THE LOGICAL APPROACH
The Jets have now won 5 in a row and 7 of 8 and have not allowed more than 15 points in any of their last 8 games. Their lone loss over this span was at home to Atlanta 10-7 win week 15. In that loss the Jets outgained the Falcons 314 to 238 but rookie QB Mark Sanchez was intercepted three times. The week following that loss the Jets defeated the Colts but only after the Colts pulled most of their starters which renders useless almost any reliance on that game as a guide to what can be expected in this "rematch." The Jets have matured as a team over the course of the season and showed in San Diego that even when they are outmanned in terms of offensive potential the play of their defense can keep them in games. That will be put to the test here as the Colts present a very formidable challenge although the Colts' over reliance on the passing game often bodes well for an outstanding defense. Over the past few weeks, for example, we saw Dallas' defense look unbeatable twice against the one dimensional Philadelphia offense only to be torched by Minnesota's well balanced offense last week. The Jets fared well last week against San Diego primarily pass oriented offense. San Diego had the number 31 rushing offense during the regular season. The only team worse? Yep, Indianapolis averaged just 81 rushing yards per game. Even in last week's win over Baltimore the Colts ran for just 42 yards on 25 carries and gained just 275 total yards for just 3.9 yards per play. There are many similarities between the Ravens and the Jets that go beyond the fact that Jets coach Rex Ryan was the architect of the Baltimore defense in his years as the Ravens' defensive coordinator. Offensively as well Baltimore relies very heavily on the run. But as well as the Ravens fared defensively last week in limiting the Colts to just 20 points, the offense could produce just a single FG. The Jets will continue to do what they do best -- run the football and control the clock. Their best chance for success is to keep QB Peyton Manning and the Colts' offense off the field as much as possible and use their own rushing offense to wear down the Indy defense. In their Playoff wins over both Cincinnati and San Diego the Jets fell behind 7-0. But that was the most by which they trailed in either game. Being down by only one score does not mandate a change in the game plan. But fall behind by two scores or more and things take on a different complexion. The Jets are not build to play from far behind, especially with a rookie QB against an experienced, and underrated, defense. The Colts can afford to be patient knowing that they possess quick strike ability should it come down to that being needed. Although they just mailed it in over the final few weeks of the season the Colts allowed 17 or fewer points in 10 of their first 13 games. This game could go one of two ways. Either the Jets are successful in keeping this a low scoring, competitive game throughout which would enable them to cover and perhaps win the game outright. Or the Colts can get out to a 14 or 17 point lead and force the Jets to pass the ball in playing from behind which would greatly limit the Jets' chances of putting points on the board. But both scenarios make for a low scoring game, something along the lines of perhaps 20-17 if the Jets can keep it close, or perhaps along the lines of 27-10 if the Colts are able to get ahead by a couple of scores or so. Indianapolis' experience edge would tend to favor them in establishing a big lead. But the Colts were not a dominant team this season with half of their 14 regular season wins coming by 4 points or less. The Jets are a confident team but the preferred play in this game looks to be on the Total. An upset would be a surprise but not a shock considering how the Jets have played and it's hard not to respect a team with the game's best rushing offense and top defense. Still, Manning has made plays time and again including this season when he led several fourth quarter comebacks. The call is for the Colts to win 20-16, making the
NEW YORK JETS a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 3 Star Selection
In winning their Divisional Playoff games last week both teams showed little rust from rest but rather displayed the form that for most of the season made this the heavily favored matchup for the NFC Title. Minnesota's 34-3 win over Dallas on Sunday was just as one sided and dominant as had been New Orleans'' 45-14 dismantling of reigning NFC Champ Arizona a day earlier. New Orleans hosts their first NFC Championship game ever and is only in the second such game in franchise history, having lost at Chicago in the 2006 Playoffs. Minnesota is in their first NFC Title game since the 2000 Playoffs when they lost in this game for the second time in three seasons. Both the Saints and Vikings have plenty of offense, most of which comes from the passing game. Saints' QB Drew Brees had an outstanding season that was equaled if not surpassed by Minnesota''s Brett Favre. On the surface many would conclude that with Adrian Peterson that the Vikings have the better ground attack. Yet during the regular season the Saints actually averaged more rushing yards per game than did Minnesota (132 vs. 120). That edge is magnified on a yards per carry basis as New Orleans averaged 4.5 yards per rush to the Vikings' 4.1. Overall the Saints had the NFL's number 1 ranked offense with New Orleans ranked number 5. It's on defense where Minnesota has the decided edge, ranking sixth in allowing just 306 yards per game (New Orleans allowed 358 ypg, number 25). Much of Minnesota's edge is against the run, allowing just 87 ypg (3.9 per rush) to the Saints' allowing 123 (4.5 per rush). This game should be all about offense and not just from scrimmage. As he showed last week, Reggie Bush gives the Saints an outstanding kick return game. Rookie Percy Harvin provides the same potential for Minnesota. Which suggests the return game could set up Brees and Favre with short fields. The series history strongly favors Minnesota as the Vikings have won 8 of the last 9 meetings with New Orleans dating back to 1994. Minnesota has won each of the last 4 meetings, 3 of which were played in New Orleans including a 30-27 win in 2008. The last 4 meetings have also gone OVER the Total as have 7 of the last 9 (with one UNDER and one PUSH). Certainly the indoor conditions of the Superdome will make things easier for the offense and since the Vikes also play in a domed stadium they will not be at a disadvantage and should also be better able to deal with the noise from the partisan Saints' crowd. Much may be made of the Vikings' road woes this season, splitting 8 such games but losing each of their last 3 road games of the regular season at Arizona, Carolina and Chicago. But it must be noted that after starting 10-1 and wrapping up their Division so early there really was no sense of urgency in those road games. Sure, the Vikes might have wrapped up the number two seed earlier or have had a chance for the top seed but the fact is that the Vikes had attained the goal of making the Playoffs and as an elite team were getting the host's best effort in front of their home fans especially with each of those three games being played on either Sunday night or Monday night. This game handicaps as a shootout. The Vikings scored at least 27 points in 14 of their 17 games, scoring 30 or more 11 times. New Orleans scored at least 27 points 12 times and scored at least 35 points in 8 games. The two offenses have to be rated as even with Minnesota having an edge on defense. Is that edge enough to overcome New Orleans' playing at home? And which will prevail -- Minnesota's series history against the Saints or Minnesota's past failures in NFC Title games? This should be a most entertaining contest and the team with the ball last has an excellent chance to move his team down the field. The opening line translates to a 28-24 New Orleans win. And while a 4 point win by either team seems reasonable it''s hard to envision the losing team scoring just 24 points. Minnesota looked at the signing of Favre as the missing component of a run to the Super Bowl. Both teams are very talented, especially on offense. But Minnesota has the more proven defense and better overall balance and despite their late season road woes are more than capable of winning on the road. Favre will have more than a small amount of fans cheering for him. Getting points, especially more than a FG, is a bonus. The call is for Minnesota to pull the minor upset and defeat the Saints 34-27, making
MINNESOTA a 3 Star Selection
OVER a 4 Star Selection
POWERSWEEP
The AFC comes full circle here. Having already dispatched CIN in the Wildcard Rd the Jets have the opportunity to take out the other team that essentially gifted them a playoff spot. IND had a 15-10 lead after the 1st drive of the 2H in the 1st meeting when they pulled Manning and the rest of the starters. At that point IND had 16-7 FD and 254-115 yd edges and the Jets TD came when Brad Smith returned the 2H’s opening KO 106 yds for a TD. However the combo of Jones and Greene had 68 yds (4.5) rushing in the 1H. The Jets #1D sk’d Indy QB Painter on his 2nd series forcing a fumble which they ret’d to take the lead and the run D took over. LW was a story of 2 halves for the Jets as while they were outgained 212-99 in the 1H they allowed just 1 TD as SD missed 2 FG’s. In the 2H the Jets had a 163-132 yd edge and held SD to just 9 yds on their 1st 4 drives of the 2H. IND quieted doubters about how ready they would be after shutting it down for the final 2 games. The Colts #18 defense used their impressive team speed to hold Rice to just 67 yds (5.2). The AFC East and South matched up vs each other TY with the Jets going 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS while IND went 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS. Surprisingly there were no common foes outside of these matchups. The Jets are 7-3 SU and 7 ATS on the road with a 23-18 avg score and are 5-2 SU and ATS as a dog (19-16). IND is 8-1 SU and 4-5 ATS at home with a 23-28 avg score and 14-1 SU and 10-5 ATS as a fav (27-18). Manning is 4-1 SU/ATS vs a Rex Ryan defense avg 227 ypg (62%) with a 9-2 ratio.
