Rob Vinciletti
Illinois State vs. Drake
Play: Illinois State -3.5
Illinois State has statistical edges both shooting and defending in this match up with Drake tonight. They are 6-0 this year vs losing teams and have won 5 of 6 times after allowing 60 or less points in their previous game. When the posted total is 130 to 139.5 they have won and covered 4 of 5 times this year. Drake has been bad this year as a short home dog losing and failing to cover all three times. They are under .500 at home this year and lost here by 18 points vs Illinois State last year. Lay the small number here tonight with Illinois State.
LT Profits
Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings
The Dallas Cowboys are playing the best defense in the NFC right now and they just suffocated the Philadelphia Eagles each of the last two weeks, and we look for that defense to key a big road win over the Minnesota Vikings today.
Like most other people, we thought the Cowboys were finished when they lost their first second straight December game at home vs. the Chargers, as it looked like the team in general and quarterback Tony Romo in particular would continue their past pattern of melting down in December.
The turning point of the whole season though came on December 19, when Dallas went into New Orleans and held the powerful Saints offense to 17 points, ending the New Orleans dreams of a perfect season. To put that effort in perspective, just look at what the Saints offense did yesterday! The Cowboys then followed that up by allowing a grand total of 14 points in the last three games.
With great play from the defense, even Romo has relaxed and played very well, and the Dallas running game has also come alive with a deep stable led by a finally healthy Marion Barber. In short, the Cowboys are hitting on all cylinders right now, and besides the San Diego Chargers, no other team in the NFL has played better over the past month.
Now granted, the Vikings were 8-0 at home this season, but that is the kind of statistic you can throw out the window once the playoffs start. The bottom line is that Minnesota did not play well down the stretch and nearly blew the two-seed after beginning the year at 10-1. The most impressive outing in the last month came in the season finale vs. the Giants, but it was obvious there that the New Yorkers had no interest in playing after getting eliminated the previous week.
The Vikings may have signed Brett Favre to win games precisely like this, but that will not matter when the rejuvenated Dallas defense pressures him and has him running for his life, which is when he is most prone to throwing interceptions.
The Cowboys are a much better team than the teams that Minnesota beat while accumulating their regular season 8-0 home record, and we think that will become obvious when Dallas emerges victorious today.
Pick: Cowboys +3
LARRY NESS
Providence @ Marquette
PICK: Marquette -9
Keno Davis left Drake after one season, having won MVC regular season and tourney titles (28 wins) while advancing to the NCAA tourney. In his first year at Providence the Friars won 19 games, losing in the first round of the NIT. Five seniors are gone from that team but as a whole (while talented), that group never met expectations, winning just 64 games in four years (16 per season). Getting a 5th-year of eligibility is guard Curry (14.7-4.2 APG) and Davis redshirted two forwards last year, both of whom are rewarding him with excellent contributions. The 6-6 Peterson (17.6-10.60 has been terrific, while the 6-8 Dixon (8.9-6.2) has done his share as well. Wing players Brooks (15.3-4.8) and McKenzie (7.1-4.4) plus freshman guard Council (7.6-3.2-3.6) round out the team's major contributors. Providence is 11-6 (3-2 in the Big East) and has been competitive away from home (4-3 SU and 5-1 ATS) but I don't like them here. Marquette is 10-6, including a disappointing 1-3 in league play. Buzz Williams' second season has been a struggle, as the perimeter trio of McNeal (19.8-4.5-3.9), Matthews (18.3-5.70, and James (11.0-5.0) have finally moved on. Two JUCO All-Americans have helped fill the void in Johnson-Odom (11.6) and Buycks (8.1-3.9) plus Cubillan (6.6) and Acker (7.6) have enjoyed more playing time this year, after the two combined to average just 4.4 PPG last season. The Golden Eagles are led by a pair of 6-6 forwards, Hayward (18.6-7.6), who was expected to star, and the surprising Butler (15.3-6.6), who averaged only 5.6 PPG last year. Marquette is 8-2 SU at home this year, outscoring opponents on average, 80.9-to-60.5 PPG. Marquette won at Providence 89-82 last season (only meeting) and I believe will have an easier time here in Milwaukee. Lay the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on UConn Huskies -1
The Wolverines have a nice team, but they are yet to play up to their full potential this season. I'll take the Huskies here, who are extremely motivated to get back in the win column after back-to-back defeats. The Huskies won't be taking the Wolverines lightly in this spot either as they remember Michigan giving them a game last season. Michigan's blowout win over Indiana and UConn's double digit loss to Pitt actually sets up nicely for a solid system play. In fact, plays against any team off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against an opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are 40-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that this system is already 4-0 this season. We'll take UConn for 1 Unit.
