Charley Sutton
Despite combining for only 10 points in the second half yesterday, the Cardinals and Saints score enough points to go Over the Total, just like I said they would.
I handed you a strong Comp Play winner yesterday and I’m handing you another one today as I’m taking the Under on the Chargers-Jets game in San Diego.
Coming into this game, the Chargers have seen the Under come in 4 straight playoff games at home and have seen it go 5-2 their last 7 postseason games overall.
Going back a little further, the Under is on a 7-3 run in San Diego’s last 10 games in January.
Keep in mind, too, the Jets have seen the Under go 3-1-1 their last 5 games when catching between 3 1/2 and 10 points.
Today, scoring will be at a premium as these two stay Under the Total.
3 ♦ JETS-CHARGERS UNDER
Joel Tyson
College hoops winner for Sunday, and I am backing Connecticut over Michigan.
Last year UConn bested Michigan 69-61, but they were laying 16 points on their home floor. Today's line is will be easier for the Huskies to cover, and since UConn is off back-to-back conferences losses, and losses in 3 of their last 5, I would say chances they bounce-back today are very strong.
Michigan did dismantle Indiana earlier in the week, but they looked bad doing so, turining it over numerous times in the first half.
Connecticut has covered 3 of 5 lined away games, while Michigan has failed 3 of 5 lined home games.
Take the Huskies here in this late non-conference clash.
4♦ CONNECTICUT
Pete Angelo
Connecticut at Michigan
Brief out-of-conference affair here, and I'm going to play the Wolverines in this one.
I'm not the only one, apparently, who believe the Wolverines can win this game, just ask DeShawn Sims, Michigan's star pupil.
U Conn is a "pretty big team, easily beatable team. We'll come in play hard, and we'll be home. Definitely going to be a good game."
Personally, I don't believe he meant to sound like it came out, but it wreaks of confidence on how the Wolverines will handle this team.
Last year the Wolverines went to Storrs, Conn., and held a second-half lead on the top-ranked Huskies before losing, 69-61. This year, with the game in Ann Arbor, I think it's going to be tougher for the Huskies to pull out a win.
This is a must-win for the Wolverines, who need a big, non-conference win under their belt so the NCAA Selection Committee will have something to sink its teeth into when looking for schedule strength.
Take the home team here.
3♦ MICHIGAN
Chuck O'Brien
Take Indiana plus the points over Minnesota in Big Ten hoops action for Sunday's free play (FYI, I've hit six of my last eight free selections, including Kansas over Texas Tech on Saturday).
It’s been a rough start to the Big Ten season for the Hoosiers, who upset Michigan in their conference opener but have since lost three in a row. But in addition to beating the Wolverines (as a 4½-point home ‘dog), they also held their own against Illinois at home (losing 66-60 and cashing as a 6½-point pup).
Minnesota has played three conference road contests so far, beating crappy Iowa by 12 as a 10-point chalk, then losing at Purdue (79-60 as an 8½-point underdog) and at Michigan State on Wednesday (60-53 as a 6½-point pup). The Gophers are also 2-5 ATS in road or neutral-site games this year.
Last year, with a far worse team that barely any scholarship players, Indiana held its own against the Gophers, losing 67-63 as a nine-point home underdog and 62-54 as a 17-point road ‘dog. With those two covers, the Hoosiers are on a 4-1 ATS roll in this rivalry (and the underdog has cashed in six of the last eight).
The Gophers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 as a visitor and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 conference games, and they’re laying way too many points in this one.
3♦ INDIANA HOOSIERS
JIM FEIST
Mavericks vs Raptors
Take: Over
Reason: Dallas snapped a two-game losing streak with a win over Oklahoma City at home on Friday, 99-98. The Mavs have now failed to cover in three straight games and five of their last six. In fact, you would have to go all the way back to November 25/27 for the last time the Mavericks have covered two games in a row. The big problem for Dallas this season has been covering spreads at home, which usually means mid-to-big sized chalks. Once the club takes to the road where they are small road favorites or even dogs, they are 13-6 ATS. If we break that down even further, we find that the Mavs are 8-3 ATS as away favorites and 4-1 ATS as a road dog of pick to +5 1/2. The Mavericks also average more points on the road (101.26) than at home (99.9). The Raptors also snapped a two game losing streak on Friday with a win over the Knicks, 112-104. Still, the Raptors are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games. The one meeting between these clubs this season was a Dallas blowout at home, 129-101. It was the third straight win and cover for the Mavericks in this series. The Raptors are sixth in the league in scoring (103.63) and average just about the same at home this season. Difficult to pick a side in this one as both teams are tough in this situation, so we'll take the OVER here and look for lots of points.
James Patrick Sports
St. Louis vs. Charlotte
HC Rick Majerus has his Bilikens ready when they play NC Charlotte as St. Louis has cashed winning tickets at a (9-1-1) ATS pace in this series and SLU has won (4) of (5) in Charlotte and the Bilikens have won (12) of (15) ATS in Atlantic Ten Conference action. Our Sunday College Basketball complimentary selection is St. Louis Bilikens.
