Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday January, 20

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

LA Lakers at Toronto
The Raptors look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 home games against teams with a losing road record. Toronto is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+5)

Game 801-802: LA Lakers at Toronto (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 119.022; Toronto 119.179
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 199
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+5); Under

Game 803-804: Dallas at Orlando (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 118.527; Orlando 116.142
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 2 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 805-806: Boston at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 120.633; Detroit 115.850
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 5; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 185
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-1 1/2); Over

Game 807-808: Oklahoma City at Denver (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 126.718; Denver 123.491
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1; 209
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-1); Under

NCAAB

Indiana at Northwestern
The Hoosiers look to take advantage of a Northwestern team that is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 home games. Indiana is the pick (-12) according to Dunkel, which has the Hoosiers favored by 16. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-12)

Game 809-810: Indiana at Northwestern (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 77.940; Northwestern 62.028
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 16; 142
Vegas Line: Indiana by 12; 137
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-12); Over

Game 811-812: Drake at Northern Iowa (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 56.419; Northern Iowa 67.243
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 11; 133
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 10; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-10); Under

Game 813-814: Illinois State at Southern Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 58.835; Southern Illinois 53.211
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 5 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 1 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (-1 1/2); Under

Game 815-816: Clemson at NC State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 63.022; NC State 74.472
Dunkel Line: NC State by 11 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: NC State by 9 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: NC State (-9 1/2); Over

Game 817-818: Iona at Rider (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 60.263; Rider 57.898
Dunkel Line: Iona by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 4
Dunkel Pick: Rider (+4)

Game 819-820: Furman at NC-Greensboro (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 43.707; NC-Greensboro 50.301
Dunkel Line: NC-Greensboro by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: NC-Greensboro by 8
Dunkel Pick: Furman (+8)

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San Francisco at AtlantaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: San Francisco -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Falcons finished with the best record in the NFC at 13-3 and disposed of one of the hottest teams in the NFL last week. But, there are still a lot of question marks with this team. All three of their opponents in the NFC South finished below .500, so they had six divisional games against below .500 teams. Their schedule saw them facing the AFC West which had three of the four teams below .500 as well. The only AFC West team they played with a winning record was Denver in week two, before Peyton Manning got his sea-legs under him. The Falcons went through the last 11 games of their schedule without playing a single team that made the playoffs. The path for this team to get here was as easy as it gets. Does that mean they are a total fraud? No. This is a solid team and at home they are very good. They beat the Seattle Seahawks last week to get here. Seattle is a great team, but also one that was playing on the opposite coast for the second straight week and that clearly made the difference last week as they fell behind 20-0. Once Seattle showed up, they handily beat the Falcons. San Francisco is a lot like Seattle, but they aren't as road weary, and they have more experience. It's hard to imagine San Francisco putting up a dead half like Seattle did last week and if they don't Atlanta is going to have their hands full. The 49ers are on a mission after coming so close last year, so I expect them to finish the job here in Atlanta. Teams that come close and fail one year are very focused the next. While Russell Wilson had his way, picking his spots for 60 yards on just seven carries, the San Francisco offense is geared toward giving another great running QB an opportunity to make plays. Since the insertion of Colin Kaepernick, the Niners’ offense has gone from good, at 23.6 points per game to elite at 28.1 ppg. When you couple that with a defense that ranks #2 in fewest points allowed, it will be the most complete team Atlanta has faced all season - and a far cry from the type of talent they played most of the season. The Niners have been playing above the line for just about three years now at 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36, while the Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five playoffs games. Since Harbaugh took over, the Niners have stepped up their game vs. the best teams, going a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. teams at .750 or better. Take the Niners here (buy to -3).

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San Francisco at AtlantaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The top two seeds in the NFC have advanced to this Sunday's NFC Championship Game, and while we are releasing the ATS winner of this contest as a premium selection we also feel there is line value in playing the Under here. Both Atlanta and Green Bay played high scoring games last week, but defense will likely be the name of the game this Sunday. The 49ers will be up to the task of shutting down the Falcons rushing attack that posted their highest yardage total of the season last week, while the same is true for the 49ers rushing offense last week vs. Green Bay. Atlanta has seen seven of their nine home games fall under the total this season, and have gone under the total in ten of their last 12 games following a scoring outburst of 30 or more points. Defensive battle in Atlanta this Sunday leads to an easy Under! 5* Play on San Francisco vs. Atlanta Under.

