Charlie Scott
Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots
Play: Baltimore Ravens
Old School Handicapping, The Ravens the Dog has the better Defense & running Game, while the favorite struggles on defense to make tackles. The Ravens are 6-0 S/U vs Playoff Teams this Season, while the Patriots were 1-2. Baltimore 2 of their 4 losses came after Wins vs the Steelers (their biggest Rival). Take The Points & hope Brady gets hurt !
Giants vs. 49ers
Play: Over
This Play is based more on "Feel" and public & Bookmaked overreaction to the Total. This Total started out at 45 and now due to weather concerns is down to 41 and might go lower by game time. Wait to bet this game, when the media talking heads say weather is terrible wait until game time, if the media talking heads say the weather is playable or Not that bad, Bet the Over then. Big Game Goes Over low Total !
Wunderdog
Capitals vs. Penguins
Play: Under 5.5
A pair of solid defensive teams meet on the ice in Pittsburgh and the last seven meetings between them we've seen a perfect 7-0 UNDER the total. Washington comes in on a 4-0 run to the UNDER with the offense scoring only 5 goals in those games, getting shut out twice. Coach Dale Hunter emphasizes more of a defensive posture for the Capitals than former coach Bruce Boudreau did. In fact, Washington has failed to crack the 25-shot mark in any of the past seven contests. The UNDER is 8-2 in the Capitals’ last 10 games when playing on one day of rest and 20-8-1 UNDER the total in their last 29 against the Atlantic division. Pittsburgh can also bring it defensively at 4-0-1 UNDER the total in the Penguins’ last five vs. a team with a winning record as well as 13-5-5 UNDER in their last 23 games playing on one day’s rest. Look for another slow-paced game with few shots or goals, so play this one UNDER the total.
Bryan Power
Indiana @ L.A. Lakers
PICK: Indiana
Returning home off back to back road losses, I expect most bettors to have the itch to "get down" on the Lakers this evening. Wrong move! Other than Kobe Bryant, this team cannot shoot. This is one of the league's worst three-point shooting teams at 25.7%. Incredibly, they have scored 100 points only ONCE all season. They've scored 87 or less in each of the last three games. Here, they'll be dealing with the Pacers, one of the league's most improved teams in 2012. Indiana is allowing just 89.3 PPG for the year, so the Lakers' offensive woes aren't likely to take a turn for the better here. The Pacers are also one of the better three-point shooting teams in the league at 38.2 percent. The Lakers are just 6-6 ATS when laying points. They are also 12-24 ATS off a loss, going back to last season. Oh yeah, one more thing. Former Lakers assistant Brian Shaw, who most targeted as Phil Jackson's successor, is now on the Indiana bench. Think the Pacers will be ready?
Teddy Covers
NFC Championship Game Prop: Total Field Goals OVER 3.5 (+115)
When these two teams met in November, they combined for six field goals by midway through the third quarter. This is nothing unusual for the 49ers, a team that has been heavily reliant on kicker David Akers and their stellar red zone defense all year. San Francisco finished the regular season ranked #4 in the NFL in red zone defense, holding teams out of the end zone more than 58% of the time. Eli Manning and the Giants reached the red zone four times in the first meeting, but only scored one TD. We can reasonably expect the Giants offense to stall in scoring position more than once today, setting for Lawrence Tynes field goal tries.
Meanwhile, the Niners own offense stalled repeatedly in the red zone throughout the regular season, ranked #29 out of 32 NFL teams in red zone touchdown percentage (just over 41%). Kicker David Akers led the league with 44 regular season field goal attempts. The #2 kicker in the NFL had only 33 made field goals. In a game of this magnitude, I expect both head coaches to opt for taking the points at every available opportunity. With a nice plus price attached to this field goal prop, we’ve got a solid opportunity for a positive return on investment by betting this total Over.