EZWINNERS
San Diego Chargers -7
The betting public has been all over the Jets and they have driven this line down from 9.5 to 7. The Jets defense is great against the run, but the Chargers have not had much of a running game this season. San Diego moves the ball up and down the field through the air. I don't New York will be able to shut down all of the weapons that the Chargers have and quarterback Phillip Rivers will get them the ball. The Jets have been successful offensively by running the ball, but if they fall behind like I think they will, rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez will have the pressure on him to win this game. Lay the points.
SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PLAYOFFS
Dallas (12-5, 10-7 ATS) at Minnesota (12-4, 9-6-1 ATS)
The No. 2 seed Vikings, fresh off a bye week and looking to ride aging QB Brett Favre to the Super Bowl, play host to the surging Cowboys at the Metrodome.
After finishing the regular season on a 3-0 SU and ATS surge that included back-to-back shutouts, Dallas ripped Philadelphia 34-14 in the wild-card round last week as a 3½-point home chalk – routing the Eagles for the second straight week at Cowboys Stadium. In winning their first playoff game in 13 years, the Pokes won the turnover battle 4-1, recovering three fumbles and getting an INT, and they outgained Philly 426-340, including gashing the Eagles D for 198 rushing yards.
RB Felix Jones had 16 carries for a whopping 148 yards, including a 73-yard TD jaunt, as he filled in for Marion Barber (knee), who had just three carries. Barber is probable to go today.
Minnesota went on a 10-1 SU tear to open the 2009 campaign (7-3-1 ATS), with Favre’s revived arm pacing the squad to 27 points or more in all 10 victories, including seven games of 30 points or more. The Vikes hit the skids in December, going on a 1-3 SU and ATS slide, including back-to-back upset road losses of 26-7 at Carolina and 36-30 at Chicago in overtime as heavy nine-point favorites in both games. However, in the regular-season finale two weeks ago, Minnesota pounded the Giants 44-7 at home, again laying nine points, to claim the No. 2 seed.
Minnesota won the NFC North for the second straight year, after a three-year playoff hiatus. However, last year’s postseason stay was a short one, as the Vikes tumbled 26-14 to Philadelphia as a three-point home underdog in the wild-card round. Dallas, meanwhile, got a huge monkey off its back last week, halting an 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS postseason skid in notching its first playoff victory since the 1996 season.
These teams have been regular preseason opponents, meeting each of the past four summers. In games that count, Minnesota is on a 5-1 SU and ATS tear in this rivalry, though Dallas won the most recent clash 24-14 as a 9½-point home favorite in October 2007. The chalk has won and covered the last seven meetings, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five battles, and the Vikes have cashed in the last four clashes at their home dome.
In addition, Minny is on a 7-0 SU and ATS surge when installed as a pick or a favorite against Dallas. However, Favre has never defeated the Cowboys in his career.
The Cowboys have the league’s second-best total offense, racking up 399.4 ypg in regular-season play, behind only the Saints (403.8 ypg), but that has translated into just 22.6 ppg (14th). QB Tony Romo passed for 4,483 yards (third) with 26 TDs and just nine INTs in leading a passing attack that netted 267.9 ypg (sixth). Dallas was seventh in rushing (131.5 ypg), paced by Barber (932 yards, 7 TDs, 4.4 ypc).
Thanks to ending the regular season with consecutive shutouts, Dallas ranked second to the Jets in scoring defense (15.6 ppg) and was ninth in total defense (315.9 ypg). The Cowboys were fifth against the rush (90.5 ypg), and All-Pro linebacker DeMarcus Ware piled up a team-best 11 sacks. Including last week’s game, the Cowboys have held nine of their last 11 opponents to 17 points or fewer, going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in those nine contests.
