Steve Janus
Boston Celtics -2
The Celtics may have struggled in their first game with Rondo back in the lineup, but I don't see them losing two straight with the former All-Star leading the charge. Boston is a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs the Magic, including a 91-89 road win as a 5.5-point favorite and 120-105 home victory as as 1.5-points favorite this season.
The Magic have fallen and fallen hard, losing each of their last 10 games to fall to a mere 10-30 overall. One of the telling signs that Orlando is simply not motivated to win at all right now is the fact that 8 of those 10 losses came by at least 10 points. The Magic are just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games revenging a road loss to an opponent, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 in games where the total is set between 190 and 199.5 points and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games with a spread set between +3 to -3.
Dave Price
Iowa -9
This is a favorable spot for Iowa. The Hawkeyes will be the fresher and more prepared team as they haven't played since Jan. 12. The Golden Gophers just played Thursday so this is a quick turnaround for them, and they aren't even close to as deep as Iowa, which basically has two starting fives. The Hawkeyes really push the tempo and that will leave Minnesota fatigued down the stretch. Iowa is 10-0 at home this season where it is winning by 28.9 points on average. It is on a 19-0 run at home going back to last season, and this streak includes a 21-point win over the Gophers. Iowa is 18-6 ATS in all home games over the last 2 seasons. A good chunk of Minnesota's offense comes from the three-point shot. Of the 57 shots it averages per game, 22 are three-point attempts. This plays right into Iowa's hands. The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS in games played 15 games or more into the season versus teams who attempt 21 or more three-point shots per game. Iowa has won these games by an average score of 72.9 to 61.1. Lay the points.
Joe Gavazzi
Seattle -3 & Under 40
Huge situational edge for the Seahawks in this one. San Francisco is playing on the road for a fourth consecutive week following back to back road wins in west to east travel games at Green Bay and Carolina. Seattle is playing their fourth consecutive home game on a field where under QB Wilson they have outscored opponents by an average margin of 29-13, good for a record of 16-1 SU, 12-4 ATS, extending their recent dominance at Century Link to 23-10 ATS. That includes the most recent two meetings on this field, where the Seahawks last year defeated the Niners 42-13, and in week 2 of this year by a count of 29-3. Plenty of love for the fact that the Niners enter with the longest winning streak of any remaining playoff contender. That is 8 straight victories, running their closing rush to 13-3 SU, 12-3 ATS. They have outrushed their last 6 foes by an average of 154-81, to make the running game a statistical push against the ground oriented Seahawks. Last week, the Niners outrushed Carolina 126-93 and profited from a +2 in the turnover margin for a 23-10 road victory that avenged an earlier 10-9 loss at Carolina. QB Kaepernick also features a playoff experience edge against counterpart Wilson. Kaepernick is 4-1 SU in the post season, including 3-0 on the road. Last week, Seattle outrushed New Orleans 174-108 and with the benefit of a +1 in the turnover column, emerged with a 23-15 victory, failing to cover only because of the success of a 2-point conversion by the Saint. In an old style NFL football game featuring defense and running games, must give the slightest of edges to the Seahawks in what figures to be a low-scoring tussle.
Doug Upstone
Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan
Play: Bowling Green +6½
On Sunday, Play Against home teams as a favorite or pick like Western Michigan who score 67-74 points a game, against a sharp defensive team (Bowling Green) who allows 63 or fewer points a game, after scoring 50 points or less. The rationale here has been the home team has a negative carryover and against a quality defense squad they are just 11-35 ATS since 2009.
Rickie Robbins
Washington Capitals vs. NY Rangers
Play: NY Rangers -1½ +207
The Washington Capitals head to the Big Apple to take the ice with the New York Rangers Sunday.
Struggling Washington picked the wrong time to face a hot Columbus squad in a 5-1 defeat. These teams are headed in the opposite direction right now with the Blue Jackets winning number five in a row and the Capitals dropping their fourth straight. The Caps experienced issues at both ends of the ice with the lone tally coming off the stick of John Carlson who gave the visitors a shortlived spark that cut the lead to 3-1 before the CBJ lit the lamp twice in the third for an easy win. Philipp Grusbauer took the loss with three goals given up on 14 shots before he was replaced by Brad Holtby.
The Rangers have been in the midst of starting a hot streak and continued on that path with a 4-1 victory at Ottawa. New York has now won five of six as they return home to face Washington on Sunday. Things didn't start on the right foot with the Senators taking a 1-0 lead at the 3:37 mark of the opening frame but the Rangers evened it half way through the first and it was all NYR thereafter. The balanced attack saw goals from Mats Zuccarello, Rick Nash, Derek Stepan and Brad Richards while Cam Talbot picked up the win with 29 saves. This was a solid performance against an Ottawa club that had beaten the Rangers three times this season.
Washington has been in a bit of a funk and the Rangers have been playing well so I lean to the home team who are 6-2 in the last eight visits from Washington. There are strong under trends as well, but for now I will back the hotter team.
