Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 23,2011

Carlo Campanella

Jets vs. Steelers
Play: Under 39

These two squads met five weeks back, on December 19, in Pittsburgh with the Jets pulling the minor road upset, 22-17. Expect another low scoring game the second time around as the Steeler's held the Jets to just 276 offensive yards in the first match-up. Pittsburgh hosts a Jets squad playing their 3rd straight road game after beating Baltimore, 31-24, and Pittsburgh will clamp down on defense now that they know this Jets' offense, as we find them going "Under" the Total in 3 of 4 games this season after allowing 21 points or more this season.

Murray Hill Mike

Jets at Steelers
Play: Over

New York Jets at Pittsburgh - We have found TWO FANTASTIC SYSTEMS that support a play on the Over. Play the Over with any team against the total (PITTSBURGH) average rushing team (95-125 RY/G) against a good rushing defense (70-95 RY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. This system has cashed 73% (40-15) of the time since 1983. Play the Over with road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (NY JETS) off 1 or more straight overs against opponent off 2 or more consecutive overs. This system has cashed 73% (48-18) of the time over the last five seasons.

Tony George

Green Bay / Chicago Under 44

The last 6 in this series has went under and I expect an epic battle for most this game on Sunday from the frozen tundra of Soldier Field in Chicago. Clear and 20 degrees off the lake for this Sunday game is predicted, not ideal conditions and the Packers are not the Chicken Hawks on defense either. I expect both teams to establish the run and use play action pass to move the chains. The last game was a 13 point total in Green Bay and while I expect a higher scoring game than that, look for this one to stay under the total of 44, down a half point from the opener, and it may fall lower. Points will be at a premium and Green Bay will not enjoy another 40+ point day like last week in the dome in Atlanta.

SPORTS WAGERS

CHICAGO +3½ +100 over Green Bay

This week’s flavor of the week: The Green Bay Packers. Why not? After all, the Packers went into Philadelphia two weeks ago and knocked off the very trendy Eagles before stopping in Atlanta to pulverize the NFC’s top-seeded Falcons by a dominating 48-21. Green Bay’s defense has been strong all season and its level has risen in these playoffs. The Pack suffered many injuries during this campaign but adapted well and with some of their starters back in the line-up, the offence has become increasingly dangerous. The Packers are on a four-game winning streak and are a victory away from a trip to Dallas for this year’s Super Bowl. While most everyone is picking this sexy Green Bay squad to win on Sunday, the Chicago Bears will have something to say about that. This figures to be Green Bay’s toughest playoff test, yet the Packers are favored for the first time this post-season in all places, Soldier Field. Talk about an overreaction. All Chicago has done is win the NFC North, split the season series (which we’ll get to in a moment) and handily defeat a Seattle team that the defending champion Saints could not. This is a solid unit and one that knows this visitor all too well. Green Bay paid a visit here back in late September, as a 3-pt favorite, and departed as 20-17 losers. However, the game that intrigues us more was this year’s final game for both teams. The Packers were in a must-win situation to qualify for these playoffs. Despite the urgency, evidenced by Green Bay being an inflated 11-pt choice in that one, it took until the fourth quarter for the Packers to break a 3-3 deadlock before scoring a game-winning touchdown. The Bears were already locked in as a No. 2 seed and didn’t need to play their regular line-up. However, coach Lovie Smith decided to leave his starters in. Many were puzzled but some are thinking that Lovie was crazy like a fox. Not only did QB Jay Cutler and the rest of his Chicago mates get to witness the Packers at their desperation best, they also were presented an opportunity to play possum by not showing Green Bay their best hand. There is no question that Aaron Rodgers is in peak form right now. However, this is not a fast track like the Georgia Dome. Players alike will tell you that Soldier Field has one of the worst surfaces in this league. That suits the Bears just fine. Not only has Chicago covered six of its past seven on grass, the Bears have the more versatile backfield with Matt Forte (who had 151 combined yards in Week 17), complimented by Chester Taylor and a run defense that was ranked #2, only behind Pittsburgh’s stout group. This figures to be a battle and while Chicago, and particularly Cutler, can be erratic at times, we’re happy to be receiving points on this field with a strong defense and an opponent that matches up well with its familiar rival. Play: Chicago +3½ +100 (Risking 2 units).