Favre, who turned 40 early in the season, paced the NFL’s fifth-best total offense (379.6 ypg), with the passing game netting 259.8 ypg (eighth). Favre threw for 4,202 yards (ninth) and had 33 TDs – tied for second with Peyton Manning – against just seven INTs, which tied for the second-lowest total among starting quarterbacks. WR Sidney Rice (84 catches, 1,316 yards, 8 TDs) was the main threat for a team that averaged 29.4 ppg, second only to New Orleans’ 31.9 ppg.
RB Adrian Peterson’s numbers were down this year, though he still gained All-Pro honors by finishing with 1,389 yards rushing and 18 TDs, along with 43 catches for another 436 yards.
Defensively, Minnesota allowed 305.5 ypg (sixth) and 19.5 ppg (10th), and ranked second against the run (87.1 ypg). The Vikings really made their mark by hounding quarterbacks, as they racked up a league-best 48 sacks, helping them post a plus-6 turnover margin (ninth). Jared Allen had 14½ sacks, the second-best total in the league.
The Cowboys have cashed in four straight overall, all within the NFC, and they are on further ATS rolls of 4-1 after a SU win, 5-2 after a spread-cover and 5-2 against winning teams. However, Dallas remains in ATS ruts of 2-5 in the postseason, 2-5 as a pup and 4-9 in January. Furthermore, the Pokes are 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS in their last dozen road playoff games, including 1-6 SU and ATS following a postseason victory.
The Vikings went a perfect 8-0 SU (5-2-1 ATS) at home this season, including 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the last five at the Metrodome, with all five victories coming by at least 17 points. That said, they also carry negative ATS streaks of 1-3-1 after a spread-cover and 7-15-1 following a SU win.
Minnesota is on a bundle of “under” sprees, including 6-2 overall, 4-0-1 in the playoffs, 4-1 at home (all as a chalk), 6-2-1 in January, 6-2 laying points, 35-15-1 after a spread-cover and 34-16-1 following a SU win. Likewise, the under for Dallas is on surges of 8-2 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 4-1 in January, 6-2 against NFC foes and 5-2 with the Cowboys coming off a SU win. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and UNDER
N.Y. Jets (10-7 SU and ATS) at San Diego (13-3, 8-7-1 ATS)
The upstart Jets and rookie QB Mark Sanchez make the cross-country trek to Qualcomm Stadium to take on the red-hot Chargers.
New York dumped the Bengals two weeks in a row, rolling to a 37-0 home win as a 9½-point chalk to clinch a playoff berth in Week 17, then went to Cincinnati last week and posted a 24-14 victory over the AFC North champs in the wild-card round as a 2½-point road pup. Sanchez, who threw 20 INTs in the regular-season, was mistake-free for the third straight game last week, going an efficient 12 of 15 for 182 yards and a TD, and RB Shonn Greene racked up 135 yards and a TD on just 21 carries.
Jets leading rusher Thomas Jones, who had 1,402 regular-season yards, was limited by a knee injury, though he also had a TD run. The one negative last week: New York allowed Bengals RB Cedric Benson to pile up 169 rushing yards, including a 47-yard TD run.
San Diego carries an NFL-best 11-game winning streak (7-3-1 ATS) into the postseason, a run that came after a shaky 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS start to the season. In their regular-season finale two weeks ago, the Bolts went with reserves most of the way, but they put up 10 fourth-quarter points to pull out a 23-20 victory and get the push as a three-point home chalk. San Diego has scored 20 points or more in every game during their streak, with six games of 30 or more points, including two in the 40s.
The Jets are in the playoffs for the first time since the 2006 season, when they bowed out to New England 37-16 in the wild-card round catching 9½ points on the road. The Chargers, the AFC’s No. 2 seed, are in the playoffs for the fourth straight year as the AFC West champion. Last year, they knocked out Indianapolis 23-17 in overtime as a 1½-point home ‘dog in the wild-card round, then fell short at Pittsburgh 35-24 getting 6½ points in the divisional round.
These teams last met in September 2008 on a Monday night, with San Diego rumbling to a 48-29 rout as a nine-point home favorite, which ended a four-game ATS run (3-1 SU) by New York in this rivalry, dating to the 2002 season. In fact, in the wild-card round after the 2004 season, the Jets went to San Diego upended the Chargers 20-17 in overtime as a seven-point road pup. The SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes, and six of those games were decided by double digits.
