost 2 straight and in 1 game were held below 60 points and the other below 70. Of their 6 wins 3 of them were by 6 points or less. They don't rebound very well just 30 a game and have been outrebounded in 5 of their last 6 games. They have also been held to under 70 points in 9 games this season. This is a prohibitive favorite and an inflated line.
Alex Smart
Panthers vs. Lightning
Play: Lightning -141
Florida had their 12 game win streak ended last time out vs Vancouver losing 3-2 in OT and than followed that up with a 6-0 loss to Calgary. After playing at such a high level for so long, and than suddenly crashing, they will once again be a in letdown situation vs a side that would love nothing more than to extend a little more suffering on their opponents. Florida did sweep a home-and-home set in November against Tampa Bay, but both contests were closely contested and could easily have gone the other way. Now with the added incentive of revenge on board I expect TB will primed to get the victory behind goalie Ben Bishop who is 6-1-1 with a 2.17 goals-against average in eight starts against the Panthers. Note: The Bolts have won 4 of their L/5 at home in this series.
Jack Jones
Denver Broncos -7
The Steelers are an absolute mess right now. Ben Roethlisberger has a sprain and torn ligaments in his shoulder. Yes, after being knocked out from the game against the Bengals, he was able to return and guide the game-winning drive. However, he told his coaches not to call any deep passes, so even if he plays his arm strength is sure to be limited. The Broncos will be able to press receivers on the outside without worrying about them beating them deep.
Antonio Brown is under the NFL’s concussion protocol and has been ruled out. He suffered the head injury on the game-winning drive where Vontaze Burfict was flagged for a hit to his head. Also, DeAngelo Williams missed last week against the Bengals and has been ruled out this week as well.
The Broncos are as healthy right now as they've been all season. They are going to be out for revenge from a 27-34 loss at Pittsburgh in Week 15. They blew a 27-10 lead in that game as they failed to score a single point after intermission. The difference is that Brock Osweiler is no longer going to be holding them back.
Indeed, Osweiler was replaced by Peyton Manning in the regular season finale in the second half. Manning didn’t have to do anything special, but he did lead the Broncos on scoring drives in four of his five possessions. The ground game really got going as the Broncos rushed for 210 yards as a team, and they put up 503 total yards of offense for the game in a 27-20 win over the Chargers.
This just has a special feeling about it that Manning is not going to go out quietly. He says he is feeling as close to 100 percent as he has all season, and I think that extra week off with the bye is going to do him wonders. The good news is he’s not going to be asked to do too much because the Broncos already have a very good running game. He also has the benefit of having the best defense in the NFL on his side.
The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in total defense at 283.1 yards per game allowed this season. This unit is going to make life very difficult for the banged-up Pittsburgh offense. The Broncos have a fierce pass rush that is going to be hounding Roethlisberger all game. And with his limited arm strength, he simply has the chips stacked against him. If they go to Landry Jones, that will benefit the Broncos even more.
Denver is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest. The Broncos are 7-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games coming in over the last three seasons. Denver is 52-33 ATS in its last 75 home games vs. teams with winning records. The Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings with Denver.
SPORTS WAGERS
CAROLINA -2½ over Seattle
Over here, we’re all about finding value in the numbers as oppose to breaking down the X’s and O’s. We’re all about over and under-reactions, public perceptions and market tendencies. We can take all those factors and apply it to this game here. Last season, Seattle went 13-3 and hosted Carolina in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The Seahawks closed as a 13½-point choice and ended up winning 31-17 and covering the number in the process. However, that game was 14-10 in favor of the Seahawks going to the fourth quarter. Most would have sold their bet for 20 cents on the dollar at that point because it looked like an upset was in the making. By some miracle, Seattle scored two TD’s inside of six minutes left and those that backed the Seahawks got a gift that they have forgotten about. Well, this year the venue switches, the Seahawks are worse and the Panthers are much better. Carolina now comes into this game after a 15-1 season and if the roles were reversed, that being Seattle being 15-1 and hosting this playoff game, the oddsmakers would have been forced to make Seattle at least a 7-point choice.