Rex Ryan took the same formula that got the ‘08 Ravens into the playoffs with a rookie HC and QB by relying on their #1 rush attack and #1 D. Sanchez is the 1st rookie QB to start and win the first 3 gms of a yr (202 ypg, 59%, 4-2) S/’69. He then avg’d 169 ypg (49%) with a 6-14 ratio in his next 7 starts (1-6 SU/ATS) until Ryan got involved with the “color code system.” Since then he’s avg 131 ypg (59%) with a 2-4 ratio except for the TB gm (knee sprain) but LW joined BAL’s Flacco as the only rookie QB’s to win 2 Playoff games. The Jets boldly traded for Edwards and he still has a tendency to drop balls (49% catch rate with NYJ). Cotchery is back to being a solid #2 and TE Keller rounds out a decent rec unit. The backbone of the #20 offense is RB’s Greene and Jones who along with SD’s Tomlinson and STL’s Jackson are the only active RB’s with 5 str 1,000 yd seasons. Jones finished 3rd in rushing TY thanks to a formidable OL that has started all 16 together. Greene has been the star of the playoffs leading the league with 263 (6.0). Over the L6 reg season games the D held opposing QB’s to a comb 33.7 passer rating with 1,054 ypg (43%) and a 1-10 ratio. The Jets are the 1st tm to lead the NFL in scoring D, total D and rush offense since the 1986 Bears. The best NFL CB in ‘09 has been Revis who leads the NFL with 37 pd and hasn’t all’d an opposing WR to have more than 50 yds TY. The ILB’s are Scott and Harris who didn’t miss a beat with the loss of NT **** in run support. While the Jets are just 18th in sks it’s misleading as they own an 8-17 ratio. Shaun Ellis is a rare active pass rushing DE in a 3-4 (hybrid) and has 6.5 sks. Pouha has done a good job taking over at NT since the loss of **** and NYJ have all’d 93 ypg rush (3.6) since 10/18 (BUF). The Jets ST are an avg group (#14) which isn’t bad as they’ve cycled 7 P’s thru since the draft and aren’t the same with the loss of Washington.
Despite the outcry over the loss of “a perfect season” the fact is that the Colts have 7 str seasons of 12 or more wins which is a record. Manning has won his 4th MVP which he earned with 5 str come-from-behind wins TY and the Colts are the only team in the NFL with DD wins and playoff berths since realignment. What makes this season standout is the changeover at WR with 2nd yr WR Garcon and rookie Collie taking over for departed Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez who sprained his knee in Wk 1. Despite their inexperience IND finished in the Top 10 (9th) in ttl offense for the 10th time in 11 yrs. The Colts have 5 players in the top 100 for rec’s TY with Wayne and Clark tying for 5th with 100 rec’s. Clark is the 2nd TE in NFL history with 100 rec’s and the Colts offset their #32 run game with Addai in the short pass game (51 rec, 6.6). They have struggled in the short yardage area which is where Brown was supposed to help out but he’s been bothered by a shoulder inj. IND’s 13 sks all’d is the 4th time in 5 years the Colts OL has given up 15 or fewer sks. They didn’t have a 100 yd rusher in any game TY and only broke that number as a team 3x’s TY. Despite finishing 25th vs the run (4.3) the D under DC Coyer is improved allowing 112 ypg (4.1) prior to the Jets/Bills. IND also places much more emphasis on spd and sure tackling than other teams. They allowed an NFL best 27 pass plays of 20 or more yds and gave up a 19-16 ratio (3 TD’s vs BUF) which is a big dropoff from LY’s 6-15 ratio. FS Bethea is the only player in the secondary to start all 16 TY and had an All-Pro season. Brackett remains a steady force in the middle but the team doesn’t place much priority on LB’s. Mathis and Freeney combined for 23 sks despite basically resting for 3 games at the EOY. Once again IND struggled on special teams finishing 31st in our rankings due to some very poor return units (22.2 KR, 5.2 PR).
Only twice in the L/12Y has a team pulled B2B road upsets in the 1st two rounds of the playoffs (NYG ‘07 and CAR ‘05). The Jets have matched that feat and are now playing away from home for the 5th time in 7 wks. The Jets have the league’s #1 defense and did hold SD to 14 pts but allowed 344 yds LW. The Colts transformed in the post season and the veteran defense held Baltimore to 12 FD’s in their 20-3 win. The Colts have now gone UNDER in 5 of 6 playoff games as Manning makes very few mistakes. The Jets showed again LW that they will continue to run the ball and chew up the clock and keep Sanchez on a short leash. This sets up well for another low scoring game and we’ll use another of our special 3H totals.
FORECAST: Colts/Jets UNDER RATING: 3*
This game is the matchup the fans were hoping for late in the year when they were competing for the #1 seed. Both teams easily dispatched their foes LW as they took advantage of key injuries. ARZ was running man to man prior to CB Rodgers-Cromartie injury (knee) then Brees (247 yds 72% 3-0) dismantled an undermanned zone defense. MIN’s defense swarmed the DAL OL after LT Adams (calf strain) left. Then DAL shifted protection to the left so the Vikings went after RT Columbo. Romo was held to 63 yds (56%) with a 0-1 ratio in the 2H & DAL only crossed midfield on their initial drive of the 2H. MIN is 4-4 SU & ATS on the road dropping 4 of their L5 ATS. They are 1-1 SU & ATS as a dog losing to PIT but beating GB by 12. NO is 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS at home failing to cover 4 of their L5 ATS in regular season. NO is 14-2 SU & 9-7 ATS as a favorite but has only covered 3 times in that role since Nov. There are 6 common foes here (DET, STL, ARZ, CAR, NYG, DAL) with MIN going 5-2 SU & ATS with a 357-312 yd edge (+6 TO’s) & 28-14 avg score. NO went 5-2 SU & 3-4 ATS with a 401-355 yd edge (-5 TO’s) and a 32-23 avg score.
