JIM FEIST
PACERS / NUGGETS
TAKE OVER
Don't be looking for any mercy tonight from the host Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center. This has been a game the Nuggets likely had circled on their calendar for some time. Back in November the Nuggets got an old fashioned butt whippin' at the hands of the Pacers at the Conseco Fieldhouse, 144-113. And if losing by 31-points wasn't bad enough, the Pacers shot 65% from the field and scored 54-points in the third quarter (missing just one shot in the quarter). So I am not looking for George Karl to be pulling any starters from this game if it gets out of hand early. The Nuggets will have payback on their minds tonight and they catch the Pacers in a back-to-back spot (having played at Portland on Saturday night). The Pacers are 0-4 ATS their last four road games of a back-to-back situation. This one could get ugly for the visitors, but I'm just going OVER and looking for Denver to have a little extra incentive to run up some numbers.
SPORTS WAGERS
NORTHWESTERN +1.12 over Wisconsin
The Wildcats have yet to beat a top-25 team but they’ve been close twice against Michigan St. and the other two were both on the road. The biggest problem for Northwestern has been rebounding or lack thereof but the Badgers aren’t much better on the boards and thus, this is the Wildcats best chance so far of beating a ranked team. The Wildcats are also a very impressive 9-1 at home while the Badgers have just one road win in four attempts and that’s significant. John Shurna, Michael Thompson and Drew Crawford make up one of the most lethal trios in the nation for the Wildcats and nobody has been able to stop them so far. Certainly for the Badgers on the road it’s a daunting task and one they’re unlikely to rise to the occasion for. This is a classic case of a ranked team spotting points on the road against an unranked opponent that usually doesn’t turn out well. The Wildcats aren’t ranked but they’re as good as many ranked teams and could find themselves in the top-25 at some point this season. We’d even go as far as saying that their chances of winning today are better than the Badgers and thus, we’ll play the home side on the money line. Play: Northwestern +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +109 over NEW JERSEY
The Devils are hot and ran their unbeaten streak to six games yesterday with a win in Philadelphia. That win along with the unbeaten streak has the Devils overvalued here. New Jersey only managed 22 shots on net yesterday and in its previous 2-0 win against the Penguins they managed just 20 shots. Now the Devils will play their third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-back matinees. They’ll host this one and with two NFL playoff games and with a huge lack of fan interest, expect one of the smallest crowds ever in New Jersey. The Panthers are not a popular team among the betting public and with three losses in a row they’re not going to attract much attention today. However, a close look reveals that all three losses came in OT and thus, that could just as easily be three wins in a row. Fact is, the Panthers have picked up points in six straight games and they have a huge edge in net this afternoon with Scott Clemmenson against Marty Brodeur. Florida has been home for 15 straight days covering six games and that’s too long for an NHL club. They embark on a six-game road trip beginning here and they’ll be raring to go in an attempt to get off to a good start. We’re very likely to get the much more motivated squad here in a favorable spot against a team that is a huge risk as the chalk. Play: Florida +109 (Risking 2 units).
Spartan
PIT / NYJ Under 38.5
This has all the makings of a NFL version of wrestlings old fashioned cage matches. These two teams are going to be like a pair of full grown bull moose's squaring off over a nice looking cow. The total looks very tempting to jump on the over but frankly guys I am just not seeing it. For that to occur there will have to be points scored off turnovers or special teams. I doubt either will be able to get much traction with their running attacks as well. I can see a 20-14 final here as the most likely scenario. Those who love old school football will be in their element with this one, could be an instant classic.
Brent Brooks
Central Mich. +2.5
With or without Jalin Thomas, the Chips are a better team than EMU. While they've had their struggles on the road so far this year, their superior talent should guide them through to a win in this one. Trey Zeigler is coming off a great game - on both ends of the floor. Stepping up against NIU at both ends was Andre Coimbra. The key here against EMU is simple - bottle up Bowdry and force Eastern's guards to beat you. They won't.
EZWINNERS
NC State Wolfpack -2
The Wolfpack have lost three straight games with the first two coming on the road and the last a home loss to Duke, but I expect them to get back on track in this game against Miami. NC State head coach Sidney Lowe is expecting a better effort on the defensive end of the floor and I believe he will get one against the Hurricanes. Miami center Reggie Johnson has a tendency to get into foul trouble and I look for the Pack to clamp down on Miami guard Malcolm Grant to keep his three point shooting in check. In their first four conference games, the Hurricanes have shot 38.4 percent from the field and I expect that poor shooting to continue. The Pack's forward combination of senior Tracy Smith and freshman C.J. Leslie should do work in the paint which will open up some good looks from three point land for N.C. State guard Scott Wood. The Wolfpack are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games following a double digit loss at home. Lay the points.
