Larry Ness
USC at Oregon St.
Prediction: USC
Southern Cal's joined the AP’s top-25 (at No. 21) on Monday, ‘joining the party’ for the first time since the 2007-08 season. However, the Trojans’ stay figures to brief, after USC lost 89-81 loss at Oregon on Thursday (sixth consecutive loss in Eugene to the Ducks). USC trailed by as many as 15 points in the second half. The Trojans entered that game shooting a Pac 12-best 41.1 percent from three-point range but went 8 of 28 to equal their second-worst percentage (28.6) from beyond the arc this season. Adding insult to injury, they were also outscored 43-30 in the paint. "That's basketball," head coach Andy Enfield said. "Our guys played hard. We're not going to play perfect all season."
Staying in the top-25 is only a sideshow, as USC knows wining in Corvallis will be quite a challenge. After all, the Trojans will be trying to snap a six-game skid at Oregon State. USC’s last win at one of Oregon’s two conference schools came against the Ducks back on Jan 2, 2009, with its most recent victory in Corvallis coming a year earlier. USC has averaged just 61.3 points and shot only 28.6 percent from three-point range in its last six at Oregon State. However, Andy Enfield's USC group has better scoring balance than most NBA teams, featuring SIX double digit scorers. That group includes the team's three starting guards, McLaughlin (13.1-3.6-5.1), Jacobs (12.8-5.5-5.6) and Reinhardt (12.0-3-1) plus sixth-man Stewart (10.6-3.8). The 6-11 Jovanovic (12.2-7.6) starts up front with 6-10 freshman Boatright (12.4-5.5), while 6-11 freshman Metu (7.0-3.4) and the 6-7 Clark (2.8-5.2) add frontcourt depth.
Oregon State opened 11-3, the school’s best start in 27 years, but the Beavers have dropped THREE in a row. Senior guard Gary Payton II leads in scoring (17.2), rebounding (8.0) and assists (5.2) and whilefFreshman forward Tres Tinkle, the son of head coach Wayne Tinkle, is the only other Oregon State player averaging in double figures with 11.9 points per game (5.2 RPG), the Beavers have solid contributors behind those two. It starts with freshman guard Stephen Thompson Jr (9.6) and 6-10 freshman forward Eubanks (7.4-4.4). Returning players like the 6-10 Schaftenaar (6.9-3.5), as well as guards Duvivier (6.5) and Morris-Walker (6.0) have tourney hopes running high in Corvallis.
However, the Beavers have shot just 37.5 percent during their three-game skid and allowed UCLA to hit 51.8 percent in Wednesday's 82-73 home defeat. "For whatever reason we did not have the same pop, the mental sharpness we've had at home," coach Wayne Tinkle told the school's official website. "We did not have the defensive urgency we've had. We have to correct that. We have to go back to work, roll up our sleeves and challenge the guys so we can get better. We will keep building this thing." That task will be tough up against a USC team averaging 4.4 PPG (12th in the nation).
Trojans get a rare win in the state of Oregon and it comes “with room to spare!”
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Purdue at IOWA (-3')
The STORYLINE in this game today - It's another epic Big Ten battle today, as the ninth-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes host the 22nd-ranked Purdue Boilermakers. And my money is on the home team, laying the points, as I see the Hawkeyes scoring a near-double digit win.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Mx x-factor in this one is Iowa's strength of schedule. Playing in the Big Ten is tough enough, but this team has been stellar in non-conference play as well. Overall, Iowa has played nine teams ranked in the RPI Top 50, going 6-3 in those contests. The Hawkeyes beat Florida State (48), Wichita State (38), Michigan (37), Purdue (33), and Michigan State twice (16).
BOTTOM LINE is - Going back to last year, Iowa has won 12 consecutive Big Ten regular season games, the team's longest such streak since the 1969-70 conference season (14-0). The team's 6-0 start in the Big Ten is its best since the 1986-87 season (5-0). The Hawkeyes have won five of their six league games by double figures. Lay the chalk in this one.
1* IOWA
Chris Jordan
UCLA lost on Saturday. And so, that adds to USC's appeal for winning this one, while also maintaining its top-three status in the Pac 12 Conference. And actually, with Arizona losing, the Trojans have a chance to move into a second-place tie with Oregon in the conference standings.
Oregon State is just 11-6 overall and 2-4 in Pac 12 play, and it doesn't have near the talent or momentum the Trojans do, which is why I have no trouble laying the road chalk in this one.