In ‘08 MIN finished 17th in total off, 25th in pass, 12th in pts and was -6 TO’s. TY behind a 40 yr old QB they finished 5th in total off, 8th in pass, 2nd in pts and were +6 in TO’s. MIN knew they were a veteran QB away from being a serious contender for the Super Bowl. When Favre decided to come out of retirement again they made the highly publicized, but right, move to get him. Favre set a team record with 10 gms of 100+ QBR while personally passing for his most TD’s in a season S/’97, had the fewest int (7) and his best comp % (68.4) in his career. Peterson took some heat for a decline in rushing production (-377 yds from LY) as MIN went from 5th to 12th in rushing. This was partially due to the OL but a MIN also had 110 more pass att’s TY and he more than doubled his rec’s vs LY (21 to 43) which made his overall production +311 yds. Rice benefitted the most out of the addition of Favre with 68 more rec’s and 1,171 more yards than ‘08 as he stayed healthy all yr. He tied an NFL Playoff record with 3 TD rec vs DAL. Harvin finished 2nd to NYG’s Nicks in receiving yds by a rookie and was named Off ROY with a 27.5 KR avg and 2 spec tms TD’s. Their OL isn’t as good as its reputation due to a 1st year Ctr and rookie RT but their 34 sks (15th) is more a factor of Favre taking a sk rather than risk a TO. MIN’s #6 D starts and ends with the DL. Allen finished 2nd in sks as the “Williams Wall” absorbed most of the double tms and allowed him to beat OT’s 1 on 1 for most of the yr.
MIN’s biggest inj of the yr was the loss of MLB Henderson (brkn leg) and while rookie Brinkley is good vs the run he is a weak link in coverage. CB Winfield has played most of the 2H of the yr with a foot inj and while they have a 26-11 ratio overall they only given up 209 ypg (65%) with a 9-6 ratio at home. MIN has our #10 special teams thanks to solid return units (#11 PR/KR) but their KR defense can be exploited (22.6).
While leading the #1 offense TY Brees finished 1st in comp % (70.6), QBR (109.6), TD passes (34) and tied Rodgers and Romo for 2nd with 39 pass plays of 25 or more yds. Brees also spreads the ball around (7 players with 35 or more rec’s TY) which diffuses the defense’s ability to lock onto a single player. Colston is the only player who’s had 1,000 yds rec with Brees at the helm but he’s done it 3 of the L4Y. Henderson is the possession WR but the offense really started clicking with a healthy Shockey who opened up the middle of the field. Meachem was GM Loomis’ preseason breakout player & he didn’t disappoint as his 16.0 ypc was 9th in the NFL. The Saints best previous finish in rushing was 11th in 2003 and TY they came in 6th. The combo of Thomas, Bell and Bush worked despite injuries as Payton rolls with whichever RB he feels will exploit the opposing team. Combined the trio would be 2nd only to Chris Johnson in rushing TY. NO’s OL is a bit overrated with Brees being sacked 20 times (4th, 1 every 27.2 pass att’s) due to his lightning quick release. MIA and DAL were the only tms with deep and physical secondaries who were able to jam NO’s rec’s and throw off the timing enough for the edge rushers to get to Brees (9 sks). Gregg Williams led the Saints to the #9 D after the 1st 5 wks but inj’s caught up to them and they finished the year 25th all’g 384 ypg and 23 ppg over the final 11 wks. NO has played much of the season without its starting CB’s Greer and Porter with ******* having growing pains as a nickel CB. Sharper tied for the NFL lead with 9 int and MLB Vilma proved that he is a cornerstone player here. NO did lose DE Grant (triceps) vs CAR but will have DT Ellis here and with him in the lineup NO only all’d 103 ypg (4.2) rushing. NO has our #30 ST’s due to 4.6 PR avg (31st) and the KR coverage unit giving up 24.5 (29th).
Both teams dominated as each won by 31 points last week. The Vikings of course won as our Playoff GOY and despite some recent road woes we’ll ride them again. The QB’s are the two leaders in pass efficiency and while Favre seems to relish improvising, Brees has only been sacked more than twice in only 2 games. The Vikings DL was relentless against Dallas and have to expect them to be able to get to Brees. While most agree the Saints #1 offense is potent, the Vikings are not far behind with the #5 unit. On the defensive side of the ball Minnesota has the league’s #6 stop unit while the Saints are ranked #25 & have allowed 402 ypg the last 6. You need an experienced QB to win on the road and Minny has one.
FORECAST: Minnesota (+) over NEW ORLEANS RATING: 2*
THE GOLD SHEET
INDIANAPOLIS 24 - NY Jets 10—As we’ve mentioned countless times in
postseasons past, results of regular-season meetings are no foolproof indicator
of what will transpire in playoff rematches. And we think we can safely say that
at least the dynamics of the Week 16 regular-season meeting between the then
14-0 Colts and Jets at Lucas Oil Stadium won’t be replicated in the AFC title
game. Although it is worth noting that Indy was hardly cruising to an easy win
in the 3rd Q when HC Jim Caldwell decided to pull several of his starters,
including QB Peyton Manning, with a mere 15-10 lead. You know the rest, with
Rex Ryan’s defense ruthlessly exposing Manning raw rookie reliever Curtis
Painter, forcing key takeways that New York was able to convert into scores
(including a fumble return TD by DE Marques Douglas) in an eventual 29-15 win
that revived the Jets’ flagging playoff hopes and simultaneously put to the
sword the Colts’ hopes of an unbeaten regular season.
Now, Indy’s starters have a chance to finish the job they started four weeks
ago, but it won’t be easy. Even though the Colt defense did a good job keeping
the limited Raven attack in check last week, the Colts’ undersized front seven
was still susceptible to smashmouth tactics TY when allowing 126 ypg and 4.3
ypc to rank a mere 24th in rush defense, a telling stat considering how some of
Indy’s foes mostly abandoned the run when in catchup mode during the regular
season. And the Jets gashed the Colts for 202 YR in that late December
meeting behind vet Thomas Jones (105 YR) and emerging Iowa rookie Shonn
Greene (95 YR). But if Indy can indeed succeed in somewhat slowing the Jets’
infantry (which continued its pounding ways last week at San Diego when
gaining 169 YR), New York’s alternatives with rookie QB Mark Sanchez are
limited. As the season progressed, the Jets were not able to expand their
playbook (other than integrating some wildcat formations with WR/QB Brad
Smith) with Sanchez, who, after self-destructing numerous times en route to
tossing 20 picks, has been able to work off of the ground game and has thrown
only 18 passes pg in the Jets’ 4-game win streak. Although the N.Y. has
spotted both of TY’s playoff foes 7-0 leads, it is not an offense built to flourish
in catch-up mode.
Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that Manning has had plenty of experience (and
success) dealing with Ryan’s previous Baltimore stop units, and he was en
route to another stellar game vs. Ryan’s Jets in the Dec. 27 meeting, having
completed 14 of 21passes for 192 yards before being pulled. The combo of
excellent protection (Indy allowed an NFL-low 14 sacks) and Manning’s
trademark quick release have historically diffused Ryan’s pressure tactics. And
despite the Colts’ own spotty ground attack that barely registered last week vs.
the Ravens, it’s worth noting that Manning was still able to control the pace and
flow of the game with his pinpoint passing against another rough stop unit
similar in design to the Jets.
Finally, don’t forget the extended results history in the conference
championship round, in which almost half (38 of 78) of the games since the
merger have been decided by 14 points or more. Given the Jets’ limitations,
similar to the Ravens and their then-rookie QB Joe Flacco vs. the Steelers in
LY’s AFC title game, the more-competent Colt offense is apt to extend the
margin and gain revenge for that misleading Dec. 27 loss.
(09-Jets 29-INDY 15...I.18-17 N.44/202 I.24/64 I.18/32/1/213 N.12/19/0/91 N.0 I.1)
(09-NY Jets +4 29-15...SR: Indianapolis 40-28)
Minnesota 26 - NEW ORLEANS 24—First-ever NFC title game in New
Orleans. And, with multiple strong edges appearing on both sides, the value
appears to be in taking the points.
Both QBs have had superior seasons and have been great leaders for their
teams. Both teams have outstanding arrays of receivers. Both teams have
speedy, potential game-breakers (Reggie Bush for the Saints; Percy Harvin for
the Vikings). Both teams are now healthier in the secondary after dealing with
midseason injuries. Both teams have defenses led by well-respected
coordinators—Gregg Williams of the Saints and Leslie Frazier (has interviewed
seven times for head coaching jobs) of the Vikes. And neither team has a solid
core of players who have been to the promised land of the Super Bowl.
One big plus for the Minnesota is that it knocked off arguably the hottest team
in the NFC—big and physical Dallas—which had ended the Saints’ 13-game,
season-opening winning streak and which then won its next three games by a
combined 75-14 count. It turns out that HC Brad Childress made the right move
in giving his players nearly a week off after the regular season. The Vikes last
week were alert and quick on their feet vs. the Cowboys. Likewise, New
Orleans made the right move in holding out its banged-up players in lateseason
games to get them ready for postseason.
There are few knocks here on Sean Payton’s cleverly-coached Saints,
seeking New Orleans’ first Super bowl appearance. But the strengths of the
underdog Vikes should not be overlooked. Brett Favre (now 37 TDs vs. only 7
ints. TY) has supplied Minnesota with the postseason confidence and bravado
it has lacked. Favre has helped elevate 6-4 WR Sidney Rice (83 recs., 8 TDs
in reg. season) into a Pro Bowl talent. TE Visanthe Shiancoe (11 TDC) has
developed into a premier red-zone target. Harvin is a contributor as a receiver,
runner and returner (8 total TDs). Ryan Longwell is the most reliable kicker on
the field. RB Adrian Peterson (1383 YR, 18 TDR) has the potential to dominate
any game, and mate Chester Taylor is among the top third-down backs in the
league. On defense, Minny’s outstanding pass rusher, DE Jared Allen (14½
sacks) is opposite N.O.’s weak link on the OL, LT Jermon Bushrod.
For sure, the Saints’ have myriad strengths of their own—Brees’ quick reads,
Bush’s multiple abilities, WR Colston, ball-hawking (former Minny) S Sharper,
and possibly TE Shockey (check his knee injury). But not enough to keep us
believing that Favre—with all his weapons and experience, in dome conditions
(the same dome, by the way, where Favre won his Super Bowl title with G.B.)—
doesn’t have an excellent chance to steal a victory
THE SPORTS MEMO
NY Jets at Indianapolis -7.5 O/U 40.5
Recommendation: #302 Indianapolis -7.5
Methodical yet deadly, the Colts once again did exactly what they needed
to do to win. The offensive numbers were far from gaudy but with Peyton
Manning under center, there is no better team when faced with a must
score that can deliver the goods with such consistency. Defensively, the
bend-but-don’t-break style we discussed last week was in full effect as
Baltimore was held under 100 yards on the ground while Joe Flacco threw
two interceptions. Somewhat concerning was Indy’s inability to run the
football – an issue certainly relevant against the Jets – but they are one
of a few teams that can win without balance. Against San Diego, the Jets
walked away with a fourth quarter comeback win, keeping within striking
distance with a strong run game and forced turnovers. After recording
only 11 yards on its first four drives, New York kept plugging away and
essentially waited for San Diego to implode (two missed field goals). As
for this weekend’s matchup, it is no question worrisome that Indianapolis’
style doesn’t always equate to wins by margin. But from a trend perspective,
the Colts have covered every game they have won outright in the
playoffs with Manning under center (8-0 SU/ATS). The number may seem
a tad high but enough factors have us leaning towards the home chalk.
Minnesota at New Orleans -4 O/U 52.5
Recommendation: #304 New Orleans -4
Home field was in full effect last week as both New Orleans and Minnesota
dominated their respective games from start to finish. The Saints
showed no signs of rust after their supposed late season decline,
marching up and down the field at will against Arizona. Even more
impressive was a defense that for a majority of the season was “situationally
good” – getting key stops when needed and forcing plenty of
turnovers (third in the NFL with 26 INTs). That doesn’t mean we aren’t
somewhat concerned as Minnesota has the ability to move the ball
a number of ways. The Vikings didn’t have to do much last week as
Dallas essentially handed them the game. Not one Dallas drive tallied
more than 30 yards after the first quarter. The key here is how well
Minnesota’s secondary stacks up against the league’s most prolific
passing outfit. Against Aaron Rogers (twice) and Kurt Warner, the Vikes
were cut apart to the tune of 74-of-110, 67% for 311 ypg. While recent
trends suggest home field doesn’t mean as much in the NFL, you can’t
discredit either of these two squads’ turf. New Orleans has been all but
unstoppable in front of its home crowd and in this price range, we feel
comfortable laying the points with what we feel is the better team
PLAYBOOK
INDIANAPOLIS over NY Jets by 8
It’s déjà vu all over again. Like Baltimore last year, the Jets have made it all
the way to the AFC title game behind a rookie head coach and quarterback.
Ironically, New York coach Rex Ryan – who boastfully proclaimed several
weeks ago that his team should be favored to win the Super Bowl – was an
assistant on the 2008 Ravens team that fell one game short of reaching the Big
One. However, in order to book a flight to Miami for February 7th, the Jets will
have to slug it out with the Colts’ starters for a full four quarters on Sunday.
