DAVE COKIN
CARDINALS AT PANTHERS
PLAY: CARDINALS +3
There’s not going to be a great deal of analysis here. I’m trusting the numbers as the Cardinals and Panthers square off for the NFC title.
I still have Arizona on top of my power ratings chart. It’s definitely not a runaway off any kind, but Arizona vs. Carolina on a neutral field produces a Cardinals -1.5 on my work. Obviously, this game is not on neutral field. But I also am not rewarding the Panthers any more than a field goal for getting to play this on their home field.
Clearly, my number and the actual betting line aren’t differing greatly. But at this time of year, if they did, then I think it would be fair to conclude that there’s something amiss with my numbers. So this is simply about garnering an edge.
What makes this a little more appetizing is the game being lined at -3, which is a key NFL number, and the fact that as I’m writing this, I’m able to get the Cardinals at even money to boot.
This is pretty similar to yesterday’s play on the Steelers, in that it’s far more value based than a selection being made on opinion. To be honest, I wasn’t very impressed with Arizona on Saturday and was far more wowed by that dynamic first half performance by the Panthers on Sunday.
This game will get dissected in depth throughout the week by all sports media, be it print or broadcast. There will be compelling cases made for each side. I’ll simply stick with the math that tells me the Cardinals +3 at even money are worth backing, and that’s my play.
Xander Locke
Cardinals vs. Panthers
Play: Under 47
Carolina had and easy time scoring vs a wore out Seattle team. It's not going to be that easy to score vs a much better Arizona defense. The Cardinals also had an easy game vs a mediocre Packer team. They were lucky to come out with a win. Now Arizona will face a very tough Carolina defense that's ranked 5th in the NFL in points allowed at 19.3 per game. This total stays under 40 points.
Marc Lawrence
Cardinals vs. Panthers
Play: Under 48
Edges - Panthers: 3-5 UNDER as a host in this series. Cardinals 1-6 UNDER last seven overall games. With Bruce Arians 4-14 UNDER in games in which his team is installed as a dog of less than 7 points, we recommend a 1* play on the UNDER in this game.
Heath Mac
Cardinals vs. Panthers
Play: Over 47½
We can’t wait for this game. Though both teams are very solid on defense, ranking 6th and 7th for points allowed per game, we also see the number 1 and number 2 offenses do battle with both teams putting up around 31 ppg and 400 ypg. Both quarterbacks have had MVP worth seasons and it seems a bit of a shame that only one of these sides will play in the superbowl as both have had fantastic seasons. Both sides have had a poor loss in their last few games, albeit in meaningless games. However if you take out that game for each side, Carolina have put up 31, 38, 38 & 38 points in their last 4 games. The fact that Carolina put up 31 points in a half against the best secondary in the NFL last week shows how potent their offense can be. Arizona have put up 26, 38, 40 & 23 points in their last 4 games.
As we mentioned, both teams have solid secondarys that have done their job well all season. The Panthers are 3rd in the league at stopping the ground game while the Cards rank 4th. However the Panthers rank just 21st in the air at home, allowing 241.5 ypg while the Cards have also struggled, ranking in 18th and allowing 251.8 ypg on the road. With two dangerous quarterbacks, we should see some completions and plenty of 1st downs. This game has the sense of a shoot out and we think it goes OVER.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games on the road. The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 8 games. The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games at home.
AC Dinero
Patriots vs. Broncos
Play: Under 44.5
When looking at totals, the key things are the running game (controls clock), big plays in the passing game (quick scores), and 3rd down (keeping drives alive). Most of these favor the under. NE isn't great running the ball, and Denver is good at stopping it, so they will have to pass, which they do very well. That's it for the bad news on the under. Both teams are playing strong defense, especially Denver. Both defend 3rd down well, plus the Broncos struggle converting. The Denver passing game downfield is almost nonexistent. The initial reaction to the QB's is to go over, but I see this as defensive game, especially with the stakes involved.
Vernon Croy
New England / Denver Over 44
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems, and I have this game flying over the posted total Sunday. We have arguably two of the best NFL quarterbacks to ever play the game and it will be a very tough task for ay defense to slow them down Sunday. Manning has a full game under his belt, so you can expect him to be much better this week, and Brady can pick apart any defense, yes even the Broncos. The O/U is 4-0 for the Patriots in their last four playoff games, and the O/U is 5-1 for the Patriots in their last 6 road games when playing a team with a winning record at home. The O/U is 34-15 for the Broncos in their last 49 home games when playing a team that has a winning record, and the O/U is 6-1 in the last 7 games played between these two teams. The Broncos defense just gave up 311 passing yards to an injured Roethlisberger, so what will happen against a healthy Patriots team. The Patriots have given up 20 points in three consecutive games, and now they face the best offense yet at this point in the year.
