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Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 2,2011

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(@blade)
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DUNKEL INDEX

Carolina at Atlanta
The Falcons look to bounce back from their 17-14 loss to New Orleans and build on their 9-0 ATS record in their last 9 games after scoring less than 15 points in the previous game. Atlanta is the pick (-14) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 23 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-14)

Game 301-302: Oakland at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 130.489; Kansas City 132.783
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 4; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+4); Over

Game 303-304: Miami at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 132.093; New England 139.378
Dunkel Line: New England by 7 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Under

Game 305-306: Tennessee at Indianapolis (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 125.129; Indianapolis 137.117
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 12; 51
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 9 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-9 1/2); Over

Game 307-308: Jacksonville at Houston (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 129.877; Houston 130.517
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 2 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2 1/2); Under

Game 309-310: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 135.017; Cleveland 131.974
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 32
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+6 1/2); Under

Game 311-312: Cincinnati at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 125.385; Baltimore 140.222
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 15; 46
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 9 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-9 1/2); Over

Game 313-314: Minnesota at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 131.009; Detroit 131.455
Dunkel Line: Even; 48
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3 1/2); Over

Game 315-316: NY Giants at Washington (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 136.463; Washington 128.841
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 7 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-4); Under

Game 317-318: Chicago at Green Bay (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 137.095; Green Bay 143.975
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 7; 36
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 10; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+10); Under

Game 319-320: Dallas at Philadelphia (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 130.472; Philadelphia 144.306
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 14; 52
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 321-322: Buffalo at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 133.337; NY Jets 133.076
Dunkel Line: Even; 35
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+2);

Game 323-324: Carolina at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 118.002; Atlanta 141.337
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 23 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 14; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-14); Over

Game 325-326: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 131.555; New Orleans 141.157
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-7 1/2); Over

Game 327-328: St. Louis at Seattle (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 125.160; Seattle 124.557
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 40
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Under

Game 329-330: Arizona at San Francisco (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 118.712; San Francisco 129.418
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 10 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6; 38
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-6); Over

Game 331-332: San Diego at Denver (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 127.000; Denver 126.051
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 44
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3 1/2); Under

NCAAB

Penn State at Michigan
The Nitany Lions look to take advantage of a Michigan team that is coming off an 80-57 loss at home against Purdue and is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Penn State is the pick (+8) according to Dunkel, which has the Wolverines favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Penn State (+8)

Game 815-816: Rutgers at Villanova (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 58.539; Villanova 71.558
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 13
Vegas Line: Villanova by 15
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+15)

Game 817-818: Gonzaga at Wake Forest (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Gonzaga 67.595; Wake Forest 54.096
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-9 1/2)

Game 819-820: Florida International at UL-Monroe (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 44.547; UL-Monroe 48.127
Dunkel Line: UL Monroe by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: UL-Monroe by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (-1 1/2)

Game 821-822: Penn State at Michigan (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 58.923; Michigan 64.490
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan by 8
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (+8)

Game 823-824: Marshall at St. Bonaventure (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 55.670; St. Bonaventure 58.532
Dunkel Line: St. Bonaventure by 3
Vegas Line: St. Bonaventure by 2
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (-2)

Game 825-826: TCU at Rice (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 57.467; Rice 56.880
Dunkel Line: TCU by 1
Vegas Line: Rice by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TCU (+1 1/2)

Game 827-828: Arkansas-Little Rock at Denver (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas-Little Rock 51.975; Denver 54.256
Dunkel Line: Denver by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Denver by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas-Little Rock (+4 1/2)

Game 829-830: Middle Tennessee State at South Alabama (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 49.480; South Alabama 51.368
Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama

Game 831-832: LSU at Virginia (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 51.406; Virginia 60.612
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 9
Vegas Line: Virginia by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-5 1/2)

Game 833-834: Charlotte at Georgia Tech (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 54.357; Georgia Tech 62.904
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+10 1/2)