Larry Ness
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Bowling Green at Western Michigan
Pick: Western Michigan
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Louis Orr was named the MAC Coach of the Year for Bowling Green's performance during the 2008–09 season, when the Falcons finished in a tie for first in the MAC East and ended 19-14 overall (lost a 1st round NIT game). Orr had taken Seton Hall to two NCAA bids in his five seasons there but he hasn’t had much success here at Bowling Green. Since that 2008-09 season, his Falcons have gone 14-16, 14-19, 16-16 and 13-19. His son Chauncey scored 14 points in 12 minutes of action in BG’s first game this season, then was lost to a season-ending knee injury.
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Bowling Green does own five legitimate contributors but the results are just not there. Clarke (11.5-4.6 APG) and Henderson (10.1-4.1) man the backcourt with the 6-8 Holmes (14.6-7.7) and the 6-7 Parker (12.8-4.9) surrounding 6-10 center Black (6.2-7.3) up front. However, BG’s 67-57 win at Central Michigan on Jan 15 ended a four-game slide in which the team had averaged a woeful 47.5 PPG. Bowling Green is 7-9 on the season, including 1-4 on the road (beating only Morehead St).
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Western Michigan tied for first in the MAC West last year at 10-6 with Toledo and won two games in the CBI, before losing at George Mason in the semis (finished 22-13). This year’s team is 9-6 (2-1 in the MAC), after losing an ‘ugly’ game the last time out, 56-37 at Eastern Michigan (Broncos made just 12 of 42 FGs, for 28.6%). However, the Broncos owns an outstanding guard in Brown (18.8) plus Richie (7.8) and Klein (5.9) support him on the perimeter. Up front, the 6-5 Tava (13.1-5.3) is a quality small forward plus the 6-11 Whittington (13.8-9.0) is one of the MAC’s best big men.
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Western Michigan should well-remember losing at Bowling Green 70-60 last year (only meeting) and should also be eager to get back on the court after that AWFUL performance at EMU. Note that Western Michigan is 6-1 SU at home, while averaging 84.7 PPG. The team's lone home loss came against North Dakota St. Let me note that North Dakota St has won at Notre Dame this year and was playing with revenge from a 72-71 OT loss to Western in last year’s CBI. Broncos take this one with “room to spare!”
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as the home favorite over the visiting Hokies of Virginia Tech.
Something has got to give here, as the Hokies have lost 3 in a row, and 5 of their last 6. The Irish have also lost their last 3, and 4 of their last 5 overall.
Still, prefer to lay the points in this one, as tonight they are going to honor former Notre Dame coach Digger Phelps by unfurling a banner in the rafters to commemorate ND's historic win that ended UCLA's 88 game winning streak back in the 1970's.
That is the kind of "intangible" that I like, and the fact Notre Dame is also 9-3 straight up at home taking on a Va-Tech team that has just one straight up road win while losing the other three away games.
Irish to end their three game slide and increase Tech's skid to four in a row.
Take Notre Dame.
2♦ NOTRE DAME
Craig Davis
The Big 10 is, by far, the toughest conference in college basketball, with at least six teams capable of winning the title.
The two teams playing today have something in common... and what they accomplished was something no one thought they could do... beat Ohio State.
The Buckeyes checked into the Iowa game as the #7 team in the country, with only a road overtime loss to Michigan State as their only loss of the season.
Well, one week later the Buckeyes are probably going to fall to #18-20 because they lost to an unranked Minnesota team. But which was worse... the road loss to unranked Minny or the home loss to 20th ranked Iowa?
I say losing at home is always worse because in a conference as tough as this, you must win your home games because you know you're going to lose some roadies.
Both Minnesota and Iowa are decent teams, but Iowa has come a long way from last year and if you look at their resume so far, all of their losses are against top 10 teams (at least they were top 10 when they played them).
Iowa State came from 9 down to beat the Hawks by three at home. Villanova beat them on a neutral floor by five in a game that saw both teams score in the 90s. And finally, they lost by four at #4 Wisconsin.
Iowa wants to make a statement today and this is a perfect team to get it done against. The Gophers are completely different on the road than they are at home and I see Iowa winning this game by at least 12.
3♦ IOWA
Scott Delaney
My free pick keeps in the theme of totals, as I like the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns to keep things low and stay under the posted number. In the NBA, one thing you have to remember about these guys is they're professionals, they play every single day and they can't wait for slow days.
And given this is a Sunday - the 'end of the week' - you best believe these two teams will be playing at a slower pace, looking to ease into next week's action.
The Suns are in the midst of a five-game homestand, and have lost four of their last five games. And even though four of the last five have gone over, they have a date with Indiana on deck in a few days. The focus for the Suns is to slow the pace and keep things at a minimum.
As for the Nuggets, they've lost two of three and have gone over in four straight. This team is used to streaks of totals. Denver went over in seven of its first 10 games, then stayed under in 15 of its next 18 and has now gone over in nine of its last 11.
So how do you know when the tide will turn? The Nuggets are back out on the road after sandwiching a home game in two nights ago. They go up to Portland for a Northwest showdown in four days.
Trust me, both teams are ripe for an under.
