RANDALL THE HANDLE
Cowboys @ Vikings
Minnesota was the beneficiary of a very gratuitous schedule. Having defeated just one team with a winning record outside of its division, Cincinnati, aided the Vikings and QB Brett Favre in both stats and perceptions. Over the past decade or so, Favre has been a late season and playoff slumper. He has entered the post-season with far better teams than this one but has found his way to quick exits, largely due to his own ineptitude. No. 4 has failed against teams with less talent than these Cowboys. Dallas has it going on right now and it’s no fluke. The defence has been stifling. Over the past four weeks, the Cowboys have recorded two shutouts, held the Saints to 17 points and spanked the potent Eagles twice. Conversely, the Vikings have struggled by losing three of five with final victory occurring against a disinterested Giants squad. One of the more notable defeats occurred against the Panthers and that was due largely in part by constant pressure applied by defensive end Julius Peppers. The Cowboys have an equally talented Demarcus Ware all ready to chase down No. 4 and with Anthony Spencer infiltrating from the other side, the Vikings can expect havoc in its backfield all afternoon. Dallas has weapons on both sides of the ball and they will all be deployed against this mediocre opponent.
TAKING: Dallas +2½ RISKING: 2 units
Jets @ Chargers
We hear a lot about New York’s No. 1 defence. While we respect what Rex Ryan has done since arriving as the head man, this will be a better barometer of how far his squad has come. Much of New York’s noticeable defensive stats were accumulated in the second half of the season. In that latter stage, the Jets faced the futile Bills, Bucs, Falcons and Panthers under Delhomme and his four interceptions before completing the season against two teams that rolled over. New York was impressive in its wild card win last week against Cincinnati. QB Mark Sanchez was efficient and went into the ‘manage the game’ mode quite well. This will be different. This is not the Bengals. This opponent is not lying down. The Jets will be asked to travel across the country to face the league’s hottest team. The Chargers have won 11 straight and are considered by many to be the league’s best team. Philip Rivers is one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks, having thrown for more than 4200 yards and 28 touchdowns. Rivers is well aware of the Jets defensive prowess but despite all of its success this year, New York does not have a impact end rusher to pressure San Diego’s leader. Give Rivers time and he’ll burn you. Give the Chargers the lead against a novice quarterback on the road and we like our chances.
TAKING: San Diego –7 RISKING: 2.02 units to win 2
SPORTS WAGERS
Dallas +1.29 over MINNESOTA
I’ll skip the pregame preliminaries on this one, as my hatred for Favre-gushing by announcers and analysts is at the point where I’m yelling at the TV screen to shut the f**k up already. Yeah, Favre has had an outstanding career and his 40,000 or so consecutive starts is incredible. We all get it and the more the media talks about how great he is the better because the Cowboys will completely disregard “the elephant in the room” and play a sound, methodical and great game just like they’ve been doing for over a month. When the Saints looked like they couldn’t be beat the Boys walked into New Orleans and ended the Saints dream for a perfect season. They followed that up with a 17-0 win over Washington and subsequently, when everyone said they couldn’t beat the Eagles three times in a season, they not only did that, they buried Philly in back-to-back games. The Boys are playing great defense, great offense and they’re on a big time roll. Meanwhile, the Vikes have not had a big game in about eight weeks. They stumbled into the playoffs by losing three of its last five and that includes a loss to the Bears. The Vikes last five wins came against the Giants, Cinci, Chicago, Seattle and Detroit. They have a history of coming up lame when the chips are down and you can be damn sure Dallas will be coming at the immobile Favre early and often. So yeah, Favre won a Super Bowl about 12 years ago with a great Packer team in his prime. Problem is, this is not a great Viking team and Favre isn’t in his prime. The Cowboys are a great team and Tony Romo is in his prime. You do the math. Keep the points. Play: Dallas +1.29 (Risking 2 units).
NY Jets +7 over SAN DIEGO
The Jets play great defense and the offense is gaining steam with each passing week. When the Jets have needed a score they’ve gotten one and when you combine a great defense with a great running game in the playoffs, it usually results in a win. Still, one cannot overlook the roll the Chargers have been on since week 4. Over that stretch they’ve beaten every bad team they’ve played and they also have wins over Dallas, Cincinnati, Philly, Denver and Tennessee. Philip Rivers is confident, precise and extremely talented and he has the personnel around him to do some serious damage. The Jets will blitz often, as they know they can’t give him time. They also know they can’t get into a shootout with this host, as they can’t win one. Having said that, these wildcard teams that get it going have been so dangerous over the years and these Jets look as dangerous as any of those. The Jets defense has kept them in games all season long. When the Jets lose they don’t lose by much and in fact, of its seven losses this season only two of them were by more than the points offered here and one of those losses occurred in New Orleans. The Jets have now won six of its last seven games and they’ve scored 90 points over its last three games. Sure, two of those wins came against teams that apparently “laid down” but they scored 24 last week on a brutally cold day in Cincinnati against what was supposed to be a tough defensive Bengal team. The Jets have momentum and that’s something that can’t be measured in yards or any other stat. Yes, San Diego is very dangerous and they, too, have momentum. However, they’re not the team getting seven points, the Jets are and they’ve proven over and over again all year that defense still wins football games. Play: NY Jets +7 (No bets).