The Trojans will be pissed off after losing the other night at Oregon, 89-81, and will be looking to take out their frustrations in this one.
USC has become a team that plays above the rim. SC once stood for Southern California, but has been considered to be known as a Slam City this season. The Trojans have registered 75 dunks in their first 19 games this season. That's a lot of athleticism, something the Beavers lack.
Look for a lot of energy from the Trojans here.
1* USC
Brad Wilton
My Sunday comp play is to back Syracuse plus the generous points at Virginia.
The Orange have been playing some rock-solid hoops lately, winning and covering 3 in a row in ACC play, including an upset win at Duke their last time out.
Virginia came up with a nice home win over a red-hot Clemson team in their latest effort, but they failed to cover as the -10 point chalk. That puts the Cavaliers on a 2-6 spread slide their last 8 games - all listed as the chalk.
The Wahoos have won and covered the last pair of series meetings over the past 2 seasons, so look for the Orange to tighten things up this Sunday night and give UVa a tussle.
Take the points.
3* SYRACUSE
Scott Delaney
In a delayed game between No. 4 Villanova and the 16th-ranked Providence Friars, I'm siding with the higher-ranked Wildcats in Big East play. The line is more than accurate, and depicts just how good Jay Wright's bunch is.
After a state of emergency was declared in Pennsylvania yesterday from the winter storm that brought more than a foot of snow in the area, the two will finally take the court.
And what I've learned in the past is that when there is a situation like this, with weather delaying games by a day or two, the road team is inconvenienced more, and tends to fall flat.
Bad enough you have to play a team like 'Nova, but to somewhat deflate after getting up for a game that should have been played Saturday, I don't expect much from the Friars in this one.
1* VILLANOVA
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Toronto Raptors minus the points at home over the LA Clippers. At the time of this writing, the Raptors are laying around two points in Vegas and offshore.
Two teams with identical records face off in an East meets West showdown... and these happen to be two of the hottest teams in the NBA.
Toronto puts their season-high seven-game winning streak on the line tonight, and they'll catch a Clippers team that is hot too, but without Blake Griffin for a few more games.
Some might say the Raptors are a product of their easy schedule recently, but they aren't winning close games... they're blowing teams out and playing their best defense of the year.
Should be a fun one to watch, but in the end the Raptors will get it done again.
Take the Raptors minus the points as your free play of the day.
1* TORONTO
Jimmy Boyd
USC -2
The Trojans are in a prime bounce back spot coming off a tough 81-89 loss at Oregon, where USC shot an uncharacteristic 28.6% (8-28) from behind the 3-point line. As a team the Trojans lead the Pac-12 in 3-point shooting at 41.1%, so it was simply an off night from long range. The impressive thing is they still only lost the game by 8 against a Ducks team that plays extremely well at home. That was also a tough spot for USC, who was primed for a letdown after back-to-back huge wins over Arizona at home in overtime and on the road against USC.
Oregon State has some nice wins, but have hit a bump in the road here of late. The Beavers have lost 3 straight, including a 73-82 home loss to UCLA last time out. I just don't see Oregon State being able to compete against a motivated Trojans team that is one of the more underrated teams in the country.
USC is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 after a game in which they failed to cover the spread, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games after a loss and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 against teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game. Oregon State on the other hand is just 14-33 ATS in their last 47 home games off a conference home loss, 5-12 ATS in their last 17 against at team with a winning record and just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 conference games.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tennessee State +11½ over BELMONT
This one tips off at 5:00 PM EST or right in the middle of the mayhem of today’s two NFL games. In other words, nobody will be watching this game and therefore not many will even give it a second glance. There are many early games to choose from for bettors to “parlay” their NCAAB games onto the NFL package. Those early games had to have garnered more attention from oddsmakers and we trust we may have caught them slightly off guard in this one. Placing a wager on a point-spread is supposed to be a 50/50 proposition but we don’t see this one that way at all.
When you gaze at Belmont and Tennessee State’s out-of-conference schedule, the Bruins are 8-6 with perhaps their most impressive victories being achieved against Marquette on the road to open the season and a win in a four-point thriller at home in round two against Valparaiso to close out this docket. To Belmont’s credit, its out-of-conference wins are more impressive than TSU’s and perhaps their schedule was more comprehensive, but Tennessee State is no stranger to playing quality basketball teams. TSU’s out-of-conference finale was on the road at Tennessee, where the Tigers took the Vols to the wire, losing by just five points (74-69) after controlling most of the game before surrendering the lead late. This was Tennessee State’s last loss and this loss was nearly a month ago. Since then, Tennessee State has been on a tear while dominating the Ohio Valley Conference.