Game 835-836: Miami (OH) at Kansas (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 53.525; Kansas 82.483
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 29
Vegas Line: Kansas by 26 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-26 1/2)

Game 837-838: Wisconsin at Illinois (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 71.795; Illinois 71.155
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 1
Vegas Line: Illinois by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (+2 1/2)

Game 839-840: Miami (FL) at Duke (7:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 63.218; Duke 86.192
Dunkel Line: Duke by 23
Vegas Line: Duke by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-18 1/2)

Game 841-842: California at Stanford (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 62.759; Stanford 61.562
Dunkel Line: California by 1
Vegas Line: Stanford by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (+2 1/2)

Game 843-844: Arizona at Oregon State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 69.857; Oregon State 55.507
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-10 1/2)

Game 845-846: Elon at Columbia (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 47.619; Columbia 51.405
Dunkel Line: Columbia by 4
Vegas Line: Columbia by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Elon (+5 1/2)

Game 847-848: Eastern Kentucky at Georgia Southern (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 47.447; Georgia Southern 42.626
Dunkel Line: Eastern Kentucky by 5
Vegas Line: Eastern Kentucky by 2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (-2)

Game 849-850: Tennessee State at Memphis (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 48.512; Memphis 64.167
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Memphis by 17
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (+17)

Game 851-852: The Citadel at Clemson (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: The Citadel 46.134; Clemson 66.077
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 20
Vegas Line: Clemson by 22
Dunkel Pick: The Citadel (+22)

Game 853-854: Portland State at Idaho State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 48.540; Idaho State 51.724
Dunkel Line: Idaho State by 3
Vegas Line: Idaho State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Idaho State (-1)

Game 855-856: College of Charleston at Morehead State (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 58.265; Morehead State 61.296
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 3
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (-2)

Game 857-858: Davidson at Vanderbilt (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 56.812; Vanderbilt 70.428
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 15
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (+15)

Game 861-862: Boston U. at Maine (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston U. 54.385; Maine 55.340
Dunkel Line: Maine by 1
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 863-864: Binghamton at LaSalle (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Binghamton 43.038; LaSalle 57.037
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 14
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 865-866: New Hampshire at Albany (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Hampshire 43.847; Albany 51.456
Dunkel Line: Albany by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 867-868: Stony Brook at UMBC (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stony Brook 43.618; UMBC 38.648
Dunkel Line: Stony Brook by 5
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

 
Posted : December 31, 2010 9:04 am
(@blade)
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Carlo Campanella

St Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: St Louis Rams -1

The winner of this St. Louis (7-8) and Seattle (6-9) battle will win the NFC West title and advance to the Playoffs with a losing record. We want no part of a Seattle squad that has had plenty of opportunities to take control of this Division, but lost 5 of their last 6 games, with their only victory coming against 2-13 Carolina. In fact, St. Louis dominated the first meeting between these teams back on October 3, winning at home 20-3, as rookie QB Sam Bradford was starting his 4th NFL game of his career. The Rams are 3-2 SU & ATS during their last five games, with their losses coming against Kansas City and New Orleans, both Playoff-caliber squads. The Rams out-gained Seattle in that first meeting, 349 offensive yards to 257 yards, and must back the Rams with the Division crown up for grabs, as QB Bradford now has a season under his belt.

 
Posted : December 31, 2010 9:12 am
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NellyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta - over CarolinaFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Laying a lot of points in the NFL is not a good long term strategy but this should be a great situation for the Falcons back at home to close out the season. Carolina got a big win over Arizona two weeks ago but then was not even remotely competitive against Pittsburgh last week. The Panthers have good defensive numbers overall but they have allowed at least 27 points in each of the last four road games and for a team that is scoring 12 points per game on offense that is an impossible hurdle to overcome. After a brutal loss last week the Falcons should be fired up to enter the playoffs on a high note, still needing to win this game to clinch the top seed in the NFC. A loss here could drop the Falcons to the #5 seed, a huge difference so Coach Smith will have hit team ready to play. After the two other losses this season the Falcons scored 41 and 39 points so a big day from the offense should be expected. There may be risk for a backdoor cover as Atlanta could rest players late in the game if a large lead is reached but Carolina’s offense has not been able to score points even against some of the worst defenses in the league. Atlanta won 31-10 when these teams met in Charlotte in early December and while Atlanta is not a dominating statistical team this should be a good situation to deliver a blowout. A nice send off for Coach John Fox is likely not possible as this is a team that has not rallied around the coach and the young offensive players in the previous weeks.

