Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 22

SPORTS WAGERS

Baltimore +7 over NEW ENGLAND

It’s difficult to penalize the Patriots for dismantling the Broncos the way they did in New England’s 45-10 playoff win last week. But c’mon now. That hardly seemed like a playoff game as Denver and Tim Tebow were nothing more than a charade. To the Patriots’ credit, they did what needed to be done and they took no prisoners. It’s not unusual for Tom Brady and the Pats’ offense to light up scoreboards against any oncomers as New England has tallied 30 or more in nine of its past 10 games.

Many critics believe that the Pats need to score often in order to mask New England’s 32nd ranked defense. While defensive stats and rankings can be skewed for teams with high-powered offenses (the defense is on the field a lot because the offenses are quick strikers), the detractors may be right. The Dolphins, Chargers, Bills and Eagles, all non-playoff teams, threw for nearly 1600 yards combined against this Patriots secondary with each exceeding 370 yards. Even the Raiders and Colts each passed for almost 350 yards in their games against the AFC’s top-seed.

Those numbers bode well for the Ravens and particularly quarterback Joe Flacco. The fourth-year quarterback takes a lot of flak (pun fully intended) but is steady enough to game manage while a solid running attack featuring Ray Rice and the persistent Ricky Williams keeps things flowing. Baltimore’s’ trademark defense does the rest, giving its offense opportunity to win. We have seen Flacco step up when he’s had to, including Week 9 this year when Flacco marched his team 92 yards in the final two minutes before connecting with Torrey Smith.on a 26-yard touchdown pass to earn a 23-20 win over the rival Steelers.

A look back on the 2011 season finds that the Patriots faced only three teams that would ultimately reach the playoffs. One of those teams was the improbable Broncos. The other two qualifiers were the Steelers and the Giants. New England was defeated by the latter pair, scoring just 17 against Pittsburgh and 20 at home to the Giants. That was the same Pittsburgh team that the Ravens defeated twice this season. In fact, Baltimore ran the table with a 6-0 mark in its division that had three of its four teams making this year’s post-season. The Patriots were the only team from the weak AFC East that qualified for these playoffs. The Ravens have played seven games against playoff teams so far. They’re a perfect 7-0 with wins over the 49ers and the Texans, Steelers and Bengals twice each.

This will mark only the second time this season that Baltimore will be an underdog. The only other time they were spotted points, the Ravens won straight up. We have to go back to the 2007 season to find the last time we were getting a full touchdown head start with the Ravens. With a 3rd-ranked defense that gave up nearly 2,000 less yards than its host on the year, in a setting that will not be intimidating to them, and with a fine pedigree of its own, there is more than enough room to keep this one within range. Play: Baltimore +7 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

N.Y. GIANTS +119 over San Francisco

Good for the Niners. They rewarded their faithful fans with a win in their first playoff appearance in nine years after upsetting the high-flying Saints. It’s been an outstanding season for this surprising 49ers club and the future certainly seems bright. However, we’re not sure if they’re ready for this assignment and the responsibility attached to it.

The Giants are hot. Smokin’ hot. So hot in fact, that it makes you wonder how they could have been a .500 club just a month ago. From where we sit, they are the most complete team of the dozen that qualified for this post-season. New York’s defense has been lights out. In their last four games, all of which were sudden-death, the G-men defeated the Jets, Cowboys, Falcons and mighty Packers by a combined 121-50. Of course, the latter two were playoff games where the Giants basically shut out the Falcons while making Green Bay appear like the Browns or Jaguars. It is no coincidence that when the Giants’ front four became healthy, the team got noticeably better. They are a nasty quartet that can wreak havoc on almost any opposition and quarterback. If Aaron Rodgers and the Packers didn’t faze them, we’re guessing that Alex Smith won’t either.

One drive does not a quarterback make. Yes, Alex Smith led his team on an impressive game-winning drive last week but let’s not get carried away. He’s Alex Smith. He’s been in this league since 2005. He’s had starting jobs, been a backup and then found his way back to the starter’s role simply by attrition. Granted, he’s been decent this year. Maybe serviceable is a better word. While Smith only threw five interceptions on the season, he did not have a 300-yard passing day. The Niners ranked 29th in yards passing per game, averaging 183 per and finishing only ahead of the aerial inept Rams, Broncos and Jaguars. San Fran’s red zone play left much to be desired also. In 54 trips to the red zone, Smith and the Niners managed just 22 touchdowns, which had them 30th in the league.

Conversely, Eli Manning has never looked better. His offensive line gives him plenty of time to pass and he’s taken full advantage. No more Plaxico Burress, Steve Smith or Kevin Boss. No problem. Meet Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz. New York receivers caught an impressive 4,933 yards of Manning’s passes, which is complimented by the solid running tandem of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Much is made of the 49ers stellar defense. While it is certainly a capable unit, we can’t ignore San Fran’s soft schedule, its wussy division or the yardage relinquished against decent passing teams.