Meanwhile, Belmont’s last loss was at Cleveland State (67-65) on December 19th. Cleveland State is not nearly as scary as good old Tennessee, but the Bruins have also marked off their last six inside their conference. Finally, there is the key match-up of this game, Belmont’s prolific offense against Tennessee State’s stout defense. Belmont tries to outshoot and outscore opponents while Tennessee State tries to bring the lunchbox to the court and shut you down. Our stance on this subject has been the same for years so we will not divulge any further.
There are many parallels between these teams, record and performance wise, so we’re having a hard time digesting an 11½-point margin. Overall, Tennessee State is 9-4, outside of their conference and they beat some of the same teams that Belmont had scheduled, including Lipscomb and Kennesaw State. Both teams also sport losses to Middle Tennessee State with Belmont’s coming on the road in more hideous fashion (83-62) as opposed to the Tigers losing by just a three-ball at home (69-66). However, Belmont has been a consistent contender for OVC Eastern Division titles and frequent winner of the Ohio Valley Postseason Tournament. We have seen Belmont in the Men’s Basketball Tournament just last year and they have been there four of the last five tournaments overall. By contrast, Tennessee State hasn’t been to the big dance in 22 years and they have not won the OVC since 1993. In other words, Belmont is a highly recognized program while 80% of people couldn’t name Tennessee State’s mascot. Like this game itself, the Tigers of Tennessee State are under the radar and can easily stay within this range throughout.
Pass NHL
Scott Rickenbach
New England at Denver
Play: New England -3
The Patriots are playing this game with revenge for two reasons. One is the ridiculous regular season loss this past season where the Pats were up 21-7 late in the 3rd quarter and then muffed a punt and went on to lose in overtime by a 30-24 score. The other reason for "playoff revenge" is that the Pats lost at Denver two years ago in the post-season. New England got some measure of revenge by winning huge in a regular season match-up in November of 2014 but the loss this past November (couple with this being their first playoff meeting since the January of 2014 loss) makes this revenge angle a huge one here. The Patriots are a fantastic 7-1 SU (and 6-2 ATS) when playing with revenge the past three seasons combined. By the way, this is not a short-term success story for the Patriots either. The long-term numbers show a 57-34 ATS mark when playing with revenge. The Pats also are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games and I'll take the current Tom Brady over the current Peyton Manning any day of the week. Manning certainly did not impress in last week's win over the injury-plagued Steelers and now he takes on a Patriots team that has gotten much healthier in recent weeks and the offense has what it takes (especially when healthy) to cause problems for the Denver defense. The Broncos have not covered a game since December 6th when they won big at San Diego. Look for this game to make it 6 straight games for Denver without a cover as I look for the Patriots to dominate this game on their way to another Super Bowl appearance.
Bruce Marshall
Providence +13.5
With several nailbiters already after just a couple of weeks of league play, compelled to look at capable Big East underdogs such as Providence, especially plus the likely significant points in this one at Nova. Jay Wright's Wildcats barely avoided Seton Hall's upset bid at midweek and should be similarly challenged by dangerous Providence, which should be hellbent to atone for three losses to Nova last season (including a bitter two-point setback in the Big East Tourney). Expect an especially-focused effort at the Pavilion from star Friar G Kris Dunn (17.2 ppg), who endured his worst Big East performance on this floor last Feb. 24, scoring just 4 points on 2 of 10 FGs and being guilty of 6 TOs in a heavy Providence defeat.
Wunderdog
Purdue +3
A great battle of Big 10 powers. Purdue is a stellar 3-1 on the road, and the team's depth hasn't really been tested since Rapheal Davis returned from injury a month ago. Purdue defeated Ohio State 75-64 on Thursday as P.J. Thompson scored 10 of his 12 points in the final eight minutes to spark the victory. The Boilermakers are on a 36-16 spread run, including 10-2 ATS on the road. They are also 22-10 ATS in Big 10 play. These teams match up evenly as Purdue has size up front and great three-point shooting, similar to Iowa. Iowa won the first meeting, 70-63, three weeks ago, though the Boilermakers led by 19 late in the first half. The Hawkeyes are 3-7 ATS at home against a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. This shapes up as another close one, and the underdog is 6-2 ATS when they square off.