 
Posted : December 31, 2010 8:11 pm
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Sports InsightsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
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With this being the last week of the NFL regular season, betting action is fairly spotty. Bettors are staying away from certain games. However, the match-up between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers is one of the heaviest-bet games of the week. It features the playoff-bound Steelers, who are still "playoff-positioning" -- as they vie for the divisional title (with Baltimore). The public is jumping on the visiting Steelers to beat Cleveland by a touchdown or more -- in this meaningful game for the Steelers.
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About three out of four bets are taking the Steelers, so Cleveland has the "betting against the Public" factor going for it. In addition, this game features reverse line movement, an indication of "smart money" coming in on the home dog. With 73% of the bets taking the Steelers, the line has actually decreased from its opener of Cleveland +6 down to +5.5. The Steelers remain one of the NFL's elite teams, but Cleveland has been competitive this season. Let's "bet against the Public" and check out some other betting trends on this match-up:
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* The Steelers are a solid 11-4. However, in this age of balance within the league, four of Pittsburgh's last 7 wins have been by less than a TD.
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* The Browns are just 5-10 -- but have scored almost as many points as they have given up (262-291).
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* Sports fans often over-estimate "games that matter" for one of the teams. Cleveland is at home -- for a divisional rivalry game. They will "come to play."
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* The Browns have shown that they can play solid football , beating teams like New England and New Orleans in the middle of the season (before losing a close game to the Jets).
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* After looking competitive at the middle of the season, Cleveland has lost three games in a row. We'll "buy" the Browns to bounce back at home, to end the season.
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* The Browns look like a "live home dog" getting some decent points.
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* Note that home dogs have historically been a good bet, especially late in the NFL season, as mentioned in this academic article.
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Remember to shop around for the best line and try to grab the +6 at some public books. SIA currently has the game listed at +6, with the best associated odds, for added line value.
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Cleveland Browns +6

 
Posted : December 31, 2010 9:05 pm
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Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit LionsLARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Minnesota VikingsLARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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It's not often you find a team that won and covered as a 13-point point favorite in the first meeting in a NFL division rivalry dress up as a dog in the rematch to a .250 opponent, no less. Meet the Minnesota Vikings, arguably the most displaced team in the league. Playing on five days of rest and in its first game in a regularly scheduled venue in a month, the Vikes have gone where no team in the NFL has since the firing of Brad Childress five weeks ago. The question is whether the perceived value in this contest outweighs the storyline. We feel it does. For openers, while dressing up as underdogs for only the third time in the last 28 meetings, Minny brings the superior defense into this fray. There is no refuting the fact that Detroit is playing its best ball of the season, riding a three-game win streak (all as underdogs). Our database reminds us, though, that while the last time the Lions managed to win four games in a row was in 1999, they bring a 1-7 straight up mark into this contest in games off three consecutive victories over the last 15 years. Toss in Minnesota's dominating 20-2 SU record in this series this millennium (a pair of three-point losses) and you have all the makings of yet another upset in the making. We recommend a 1-unit play on Minnesota.

