Scott GramlingFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Patriots at BroncosFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 57FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Of the last 16 times that an NFL team with a win percentage of at least 75% has come off an ATS win to face an opponent with a winning record, all but two have gone Under the total. The Broncos and Patriots defenses have given up a total of 49 and 44 points, respectively, over each of their past three games combined. I’m not convinced that either team is going run with as much success as is being predicted: The Patriots began December by rushing for 88, 87 and 96 yards against the Texans, Browns and Dolphins, respectively, none of which stop the run particularly well. I take the 142-yard performance the following week at Baltimore with a grain of salt—as that Ravens team proved over the season’s final two weeks, it, like Miami, wanted nothing to do with a potential playoff berth. In New England’s past two games, not only were Buffalo and Indianapolis two of only seven teams to allow more than 2,000 rushing yards during the regular season, but those games were played on wet turf: Wet turf favors a running game, particularly a one-cut power scheme, because the offense is acting while the defense has to react. Denver, meanwhile, comes into this one having given up 87, 64 and 65 rushing yards over its past three games. Strange as it sounds, I think the Denver defense is actually more well-rounded and arguably more effective without Von Miller, who doesn't get enough blame for being a liability against the run, mainly because he's simply disinterested in anything aside from rushing the passer. I'm not saying to discount the New England running game entirely, but the matchup of New England running game vs. Denver run defense isn't as lopsided as it might seem at first glance. It’s the perfect recipe for a game to go Under the total, especially with a total this high. The media is understandably hyping this game to be about Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, but I expect it to be more about each team trying to control the ball, and for neither team to get into the 30s.
Jimmy Boyd
Southern Miss -2
The better team playing at home and laying such a small number makes Southern Miss an easy call in this matchup. Louisiana Tech has played a soft schedule recently. They had a big road win over Oklahoma, but have been a double-digit favorite in their last three games, and those three opponents have a combined 26-30 record on the season. That ends today in this matchup with Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles have a 15-3 record, and with home court advantage I think they easily pick up a win over the Bulldogs.
Statistically the Golden Eagles have several key advantages. On defense they are surrendering a mere 57.3 points per game at home. They will easily be one of the best defensive teams the Bulldogs have faced recently. On the offensive end of the court Southern Miss averages 80.1 points per game at home, so they should have no problem keeping pace with Louisiana Tech. The Bulldog’s opponents have surrendered an average of 75.3 points per game, so I think Louisiana Tech’s offensive statistics are very misleading. Louisiana Tech will also be without their leading scorer, Raheem Appleby, and that will prove to be too much to overcome against a great team like Southern Miss.
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Western Mich. -4.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Connar Tava, David Brown, Austin Richie and Shayne Whittington are all capable of big games inside the MAC. Those are your leaders for a Western Michigan team that is good enough to beat any MAC opponent on any given day. I'm feeling a low scoring game where the Broncos outscore Bowling Green by 8-14 points in this 2:00 PM EST game. Bowling Green has a solid Defense but Western Michigan should be able to keep the Falcons off balance and make more plays on the offensive end of the action. The last home game for WMU was a double digit win over Toledo. I think the Broncos could have another game like that in this match-up. Bowling Green struggles to score at times and if they have any mini drought in this game the Broncos could pull away early.
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Boston Celtics vs. Orlando MagicFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Boston Celtics -2FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Celtics have won the last 8 in the series vs Orlando and a win here earlier in the year as a 5 point dog against an Orlando team that was playing much better than they are now. Rondo is back and that should give the Celtics some shock value enthusiasm for a few games. There is a solid system in this game that plays against rested home dogs like Orlando that are off a home dog loss and failed to cover while scoring 100 or more and allowing 110 or more, vs an opponent off a home spread loss while also scoring 100 or more. These home teams are 2-9 straight up and to the spread. The Magic are on a 10 game losing streak and are 1-14 off a loss of 10 or more points, 2-12 after allowing 105 or more and they have lost 21 of 27 when playing with revenge. Look for Boston to get this one.
