Jim Feist
Celtics vs. 76ers
Play: Over 207
Both teams are young and like to run. Boston is 5-0 over the total on the road and 19-8 over vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. The 76ers are playing well on offense, running at opponents, winning 2 of the last 3. The 76ers beat the Magic 96-87 on Wednesday night, shooting 9 for 19 from 3-point range and shot 48.6 percent from the field overall. Philadelphia is 18-6 over the total at home and 36-15-1 over the total playing on two or more days rest. And the Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Philadelphia.
Bill Biles
Patriots / Broncos Over 44.5
This is a game that will be all about Brady vs manning and both offenses will be able to score some. Points. Weather should not be a problem in this one so the over should the play
Bob Balfe
Broncos +3
It simply amazes me how the Denver Broncos are being overlooked in this game. This is the best total defensive team in the NFL, they are playing at home and they are getting points. New England has a shattered offensive line and absolutely no running game and every single handicapper and average gambler is all over them today. Tom Brady is an amazing talent, but the only way they win this game is if the ball is out of his hands in under 2 seconds every time he passes the ball. It is not hard to do this when you are the home team and control the noise at the snap of the football, but on the road it becomes very difficult to do this on a silent count. Denver is excellent at applying pressure and if they can force Brady to hold the ball a little bit longer than normal then you are going to see a lot of turnovers. Let’s not forget that the main targets Brady has are all coming off injuries. This unit looked great last week especially on the opening drive, but it is going to get a lot tougher in the mile high atmosphere. These games at the end of the year are so hard to predict because you never know where or when that fluke turnover is going to take place, but it just amazes me that people dismiss this Broncos team because of Peyton Manning’s throwing arm. This is a Broncos team that can run the football and run it very well. In the history of the league teams that run the ball well and that have top ranked defenses always do well. Let’s not also forget the scandal the Patriots were in with deflated footballs last year. I think it was a waste of time to investigate them and to suspend Tom Brady, but if there ever was a chance for the league to get the last word it would be today with iffy penalties. I am telling you right now that the league would be thrilled to not have the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Let’s keep our eye on the officials today. I think this is going to be a thriller. Take the Broncos.
Cardinals +3 & Over 47
You can’t just look at the results from the week before to make your selections. The Cardinals did not look hot while the Panthers dominated, but did they? I saw another blown lead from Carolina in the 2nd half which would have been the most embarrassing loss in NFL History if there was another few minutes left on the clock. This is a young Carolina football team. I am not doubting their ability to win a super bowl, but I think their offensive numbers are a bit over inflated in being the #1 scoring team in the league. This is a team that played a lot of bad defenses while the Cardinals did it in a tough defensive NFC West Division. I don’t think this Carolina Secondary is going to be able to stop the receivers the Cardinals have. Arizona is a hot climate town, but almost all of the skilled players grew up and played in cold weather cities. This team has more experience in colder weather than this Panthers team. I love Cam Newton’s game and this rushing attack has been awesome the last few years, but I can’t look past how young this team is and how untested they are. For the most part this team dominated this year, but these playoff games are not like the games in the regular season. Carolina is not jumping out to a 31-0 halftime lead in this game. How is this team going to handle the pressure in the final 15 minutes when Arizona is moving the chains? This is going to be one heck of a football game to set up the Super Bowl. Take the Cardinals and take the Over.
DAVE COKIN
PURDUE +3.5
We’ve arrived at the point of the college basketball season where there will be an increasing number of rematches taking place. I’ve always paid very close attention to same season revenge spots in college hoops, and I’ve generally enjoyed a good deal of success isolating the right spots as far as this goes.
A key for me is measuring how meaningful the revenge variable might be. In other words, I’m not just blindly betting on the team that lost the first meeting to avenge the defeat in the rematch. But there are some good statistical edges that I’ve put into play with good results and then there are games like today’s second time around between Purdue and Iowa.
The first game between the Boilermakers and Hawkeyes was, in effect, a weird doubleheader. Purdue completely dominated the first 20 minutes, amassing a 19-point lead and heading off the court with a 37-20 lead.
But after halftime, it was if the Boilermakers decided the game was over and they proceeded to get obliterated by the Hawkeyes. Iowa outscored Purdue 50-26 in the second half, and the Boilermakers were humbled on their home court in the process.
I don’t think there’s much question about what Iowa coach Fran McCaffrey will go with here in terms of a game plan. Defensive pressure was the game changer in that January 3 clash and it’s not broken, then don’t try to fix it.
As for the Boilermakers, they need to do what they didn’t do in the collapse that took place in the first game. Purdue has to attack the Iowa defense. The absolutely did little of that during the epic melt and paid a very unfortunate price.
We should find out quite a bit about this Purdue team today. Regardless of the final score, it’s vital for the Boilermakers to have an aggressive attitude for 40 minutes in this game. If they get mentally dominated as they did during the disaster that took place at West Lafayette, I don’t think it bodes well for the Boilermakers down the road. If they stay in attack mode throughout the game, that’s a positive that will tell me this outfit is for real, even if they come up short on the scoreboard.