Today’s showdown is a rematch of the December 27th meeting where –
according to countless angry Colts fans–– Indy coach Jim Caldwell foolishly
flushed away a possible perfect season by yanking his starters early, causing a
15-10 Colts lead to self-destruct into a 29-15 Jets win. But despite a general
feeling that the Jets don’t belong in this championship bout, the fact is the
Flyboys enter with 76 yards the better defense and 93 YPG the better rushing
offense. In its simplest form, this matchup features strength against strength…
QB Peyton Manning’s 2nd-ranked pass offense against the Jets’ top-ranked
pass defense. From a handicapping standpoint, though, this is one tough nut
to crack. That’s because the upstart New Yorkers own strong statistical edges
while the ‘technicals’ are stacked against them. Start with this ‘Ugly Stat of the
Week’: the Jets have allowed an average of just 9.4 PPG in their last eight
outings (no more than 15 points in any game) and the Colts are a moneyburning
5-35-2 ATS in games in which they score less than 20 points behind
Peyton Manning, including 1-19 ATS at home! On the flip side, our database
tells us that road teams off a playoff upset win are 26-47 ATS and, even worse,
road teams in title games off back-to-back road games are only 1-8 SU and
ATS versus an opponent that allowed less than 20 points in its last game. Yes,
Indianapolis lost, 41-0, to the Jets in a 2002 playoff game but NFL MVP Manning
is 5-2 SU and ATS at home in the playoffs, including 4-0 SU and ATS versus a
less than .700 opponent (every win by 15 or more points). With conflicts
abounding on both sides, we’re going to exercise some discretion and watch
where the number settles on another Jets game before pulling the trigger
Minnesota over NEW ORLEANS by 3
Okay, let’s see how QB Drew Brees and his offense performs against
a REAL defense. Last Saturday, the Saints faced off with an Arizona
stop unit that had been torched for 493 total yards (423 through
the air) and 35 second half points by Green Bay – and the result was a
predictable 45-14 New Orleans romp. But today they must move the ball
against a Minnesota ‘D’ that limited Dallas to just 248 yards while forcing
three turnovers, registering six sacks and pitching a second half shutout.
In fact, the Vikings are the only team left in this season’s NFL Final Four
with both a Top 10-ranked defense AND offense. Hosting their first NFC
Championship tilt in franchise history, the Saints find themselves in a ‘good
news, bad news’ scenario here. First, the good news: home teams in title
games with the better win percentage are 28-14 ATS if they’re not laying
double-digits. However, the bad news is much worse: teams in title games
that scored 36 or more points in their previous game are 1-10 SU and ATS
as a dog or favorite of less than seven points. Ouch! The Purple Gang has
certainly put the hammer down lately in this series, going 8-1 SU in the
previous nine games, including 4-0 SU and ATS the last four. With the
current line at New Orleans -4, our database points out that Minnesota
QB Brett Favre is a near-perfect 3-0-1 ATS on the road as a playoff
favorite or dog of less than 6 points. And how about this little nugget?
The last time the Vikes took points this season was back on November
1st when they beat the Packers in Green Bay, 38-26, as 3.5-point dogs.
Still, Minny will have to overcome several negatives to make its way
back to the Super Bowl for a 5th appearance: road teams in championship
games off a win of 30 or more points are 0-4 SU and ATS while home
teams in NFC championship games are 21-8 SU and 18-11 ATS. The
bottom line is we’ll take a vastly more experienced playoff signal caller in
Favre – who’s making a homecoming of sorts to this deep south venue –
to outduel Brees and deliver a conference championship to Viking nation.
The Saints enjoyed a terrific season but considering the last NFC No. 1
seed to reach the Super Bowl was the 1999 Rams, purple reigns in the
Big Easy tonight.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS
4.5 STAR Minnesota and New Orleans Under 53 - This is the case of two offenses that looked invincible last week. That has driven the total higher than it should be here. Quietly, the defensive sides of the ball also dominated those games. Unlike the Cardinals, both these teams do have the ability to make a play to stall a drive. Minnesota dominated Dallas last week, 34-3, running up the score in the process. The Vikings were a 2.5 point favorite with a total of 37 in that game. Minnesota is 0-21 OU (-7.6 ppg) since December 14, 2003 after a game where they covered by at least five points where the total was at least 41 (team=Vikings and p:ats margin>=5 and 41.5<=p:total and 20031214<=date). Minnesota led 17-3 at the half of that game. The Vikings are 0-14-1 OU (-6.5 ppg) since December 14, 2003 when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last game at home (team=Vikings and 10<=p:margin and 7<=p:M2 and p:H and 20031214<=date). They score more than nine points more than expected in that game while the total still stayed under. Minnesota is 0-13 (-7.1 ppg) since December 14, 2003 after they scored more than expected last game which went under (team=Vikings and 0<=date). The Vikings won the battle of turnovers in that game, 3-0. Minnesota is 0-15 OU (-6.6 ppg) since December 14, 2003 after a game which they forced at least one turnover and did not commit any if they weren't a TD+ dog in that game(team=Vikings and p:turnovers=0 and p:TOM<=-1 and p:line<7 and 20031214<=date). Over the last several seasons, Minnesota has not been able to duplicate a big scoring day at home the next week. The Vikings are 0-7 OU (-7.8 ppg) since December 14, 2003 on the road the week after scoring 34+ points at home (team=Vikings and A and 34<=points and p:H and 20031214<=date). New Orleans also did not commit any turnovers last week in their win against Arizona. The Saints are 0-9 OU (-10.1 ppg) since October 11, 1992 as a home favorite the week after a win in which they committed no turnovers (team=Saints and HF and p:turnovers=0 and p:W and 19921011=37 and total10 and p:margin+pp:margin+ppp:margin=8 and p:day=Sunday and date>=19951217). Having played Saturday the week before, the Jets had an extra day rest before the San Diego game, which had a total of 42.5. New York is 0-11 (-13.0 ppg) since October 19, 2003 after a game that went under which they had extra rest for (team=Jets and p:U and 6<=date). The Jets were trailing, 7-3, after the third quarter of that game before prevailing. The League is 0-7 OU (-12.6 ppg) since December 19, 1999 as a road dog after a win on the road as a 6.5+ point dog in which they were losing or tied at the end of the third quarter (AD and p:AW and 6.5<=p:line and p:M3<=0 and 19991219<=date). New York scored slightly less than expected in that win. The Jets are 0-9 OU (-8.8 ppg) since September 11, 2000 the week after a win on the road in which their dps was negative if they didn't win the second half by more than 10 points (team=Jets and p:AW and p:dps<0 and p:M4-p:M2<12 and 20000911-14 and 10<=p:M3 and p:sacks<2 and 20031214<=date). New York has controlled the ball for 32:08 a game this year. The Colts are 0-7 OU (-13.3 ppg) since September 18, 2005 at home when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date, if there was less than 600 passing yards last game (team=Colts and H and 32*60<=Average(o:time of possession@o:team and season) and 20050918<=date and p:PY+po:PY<600). The game plan we described at the beginning of this writeup is exactly what the Colts did last week. Baltimore is the most similar team in the league to the Jets, a smash-mouth, run-first, rely on defense throwback. Indianapolis took care of business, 20-3. Expect a similar result. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: INDIANAPOLIS 20, NY Jets 6
SPORTS INSIGHTS
New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Public is solidly with Indianapolis, with almost 60% of the bets taking the playoff-experienced Colts. The line opened at Jets +7, but the general consensus of bets taking the Colts has pushed the line to Jets +7.5. If you shop around, you can find Jets +8 at several reputable sportsbooks. There is some decent value based on the line move from the key number of +7 all the way to +8. The line has even ticked to Jets +8.5 at one or two books, but you should be careful about what "vig" you pay at that line.