Great Lakes Sports
Providence at Marquette
Play: Marquette
The Marquette Golden Eagles are a very respectable 3-1 ATS vs conference opponents in their last four games, and the Golden Eagles are a very solid 8-3-1 ATS when playing in their last twelve games in the role of a home favorite of 7 to 12.5 points. The Providence Friars are a horrible 0-4 ATS when playing in their last four games in the role of a road underdog of 7 to 12.5 points. The Favorite is also a very solid 4-1 ATS their last five meetings in this series. We look for the Marquette Golden Eagles to grab the home ATS Win&Cover tonight.
Brian Graves
Dallas vs. Minnesota
Pick: Dallas +2.5
The Cowboys are playing better than anyone in the playoffs and they have a load of confidence especially defensively. If Romo is smart with the ball and the Cowboys control the Vikings pass rush then Dallas should win handily. I fully expect Favre to make his usual mistakes when the games actually matter and the Boys will be able to capitalize off of those. Take Dallas to win 27-17!
Jimmy Moore
Chicago @ Detroit
Pick: Chicago -125
The Red Wings are struggling to score with all of their injuries and they will be a tired team playing a Shootout game on Saturday in Dallas. Chicago is the best defensive team in the Western conference and they have shut out Detroit in their last 2 meetings. Chicago will be motivated to keep the Wings strugging today in Motown.
Charlie Scott
Georgetown vs. Villanova
Play: Georgetown +6
Besides for Guard Scotty Reynolds, Villanova has a pretty young squad and I feel they could struggle today vs a young highly recruited Georgetown team that plays disciplined and will play defense. I feel 6 points is too many for Villanova to be laying to a team that has as much talent and are as well coached as Georgetown.
MATT FARGO
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings
PICK: Under 46
I was on the over in this spot last week with the Cowboys as I saw a lot of value in that total. I see the value going the other way this week. Despite the recent success for the Dallas defense over the last five games against some very good offenses, the total posted here is actually higher than what it closed at last week. A lot of this could be due to the fact that every game went ‘Over’ the total last weekend and the public is certainly going to go after those ‘Overs’ again this week. Last week was the first time the Cowboys went ‘Over’ in their last five games and they are 8-2 to the ‘Under’ in their last 10 games. This definitely has to do with the defense that has really started playing well and is playing its best of the season right now as it is coming off two straight shutouts following by a 14-point effort in the second home matchup with the Eagles. Besides the Giants scoring 33 and 31 points in the two meetings this season, no other team scored more than 21 points against the defense in the other 15 games. The Dallas rushing defense finished fourth in the regular season and Minnesota will still look to get running back Adrian Peterson going because that is what makes Brett Favre good. Minnesota had the sixth ranked total defense in the NFL last season while allowing 20.8 ppg which was 13th. For some reason, the Vikings stop unit has caught a lot of flack this season for nothing being as strong yet the defense once again finished sixth overall and the scoring defense actually improved, allowing 19.5 ppg which was 10th in the league. The rushing defense dropped from first to second which is nothing. This is rather big as the Cowboys are a run first team and they have excelled over the last five games especially against the Eagles as they won the rushing battle by 142 yards in each of those last two games. Not having much success here mean a lot of second and third and long situations which is going to definitely hurt the offense. The secondary has been a problem for Minnesota this season as it was 19th and 20th in yards allowed through the air and yards per attempt allowed. The Vikings secondary is arguably the team's top concern heading into the playoffs and some of that can be traced to injuries. Cornerback Antoine Winfield missed a good portion of the season in the middle of the year and in the seven games he was not involved in, the defense allowed 26 or more points in four of those. In the nine games he made a contribution, they allowed 26 or more points only twice and both of those were on the road. In Minnesota’s last 10 games, they allowed 29 ppg in the five games on the road while only allowing 9.2 ppg in the five games at home. Dallas is 13-4 to the ‘Under’ in its last 17 games after outgaining its last opponent by 200 or more yards while Minnesota is 14-5 to the ‘Under’ in its last 19 games following a win by 10 points or more. Also, the ‘Under’ is 7-1 in the Cowboys last eight games after allowing fewer than 250 yards in their last game while the Vikings are 6-1 to the ‘Under’ in their last seven games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 3* Under Dallas Cowboys/Minnesota Vikings
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Dallas Mavs -1.5
Bottom Line: The Mavs are 13-6 SU & ATS on the road this season, and we'll back them on the road again today. Dallas has won 3 straight over the Raptors with all 3 of those wins coming by at least 10 points. While Toronto has been a pretty good home team this season, it's hard to ignore the fact that it is just 5-15 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Plus, Dallas is an awesome 9-0 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Take the Mavs.