Raphael Esparza
Arizona / Carolina Over 23.5 1st Half
We all know that the Carolina Panthers scored 31 points in the first half last week at home against Seattle, and I don't see that happening but I do see points being scored in this game. Arizona can score points quickly as well and their last road game the Cardinals scored 40 points against the Eagles. Both QB's will establish the run early, but I also see both QB's throwing the ball early as well and I see more scoring in the first half of this game then the second half. Offensive game first then both D's come out at halftime. Should be an exciting game from kickoff and we should see some early fireworks in the first two quarters.
Allen Eastman
Arizona / Carolina Over 47.5
All of the talk has been about Carolina's defense this year. But the Panthers offense is one of the highest scoring in football, and they just tallied 31 points against Seattle last week in the first half alone. The Panthers have gone 'over' in seven of their last 10 games. Arizona also has an explosive offense, and they are No. 2 in the NFL with an average of 30.6 points per game. The Cardinals were able to get the jitters out last week in their win over Green Bay. I expect them to open up the offense against Carolina, and that should mean plenty of scoring. The 'over' is 5-2 in Arizona's last seven playoff games and the 'over' is 12-3 in Carolina's last 15 games against teams from the NFC. The 'over' is 10-4 in Carolina's last 14 playoff games and this should be a shootout.
Wunderdog
New England @ Denver
Pick: Over 44.5
After starting the season 10-0, the Patriots suffered some injuries, especially to their offense. The results was a 10-0 team that averaged 32.3 points per game going to a 3-4 team over their last seven games averaging just 24.1 ppg. Things started to look better last week when Julian Edelman returned, perhaps the most integral part of their offense (other than Tom Brady). The Patriots cashed in against a tough Kansas City defense that had allowed 12.5 ppg during an 11-game winning streak. New England more than doubled what the Chiefs opponents output had averaged during the streak, scoring 27 points. Against a somewhat overrated Broncos defense, these Patriots should score. Denver will go with Peyton Manning once again here. The Broncos offense has become a bit steadier over the last month, scoring 20+ in each of their last four games and have put points on the board in 10 of their last 11 quarters of play. This change occurred after coming up empty in two quarters of each game in their three previous games. Denver averaged 22 ppg in the 11 games that Manning start to finish. He is certainly not the same Peyton Manning of old, but he'll be able to find the end zone against a Pats defense that is the worst of the four teams remaining. New England has some lofty numbers supporting the OVER in this game. They are 39-16 to the OVER in their last 55 vs. a winning team including 13-5 to the OVER since last season. They are also 57-27 to the OVER in their last 84 in conference play and 10-2 OVER the past two seasons in expected close games (line of -3 to +3). The Pats are also 39-16 to the OVER when following a spread win. In the Bill Belichick era, New England is 73-57 OVER in road gamesand 10-1 OVER revenging a road upset loss. Denver is 34-15 to the OVER in their last 49 vs. a winning team, and the OVER has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between these two.
Randall the Handle
Patriots (13-4) at Broncos (13-4)
Many thought that the streaking Chiefs would topple these Patriots a week ago. To that we say, “Shame, shame, your bookmaker knows your name.”
Now the Pats get a tougher assignment.
Or is it?
No one seems quite sure if the Broncos are better off at quarterback with Brock Osweiler or Peyton Manning. We don’t think it matters.
While it will be Peyton under centre for Denver, the bigger concern is stopping Tom Brady and his full complement of receivers.
Denver’s pedestrian offence relies on its defenders to keep things close and even though that tactic worked against a hobbled Pittsburgh squad last weekend, it may not be effective here.
Having Julian Edelman back on the field after missing eight weeks changes the dynamics of New England’s offence dramatically. Brady was able to complete 27-of-41 passes in the win over K.C. last week, the most yardage he has thrown for since an early December loss to the Eagles.
Edelman was put to work quickly and often in his return, catching 10 balls on 16 passes aimed his way for 100 yards of offence. Having to account for the slot receiver clearly makes TE Rob Gronkowski all the more dangerous as Gronk caught seven passes for 83 yards and two touchdowns.