Marc Lawrence
DePaul at St. Johns
Prediction: DePaul
The Blue Demons travel to the BIg Apple to take on St John's in a BIg east battle Sunday afternoon in a nice scheduling spot. That occurs with the Red Storm off a revenge win over Cincinnati and having a revenge game up next against Connecticut. With Depaul 4-0 ATS in this series when Johnny is off a win and 3-0 ATS when taking points from Big Red, we'll grab the points in this letdown/lookahead special.
Vernon Croy
New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: Over 42
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and there is a huge mismatch in this game with the Chargers receivers and the Jets corner-backs which will allow for big plays to be made. Yes the Jets defense has been tremendous this season but then they have not faced an offense as good as the Chargers. The Chargers receivers are very talented and that is a big reason why they are averaging 293 passing yards per game this season. The Chargers are averaging 28.4 ppg overall this season and now they come into this game rested. The Jets have also turned it up offensively averaging 30 ppg over their last 3 games played. Four of the last five games between these two teams have gone over the posted total and the O/U is a perfect 4-0 for the Chargers in their last 4 games when favored at home. Take the Over as your Free NFL Playoff Play for Sunday.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings
PICK: Dallas Cowboys +3
For a number of different reasons I believe the Cowboys are the prudent wager in this situation:
The Cowboys won their first playoff game since Dec. 28, 1996 last weekend vs. the Eagles, 34-14, ending a 4,760-day drought, easily the longest in the club’s proud history. The skid included six losses; a seventh would’ve set an NFL futility record.
Dallas has dominated its last four games, with both the defense and offense playing equal rolls in the outcome of those contests.
Tony Romo finished 23 of 35 for 244 yards with two TD's and no turnovers last week. He got deep into Philadelphia territory on nine of his first 10 drives, hitting eight receivers.
Not only is Dallas both 4-1 ATS and SU its last five overall, its also 4-2 SU its last six on the road.
On the other side of the field: The Vikings looked unstoppable to begin the year; then faltered, but seemed to turn it around in the end with a 44-7 crushing of the Giants on January 3rd.
However, I believe the week off will be detrimental, not beneficial for this squad as I look for the time off to "mess with the rhythm/momentum" this team built in its season finale.
Minnesota though has been extremely dominant in almost every ATS statistical category this year, however its interesting to note that its already 0-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less.
Bottom line: I believe the Vikings have questions with their offensive line and secondary that Romo is going to be able to exploit.
Dallas comes into this game as the overall hotter team, with both its offensive and defensive lines being the more dominant at the moment.
So with the Cowboys having the advantage in the "trenches", expect DALLAS to improve to 11-4 ATS this season vs. conference opponents and for Minnesota to fall to 4-4 ATS this year when playing against a team with a winning record.
Vegas Vic
Cowboys (+3) over VIKINGS
We went shopping today in Vegas and found a couple of +3s at the Mirage and the Hilton, so we're buying Dallas. (We still would have bought at +2). The Cowboys have won four in a row, straight up and against the spread, and Tony Romo is actually oozing confidence and weapons. In that four-game run, the 'Boys have outscored the opposition, 99-31, Romo has completed 66.7 percent of his passes and spread 12 touchdowns around to three running backs and five receivers. Having eight legit scoring options has really made life easy for Romo, and impossible for opposing defenses. The scary thing - the unknown is Brett Favre. For the most part, he has been fabulous this season, but this agile, speedy and agressive Dallas defense could make him miserable.
Jets (+7) over CHARGERS
New York comes out west having won six of its last seven, but San Diego is waiting with an 11-game winning streak. This is nothing new to the Chargers, who came into the 2006 playoffs on a 10-0 run and lost at home to New England in the divisional round. The Bolts also had an 8-0 run to close out the 2007 season, and were bounced out of the playoffs by the Patriots, a team from the AFC East. Everyone keeps questioning the Jets and coach Rex Ryan, but they just keep rolling. With the NFL's No. 1 rushing game (172.3 yards per game in the regular season), scoring defense (14.8 points per game) and overall defense (252.3 ypg), ya gotta believe the New Yorkers can hang. We expect San Diego to squeeze out a win at home, where they have a fabulous 28-7 record the last 4 years, but the final margin should definitely be under a touchdown.
Ron Raymond
NYJ +7.5 vs SDC
When NEW YORK JETS team played as Road team as a Underdog - During Week 16 to 20 - Allowed 14 points or less AGAINST in their last game; the Jets are 9-1-0 ATS in this role.