Last week, the Saints had five turnovers. In most cases, that would that would lead to a blowout win but the Niners needed a touchdown with nine seconds remaining to secure that victory. Against a team that relishes this role with seven straight road playoff covers, a team with stronger offensive weapons and most importantly, is clicking on all cylinders, it is doubtful that the same good fortune awaits this host. Play: N.Y. Giants +119 (Risking 2 units).

Wunderdog

Ravens vs. Patriots
Play: Over 50

Breaking News: The New England Patriots can score. The Pats have scored 30 or more points in 20 of their last 25 games. But 30 isn't the magic number. The magic number is more like 37 as in those 20 games New England has averaged a ridiculous 37.2 points per game. But at least they can play defense... um... not. The Patriots defense has been their Achilles heel all season, giving up over 21 points per game and ranked second to last in the league in yards allowed. It's no surprise then that the Pats have played each of their last seven games to the OVER. The lowest total points scored in any of those last seven games were 51, so all of them have topped the total posted here against Baltimore. The reason to play the UNDER here of course would be Baltimore's defense. They have held opponents to 289 yards and 16.6 points per game. Without this, we would see a much higher total. So can Baltimore stop this juggernaut Patriots offense? I don't see it happening. The Ravens great defensive numbers are bolstered by an incredibly weak schedule. They have in fact played the softest offensive schedule in the NFL this season. They have faced the dead-last offense of the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 32, the No. 31 ranked offense in St. Louis, the No. 30 ranked offense in Indianapolis, the No. 29 ranked offense of the Cleveland Browns twice, the No. 28th ranked offense in Seattle, No. 26 San Francisco and finally the No. 25 New York Jets. That is eight games vs. the eight worst offenses in the league. On top of that they played two games vs. No. 20 Cincinnati, one vs. No. 19 Arizona and one with No. 17 ranked Tennessee. That is 11 games vs. bad or horrible offenses. The best they saw this season was San Diego who punched them for 415 yards and 34 points. New England played a very soft schedule too, as the only team they faced all season that won 10 games was Pittsburgh. Given that New England had trouble stopping these bad teams, I see Baltimore getting their points here as well. The Ravens defense isn't what it once was and on the road, it's really not that stout. In their last 27 road games, the Ravens have gone UNDER the total just eight times! Meanwhile, over the past two seasons, New England is 23-7 to the OVER including 14-4 OVER as a home favorite and 16-4 OVER when instilled as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Play this one OVER the total.

Matt Fargo

Virginia Tech @ Virginia
PICK: Virginia Tech +8

Virginia Tech is off to a 0-4 start in the ACC which is certainly not what many people were thinking. The Hokies have not had good fortunes on their hands though as two road losses came by a combined five points while their two home losses were against a strong Florida St. team and North Carolina, which was coming off a beating against the aforementioned Seminoles. While a winless record is hard to defend, this is one that is very defendable as Virginia Tech is a solid team still.

Virginia is coming off one of its best wins of the season and even though it was against Georgia Tech, it was a 32-point domination. That sets us up here as the Cavaliers are now becoming a pretty overvalued team. They are 2-1 in the conference with the lone loss coming against Duke on the road by just three points but prior to that, the Cavaliers won by only a pint against the Hurricanes at home. They were favored by fewer points in that game and it is hard to argue that Miami is better than Virginia Tech.

The Hokies will be challenged here on the offensive end as Virginia possesses a very strong defense but the same can be said the other way around. Virginia Tech held its first three ACC opponents to 58, 63 and 61 points and while it was unable to pull off any wins, the game were close as they lost those by an average of only three ppg. Winning is obviously the key now but in a game that looks to be dominated by the defenses, the Hokies have every shot of staying within this big number.

This is also a double revenge game for the Hokies which lost both meetings last season and while playing road revenge is not usually a wise move, it only adds to the winless record that Virginia Tech possesses. The win over Georgia Tech spells letdown for Virginia as it was the program's largest margin of victory in conference play since a 104-72 rout of NC State on January 29th, 1991. The underdog has covered six straight in this series and we will see that continue again on Sunday.

Marc Lawrence

North Carolina St @ Miami
PICK: Miami

Since the return of C Reggie Johnson, Miami has been applying the heat. The Canes have won five of seven since the big man is back on campus, including a conference home-opening win earlier this week against Clemson. Jim Larranaga’s boys will look to build on their 8-1 SU record at home this season and our database likes their chances. The Hurricanes are a damaging 7-0 ATS in ACC play before facing Georgia Tech while Larranaga, himself, is 77-34-1 ATS all-time at home when not favored by more than 12 points – including 34-12 ATS when his team is seeking revenge. Miami also gets the benefit of playing an NC State squad that is coming off a revenger with Boston College (2-5 SU and ATS in the regular season after flying with the Eagles) and eyeing a revenge match at archrival UNC (0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS before Heels) later this week. Lay the points as the Hurricanes show their Johnson (Reggie) is bigger than State’s Johnson (Alex) in this Sunday nooner. We recommend a 1-unit play on Miami Florida.

