Matt Fargo
San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos +3.5
This is a game where we have two teams coming in with different attitudes. The Chargers lost in Cincinnati last Sunday which knocked them out of playoff contention so divisional game or not, this game is going to be difficult to get up for. San Diego got off to another slow start this season but made another late season push before losing at home to Oakland and then at the Bengals. With the goal of the playoffs dead, San Diego is already looking forward to the offseason. Denver meanwhile snapped its five-game losing streak last Sunday at home against Houston as it rallied from a two-touchdown deficit to pull out the one-point win. The Broncos now come into this week with momentum and confidence and they to end the season on a high. Tim Tebow is making another start and the team seems to be rallying to close strong. Ending the year on a two game winning streak is pretty big for this team that had another highly disappointing season. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers pretty much summed it up and gave us a glimpse of what could come Sunday. “We have the right makeup. We have the right approach. It's just a matter of getting it done,” Rivers said. “It's disappointing. I'm dealing with knowing we're not going to the postseason. It will be tough, but it's reality.” This is a pretty big revenge game for the Broncos as well as they were defeated in San Diego on Monday night Football by 21 points. Denver falls into a great underdog situation as well. Play on underdogs or pickems after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games going up against an opponent after a loss by 10 or more points. This situation is 50-20 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. Also the Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as road favorites between 3.5 and 10 points while the Broncos are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog. 3* (332) Denver Broncos
Steve Merril
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -6
San Francisco was eliminated from the playoffs last week when they lost at St. Louis, but the 49ers should still play hard today, especially after head coach Mike Singletary was fired. Defensive line coach Jim Tomsula has been named the interim coach for this game and players normally rally around a new head coach and give extra effort. Both Arizona and San Francisco enter with identical 5-10 SU records, but the 49ers are the much better team and this was evident one month ago when San Francisco won easily 27-6 at Arizona on Monday night football. There was nothing misleading about the final score as the 49ers dominated the game with a 26-8 first down edge and a 261-13 rushing advantage. Arizona is a terrible 1-6 SU (2-5 ATS) on the road this season and they even lost against the worst team in the league, Carolina 12-19, two weeks ago. Last week’s 27-26 home win versus the Cowboys was misleading as Dallas had a 3-0 turnover deficit and had to use their third-string quarterback, but the Cowboys still held a dominating 24-10 first down edge and a 382-271 total yard edge overall.
Rob Vinciletti
Portland State vs. Idaho State
Play: Portland State +1.5
Portland St has played a much tougher schedule than Idaho St. In fact their last 3 games were against Boise St, Washington St and St. Mary's. Today they travel to Idaho St. In the series they have won 20 of the past 28 meetings. When they play poor offensive teams that average less than 65 points per game they are 8-2 straight up. Idaho St squeaked past a mediocre Sacramento St last out and they have big trouble with winning teams going just 8-29 against them. When they are installed as a home favorite of 3 or less they are a poor 5-15 ats. Look for Portland St to relish the drop in class today.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Tennessee Titans +10
Tennessee took Indy right down to the wire on Dec. 9, losing by just 2 points. With a chance to play spoiler, expect the Titans to give the Colts another game today.
While Indy's run defense has performed better in recent weeks, I'm far from sold. The Colts face one of the league's very best backs today in Chris Johnson, and I expect him to have a big game. He helped Tennessee average over 4.8 yards per carry in the season's first meeting. Plus, it cannot be overlooked that Tennessee is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games versus poor rushing defenses allowing 130 or more rushing yards per game over the last 3 seasons.
The Colts haven't won by more than 10 points in any of their last 8 games. It is also worth noting that they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Take the points.
Steve Janus
2* Panthers +14.5
John Fox is coaching what figures to be his final game with the Panthers, as he will not rejoin the team after this game, and I think Carolina will want to send Fox out with a strong performance against the Falcons. Atlanta is coming off a very emotional and intense loss against the Saints last week, and it will be hard for the Falcons to get excited to play a Carolina team they crushed earlier this season.
The Panthers are 22-10 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent since 1992, and are 12-3 ATS after scoring 6 points or less in their previous game since 1992.
The Falcons are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Info Plays
3* Arizona Cardinals +6
1) The 49ers are a mess, as they just fired Mike Singletary with just one week remaining, and with the 49ers having no shot at making the playoffs, look for this team to really come out flat against the Cardinals on Sunday. Arizona is fighting to end the season strong, and have looked much better since John Skelton took over at quarterback.
