Gabriel DuPont
Tonight's free play: Phoenix at MINNESOTA (-3')
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Phoenix Suns continue their torturous road trip today, as they arrive in Minneapolis after being thumped in Boston, 117-103, by the Celtics on Friday. The Suns are currently reeling, and sit five games out of eight place in the Western Conference. Bad spot for Phoenix here.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor in this game is weariness. The Suns are playing their third road game in six days after losing by 19 in Indianapolis and the 14-point loss in Beantown. Overall this is a team that has lost three straight and 12 of its last 13. Since Dec. 16, the Suns are mired in a 2-14 slide.
BOTTOM LINE is - I know the Timberwolves have their own problems, and have struggled to get in the win column. They're actually worse in the standings than the Suns, but this is a great spot to turn things around and get a huge win on its own court. Minnesota will snap its nine-game losing streak with an easy win here.
3* TIMBERWOLVES
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the San Antonio Spurs minus the points at home against the Dallas Mavericks. At the time of this writing, the Spurs are laying around 11 1/2 points in Vegas and offshore.
Wesley Mathews and the Mavericks might have been able to hold a tired Jimmy Butler to 4 points in their last game, but today it's not going to be quite as easy as the Spurs are little deeper than the Bulls and are a whole lot fresher.
Dallas is in the midst of their toughest part of the schedule and they simply don't play against the Spurs very well. San Antonio is unbeaten at home and always seem to find a way to not only beat the Mavs, but usually cover against them.
Take the Spurs minus the points in a blowout as your free play of the day.
1* SAN ANTONIO
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the San Antonio Spurs getting it done against in-state NBA rival and Southwest Division-rival Dallas, as the Mavericks are going to get outclassed today.
The Spurs are aiming to extend their 10 game winning streak, and stay perfect at home against the Mavericks.
The only shot Dallas has at staying in this game is Dirk Nowitzki, who is averaging a solid 18 points and eight rebounds per game. But once Tim Duncan goes on a rampage, Nowitzki will find himself in foul trouble, mark my words.
Nowtizki is overextending himself far too much, having to put in about 31 minutes per game. Duncan has enough resources backing him up where he plays about 26 minutes.
Fresh legs and the better roster make the difference tonight.
2* SAN ANTONIO
Jimmy Boyd
Seahawks +2.5
The perception is that Seattle is lucky to still be alive and it’s certainly a fair statement, but that doesn’t automatically mean they aren’t capable of winning on the road against the Panthers. In fact, that kind of break can be the type of thing that teams can use to their advantage. From this point on the Seahawks are playing with house money and I look for a much better performance from them than what we saw on Sunday.
You have to keep in mind that the conditions for their game against the Vikings were far from ideal. Temperatures were below zero for most of the game, which forced both teams to try and grind out yards on the ground. It negated Russell Wilson’s ability to stretch the defense deep in the passing game and allowed Minnesota to load the box to stop the run. Let’s not forget this is an offense that was clicking in the 2nd half. Seattle scored 30 or more points in 6 of their final 8 games. The offense could also get a boost here with a potential return of star running back Marshawn Lynch.
I know the Panthers went on the road and beat the Seahawks earlier this season, which is no easy task, but that was a game Seattle gave away more than anything. Seattle had a 20-7 lead late in the 3rd quarter and led 23-14 with less than 4 minutes to play in regulation. Carolina had to work for everything they got. The Panthers put together 4 touchdowns drives of exactly 80 yards, and all 4 consisted of at least 8 plays. I just don’t see Carolina replicating that in this matchup.
Another big factor here for me, is I’m just not a believer in the Panthers being as good as their 15-1 record. I know Carolina beat Seattle on the road and knocked off both Green Bay, Houston and Washington at home, but those are the only 4 games they played against playoff teams and the Redskins and Texans found themselves in the postseason as a result of playing in a bad division. I believe Seattle is the better team and there’s just too much value with the Seahawks catching points given their playoff resume over the last 3 years.
Seattle is 32-13 ATS in their last 45 games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who average 130 or more rushing yards/game and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 in the 2nd half of the season against teams who average 1 or less turnovers/game. Adding to all of this is a great system backing the Seahawks. Road underdogs that are scoring 24 or more points/game are 68-35 (66%) ATS off a win by 3 points or less since 1983.
SPORTS WAGERS
Carolina +140 over PITTSBURGH
Does anyone even understand how ridiculous this price is on the Hurricanes? Carolina is coming off a 3-2 OT loss to the Canucks in one of the most dominating performances we have seen this entire season by any team. Vancouver looked like they were killing a 60-minute penalty. The ‘Canes outshot the Canucks 40-22 but it was worse than that with a Corsi advantage of 60-33. It’s a rare game when the Hurricanes allow the opposition more than 25 shots on net per game. They are usually allowing in the 20-22 range and that means that their win expectation is as high as any team in this league. This is a deep and talented team that has NHL caliber players in the minors because there is no room for them at this level. The ‘Canes lead the league in fewest minor penalties taken and they lead the league in fewest shots on net. They have picked up 13 out of a possible 18 points over their past nine games and that number could just as easily be 18 out of 18. Carolina has been dominating games all season long and they have not been in better form than they are right now.
Pittsburgh is coming off a 5-4 OT loss in Tampa. They have dropped four of five and they return home from a four-game trip here. There is no question that the Penguins are in better form now than they were for most of the season but that does not mean they’re the better team. We’re not going to break this down piece by piece. The most relevant thing about this game is that the market continues to undervalue the 'Canes in a big way. What that means is that all the value here is on the Hurricanes, a team that has a legit shot to make a deep playoff run this season and that remains the most undervalued team in the league. They really are that good.
