CRAIG DAVIS
Today's free play is on NC State to whip Clemson in ACC play. These two teams will tip off for the 146th time, but today's meeting features a NC State team that isn't very happy, coming in off a one-point loss at Maryland... their first in the ACC.
Ironically, the Tigers have quietly played very well vs. the Wolfpack, winning the last four meetings and seven of the last nine, regardless of which team had a better record. Clemson struggled to start the ACC season, dropping both of their first two games, but have played better recently, beating Wake Forest and Virginia, holding both teams to 44 points.
I will admit, if the Tigers play that type of defense today, it's going to be tough for NC State to cover the 10 points I'm asking them to reach.
NC State, meanwhile, comes into this game a little more focused as they were brought back down to earth from last Saturday's big home win over then #1 Duke. Wednesday's one-point loss to Maryland was a wake up call for the Pack, and I'm expecting them to find it within themselves to get the "mojo" back.
4* NC STATE
MATT RIVERS
For Sunday, go with NC State to put a hurting on Clemson.
State saw their 10 game winning streak come to a halt in College Park earlier this week, as the Wolfpack dropped a tough one-point decision to Maryland.
Now back at home, and in revenge for an overtime loss at Clemson the last time these conference rivals squared off, expect the Pack to put the hammer down on a Clemson team that is playing for just the second time on the road this new year.
The Tigers last effort away from home was a 28-point loss at Duke, and while NC State may not be thought of in Duke's class, let me remind you the Wolfpack did beat Duke in Raleigh the last time they played at home.
NC State has gone 6-2 against the spread in their lined home games this season, and they did win and cover the last home meeting in this series against the Tigers.
This one gets ugly before it is all said and done.
Back the Pack!
2* NC STATE
JEFF BENTON
Sunday's freebie is Dallas over Orlando.
The Mavericks saw their four game winning streak snapped on Friday night, but Dallas did acquit themselves well, playing Oklahoma City right down to the wire in an overtime loss on their home floor.
Orlando was stopped at home by lowly Charlotte on Friday, and the Magic is now on a 2-12 straight up slide their last 14 games, with a 7-7 spread mark.
Dallas has won seven of the last ten series meetings straight up, and the visitor in this East/West series has not only won the last eight meetings, but has covered in ALL eight of those meetings.
Go with the Mavericks here, as the visitor pushes the win and cover streak to nine in a row.
4* DALLAS
SCOTT DELANEY
My free pick for Sunday night is out of the NBA, as I like the Oklahoma City Thunder laying a cheap number against the Denver Nuggets. The other night the Nuggets didn't bother playing the Washington Wizards the way they should have, likely cause they were looking ahead to this game.
Now they have to deal with the most lethal scorer in the world, and the best team in the NBA, and I don't think the Nuggets have the personnel to keep up with the Thunder.
Just this past week the Thunder dominated Denver at Chesaapeake Energy Arena, 117-97, going wire-to-wire in the 20-point romp. They built a lead as big as 28 points, and never let the Nuggets get back within 15 after intermission. It was quite impressive. Through the Thunder's first half of the season, I have to say, it might have been the most complete game of the campaign I've seen them play.
Now they meet again.
Do I expect the same near-flawless game? No. But the matchups are the same and there's no reason the Thunder can't steal this win. Especially since they're on another nice little run, having won four straight while ordering room service, a good sign since they're opening a season-high six-game junket tonight.
The team carrying luggage in this series has covered six of the last seven meetings, so I'm just fine with the cheap number the Thunder are laying on the moneyline. Why the moneyline? Why not... I'm willing to lay up to -150 in baseball at times, so why not -115 with the best team in basketball?
Take the Thunder to win this game.
3* OKLAHOMA CITY MONEYLINE
Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iona vs. RiderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iona is the highest scoring team in the MAAC, and their totals reflect that fact. Lamont Jones and Sean Armand rank #1 and #2 in the conference in scoring. They’ve gone Over the total in each of their last four games, leading to a total in the mid-150’s again here.
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Rider is a stellar defensive team, holding foes to 35% shooting at home this season. They haven’t seen a total higher than 128.5 in their last five games, and they haven’t seen any of their last ten ballgames produce even 140 total points.
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And Broncs head coach Kevin Baggett made it very clear what Rider’s gameplan is going to be today. “I don’t want to get into a track match. That’s what a lot of teams have tried to do and they didn’t come up successful. We’re going to need to slow it down and take our shots when we have them. … This is not going to be a track meet.” Take the Under
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Drake at Northern IowaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: DrakeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Drake will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Drake is projected to have 34 to 39 boards and are 12-2 ATS when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons. Northern Iowa is coming off a 79-68 loss at Creighton and pushed as 11 point dogs. Northern Iowa is just 1-8 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Drake has struggled on the defensive end ranking 306th in the nation allowing 73.9 PPG, but are facing a NI team that has been largely inconsistent on offense and rank 179th scoring 66.2 PPG. Drakes offense has been solid and getting better ranking 68th scoring 72.1 PPG and I strongly believe they will execute a very high level against NI. Moreover, Drake is a vastly better ball handling team than NI and they will have a significant edge in the turnover department. All of these factors is what leads me to be confident Drake will make this a hotly contested game. Take Drake.
Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Illinois State at Southern IllinoisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Illinois State (9-9) has lost six games in a row after their 74-62 loss at Wichita State as an 8-point underdog on Wednesday. The Redbirds have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total following a loss. Illinois State has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread defeat. The Total was set at 140 for that contest which means the Redbirds have now played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against Missouri Valley Conference opponents. Illinois State is 2-4 on the road this year -- and Southern Illinois (8-9) has played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Take the Under in this one.
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NC State -9.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Off a 1-point loss at Maryland last time out, the NC State Wolfpack will come back with a blowout home victory over the Clemson Tigers today. NC State is a perfect 10-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 16.5 points/game. We last saw the Wolfpack at home taking down then-No. 1 Duke 84-76. Clemson has lost its last two road games in ugly fashion. It was blown out at Coastal Carolina 46-69 before falling at Duke 40-68. You can chalk up a 3rd straight lopsided road defeat for the Tigers today.
Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Drake +10FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It was our 3rd consecutive huge winning weekend day when College selections on this site went 13-5 (72%). That makes the last 5 weekend days a combined 43-16 ATS (73%). Our NFL selections have been just as hot going 27-11 ATS (71%). Don't miss your 3* NFL Playoff Game of the Year and FREE 3* NFL Playoff Total of the Year available right now. Remember: Monday action is early with selections available to you by noon ET tomorrow on the ESPN Triple Header. With 4 RS from a Northern Iowa team that won 70 games the previous three years, the Panthers were expected to challenge for the upper echelon of the Valley. These best laid plans have gone awry. This afternoon, the hard trying Panther enters at 2-4 SU in league play following an 11 point loss, but cover, at Creighton. For their purposes today, however, they are just 12-21 ATS under HC Jacobson, -10+. Drake has played their best ball in the last two games. This is a team that succeeds with their offense. Last Saturday, they upset Ill St, 82-77, as 11 point dog. Then followed it up with a Wednesday night home court win over Evansville, when they scorched the nets in the second half. If they get hot from the arc where they average 8/21 threes, they can make up for defensive deficiencies which see them allowing 74/46/37 with a -4 rebound margin.
NHL PredictionsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buffalo Sabres -120FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Flyers got off to a slow start in a 3-1 loss to Pittsburgh yesterday afternoon. They did manage to have better 2nd and 3rd periods but could only get one goal past Marc-Andre Fleury. Ilya Bryzgalov looked shaky to start the game, but seemed to settle in. This game is being played at 12:30 in Buffalo making it a very tough spot for Philadelphia who comes in on no days rest. Note dating back to last year they are 2-5 in their last 7 games played on 0 days rest. The Sabres missed the postseason last year by 3 points, but they were a solid home team going 21-12-8 on home ice. Philadelphia has had Buffalo's number lately, but given that Philadelphia didn't do much offensively yesterday and are on short rest with travel I like Buffalo to come out and win their home opener.
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Edmonton Oilers +135FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Vancouver Canucks opened their season up with a surprising 7-3 loss at home vs the Anaheim Ducks. Canucks goalie Cory Schneider didn't fare well in his first start as the Canucks starting goalie allowing 5 goals against on just 14 shots before giving way to now back up Roberto Luongo. The Canucks are going to miss two key forwards in Booth and Kesler to start the year, and I think it may be a good time of the year to be betting against them as they are often over valued. The Oilers on the other hand might be under valued to start the season if their young team can play a bit of defense. Their offense will be there with a number of young guns who can put up points, but they will need to buckle down defensively in front of Devan Dubnyk to win games. In recent years Edmonton hasn't had much success in Vancouver but I think this team is the best they've had in a number of years. With their top players playing together in the AHL this season I think they will be ready to go tonight in Vancouver and take advantage of a Canucks team that dropped their opener last night 7-3. Take the Oilers at +135.
David Banks
Ravens / Patriots Over 51.5
The AFC Championship Game this season is a rematch of last year's championship game at the same venue, as the New England Patriots are once again hosting the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA at 6:30 ET on CBS. The Patriots prevailed in this game 23-20 last season, and then these teams met again in the regular season this year with the Ravens prevailing in another close but higher scoring game 31-30 back in September with replacement officials doing the game.