Primetime Insiders
St. Joseph's -10
Start off with a double digit road favorite... I know this large of a road favorite will scare people off this number but don't let it. This La Salle team does one thing well and that is turning teams over and that is not going to happen against St. Joseph's. On the offensive end St. Joseph's does everything you want in a team: pound the glass with undersized front court, get to the line, and plays unselfishly. La Salle is not going to be able to score as their offense is anemic at best. Most of the time they just go down the court and shoot up a contested 3 resulting in one of the worst offenses in the A10. St. Joseph's should be able to shut down La Salle's offensive attack as they are limiting teams to 29% from downtown. St. Joseph's by 15+.
Evansville -3
A good matchup in the underrated Missouri Valley Conference. Evansville has looked great all year even in 3 losing efforts against Providence, Arkansas, and Wichita State. They are lead up one of the best 1-2 punches in the land in DJ Balentine and Egidjius Mockevicius. The key to Evansville's success in the unselfish basketball they play. They lead all of college basketball in assists and never settle for a bad shot as a result. Their ability to work the ball inside and get an easy look will be the key to this game against a middle of road defense in Indiana St. Evansville is just as good on the defensive side of the ball. Mockevicius is a true enforcer on the defensive glass. They play sound D and as long as they continue to crash the glass should make easy work of Indiana St. Evansville by 9.
Wright State -18
I know it must be tough to take a huge double digit favorite especially with Wright State's lack of offensive firepower but hear us out. UIC is unbelievable bad on the offensive side of the ball turning the ball over on over 20% of possessions! Wright State feasts off teams that can't control the ball and should have a hay day against UIC. I wouldn't be surprised if UIC scores less than 40 points today which means that Wright State only needs 60 to cover. Similar to the offensive side of the ball UIC doesn't play defense and is allowing a pedestrian 35% from the 3 point line. If Wright State can gets some threes to drop early this one could get ugly real fast. Wright State by 25.
Harry Bondi
New England / Denver Under 45
Lots of reasons like the under here today. First and foremost, Denver is built to play low-scoring games right now with noodle-armed Peyton Manning at QB to go along with the No. 1 defense in the league. We're also getting some line value here today since in the first meeting earlier this season the teams combined to score 54 points, which sailed over the total of 43. While that looks like a high-scoring game on paper, look more closely and you'll find that it was a 21-7 game with 12 minutes left and 19 points were scored in the final 4:50 of regulation and overtime. Broncos games are 11-6 to the under this year and we see no reason to buck that trend today.
Scott Rickenbach
Kings at Sharks
Pick: Under
Back to back situation for the Kings and only 1 over has resulted in the 7 prior occurrences for LA this season. Not only are the 2nd night of back to back spots tough on the Kings, this is also a very heated division rivalry and I expect both teams to bring a tight-checking game to the barn tonight. Look for a clogged up neutral zone and not a lot of good scoring chances are likely to be afforded to either team in this one. The Kings have been trending under all the way back to New Year's Eve while the Sharks had held 5 of their past 8 opponents to 2 goals or less before giving up 3 to the Wild in their win over Minnesota yesterday. With this game being a divisional battle, and a heated rivalry, plus the fact that it is back to back for both clubs I look for a tight low-scoring game as neither team wants to push the tempo too much considering the tired legs from last night's games.
Brandon Shively
Utah vs. Washington
Play: Over 158
There is only one way to play this game and that is OVER. Washington has adapted to a fast up and down game that they used to play a few years back. The results have found the OVER going a PERFECT 9-0 their last nine games. In conference play, the lowest final score has been 166 points. They are averaging 90 ppg at home this year led by senior Andrew Andrews who should be a PAC 12 player of the year candidate.
Utah is a team whose defense is down this season, much due to the loss of Delon Wright. They still have several three point shooters along with NBA prospect Jakob Poetl who is a seven footer that the Huskies will not have an answer for.
Only four times this season has Utah had a total set at 150 points or higher. The result is the OVER going a PERFCT 4-0. Utah just scored 92 points against Washington State and the OVER is 9-4 in their last 13 games after scoring 90 points or more in their previous game. Washington is ranked #2 in the nation in possessions per game at 81.9. They are going to push the pace and Utah has no problem matching the pace. I'm looking for a final score in the 86-81 range as this game should cruise OVER.