5♦ Suns/Nuggets Under
Brad Wilton
Going to lay the big wood with the Spurs here on Sunday as my comp play, and why not?
Milwaukee looks to be playing for the most ping-pong balls in next season's draft, as the Bucks come to the Alamo town losers of 8 in a row after last night's setback in Houston, and the points have also been unkind to the Bucks lately, as Milwaukee is on a 2-6 spread slide during their current losing stretch.
San Antonio was off on Saturday night, and they are playing off a Friday home loss to Portland, so they should be itching to run the Bucks off the floor, especially since Milwaukee was pretty much just run of the floor last night in Houston.
The Spurs have won the last 3 series meetings, and 7 of the last 8 overall. They are also 6-2 against the spread in those 8 games.
Go ahead and lay the big lumber as San Antone has their way with unrested Milwaukee.
3♦ SAN ANTONIO
Brett Atkins
My free play for tonight is on the Oregon Ducks in their clash with intrastate rival Oregon State, as the Beavers don't have the personnel to keep up with Dana Altman's troops, even if this one is Corvallis.
Here we have the basketball version of the Civil War in this rivalry, and it's the right spot for Oregon to snap out of its funk. The Ducks have been struggling, I know this, but if there were ever a game for this team to get motivated for and perform at its best.
Oregon has a core of guards that can compete with the best backcourts in the nation. And make note three of Oregon's four players who average double figures on the scoreboard are guards. I don't think the Beavers have enough defensive tenacity to keep up with the Ducks' guards.
The Beavers allow 74.5 points per game and will get caught overplaying themselves into a frenzy. Oregon will come together to snap this skid and score a much-needed win, while reminding itself how good it can play.
Oregon is 5-1 in Civil Wars during Altman's previous three seasons, and the Ducks are poised for a win in this game.
4♦ OREGON
Sean Michaels
How can you not take the Under (40) in the Seattle-San Francisco game.
Does anyone really think these two rivals are going to go crazy putting points on the scoreboard when the first two meetings this season resulted in final scores of 29-3 in Seattle and 19-17 in San Francisco?
Both teams are stout defensively. Both teams have outstanding ground games. Both teams have strong pass rushes and secondaries.
With Seattle playing its fourth straight game at home, the CenturyLink Field crowd will undoubtedly cause a few hiccups in the San Francisco play-calling. But, at the same time, the 49ers, playing their fifth road game in six weeks and having already survived the arctic conditions of Green Bay and the tough environs of Carolina, will not be intimidated and will counter with Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick on the ground.
Could easily see this one being a 17-14 or 20-17 finale one way or another as it wouldn't surprise me if the 49ers pull off the upset. But the way to play it is to simply take the Under.
2♦ SEATTLE-SAN FRANCISCO UNDER
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Minnesota vs. IowaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play:Minnesota +9.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota has played three true road games, compiling a 2-1 record both straight up and against the spread. The Gophers won 74-59 at Richmond and 68-65 at Penn State. The only road setback for Richard Pitino's squad came at Breslin Center in East Lansing on Jan. 11. Minnesota took on Michigan St. as a 10.5-point underdog and led by a 41-36 count at intermission. The Gophers led by as many as 10 in the second half, only to go 13 minutes without making a shot from the field. Nevertheless, they rallied from a six-point deficit with more than two minutes remaining to force overtime. But Minnesota would fall apart in the extra session. In fact, Michigan State outscored the Gophers 16-4 in OT to pull out an improbable spread cover.
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The point is that Minnesota should be 3-0 ATS on the road. This afternoon the Gophers take on an Iowa team coming off a big win. Although the Hawkeyes have had a solid week to get ready for their Big Ten rival, they could possibly fall into a letdown scenario here. Minnesota beat Ohio State on Thursday for a big win, but it has had two days to move past that and get its focus on Iowa. I like this 14-3 Iowa squad, but does it deserve this sort of separation from a 14-4 Minnesota squad? When I say separation, I'm referencing the 9.5 points the oddsmakers have the Hawks favored by as of early this morning. I've always been fond of backing quality teams catching big numbers as underdogs. That's the case here and I'm all about the Gophers +9.5 points at Iowa.
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49ers at SeahawksFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: SeahawksFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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All I'm hearing is that quarterback Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers offense is now at 100% and will come away with the win here - However bottom line is that the Seahawks have dominated San Francisco in their last two meetings in Seattle with the Seahawks outscoring the 49ers by a whopping 71-16. So until the 49ers can show that they can be competitive here in Seattle - How to make the Seahawks the strong release in this spot today. 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Seattle. 49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Seattle the play here.
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IOWA (-9) over MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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While Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State garner all of the national attention from the Big 10, Iowa is very quietly putting together a nice season and will be a team we'll be watching closely as we head into the heat of the season. The Hawkeyes are 14-3 straight up with the only losses coming to nationally-ranked Villanova, Iowa State and Wisconsin. The team has also won 19 straight at home and is 29-10 ATS the last three years on this floor. That doesn't bode well for the Gophers, who are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games and 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. The Hawkeyes use some home cooking for an easy blowout win.