Larry Ness
Valparaiso -9
Cleveland St is 18-3, owners of the best overall record of any school in the Horizon League. Then of course there is Butler, which came within a half-court 'Hail Mary' of upsetting Duke in last year's national champion game, sitting at 14-6. However, neither of those schools sit atop the Horizon League on the morning of another NFL Championship Sunday. Instead, it's Valparaiso, of Homer and Bryce Drew fame. Homer is still coaching (his 34th overall year, including his 23rd at Valpo) and his current team is 15-5 overall, including 7-1 in league play (CSU is 7-2 and Butler, 6-2). The Crusaders are relying on transfers the last few years in an effort to keep up with Butler (hasn't worked up to this point) but two transfers, now in the second seasons with the Crusaders, are leading the way to this year's success (so far). Guard Wood began at Southern Illinois and averages 16.1-4.5-3.6 while the 6-7 Johnson started at Iowa St and is averaging 15.7 PPG and 4.5 RPG. Throw in some foreign players, Broekhoff (9.6-4.1), a 6-6 forward from Australia, and the 6-8 Van Wijk (6.1-2.7) from the Netherlands, and Drew has a 'melting pot,' as well as a first-place team. Green Bay has an excellent senior guard duo in Fletcher (16.8) and Perine (12.1), who get solid help from junior Baker (8.2-4.8). Up front, two freshman, the 7-0 Brown (9.1-5.3) and the 6-6 Turner (6.1-5.3) are joined by 6-5 swingman Williams (7.5-5.4). Valpo's 9-1 SU (8-2 ATS) its last 10 games, losing only at Butler (Jan 1) during that time. The visiting team in this series won each time in last year's two meetings but expect the Crusaders, 7-1 SU (5-1 ATS) at home this season, to reverse that trend this afternoon. Lay the points with the home team.
Karl Garrett
Green Bay at CHICAGO
Kinda surprised the total for this game is as high as it is, as both regular season meeting this year stayed under the posted total.
In fact, the last 6 season series meetings between these NFC North rivals have held low.
Their is potential for points for sure, as Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler have been dealing the hot hands of late, but here you have 2 of the more rugged defenses in the league doing battle on a very choppy field.
I think the yards, and the points are going to be hard to come by in this game, and I see a low-scoring affair from start to finish.
As for my winning side, that is my premium pick 40 Dimer, but as for my winning total, I am going under in the NFC Championship game.
4♦ UNDER
Scott Delaney
Green Bay at CHICAGO
Everyone I know, read, see and hear has the Under in this contest. That tells me one thing - this game could be Over by halftime.
Though there are storylines about Brian Urlacher and his defensive crew, and how Green Bay's defensive front is going to challenge Chicago's offensive line the entire game. But I am stuck on the bigger storylines that are wondering who is going to stop quarterbacks Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers.
I've heard about the field conditions - not buying it.
This is the NFC championship, and those two field generals are going to be at their best today, in what should be a shootout that comes down to the end.
Whether it's Cutler to Johnny Knox, or Rodgers to one of the receivers in his trio, this game will see some offensive fireworks.
Think about this... for as much as everyone is talking about a defensive battle on this horrible turf, why is the total at 43? So the oddsmakers can get you to play the under? A trap indeed.
This one soars.
2♦ OVER
Derek Mancini
Green Bay (-3') at CHICAGO
Timing is everything. The Bears may have had a chance had they caught the Packers at a different time, but right now there's no hotter team, or hotter QB than the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. Not only has he destroyed secondaries this postseason, but he destroyed the Bears secondary specifically in both games he saw them, completing 72% of his passes. Yes, he had a modest 2 TD to 2 INT ratio, but after lighting up the Eagles and Falcons, do you really believe the Bears will stop him?
I have a real problem with how the Bears got here, I'm sorry but beating the Seahawks is nothing to write home about. That win skewed the perception of Chicago backers into thinking they're playing well, when in truth, their offense has been extremely inconsistent. We all know what happens to Cutler when he's under pressure, and we all know the the Packers excel at attacking the quarterback (led NFC in sacks, and have a postseason best 11 thus far). And I know Bears-backers are touting Forte, but I'm not convinced. He's a glorifyed receivers coming out of the backfield, disappearing in far too many games for me to trust.