Nick Parsons
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic +2
These team have played twice this year and Boston has won both, both SU and ATS. This is a legitimate double-revenge scenario for the home side tonight.
Celtics' guard Rajon Rondo returned to action on Friday and promptly lost 107-104 to the Lakers. Rondo's been out of action since tearing his ACL back on January 25th, 2013 and we can expect him to struggle for the first few games until he works himself back into NBA shape.
The C's have been pretty terrible of late, allowing an average of 104.3 points in losing 13 of their last 15; also note that Boston has lost eight-straight on the road (and note that Boston is just 5-7 ATS this year when playing the role of favourite).
Orlando is a pretty horrible team as well, but there's no question it will be anxious to snap the Celtics' dominance in this series, having not beaten Boston since Christmas of 2010.
The Magic most recently lost 111-101 to Charlotte on Friday (note though, that contest was only two days removed from a triple OT loss to the Bulls).
A couple of horrible teams going head to head tonight, but I feel the motivational factors working in favor of the home side will turn out to be the difference in the final outcome.
Consider a second look at Orlando in this one.
Jesse Schule
Lightning vs. Hurricanes
Play: Over 5½
The Canes have now won five of seven in the New Year, and they find themselves right back in the thick of things in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Carolina will host the Lightning tonight, and both teams are playing in a back to back situation.
This will likely force Tampa to rest starting goaltender Ben Bishop, who played last night, and didn't look sharp, allowing five goals on 32 shots. Backup netminder Anders Lindback has played poorly all season, with a record of 5-10 and a 3.16 GAA. He hasn't been successful in previous meetings with Carolina, going 1-2 with a 3.03 GAA.
Anton Khudobin has been instrumental in the Canes success of late, winning seven of nine starts, posing a GAA of 2.00. With Cam Ward injured, and Justin Peters allowing eight goal in his last two starts, it seems that the Canes best option is to ride Khudobin on back to back nights.
Whoever is in net for Carolina will have to worry about Marty St. Louis, who is doing his best to make Steve Yzerman look a fool once again. Yzerman, the Lightning GM left St. Louis off the Canadian Olympic roster, for the second time in four years. Marty has been one of the league's Top 5 scorers during those four years, and he's showing no signs of slowing down, coming off a four goal outburst last night in Tampa.
The Lightning have really struggled on the penalty kill, surrendering 10 power-play goals in just their last seven games. Coming into Carolina with tired legs, they aren't likely to fix that overnight.
Steve RosenFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Patriots vs. BroncosFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 57FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This game is going to be Brady vs Peyton….but there is too much stock in these 2. The defense will show up on both sides tomorrow. The total is set too high as it is for a playoff mathchup. Great value on the Under!
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49ers vs. SeahawksFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 40½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The under has hit 4 in the last 5 games between these 2 teams. 2 under's happened this season. Seattle has hit the Under 6 times in a row this season in their last 6 games. SF has hit the Under in their last 2 games. This should be low scoring as both D will show up strong and keep the trend going for Under. Grab Under 40.5!
Red Dog Sports
Lightning vs. Hurricanes
Play: Under 5½
These two have combined for 39 overs and 47 unders. The last 5 meetings have reached 5, 3, 5, 5 and 5 goals. Look for a 3-2 type of game on Sunday afternoon.
Bill Biles
49ers vs. Seahawks
Play: Over 38½
I know both these teams have great defenses, but I believe this number is a bit to low. I think the final score will be somewhere in the 24-21 range and that will have the over hitting.
John RyanFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Toronto RaptorsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Toronto Raptors -9FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Several weeks ago, the media mocked the Eastern Conference for having just 2 teams with winning records, while the Western Conference had 12. The tide is steadily turning toward a more equitable situation with the East now having 4 teams over .500 and to more just 1 game under. Toronto has been one of those teams and they have surged up the Atlantic Division to take control with a 4-game lead over the Nets. The Lakers are looking toward ping-pong balls and a big lottery pick in this year's very deep draft. They have just one more win than last place Utah in the West. They did defeat the Celtics in their last game. However, they are in the third game of a 7-game road trip and motivation and team chemistry are at season lows. The simulator shows a high probability that Toronto will win this game by 14 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 91-48 ATS mark for 66% winners since 2008. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a struggling team winning between 25% to 40% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record. SIM projects that Lakers will score between 93 and 98 points among numerous others. In past games, Lakers are a money burning 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in road games when they score 93 to 98 points in a game over the last 2 seasons; 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when they allow 93 to 98 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take Toronto.