The Colts almost had a perfect season, before coasting in for a few meaningless losses to end the season. The Jets were the last team to claim a playoff spot. Although the Jets quietly eked into the playoffs in the last game of the regular season, their good defense and solid running game are helping them make some noise in the playoffs. The NFL's best defense, getting +8 points, is a solid value.
This match-up is similar to other games where one team has more of a "powerhouse" reputation. The Colts certainly have the ability to blow out the Jets. However, historically -- more often than not, the game ends up being closer than expected. The Jets have the defense and running game to play with the Colts. Let's "Bet Against the Public" and take the streaking Jets +8 points.
New York Jets +8
Randall the Handle
Jets @ Colts
Peyton Manning is amongst the best to ever play the quarterback position. He is a master of his craft. A puppeteer extraordinaire. A precision passer with an educated arm. It’s no wonder that he just won an unprecedented 4th Most Valuable Player award. Just seeing #18 march onto the field exudes confidence to all that are around him and fear into all those that lineup opposite him. Well, almost all. The Jets have become fearless. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, they have an undeniable karma about them. More importantly, Coach Rex Ryan has the Jets believing that they are indestructible and recent play is proof, in case of any doubters. After sputtering to a 5-6 start, this New York squad kicked into another gear at the end of November. Winners of seven of eight since then, the Jets bought into the most prototypical football formula of running the ball and playing good defence. In those eight games, including playoffs, the defence has allowed a measly 75 points. That’s an average of 9.3 per game. While we can’t reasonably expect the Jets to hold this talented Indy bunch to less than double-digits, we can expect them to make the Colts work for every point they do tally. If the Jets could hold the AFC’s top scoring team - the Chargers with 454 on the year - to a mere 14 points, they should be able to contain Peyton and Co. to an output that is comfortable for our purposes. Taking points, the Jets have excelled with eight covers in past 10 while also covering seven of their last eight games overall. Of course, running the ball effectively will be key and with an offensive line that features four first-round picks and its top ranked running offence this season, New York can succeed against Indy’s undersized run stoppers. Conversely, the Colts running game is atrocious. It’s great that the Colts can rely on Manning’s passing prowess to move the ball but an aggressive Jets defence and the amazing cover skills of Darrelle Revis may make the Colts too one dimensional for this type of opponent. Joseph Addai has done very little this season and is largely responsible for Indianapolis’ 32nd ranked ground game. While there is concern over the inexperience and current abilities of Jets QB Mark Sanchez, he is being asked to simply manage the game while allowing the strengths of his team to pave the way to success, ala Trent Dilfer and the 2000 Ravens. The discrepancy from top seeded teams to lower seeds is not as great as it was in previous eras. The past five seasons have produced a Super Bowl participant that played in the first round of the playoffs (Steelers in 2005, Colts in 2006, Giants in 2007, Cardinals in 2008). Having this zealous group get there would not be a huge surprise and having these abundance of points to play with, makes our selection all that more attractive.
TAKING: NY Jets +8 RISKING: 2.2 units to win 2
Vikings @ Saints
The closest New Orleans has come to a Super Bowl has been the nine times it has hosted one. The Saints are one of just five teams to never play in a Super Bowl (along with the Browns, Texans, Jaguars and Lions). Now, just a mere 43 years into their existence, the opportunity knocks. The only thing that stands in the way of an inaugural trip is the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikes have had an impressive year, led by the resurgence of QB Brett Favre. Favre has performed well for his newest team, aided by the dazzling play of receivers Sidney Rice and rookie standout, Percy Harvin. The top-seeded Saints were outstanding. They were 13-0 until a visit by the Cowboys ended their undefeated streak in mid December. New Orleans led the NFL with 510 points scored, 9th most in NFL history. With QB Drew Brees at the helm, the Saints were tops in yards per game (403.8), were 4th in passing yards per game (272.2) and 6th in rushing offense (131.6). The host was the only team in team in the NFL to rank in top six in both running and passing categories. Offensively, Favre vs. Brees has the makings of a classic quarterback duel. However, there are concerns on both sides. The Saints did not finish well. They lost their final three games and looked very ordinary in doing so. But it appears that Sean Payton knew what he was doing as he rested many of his starters, got a few physical practices out of them and then with the return of several injured players, the Saints stepped up and whooped the dangerous Cardinals. A bigger concern lies with the Vikings being on the road. Minnesota was perfect at home with a 9-0 mark including last week’s dismantling of the Cowboys. Leaving Minneapolis was a different story. The Vikings were 4-4 in road games this season but wins occurred early against the woeful Browns, Lions and Rams. Minnesota’s final five away games resulted in four losses, including final three at Arizona, Carolina and Chicago. As with all teams, there are pros and cons that could sway our choice but there is an ‘X’ factor that ultimately tips our hand to the home team. Safety Darren Sharper ball hawking abilities make him an impact player that can change the complexion of any game in a hurry. This season, Sharper had a league-leading nine interceptions, in addition to having three returned for touchdowns. Most importantly is his familiarity with this day’s opponents. Sharper played with Brett Favre in Green Bay for the first eight years of his career. As luck would have it, Sharper found himself in a Vikings uniform for four years before the being let go and winding up here. His knowledge of both Favre and the Vikings systems will play a significant role in deciding this one. Enough to have the Saints marching into Miami for their first Super Bowl appearance.
TAKING: New Orleans –3½ RISKING: 2.1 units to win to 2
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +3½ over NEW ORLEANS
The Saints are definitely tough to beat and they did a complete number on the Arizona Cardinals and were not rattled one bit when the Cardinals scored on the first play from scrimmage. They have home-field advantage and an advantage it is for sure. Having said that one cannot overlook the number the Vikes did on the Dallas Cowboys, a team that looked as good as any team in the playoffs and appeared to be peaking at the right time yet the Vikes made them look like nothing. One also must wonder how much that game the Cardinals played the previous week against Green Bay took out of Arizona. Watching and hearing the Vikes all week on TV or radio one gets the sense that this squad is very loose and very confident. They’re certainly no strangers to a dome stadium and that is a major plus for them indeed. This is a tough game for sure to handicap, as no result would surprise anyone and a strong case can be made for both sides. However, the Vikes still have Adrian Peterson, its defense is vastly superior to the Saints and again, that complete dismantling of the Boys sticks out a lot more than the Saints dismantling of the Cardinals. I’m skipping this one but if I had to I’d play the Vikes. Play: Minnesota +3½ (No bets).