PITTSBURGH –3½ over N.Y. Jets

Had this game been played before the Jets knocked off the heavily favored Patriots last week, this game would have had the Steelers favored by six or more. Thank you, Patriots. New York’s upset resulted in a reduced rate and one we intend to take full advantage of. While we can’t ignore what the Jets have done to get here, they have not seen a defense quite like this Steelers group. Both New England and Indianapolis were leaky throughout the season and to their credit, the Jets’ coaches found ways to control tempos and find enough holes to ultimately come out on top. Don’t expect the same on this day. Pittsburgh’s defense was nothing less than incredible this season. Most notably, the strongest part of their defense is what New York relies mainly upon, that being the ground game. The J-E-T-S love to run the ball and they did it efficiently, gaining an average of 148 yards-per-game, ranking them 4th overall. But if you can’t run, it forces you to pass and as we’ve said time and time again, we really don’t want to rely on Mark Sanchez’ arm to win us a game. Sanchez is a maintenance guy at this point of his young career, not a guy whose throwing ability can carry you to victory. Pittsburgh’s run stoppers allowed an average of slightly less than 63 yards per game, one of the lowest totals in league history. To illustrate, the next best unit did not allow two or three or ten yards less per game but a bulky 28 yards per. We saw Pittsburgh’s defense force its will on the Ravens just last week. Baltimore had less than 100 yards of offense heading into the fourth quarter, before finishing with a mere 153 for the game. To make this trip worse for the Jets, the Steelers have not forgotten New York’s recent visit here as the Jets left town with a 22-17 victory. However, in that game, Pittsburgh outgained its visitor by more than 100 yards and the Jets were aided by a rare 97-yard kick return by Brad Smith. In addition, the Steelers were without star safety Troy Polamalu and tight end Heath Miller, both of whom will play this weekend. As odd as it may sound, this game could actually be a letdown spot for the Jets. Nothing mattered more than defeating the Patriots in a playoff game. Now the New Yorkers are being asked to play its fifth road game in six weeks and they will have had one day’s less rest than their host. For the first time this post-season, the Jets will face an opponent that is better on both sides of the ball and the outcome will not be a favorable one. Play: Pittsburgh –3½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

Sports Insights

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

Green Bay pounded the Atlanta Falcons last week -- while the Bears beat a mediocre Seahawks squad. So who do we like? The Bears, of course! As we mentioned last week -- sports fans often focus on the very short-term -- especially in the playoffs. The Bears are only receiving 32% of the bets, even though they beat the Packers out for the NFC North title -- with a better record. The Bears are at home and receiving more than a field goal's worth of points. We like the live home dog -- and the idea of "selling" the Packers at this "high."

The line opened at Bears +3, but the constant betting on the hot Green Bay Packers has moved the line to Bears +3.5. Some public books have started to move the line to Bears +4. This is some solid line value right at the key number of 3.

The Bears earned home field advantage, but the fans are betting as if Green Bay is a far superior team. Chicago did "just okay" at home this year, going 5-3 -- but Green Bay was just 3-5 on the road. Several factors point to the Bears, as a "live" home dog. We'll "bet against the Public" and grab the line value.

Remember to shop around for the best line. Bodog currently has the the Bears at +4.

Chicago Bears +4

Stan Lisowski

Denver Nuggets

Indiana should have the Nuggets' attention tonight as they beat Denver in their first meeting by 31 points. The Pacers are off of a tough game in Portland last night and remain a straight up, play against squad away from home. Denver is over a 70%spread proposition as a host off of a prior home beat.

Tony George

Packers vs. Bears
Play: Under 42.5

The last 6 in this series has went under and I expect an epic battle for most this game on Sunday from the frozen tundra of Soldier Field in Chicago. Clear and 20 degrees off the lake for this Sunday game is predicted, not ideal conditions and the Packers are not the Chicken Hawks on defense either. I expect both teams to establish the run and use play action pass to move the chains. The last game was a 13 point total in Green Bay and while I expect a higher scoring game than that, look for this one to stay under the total of 44, down a half point from the opener, and it may fall lower. Points will be at a premium and Green Bay will not enjoy another 40+ point day like last week in the dome in Atalnta.

Charlie Scott

Wisconsin vs. Northwestern
Play: Wisconsin -1.5

I'm more than happy to take a quality Wisconsin team on the road laying -1.5. Northwestern is improved this season, but Wisconsin should be prepared as this is the same offense Wisconsin see's everyday in practice. Wisconsin has the better more physical players and better Coach. Northwestern is a quality undervalued team, just DON'T play them Today.