River City Sharps
Louisiana Tech +2.5
Pretty interesting game here today with two of the best teams in C-USA. Over the past several years, La tech has been an ATS darling, going 38-18 ATS in road games in January since 1997 and an even more interesting trend is the fact that Tech is 13-1 ATS after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons. La Tech comes into this game on a 7-game winning streak while Southern Miss comes off an impressive win over Rice. Tech scores 85 ppg while So Miss is scoring 73 points per contest. While So Miss may be a slightly better teams defensively, we don't think they can keep up with Tech offensively here today.
SPORTS WAGERS
DENVER -5½ over New England
We could easily make a case for either side here, as it’s not difficult to get behind the combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Belichick is one of the greatest coaches this league has ever seen with one of the sharpest football minds in history. He is calm, he knows how to plug holes and he knows how to exploit the opposition’s weaknesses. The way in which New England systematically broke down the Colts last week was a sight that is still fresh in the minds of everyone who watched it, especially those that wagered on the Colts and ripped up their tickets. Indy never stood a chance and now this Patriot team is being offered up what seems like far too many points. At least that’s what we’ve been hearing all week…….“Oh man, you can’t give Brady this many points”. “Brady owns Manning”. “New England can win this game without the points”. “100%, you have to take the points”. That’s all we’ve been hearing since the number came out. In fact, this number came out at -7 for a brief few moments on Sunday and one oddsmaker was quoted as saying, “We put out a bad number”. Yeah, ok. Don’t believe that for a hot second. The oddsmakers don’t put out a bad number for a game that is going to be one of the most wagered on events ever. The only thing missing from that quote was the chuckle under his breath.
We’re not going to waste your time and break down the X’s and O’s. You’ve already seen it or heard it broken down enough times to make you puke already and you’ll get more of it on Sunday with Curly, Larry and Moe. If Shannon Sharpe takes the marbles out of his mouth, you may even hear him muffle out an opinion. In any event, there is not a crystal ball in the world that can predict all the intangibles that affect the outcome when two evenly matched teams hook up. That aside, one should never ignore what the line is telling us and when something looks this good (New England plus the points), red flags should go off in your head. Had this game been played before New England defeated Indy and Denver struggled against San Diego, the masses wouldn’t be on the pooch. The public’s over-reaction to last week’s results has us backing the team that the oddsmakers don’t want us on because that’s usually the right side. So, while New England was preparing for the Colts, Peyton Manning has probably spent 16 hours a day for two weeks preparing to face New England’s weak defense. Lay the points.
SEATTLE -3 -120 over San Francisco
3½-points seems like an awful lot of points to be spotting a team that has been going as good as the 49ers have been (-3 -120 at Sportsinteraction) been. After all, the 49ers are on a seven game winning streak and are 8-2 on the road this year. San Fran’s offense has looked much sharper than the Seahawks recently but we keep going back to the same question. Why did the bookmakers add the hook to this game? Surely they could have made it a -3 and “even” things out a little bit in terms of action. That extra half-point in a game that almost everyone figures to be close looms large in the minds of all those on the fence in this contest. We’re not as convinced. The venue is the critical intangible in this game since both the teams play each other at least twice a year and home field has always been critical in winning. Add in the Seahawks being so dominant each time they play at home and it is hard to see just how the 49ers are going to score much. The Seahawks allowed only 12 points on average over their last eight games and they whacked San Fran, 29-3 in this year’s contest in Seattle. Colin Kaepernick only passed for 127 yards and no scores in the first meeting in Seattle and had three interceptions in that disaster. Vernon Davis was held to only 20 yards on three catches since the defense focused on him and Michael Crabtree was not playing. Anquan Boldin was held to only one catch for seven yards. Frank Gore ran for only 16 yards on nine carries. It was a complete failure in all facets and the lowest point of the season for the 49ers.