Prediction Machine:

Paul's Pick: San Francisco -4 @ Atlanta (Covers 56.4%)

While it may not have looked that way for the first three quarters of the game, Seattle should have won over Atlanta on Sunday. The Seahawks turned three promising first half drives deep into Atlanta territory into zero first half points due to a Marshawn Lynch fumble, an ill-prepared fourth down attempt (spread the field, get under center, quick count, sneak the ball - every time - but if not that, Lynch should probably get the ball) and a bizarre end to the half. A furious second half comeback ultimately gave the Seahawks a lead with 31 seconds remaining. More importantly, it provided a glimpse into what should be expected in Atlanta this week.

All told, Seattle out-gained Atlanta overall (491 yards to 417 yards) and on a per-play basis (7.4 to 6.8) by significant margins and the teams were equal in turnovers. Atlanta's dominance on the ground against a very good Seahawks' defense was certainly surprising. Removing one 45-yard run by Jacquizz Rodgers that was totally uncharacteristic of what we have seen from either Rodgers or the Seattle run defense, though, gives Atlanta a reasonable, 25 carries for 122 yard day (still better than expected, yet important for context). Rookie quarterback Russell Wilson threw for 10.1 yards-per-pass and averaged 8.6 yards-per-rush.

Wilson only attempted to run the ball seven times, but he had his way on those runs and, with Atlanta playing mostly man coverage on pass plays, Wilson had open lanes to run on virtually every play. He also had an exploitable mismatch with his tight end, Zach Miller, lined up against a safety or corner. San Francisco has a better running, young quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, who just lit up a man coverage team for an all-time quarterback rushing record (181 yards) and who has two very good-to-great tight ends (Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker) of his own. Especially with the later start (noon PT instead of 10 am PT) and without the 49ers having to travel a great distance last week, look for San Francisco to start strong to build an early lead and likely not have to look back.

San Francisco is 12-4-1 straight-up and 10-6-1 against-the-spread versus the fourth toughest NFL schedule to-date. The 49ers are 5-3 SU and ATS on the road with away wins and covers over playoff teams Green Bay and New England - two teams that are better than Atlanta. As four to ten point favorites, San Francisco finished 6-3-1 ATS. Over the course of the entire season, the 49ers rank second in yards-per-play and sixth in fewest turnovers-per-play, third in (fewest) yards-per-play allowed and first (by a large differential) in yards-per-play margin. With Colin Kaepernick taking over at quarterback on November 19, those numbers have actually all improved, with Kaepernick himself accounting for 8.3 yards-per-pass and 6.6 yards-per-rush, while turning the ball over on just 1.7% of his plays. As presently constructed, San Francisco ranks among the top five in the NFL in our strength-of-schedule-adjusted running, passing, run defense and pass defense metrics. With tackle Joe Staley emerging from last week healthy enough to be considered "probable" for this game and defensive lineman Justin Smith playing well (enough) against Green Bay, the 49ers are also very healthy. They may not generate a ton of turnovers or have home field advantage, but, it is very difficult otherwise to find weaknesses with this team.

Atlanta is 14-3 SU and 9-7-1 ATS against the 22nd ranked NFL schedule for 2012-13. Head coach Mike Smith and the Falcons play incredibly disciplined football in that they rarely commit penalties or turn the ball over. Coupled with home field in this game, that is just about all that Atlanta has going for it. The Falcons will have to play something close to a perfect game and hope that San Francisco helps them out in order to win this game. Obviously, this is possible since Atlanta does win straight up 34.6% of the time in our simulations, but it is not likely. The Falcons were out-gained on a per-play basis over the course of the season (including in the playoffs last week, which was their first game against a playoff team since Week 5) despite playing an easy schedule. Teams with young, athletic quarterbacks, like Carolina with Cam Newton (twice), Seattle with Russell Wilson and even Washington with Robert Griffin III (for a half before injury) have moved the ball at will against this defense that has allowed over six yards-per-play (only four teams, including Atlanta, were that bad this season) and 4.8 yards-per-rush (just four teams were worse in 2012). While protecting the football and not committing penalties are important traits not to be ignored, Atlanta does not rank in the top five overall in any of our metrics. In fact, the Falcons are only in the top ten overall in pass efficiency.