It won’t help Denver’s cause that CB Chris Harris is nursing a bad shoulder. Harris would normally be assigned to blanket Edelman, but at less than 100%, those duties could be allocated elsewhere and that alters Denver’s defensive schemes. Not exactly the coaching staff you want to be experimenting against.
The Broncos also lost safety Omar Bolden a week ago and suddenly, the Denver secondary has become shallow. Despite the Broncos advancing, Ben Roethlisberger was still able to pass for 339 yards last week even with top WR Antonio Brown on the sidelines.
Of course, being asked to win in Denver is no easy task. However, this will be the Patriots’ second trip here this season after a Nov. 29 overtime loss that was played in a snowstorm for much of the day at Mile High. Brady and coach Bill Belichick have a knack for exacting revenge in these situations.
The Pats blew a 21-7 lead in that one before succumbing in the extra frame in a game that New England was without Edelman, receiver Danny Amendola and LB Jamie Collins in addition to losing Gronkowski and LB Dont’a Hightower by halftime. More than one errant holding call on the Pats also aided the host’s victory.
Back to Manning. With such a great career, it almost hurts to say it, but while the football acumen remains, the physical attributes have faded noticeably. Last week’s home win versus Pittsburgh produced just 222 yards with no touchdowns against the Steelers’ 30th-ranked pass defence.
Brady-Manning XVII could be the final chapter in what has been one of the great quarterback rivalries of this generation. But as it has happened more often than not, Brady’s Patriots will be heading to the Super Bowl while Manning’s team will be watching them.
TAKING: PATRIOTS –3
Cardinals (14-3) at Panthers (16-1)
There will be no shortage of praise leading up to and during this one for Panthers QB Cam Newton.
Likely to be this year’s MVP, Newton possesses everything you want in a franchise quarterback including the maturity that has unfolded in front of our eyes.
Lacking star offensive players at the skill positions, Newton has made the most of the talent around him to go along with his own ability to chew up yards. As a result, the Panthers were able to lead the league in scoring, averaging 31.3 points per game.
Complementing the offence is a staunch defence that features four defenders that are bound for the Pro Bowl.
At 16-1 to this point, accolades for Carolina are not hard to come by. Now at home, where the Panthers have won 12 straight, they are only being asked to spot a mere field goal to these Cardinals. It may seem like a short price to some but in reality, very little separates these two. In fact, a sound argument could be made that Arizona is the superior team.
Off the top of your head, name the two weakest divisions in football this year.
If you said, the NFC East and the AFC South not only would you be correct, you’d also have named the two divisions that the Panthers were fortunate enough to draw this season outside of their own. Both of those wretched groups had just one winning team atop its respective division, each one game above .500 at 9-7. Both Houston and Washington were disposed of handily in each of their lone playoff game.
Sticking with that theme, Carolina was the only winning team in its own porous division, where the Panthers went 5-1, their lone loss at Atlanta.
It may not be fair to penalize the Panthers for their powderpuff schedule, but it also wouldn’t be wise to ignore it.
In a year that didn’t feature a whole lot of strong teams, the Cardinals faced stiffer competition than today’s opponent. Hailing from the NFC West, Arizona had to deal with the Seahawks twice as well as the Rams, with St. Louis commonly dangerous against divisional foes.
The Cards also drew the AFC North (Pittsburgh and Cincinnati) and the NFC North (Green Bay and Minnesota).
Safe to say, 2015 pedigree belongs to Arizona. Even with the tougher sked, Bruce Arians’ club can go toe-to-toe statistically with its hosts.
We mentioned Carolina’s league-leading 31.3 points per game. Right behind them in second place are the Cards, averaging 30.6 per contest. Arizona was tops in the league in yards per game, racking up 408.3 per game compared to the Panthers’ 11th ranking at 366 ypg.
As for quarterback, Newton may receive more headlines, but Carson Palmer’s numbers are just as good, if not better than his counterpart’s.
Each QB threw for 35 touchdowns during the regular season with Palmer having one more interception (11 compared to Cam’s 10). Palmer amassed 4,671 passing yards to Newton’s 3,837 and even with the Carolina pivot’s ability to run, his 636 rushing yards still left him a couple hundred yards behind Palmer’s overall production.
The two teams last met in the playoffs a year ago. Unfortunately, Palmer was hurt and Carolina toyed with an inept Ryan Lindley in an easy 27-16 win.