Joe D'Amico

New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers
Pick: New York Giants

Hey sports fans, as you know, I rode the 49ers train for at least 5 or 6 winners this season. However, this is the post-season. The lack of Playoff experience as a unit will hurt San Fran. Even if you look at their opposition, they haven't faced the top shelf teams ( Washington, Arizona twice, St. Louis twice, and Seattle) in 6 of their L10 games which shows me that the 49ers are all heart and well-coached. When you get to the post-season, it is all about the experience. As a unit, doesn't have the brotherhood that they will face this Sunday. Alex Smith is young and has his issues in the red zone as the "O" has just 22 TDs in 54 red zone opportunities. They are the 3rd worst in the NFC in red zone TDs. Now with all 4 of the Giants DL healthy, the quartet of Umenyiora, Pierre-Paul, Tuck, and Kiwanuka will frustrate the San Fran QB and force Smith to make mistakes. Alex Smith will be under more strain than he experienced against New Orleans LW. San Francisco only played 5 winning teams this year, don't forget that SF failed to win against lesser teams like Seattle and ST. Louis. Only 3 times in their L10 outings has the 49ers topped 21 points. Their "D" did a good job against the Saints, but still yielded over 500 yards of offense and committed 5 TOs. The 9ers "O" must now face a Giants "D" that is healthy and made both Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers look bad. NY had to go through one of the NFL's toughest schedules this season. But, QB, Eli Manning is just about the best post-season QB out there. Just as a playoff visitor, Manning is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a 'dog. Manning's receivers of Cruz, Nicks, and Manningham are fatal. During the on-start of the season, NY suffered from injuries. They are now healthy, hence the success of the tandem ground game of Jacobs and Bradshaw. Remember that the Giants still consist of 15 players that were on the Championship team. Over the last month, the Giants beat the Jets, Cowboys, Falcons, and Packers by a combined, 121-50. Their ground game has come to life which allows Manning to create his magic. Overall over the L2 weeks, NY's running game has averaged 133 YPG. Manning shines in January, as Eli has 9 TDs and just 1 INT over his L3 games. The lack of elite competition will be San Fran's demise here. The Giants are 5-1 ATS their L6 games played vs. the 49ers, 7-0 ATS their L7 road Playoff games, and 6-0 ATS their L6 games played vs. teams with a winning record. Take New York.

Jim Feist

Utah State vs Idaho
Pick: Utah State

Utah State is a tough all around team and playing well, with the Aggies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. They take on an Idaho team that is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Vandals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. And the Aggies are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play Utah State

Sean “Paddy” Murphy

Boston Bruins @ Philadelphia Flyers
PICK: Boston Bruins

The Bruins have simply owned the Flyers over the last year, taking seven of eight meetings, including a 6-0 beatdown on this ice back on December 17th.

They appear to be catching the Flyers at the right time on Sunday, as Philadelphia lost two of its key offensive cogs, Daniel Briere and Jaromir Jagr to injuries in yesterday's 4-1 win over the Devils.

Philadelphia needs all the offensive firepower it can get right now, as its defensive play has been hit or miss. Note that the Flyers have given up at least four goals in three of their last seven games, and the only opponents they've held under that number over that stretch were Carolina, New York (Islanders), Minnesota, and New Jersey - all weak offensive teams.

The Bruins certainly don't fall into that category, as they're averaging 3.5 goals per game this season, and that number doesn't drop off one bit on the road.

Following a tough 3-2 overtime loss against the Rangers yesterday, Boston should certainly be up for this contest. It hasn't suffered consecutive losses since early December.

Philadelphia's home ice advantage has been minimal at best this season, as its posted an 11-9 SU record. By contrast, the Bruins are a stellar 14-6 SU on the road.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Virginia Tech +8

Virginia Tech has lost 4 in a row, but 3 of those defeats came by 4 points or less and the other came to North Carolina, who was extremely motivated following a 90-57 loss to Florida State. Virginia is out of the gate strong and is coming off a lopsided 70-38 win over Georgia Tech. Prior to that win, however, the Cavaliers' previous 3 victories had come by 7 points or less. This has been a very competitive series recently with each team winning 2 of the last 4 meetings, and each of those meetings being decided by 7 points or less. In fact, 7 of the last 8 matchups have been decided by 7 or less. With as close as this series has been, the underdog has been the play. Consider that the team catching points has covered the spread in each of the last 6 meetings. We'll take the points here.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit Los Angeles Lakers -5.5

The Lakers have struggled on the road early, but they've been unstoppable at home, where they are 9-1 with an average winning margin of 9.2 points. They have won 16 of their last 18 at home in this series with those wins coming by an average score of 105 to 95. Also, the Pacers are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Lakers.

