OC DooleyFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Hofstra +17FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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These two teams were supposed to face each other early in the month of December but due to inclement weather the tilt was “pushed up” to this evening which in turn creates a very rare handicapping situation for a “regular season” tilt as SMU is not forced to play on back-to-back days. Participating in contest on back-to-back days is normal for conference and postseason tournaments where travel is NOT involved. However the Mustangs yesterday both won-and-covered on the road at Central Florida and had to make a quick turnaround to “travel” back for this home game. Hofstra has not played since Wednesday when sharpshooter Zeke Upshaw nailed SEVEN different three-pointers from behind the arc which tied an all time school single game record. While SMU is led by Hall of Fame head coach Larry Brown, the current mentor for Hofstra is also a veteran. From 1998-through-2013 Joe Mihalich coached at Niagra (265 wins) where his team made a pair of NCAA and three NIT postseason appearances. Mihalich coached teams are known for an UP TEMPO style of play and in the past decade have averaged a healthy 70 points per contest. That style of play works “against” unrested SMU. Not only is Hofstra 8-2 ATS this season as an underdog, they are also a dazzling 12-3 ATS/ROAD the past three years versus winning teams when “getting” points from the oddsmakers
Teddy Covers
Sacramento vs. Oklahoma City
Pick: Sacramento
Oklahoma City has been a remarkably consistent ‘zig-zag’ team since Russell Westbrook got hurt again. Their longest SU or ATS winning or losing streak over their last dozen contests has been two games, and they’re coming off a pair of win and covers in their last two contests.
And it’s surely worth noting that both of those contests came against potential playoff opponents for the Thunder; much bigger games than this one for the home favorite. It’s a clear flat spot for a team that has repeatedly failed to step up in these ‘flat spot’ type ballgames.
Meanwhile, Sacramento is playing their best basketball of the year right now. At 14-24 SU, no one is going to confuse the Kings with a playoff team. But they’ve gone 8-3 ATS in their last eleven games, consistently beating market projections. Mark Malone’s squad has won SU as an underdog five times since Christmas, including wins over the Heat, Rockets, Blazers and T-Wolves.
Coming off a frustrating one point loss at Memphis, I’m anticipating another strong effort here from a Sacramento squad that took OKC to the wire in their lone previous meeting; a two point loss for the Kings. No surprise here if Sacramento’s big three – Demarcus Cousins, Isaiah Thomas and Rudy Gay – keep the Kings within striking distance right through the final buzzer.
Hollywood Sports
New England at Denver
Prediction: Under
In this epic matchup between two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, look for both head coaches to help their leading player by keeping the other guy off the field. Bill Belichick's long-time strategy is to dare Peyton Manning to hand off the ball by overplaying the pass. And the Patriots have evolved into a running team that has rushed the ball 89 times for 501 yards in their last two games.
All this running the ball chews time off the clock, keeps their team's defense fresh -- and, most importantly, keeps the opposing QB off the field. That is a fantastic formula for the Under. As it is, the Broncos have played 4 straight games Under the Total against AFC opponents. And the Under is a decisive 44-18-2 in Denver's last 64 games after a point spread loss. With the number in the high 50s, take the Under.
Bruce Marshall
Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic
Pick: Boston Celtics
Not a lot to choose from here, as Boston recently snapped a 9-game SU losing last Wednesday vs. Toronto, while Orlando losing streak now at 10 after Friday loss to Bobcats. What to do? Tempted to take any points available with Celtics, who have shown signs of breaking slump in past week with covers in 4 of last 5 prior to facing Lakers on Friday. Meanwhile, Magic remain a very tough sell, more so considering subpar 6-12 spread mark at Amway Center. Note Celtics did win twice over Orlando in November, romping 120-105 at home on Nov. 11 after taking a 91-89 road verdict way back on Nov. 8 (when neither team could shoot as well as even 40% from the floor). Those results have upped Celtic series win streak to 10, although that is mostly a relic of the bygone Garnett-Pierce-Allen playoff years.
Andre Gomes
Lakers / Raptors Over 203.5
I expect this contest to be quite similar to the one that the Raptors played already this week against the Bucks and ended up w/ 210 points, b/c TOR's mindset will be IMO to "outscore" the Lakers in their game…
After losing @BOS, TOR bounced back and defeated MIN at home in the last game. Despite scoring "only" 94 points, note that TOR had a pretty efficient offensive game w/ 114 Off. Rtg! The "problem" was that the game had a ridiculous slow pace - it was the second slowest paced game of the season for TOR b/c offensively, TOR was red hot from the outside w/ 11-24 3pts and had a nice mark of 26 assists - a good sign for today's game…
TOR's Pick n roll game shouldn't have any problems to score against LAL that is playing K. Marshall @ PG & frontcourt due of Pau Gasol & R. Kelly!
However, since K. Marshall is running the show in LA, the Lakers are showing some nice offensive flow - a first-pass PG playing for M. D'Antoni's system is really a primary "need" for the team, and LAL has scored 118, 114 and 107 points! Because they play w/ such small ball lineups, I expect them to cause some problems to TOR defense that usually plays w/ 2 "bigs" in Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas!
AC Dinero
Siena +10.5
Both teams come in off a loss, though Iona has less of them in total. This is your classic match up style: fast paced offense vs half court defense. Not surprisingly, Iona has the edge in the offensive stats and Siena has an almost equally edge in the defensive ones. What I like about Siena is they own a pretty sizable edge on the boards, almost 5 per game, have the more productive bench, which could be key if they can't slow the tempo, and the defense has been very good in recent games, giving up less than 39% from the floor. I don't think they will win straight up, but double digits is a nice comfort zone.
Wunderdog
Virginia Tech at Notre Dame
Pick: Virginia Tech +10.5
Virginia Tech has won five of the last nine. This team is tops in the ACC in three-point shooting, a sizzling 45.5%. Plus, the play great defense, second in the ACC in three-point defense, and allowing 39.2% from the field overall. They are a dog against a Notre Dame team that is 11th in the conference in points allowed and weak at defending the three (13th in the ACC). The Fighting Irish are 10-7 overall, and 1-3 in the ACC after a 74-66 loss at Maryland on Wednesday night. Notre Dame is on a 1-4 ATS run, 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, and the Fighting Irish are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. the ACC. Play Virginia Tech.