2) Play on - any team (Cardinals) - revenging a home loss against opponent by 14 points or more, as its 58-28 over the last 5 seasons.
3) The Cardinals are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0, and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 17.
Ray Monohan
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Green Bay Packers -9½
Go ahead I dare you! Try to figure out how the Bears will perform. Even if their first string offense is on the field they sometimes struggle, and at Lambeau I'm just scared for Mike Martz and Jay Cutler. The Packers can really get after the ball, and well, the Bears LOVE to give up sacks. I think you will see Jay Cutler out there for a few series with all of the key skill players, especially Devin Hester and Matt Forte, looking on from the sidelines. Backup QB Todd Collins has lots of experience so he shouldn’t embarrass himself out there too to much. Packers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Weather should NOT play much of a factor in this one. These two teams are used to the cold. The high isn't expected to inch past 20 degrees Sunday in Green Bay, but the frigid temperatures aren't likely to be accompanied by snow. Rodgers has completed 71.9 percent of his passes for 1,682 yards with 15 touchdowns and one interception. Rodgers returned from the concussion last week to throw for a career-high 404 yards and four touchdowns. He is 10-1 in his past 11 home starts. It is the last game of the season and if Green Bay wins they continue into the playoffs. They way I see this going down is with Rodgers feeling better as of late, the Bears resting starters, this game could ugly fast and I think the Pack will win by 14+.
Wunderdog
Bears vs. Packers
Play: Over 41.5
This is a huge spot for the Packers as they punch their ticket to the playoffs with a win. I'm sure that they have been reminded of the 18 penalties and punt return for a TD that robbed them of a win in Chicago early in the season, or they would already be in the playoffs. They also have the recent memory of Philadelphia coming back with 28 points in less than eight minutes vs. the Giants, so this won't be get a lead and take a knee. This will be vintage Packers offense vs. a team that has nothing to play for here. I expect the Packers to score early and often in this game. The Bears have played each of their last five games to the OVER, and all of their last eight January games have gone OVER as well. The Packers offense knows how to carry momentum. After gaining 350+ in their last game they are 17-6 to the OVER in their next game. Under Mike McCarthy, the Pack is a perfect 7-0 OVER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points and 11-3 OVER at home to a total in between 38.5 and 42. This one goes OVER the total.
Tom Stryker
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
PICK: Indianapolis Colts -9.5
Tennessee will be elated when the regular season comes to an end. The Titans are on a dismal 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS run and they're suffering through one of their worst year's ever. That's not the case for Indianapolis. The Colts can pick up the AFC South title and host a playoff game next week provided they can find a way to win today.
Indy enters this contest off an impressive straight up road win at Oakland and that victory places the Colts in a tremendous wagering situation. According to my NFL database, Indianapolis is a reliable 67-42 ATS in their next game when checking in off a straight up win including a sensational 48-24 ATS in this role matched up against an opponent that does NOT check in with serious momentum off two or more straight up wins.
The Titans haven't had much luck with the Colts recently either posting a dismal 3-12 SU and 6-9 ATS record in their last 15 meetings. To make matters worse, Tennessee has struggled when going into momentum notching a woeful 10-23 SU and 11-21-1 ATS record when matched up against an opponent that checks in off two or more straight up victories.
Those two team trends are nice but this next system really makes this investment pop. Since 1980, home teams in the regular season finale are a respectable 54-34 ATS provided they enter off a straight up win and their foe arrives off a straight up loss. If our host enters off a victory of four points or more last and our opponent arrives off a blemish of seven points or more, this system tightens up to a rewarding 28-9 ATS! Indianapolis fits this situation and the tightener perfectly.
The Colts know what's on the line this afternoon and they are a team that knows how to finish. All the Titans want is for 2010 to be over. Take Indianapolis.