Much is being made about the Seahawks defense over the past six weeks so let’s have a closer look at that. Seattle held five of the last six teams they faced to nine points or fewer. You’ll have to excuse us while we crap in our pants in awe of that defense. The five teams they faced were Minnesota, Cleveland, Baltimore (minus Flacco), a completely disinterested Arizona squad in the final week of the season and finally Minnesota again last week in frigid temperatures. Right in the middle of those games, Seattle faced an anemic St. Louis offense and surrendered 23 points in a six-point loss. Prior to that, Seattle was torched for a combined 69 points by Pittsburgh and Arizona. We’re not saying that the Seahawks defense is poor but we are saying the media is overplaying a lot of grossly skewed numbers and because if it, all we have to spot is 2½ points.
Carolina went 8-0 at home. In their last four home games, the Panthers scored 37, 44, 38 and 38 points respectively. That came against Green Bay, Washington, Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Yeah, we know you’re thinking those numbers are skewed also and they probably are. The difference, however, is that the market gives all the credit in the world to the Seahawks for skewed defensive numbers and none to the Panthers for skewed offensive numbers. In other words, those skewed numbers get applied to the Panthers but not to the Seahawks.
The knock on Carolina was that it couldn't beat a physical, downhill team, couldn't win a big game away from Bank of America Stadium and couldn't conquer the postseason. Big wins all season both at home and on the road have slewed those demons and now they have one more to slew with that being a post-season win. From our view, Carolina has been the better team all season long. They were on the verge of defeating the Seahawks last year in Seattle in the playoffs and so they have paid their dues. It’s time to recognize that Cam Newton is as good as any QB in the league and superior to Russell Wilson. If Newton doesn’t get you with his arm, he’ll get you with his feet. We won't deny that this game could go either way, as it’s football and strange things that no crystal ball in the world can predict might occur. However, if we’re sticking to playing value, then the right bet here is the home team spotting 2½ points because of all the factors mentioned above. This market loves the Seahawks to pieces and we’ll attempt to take advantage of that.
DENVER -7½ over Pittsburgh
There are just too many things that could go wrong for the Steelers here. For one, Ben Roethlisberger could get knocked out at any time and if that should come to pass, or if he gets knocked out early, the Steelers getting 7 or 7½ doesn’t have any appeal whatsoever. Roethlisberger was limited this week but turned in a full day of practice on Friday and will play despite the torn ligaments in his shoulder. Both Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams remain out this week and that has a tremendous impact. One hit to the shoulder and it’s game over for Big Ben. What that means is rushed passes that he normally would have held onto for another half second or more, which usually results in some picks. Roethlisberger suffered torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder along with a sprained AC joint last week but is still expected to play. His ability to throw deep will be impacted and his accuracy may also suffer. There are so many “ifs” involved in pulling the trigger on the Steelers and it’s something we want no part of.
Peyton Manning returning puts a new slant on this game. Manning hasn't started a game in two months and was a turnover machine in the first half of the season. How Manning plays is anyone’s guess but we wouldn’t put it by him to come up with a monster game. This is likely Manning’s final hurrah. He does not want to go out like a lamb. He’s been humiliated on the field and that’s not how he wants to leave this game. We all saw the fire in Tom Brady’s belly on the sidelines yesterday. That is one of the things that make Brady great. Peyton Manning has that same fire and maybe even more. Manning probably has spent the past two months dissecting films to the ninth degree and practicing even harder. He has been dreaming about this moment since being replaced by Brock Osweiler and we trust him to respond. In the unlikely event that Manning is awful, the Broncos at least have a backup plan while the Steelers plan B is an ugly one.