Seattle self-destructed early last week and still almost won over Atlanta. San Francisco presents an even tougher challenge to the Falcons and is not likely to hurt itself as badly. According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, San Francisco wins over Atlanta 65.4% of the time and by an average score of 26.7-20.1 As four point favorites who win by almost a touchdown on average, the 49ers cover the spread 56.4% of the time, which would warrant a $42 play from a normal $50 player. The UNDER (49.5) is barely playable.

Paul's Pick: Baltimore +9.5 @ New England (Covers 54.9%)

So, these two teams already met this season. While Baltimore failed to cover a -3 spread, the Ravens did win at home over New England, 31-30. It certainly can be misleading to put much stock in one Week 3 meeting when evaluating two teams deep in the postseason, but the first game gains relevance considering the two teams have now met five times in the last four seasons. Over that stretch, the Ravens are 2-3 straight-up, yet have never lost by more than six points. In four of those five games, the game was decided in the last minute. In the other, a Wild Card round game from 2009-10 in which Joe Flacco and the Ravens were 3.5 point underdogs, Baltimore won outright, 33-14 in New England. And, as we noted last week with Houston, each of the Patriots' six losses in the postseason since their last Super Bowl has come against a team it played in the regular season.

Not only do these teams matchup well in general, not nearly as much has changed since the first matchup as may be assumed. Baltimore played without Terrell Suggs in the first game. The Ravens then lost Ray Lewis and LarDarius Webb for significant time, while Haloti Ngata clearly played hurt and the offense began to struggle. Now, Lewis is back, Suggs and Ngata are playing their best football of the season right now and, an offensive coordinator shift from Cam Cameron to Jim Caldwell, has the Ravens moving the ball well again. Weeks 7-17 may be mostly forgettable for the Ravens, but this current team looks similar enough to what we saw in Week 3 to expect Baltimore to be able to keep this competitive.

Meanwhile, New England made a deft roster move by picking up cornerback Aqib Talib, but in a situation that more than cancels out Talib's added value, tight end Rob Gronkowski reinjured his forearm and will miss this game. On the year, New England averages 0.6 fewer yards-per-play without Gronkowski on the field (as compared to with him on the field). He may not have seemed to be as integral to the team this season as he was last year, but that is a very significant and important difference. Six yards-per-play, what New England averaged in 2012-13 with Gronkowski on the field, would rank fourth in the NFL this season. Without him out there, New England averaged 5.4 yards-per-play, which would rank just 16th overall (the Patriots counter that with tempo, so I am not saying that they are an "average" offense without Rob Gronkowski, but they are much closer to average without him than with him). The perception is that New England played very well down the stretch after losing to Baltimore, yet with the re-injury to a focal point of the offense and the fact that the Patriots are still only 6-6 ATS over the last 12 weeks, the Patriots are not that much better (or worse for that matter) than they were in Baltimore.

By the numbers, Baltimore is 13-5 SU and 9-8-1 ATS against the league's 17th toughest schedule for 2012-13. The Ravens out-gained their opponents by almost a half a yard-per-play (+0.49) and, while not necessarily elite in anything, they are above average in all of our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics. Teams with glaring weaknesses are more likely to be blown out than solid teams that may be inferior in the matchup yet are not as easily exploited.

On the season, New England is 13-4 SU and 10-7 ATS against the 26th ranked NFL schedule. The Patriots have been greater than touchdown favorites eight times this season and have covered in just three of those games (including in Week 17 against a Miami team that had nothing to play for). The Patriots averaged the highest number of plays and points-per-game this season. However, they only out-gained opponents by 0.11 yards-per-play on the year (including the games with Gronkowski). New England's defense has been an issue even with Talib on the field. The Patriots rank sixth worst in the league in yards-per-pass allowed and only generated a sack on 6% of all opponents' drop-backs (below average - tenth worst in the league). And, while Baltimore clearly struggled against elite return man Trindon Holliday last week, the Patriots ranked as the fourth worst kickoff return team and as an NFL average punt return team. New England has the better team and is playing at home, so it should win, but recent history and improved play by the Ravens suggest 9.5 (or more) points is too many (this line opened anywhere from 7.5 to 10 and will probably close at either 8.5 or 9 - obviously, the tone of this write-up would be very different at 7.5 as we would be picking New England, but the value is just too great in Baltimore now).