JIM FEIST
BUFFALO BILLS / NEW YORK JETS
PLAY: BUFFALO BILLS
The Bills (4-11 SU/8-6-1 ATS) are playing well on offense, on a 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS run. The offense is clicking since QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (23 TDs, 15 INTs) took over for Trent Edwards after two games. He teams with a new offensive coordinator who likes an uptempo style, plus rookie RB C.J.Spillner and WRs Steve Johnson and Roscoe Parrish (injured WR Lee Evans is done for the year). Buffalo is averaging 20 points a game in the 13 games that Ryan Fitzpatrick has played quarterback. They are not quitting for first year Coach Chan Gailey. Fitzpatrick has thrown a TD pass in 15 of the last 16 games. The Jets (10-5 SU/9-6 ATS) have been up and down wildly in the second half of the season, winning at Pittsburgh (22-17) with their dominant defense, but also getting blown out at New England (45-3) and Sunday.5?s 38-34 loss at Chicago. The run defense gave up 120 yards to a bad Chicago O-line, while Jay Cutler struck for 215 yards and 3 TDs in the air. Even in that win at Pittsburgh they gave up 378 yards (147 rushing). QB Mark Sanchez (17 TDs, 12 INTs) may have decent overall numbers and several heroic comebacks, but the last ten games he has 9 TDs, 12 picks. They are in the playoffs regardless of this game, so this week.5?s game with the Bills changed from must-win into a chance to rest some regulars. Jets coach Rex Ryan is considering resting Mark Sanchez and other starters against Buffalo. The offense is balanced, with a good offensive line, RBs LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonne Greene leading a ground attack that is No. 6 in the league (138 yds rushing pg) and has rushed for more than 170 yards three times. But the Jets are the fourth-most penalized team in the NFL. They had been a freefall, a 45-3 loss at New England on Monday night, then coming home to face Miami and coughing it up, a 10-6 loss. WRs Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes didn.5?t help with several key drops. The defense is No. 5 in the NFL in yards allowed and 19 ppg. NY is on an 11-3 run over the total and 4-3 SU/3-4 ATS at home. This might be the last game for the Bills, but I don't see any quit in this team. Take the Bills against a disinterested Jets club.
Joel Tyson
Oakland at KANSAS CITY (-3')
For your Sunday comp play release, take the Kansas City Chiefs who are looking to sew up the # 3 seed in the AFC and avoid an early trip to New England along the way.
Oakland did win the first meeting of the year versus Kansas City in overtime, and they have won their last 3 visits to Arrowhead, while going 7-0-1 against the spread their last 8 visits to KC!
Daunting numbers for sure, but the fact the Raiders have allowed 31 points or more in 4 of their 6 games since their bye week is troubling.
Kansas City is looking to roll the perfect 8-for-8 straight up at home with the win today, and they have covered in 5 of their 7 home wins thus far.
I say lay it with the Chiefs.
4♦ KANSAS CITY
Karl Garrett
Pittsburgh (-5') at CLEVELAND
Still plenty on the line for the visiting Steelers who need to nail down the # 2 seed in the AFC with the win in this game.
G-Man says not only to the Steelers get the win, they get the cover, as the Cleveland offense has really sputtered to the finish line, scoring just 46 points over their last 4 games. Not surprisingly, the Brownies enter with a 3 game losing streak straight up, and just 1 cover in their last 7 games overall.
Pittsburgh has had a few extra days to get ready for this one, as their last game came before Christmas as the Steelers mauled the Panthers 27-3. I can forsee a similar result today, as the Steelers did dump the Browns 28-10 in the season's first meeting back on October 17th, and they are also 5-2 against the spread their last 7 visits to Cleveland Stadium.
Colt McCoy or Jake Delhomme vs. Ben Roethlisberger?
There is nothing to think about here. There is too much on the line for the Steelers, and I don't see them missing this chance to get a playoff bye secured.
Gotta lay the road wood with the Steelers this Sunday afternoon.
5♦ PITTSBURGH
Stephen Nover
Pittsburgh (-5') at CLEVELAND
Cleveland has defeated Pittsburgh once in their past 14 meetings failing to cover in 11 of those 14 games. It was no contest in their last meeting back on Week 6 with the Steelers winning, 28-10.
Expect a similar result this time. Pittsburgh has a division title on the line. Cleveland is worn down. The Browns' main offensive cog, Peyton Hillis, is battered and no longer effective leaving rookie Colt McCoy exposed with his lack of arm strength and below average wide receivers.
Pittsburgh's proud veterans aren't going to let this game slip when a win clinches the AFC North and a No. 2 seed, which gives it a first-round bye. The Steelers are 6-1 on the road and won't be bothered by weather concerns.
The Browns have faded after overachieving and being competitive earlier in the season. They have lost many key defensive players while failing to cover six of their past seven games. Ben Roethlisberger was sharp in his last game and has had extra rest with Pittsburgh playing last week on Thursday.
Most likely this is Eric Mangini's final game as head coach with the Browns. He's 2-9 in AFC North games. It remains to be seen how hard the Browns may play for Mangini given his likely lame duck status.
The Browns, for sure, need Hillis to produce. That's unlikely to happen. The Steelers have allowed only one 100-yard rusher in their last 49 games.