 
Posted : December 31, 2010 11:07 pm
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Hollywood SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsLARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Atlanta FalconsLARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Handicapping the last week of the NFL's regular season can be tricky given the fact that a handful of teams are playing with questionable motivations. Some playoff teams can not improve their playoff position so they will bench their starters at some point of the game. Losing teams may be just playing out the string anxious to get home. The latter may very well be the case for the Carolina Panthers (2-13) who will most likely be playing their last game under head coach John Fox whose contract expires this season. Fox is unlikely to return. The Panthers have already clinched the worst record in the league and the top pick in April's draft. Atlanta, on the other hand, has much to play for as they need a victory to secure the top seed in the NFC playoffs. A loss here -- combined with a New Orleans win -- would see the Falcons' playoff position slip to 5th which would likely keep them away from the Georgia Dome in the playoffs. Atlanta looks to bounce-back from their 17-14 loss to the Saints on Monday -- and they have covered the spread in 9 straight games after failing to score more than two touchdowns in their last game. The Falcons have also covered 5 straight times against teams with a losing record. While they are laying plenty of wood here, the Panthers' offensive woes will make this challenge easier to accomplish. Carolina's 27-3 loss to the Steelers last week was the 5th time this season that they failed to score at least 10 points. The Panthers' 12.4 PPG average as well as their 256.3 total YPG mark are both at the bottom of the NFL. The Panthers are 0-7 on the road with an average losing margin of 11.7 points. Carolina has also failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. With home field advantage during the playoffs at stake, the Falcons will have their "A-Game" against an overwhelmed Panthers club. Feel comfortable laying all those points on a good and inspired Atlanta team in Week 17.

 
Posted : December 31, 2010 11:08 pm
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WunderdogFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Bears vs. PackersFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 41.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a huge spot for the Packers as they punch their ticket to the playoffs with a win. I'm sure that they have been reminded of the 18 penalties and punt return for a TD that robbed them of a win in Chicago early in the season, or they would already be in the playoffs. They also have the recent memory of Philadelphia coming back with 28 points in less than eight minutes vs. the Giants, so this won't be get a lead and take a knee. This will be vintage Packers offense vs. a team that has nothing to play for here. I expect the Packers to score early and often in this game. The Bears have played each of their last five games to the OVER, and all of their last eight January games have gone OVER as well. The Packers offense knows how to carry momentum. After gaining 350+ in their last game they are 17-6 to the OVER in their next game. Under Mike McCarthy, the Pack is a perfect 7-0 OVER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points and 11-3 OVER at home to a total in between 38.5 and 42. This one goes OVER the total.

 
Posted : January 1, 2011 7:13 pm
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Teddy CoversFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
PICK: San Diego Chargers -3.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Think San Diego is going to lay down in their season finale now that their playoff chances have evaporated following their loss at Cincinnati last week? Think again! These two quotes paint a clear picture of the Chargers attitude as they travel to Denver.
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Philip Rivers: “The phrase 'the game doesn't mean anything' bothers me more than anything. It means something to play in this league and to play in this game. I'll never underappreciate the opportunity to play in an NFL game. ...If we had a pickup basketball game outside it'd mean something. We're going to play in it. We're going to try to win and get to 9-7. We want to finish over .500.”
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Head coach Norv Turner, who was given a vote of confidence from management earlier this week: “We’re going to go play the football game to win. I’ve never been involved in a meaningless game….Every time you go out and play you’re representing yourself and you’re representing your organization.”
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The Broncos got blasted by this team, a three TD loss in Week 11. They got blasted by this team right here at Invesco Field last year, a 32-3 embarrassment. They are not likely to have their only decent cornerback, Champ Bailey, on the field this Sunday; very bad news against the Chargers big play passing offense. Denver is without kicker Matt Prater and his 60 yard leg. Running back Knowshon Moreno is banged up again, and Tim Tebow is the team’s leading rusher since he took over as the starting QB two games ago.
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Tebow completed eight passes in his debut at Oakland. He was shut out for a full half against the Texans last week, a difficult task to accomplish against the league’s worst defense. Don’t expect a breakout performance from a mediocre (at best) rookie QB facing this elite level Chargers defense. 2* Take San Diego.