In 50,000 games played of Ravens @ Patriots, New England wins 68.3% of the time and by an average score of 32.1-24.4. As 9.5 point underdogs, Baltimore covers the spread 54.9% of the time, which would justify a $26 play from a normal $50 player. With almost 57 points scored on average, the OVER (51) is actually our strongest opinion of the weekend. The OVER is now 12-4-1 in Patriots games this season (10-8 for Baltimore). In the four UNDER games for New England, the Patriots played on Miami (twice), Jacksonville and Arizona - three teams that all finished in the bottom ten of our NFL offensive team rankings. At 57.9% to cover, we are confident enough in the OVER to recommend a $58 play from a normal $50 player.

Super Bowl Odds

The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player stats to play, one play at a time, the NFL Playoffs bracket 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to win the Super Bowl. The rest of the NFL Playoffs are played all the way through individually, with the team that wins each game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of winning the Super Bowl.

With a loss to the previous strongest team in the league, the Denver Broncos, the NFC's best, San Francisco 49ers, have jumped up to become the most likely Super Bowl champion by winning it all in 38.2% of 50,000 simulations. Going into last week, the 49ers were 17.5% likely to win the Super Bowl. While obviously looking very good in their own right on the field, San Francisco has benefited greatly from upsets elsewhere that has given the team a clearer path than expected. Getting to face Atlanta instead of Seattle (even on the road) helps the 49ers, as does the loss to the similarly well-rounded Denver Broncos, who, with their experience at quarterback and elite pass rush, would have been favored over the 49ers. Despite a slightly weaker conference championship winning percentage than New England , San Francisco edges the Patriots in the most likely Super Bowl - very important to note since New England would likely be favorites in the sports books in that game - to become our most likely current champion. With 2:1 current Super Bowl futures odds - which would require 33.3%+ confidence to play - San Francisco is a valuable Super Bowl futures wager.

After the 49ers, the New England Patriots are the second most likely Super Bowl champion. New England wins 37.7% of all simulated Super Bowls. As presently constructed and without any further injuries of note (to any team), New England would be a slight underdog to San Francisco in our projections, yet a full touchdown favorite over Atlanta if the Falcons advance. The Patriots and 49ers combine to win 75.9% of all Super Bowls. New England is currently a prohibitive 6:5 favorite to win the Super Bowl in the sports books. This would require 54.5% confidence to play - a steep price considering that there are three other teams remaining (two of which were also here at this level last year).

The Patriots are followed by the Atlanta Falcons who have a 12.3% chance to win the Super Bowl, yet would not be favored over either AFC team if they get there. That being said, given that NFC teams win 50.5% of the remaining Super Bowls, the NFC +3 for the Super Bowl as of right now looks appealing . Atlanta at 6:1 odds (requires 14.3% confidence) to win the Super Bowl, is not quite playable.

Baltimore, which has to go on the road and face a very strong team this weekend, is the least likely Super Bowl champion. The Ravens win the Super Bowl 11.9% of the time, which is still about one out of every eight simulations. Some books have Baltimore at 15:2 or 8:1 (or greater), which would each be valuable plays on Super Bowl futures odds for the Ravens. And for those still curious about an All-Harbaugh Super Bowl between the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers, that occurs 20.3% of the time. Unfortunately for John and the Ravens, San Francisco over Baltimore is only possible Super Bowl matchup that we project to be won by more than a touchdown. A Harbaugh-led team wins the Super Bowl 50.1% of the time.

Last year, at this time, an All-Harbaugh Super Bowl was 16.9% likely. Also of note from last season, no team at this time was greater than 33% or less than 20% likely to win the Super Bowl. Now, we have two teams with a better than 35% and two teams with a weaker than 15% chance to win the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Odds (based on rest of 2013 NFL Playoffs played 50,000 times)
Team Super Bowl Win
San Francisco 49ers 38.2%
New England Patriots 37.6%
Atlanta Falcons 12.3%
Baltimore Ravens 11.9%

Accuscore

Baltimore Ravens +8.5 at New England Patriots

I still see this line posted at +9.0 or even at +10.0 at one book. Obviously if you find the line higher than +8.5, I like the pick even more. AccuScore has the Ravens covering +8.5 nearly 58% of the time with the average simulation line set at -6.0. AccuScore has gone 10-6 ATS in New England games and 8-6 in Baltimore games this season providing positive ROI. Baltimore did beat New England back in Week 3, and lost by just 3 points to the Patriots in last year’s championship game. In 2010, Baltimore took New England to OT in Week 6 before losing by 3. The Ravens know how to play the Patriots, and are not afraid or intimidated to play them on the road. The spread is very large, and is falling as the week goes on.