Black Widow
1* Miami Heat -9
The Miami Heat are on a tear right now, winners of three straight in blowout fashion. They topped the San Antonio Spurs by 22, the Los Angeles Lakers by 11, and the Philadelphia 76ers by 21. I look for the Heat to win by double-digits for a fourth consecutive game tonight when they host the Milwaukee Bucks. The Heat are 6-1 at home and outscoring opponents by 18.2 points/game, while the Bucks are 1-8 on the road, getting outscored by 7.4 points/game. The Bucks are just 2-7 ATS in their 9 road games, including 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Take Miami and lay the points.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Lakers -5.5
The Los Angeles Lakers have been like night and day home and away. They've been virtually unstoppable at home, but they can't seem to carry that game on the road. Fortunately, the Lakers return home tonight to try and put an end to a 2-game losing streak with road losses to the Heat and Magic Thursday and Friday.
The Lakers are 9-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 9.2 points/game. They are holding foes to just 84.6 points/game and 39.5 percent shooting at home. Head coach Mike Brown has certainly gotten this team to play defense at a very high level this year. That doesn't bode well for Indiana, which scores just 92.9 points/game on 41.5 percent shooting this season.
Brown is 50-28 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders in all games he has coached. The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference. Indiana is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Pacers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. The favorite is 12-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. L.A. is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home meetings with Indiana. Bet the Lakers Sunday.
Larry Ness
Wisc Green Bay vs Youngstown State
Pick: Youngstown State
Head coach Jerry Slocum entered this season feeling some ‘heat,’ as his Penguins finished 2-16 last year in the Horizon League and 9-21 overall. However, while no one expects Youngstown State to challenge for the league title this year, the team's 5-3 start in league play is noteworthy, as is the fact that at 10-8 overall, the Penguins have already surpassed last year’s win total. Fours starters returned from last year (did lose leading scorer Sulsksi at 13.1 PPG) and all four are starting again this year, with each one averaging in double digits. The group includes a trio of guards in Perry (14.3-4.2 APG), Allen (13.5-4.2) and Ward (11.1-4.2) plus the 6-7 Eargle (10.6-7.4). The 6-6 Brooks was a reserve last year (6.0-3.8) but starts TY, while averaging 9.6-5.4. The Penguins are not deep but this starting-five is pretty solid and the team is 6-1 SU at home, losing only to Robert Morris (a 15-6 team!). As for Wisconsin-Green Bay, the news isn’t good. Tom Kowalczyk spent eight years in Green Bay and while he never won the league title, he did compete and and did post two, 22-win seasons. He left for Toledo prior to the start of last season (plus took a couple of key players with him!) and his top assistant, Brian Wardle, saw the Phoenix struggle to a 14-18 season (8-10 in the Horizon) last year. He’ll have trouble matching that mark this year, as the team is 3-5 in league play and 7-11 overall. TEN of the team’s 11 losses have come on the road, where the Phoenix are 0-10! The 7-1 Alec Brown (13.4-7.7) will be the best “big man” on the court today but that WON’T be good enough for the Phoenix to get that elusive first road win. Penguins rule!