N.Y. Jets +8 over INDIANAPOLIS
Isn’t it ironic that these two will meet to see who represents the AFC in the Super Bowl? Indianapolis was one of the two teams that apparently “laid down” to let the Jets get in as oppose to opening the door for Pittsburgh or Houston. The other team was the Cincinnati Bengals and we all know what happened to them. Remember, “be careful what you wish for”. Well now the Colts will get its wish, as they’ll play the Jets and frankly, this line is both inflated and out of whack. The Colts have Peyton Manning and he needs no introduction. However, they have no running game whatsoever, its defense is average at best and despite a great regular season, a close look shows a team that beat two playoff teams all season. One of those wins was a 35-34 win over the Patriots in that now famous “fourth and 1“ call by Belichik and the other was a 17-15 win over Baltimore. The Colts could have easily lost both those games but even so, they won them by a combined three points. Now they’re going to give away eight points to the Jets? Are you kidding? First, Wild Card teams that keep advancing have a great history in this league of not bowing out. The Jets pound the ball and they’re relentless in doing so. They also have a great defense and it’s worth repeating that a great running game combined with a great defense is the best recipe for winning and it always has been. Mark Sanchez is getting better with each passing game and if you think the pressure will get to him you’re wrong. This is a guy that starred for the USC Trojans and played more than a few big games in front of 80,000 or more. Lastly, the Jets lost only twice all year by more than the points offered here and the last time that occurred was in November. Not only can the Jets stay well within this range they can pull off the upset. Fate is a funny thing, isn’t it? Play: N.Y. Jets +8 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Vernon Croy
New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Under 39.5
The Colts come in against the best defense in the NFL and also against one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Jets are averaging just 147 pypg this season as they depend on running the ball which will only help this game go Under the posted total as the clock ticks away. The Jets game plan is to grind out this game and make it low scoring because their offense does not have the weapons to trade points with the Colts. The Jets defense has allowed an average of just 258 ypg this season and opponents are averaging just 9.3 ppg against them over their last 3 games played. The Colts have also been very strong defensively at home this season with opponents averaging just 17.7 ppg against them and just over 328 ypg. Four of the Jets last four games as an Underdog of +3.5 to 10 points have gone under the posted total. Take the Under 39.5 as your free NFL play for Sunday.
Tony George
New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: New York Jets +7.5
There are 2 glaring stats that are the foundation of all handicapping rules that I ignored last week that KILLED me last week as I took the Chargers over the Jets and got beat by the Books.
The Jets have the better running game (#1 in the NFL) and the better defense (#1 in the NFL), with two shutdown corners and a blitz happy scheme devised by head coach Ryan that is crushing teams on the road in the playoffs. They are ramming it down people throats running it. You never go against a team, in the playoffs, with the better run game, and better defense, EVER! While on the surface it looks to be a Colts blowout with Peyton Manning as triggerman at home for the Colts, and his counterpart a rookie QB who has looked deplorable at times this year, STILL this line gives me great pause.
Yes the Colts lost at home to the Jets this year, but ONLY after they benched their starters with a 15-10 lead, only to see it disappear and lose out to the Jets, and halt their undefeated streak. So many people figure turnabout is fair play as Manning and company look for revenge at home with the Super Bowl on the line, in what should be a dominating game by a very good team at home this Sunday, some think the Colts will strugge to break a sweat. NO SO FAST FOLKS!
The last 3 games the Colts have averaged 14 ppg on offense, the Jets 26. The last 3 games the Colts have allowed 20 ppg and the Jets 9. The Jets allow less points on the road on defense for the season than the Colts do at home.
Yes Dwight Freeney and company will stack 8 in the box and force young QB Sanchez to throw it, but who is to say that stacking 8 in the box is going to stop the Jets running game? The Colts cannot run it, and while Manning is an expert at beating the blitz, the bottom line is, in a lower scoring game, against capable team like the Jets with some serious credintials to their credit, and nothing to lose attitude, 8 points is a TON of points to win by. The Jets did not get here, nor any team in the NFL get to a championship game by accident. This will not come easy in my opinion, and remember the Ravens, who are average at best across the board, completely shut fdown the Colts in their own house last week.
James Patrick Sports
Iowa vs. Indiana
This Big Ten Conference match-up has flown Over the Total in (7) of (8) meetings and the past (5) of (6) at Assembley Hall have flown Over the Total. Our Sunday selection is Hawkeyes - Hoosiers Over the Total in Big Ten action.
SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PLAYOFFS
N.Y. Jets (11-7 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (15-2, 11-6 ATS)
The upstart Jets, who barely even qualified for the playoffs, now travel to Lucas Oil Stadium for the second time in a month to battle the top-seeded Colts in the AFC Championship Game.
New York shocked second-seeded San Diego on Sunday, scoring two fourth-quarter touchdowns and riding its strong running game and defense to a 17-14 divisional-round upset as a 7½-point road underdog. The Jets had just 262 total yards, but 169 of those came on the ground, with Shonn Greene racking up 128 yards on just 23 carries, including a back-breaking 53-yard TD jaunt that proved to be the difference
New York also benefited greatly from All-Pro Chargers kicker Nate Kaeding going 0-for-3, including misses from 36 and 40 yards. That came a week after the Bengals missed two chip-shot field goals, helping the Jets to a 10-point wild-card win. Rex Ryan’s troops are now a torrid 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games, easily the hottest of the remaining playoff teams.
Indianapolis, coming off a first-round bye despite losing its last two regular-season games SU and ATS, stuffed Baltimore 20-3 Saturday as a 6½-point home favorite. The Colts got a field goal on the opening drive, allowed the Ravens to do the same, then didn’t give up a point the rest of the game. Indy outgained Baltimore by just 5 yards (275-270), but won the turnover battle 4-1, forcing two Joe Flacco INTs and recovering two fumbles, including one from the Ravens’ Ed Reed after he picked off Peyton Manning for the Colts’ lone turnover.
The Colts rushed for just 42 yards, putting the burden on Manning, who finished 30 of 44 for 246 yards and two TDs.
New York is in the playoffs for the sixth time since 1998, but this is its first AFC final appearance since that 1998 campaign, when it lost to eventual champion Denver 23-10 as an 8½-point road pup. The Jets have not reached the Super Bowl since their lone historic appearance after the 1968 season, when – coincidentally – Joe Namath and Co. shocked the Colts 16-7 in Super Bowl III.
Indianapolis is in the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season, and last week’s victory followed two straight years in which it lost its postseason opener --- in the divisional round two years ago and in the wild-card round last year, both to the Chargers. The Colts are seeking their second Super Bowl berth in four years, having dropped Chicago 29-17 as a 6½-point chalk after the 2006 season. Prior to that, the Colts hadn’t reached the Super Bowl since the 1970 season, when the franchise – then based in Baltimore – edged Dallas 16-13 in Super Bowl V.
These rivals have some very recent history, as New York spoiled Indianapolis’ perfect record four weeks ago in the same venue as this weekend’s clash. Colts rookie coach Jim Caldwell had guided his team to a 14-0 record, and Indy had a 15-10 third-quarter lead against the Jets when Caldwell inexplicably pulled Manning and other starters. The Jets went on to post a 29-15 victory as a three-point underdog and are now 4-1 ATS in the last five contests with the Colts.
Despite that outcome, the home team is 7-3-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the SU winner is on a 7-1 ATS tear. Also, the SU winner has covered in all 18 Jets games this year and 20 straight overall, and the winner is 8-0 ATS in Indy’s last eight.