Bottom line, lay the points with Green Bay, as the oddsmakers tried their best to entice action on Chiago with this line, but they couldn't do it. I expect a big game from both QBs, but in the end, good ol' Jay Cutler will lob an interception or two that will cost them the game. He's done it so many times before I can't believe anyone (even Bears fans) will be surprised. Small play on the red-hot Packers over the Bears Sunday.
1♦ GREEN BAY
Craig Davis
NY Jets at PITTSBURGH (-3')
As for today's free play, I like the Jets/Steelers under the total. Vegas isn't stupid, they know these two teams aren't built around their defense. These two are going to be so afraid to make a single mistake that i can't seen either one of them taking a big chance.
Advantage under.
After already seeing each other once this season, both defenses have been studied the other's offense in an attempt to get the upper hand.
Both teams want to run the ball, which takes up a lot of clock in a game like that.
3♦ UNDER
Chuck O'Brien
N.Y. Jets at PITTSBURGH
Forget about Jets-Steelers, and forget about the handful of basketball contests on today’ card. Only one game matters Sunday and it’s Packers vs. Bears, as I bank 75 Dimes on this contest and pad a bankroll that sits at 193 Dimes over the past 17 days!
For Sunday’s complimentary selection, take the Jets-Steelers playoff game to stay UNDER the total.
When these teams met back on Dec. 19, New York prevailed 22-17 and the game barely nudged over the 36-point total. But the only reason that happened was because the Jets opened the game with a kickoff return for a touchdown, then got a fluke safety in the fourth quarter. Take those two plays away and it’s a 17-13 Steelers win.
Going all the way back to 1989, these teams have met 10 times and the highest-scoring game of the bunch was last month’s 22-17 contest. The other nine games ended in the following final scores: 19-16 (overtime), 20-17 (overtime), 17-6, 6-0, 18-7, 20-3, 27-10, 24-7 and 13-0. Talk about a strong trend!
Pittsburgh has put up 27, 41 and 31 points in the last three games, but the first two were against the Panthers and Browns (two terrible defensive squads), while last week’s 31-24 win over the Ravens was loaded with bizarre turnovers that set up defensive scores or short fields for the offenses.
Similarly, the Jets’ 28-21 final score at New England last week was misleading, as New York scored one touchdown after the Patriots failed on a head-scratching fake punt attempt deep in their own territory late in the second quarter. Then New York added the game-clinching touchdown after returning an onside kick deep into Patriots territory (after which New England got a meaningless touchdown to push the game over the total). Anyway, with less than two minutes to play, that was a 21-11 contest.
If you take away New England’s final touchdown, New York has held four of its last five opponents to point totals of 10 (Dolphins), 17 (Steelers), 7 (Bills), 16 (Colts) and 14 (Patriots). Including the playoffs, they’re giving up just 18.9 points and 297 yards per game this season.
Meanwhile, even with last week’s 31-24 win over Baltimore (and the defense was hardly responsible for the bulk of the 24 points the Ravens scored; in fact, Baltimore had just 126 total yards), the Steelers are surrendering just 15.1 points and 268 total yards per game (including a league-leading 61.1 rushing ypg).
In the end, don’t expect either Jets coach Rex Ryan or Steelers coach Mike Tomlin to take any chances offensively – especially in the first half – preferring to lean on their stout defenses and play the field-position game. When it’s over, we’ll be looking at a 14-10, 13-10, 17-14 type of final score, keeping this one well UNDER the total.
5♦ UNDER
Joel Tyson
N.Y. Jets at PITTSBURGH
Your free play is the total in the AFC Title Game, as I like the Jets and Steelers to hold under the posted total.
Low total here, and with good reason, as by night fall expects the temperatures to be quite chilly indeed. Throw in the fact that field goals will not be an automatic, and you will see both teams trying to get the football into the endzone instead of trying to kick through the cold night air at Heinz Field.
Throw out the 21 points the Steelers allowed last weekend to the Ravens, and you see a team that has allowed 16 points or less in 6 of their final 7 regular season games. The lone 22 point surrender came against the Jets on December 19th. I have to believe the screws on defense will be tightened by Dick LeBeau.
On the other side, Rex Ryan's team allowed 17 points or less in 4 of their final 6 regular season games.
I expect this game to be played close to the vest, with not too many points being scored.
Gonna go under the total for your comp play winner this Sunday night in the Steel City.
2♦ UNDER
Chris Jordan
Indiana at DENVER (-8')
The losing streak is now at four.