A year later, things are different and with little separating these two skilled teams, accepting any points being offered is the only way to go.
TAKING: CARDINALS +3
SPORTS WAGERS
New England -3 over DENVER
Ever notice how the NFL always gets what it wants? Now it’ll be Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning one last time. It’s only fitting that the greatest quarterback rivalry of our generation will meet to decide the AFC championship. There is only one year in age that separates these two future Hall of Famers but at this point in time, Brady is playing like he’s 25 and Manning is playing like he’s 55. Brady has defeated Manning in 11 of their previous 16 meetings and at no other time has the gap between the two been as wide as it is right now. Brady is having a great year, one of his best ever with a league high 36 TD passes against just seven picks. What’s even more remarkable is that he has done so despite multiple injuries to his key targets and without a running game.
By contrast, Peyton Manning was benched earlier in the year. A series of neck surgeries and a foot injury have taken away the zip on Manning’s throws, rendering him nothing more than a glorified game manager. If he didn’t have the pedigree that he has now, Manning would be backing up Brock Osweiler here instead of getting the nod over him. Peyton Manning should not be playing football in the AFC Championship game. Instead he should be counting heads on the bus on the way from the hotel to the stadium. Manning’s only TD last week against the weak defense of the Steelers (that he made look good) came after Denver recovered a fumble in Pittsburgh’s territory. In his prime, Manning had a terrible playoff track record, including a 1-5 postseason record in sub-40 degree temperature. Again, that’s when he was great. The forecast is calling for temperatures anywhere from 25 to 43 degrees.
There isn’t a QB in the NFL besides Peyton Manning that would get this start with the numbers that he put up. With nine TD passes, 17 picks and a 67.7 passer rating, Manning gets this start. The Steelers are still trying to figure out how they lost that game and so are we. The Broncos are now being forced to be a run first team without the benefit of a stud running back. The Broncos will attempt to win this game by setting the clock back 25 years and playing like it’s 1990. The Broncs will rely heavily on what the media is referring to as their great defense. That great defense allowed Ben Roethlisberger with a sprained shoulder and minus Antonio Brown to throw for 339 yards this past Sunday. The Broncos are not difficult to defend. That means their defense will be on the field for extended minutes and probably more Patriots possessions than they care to give him. Give Brady and Belichick the ball over and over and they’ll eventually make you pay for it. In the end, we can’t imagine for a second such a QB mismatch in the Patriots favor ending up with a Broncos victory. It’s probably not going to be close either.
CAROLINA -3 over Arizona
The Arizona Cardinals had a great season. They went 14-3 overall and they put a beating on a bunch of teams, which included a 40-point win over San Fran, a 30-point victory over the Packers in Week 15, a 23-point win over Philadelphia and two 25-point victories over both Detroit and Chicago. Those blowouts look good on paper but are they really worth anything? We don’t think so. Those blowouts wins were against teams that are used to losing and enjoy getting whacked. Their 30-point win over Green Bay in Week 15 was a case of good timing for the Cardinals, as Green Bay arrived depleted and in poor form. While we take nothing away from the Cardinals easy win and cover over the Pack during the regular season, the playoff game last week was a different story, as the Cardinals were lucky rather than good in defeating Green Bay, 26-20, in overtime.
Carson Palmer was picked off twice by the Packers and he probably should have been picked off at least twice more. Palmer doesn’t look right and that’s because he’s not comfortable with that dislocated finger on his throwing hand. In three games since the injury, Palmer has completed just 55-of-93 passes with six touchdowns and four interceptions. If the Cardinals aren’t running effectively, which they couldn’t do against the Packers, they can be overwhelmed at the point of attack. In their last two games, the Cardinals have run the ball 32 times for 67 yards, an average of barely two yards per carry. Palmer had never won a postseason game in 13 seasons until Arizona averted disaster by getting past the Packers at home last week. Now Arizona hits the road, where much emphasis is being put on its 7-1 road record. We say big deal. Arizona defeated one playoff team on the road, which occurred in prime time back in Week 10 against Seattle. The Seahawks scored 32 points and outscored Arizona in the second half but eventually lost 39-32. The rest of the Cardinals road victories were against one dreg after another (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, San Fran, St. Louis and Philadelphia).
The best thing that happened last week was that the Panthers came somewhat close to blowing a 31-0 halftime lead. The second best thing that happened was the Panthers not scoring a point in the second half. The reason those two occurrences are so great is because we now get to back the Panthers at a reduced price because of it.