Doug Williams
Dallas Cowboys +2.5 @ Minnesota Vikings -2.5
Another upset? The Cowboys offense is on fire - Tony Romo has posted a rating of 100.0 or more in six of his last seven games.The Cowboys are having a surge of form where the Vikings are stuttering. The Vikings have home field advantage and have led the NFL in sacks this year, but I can't see them doing enough to upset Romo.My Pick: Cowboys to Cover the +2.5.
New York Jets +7 @ San Diego Chargers -7
The NY Jets are +7 point underdogs. They impressed last weekend dismantling Cincinnati, can they make it two in a row?The Chargers now own the longest current winning streak in the NFL, at eleven games, covering six of the last nine.Despite the SD win streak I'm sticking with the dogs this week - on the defensive side the Jets rank first overall and have allowed a grand total of 61 points in their last seven games.The Jets showed us last week that they are capable of pulling the upset, and I think they'll win at SD.My Pick: NY Jets (take the alternative line of +3.5)
GOLD SHEET
Dallas 28 - MINNESOTA 20—Well, maybe it was all just Jessica Simpson’s
fault. Or Carrie Underwood’s. (Sorry, we couldn’t resist!) Whatever, it’s
coincidental that once Tony Romo’s love life stopped making tabloid headlines,
he finally shed his notorious late-season and postseason demons, Dallas wins a
playoff game for the first time since Bill Clinton’s first term in office, and HC Wade
Phillips wins a playoff game for the first time, period. Now, can the Cowboys do
it again, at Minnesota?
Perhaps so. Especially based upon recent results, which indicate the Vikings’
best football of the season was played prior to Thanksgiving, before the team
appeared to lose its edge and drop 3 of 4 games, in ugly fashion, no less, during
December before recovering in the regular-season finale vs. the dispirited Giants.
The many mixed signals from the Twin Cities down the stretch include Brett
Favre’s sideline spat with HC Brad Childress during a 26-7 loss at Carolina Dec.
20, plus subsequent innuendo about diva-like behavior and suspicions that
Favre’s aging arm might have worn out, as it seemed to do late last season with
the Jets when his fastball lost its velocity. Then Favre authored a resurgence in
the Vikes’ last game-and-a-half vs. the Bears and G-Men, when he completed 46
of 62 passes for 601 yards and 6 TDP (with no picks) in his last 5+ quarters of
work, leading that 44-7 romp past the Giants Jan. 3.
But at the moment, Dallas brings a lot more, especially defensively, than either
the Bears or Giants. Phillips’ stop unit has been suffocating the past few weeks,
recording a pair of shutouts, throttling the explosive Eagles twice, and keeping the
potent Saints without a TD until the 4th Q of their game at the Superdome Dec.
19. Its high-octane pass rush featuring DeMarcus Ware has recently made life
miserable for Drew Brees & Donovan McNabb and affords Phillips the luxury of
not having to send his LBs on blitzes to pressure enemy QBs. Indeed, the
banged-up Viking OL might have problems protecting Favre or opening holes for
Adrian Peterson. Meanwhile, Romo (28 TDP & only 9 picks TY) is enjoying a rich
vein of form, complemented by an electric ground game sparked by the coast-tocoast
dimension of now-healthy RB Felix Jones (49 and 73-yard TD runs the last
two weeks). And Minnesota’s “D,” not quite as stifling vs. the run as in the past,
was victimized recently by the likes of Matt Moore & Jay Cutler. After the
Cowboys survived at New Orleans and exorcized demons vs.the Eagles, winning
indoors at Mall of America Field doesn’t seem too hard to imagine.
SAN DIEGO 24 - N.Y. Jets 22—Despite the obvious QB advantage owned by
the Chargers in the person of Philip Rivers (4254 YP, 28 TDs, only 9 ints. TY), the
upstart Jets appear to own enough edges of their own to keep the host nervous.
First, N.Y.’s solid running game (tops in the NFL TY)—propelled by four firstround
OL draft choices—should be able to attack the S.D. defensive front thinned
by injuries, most notably those to run-stuffing NT Jamal Williams and young
backup NT Ogemdi Nwagbuo. Meanwhile, OLB Shawne Merriman (nagging foot
injury; only four sacks TY) has rarely flashed his old, intimidating form. The
Charger rush defense ranked 20th this season.
Meanwhile, the San Diego OL, which battled injuries all season beginning with
its opener in Oakland, must now deal with the multiple stunts of Rex Ryan’s
defense, which is brimming with bravado after 6 wins in its last 7 games while
allowing the fewest points, total yards, and passing yards in the regular season
(albeit due partly to disinterested foes in the Jets’ last two reg.-season games).