For me, this comes down to taking points with an avenging opponent I expect to see play with tremendous intensity, and while there will be those who disagree, I also think the Boilermakers match up really well against the Hawkeyes. Iowa is generally a bigger team than most opponents but that’s not the case here and Purdue is also the more physical squad.
The Boilermakers will likely lose the possession battle here as Iowa is simply outstanding when it comes to ball security and Purdue really doesn’t force many turnovers. But Purdue is as good as it gets at making life miserable for opposing shooters and I can see them dominating the glass here. This should be a terrific game, and I’m taking the points with Purdue in what ought to be a thriller.
Bruce Marshall
Drexel +6.5
After having had a look at Wilmington at Trask Coliseum on New Year's Eve and staying within a double-digit impost, Bruiser Flint's Drexel could provide decent value in a preferred home dog role in the rematch. The undervalued Dragons have covered 6 of 8 and pulled a mild upset vs. favored Charleston in their last game at Philly on Jan. 9. Expect a very focused effort from Drexel top scorer, F Tavon Allen (13.4 ppg), off season-worst 0 for 6 from the floor while posting the big donut in last Saturday's loss at Towson, one of the few subpar Dragon efforts in recent weeks.
Rob Vinciletti
Purdue +4
Purdue has home loss revenge and has covered 4 of 5 as a dog of 3.5 to +6 and they are 7-0 to the spread in the 2nd half vs teams who average 77+ points. Purdue is 3-0 on the road if the total is 145 to 150. They are a solid 11-2 vs winning teams. Iowa has failed to cover 5 of 6 as a home favorite from 3.5 to -6. In the first meeting Purdue had a 17 point halftime lead and lost. They will be more than motivated today.
Mike Lundin
Rangers vs. Senators
pLAY: Rangers -130
The New York Rangers have won four of their last six and are coming off back-to-back wins against Vancouver and Carolina. They've won four straight meetings at Canadian Tire Centre and I think they'll overcome the Ottawa Senators tonight as well. Henrik Lundqvist is on a three-game personal winning streak and has compiled a 1.65 GAA and .947 SV% over a 4-1-0 span. He's posted a 1.46 GAA while winning three of his last four matchups against the Sens who are off a pair of losses against the Devils and the Islanders Thur/Fri, giving up a total of 11 goals through the two games. They're 1-6 in their last seven in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation and this looks like a very rough spot for the Sens.
Scott Spreitzer
Illinois-Chicago vs. Wright State
pLAY: Illinois-Chicago +18½
We had Wright State on these pages on Friday night and cashed the ticket when the Raiders won their biggest game of the season, a 73-62 win over Valpo. But the Raiders are in a tough spot today. Not too tough to win outright, but we feel they're going to fall short of the big point-spread. Wright State has not been a double-digit favorite since January 12, 2014. Ironically, they were laying lumber to UIC in a contest that followed an outright underdog win over Valpo two days prior. WSU fell short of the spread in a 58-53 win. While many of the faces have changed over the last two calendar years, we expect similar results. Wright State does not shoot well most nights, ranked 226th in the nation in FG percentage, while averaging just 67 ppg. They're also less than 48 hours removed from the big win at the top of the Horizon League, a tough emotional obstacle to overcome. The UIC Flames enter on a 5-0 ATS run at this venue, while WSU is just 3-9 ATS at home against teams with a losing road record. While I expect the Raiders to win the game SU, I don't believe they'll do so by a spread covering margin.
Red Dog Sports
Syracuse vs. Virginia
Play: Syracuse +9.5
The Orange have been playing well since Jim Boeheim's return, led by Trevor Cooney, Michael Ginbije and Tyler Roberson. They were able to win at Duke and now travel to UVA for a Sunday night game that was postponed from Saturday. Virginia has some solid players such as Malcolm Brogden and Anthony Gill but they are not deep. Mike Tobey, London Perrantes and Evan Nolte has not been playing as well as expected. They have been starting Jack Salt at center and he has very little experience.
Big Al
Dayton vs. Fordham
Pick: Fordham
The Rams come into this afternoon's contest with a gaudy 11-1 home record, but find themselves installed as a sizable home underdog vs. the 15-3 Flyers. But home teams that have won 11 or more home games on the season (against 2 or less losses) have been terrific as underdogs of +5 or more points. Since 1991, they've cashed 65% of the time. I won't buck those numbers.
Wayne Root
Patriots at Broncos
Play: Broncos
Championship Week Game of Year Would you rather have Denver at +3.5 playing at home or +10 playing in New England? Both are the same and if you think there''s value at one then there''s equal value at the other. Of all the tickets written in Vegas this week, 75% have been on the Patriots. Defense wins playoff games and the Broncos have a great one. Brady is 2-6 lifetime in Denver and 0-2 in AFC Championship games. And that was when his teams were healthy. His counterpart in Peyton Manning is physically a shell of his former past. But he is fresh having sat for half a season. He has a PH.D. in reading defenses. He is a game manager but a smart one. He will mix up short passes looking to turn them into long runs. He has CJ Anderson for ball control and clock management. And he can still throw it long. His long passes are actually easier to throw than those arm strength bullets needed to throw under coverage. Everyone is aware of what you get with these two teams. However, the Patriots did lose a needed win in game 16 in Miami that may have prevented this road trip. The biggest factor here is line value. The line may move off the +3.5 and go to +4 but will never drop below +3.5. Grab a good number with this one and watch a well played game by the Broncos defense grab this win.