Pay no attention to the Panthers second half last week. None, zip, nada, zilch. Mindset is everything in football. The Panthers came out all jacked up and took a 31-0 lead into the half while making the Seahawks look like a bad version of the Brownies. We all saw Carolina steamroll Seattle in the first half. Subsequently, the Panthers came out of the locker room to start the second half with a different mindset. The Panthers’ second-half goal against the Seahawks was running time off the clock rather than running up a score and that’s precisely what they did. The final margin of victory was seven points but it may as well have been 28 because it did not matter. From where we sit, the Panthers have every advantage in this game. They’re superior on both offense and defense. They have the superior running back and the superior defense. They’re now 9-0 at home after last week’s playoff win. This is the third straight year that Carolina has made the playoffs so they have absolutely paid their dues. The Panthers are a great, complete and confident team but for whatever reason, this market keeps short-selling them. We took advantage of that last week and we’ll attempt to do the same here.
Tony George
Patriots vs. Broncos
Play: Under 44½
Yes all week we have seen the Tom Brady and Peyton Manning hype. The mutual appreciation of each other’s talent in press conferences, and yes perhaps the last AFC Championship game future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning will play in. That is worth the watch alone folks! That’s all fine and dandy, but it is not Brady versus Manning, it is the Pats and Bronco’s locking horns in an epic battle at Mile High on Sunday and this one will be a good one folks.
I have a strong opinion on the side play in this game for a premium play however the TOTAL in this game is interesting. One cannot ignore the Bronco’s key to success all season was NOT Manning and or Oswiller lighting up the scoreboard, it was the dominant defense ranked #1 in the NFL, #1 against the pass, #1 in total yards allowed, and #3 against the run and #4 in points allowed. Denver’s defense is no joke folks and Tom Brady will be dancing all day against a pass rush that had a NFL high 52 sacks this season. As you look at New England’s defense, they are under appreciated and have some talent of their own. The Pats are 9th against the run, 9th in total yards allowed and they can also put some heat on the passer. Given the fact I expect both teams to struggle in the red zone, and Denver has really struggled there as of late, and Denver’s offense overall tends to sputter at times, and New England going up against the best in the NFL here, in a strategic chess match, I smell a low scoring game.
Sean Higgs
Patriots vs. Broncos
Play: Under 44½
We will and have heard all week about Brady vs Manning. Last meeting perhaps. Another trip to a Super Bowl cementing their HOF careers. But the defenses will be what rules the day this afternoon.
The Broncos won all season behind their defense. Not Manning and his 17 INTs to just 9 TDs. Or Brock Osweiler and his 10 TDs and 6INTs. The defense was ranked #1 in the NFL basically across the board. The Patriots defense wasn't too shaby either. They were ranked 9th in total yards allowed.
I can't see Manning just flipping a switch here. He does have talented receivers, but his arm and body are giving out on him. He did have some drops by his WRs last week that hurt. Brady is at the opposite end of that. He looks fine.
For me, this is going to come down to red-zone execution. This isn't vintage offenses of the past for both teams. I see more FGs than TDs.
Vegas Butcher
New England Patriots -3
Last week I backed the Patriots because I felt their offense of the second half of the season wasn’t indicative of their ‘true strength’ with the guy like Edelman back in the fold. They didn’t disappoint. Patriots averaged 6.1 YPP (Yards Per Play) and registered 340 yards of offense on only 56 plays. By comparison, Chiefs gained 378 yards of offense (only 38 more) on almost 50% more plays than the Patriots ran. This speaks to the efficiency this Patriots O displayed in the game. Their offensive DVOA was +60% in the game, the HIGHEST mark they’ve displayed in any game this season. I think it’s important to note that this was done against the 2nd best defense in the league, a Chiefs D that registered a weighted-DVOA of -21.5% this season. The #1 ranked defense with a weighted-DVOA of -22.1% was Denver, a team that Pats will face off against in the Conference Championship. If New England was able to dominate this KC defense last week, even some regression from that level of efficiency should be enough to play well against the Broncos. To make matters worse, Denver’s top CB, Chris Harris Jr., is listed as GTD with a shoulder injury. He’ll play, but his effectiveness could be a bit below 100%. This is a major issue as Harris is the only member of the secondary that has the quickness and the shiftiness to keep up with guys like Edelman and Amendola. Big lanky CB like Talib and safety Ward, aren’t a good matchup for these guys.