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Lakers at RaptorsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Struggling Lakers have found something to ail them as they come to Toronto on Sunday afternoon. We will avoid the side play here but will take the OVER, which is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings and 5-0 in the last five games in Toronto. Kobe is still atop the league in scoring and the Lakers sit #3 overall in team scoring. You know that when Kobe plays the Raps, thoughts of his 81 pt game against them is at the back of his mind. Also Steve Nash makes his Laker debut in his home country of Canada, he will want to make an impression in this match-up. The Lakers D has been the focus of their problems allowing 101.4 per game, and we don't see that changing much, take the over in what looks to be a fast paced game.

NFL Betting Picks

San Francisco 49ers -4

The San Francisco 49ers took care of business at home against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers last Saturday to improve to 12-4-1 on the season, and 7-1 at home. They were 5-3 on the road this year, and head into Atlanta to take on the NFC's #1 seed in Atlanta. The Falcons barely got by Seattle at home last week with a field goal to win by 2 points. San Francisco is a lot like Seattle in that they have a great defense and a high powered offense led by a young QB in Colin Kaepernick who can also use his legs. Kaepernick threw for 263 yards, 2 TDs with 1 INT on Saturday, and added 181 yards on the ground and 2 rushing TDs. He had a QB Rating of 98.3 this season and had 415 yards rushing with 5 TDs even though he took over the starting QB job mid way through the season. The San Francisco 49ers weren't far behind Atlanta (who were 8th in the NFL on offense) at 11th with less than 2 ppg less than the Falcons. The 49ers defense was 3rd ranked in the league allowing just 294 yards against per game and 17.1 papg. The Falcons were 24th in the league overall, although they allowed just 18.7 papg. The 49ers offense should be able to get more done on the ground this week than the Seahawks did on Sunday vs the Falcons who ranked 29th in the league in yards against per carry. Take note that the 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs a team with a winning home record, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf, and 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games overall. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games and last week Matt Ryan barely squeaked out his first career playoff victory and he was lucky to do so. This 49ers teams is a little more experienced going to the Conference Championship game last year losing to the eventual Super Bowl champions in overtime, and I think they are the better team all around. I like San Francisco to advance to the Super Bowl and cover the spread in doing so.

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta FalconsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Atlanta FalconsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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TRUST ME ..... nobody thinks LESS of Mike Smith as a head coach than myself but this is a business and the object is to make money. Smith is without question one of the three worst game plan coaches in the NFL and is an even worse game coach. The thing about it is that he has taken a franchise that was in complete disarray from the Bobby Petrino fiasco compounded by the Michael Vick dog fighting debacle and turned them into a perennial playoff team in virtually no time at all. That said, with the deficiencies of Smith at the helm, you really have to give props to GM Thomas Dimitroff for excellent drafts and talent acquisition. This team just has to be good ..... and they are. This game opened at Atlanta -3 and went to 4-5 like the public had Monday's paper. Last impressions are indelibly etched in bettors mind and the last thing everyone remembers is Colin Kaepernick running wild vs the Packers. Lets be honest ..... the Packers couldn't stop me, Jimmy Boyd, and Jack Jones running the ball behind five fat guys. If you dial into your selective memory back less than a month, the Falcons dominated a Seattle team for 55 minutes that literally kicked the sh*t out of the 49ers 42-13 on December 23rd. Atlanta just faced Russel Wilson who is elusive and can run, just like Kaepernick, plus they get their best defensive lineman back (John Abraham) who didn't even play against the Hawks. Atlanta is a beat at home as we all know, 8-1 in the Georgia Dome this year (San Fran 2-2 in domes TY) with a meaningless loss in Week 17. Most importantly about the win over Seattle is the fact that Atlanta finally got the playoff monkey off their back. In the last six NFC title games where the No.1 and No.2 seeds have met, the top seed as won every time. Further, the dog is 6-4 in this round over the last five years. Even if Smith gums up the works, can't see this one ending in a rout for either team. All considered, we have a home team that has won better than 85% of it's home games over the past five years getting points against a rookie quarterback with less than eight career starts.

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Oklahoma City vs. DenverFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OKC is 32-8 SU and 24-14-2 ATS; it's coming off a 117-114 OT win at Dallas on the 18th. Kevin Durant exploded for a career-high 52 points, hitting all 21 of his free throws. The Thunder have now won four in a row on the road.
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They'll be playing against the "revenge factor" today though, as they've won six of the last eight in this series, including a 117-97 win over Denver last week.
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Note that OKC has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six vs. division opponents.