We are completely unimpressed with the Steelers defense and you can double those sentiments when this team hits the road. We’re also not impressed with the Steelers last three weeks of results. They got extremely fortunate last week on a fumble recovery that happens at that point of a playoff game about once every decade. If Cincinnati holds onto the ball there, the Steelers would be watching this game from the rail. In Pittsburgh’s other two games, they lost to Baltimore in a critical game as an 11-point favorite and the very next week in another critical game, the Brownies had them sweating and scoreboard watching. Had the Jets defeated Buffalo in the final week of the season, again, Pitt would be watching from the rail. Much has gone right for Pittsburgh and at some point they will no longer be able to rely on somebody else to advance. They can’t rely on themselves, that’s already proven and so we’re not about to rely on them either.
Brad Wilton
Deja Vu all over again as Seattle and Carolina get reacquainted for the divisional round of the postseason.
As we all know, Seattle was the 31-17 winner at CenturyLink Field last January, but this time around it is Seattle that has had to play the extra round, and Seattle also must play it on the road!
The Seahawks survived - but just barely - at Minnesota in frigid temps, but now they must head further east this weekend, and are playing again at 10 am pacific time. Very tough for any team to do, that is for sure.
Carolina went 8-0 straight up at home this year, and they did go 6-2 against the spread at Bank of America Stadium as well. Seattle meanwhile went 0-1-1 this season as the underdog - both on the road, and they did blow a 13-point lead back on October 18th at home to Carolina in a 23-27 loss as the -7 point favorite.
Odds stacked this time around for the Seahawks, and I am sorry, but they should not be playing this weekend. I sure hope Pete Carroll sent Blair Walsh a gift-package after missing his 27-yard field goal that would have ended the Seahawks season.
Today that season does come to an end.
Carolina by a touchdown.
2* CAROLINA
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Broncos over the Steelers.
It's not that I am a big believer in Peyton Manning in the twilight of his career, it's more that I am a big believer that the Denver defense on their home field will be able to impose their will on the injured Pittsburgh offense.
I have serious doubts that Ben Roethlisberger is healed enough to make the throws needed to beat the Broncos today, and I know damn well that the Steelers lack of a running game will make defensive coordinator Wade Phillips' job that much easier. Toss in the fact that Antonio Brown is also not at 100%, and the Broncos defense will be the most important weapon on the field in the Mile High City this afternoon.
This is a rematch from their December 20th meeting in Pittsburgh that saw the Steelers rally from 27-13 down at the half in their 34-27 comeback, but make no mistake, if Landry Jones is pressed into duty because Big Ben's arm falls off, there is little chance of a Steelers comeback in this one at all.
Pittsburgh was quite lucky Cincinnati imploded on itself with under 2 minutes remaining last weekend, and I do believe Peyton Manning has at least one more playoff win (and cover) in his ancient satchel of a career.
Manning just needs to be steady, and let his defense shoulder the load.
He does, and it does...Denver advances with the 10 point win.
2* DENVER
Chris Jordan
The Utah Utes are hoping to save face after being by the Oregon Ducks, 77-59, on Thursday. The home loss dropped the Utes to 12-5 overall and 1-3 in Pac 12 play. They are going to rebound nicely against the Oregon State Beavers, who fell on the road, at Colorado State, 71-54, on Wednesday.
Utah has won two straight against Oregon State at the Huntsman Center and is 11-1 all-time when hosting the Beavers. Utah hasn't lost to Oregon State at home since Feb. 4, 2012. And with the motivation from Thursday's loss brewing, it makes things even worse for the Beavers.
Speaking of which, with the loss to the Ducks, Utah looks to improve its 3-1 record in games following a defeat this season. Going back even further, Utah is 26-16 overall in games following a loss dating back to the 2013-14 season. Utah scored wins against Temple, Savannah State and Colorado following a loss this season. The lone defeat came to California two weeks ago after losing to Stanford. Topping Oregon State (11-4, 2-2) will not be a problem.
4* UTAH