The Ravens have always defended Tom Brady well, so we may not see the same offense that dismantled the Houston Texans 41-28 in the divisional round this week. Yes, the Pats put up 30 points in the regular season meeting, but remember that Baltimore's best pass rusher Terrell Suggs was out for that game. Suggs and Ray Lewis are now both playing at the same time, something that did not happen even once during the regular season, and when you add in the blossoming of Paul Kruger as an outstanding rush linebacker as the year went on, you may see the Baltimore defense here that made Brady look very ordinary in this game last year when he completed just 22-of-36 passes for 239 yards with two interceptions and no touchdown passes. Also, expect Baltimore to employ a ball control offensive game plan here in an attempt to keep Brady and the New England offense on the sideline as long as possible.
That Ravens' game plan will probably start with heavy doses of Ray Rice, who rushed for 101 yards on 20 carries in the regular season meeting. Now the Patriots' run defense did improve as the year went on, as New England in fact finished seventh in the NFL in rushing defense during the season allowing only 101.4 yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry. However, the Denver Broncos finished fourth in rushing defense while allowing 3.6 yards per carry, and that did not stop Rice from rushing for 131 yards against them last week. That rushing success also freed up Joe Flacco to have one of his best games ever given what was at stake, as he threw for 331 yards and three touchdowns in the 38-35 overtime upset win. Baltimore may rely more on Rice this week as it tries to play keep-away, but Flacco should again have success when he is call upon as long as the Patriots have to worry about Rice. Also, the Baltimore offensive line did an outstanding job against a Denver defensive line that tied for the NFL lead with 52 sacks, as Flacco was only sacked once all game, and that is not to mention all the running lanes the line opened up for Rice.
Believe it or now, the Patriots are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff games overall including 2-7 ATS here at home. The Ravens meanwhile are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 playoff road games. Also, the underdogs are now 3-0-1 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings with two of those underdog covers being by Baltimore in the playoffs.
Dr. Bob
Opinion
DENVER (+1) over Oklahoma City
Denver is coming off a two losses, including a 97-117 loss in Oklahoma City on Wednesday night. The Nuggets are usually at their best after a loss, especially when the opponent is coming off a win. Denver is now 47-17-1 ATS when rested after a loss against an opponent off a win (4-2 ATS this season), including 20-4 ATS as an underdog. My ratings favor Oklahoma City by 2 points, so the line could be a bit higher, but I’ll lean with Denver based on the strong team trend.
Steve Janus
Illinois State -2.5
Illinois State has too much talent to be 0-6 inside the Missouri Valley. The Redbirds are simply sick and tired of losing and are going to be extremely motivated to get their first conference win against their in-state rivals. The last time these two teams played, Illinois State came away with a 20-pt win. Southern Illinois hasn't exactly been playing well either, as they are just 1-5 inside the Missouri Valley. The Redbirds are a solid 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games at Southern Illinois and are favored on the road for a reason tonight.
John Ryan
San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: San Francisco 49ers -3½
The Georgia Dome is going to be raucous to say the least and the fans do have an opportunity to impact the flow of the 49ers offense. Of course, the 49ers have worked on a silent count knowing it is going to be a far different atmosphere than the friendly confines of Candlestick. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 6 or more points. 49er QB Kaepernick is coming off a record breaking playoff game, but in this game the star just might be Frank Gore. The biggest matchup advantage for the 49ers is to pound the ball. They rank second in the NFL averaging 5.2 rushing yards per attempt and will be going against a Dirty Bird defense ranking 28th allowing 4.8 yards per carry. This run threat becomes magnified in play action calls with Kaepernick fully capable of pulling the ball down and taking off. The plays that were so successful last week, were created by the 49er receivers streaking down field running either fly or post patterns and getting defenders to turn their backs to the pocket. When Kaepernick saw the backs the Packers defenders, he knew he had big chances to run the ball. With Crabtree and Vernon Davis able to stretch the field with vertical routes, it will be a massive task for the Falcons to contain the 49er running attack by adding a safety to the box. Even when a running play is called, Kaepernick can check to several other plays when he sees eight men in the box. Falcons can blitz well, but have failed miserably against mobile quarterbacks this season. Moreover, the middle of the field was wide open in last week’s dramatic win allowing Seattle to complete very high percentage pass plays in space. Seattle’s Zack Miller was a nightmare for the Falcons defense and you can be assured Vernon Davis and Crabtree will be running routes into that area of the field. So, truly, I just don’t see how Atlanta can stop the very physical 49er ground game. 49ers are a solid 10-1 ATS when facing struggling passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons; 15-4 ATS facing generous defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards per play over the last 3 seasons.
Here are my prop bets for this game: Given the running attack that i see dominating this game, I like playing 49ers -1 ½ to be the team with the most first downs laying -105. Frank Gore at 11/4 to have the most rushing yards of any back in both Championship games. OVER 80 ½ Frank Gore rushing yards. Best of Luck to everyone. Enjoy the games.