I also want to point out that while Denver’s D started out on an “all-time great” pace, they weren’t as good in the 2nd half of the season. Their DVOA went from -37% in the 1st half of the year to -21% in the 2nd. That’s still not bad, but majority of that efficiency came against the run, where Denver was -30% DVOA in the 2nd half of the year. Against the pass, Denver went from -55% in the 1st half of the season to a much more realistic -16% in the 2nd (this mark would have been 3rd best for the full year…so still very good, but not “all-time great”). Remember, Pats aren’t very likely to run much against the Broncos as I expect them to once again utilize their quick-hitting passing attack. With Harris at less than 100%, the game-plan favors the Pats offensively.
I must also mention that this is a ‘revenge’ game for the Pats, after losing at Denver in week 12 of the season. It’s important to note that neither Edelman nor Amendola suited up for that one, leaving Brady with targets like Bolden, Chandler, and LaFell behind Gronk. Brady still threw for 3 TD’s and had a QBR of 62, but clearly wasn’t as effective without his top-2 WR’s. In addition, New England was missing a few key pieces on defense, as Jamie Collins didn’t suit up for the game while Dont’a Hightower got injured in the 2nd quarter. That’s a major reason why the Broncos averaged 5.6 YPC on the ground and were able to get the win in OT. I think the rematch is going to be much more difficult for the Broncos. First, there’s no way they’ll be as efficient running the ball as they were in the first meeting. New England has a -24% DVOA against the run in the 2nd half of the year, one of the best marks in the league. When fully healthy, this D is a top-10 unit in stopping the run. Second key factor of course is that it won’t be Brock Osweiler behind center, like he was in the first meeting. Instead, you’ll have one of the worst QB’s in the league in Peyton Manning starting this game. It’s bad enough that Manning has a 1:8 TD:INT ratio at home and a completion rate below 60%, but look how he compares with Brady in some key stats this year:
Manning: -26% DVOA (#36); 45 QBR (#31); 6.2 PY/A (#28); 9 : 17 TD : INT
Brady: +20% DVOA (#5); 64 QBR (#11); 6.9 PY/A (#10); 36 : 7 TD : INT
Brady will never have a really high PY/A ratio as he doesn’t throw deep as often as the Palmers of the world, but he’s lethal in the short quick passing game, and is the best QB in the league in pure execution. That’s something Manning “used” to be, before old age, major neck surgery, and declining arm strength have made him a below replacement level player. Honestly, this is the MOST critical factor in Patriots’ favor at the most critical position in the NFL.
For Denver to win this game, they’ll need an otherworldly performance from their defense, as I just don’t see Manning doing enough to keep up with Brady and Pats’ O. And based on the factors described above, it’s very doubtful we’ll see the type of an effort needed from this Denver D to win this one. Last week, Steelers averaged 6.7 YPP and almost 400 yards of offense against the Broncos. That was with a hobbled Roethlisberger and without Brown/Bell/Williams. Now, the Denver D will go up against a Pats team that will have their full complement of the skill position players and of course Tom Brady throwing the ball. The Pats are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last few years avenging a previous loss. I think they’ll be well prepared for this one and I love the strong advantages in offensive execution in their favor here.
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Panthers over the Cardinals.
Both teams gave pause last weekend, as Carolina raced out to a 31-0 lead over Seattle, and then did NOT score again in the second half of a 31-24 win.
Arizona meanwhile nearly imploded against Green Bay as they allowed Aaron Rodgers to throw another Hail Mary pass that tied the score and sent the game into OT. Also, Carson Palmer's throws seemed to be a bit tentative against the Pack, and his costly interception off his back-foot was a head-scratcher.
True, these teams did meet in the Wild Card round last year on this field with Carolina coming out on top, but since Carson Palmer did not play in that game, I am not going to lean on that result too heavily.
I am going to lean on the fact that home field advantage at this time of the season means a whole helluva lot.
Each of the past 2 conference championship games has gone to the home team (both in NFC and AFC), and the host in the NFC has won 7 of the last 11 games played overall.
Then there is the fact that Carolina is a perfect 9-0 at home this season, covering in 7 of the 9 wins.
Arizona has been great on the road at 7-1 straight up, so I certainly do not think this is a blowout by any stretch of the imagination, but someone has to lose, and today I see the road team falling just short.
Lay the field goal with the Panthers.
4* CAROLINA