Hillis has had 324 touches this season. His previous pro high was 82. He's been held to 259 yards rushing on 65 carries, a 2.5 yard average per carry, in his last four games with no touchdowns. He's hardly practiced this week due to a rib and knee injury. There's a chance he won't even play.
There's a chance the Steelers also get back star safety Troy Polamalu for this game. He practiced on Friday for the first time in three weeks having been out with an ankle injury. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin may use him knowing the Steelers would be idle next week with a victory.
5♦ PITTSBURGH
Chuck O'Brien
Cincinnati (+9') at BALTIMORE
For Sunday’s first of two complimentary NFL selections – and note that I’ve hit 13 of my last 17 free plays, including four in a row in the NFL – take the Bengals plus the big points at Baltimore.
After a 10-game losing skid that completely derailed their season, the Bengals have bounced back with consecutive wins and covers, including last Sunday’s dominating 34-20 home upset of the Chargers as a nine-point underdog (a result made all the more impressive because San Diego needed the victory to keep its playoff hopes alive).
Call it a coincidence if you want, but I find it quite interesting that as soon as Cincinnati’s two diva receivers (Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens got hurt, Carson Palmer and the offense started to produce. After going 14-for-23 for 209 yards (and most importantly no INTs) in a 19-17 home win over Cleveland, Palmer last week had his biggest game in years, going 16-for-21 for 269 yards with four TDs and, again, no picks. This is the same guy who threw 18 INTs (and countless others that were dropped) in the season’s first 14 games.
Neither of Palmer’s head-cases will be on the field in this game, which probably once again will be for the best, as Cincinnati tries to exploit a vulnerable Baltimore pass defense. The Ravens have surrendered an average of 266 passing ypg the last three weeks against the Browns, Saints and Texans – three teams that out-passed Baltimore by a total of 363 yards. And it’s not like those were all “cheap” yards, as the Ravens won all three games but one in overtime, one by six points and last week’s 10-point win in Cleveland.
Indeed, the Ravens need to win this game to have a shot at overtaking the Steelers for the AFC North crown. However, for whatever reason, they’ve had their problems with Cincinnati in recent years, losing six of the last eight meetings (SU and ATS), including getting upset in each of the last three. And while Baltimore has won and covered three in a row, it hasn’t had a four-game SU or ATS winning streak all season.
The Chuckster likes the end-of-season heart the Bengals have shown the last two weeks, and if they can get up for a game against the Chargers, they’ll put their best foot forward against a division rival, especially since they know if they pull off another upset they’ll keep the Ravens from clinching a division title. Baltimore prevails 24-21, but Cincinnati stays inside the number throughout.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Stephen Nover
NY Giants (-4) at WASHINGTON
For my free pick, I'm taking New York at Washington. There's no question the Giants are vastly superior, something that was proven just four weeks ago when they won 31-7 at home for their fifth straight series victory (4-1 ATS). But today's spread is shorter than it should be due to the perception that the Redskins have gotten better and the Giants are a train wreck after blowing a key division game to the Eagles two weeks ago and then getting buried at Green Bay last Sunday.
Let's discuss the Redskins first. No, they are not better. They are a horrendous team with seven new defensive starters from opening week. It's not by chance Washington ranks last in total defense and 31st in pass defense.
The Redskins' secondary is decimated. They're yielding more than 393 yards per game. Only nine teams in the last 27 years have surrendered more.
The Giants, with tremendous offense balance, can take advantage of Washington's defensive woes. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are the second-best running back tandem in the NFL behind Kansas City's Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. They've rushed for a combined 1,987 yards and scored 16 touchdowns on the ground. Eli Manning, despite frequent interceptions, has thrown 30 TD passes this year.
Washington's run defense isn't much better than its pass defense giving up an average of 4.8 yards per rush. The Giants averaged 5.5 ypc in the season's first meeting and the Skins' defense has gotten even softer since then because of injuries.
The Giants aren't going to lie down in this matchup, not when they still have a shot at the playoffs. They have a late kickoff, same as Green Bay, so they'll be focused and primed for a strong effort.
The Redskins have been competitive the last two weeks against Dallas and Jacksonville even with Rex Grossman at quarterback. It's misleading, though. They trailed Dallas 27-7 in the third quarter before making it close against a bad Cowboys defense that was playing loose with a big lead.
The Redskins then upset a flat Jacksonville team missing its star playmaker, running back Maurice Jones-Drew.