Dave Price

1 Unit Northwestern +5

Prior to getting thumped at Wisconsin, Northwestern had gone 2-2 over its previous 4 games with those 2 losses coming by a combined 3 points to quality Illinois and Michigan squads. I expect the Wildcats to get back on track here against a Minnesota team that has lost its last 2 at home and its last 2 in the series. The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Golden Gophers are 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a home favorite and 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take Northwestern.

SPORTS WAGERS

PITTSBURGH -½ +105 over Washington

Once again we'll fade the Capitals until the books and public realize that this is a non-playoff team that is getting far too much credit because of the league's most misleading record. The Caps have won four of their past six. They outplayed and outchanced their opponent zero times over that span. Over its last 11 games, Washington has 230 shots on net, which is less than 21 shots on net per game, or seven shots on net per period. They've been shutout twice in its last three games by the Islanders and Hurricanes. In that recent 3-0 win over the Canadiens, they were outshot 31-16. 46 games into the season and it's not like the Caps are being outplayed or outworked once in a while. It happens every single game lately and it happens by a wide margin. They recently have a 1-0 win over the Penguins in a game in which Tomas Vokoun stood on his head. Since then the Penguins have reeled off five wins in a row and outscored the oppoosition 21-10. The Pens are an elite group that is vastly superior than this grossly overvalued Capitals club. The game is an early afternoon featured NBC game and if Anaheim is -½ +104 over Colorado today, than the Penguins should be -½ -180 over this weak and usually uninterested guest. Do not miss this wager. Play: Pittsburgh -½ +105 (Risking 3 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

DEPAUL +100 over South Florida

The DePaul Blue Demons are 1-5 in the conference and just 10-8 overall. That has them falsely being billed as the pooch at home here. A close look sees the Demons losing to Minnesota by one point and to Ole Miss by two. DePaul's last five losses have occurred against #1 Syracuse, Villanova, Seton Hall, #15 Louisville and #12 Georgetown. Three of those were on the road and when they played the Hoyas at home this past Tuesday they hung around all game and lost by eight. South Florida is 4-2 in the conference and 11-8 overall but they're just 1-5 on the road. The Bulls have been getting it done on the defensive end but rank last in the league in scoring offense with 61 points per game. USF seems to find a new player to step up on offense when needed but again, its wins have come at home and now they'll play just its seventh road game of the year against a hungry host. One could argue that the Bulls have been winning through smoke and mirrors and do not deserve to be favored on the road with their one win. We'd have to second that motion. Play: DePaul +100 (Risking 2 units).

FREE NBA PLAY FOR 1/22: Milwaukee Bucks/Miami Heat UNDER 195.5 points. The under is showing excellent value here besides in the fact that it has cashed in 7 out of the last 9 times these clubs met. Milwaukee gets a break tonight, catching the Heat on the back end of back-to-back nights. Note that the under is 4-1 in Miami's last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Milwaukees offense is anemic on the road, averaging just 88 points/game, hitting just 41% from the floor. The Heat are allowing 93.9 points/game at home, but when you factor in the quality of the opponents they've faced it's fair to assess that they should hold the Bucks >90 points tonight. The under is 5-0 in Bucks last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and is 20-6 in their last 26 after scoring 100 points or more. The under is 5-2 in the Heats last 7 vs. losing teams, and 4-1 their last 5 at home vs the Bucks. Take the UNDER 195.5 points tonight. Our Free Plays are now 146-80-1, sign up today at iseewinners.com to receive all of our Free Releases via email. Thank you, and good luck!

Hollywood Sports

Niagara at Manhattan College
Play: Manhattan College

Manhattan (13-7) won their fourth game in a row after their 61-44 win at Marist on Friday -- and they have covered 9 of their last 11 games after a victory. The Jaspers are tough at home where they are 5-2 while having covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 home games. Niagara has won three games in a row after their 75-56 win at Canisius. But this club is still just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Manhattan has covered 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 7 games as a favorite in the 7-12.5 point range, the Jaspers have covered 6 of these contests. Lastly, the Points-Per-Possession metrics in conference play offers further evidence that this game sets up to be a mismatch. Niagara owns a net PPP differential in conference play of -0.01 (Offensive PPP: 1.04; Defensive PPP: 1.05). Manhattan, on the other hand, sports a strong net PPP differential of +0.13 PPP (Offensive PPP: 1.01; Defensive PPP: 0.88). On the comfort of their home court, Manhattan should dominate this game. Lay the points here.