DUNKEL INDEX
Dallas at Minnesota
The Cowboys look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games as a favorite between 1 and 3 points. Dallas is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Cowboys favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3)
Game 113-114: Dallas at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 139.269; Minnesota 138.643
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 1; 49
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Over
Game 115-116: NY Jets at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 138.784; San Diego 146.708
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 8; 46
Vegas Line: San Diego by 9; 42
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+9); Over
NBA
Dallas at Toronto
The Raptors look to take advantage of a Dallas team that is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite. Toronto is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Raptors favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+2)
Game 801-802: Dallas at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.387; Toronto 120.403
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 201
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 2; 206
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+2); Under
Game 803-804: Utah at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 119.669; Denver 123.669
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 4; 218
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NCAAB
Georgetown at Villanova
The Wildcats look to build on their 9-2 ATS record in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Villanova is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-5 1/2)
Game 805-806: Georgetown at Villanova
Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 69.174; Villanova 76.751
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Villanova by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-5 1/2)
Game 807-808: Toledo at Ball State
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 42.816; Ball State 48.459
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Ball State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (+8)
Game 809-810: DePaul at St. John's
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 52.144; St. John's 62.809
Dunkel Line: St. John's by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: St. John's by 13
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (+13)
Game 811-812: Bowling Green at Kent State
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 50.044; Kent State 61.423
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Kent State by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (-10 1/2)
Game 813-814: Akron at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 62.088; Buffalo 57.608
Dunkel Line: Akron by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Akron
Game 815-816: Minnesota at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 70.945; Indiana 63.361
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 10
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+10)
Game 817-818: Providence at Marquette
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 61.950; Marquette 69.711
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 8
Vegas Line: Marquette by 9
Dunkel Pick: Providence (+9)
Game 819-820: St. Louis at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 55.732; Charlotte 64.022
Dunkel Line: Charlotte by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Charlotte by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-7 1/2)
Game 821-822: Connecticut at Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 69.820; Michigan 66.656
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 3
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 1
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-1)
Game 823-824: Illinois State at Drake
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 61.905; Drake 59.310
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 4
Dunkel Pick: Drake (+4)
Game 825-826: Wake Forest at Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 67.754; Duke 83.140
Dunkel Line: Duke by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 14
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-14)
Game 827-828: San Jose State at Hawaii
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 51.369; Hawaii 58.324
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 7
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 2
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (-2)
Game 829-830: Loyola-MD at St. Peter's
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 50.467; St. Peter's 55.022
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: St. Peter's
Game 831-832: Northern Arizona at Portland State
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 48.086; Portland State 58.169
Dunkel Line: Portland State by 10
Vegas Line: Portland State by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (-8 1/2)
Game 833-834: Montana State at Sacramento State
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 50.395; Sacramento State 49.545
Dunkel Line: Montana State by 1
Vegas Line: Montana State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento State (+4 1/2)
Game 835-836: Boston U at Vermont
Dunkel Ratings: Boston U 49.439; Vermont 57.945
Dunkel Line: Vermont by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
Montreal at NY Rangers
The Canadiens look to take advantage of a New York team that is 3-10 in its last 13 home games. Montreal is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Canadiens favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+130)
Game 1-2: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.534; Washington 13.281
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-170); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-170); Over
Game 3-4: Chicago at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.305; Detroit 12.475
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+110); Under
Game 5-6: Montreal at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 10.389; NY Rangers 10.159
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+130); Under
Game 7-8: Calgary at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.706; Anaheim 11.696
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-110); Under
Jack Jones
Jets/Chargers OVER 42
The Chargers are scoring 28.4 ppg against teams who allow 22.1 ppg and they give up 21.9 ppg at home against teams who put up just 19.9 ppg. A lot has been made of the Jets defense, but their offense is hitting as well, scoring 23.4 ppg on the road against teams who allow 21.2 ppg.
A great system play here backing our Jets/Chargers OVER that says to take the OVER when it's between 35.5 and 42 points when one team has three straight wins and the other has at least four straight victories. 51-15 (77.3%) since 1983. Over the last three years this system is 4-1, over the last five years it's 10-2, and over the last 10 it's 20-6 for the OVER.
Drew Gordon
Dallas at TORONTO +2
38-25-3 roll L66 Free Plays, incl. 6-2 L8! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Mavericks/Raptors match up.
I know its tempting to take the Mavericks in this spot, as short road favorites against a Raptors team they've owned of late, but you have to fight that urge. Why? Because its exactly what the guys in Vegas are hoping for, as average bettors gobble up the Mavs at this price, and get buried because of it!
From a match up perspective, the Raptors not only play MUCH better ball at home, but are also playing better overall since the last time these two met. The improved play of Bargnani, Jack, and rookie DeRozan have helped the Raptors field a much more balanced offense to go along with Bosh. And its important to note, the Mavs are catching the Raptors in the midst of some red-hot offensive play, averaging 107 ppg on 49% shooting their L5 games!
From a situational aspect, I suspect the motivation will be lacking for a Dallas team coming off a tough come-from-behind win over the Thunder Friday. Fact is the Mavericks are not playing well right now, going 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS over their L5 games (incl. close wins over sorry-ass Detroit and an ugly effort vs the Thunder). Making it worse, Dallas has won 6 of their L7 at Toronto, and with Boston on deck, can you say lookahead game!
Bottom line, tough spot for Dallas to maintain their focus, as Boston awaits, but a very feisty Raptors team comes first. Look for Bosh and company to return the favor, as they take care of business Saturday afternoon at the Air Canada Centre!
Take Toronto plus the points over Dallas in this NBA match up.
1♦ TORONTO