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Milwaukee/ Cleveland State Over 120: 8 of the last 9 in the series have gone Over the total, with no less than 129 points being scored in all 9 games. These teams have been involved in some higher scoring games than normal of late as 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games have hit at least 127 points, while 6 of Cleveland State's last 7 games have hit at least 129 points. Cleveland State's offense has been rolling of late as they have averaged 72.4 ppg on 48% shooting in their last 5 games, while at home they have scored 69.4 ppg on 47.1% shooting overall, including a impressive 48.4 from long range. They have also scored 67.5 ppg in Horizon League play, while hitting 46.5% of their shots overall and 41% from 3pt land. Milwaukee has struggled on the road to score where they have put up 59.5 ppg, but in their last 2 away from home they have averaged 63.5 ppg, while in their last 5 overall they have averaged 66.6 ppg, which has included putting up 84 points on a solid Detroit defense. Both of these teams have allowed just under 60 ppg for the year, but in their last 3 games the Vikings have allowed 69.7 ppg, while Milwaukee has allowed 63+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. Let's also note that Milwaukee's last 5 games have averaged 129.6 ppg, while the Viking's last 5 have put up 135 ppg. I really don't see anything here that would tell me that both teams can't reach the 60 point mark in this one. This game should hit at least 121 with ease. KEY TRENDS--- CLEVELAND ST is 15-5 OVER after 2 consecutive conference games over the last 2 seasons and 18-6 OVER when the total is 129.5 or less over the last 3 seasons.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Wisconsin/ Illinois Over 110: The Badgers have been awesome at the defensive end of the floor this year as they have allowed just 49 ppg, but they have allowed 59.7 ppg in their last 6 games within the Big 10, while on the road this year they have allowed 55 ppg. Illinois should be able to crack that defense some as they come in having scored 67.9 ppg overall, including 72.3 ppg at home. At home they have also shot 49.2% overall, including a solid 35.7% from long range. Wisconsin has struggled on offense of late as they have averaged just 59 ppg in their last 5 games, but with such an OU line that should be good enough here, especially since Illinois comes in allowing 62.6 ppg in their last 5 games on 45.6% shooting. The Badgers have shot the 3 ball very well on the road (39.8%), while in their last 5 overall this Illinois defense has allowed teams to hit 37.8% from long range. Let's also note that both teams are shooting 71.7% from the charity stripe as well and in what should be a close game that should come into play at the end of the game. Neither team will run, but their is more than enough offense for this game to Over this small OU line. I expect around 120 here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Over in all games where the total is 119.5 or less if the road team is a top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game, after allowing 60 points or less. This play is 31-11 since 1997.
3 UNIT PLAY
NC State +3.5 over MIAMI-FLA: The Wolfpack have been on a roll of late as they come in having won 8 of their last 9 games and they are 3-1 within the ACC. The Wolfpack have done a very good job at the offensive end of the floor this year, where they have averaged 76.9 ppg (34th) on 47.8% shooting (36th). The Canes have had a rough start to their ACC schedule as they are 1-2 and have had some problems scoring in those games. Miami is averaging over 71 ppg for the year, but once ACC play has started they have put up just 61 ppg, compared to the 75.5 ppg that the Wolfpack have put up in their 4 ACC games. NC State comes in playing really good at the defensive end, where they have allowed just 60.6 ppg in their their last 5 games, while Miami comes in having allowed 73 points in each of their last 2 games and 71.8 ppg in their last 4 games. Miami had a nice start to their season at 10-6, but they have really been inconsistent at the defensive end, where they have allowed 70+ pints in 8 of their last 11 games, including allowing 89 points to a weak Greensboro squad and I don't expect them to be able to slow the Wolfpack down here. NC State wins outright. KEY TRENDS--- NC STATE is 11-3 ATS in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons, while MIAMI is 1-8 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
2 UNIT PLAY
Minnesota/ Northwestern Under 136: Play Under if the home team is off a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better and they are an excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games. This play is 73-38 since 1997.
1 UNIT PLAY
Penn State +15.5 over INDIANA: PENN ST is 29-12 ATS in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997. , while NDIANA is 5-15 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Boston -3.5 over WASHINGTON: The Celtics have really struggled of late as it looks like the age factor seems to be catching up with them, due to the many games they have to play with the shortened NBA schedule, but I say they get back on track here. The Celts had lost their last 6 games played at home, so going out on the road versus a weak opponent like the Wizards may just be what the doctor ordered for this team. The Boston offense has really been a problem for this team, but they should really break out here vs a Washington team that has allowed 109.8 ppg in their last 5 games. Washington has put up 98.8 ppg in their last 5 games, but they still have scored just 92.9 ppg at home and will be taking on a Boston team that has been excellent at that end of the floor. Boston has allowed 100.2 ppg on the road, but overall they have given up just 90.1 ppg, while in their last 5 they have allowed just 86.8 ppg. Sometimes getting away from the pressures of home can help a struggling team and taking on the worst team in the league is an added bonus. I look for Boston to get back on track with a solid road win here.