Most importantly, third-year CB Darrelle Revis (7 ints. all told) has blossomed into
one of the best cover men in the league and has the long arms to deal singly with
one of the 6-5 Charger WR threats of Vincent Jackson (68 recs., 9 TDs) &
Malcolm Floyd (45 & 1). Of course, the N.Y. defense cannot afford to get careless
in handling TE Antonio Gates (79 recs., 8 TDs) & the lethal screens and draws run
by the super-quick Darren Sproles, who nearly single-handedly sabotaged the
Super Bowl hopes of the red-hot Colts (had won nine straight) last year.
In a game of this magnitude, there is always the chance rookie QB Mark
Sanchez (only 54%, 20 ints. in the reg. season; hails from just up I-5 in Mission
Viejo), will fall victim to false confidence after easier-than-expected victories the
last three weeks. Nevertheless, Sanchez’ improvement under the tutelage of
offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer (former S.D. QB coach and son of
former HC coach Marty) has been impressive, as his passes after misdirection
play fakes in frigid Cincy were nearly flawless. If the Jets get their crunching
ground game going, they should keep things interesting all day.
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
MINNESOTA over Dallas by 8
It was a sight to behold: former president George W. Bush highfiving
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones in the Palace at Dallas while the
Pokes ran the befuddled Eagles right out of town for a second straight
week. The 34-14 rout of Philly earned Dallas its first playoff win since
1996… so the ‘Boys are back, right? Uhh, maybe not. Our trusty database
has a lot to say about this matchup and Dallas fans won’t like any of it.
America’s Team has been a major flop on the playoff road, stumbling to
an anemic 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS record, including 1-6 SU and ATS off a
playoff win and 1-6 SU and ATS versus .750 or greater opposition. Head
coach Wade Phillips stands 0-3 SU and ATS as a postseason underdog
– and all playoff road teams off three straight division foes are 2-14 SU
and 3-13 ATS. Then there’s the matter of series history, squarely in
favor of Minnesota. The Vikings have won and covered five of the last
six meetings and they’re also a mind-boggling 7-0 SU and ATS facing
Dallas as a pick or favorite! Like the Cowboys, Minnesota brings a Top-
10 ranked offense and defense into this game and this home field has
proved to be a real advantage in 2009: the Norsemen are 8-0 SU at
Mall of America Field. Yes, Dallas QB Tony Romo has been playing like
a true Texas gunslinger of late but the Vikings’ grizzled Brett Favre has
never lost a home game to the Cowboys in his career (2-0 SU and
ATS). Look for Wade Phillips to get pink-slipped after the Ol’ Wrangler
leads Minnesota to a huge victory today
SAN DIEGO over NY Jets by 7 4:40 PM ET
Something’s gotta give. The league’s 5th-rated passing offense
takes on the NFL’s top-ranked passing defense. And if you listen
to HC Rex Ryan, his Jets should be the favorite. We’re not going
that far but we have to admit there is a huge disparity in offensive
rushing yards and overall team defense. And the Flyboys ‘D’ seems to
be getting better and better each week as it has held six of New York’s
last seven foes to season low – or 2nd low – yards. While we wouldn’t
blame San Diego backers (11 straight wins, 7-3-1 ATS) for not jumping
ship, our database notes the Chargers are a sorry 4-12-1 ATS as
favorites over the last two seasons when they fail to score more than
31 points. How many times has Rex’s bunch allowed more than 31
points this season? As Chad Ochocinco can attest to… nada! However,
before stepping in front of the SD freight train, you should know HC
Norv Turner is a surprising 6-1 ATS in the playoffs, including 3-0 SU
and ATS at home – and QB Philip Rivers is a not-so-surprising 28-7
SU and 21-13-1 ATS at home in his NFL career, including 20-7-1 ATS
as a favorite or dog of 11 or less points. This is a tough call. The hosts
did rip the visitors, 48-29, in this building in late September last year
but we can counter that with New York’s 10-3 ATS playoff log versus
non-division opposition. We’ll revisit this one later in the week after we
see where the number is headed. But our initial reaction, as always,
has us barking with the defensive dog.
POWERSWEEP
With confidence in hand from the prev wk the Jets took adv of a CIN tm that lacked variety in the pass game holding Ochocinco to 28 yds (14.0). They kept Sanchez on a short leash with just 15 att's and ground out a win behind the #1 rush offense (41 att's). SD presents a diff challenge as they bring more weapons to the table but the Jets run gm is a clear adv here. The Jets are 6-3 SU/ATS on the road with a 331-277 yd edge and 23-15 avg score. SD is 6-2 SU and 3-5 ATS as a host with a 372-325 yd edge (0 TO's) and a 28-22 avg score. TEN, MIA, OAK and CIN are the common foes with SD going 5-0 SU and 2-3 ATS with a 362-302 yd edge (+2 TO's) and 28-18 avg score. The Jets went 4-2 SU/ATS with a 339-237 yd edge (+11 TO's) and 29-15 avg score.