Grossman will have a much harder time facing a New York defense that has the best front four in the NFL with 44 sacks.
3♦ NY GIANTS
Chris Jordan
Chicago (+9) at GREEN BAY
I certainly don't expect the Packers to fold against Chicago the same way they did in Week 3, and just hand over a win. But I also don't believe the line should be this high.
Sure, the Bears have already clinched a first-round bye and at least one home playoff game as the No. 2 seed in the NFC, and I know their only chance at the top seed in the playofs is if both the Saints and Falcons collapse - an unlikely scenario. However, these are still a pack of prideful Bears that want to stay hot heading into the postseason.
And while coach Lovie Smith will be looking to keep his team healthy, keep in mind the Bears have won seven of their past eight, and come in boasting a stop unit that is clicking at the right time.
Bottom line this is not just any game either.
One could be the best in the league, and the other the worst - this is still the NFL's oldest rivalry, and one of the most storied of all time.
Thus, I certainly don't expect the Bears to fold against Green Bay and just hand over a win.
Chicago comes in on ATS streaks of 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 on the road, 6-2 as an underdog and 5-2 against intradivisional foes.
Take the underdog in this one, way too many points.
2♦ CHICAGO
Chuck O'Brien
Carolina at ATLANTA (-14)
For Sunday’s second of two complimentary NFL selections – and note that I’ve hit 13 of my last 17 free plays, including four in a row in the NFL – take Atlanta minus the big points against the Panthers.
Looking for the Falcons to bounce back in a big way today after their eight-game SU and six-game ATS winning streaks were snapped in Monday’s heartbreaking 17-14 loss to the Saints. Despite the setback, Atlanta still controls its destiny for the NFC South title and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Thankfully, the Falcons drew the perfect opponent for their season finale, as Carolina has clearly thrown in the towel on the 2010 season.
After posting their second victory of the season two weeks ago – a 19-12 win over the pathetic Cardinals as a 2½-point chalk in their home finale – the Panthers went to Pittsburgh last Thursday and got drilled 27-3 as a 14-point underdog. Not only has Carolina (2-13) clinched the worst record in the NFL, but 11 of its 13 losses (including the last three in a row) were blowouts. The scores in those 11 defeats: 20-7, 20-7, 23-6, 20-10, 34-3, 31-16, 37-13, 31-14, 27-3 and 31-10.
That latter 21-point result was Atlanta’s win in Carolina three weeks ago (the third time in the last four meetings that the Falcons won and covered against the Falcons, with the average victory margin being 15.3 ppg).
The favorite is 8-1 in Carolina’s last nine games (with the Panthers going just 2-7 ATS over this span) and 7-2 ATS in Atlanta’s last nine games (the Falcons were the chalk in each of those contests). Additionally, the Falcons have covered in five of their last seven divisional games, 15 of 18 after a SU loss, nine straight after a game in which they scored 14 points or less and five straight against losing teams.
Because this game is so important to Atlanta and because the Falcons want to go into the postseason feeling good about themselves – while the Panthers just want to start their vacations – the Chuckster calls for 35-10 blowout win.
4♦ ATLANTA
Bobby Maxwell
St. Louis at SEATTLE (+3)
For my comp selection, it’ll be a perfect end to the NFC West season when the Seahawks beat the Rams today in Seattle and get into the playoffs with a 7-9 record and host a playoff game. While I suspect that’s what’ll happen tonight, I’m still going to grab the points with Seattle in case it comes down to a late field goal.
Seattle has lost three straight games and starting QB Matt Hasselbeck is a gametime decision. If he can’t go, it’ll be backup Charlie Whitehurst, who was 11-of-18 for 66 yards last week. He took all the reps in practice, so clearly the Seahawks are preparing to go without Hasselbeck.
Seattle has won nine of the last 10 meetings with the Rams, but did drop a 20-3 game in St. Louis back on October 3. The Seahawks had cashed in six straight against St. Louis before the October game, including a 28-0 beating in Seattle last year, easily cashing as a seven-point favorite.
The Rams have dropped two of three, including their last roadie at New Orleans on Dec. 12, falling 31-13 as 9 ½-point underdogs.
It’s been said all season that nobody deserves a playoff spot from this division and you can count on that continuing tonight. Seattle is 4-1 ATS the last four times the Rams have visited and you can bank on that trend continuing tonight. Grab the points with the Seahawks.
5♦ SEATTLE
Michael Cannon
San Diego (-3') at DENVER
Take the Chargers as the road chalk over the Broncos.