New York rated a below-average 20th in total offense this year (321 ypg), and was slightly better at No. 17 in scoring (21.8 ppg). However, the Jets field the NFL’s most potent running attack, piling up 172.2 ypg. Jones trailed only the Titans’ Chris Johnson and the Rams’ Steven Jackson in rushing yards, and he also had 14 regular-season rushing touchdowns. Sanchez had 12 TDs passes, but his 20 INTs were second-most in the league, and he also fumbled 10 times, losing three. In his last three games, Sanchez has just the one TD pass thrown last week, but he hasn’t thrown a pick.
The Jets ranked No. 1 in scoring defense (14.8 ppg) and total defense (252.3 ypg), and they had the No. 1 pass defense (153.7 ypg) thanks largely to shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis (6 INTs). But due to Sanchez’s rookie penchant for INTs, New York posted only a plus-1 turnover margin (17th). However, the Jets won the turnover battle last week, 2-1.
San Diego put up 360.1 ypg (10th) and 28.4 ppg (fourth) in the regular season, mostly on the arm of Philip Rivers, who threw for 4,254 yards (eighth) and 28 TDs (tied for sixth), with just nine INTs. WR Vincent Jackson (68 catches, 1,167 yards, 9 TDs, 17.2 ypc) was the top gainer, though TE Antonio Gates (79 catches, 1,157 yards, 8 TDs, 14.6 ypc) was close behind.
The vaunted ground attack of RBs LaDainian Tomlinson (730 yards, 12 TDs) and Darren Sproles (343 yards) never really materialized this year as the Chargers finished a lowly 31st in the league in rushing (88.9 ypg). They were outrushed in each of their last six games of the season.
The Bolts’ defense finished a middling 16th in allowing 327 ypg, but those yards netted just 20 ppg for the opponents (11th), much of that due to San Diego’s plus-8 turnover margin, which was the sixth-best mark in the league.
The Jets are on a 6-1 SU and ATS surge, and the SU winner has covered in all 17 of their games this year and 19 straight overall. New York is on further ATS rolls of 4-0 on the road, 4-0 against the AFC, 5-1 in January, 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 7-2 as an underdog and 9-3 as a road ‘dog. The Jets are also on a 10-3 ATS playoff streak against non-division foes.
The Chargers also sport several positive ATS trends, including 6-2-1 overall, 4-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 in the postseason, 4-1 against winning teams, 4-1-1 in January and 6-2-1 following a SU win. In addition, coach Norv Turner is 6-1 ATS in the playoffs, including 3-0 SU and ATS at home.
The over for New York is on runs of 5-0 in January, 3-0-1 against winning teams, 6-1-1 within the AFC and 5-2-2 with the Jets a road pup. Likewise, the over for San Diego is on tears of 5-1 overall, 4-0 at home (all as a chalk) and 4-0 against the AFC, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last five meetings.
However, the under has hit in San Diego’s last four home playoff affairs and is on additional runs for the Chargers of 5-2 overall in the postseason and 7-3 in January.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(11) Georgetown (13-2, 6-5 ATS) at (4) Villanova (15-1, 11-4 ATS)
The Wildcats are shooting for their seventh straight win and fifth straight in Big East Conference action as they welcome Georgetown into The Pavilion for clash between longtime rivals.
The Hoyas are looking for their third straight conference win (1-1 ATS) and sixth win in their last seven overall (3-3 ATS). Georgetown scored an 85-73 home victory over Seton Hall on Thursday, cashing as a 6½-point favorite. On the highway, the Hoyas turn up the heat defensively, allowing just 53.5 points a game and limiting the opposition to 36.6 percent shooting.
Villanova is a scoring machine at home, putting up 88 points a game and shooting 52.3 percent from the floor. The Wildcats are a perfect 7-0 as a host this season (5-1 ATS in lined games), but had to survive a tight one with Marquette last Saturday, holding on for a 78-76 win while coming up well short as nine-point favorites. On Monday, Villanova went to Louisville and prevailed 92-84 victory as a 3½-point pup, getting a 36-point effort from veteran guard Scottie Reynolds.