 
Posted : January 1, 2011 7:14 pm
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SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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DETROIT –3½ over Minnesota
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The Eagles pulled a complete no show against the Vikes on Tuesday and that’s what happens when you’re a 14-point favorite and figure all you need to do is show up. That win has the Vikes way overvalued here. Had Philly showed up and blown out the Vikes like they were supposed to the Lions might be a 6½ or 7-point choice here. That unlikely win has set up a perfect setting the lay the points. Minnesota will play on five days rest and couldn’t give a rat’s behind about this game. The Lions, meanwhile, are playing great football and suddenly they’re finding ways to win games as oppose to finding ways to lose. That’s a big sign of a team on the rise and with three wins in a row and a chance to end the year at home and create a lot of interest for next season expect the Lions to give it everything they have. Play: Detroit –3½ +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
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INDIANAPOLIS –9½ over Tennessee
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We guess the Titans would like the make life miserable for the Colts and under favorable conditions they might have been able to. Thing is, the Titans are a garbage team with no pass rush whatsoever and giving Peyton Manning time to operate is a disaster waiting to happen. The Colts control its own destiny and a win here puts them in and there’s no way this defenseless invader is going to get in the way of that. Seriously, Tennessee’s defense is a joke beyond a joke. They don’t tackle well, they’re soft and they simply cannot stop anyone. The Titans only chance of keeping this close is if they put up 21 or more and that’s not going to happen either. Blowout city from the first quarter and beyond. Play: Indianapolis –9½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
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Miami +1.95 over NEW ENGLAND
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Man is this sweet or what? Here we have a Dolphins team that is going to show up for sure playing a Pats team that has nothing to play for whatsoever. The Pats minus every regular is equivalent to Miami playing the Carolina Panthers and now the books are offering +1.95 on the 6-1 road Dolphins. This is a must bet. Play: Miami +1.95 (Risking 2 units).
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CLEVELAND +6 over Pittsburgh
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How do we know this is an overlay? It’s simple. The Ravens in the exact same scenario last week were a 3½-point favorite in Cleveland and now the Steelers, who are worse than the Ravens are two points more. For those of you who bet on Baltimore, congratulations are in order but you know it as much as we do that the Brownies were supposed to cover that game and probably should have won outright. The Ravens got the bounces but were not the better team. In a similar situation exactly a year ago, that being the Steelers in a must win situation against Cleveland, the Steelers lost outright and missed the playoffs. This year they’re in so the game isn’t as crucial, but the result is likely going to be the same. These Steelers simply do not warrant this price against a dangerous Brownies squad that can run the ball and that plays rock solid defense. Those who bet Baltimore last week got away with it but won’t be so fortunate this week. Play: Cleveland +6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