Rex Ryan took the same formula that got the '08 Ravens into the playoffs with a rookie HC and QB by relying on their #1 rush attack and #1 D. Sanchez is the 1st rookie QB to start and win the first 3 gms of a yr (202 ypg, 59%, 4-2) S/'69. He then avg'd 169 ypg (49%) with a 6-14 ratio in his next 7 starts (1-6 SU/ATS) until Ryan got involved with the "color code system." Since then he's avg 131 ypg (59%) with a 2-4 ratio except for the TB gm (knee sprain). The Jets boldly traded for Edwards and he still has a tendency to drop balls (49% catch rate with NYJ). Cotchery is back to being a solid #2 and TE Keller rounds out a decent rec unit. The backbone of the #20 offense is RB Jones who along with SD's Tomlinson and STL's Jackson are the only active RB's with 5 str 1,000 yd seasons. Jones finished 3rd in rushing TY thanks to a formidable OL that has started all 16 together. Over the L6 reg season games the D has held opposing QB's to a comb 33.7 passer rating with 1,054 ypg (43%) and a 1-10 ratio. The Jets are the 1st tm to lead the NFL in scoring D, total D and rush offense since the 1986 Bears. The best NFL CB for '09 is Revis who leads the NFL with 37 pd and hasn't all'd an opposing WR to have more than 50 yds TY. The ILB's are Scott and Harris who didn't miss a beat with the loss of NT **** in run support. While the Jets are just 18th in sks it's misleading as they own an 8-17 ratio. Shaun Ellis is a rare active pass rushing DE in a 3-4 (hybrid) and has 6.5 sks. Pouha has done a good job taking over at NT since the loss of **** and NYJ have all'd 93 ypg rush (3.6) since 10/18 (BUF). The Jets ST are an avg group (#14) which isn't bad as they've cycled 7 P's thru since the draft and aren't the same with the loss of Washington.
Norv Turner is a run 1st coach that has adapted SD's strength and that is Philip Rivers. In his L20 reg season gms Rivers avg' 256 ypg (65%) with a 39-10 ratio and a solid 8.7 ypa going 17-3 SU and 12-7-1 ATS. With the NFL fully embracing the reality that it's a pass 1st league now it's not that much of a surprise that the #10 offense is 31st in rushing. Neither Tomlinson or Sproles rushed for 100 yds in a gm TY and the tm only did it once in its L6 (TEN) avg 91 ypg (3.1). Sproles tied for 81st with 45 rec's (11.0) as Turner used the short pass like an extended pitch in the run gm. One of Rivers advantages is that he has very tall targets in WR Jackson (6'5"), TE Gates (6'4") and Floyd (6'5") who pushed Chris Chambers off the roster midseason. Both Jackson and Gates set career highs in rec yds and Jackson's 17.2 ypc is 3rd in NFL while Floyd placed 2nd. Perhaps the luckiest OL in the NFL TY was SD's who lost Ctr Hardwick in Wk 1 (foot) but Scott Mruckowski started the next 13 until he landed on IR (ankle) with Hardwick returning. The OL allowed 20 sks in its 1st 9 but just 6 in the L7 or 1 every 36.7 pass att's. SD's #16 D weathered a huge blow TY when NT Jamal Williams landed on IR in Wk 1 and SD has started 3 diff players at NT to shore up the #20 rush D which has allowed 100 yds rush in 13 gms TY. SD's #15 pass rush isn't as high profile as in prev years with Phillips leading the team with 7 sks but the pressure comes from diff players under DC Rivera as 16 players pulled in a sack TY (1 every 15.2 att). SD's #11 pass D had a slow start with an 8-4 ratio over the 1st 5 but trimmed it down to 15-10 the rest of the year after Rivera shook up the secondary after the 1st DEN gm. SD has our #11 ST's TY with Scifres having an impressive 39.2 net and Kaeding only missed 3 FG's TY all from 40+.
The Chargers enter as the league's hottest team with 11 straight wins while finishing the season on a 6-2-1 ATS run. While the Jets and their #1 defense deserve credit for their win in Cincinnati they now travel for a second straight week and are on the road for a 5th time in 7 weeks. Jets CB Revis shutdown Cincy's one receiving weapon but with SD able to line up WR Jackson (1167, 17.2), TE Gates (1157, 14.6) and WR Floyd (776, 17.2) the Chargers can stretch the field which Cincy couldn't. Let's also remember that while LT's numbers are down from past seasons he's focused after missing LY's playoff loss and is also rested having just 2 carries in 2 weeks. The Chargers experienced defense will not be as aggressive as the Bengals who were destroyed by the Jets play action. The Chargers are on a 5-1 ATS run in the playoffs and get another cover here.