Philadelphia +140 over DETROIT
The Red Wings return home from a six-game trip here having won five of those games. Detroit’s only loss during the trip was in Los Angeles against the Kings so its stock is high right now. Thing is, Detroit really didn’t deserve to win any of those six games. They were outshot in all six games with a mere 23, 21, 25, 24, 27 and 25 shots on net respectively. It’s tough enough to return home from a long trip and win when in good form but that’s not the case for the Red Wings. They return home in poor form, having stolen at least four victories because of outstanding goaltending. Over the final five games of said trip, Detroit was held to two goals or less in every game and totaled a measly nine goals.
Philadelphia is in good form. The Flyers played an outstanding game against the Rangers yesterday afternoon but ended on the short end of an OT loss. Prior to that, Philly had won four straight while scoring three goals or more in all of them. The Flyers had 79 shot attempts to New York’s 57. The return of rookie d-man Shayne Gostisbehere was apparent right from the opening faceoff as he led the way with six shots on goal and 11 total attempts. We love that the Flyers are getting off to good starts. The Flyers have scored the game’s first goal in all five games of this current five-game point streak, going 4-0-1. The team that scores the first goal wins a high majority of games and there is a great chance of the Red Wings being flat early. Philadelphia has been on the verge of breaking out all season long. They are now more consistent but more importantly, they are a confident bunch that is seeing the results of their hard work. In a game in which the Flyers may have a better than 50% chance of winning, we once again turn to value.
Harry Bondi
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS -3.5 over Drake
Another easy free winner here yesterday with Bowling Green (+8.5) over Eastern Michigan in an outright victory. Today we stay with college hoops and will lay the points in the road with Southern Illinois. This is a classic case of two teams going in opposite directions. Not only has Drake lost five straight ATS and straight up but it is also 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games overall, thanks mostly to a dreadful offense that ranks 265th in the nation with just 69.3 points per game. Southern Illinois, meanwhile, has won six of its last seven and is 5-0 ATS in its last five on the road while going 21-8 ATS in their last 29 after a straight-up win. The Salukis pressure defense and depth will wear down the Bulldogs today. Lay the very reasonable number on the road.
Bruce Marshall
Michigan +7.5
Potentially vulnerable spot for Iowa, coming off a showdown win at revenge-minded Michigan State Thursday. The Hawkeyes need to be on alert against John Beilein's Michigan side that sent a warning shot to rest of the Big Ten with last Tuesday's win over Maryland. Beilein, long formidable in an underdog role, has now covered five of six after the upset of the Terps, and he might have the services of top scorer 6-7 G Caris LeVert (17.6 ppg), who was soon to return from a leg injury after missing the last three (including the win over Maryland).
OC Dooley
Seahawks +2.5
Despite all of the regular season victories as of this typing (12:45 in the eastern time zone) there has NOT been any inflation regarding Carolina. Even though Seattle (missed field goal) is very lucky to still be standing they have received tremendous respect from the oddsmakers which tells me this is the most dangerous “road” team in the Divisional round. Since becoming a starter 4 years ago Seattle’s Russell Wilson has compiled more overall victories in that span in NFL history and when cast as an underdog (11-2-1 ATS) has been lethal. Dating all the way back to the 1992 campaign (in the second-half of the season) when up against teams who commit on average “1 or less” turnovers per contest Carolina (0-7 ATS) has been a disaster for investors
SPORTS WAGERS
RIDER +3½ over Iona
We faded the Gaels on Friday night and our attack against this team is going to continue here. While many saw Iona as a short-sell and virtual sure play on Friday, we saw the writing on the wall with visiting Monmouth and sure enough the Hawks pulled off the upset, erasing Iona’s perfect home record.
Now we find Iona going back on the road where they have struggled mightily on the year. The Gaels are 2-4 on the road with victories over Marist and Quinnipiac. The Gaels porous 287th ranked defense reveals how vulnerable they are against any team with a heartbeat. We know how good A.J English is with his impressive 25.3 points per game and 6.3 assists per game, but he cannot carry this team on his back, as the Gaels 9-7 overall record will attest to. The Gaels have been the heavy favorite in this conference for two years running and they ended up first in the conference both times. This season they are still at the top of the MAAC standings with a 6-1 conference mark, which means there is a price to pay to back them. It should be noted that the Gaels second leading scorer, Jordan Washington has been suspended for two games after he lost his cool after the loss to Monmouth on Friday.
Rider is a lowly 5-12 on the year and we cannot help but chalk most of their downfalls up to stagnant offensive play. Frankly, we couldn’t care less. What we know for sure is that the Broncs have underachieved this season. This is a Rider outfit that was projected to contend for the MAAC crown this season. This is also a team that played then #3 Maryland earlier in the season and lost by just seven points. Subsequently, against then #14 Providence, the Broncs would once again prove to be a tough out, as they lost by just eight. Rider has returned impact seniors in Teddy Okereafor, Zedric Sadler and Shawn Valentine. The Broncs slow start has them undervalued by a wide margin, as the market once again sees wins and losses and not the true story on the court. While we respect the "Anything Can Happen in The MAAC" mantra, we cannot give the same respect to these Gaels as this market does and we absolutely trust that we’re going with the best of it here. The Broncs are NOT a 1-5 MAAC team so ascension is on the way.