Cardinals at Panthers
Play: Cardinals
Before anyone gets overly depressed from last weeks Arizona performance, it was not typical. In fact there was a legitimate reason. Carson Palmer played poorly, out of sorts all because of the bye week. He had too much time, a different routine to mentally handle and too much time to think that he had never won a playoff game. That is all behind him. What you saw last week will not resemble this week. Palmer finished with career highs of 35 touchdown passes and a 104.6 passer rating in guiding Arizona (14-3) to a league-high 408.3 yards per game and the NFC West title. ( He did throw three TDs last week). The Cardinals enter this game with a 7-1 road record. The Panthers have two serious injuries to contend with in RB Jonathan Stewart''s ankle (sprain) and Jared Allen''s broken foot (out). The game plan is awesome for the Cardinals. Blitz Cam Newton right from the start and have Carson Palmer throw deep as the Panthers only glaring flaw are with the safeties and one cornerback that can be exploited. They may use the deep pass to set up their running game. This is the first ever playoff game between two Heisman winners with Newton(Auburn) and Palmer (USC). Palmer''s offensive line will have to be at their best a Carolina does have a great front four. Palmer is experienced enough and has a full year watching from the sidelines last season to not be at his best. Getting that playoff win last week against Green Bay was huge.
Jesse Schule
Utah vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
The Huskies have been one of the biggest surprises in college basketball this season, sitting at the top of the PAC12 with a 5-1 conference record. They haven't exactly had a soft schedule either, knocking off the likes of Colorado, USC and UCLA. They host Utah tonight, and the Utes have a history of struggling on the road. They've suffered losses at Stanford and California already this season.
Washington has won four of it's last five home meetings with Utah, and the Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight versus the PAC12. Rebounding isn't a strong point for Utah, and the Utes only managed 23 rebounds in a 77-68 loss at Washington in the last meeting. The Huskies have been dominating on the boards, averaging over 40 rebounds per game at home. The Utes have become a little overrated and they've failed to cover in eight of their last 11 games against conference rivals.
Alex Smart
Dayton vs. Fordham
Play: Dayton -7½
The Dayton Flyers are one of the most dangerous mid major teams in the nation, and are well rested and on 5 days rest, and now even more dangerous with fresh legs. Fordham is a pretty good team, but were crushed by VCU and St.Jospehs, by DDs, and Dayton closely resembles those teams from a talent perspective and another beat down I'm betting is on the way for the Rams. It must be noted that HC Neubauer of Fordham is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games versus top tier teams like Dayton shooting 45%+ with a defense of 42% or less in all games and 1-12 ATS L/12 in home games versus top tier sides - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games in the season and a long term 4-22 ATS under the same perimeters. Dayton was 4-0 ATS/SU in their L/4 in this series all the losses by DDs.
Marc David
NC-Wilmington vs. Drexel
Play: NC-Wilmington -6½
NC has won 4 straight and scored at least 79 points each time. They have scored over 80 points in 11 games and held opponents below 70 in 7 games. They have 4 players in double digit scoring while averaging 83 points, 39 rebounds and 14 assists a game. They shoot 46% from the floor and hit 33% of their 3's. They are a deep team with 8 players getting at least 13 minutes a game an 10 players getting at least 4 points a game. Drexel has lost 7 of 8 games and their last 4 have been held to 61 points or less. They have just 2 players in double digit scoring and their top 3 scorers all shoot below 40%. They score 63 points a game and grab 35 boards shooting 37% from the floor and 31% of their 3's. They have a small lineup and could have problems with that against NC.
Power Sports
Southern California vs. Oregon St.
Pick: Oregon St.
When you have a ranked vs. unranked opponent, often times the former is overvalued simply because they happen to have a little number next to their name. We can thank the pollsters here for the ability to take points w/ Oregon State, who hosts #21 USC in a battle of two teams coming off a loss.
The real "sweet spot" in this situation is when the unranked opponent is hosting a ranked foe as OSU is here. Just yesterday, we saw Tennessee beat South Carolina (had it!), Georgia Tech cover against Louisville and Cal upset Arizona (had it!). Texas Tech also nearly upset West Virginia. If the ranked team happens to be lower in the polls (say, in the 20's), then there's really a chance for some value as the reality of the matter is that there's not much difference between the 20th and 40th ranked teams.
Quite frankly, I'm not even sure the Trojans deserve to be ranked. They are off a loss, at Oregon, 89-81 as five-point pups. This will be their third straight road game and second in four nights. They are just 2-2 on the conference road so far and giving up a lot of points in the process. Oregon State may be riding a three-game losing streak, but should take solace in the fact that USC has not won in the state of Oregon (at UO or OSU) since 2009. It's six straight losses here in Corvallis where they've averaged just 61.3 points per game. The Beavers will have the best player on the floor Sunday afternoon (Gary Payton II). Take the points.