FORECAST: SAN DIEGO over NY Jets RATING: 2★
DAL purged its playoff demons with a signature win over PHI in its new stadium that wasn't as close as the final score. When DAL went up 34-7 they had a 386-143 yd edge and then changed their defensive scheme allowing PHI to put up some garbage yards and a TD in the final 16:53 of the game. DAL now has to travel vs a rested MIN team that regained its confidence with a 44-7 win vs NYG prior to the bye. MIN is 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS at home TY with a 426-273 yd edge (+6 TO's) and 33-16 avg score. DAL is 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road with a 396-320 yd edge (-1 TO's) and 20-17 avg score. GB, SEA, CAR and the NYG are the common foes with MIN going 4-1 SU/ATS with a 369-313 yd edge (+1 TO) and 31-18 avg score. DAL went 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS with a 378-325 yd edge (-2 TO's) with a 24-21 avg score.
What makes TY's DAL team better than before is addition by subtraction as the team got rid of distractions. Romo had a banner season breaking his own franchise records for yds, comp's and 300 yd games (8) despite some questionable playcalling by OC Garrett. He also had a career low 9 int with 2 of those being on fluky plays that weren't his fault and he tied Rodgers and Brees for 2nd with 39 passes of 25 or more yds. Fifteen went to Austin who wasn't even a starting WR prior to the KC game. Austin finished 2009 3rd in rec yds and 7th in ypc. Witten remains Romo's fav target and finished 2nd behind Clark for rec's and rec yds by a TE. Crayton is a very fast but inconsistent #3 WR and he made up for his demotion avg 12.1 on PR avg TY. Roy Williams has become a very expensive afterthought and decoy in the DAL system mainly due to his 44% catch rate TY. DAL has one of the deepest RB units in the NFL with Barber being the power back, Jones the spd option and Choice being a balance between the 2. Together they have comb for the #7 rush attack and their 4.8 is tied with CAR for 2nd TY. The OL has only had 2 lineups TY with 4 of the 5 OL starting all 16. The #9 D is built around OLB Ware who tied for 7th with 11 sks TY. DAL was built big at LB which has helped it finish 4th in rush D and only all'd 55 ypg rush (3.0) in its L4 gms. DAL #20 pass D is a bit misleading as while they don't have a true passing Safety they have good CB's and teams have had to air it out more due to the offense. DAL has our #4 special teams TY due to good coverage units, McBriar having a 39.9 net and Crayton on PR's.
In '08 MIN finished 17th in total off, 25th in pass, 12th in pts and was -6 TO's. TY behind a 40 yr old QB they finished 5th in total off, 8th in pass, 2nd in pts and were +6 in TO's. MIN knew they were a veteran QB away from being a serious contender for the Super Bowl. When Favre decided to come out of retirement again they made the highly publicized, but right, move to get him. Favre set a team record with 10 gms of 100+ QBR while personally passing for his most TD's in a season S/'97, had the fewest int (7) and his best comp % (68.4) in his career. Peterson took some heat for a decline in rushing production (-377 yds from LY) as MIN went from 5th to 12th in rushing. This was partially due to the OL but a MIN also had 110 more pass att's TY and he more than doubled his rec's vs LY (21 to 43) which made his overall production +311 yds. Rice benefitted the most out of the addition of Favre with 68 more rec's and 1,171 more yards than '08 as he stayed healthy all yr. Harvin finished 2nd to NYG's Nicks in receiving yds by a rookie and was named Off ROY with a 27.5 KR avg and 2 spec tms TD's. Their OL isn't as good as its reputation due to a 1st year Ctr and rookie RT but their 34 sks (15th) is more a factor of Favre taking a sk rather than risk a TO. MIN's #6 D starts and ends with the DL. Allen finished 2nd in sks as the "Williams Wall" absorbed most of the double tms and allowed him to beat OT's 1 on 1 for most of the yr. MIN's biggest inj of the yr was the loss of MLB Henderson (brkn leg) and while rookie Brinkley is good vs the run he is a weak link in coverage. CB Winfield has played most of the 2H of the yr with a foot inj and while they have a 26-11 ratio overall they only given up 209 ypg (65%) with a 9-6 ratio at home. MIN has our #10 special teams thanks to solid return units (#11 PR/KR) but their KR defense can be exploited (22.6).
Dallas can win in December and the Cowboys can win a playoff game so all seems well in the Lone Star State. The Vikings, meanwhile, in the L5 have lost by 13 to ARZ, by 19 to CAR & by 6 to CHI on National TV. So now you understand why the line is under a FG. That is exactly why we will back the better team at home with rest. The Vikings are a perfect 8-0 SU at home and have covered their L5. They have dominated teams in the Metrodome outgaining them by an avg of 426-273 and outscoring them 33-16. We'll take Favre at home vs Romo on the road, Peterson at home vs the Cowboys trio on the road and a Vikings D that has not allowed over 10 pts in their L5 home gms vs a DAL D that will be overconfident after a couple of season ending shutouts.