 
Posted : January 1, 2011 7:16 pm
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Raiders (7-8) at Chiefs (10-5)
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The Chiefs are too young and too eager to sacrifice anything and even though they’ve locked up their division, they still have much to play for. With a win, the Chiefs are the #3 seed in the AFC and would likely host the Jets next week. A loss here and Kansas City will likely fall to the #4 seed and then host either the Ravens or Steelers. The Chiefs are undefeated on this field and they will not lack motivation in avenging an earlier loss in hated Oakland. The Raiders are done for this year and its defence clearly appears gassed after giving up piles of points this past month. Chiefs should roll here. TAKING: CHIEFS –4
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Vikings (6-9) at Lions (5-10)
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Minnesota pulls a huge upset over the Eagles on Tuesday night and suddenly everyone is juiced up over the Vikings. That works well for us here as the focus could be on the wrong team. The Lions have quietly won three straight and will be greeted by encouraged fans after the Lions road drought ended with consecutive away wins. Detroit has been money all year with 11 covers thus far and now playing with more confidence than ever. Lions passing game can move the ball against Minny’s porous defence, especially with a weak secondary having to work twice in five days. TAKING: LIONS –3
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Titans (6-9) at Colts (9-6)
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Maybe these aren’t same Colts as yesteryear but they still have the experienced, talented and headsy Peyton Manning under center. Indianapolis must win this one to qualify for post-season play and that should be a walk in the park against the putrid visitor. Tennessee has one win in past two months, its defence is clearly wearing down and the Colts have been mixing its running game with its potent passing game facing successfully over past couple of weeks. Indy has taken its usual route to playoffs but after this route, they’ll be there just the same. TAKING: COLTS –10
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Jaguars (8-7) at Texans (5-10)
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Jags can still make playoffs but that is contingent upon the Titans upsetting the Colts. Although highly unlikely, stranger things have happened and until the mathematics say otherwise, Jacksonville will put forth full effort. Houston’s mental makeup is not that of a spoiler. TAKING: JAGUARS –2
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Steelers (11-4) at Browns (5-10)
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Can someone please explain how the Ravens were a 3½-pt choice in here last week and now the Steelers are nearly double that? The Browns hung with the Ravens in that one and we have less faith in Pittsburgh’s offence than we do Baltimore’s. TAKING: BROWNS +6
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Bengals (4-11) at Ravens (11-4)
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Bengals have actually been better with ‘star’ receivers out of line up but they will face a Baltimore squad that will be going full guns here in attempt to win division and improve playoff placement. Ravens have failed to cover just four times in previous 18 versus losing clubs. TAKING: RAVENS –9½
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Giants (9-6) at Redskins (6-9)
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The Giants playoff hopes are remote as they need the Packers to lose a Bears team that will not be playing for anything and is likely to rest most starters. The Redskins have been better since Rex Grossman took over at QB and a continuance would not surprise. TAKING: REDSKINS +4
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Bears (11-4) at Packers (9-6)
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Despite what Lovie Smith may have indicated, it would be shocking to see Chicago starters on the field for very long. Lovie was in similar situation in 2006 and sat key guys before making it to Super Bowl when it counted. Packers must win to hold on to playoff spot. TAKING: PACKERS –10
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Dolphins (7-8) at Patriots (13-2)
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Don’t be afraid. We realize this line is low and that the Dolphins are uninspiring but the Patriots care little about their record and with home field secured for playoffs, New England’s second and third stringers will see plenty of action in this one. Besides, goofy Fish are 6-1 on road this year. TAKING: DOLPHINS +4
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Bills (4-11) at Jets (10-5)
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Rex Ryan can be unconventional at times but he’d have to be a fool to allow starting QB Mark Sanchez onto the field this week. The Jets could go from a #6 seed to a #5 seed but either way, they will start playoffs on the road next week. Buffalo resilient after a loss and have played well here recently. TAKING: BILLS +1
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Panthers (2-13) at Falcons (12-3)
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Atlanta earns home field throughout playoffs with a victory here and after rare loss at home and with league’s lowest scoring team visiting, this one has romp written all over it. Carolina is winless on road this season while being outscored by a 180-98 in the process. TAKING: FALCONS –14½
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Buccaneers (9-6) at Saints (11-4)
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The Saints could still capture the NFC South but that would require the Panthers to defeat the Falcons in Atlanta. Saints coach Sean Payton is a realist and with playoff activity secure and a trip to winner of NFC Worst on deck, it wouldn’t surprise to see the Saints at half speed. TAKING: BUCCANEERS +8
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Rams (7-8) at Seahawks (6-9)
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The loser of this one goes home, the winner goes home after next week. While the Rams are improving and the Seahawks have been appalling, it is difficult to ask this young visitor to be spotting road points in such a crucial game. Seattle 4-3 at home while Rams 2-5 away.TAKING: SEAHAWKS +3
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Cardinals (5-10) at 49ers (5-10)
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The Cardinals haven’t really been playing any better, they just have been getting better results. Niners have been horrid for most of season but finally rid of Mike Singletary last week and new guy likely to have better game planning abilities than clueless exiled coach. TAKING: 49ERS –6
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Chargers (8-7) at Broncos (4-11)
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Tim Tebow gets a third-straight start here and while both teams will be watching playoffs from home, this price appears unusually low. Denver has won just six of its past 23 games and its tentative rookie quarterback not capable making up 35-14 disparity from first meeting. TAKING: CHARGERS –3½
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Cowboys (5-10) at Eagles (10-5)
LINE: No line as Cowboys quarterback situation undetermined.