The Seahawks bring in a dominating defense but one that lost CB Brandon Browner in December. This is still a very formidable unit that is even better at home. Since the week 12 bye, the defense is only allowing about 10 points per game. The offense has been better in home games as well but has been held under 28 points in each of the last five weeks. So, while one must respect what the 49ers have accomplished, fading the Seahawks when they are home cannot be recommended. Russell Wilson has been under some criticism lately and this time of year it becomes an issue that is extremely overstated and over-exaggerated. Wilson makes plays in critical situations and figures to be up to the challenge here. Remember, all these outlets that cover the NFL don’t have 16 games to talk about all week. They have two and everything is blown out of proportion. What you won’t hear about is how the 49ers will be playing their fifth road game in six weeks and third in a row after playing in Carolina last week. Incidentally, they also got every call last week from the refs that killed any momentum the Panthers had the entire first half and into the third quarter. All that travel since Week 15, two tough road games in the playoffs, including one in frigid Green Bay has to take a toll and these are the things that the oddsmakers consider when posting a number while the television folks never mention it. Yeah, it’s tempting and maybe even enticing to take the 3½-points being offered but in terms of all the intangibles, the Seahawks have a big edge and that’s the way we’re playing it.
NOTE: Depending on where you shop there are different lines for this game everywhere. We still recommend playing Seattle @ -3½ if you can't get on for -3.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. RANGERS -½ +113 over Washington
Regulation only. These are two teams that are not equal and that are going in opposite directions. Washington’s decline started just before Christmas but anyone with a sense of hockey knowkledge could see it coming long before that. In 15 games since the 17th of December, the Caps have four wins in 15 games. One of those victories occurred against these Rangers in a game in which the Caps were bombarded with 40 shots on net and they were second best team on the ice. The Caps have dropped four in a row and over that span they have scored six goals while surrendering 13. Washington has also allowed nine goals against in its last two contests. There is a big correlation between losing and shots on net allowed. Washington has allowed the second worst shots on goal average per game in the NHL, ahead of only the Maple Leafs. The Caps are a team in peril because of a weak defense and just one producing line.
The Rangers have won two in a row and five of their past six. Their one loss over that span occurred against Tampa Bay in a game they ran into a super-hot Ben Bishop and lost 2-1. The Rangers have picked up points in seven of their past eight games and they have been outplaying, outshooting, out-chancing and out-working each team along the way. New York is a legit contender that is playing their best hockey of the season and its chances of defeating the vastly inferior Caps in regulation is much greater than 50%, (thus, the value) especially after losing the past two to the Caps this season. In this league, inferior teams seldom defeat superior one’s three games in succession. The Rangers will not be denied this time around.
Pass NBA & CBB
Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee at San AntonioFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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While the Bucks have lost 16 of their last 18 games overall and are listed as a big underdog at San Antonio, this is an interesting spot for the Spurs, who clearly treat this game against Milwaukee on the same level as their previous game against Portland or their next game against Oklahoma City.
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This is a textbook "letdown and lookahead sandwhich", however the way the Bucks have been playing the last few weeks we can't justify taking the points. We do, however, believe we are getting solid line value with the Under here, as the Spurs will likely just look to get done with this game and move on to the next big test, while the Bucks have been held to 85 points or less in four of their last six games. Spurs looking to get the win and nothing more - resting players late and not looking for style points. Not sure who covers, but this one stays under the total.
Jeff Alexander
Oregon -2½
Oregon started 13-0 and then lost 3 straight. With those losses serving as a huge motivator, I expect the more talented Ducks to make it 4 consecutive wins over their in-state rivals. Oregon State is coming off a home loss to Cal. That doesn't bode well for the Beavers as they are on a 14-37 ATS slide in home games off a home loss. The Ducks have been a good investment on the road where they are on a 6-1-1 ATS run. They are even 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games versus teams like Oregon State that have a home winning percentage greater than .600. The road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Oregon State. Bet Oregon.