FORECAST: MINNESOTA over Dallas RATING: 3★
SPORTS MEMO
Recommendation: Dallas +8.5 6-point teaser
About a month ago the Cowboys were mired in a media fire storm for their lack of
success in December and in the playoffs. Tony Romo was being vilified for a Vegas vacation
and the future looked bleak for head coach Wade Phillips. Fast Forward a month
and this team is now the “toast of the town” having won four straight in very impressive
form. Some would argue that over the last month, this defense is the best in football.
Dallas has allowed just 31 points during its win streak, outscoring the opposition at
a better than 3-to-1 rate. Meanwhile Minnesota is not playing with the same level of
confidence or chemistry. Much was made of the Brett Favre/Brad Childress argument
on the sideline and overall the Vikings lost three of their last five games. Also keep
note that they faced one of the easiest schedules in the league. They are a finesse
team that is not especially physical and with Dallas’ strong offensive line we would
expect plenty with the Cowboys’ ground game. The one caveat however is that the
home field advantage for the Vikings is legitimate with an 8-0 mark this season. We
expect a one score game and would not be surprised to see this one settled late in
the fourth quarter. As the first leg of our Sunday teaser we’ll back the Cowboys +8.5.
Recommendation: San Diego -1.5 6-point teaser
While the Jets are clearly playing with a renewed confidence and enthusiasm,
this will be their toughest challenge to date as the Chargers have played as
consistent as anyone in the league. With a strong and supremely big receiving
corps, this unit has made big play after big play all year long. At home they
have moved the ball and have gotten out to early leads in all 11 games during
their current win streak. Overall they have led by an average of 12 points
in each game. This is important in that a quick start will force the Jets out of
their conservative plan and into mistakes. Last week, New York was in its comfort
zone of utilizing the ground game with a lead and throwing in the occasional
big play when the Bengals became too aggressive up front. You
couldn’t have asked for a better situation for quarterback Mark Sanchez to
succeed under. But as mentioned, we feel the Jets will at some point be trailing
in this game and forced into an offense that does not have the ability to
consistently march up and down the field. We expect the Chargers to win the
game and will use San Diego at -1.5 as the second leg of this playoff teaser.
BANG THE BOOK
The Minnesota Vikings will host the Dallas Cowboys this Sunday at the Metrodome in possibly the most popular playoff meeting thus far in the postseason. On one side, you have the legend QB Brett Farve who signed with the Vikings while turning a rushing team into one of the most balanced offenses in the league. The Vikings at many times this season have appeared to be the most complete team in the league, but a few lackluster performances down the stretch has left some doubts on what was such a promising season. The Vikings are in search for their first NFC Championship in over 30 years, but before they have a chance at a Championship they must defend their home turf against the most hated team in America.
The Dallas Cowboys ended all the critics talk of the postseason drought last week as they beat the Eagles for the 2nd straight week in a row to score their first postseason victory since 1996. The Cowboys are suddenly playing extremely well on the defensive side of the ball and also getting help from the offense along the way. The Cowboys now seem to have momentum on their side, something that has been missing for nearly two decades. Still, the Cowboys have a lot of support considered by one of the largest fan bases in sports. For most of those fans, the Cowboys rise to glory has been long overdue. However, a loss to the Vikings this Sunday would make the wait even longer.
The Vikings offense has been a lethal threat to all defenses this season. The primary objective initially was to feed the ball to the sensational running threat of Adrian Peterson and then work the pass in as holes opened in the defense. However, Peterson has not had the incredible season that most would have expected yet has still been effective enough to rack up over 1,300 rushing yards. However as a result, Farve has thrown a lot more passes and WR Sidney Rice has emerged as a star in the passing offense. It will be interesting to see how the Vikings come out and try to establish their offense this week. The Cowboys defensive front has been very strong and just asks Donovan McNabb how well they are playing. Still, even with the Cowboys strong pass rush teams have been able to run the ball. On that note, expect Peterson to set the tone early and depending on their success running the football will decide which pace of offense the Vikings establish.
Expect the Vikings run game to not be as successful early on when emotions are up from kickoff and they will likely turn to Farve rather quickly. I’m sure the Vikings passing attack will have their ups and downs. However, it could be a lot more struggles if the Dallas pass rush continues to dominate. The way the Vikings will get the offense involved is when they go back to the running game with Peterson later. Once the Dallas defense is worn down a bit, Peterson can have a step advantage in the holes and that is where they will find the offensive sparks. It will be up to Farve and the passing game to capitalize on those sparks. One thing is for sure that neither passing team can afford to turnover the ball as this will expectedly be a close game.
The Cowboys offense will surely allow Marion Barber and Felix Jones to have plenty of carries. Both backs have the ability to cause damage, but Jones is appearing to be the star in the making. After busting out a few big plays against the Eagles in the first meeting, Jones rushed for 148 yards and a score on just 16 carries in last week’s win. QB Tony Romo completed 66% throwing for 244 yards and 2 scores. WR Miles Austin was yet again the favorite target catching 7 balls for 82 yards and a touchdown. However, keep an eye on WR Roy Williams. When Williams makes a few grabs it really opens the door for the rest of the receivers. The Cowboys numbers on offense has been pretty solid and they should be able to score some points again. The question is will the Vikings have their way on the offensive side of the ball as they have many times this season or will the Cowboys defense continue to impress?