Georgetown has won five straight (4-1 ATS) in this rivalry, including a 56-54 upset win in The Pavilion a season ago as a 6½-point underdog. The Hoyas have won two straight in Villanova’s house and three of the last four (SU and ATS). The underdog is on a 10-4 ATS run in the last 14 series clashes, and the visitor has cashed in seven of the last 10.
The Hoyas are 4-1 ATS in their last five roadies, however they’re otherwise in pointspread slides of 7-19 in Big East action and 5-20-1 after a spread-cover. The Wildcats are on several ATS surges, including 6-1 at home, 7-1 on Sunday, 4-1 in Big East play, 9-2 at home against teams with winning records and 7-2 after a spread-cover.
Georgetown is on “under” streaks of 22-10 on the road, 42-19 after a spread-cove and 5-1 against winning teams. However, Villanova is on a plethora of “over” runs, including 9-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 17-8-1 on Sunday, 4-1 in Big East action, 8-1 after a straight-up win and 6-1 after a spread-cover. In this rivalry, the “under” has been the play in five of the last six clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Wake Forest (12-3, 6-6 ATS) at (8) Duke (14-2, 10-5 ATS)
The Blue Devils will try to continue their domination of Wake Forest when they welcome the Demon Deacons into Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C., for this ACC showdown.
Duke has won six of the last eight meetings (SU and ATS) with Wake Forest, and the Blue Devils are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home matchups with the Demon Deacons. The home team, on a 16-5 ATS run in this rivalry, won both meetings between these two last season, with Duke getting a 101-91 victory as an eight-point favorite a month after losing 70-68 as a two-point road chalk.
Wake Forest has won eight of its last nine overall (5-4 ATS) with its last three victories all coming in overtime, including Tuesday’s 85-83 home triumph over Maryland, coming up short as a 3½-point favorite. The Deacons are 4-2 on the road (1-4 ATS), averaging 74.2 points a game while allowing 66.3 and holding the opposition to 36.3 percent shooting.
The Blue Devils have also won eight of nine overall (6-3 ATS) and bring a perfect 10-0 (6-3 ATS) home record into this one. Duke crushed Boston College 79-59 as a 15½-point home favorite on Wednesday, getting 24 points from Nolan Smith and 15 points and 10 rebounds from Kyle Singler.
The Demon Deacons are on ATS streaks of 6-2 on the road, 4-1 on Sunday and 5-1 on the road against teams with winning home records. Meanwhile, Duke is on positive ATS runs of 5-1 at home, 4-0 on Sunday and 8-3 after a straight-up win.
Wake has topped the total in seven of 10 following a non-cover and six of seven Sunday contests, but it is on “under” runs of 6-1 on the road and 5-2 against ACC competition. The Blue Devils have topped the total in seven of 10 at home against teams with winning road records, but they have stayed “under” the total in 20 of 26 ACC games, five of seven overall, four of five at home and 21 of 28 after an spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE
Tony Weston
Through one half yesterday the Cardinals and Saints were well on their way to seeing the Over not come in. Luckily, that was in the second half after the teams had already combined for 49 points in the first.
The teams put up 59 points as the Over came in, just like I said it would.
Today, I’m going the opposite direction as I’m taking the Under in the Cowboys-Vikings matchup in Minnesota.
Coming into this game the Cowboys have seen the Under come in 8 of their last 10 games overall, including 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
The Vikings have seen the Under go 6-2 their last 8 games and have seen it go 4-1 their last 5 games at home.
Keep in mind, too, Minnesota has seen the Under go 4-0-1 its last 5 playoff games and have stayed Under the Total in 5 of its last 7 games against the NFC.
The Cowboys have stayed Under the Total in 4 of their last 5 games in January, while the Vikings have seen the Under go 6-2-1 their last 9 games in this month.
These two will stay Under the Total again as scoring comes at a premium.
3♦ COWBOYS-VIKINGS UNDER
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the UConn Huskies over a very average Michigan team. This is a complete mismatch from the word go and I could see this as a ten-point Huskies win. Michigan has definitely held their own in the start of the Big 10 Conference season, but I believe they are playing over their heads. They just aren't that good. If Manny Harris doesn't get his shot going early the Wolves could be in danger of falling behind by double digits and never recovering. Plus UConn is steaming mad after their last game in which they were thoroughly pummeled by Pitt and I just can't see them dropping three straight... especially to a team like Michigan. The last time these two met was a year ago in Storrs... UConn played terribly and still won by 8. Today the game is in Ann Arbor and that's why I believe we are getting some serious line value. I'm taking the Huskies in a pick 'em as my top play of the day.