I know San Diego has been a monumental disappointment this season, but I can’t see them dropping this game today.
Denver has been terrible all season long. The Broncos defense ranks 30th overall and 24th against the pass, so you know Philip Rivers is bound to have a big day.
I also feel like the Chargers will want to salvage some pride here after being eliminated from playoff contention with last week’s upset loss to the Bengals.
I know the Broncos will be going with Tim Tebow again at quarterback and he brings some excitement to the Denver fan base, but he is still just a rookie and I’ll take my chances with Rivers and the Chargers at this price.
Lay the points with the Chargers for the win and cover.
SD Chargers
Karl Garrett
Gonzaga at WAKE FOREST (+9')
The days of Chris Paul, Tim Duncan, and such may be long gone, and the Demon Deacons are definitely in "rebuilding" mode, but the G-Man feels the schedule definitely favors them this Sunday afternoon.
Wake Forest did get romped at Richmond on the 29th for their third straight loss, and while the outright against a surging Gonzaga team probably won't materialize, consider this...Gonzaga just played a 10 pm eastern time game at home on New Year's Eve, as the Bulldogs romped Oklahoma State for their 5th straight win.
Mark Few's team then had to get on a plane on New Year's Day, and fly across the country in order to make it to Winston Salem in time for this 1 pm eastern time tip-off against the struggling Demon Deacons.
Wake Forest did beat Gonzaga outright by a basket last season in Spokane, so they do have a belief they can hang with this 'Zags team, especially on their home hardwood.
G-Man feels the long travel to the eastern time zone will have the Bulldogs just a little tired, and unable to pull away from the Deacons for the cover.
Take the points.
3♦ WAKE FOREST
Bobby Maxwel
Wisconsin at ILLINOIS (-3)
For my comp selection, Illinois snapped a two-game losing streak with an impressive 87-77 victory at Iowa on Wednesday, shooting the ball extremely well in the Big Ten opener. I’m counting on that continuing tonight at home when the Illini will take down the Badgers.
Illinois shot 66.7 percent from the floor against Iowa and hit a school-record 72.2 percent of their three-points, hitting 13-of-18. Guard Demetri McCamey had 20 points and 10 assists against Iowa and center Mike Tisdale has averaged 18.7 points per game against Wisconsin the last three times he’s seen the Badgers.
Wisconsin opened the Big Ten season with a 68-60 win over Minnesota, but the Badgers shot just 41.2 percent from the floor. While they have won seven in a row, most of the competition has been very below-par.
Illinois took two of three last year from the Badgers, including a 58-54 win in the Big Ten tourney. The Illini are 7-3 ATS after a spread-cover while Wisconsin is just 1-4 ATS on Sundays and 1-4 after a spread-cover. Lay the small points and go with Illinois at home in this one.
2♦ WISCONSIN
John Ryan
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys
5* graded play on the Dallas Cowboys as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles set to start at 4:15 PM ET. At the beginning of the season this was a game that had the potential to be a playoff game for both teams, but how things have changed so dramatically for both teams. This will still be a highly contested game and I do expect Dallas to get the win since Any Ried will be resting a high number of starters including Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will lose this game by fewer than three points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-8 ATS for 78% winners since 2005. Play on dogs or pick after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points with the game taking place in the second half of the season. Dallas fell behind to Arizona, but came on strong taking the lead in the fourth quarter only to surrender that lead to a late field goal. Arizona won the game 27-26 and were seven point dogs. Still, interim head coach Garrett has Dallas playing far better team football and the fact that they came back in the second half last week with a strong performance is more evidence that the players are responding well to Garretts style of coaching the team. Reports out of Dallas indicate that Garrett will be retained and this news will motivate the players even more in a show of approval. The Eagles are severely banged up on the defensive front and those starters will need rest as well and many of those players may not see any action. So, the Dallas running game will be able to torch the Eagle backups and enable either quarterback Kintna or McGee the luxury of play action. Take Dallas.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Browns are simply playing out the string. Pittsburgh has beaten them 13 of 14 times, covering the spread in 11 of those games, and simply needs to win here to clinch a first round playoff bye. Cleveland is 1-6 ATS its last seven games.
Play on: Pittsburgh
Frank Jordan
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Indianapolis Colts -9.5
Tennessee is all banged up and has nothing to play for, but this is still a divisional game in the AFC South and every game between those teams like most divisions is a dog fight. Look for Peyton Manning to fine tune his passing and develop some rapport with new receivers as he seems to get new ones every week.