The New York Jets opportunity to just reach the postseason was considered a big long shot, but they closed out the year winning 5 of their last 6 games while getting help from some of the other teams around the league as well. The Jets backed up their underdog efforts last week with an impressive outing against the Cincinnati Bengals 24-14. The Jets finally are getting tremendous help from their defense and they are proving that they can play with the top teams in the league. However, the Jets will try to tackle the San Diego Chargers this weekend, who are the hottest team in the NFL in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs.
San Diego won 11 games as the hottest team in the league to close out the year earning them a first round bye last week. The well rested Chargers will now attempt to pick up where they left off. The San Diego offense has proven to be unstoppable this season with QB Phillip Rivers under center. Rivers threw for 4,254 yards with 28 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions this season. Those are very solid numbers especially if you consider the lack of run game throughout the year meaning defenses knew the pass was coming but still could not stop it.
The reason it’s hard to stop the Chargers passing attack outside of Rivers dangerous accuracy lies in the receivers. WR Vincent Jackson and tight end Antonio Gates possibly the most lethal duo combination in any passing game. The two have combined for 2,300 plus yards and 17 touchdowns. Jackson is a big wide receiver that has dominated cornerback this year and Gates provides excellent support underneath. Those combinations in the passing game have been deadly, but now they must get the momentum rolling after a week off and also against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.
The Jets lead the NFL in pass defense holding opponents to a lucrative low 154 yards per game through the air. The entire Jets defense has been even more impressive holding teams to just less than 9 points per game during their last 7 outings. However, the secondary may not have the height advantage to take the ball away from Jackson if he gets a few throws down the field. Jackson single handedly beat the Cowboys, who also have a disadvantage in size in their secondary, late in the regular season and the Jets can not afford to yield any similar results. For the most part, their pass defense has been very solid but will likely need to force a turnover or two quickly before the Chargers will change their attack. If they can keep San Diego out of the end zone early it will be vital to their success. The offense may put more on the arm of Mark Sanchez this week. Sanchez has been used very little considering the offense has ridden running back Thomas Jones over the past few weeks.
However, points will have to be scored in this game as I do not think the Jets running game can absolutely control the game start to finish. They will have to get help from Sanchez who completed 12 of 15 for 182 yards last week against the Bengals. If Sanchez can repeat on those numbers and produce some points then they will have a shot at the upset. Thomas Jones has been the workhouse over the past few weeks and they will give him the ball often again. Jones needs a few solid runs out of the gate to set the tone for the offense so that they can try to give him the ball 20 plus times. However, as stated before Sanchez and the passing offense will have to give support at some time in this game. If the Jets can not score at least 20 points they will not win.
Pick – Chargers roll
POINTWISE
The Cowboys have turned it all around, & in a big way. They have been notorious
for their late season swoons, which have scuttled playoff notions, & when they did
make it into the post-season, they failed miserably. But a balanced "O", & a fearsome
"D" has resulted in their 1st playoff win since 1996. Unbelievable. Romo
(28/9) is complemented by a rushing "O" which has averaged 148 ypg the last 5
wks. Check allowing only 73, 65, 43, 37, & 56 RYs the last 5 weeks, as well as 4.7
ppg the last 3 games. Minny, behind Favre (brilliant 33/7) has covered its last 7
HGs by 120 pts, but the smoking 'Boys are their match. We'll call the mild upset.
PROPHECY: DALLAS 27 - Minnesota 24 RATING: 3
Can the Jets approach the Giants of '07, with their current 4-0 SU & ATS run in the
role of visitor? Well, they have the #1 "D" in the NFL, as well as the #1 rushing "O",
so cannot be taken lightly. Check 135 RYs from Greene (6.4 ypr), with Sanchez a
solid 12-of-15, including 10-of-11 to wind up, in win at Cincy. And they've allowed
only 8.7 ppg in their last 7 games. But the Chargers are a horse of a different color.
Eleven straight wins (+85½ pts ATS), while averaging 31.3 ppg in their last 8 gms.
No playoff season has seen such brilliance at QB (Brees, Favre, Romo, Rodgers,
Warner, Manning, Brady, etc), with Rivers (28/9) surely among them. Chargers!
PROPHECY: SAN DIEGO 27 - New York Jets 13 RATING: 5
VEGAS EXPERTS
NY Jets at San Diego Chargers
The Jets seem to have lady luck riding on their shoulders and match up very well with the Chargers. The Flyboys rank #1 in the league in both rushing and defense, the reciepe for success come playoff time. San Diego ranks next to last in the league in rushing offense and is just 20th overall at stopping the run. New York has covered six straight times as a road underdog seven points or less.
Play on: NY Jets