3♦ CONNECTICUT
Stephen Nover
Dallas at MINNESOTA -2'
I'm just not sold on the Cowboys being on the road in January or with their coach, Wade Phillips.
The Cowboys are very familiar with the Eagles and matched-up well against them in beating Philadelphia the past two weeks at home.
Prior to that, though, Dallas was 0-3 in its last three playoff games. Phillips is 1-4 in his last five playoff games.
As things turned out, the NFC East turned out to be the most overrated conference. The Eagles were pretenders, the Giants lost eight of their last 11 games and the Redskins were 4-12.
The Vikings are the real deal at home where they went 8-0 with a 5-2-1 against the spread mark. Minnesota averaged 32.7 points at the Metrodome this season.
Brett Favre, playing his home games indoors, had a career-best quarterback rating of 107.2. He had a 21-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home.
This will be Favre's 23rd playoff game. This will be Tony Romo's second road playoff game. Romo is going to face a tough pass rush from the Vikings, who are far more effective getting to the passer on carpet in their noisy dome stadium than on the road.
Dallas' defense is playing very well. But the Vikings have already played seven games against a 3-4 defense winning five of the seven games.
Favre can attack a Dallas secondary that does not have great talent at the corners, while keeping the rest of the Cowboys defenders honest with Adrian Peterson, arguably the best running back in the NFC.
5♦ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Dominic Fazzini
Dallas at MINNESOTA -3
I bounced back after one losing day with a winner Saturday with my complimentary selection on BYU, which routed Colorado State at home. And I'm going to keep things going with a winner on an NFL total today!
Running the ball is going to be the name of the game in today's Cowboys-Vikings playoff showdown. Minnesota star Adrian Peterson has not reached 100 yards on the ground in seven straight games, but the Vikings know they are going to need him to have a big day if they have a chance against Dallas.
The Cowboys have a two-headed rushing attack with Marion Barber and Felix Jones, and Dallas is going to lean heavily on them today to take the pressure off of Tony Romo. With both teams keeping the ball primarily on the ground, the clock should keep running much of the game and possessions are going to be at a premium, leading to fewer scoring opportunities.
Both Dallas and Minnesota possess outstanding defenses that are capable of dominating a game. With both units at the peak of their powers, moving the ball -- whether it be on the ground or through the air -- is going to be quite difficult today.
The under has dominated most of Dallas' games, with ATS trends of 8-2 overall and 4-1 on the road. And the total also has fallen short of the number in the vast majority of the Vikings' games, with the under on ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-0-1 in playoff games and 4-1 in Minnesota. Take the under to come in easily today.
4♦ COWBOYS-VIKINGS UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
Georgetown at VILLANOVA -6'
I continue to be red-hot with FREE selections, posting a 51-22 mark, including 28-8 with my last 36. Today's comp winner comes on the college hardwood as I lay the chalk with Villanova hosting Georgetown.
Villanova is making a case that they are one of the elite teams in college hoops. No problem laying the points with them at home in this one.
The Wildcats went to Louisville on Monday and scored a 92-84 win as a 3 ½-point underdog and got a huge 36 points from veteran Scottie Reynolds, who seems like he’s been in the Villanova program forever. He has been through the battles before and he knows they owe Georgetown a good beating or two.
Georgetown has won five straight against Villanova, including a stunning 56-54 win on the Wildcats’ home floor last season as a 6 ½-point underdogs. In fact, the Hoyas have won two straight inside The Pavilion at Villanova and three of four.
But this year, Villanova is putting up 88 points a game at home and shooting 52.3 percent from the floor, where they are a perfect 7-0 (5-1 ATS). The Hoyas don’t have the scoring to keep up with the Wildcats in this one.
Georgetown is on ATS slides of 7-19 in Big East action and 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 after a spread-cover. Villanova is on ATS surges of 6-1 at home, 7-1 on Sundays, 4-1 in conference action and 9-2 at home against winning teams.
I like the way this Villanova team has been put together. Lay the points and don’t worry about the Wildcats.