MIAMI -9 over Milwaukee: With or with out Wade the Heat have been rolling of late, thanks to Lebron and the fact that this is a very deep team. Miami is off a 21 pt win over a very good Philadelphia team last night and they have now gone 6-1 at home and have outscored those opponents by 18.2 ppg. Milwaukee has really struggled on the road this year going 1-8, including losing by 12 points at the same Philly team that Miami blew out last night. Milwaukee has averaged just 87.9 ppg on the road while the Heat have averaged a very strong 112.1 ppg at home. The defense's are pretty even, but Miami at home with a HUGE edge on offense will get it done vs a Milwaukee squad that does not play well away from home.
New Jersey/ Clippers Under 192: Some really futile offense will be on display in NJ tonight. NJ comes in ranked 23rd in scoring and 28th (91.3 ppg) in FG% (41.1%), while at home they have averaged just 89.3 ppg on a mere 38% shooting. The Bobcats come in 24th in scoring (90.9 ppg) and 19th in FG% (43.3%), while on the road they have averaged just 91.5 ppg on 43.3% shooting. Neither defense has been that great this year as the nets are30thin points allowed, while the Bobcats are 29th, but these are two very bad shooting teams and I just don't see them being able to put alot points up vs these bad defenses. These teams will be hard pressed to hit 185 points.
2 UNIT PLAY
LAKERS -5.5 over Indiana: INDIANA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in road games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Lakers have struggled recently, but they are a good team at home and should get the job done here.
1 UNIT PLAY
Lakers/ Indiana over 179; INDIANA is 50-26 OVER in road games after playing a game as a road favorite since 1996., while LA LAKERS are 16-5 OVER in home games after scoring 80 points or less since 1996..
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
NEW ENGLAND -7 over Baltimore: I have a much longer writeup in the news section. This is a Google News Play. In looking at this game originally I was saying to my self "Take the Under", but after further the review the call on the field has been reversed. This is pretty simple the more I look at it. Brady has not had the greatest of numbers vs the Ravens, but this is a team on a mission that is looking for payback from the humiliating loss they suffered in the 2009 playoffs at the hands of the Ravens, in a game that saw Brady and company booed off the field. The Ravens defense is very good and really looked good last week, but facing a rookie QB making a postseason start on the road is not the same thing as facing Brady and the 300 weapons he has, plus Baltimore has struggled at times with teams that throw the ball all over the field. Bottom line here is that Brady and this offense is clicking on all cylinders right now and The Ravens won't be able to hold this team down, while on offnese Baltimore will not be able to put up enough points to keep this one close. New England 34-14. KEY TRENDS--- NEW ENGLAND is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) off 3 or more consecutive overs since 1992 and 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) after allowing 4 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
3 UNIT PLAY
NY Giants/ San Francisco Under 42: This game just has defense written all over it. The Giants defense has had a tough time this year, but they have done a very good job vs Atlanta and Green Bay in their last 2 games. The Giants pass rush has really been effective of late as they have grabbed 17 sacks in their last 4 games and that is not good for a Niners squad that has allowed a staggering 27 sacks in their last 7 games. The Niners will really need to run the ball a lot so they can take the pressure off of their offensive line and keep this fierce Giant pass rush at bay. It's a good thing they have the 8th ranked rushing offense to do this with, while the Giants are middle of the pack vs the run at 19th. The Giants can throw the ball , but the Niners did a really good job vs the Saints last week and they know that their defense must come up big if they wanna have any chance of winning this one. This game will not be a bout the pass, but a lot of running and defense. Both defenses are playing very well and if we add that to some bad weather that is expected, then we should get a game in the low 30's.
Tony Stoffo
South Florida vs. Depaul
Play: Over 137.5
The last 3 DePaul home games have all gone over the total with 155, 185, and 158 points scored. Today they will be facing a South Florida squad that when they faced at home last year resulted in a 86-76 final. Plus add in the fact that this DePaul defense is horrible this season ranking 319th in points allowed 75.1 and 331st in field goal % at 47.9 - you definitely can see why this game has a solid shot of going over the posted total here today. Heath is 24-12 Over in January games as the coach of S Florida. Purnell is 13-4 Over versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games as the coach of DePaul.