 
Posted : January 1, 2011 7:20 pm
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Lenny Del Genio

NY Giants at Washington
Play: Washington

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Here we go with another late season swoon from the New York Giants under HC Tom Coughlin, as the team has gone from surefire playoff contender to 'outside looking in' in just two weeks time. With the Miracle at the Meadowlands II still obviously weighing on their minds, we played against the G-Men last week and were rewarded with a 45-17 win on the Packers as the New York D has now yielded 73 points over the last six quarters. Washington has revenge for five straight losses in this series and would love nothing more than to knockout a Giant.

 
Posted : January 2, 2011 12:51 am
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Sean Murphy

Jaguars @ Texans
PICK: Under 46

I'm not sure where the offense is going to come from in this matchup.

The Jaguars will be without both their starting QB David Garrard and RB Maurice Jones-Drew. You don't have to follow the Jags closely to know that their offense begins and ends with those two guys.

It's not as if Jacksonville enters this game in top form offensively to begin with. The Jags have seen their point production decrease in each of their last three games, going from 38 to 24 to 17 points.

The Texans will once again be without WR Andre Johnson this week. That's not good news for a team that has scored only 40 points in the last two weeks, against two non-playoff contending opponents in the Titans and Broncos. Houston has scored more than 24 points only once in its last five games.

The first meeting between these teams this season produced 55 total points, but keep in mind, Andre Johnson went off for 146 yards and a touchdown on nine catches while Maurice Jones-Drew ran for 100 yards and a pair of scores. With neither on the field this week, the Jags and Texans will be hard-pressed to get into the 40s. Take the under.

 
Posted : January 2, 2011 12:52 am
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James Patrick Sports

Bears vs. Packers

A sweet system in play for us here as we PLAY ON any NFL .500 > team who won seven or more games last season in their Last Home Game of the season with division revenge if they are off a SU & ATS win versus a .500 > opponent off a SU and ATS win. This has provided a solid ATS Record Since 1980 of (10-0-1). In the NFL on Sunday, the Big Man's complimentary selection is the Green Bay Packers.

 
Posted : January 2, 2011 1:06 am
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Tom Freese

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia will be with out Mike Vick in this game. In fact the Eagles might rest many players in this game. The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in Week 17. The Eagles are 2-4 ATS straight up against the Cowboys and they are 2-4 ATS their six meetings with the Cowboys. Dallas is 5-2 ATS their last 7 games overall. Dallas is 4-0 ATS vs. team with a winning record and they are 4-0 ATS their last 4 games as underdogs. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS their last 4 games with the Eagles.

 
Posted : January 2, 2011 8:42 am
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Scott Rickenbach

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are off of a loss on Monday Night football as they fell short versus New Orleans. That makes this a huge game for Atlanta as they need a win to lock up the NFC South division plus notch the #1 seed for the NFC post-season. Though we're not fond of laying huge points in the NFL, there is absolutely a huge gap between these two teams right now. The Falcons have won and covered three of the last four meetings between the teams and that included a 31 to 10 win just a few weeks ago and that game was at Carolina.

Now Atlanta is hosting the Panthers and this match-up has all the makings of a blowout. Carolina is absolutely getting horrific QB play as Claussen certainly was not the answer! The Panthers are getting outgained by an average of well over 100 yards per game on the road this season and they now face a fired up, angry Falcons team looking to make amends for Monday's tight loss. That spells blowout win this week in Atlanta! Consider a small play on Atlanta minus the big number on Sunday afternoon.

 
Posted : January 2, 2011 8:42 am
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