5♦ VILLANOVA
Karl Garrett
DePaul at ST. JOHN'S -13
2-0 Saturday comp play sweep!
G-Man has to lay it with the Red Storm this Sunday, as DePaul looks like a beaten team as they make the trip into New York today.
The Blue Demons have lost 5 in a row, a streak that started with a loss to Florida Gulf Coast of all teams!
DePaul is just 1-4-1 against the spread in their last 6 lined games, while St. John's stopped their recent slide with a solid win over Cincinnati their last time out.
The Johnnies have covered 8 of their last 11 lined games, and in the last series meeting, they clobbered the Demons, 84-63 in Chicago last February.
Red Storm roll strong here!
2♦ ST. JOHN'S
Chris Jordan
Dallas -1' at TORONTO
Since the Mavericks feel more at home when they're on the road, this road trip should be pleasant for them.
The Western Conference’s best road team kicks off a five-game Eastern trip today North of the border, and I'm banking on it to win this near pick'em clash with ease.
Only Boston and Cleveland have better points differentials on the highway than the Mavericks, who outscore their opponents by an average of 4.0 points away from home.
And make note, the Mavs won by 28 against the Raptors in Dallas and have won four of the last five in Toronto. And since Nov. 16, the Mavs have won 18 of 20 games when scoring 97 or more points. Today I have them scoring 102 points, and if you look at the line, I basically just need to win this one.
I don't see it being a problem.
3♦ MAVERICKS
Northern Arizona at PORTLAND ST -8'
Had Portland State the other night, when it blew out Northern Colorado, and I'll take the Vikings to do it all over again.
They come in off that 85-69 win over the team with the best record in the Big Sky Conference, knocking the Bears out of the top perch in the Sky while improving to 3-2 and getting within a game of leader Weber State (5-1 after a triple-overtime win last night).
PSU has won 13 straight at the Stott Center, dating back to last season, including nine straight over Big Sky teams; the Vikes are 6-0 at home this season.
I know Mike Adras' boys are in off a road win at Eastern Washington on Friday, 73-69. But the Lumberjacks are 4-6 on the road this season and have lost six straight to the Vikings over the past three seasons.
I like PSU to keep the momentum flowing tonight.
3♦ PORTLAND STATE
Brett Atkins
I improved to 6-2 with free plays over the last eight days with Saturday's winner on the college hardwood as USC went to UCLA and clobbered the Bruins. Tonight I've got another college hoops winner for you as I grab the points with Wake Forest as the Demon Deacons visit Duke.
This is a huge spread for two teams that have played some very tight games lately. I’ll grab the points with Wake Forest in this one as this ACC rivalry is going to end up coming down to the final two minutes.
The Demon Deacons have won eight of their last nine overall (5-4 ATS) and have survived their last three wins, by getting it done in overtime. They won 85-83 over Maryland on Tuesday but failed to cover the 3 ½-point line. They are 4-2 on the road and they score 74.2 points a game, and really perform defensively, limiting the opposition to 36.3 percent shooting.
They have had success on the road against good teams, going 5-1 ATS on the highway against winning teams, 6-2 ATS on the road overall and 4-1 ATS on Sundays. They have an outstanding nucleus and they are one of those teams whose athleticism causes trouble for the Blue Devils.
Now playing at Duke won’t be easy, but we’ve got a lot of points to play with here. Go ahead and grab the points with Wake Forest in this ACC contest.
4♦ WAKE FOREST
Jay McNeil
I guess I gave Purdue too much credit Saturday as it ran its losing streak to three games, dropping my record to 14-11 over the past 25 days. But I've got a sure-fire winner today that is going to get my back on track!
While the Cowboys and Vikings both have offenses capable of big plays at any time, both teams also have sturdy defenses that are tough to move the ball against.
I see both teams today attempting to establish their running games, which should lead to some long clock-eating drives that will minimize scoring opportunities throughout the game.
With both teams also having fierce pass rushes, I don't see either team trying to hit many big plays downfield, instead relying on quick screens and short passes in an attempt to keep the chains moving.
Eight of the Cowboys' last 10 games have gone under the total, while six of the Vikings' last eight games have gone under. The under is 4-1 in both Dallas' last five road games and Minnesota's last five home games. Definitely bet the under in today's game.
4♦ COWBOYS-VIKINGS UNDER