Denver is 24-18 SU and 23-19 ATS; it's coming off back to back losses, including a 112-108 setback to Washington on the 18th.
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There's no question that the Nuggets will be looking to atone for those back to back lacklustre efforts, and a better defensive performance will be a must vs. the high flying Thunder:

"Our defense never responded, our big men never responded and the personality of the game is very similar to (games against) Minnesota, Orlando, Cleveland, and Golden State (earlier this month)," Denver coach George Karl said of his teams lack of focus. "All those games had similar personalities of not having enough effort, not having enough serious basketball."
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"We're definitely disappointed," Denver's Ty Lawson said yesterday. "... We have a film session to figure out the things we're doing wrong. Hopefully we have a good showing against OKC on Sunday."

Note that Denver has seen the total go "under" the number in 10 of 18 home games and in four of seven off an upset loss as a favorite.
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I'm expecting these two divisional opponents to fight it out tonight, and believe this one will sneak below the posted number!

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Thunder at NuggetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Oklahoma City Thunder have been on an offensive tear, scoring 117 points in each of their last two games. Moreover, they have scored 100 points or more in 25 of the last 31 games. It isn't much of a stretch then that the Thunder rank 1st in the NBA in points (105.7 ppg). Kevin Durant leads the charge with a staggering 29.3 ppg average. Tonight they face a Denver squad that has allowed over 110 points in each of the last three games, including 112 to Washington at home on Friday night. Difficult to believe we only have to fade a 210 in this contest. Don't see these teams having any problem eclipsing that number. Take the OVER.

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ATLANTA +4½ over San FranciscoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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On Monday, November 19, the Bears visited San Francisco. The 49ers were a 6½-pt favourite until midday when it was announced that Niners’ QB Alex Smith was a scratch and that backup Colin Kaepernick would start. The line immediately began to plummet, closing at San Fran -3½. What a steal for those that bought Chicago at +6½, going against some guy whose name sounded more like a rye bread than an NFL quarterback. Or so they thought. The 49ers went on to clobber Da Bears by a 32-7 count and more importantly, the Kaepernick era had an unexpected start. After watching the young pivot shred the Packers last week with both his feet and arm, the entire football world is going gaga over the 2nd year player out of Nevada. We get that. It appears that Kaepernick has the tools and savvy to stick around for a while. But is his time right now? This is a quarterback driven league. Yes, the Niners have a fine team surrounding young pivot but it’s not like they are facing some slouch team on the other side. The sudden love fest for Colin K. and the 49ers has forced oddsmakers to hang an improper price for this one. That’s where we like to step in with our philosophy of selling high and buying low.
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The Falcons have not been taken very seriously all season long. Granted, they may not have the pedigree of some other playoff participants but this is a solid bunch that enters this one with 14-3 record and including last week’s nail biting win over the Seahawks, are an impressive 8-1 at home. The sole loss was a meaningless affair to the Bucs on the final day of the regular season. Incidentally, those were the same Seahawks that San Francisco visited just two games ago and were promptly ambushed to the tune of 42-13. Atlanta shut down QB Russell Wilson for most of the afternoon last week before going into a prevent that almost cost them the game. Having seen similar styles from Wilson, Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton twice, a group that the Falcons went 3-1 against, you can bet that the Dirty Birds will be ready for this fleet footed foreigner. With all the focus on Kaepernick, let’s not forget about Atlanta QB Matt Ryan.
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Give Matty Ice some time and he’ll beat you. He does it time and time again in this domed stadium. He has the weapons to strike back if the Niners get theirs. With the passing skills of Ryan and his finest receiving corps ever, a team that has won 34 of its past 39 games here should not be a 4½-pt underdog to this visitor. We’ll avoid the hype and go with the more prudent value.
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NEW ENGLAND -8 over BaltimoreFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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By some freakish circumstances, the Ravens made it to this rematch of last year’s AFC Conference Final. Most will remember that affair when New England emerged with a fortunate 23-20 win after Lee Evans dropped a game winning touchdown pass and Billy Cundiff botched a game-tying field goal try. Baltimore backers got the money in that game as the ever popular Patriots were a 7-pt choice. These two also met during the regular season in Baltimore with the Ravens earning some redemption from the heartbreaking playoff loss with a 31-30 win, again covering as a 2½-pt home underdog. So, based on those two tightly fought battles and Baltimore covering both at shorter prices, taking 9 points here looks like a cinch, right? Adding to the allure of the suddenly uprising Ravens was last week’s upset win over the similarly priced Broncos. Even cinchier. Unfortunately, it doesn’t quite work that way.
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The Ravens had their genie come of the bottle last week. Now, a team that had lost four of five before that bizarre win will take its show to Foxboro to face the odds on favorite to win it all. Surprisingly, the Patriots have not won a Super Bowl in eight years. While they remain elite, the grand prize has eluded them a couple of times since their last title in 2005. This might be their best and most balanced team of all. Aside from the ageless Tom Brady and his outstanding passing attack, the Pats own a solid ground game as RB Stevan Ridley rushed for nearly 1300 yards, exceeding the more publicized Ray Rice of the Ravens. Stopping Brady and Co. is a huge task and this is not your big brother’s Ravens, known for their stellar defense.
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When facing quality offenses, Baltimore gave up 30 to these Pats, 31 to Washington, 69 in two games to the Broncos and 43 to the Texans, the latter a team the Patriots defeated by a combined 41 points in two games. The Ravens are also hurting on that side of the ball and figure to be fatigued, traveling for the third time in four weeks while exerting a maximum effort in last Sunday’s overtime win. New England’s defense is actually the stronger unit. Traveling is not exactly Baltimore’s forte either with just eight wins in past 18 away from home. QB Joe Flacco’s home numbers dwarf his away stats, going from 15 TD, 5 INT’s and an 8.3 yards per pass avg. when hosting, compared to 7 TD’s, 5 INT’s and a 5.9 yards per pass avg. as a visitor. There is just too much firepower provided from Tom and the Hoodie to be denied another trip to football’s biggest stage and it comes at the hands of this weaker foe.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Toronto RaptorsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Toronto RaptorsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Lakers are in a tough spot here. Rested road favorites with a total that is 190 or higher, that are coming in off a game where they were a home favorite of 4 or less and shot 45% or less, with 25 or less assists are 2-10 to the spread if today's opponent scored 100 or more as a road dog in their last game. The Lakers are favored here, yet they are 5-12 on the road and 1-8 straight up and to the spread off a favored loss and 0-3 off 3+ home games. Toronto has covered 6 of 7 off a division game and are a solid 4-0 ats as a home dog from 3.5 to 6. Based on the systems and angles we will Take Toronto as the free play.

NellyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana - over NorthwesternFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Hoosiers lost at home Tuesday against Wisconsin but it was a perfect storm as Indiana had just won a huge game with highly ranked Minnesota and the Badgers played as well as they could have on both sides of the ball. Bo Ryan continues to own Tom Crean in head-to-head match-ups but Indiana should be poised to bounce back. Indiana has only lost twice this season and after losing in overtime to Butler the Hoosiers won by 39 the next game out. Northwestern is coming off a huge win over Illinois on the road on Thursday, a game where the Wildcats shot the lights out and caused all sorts of problems for a struggling Illini squad. That win may not look that impressive in a few weeks as Illinois appears to be on a free fall. Northwestern has lost badly in both Big Ten home games, losing by 28 against Michigan and by 20 against Iowa and there is no comparison statistically between these teams on either side of the ball. Indiana forces foes into nearly five percent worse shooting on defense while Indiana shoots over eight percent better on offense compared with Northwestern. Indiana should also own a substantial edge in rebounding and at the free throw line. Winning on the road in the Big Ten will never be easy and Northwestern has had a lot of recent ATS success in this series but this should be a focused Indiana team that may be one of the most talented teams in the nation.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma City vs. DenverFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DenverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Quick rematch from last Wednesday’s game at Chesapeake Energy Center when Ok City romped by 20. Denver never had a look at that game, already down 16 by the time the 1st Q ended, and had no answer for Russell Westbrook, who dominated action with 32 points. But that was a similar to last season, when Westbrook also abused the Nuggets’ guards, scoring 31 ppg in three meetings vs. Denver. Now, however, Thunder has to face Denver at Pepsi Center, which Nuggets have made into a nice fortress this season by winning SU in 15 of first 17 as host prior to hosting John Wall and the Wizards last Friday night. Nuggets will need to turn up defensive intensity after recent 3-game stretch in which foes hit 50.4% from floor and 43% (30 of 70) beyond arc. But homecourt edge has been powerful this season for Denver.