Rob Vinciletti

Miami Ohio vs. Kent State
Play: Miami Ohio +6

There are several solid angles that suggest an under here today. Kent is 4-13 to the under vs losing teams,10 of 12 under after scoring 60 or less and 6 of 8 under vs an opponent that scores 65 or less per game.. Miami Ohio has gone under 15 of 19 times as a road dog from +3.5 to +6. They only average 59 points per game on the road thus far this season. In the series 5 of the last 6 here have played under the total. Look for this one to go under as well.

Ben Burns

Atlanta Thrashers @ Tampa Bay Lightning
PICK: Atlanta Thrashers

We should get an extremely motivated effort from the visting Thrashers here. That's because they're looking to snap a seemingly endless (they last beat TB in October, 2009) losing streak against the Lightning, while also attempting to avoid getting swept in the 6-game season series.

With the Lightning having won all five of thise season's meetings, one would assume that they've "dominated." That hasn't been the case though. Far from it. In fact, the last three meeetings have ALL been tied after regulation, most recently a 3-2 TB "shootout" win a few nights ago, on 1/20. In other words, Atlanta could have easily won at least one of those games. (*The Thrashers lost in a shootout again yesterday.)

Including the victory on 1/20 and another one vs. Florida the following night, the Lightning have won three straight. They don't typically know what to do with "success" like that though. Indeed, they're a money-burning 50-63 (-29) the last 100+ times that they were on a winning streak of three or more games. That includes a 4-9 (-5.4) mark the past few seasons.

The Thrashers are a profitable 8-5 (+3.6) the last 13 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. Looking to avoid the sweep, I feel that they'll give us their absolute best effort here. If you're looking for a large underdog with a solid shot at scoring a major upset, consider Atlanta.

Teddy Covers

Fairfield @ Niagara
Pick: Fairfield -12.5

My clients and I cashed a bet supporting Fairfield at Rider earlier this week. This is nothing new for Stags supporters – Fairfield has been a pointspread machine on the highway all year long, with SU wins and covers at Siena, Canisius, Rider and Marist already in Metro Atlantic play. Fairfield is clearly the class of the MAAC conference this season. The Stags haven’t just been beating teams – they’ve been annihilating them, notching five double digit victories, including road wins by 17 and 15.

There’s absolutely no reason to expect anything different on Sunday against a bottom tier Niagara team in the midst of a truly woeful 2-hammered in a 22 point defeat; a game that was over by halftime. Again, this is nothing new for Niagara, with four losses by 17+ in their last eight ballgames. Head coach Joe Mihalich won’t have starting forward Kashief Edwards on the floor again today, and he’s got no defensive answer for the best point guard in the conference, Fairfield’s Derek Needham. Expect a one sided result. 2* Take Fairfield

Dave Price

1 Unit on South Florida Bulls +13

The Bulls are just 1-9 when playing away from home this season, but they have been very competitive, only losing these games by an average of 5.6 points. In fact, USF hasn't lost by more than 9 points away from home all season. The Bulls are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater, including a perfect 3-0 this season. As a 13-point dog against BYU, UConn and Cincy, the Bulls only lost by an average of 5.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Mountaineers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, and the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Iowa Hawkeyes -2

After 6 straight defeats, including a pounding at Ohio State last game, the Iowa Hawkeyes will be extremely focused on the task at hand when they take the floor at Carver-Hawkeye Arena Sunday afternoon. Indiana has lost 7 of its last 8 and it is 0-5 in true road games this season. Plus, Iowa swept the season series a year ago and has won 5 of its last 6 at home against the Hoosiers. In other words, the Hawks won't be lacking any confidence in their home gym this afternoon. They know this is an excellent opportunity to pick up their first Big Ten victory. Indiana is coming off back-to-back ATS wins, but that has not been the time to back the Hoosiers. Under coach Crean, Indiana is 0-10 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. It is losing by an average score of 75.3 to 64.4 in this situation. The Hoosiers are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games and only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games versus team with a winning percentage below .400. Look for Iowa to get the job done at home Sunday.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Wisconsin Badgers -1.5

Northwestern is a good ball club, but it is yet to record any resume-building wins. The Wildcats have already lost to Michigan State twice, Purdue and Illinois, and I expect Wisconsin to be too much as well. The Badgers swept the season series last year and have won 7 of the last 8 in this matchup. Plus, the Wildcats have been a poor investment as an underdog. They are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog and 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog overall. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. The Badgers, meanwhile, are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less and 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite. Bet the Badgers.