And with Indiana having to come into the Mile High City after playing in Portland last night, I don't believe there's anything keeping the Pacers from stretching their skid to five games with a destructive loss to the Nuggets.
Indiana has to be absolutely deflated, and will want nothing more than to go home at this point, after watching Nicolas Batum drain four consecutive treys early in the fourth quarter to lead the Trail Blazers, who erased a 16-point deficit to beat Indiana 97-92 last night.
And that would be an injury-ravaged Blazers team that knocked off the Pacers for a fifth consecutive time.
How this team will be able to respond by taking on a fired up Nuggets team that will be out to avenge Friday's loss to the Lakers, not to mention gain revenge from a 144-113 loss to Indiana back on Nov. 9 is beyond me.
I'll lay the chalk with Denver tonight, as it rolls to a huge win and cover.
3♦ NUGGETS
Derek Mancini
Indiana at DENVER (-8')
Tricky line. Given the last time these two teams met the Pacers won 144-113, it's seems a little fishy that Denver is favored by so much here. The guys in Vegas aren't stupid, they know all about their last meeting and deliberately set this line to entice action on Indiana. Sorry, but I for one am not taking the bait.
So why Denver? Coming off a tough loss to the Lakers, I'm looking for a big bounce back tonight at the Pepsi Center. They had won 4 straight at home SUATS before the Lakers loss, and I see no reason why they can't get back on track (in a big way) against this Indiana team.
The key here is the Pacers absolute lack of offense on the road. They average just 95 ppg on 42% shooting. Despite that last meeting, the fact is the Pacers offense is average on its best day. With Granger being the only real threat, the Nuggets defense, which is decent at home, should clamp down for the most part. Sorry Pacers-backers, but Collison is not going to have 29 points on a ridiculous 12 of 14 shooting this time around.
Finally, the fact Indiana is just 4-9 ATS in their L13 meetings against Denver is worth note. Albeit the Pacers have covered the last two, this line is screaming for Indiana action, and therefore, we'll go the other way. Long story short, look for Anthony and the deep Nuggets bench to get it done tonight at home. Lay it with Denver over Indiana Sunday.
2♦ DENVER
Bobby Maxwell
Wisconsin (-1') at NORTHWESTERN
For my Comp winner, Wisconsin has been playing some good basketball lately, having won three of four and two straight, and this team is too good to continue its struggles on the road. I’m going to lay the small chalk with them today at Northwestern in a Big Ten matchup.
The Badgers struggled in the first half against Indiana but rallied in the second period for a 69-60 win. Jordan Taylor had 28 points and he’s averaged 22 points per game in his last six and topped 20 points in four straight games.
Wisconsin has beaten Northwestern two straight times and the Badgers are 7-1 in the last eight in this series, including 3-1 on the Wildcats’ home court. Wisconsin gives up just 56.6 points per game and limits the opposition to 39.9 percent shooting.
The Badgers are on ATS surges of 7-3 in Big Ten action, 5-2 on the road, 6-2 against teams with winning records and 4-1 on the road against teams with winning home marks.
The road team has cashed in five of the last seven meetings between these two and the chalk is 4-1 ATS in the last five. Wisconsin is the play today.
4♦ WISCONSIN
Stephen Nover
Wisconsin at NORTHWESTERN
For your free pick, let's head to the Big Ten game between Northwestern and Wisconsin.
Northwestern very much would like to erase the stigma of being the only school from a power conference never to have earned a Big Dance bid.
The Wildcats are good this season, a respectable 13-5 with an 8-4 ATS mark in their lined games. They're also 4-1 ATS at home.
Northwestern has played a difficult Big 10 schedule having already met Purdue, Illinois and Michigan State. The Wildcats lost to the Spartans by three at home and by four on the road in overtime. Michigan State defeated Wisconsin by three at home.
The Wildcats are an explosive team with three players (John Shurna, Michael Thompson and Drew Crawford) averaging over 13 points. Northwestern is among the nation's best in assists and assists-to-turnover ratio. This a key when going against a strong defensive team such as Wisconsin.
The Wildcats have taken care of business when stepping down in class in the Big Ten beating Michigan, 74-60, Iowa, 90-71, and Indiana, 93-81, a team Wisconsin managed to only beat 69-60 at home this past Thursday.
Yes, Wisconsin is a big upgrade on those schools. But the Badgers are 0-2 in Big Ten road action having lost to Michigan State and Illinois. The Badgers play great defense, but average less than 70 points a game.
The Badgers will have to contend with Shurna, who ranks third in Big Ten scoring averaging 19.5 points per game. Shurna is getting better after suffering a high ankle sprain on Dec. 23. The Wildcats held him out as a precautionary measure in their 98-55 victory against Southern Illinois-Edwardsville on Thursday night. Shurna will be rested and ready to go against Wisconsin.
1♦ NORTHWESTERN
Michael Cannon
Miami-OH (+6) at KENT STATE
Take the points with Miami (OH) on the road over Kent State.
The prospect of playing on the road here shouldn’t intimidate the RedHawks one bit. They played a murderous non-conference schedule against the likes of Ohio State, Duke, Kansas and San Diego State. On top of that they also played Cincinnati.
Miami is a veteran team and has a talented frontcourt with Julian Mavunga, Antonio Ballard and Nick Winbush. Those three combine to average 39 points per game and should have successs against Kent State.
The better team is getting the points here.
Take Miami as the road underdog.
3♦ MIAMI (OH)
VEGAS EXPERTS
Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets
Due to the Pacers shooting the lights out in an earlier 144-113 final between the teams this season, we feel there is tremendous value on the Under tonight. In fact, Indiana has gone 27-13 Under in all games this season, including 8-1 on the second night of back to backs. Denver is 13-3 Under when playing with revenge.
Play on: Under
James Patrick Sports
Southern Illinois vs. Illinois State
Since seriously-regressing NIU (0-8 in MVC) has been clearly unable to supplant its (3) top graduated scorers instrumental in posting (3) straight 20+ win campaigns, will suggest SIU contingent back to full strength with return of 6-9 soph C Gene Teague (missed 5 games), who played only (10) minutes due to a lingering ankle injury in earlier (63-59) win vs. the Redbirds. Salukis' 6-8 sr. F Carlton Fay licking his chops after pouring in (33) pts. in first meeting, so look for offensively-feckless ISU (miserable 29% from arc) to continue its money-burning ways (5-12-1 vs. spread TY). Big Game James Patrick's complimetary selection in NCAA College Basketball action is Southern Illinois Salukis.
Craig Trapp
Indiana Pacers vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Indiana Pacers
Pacers are 3-1 ATS L4 road game including two really close games at Portland and Golden State. On the other side this Denver team looked like a divided team in the really one sided loss to the Lakers at home on FRI. The trade talks and constant booing seems to have finally got to Anthony. Will take the Pacers as they try and pull off a big road upset.
Jack Jones
West Virginia -12.5
West Virginia (12-5, 3-2) knocked off then-No. 13 Georgetown on Jan. 8 and then-No. 8 Purdue last Sunday to grab its current No. 21 spot in the poll. In their first game as a ranked team Wednesday night, the Mountaineers shot a season-low 33.3 percent and fell 75-71 to Marshall in the annual Capital Classic in Charleston, WV. After such a big letdown against a team they should have dominated, the Mountaineers return home tonight very hungry and motivated for a victory. They host the South Florida Bulls who are just 7-13 on the season and a bottom feeder in the Big East.
South Florida is 1-9 on the road this season where they are scoring just 59.7 PPG on 40.9% shooting. West Virginia is 6-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, scoring 79.0 PPG on 47.9% shooting. The Mountaineers are outscoring their opponents by 16.0 PPG at home this year. WVU is 8-1 ATS versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game over the last 3 seasons. They are winning against these slow-down teams by an average of 20.1 PPG. The Mountaineers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Take West Virginia Sunday.
Info Plays
3* Packers/Bears OVER 42
Reasons why Packers/Bears will go over:
1) Play over - any team against the total - in the conference championship game, as its 28-6 over the last 10 seasons.
2) Play over - any team against the total (Bears) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games against opponent after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, as its 34-8 over the last 5 seasons.
3) The Packers are 19-8 OVER in road games off a road win since 1992.
Wunderdog Sports
Sabres vs. Islanders
Play: Under 5.5
Buffalo gives up 3.0 goals per game while the Islanders allow 3.3 per game. How can this game go UNDER the total? Neither of these offenses are very good. Rick Dipietro has been playing very well of late, having saved 112 of 119 shots in his last four games. Ryan Miller has also done a decent job for Buffalo. I expect an inspired effort from the Sabres defense here. They gave up 5 goals the last time these teams met in a blowout loss. This team is 12-3 to the UNDER on the road revenging a loss by 2+ goals the past two seasons. They are also a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER the past two seasons on the road revenging a loss in which they gave up 5+ goals. I like this game to go UNDER the total.