New York rated a below-average 20th in total offense this year (321 ypg), and was slightly better at No. 17 in scoring (21.8 ppg). However, the Jets field the NFL’s most potent running attack, piling up 172.2 ypg in the regular season, while adding 171 and 169 rushing yards in their two playoff wins. Jones (1,402 yards) trailed only the Titans’ Chris Johnson and the Rams’ Steven Jackson in rushing yards, and he also had 14 regular-season rushing touchdowns. Including the playoffs, Sanchez has 14 TDs passes and 21 INTs (his 20 INTs in the regular season were second-most in the league, and he also fumbled 10 times, losing three. In the postseason, Sanchez has thrown two TDs and one INT, and he’s been picked just once in his last four games (all New York wins).
Defensively, the Jets ranked No. 1 in points and yards allowed, at a stifling 14.8 ppg and 252.3 ypg, and they had the No. 1 pass defense (153.7 ypg) thanks largely to shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis (6 INTs). But due to Sanchez’s rookie penchant for INTs, New York posted only a plus-1 turnover margin (17th). That said, the Jets have a plus-2 margin in the postseason, forcing two turnovers in each game while committing just one in each, and they’ve allowed a suffocating average of 9.4 ppg during their current 7-1 run.
Behind the NFL’s second-best passing attack (282.2 ypg), Indy averaged 363.1 total ypg (ninth) and 26 ppg (seventh). Manning threw for exactly 4,500 yards and had 33 TDs against 16 INTs, with five players recording 47 or more catches. WR Reggie Wayne (100 catches, 1,264 yards, 10 TDs) and TE Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1,106 yards, 10 TDs) led the way.
Indianapolis allowed 339.2 ypg (18th) in regular-season action, but that translated into just 19.2 ppg (ninth). The Colts had a nominal plus-2 turnover margin in the regular season. However, as noted above, Indy was plus-3 in last week’s victory over Baltimore.
The Jets are on a plethora of pointspread streaks, including 4-0 overall (all against winning teams), 5-0 on the highway, 6-1 in January, 5-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 4-1 in playoff roadies and 8-2 as an underdog. However, road teams coming off a playoff upset are on a 26-47 ATS purge.
The Colts are on ATS upswings of 6-3 overall, 4-1 against winning teams, 6-2 as a chalk, 8-2 after a spread-cover, 5-2 after a SU win, 5-2 in the playoffs and 5-2 in home postseason tilts.
New York is on “over” runs of 5-1 in January, 6-2-1 against AFC foes and 3-1-1 versus winning teams, and the over for Indianapolis is on surges of 4-1 overall (all within the AFC) and 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win. In addition, the over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in this rivalry. Also, the past four years, the over has gone 12-4 in conference championship games.
Conversely, the under is 7-2 in the Colts’ last nine playoff contests and 7-3 in Indy’s last 10 January affairs, and both teams’ playoff games last week fell well short of the posted totals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS
Minnesota (13-4, 10-6-1 ATS) at New Orleans (14-3, 9-8 ATS)
The top two teams in the conference all season long will square off in the NFC Championship Game, with the No. 1-seeded Saints playing host to Brett Favre and the second-seeded Vikings at the Superdome.
New Orleans, which won its first 13 games of the regular season (8-5 ATS) but went 0-3 SU and ATS down the stretch, showed the bye week was just what it needed last Saturday, throttling fourth-seeded Arizona 45-14 Saturday as a seven-point favorite. The Saints gave up a 70-yard TD run on the game’s first play from scrimmage before scoring 45 of the next 52 points. In easily cashing against the Cardinals, New Orleans ended an 0-5 ATS skid.
QB Drew Brees (23 of 32, 247 yards, 3 TDs) led a turnover-free offense, and Reggie Bush had a TD run of 46 yards and an 83-yard punt-return TD that capped the scoring midway through the third quarter. The defense, meanwhile, forced two turnovers (1 INT, 1 fumble recovery) en route to dethroning the defending NFC champions.
Minnesota had a first-round bye as well and also proceeded to win in surprisingly easy fashion, dominating Dallas in a 34-3 beatdown as a 2½-point home chalk last Sunday. Favre was efficient and effective, going 15 of 24 for 234 yards and a playoff career-high four TDs. The Vikings’ defense beat up on Cowboys QB Tony Romo, sacking him six times while forcing an INT and three fumbles (recovering two) to win the turnover battle 3-0.
The Vikes went on a 1-3 SU and ATS skid in December, costing them a shot to be hosting this week’s game, but they’ve rebounded by outscoring their past two opponents – the Giants in the regular-season finale and the Pokes last week – by a whopping total of 78-10.
New Orleans is in the playoffs after a two-year drought and has reached its second conference title game in four years. The Saints made a run at the Super Bowl following the 2006 regular season, topping Philadelphia 27-24 at home as a 5½-point chalk in the divisional round before getting ripped in chilly Chicago 39-14 as a 2½-point pup in the NFC Championship Game.
New Orleans has never reached the Super Bowl and is fighting some negative recent history within its conference, as the No. 1 seed in the NFC hasn’t advanced to the Super Bowl since the Rams did so in 1999. Additionally, the last time both top seeds qualified for the Super Bowl was back in 1993.
Minnesota, the NFC North champ for the second straight year after a three-year playoff hiatus, bounced back nicely from its short postseason stay last season, when it lost at home to Philadelphia 26-14 as a three-point wild-card pup. The Vikings have reached the Super Bowl four times – losing all four – but haven’t gotten a shot at the Lombardi Trophy since Super Bowl XI, losing 32-14 to Oakland 33 years ago.
Minnesota lost its last two NFC title-game appearances, both as a chalk – 30-27 in overtime to Atlanta as a whopping 10½-point home favorite after the 1998 season, and a 41-0 blowout two years later against the Giants laying three points on the road.
The week before that loss to the Giants, Minnesota bested New Orleans 34-16 in the divisional round as an eight-point home favorite. That contest began a 5-1 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry for the Vikings, including 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four clashes. Most recently, Minnesota squeaked out a 30-27 Monday Night road win as a three-point pup in October 2008. Also, the SU winner has cashed in the last seven meetings, the winner is 4-0 ATS in the Saints’ last four overall and 10-0-1 ATS in Minnesota’s last 11.
New Orleans led the league in total offense (403.8 ypg) and scoring (31.9 ppg) in the regular season. In fact, the Saints scored 30 points or more nine times in the first 13 games and had seven games of 35 points or more, including four in the 40s – a trend they continued with last week’s rout. QB Drew Brees engineered a passing attack that averaged 272.2 ypg (fourth), as he threw for 4,388 yards and a league-leading 34 TDs against just 11 INTs.
Brees was also the top rated QB (109.6), completing an NFL-record 70.6 percent of his passes, and four Saints finished with at least 550 yards receiving, paced by Marques Colston (1,074 yards, 9 TDs). Defensively, New Orleans was not quite as sharp, allowing 357.8 ypg (25th) and 21.3 ppg (20th), but the Saints posted a plus-11 turnover margin, third-best in the NFL, and they are now plus-13 after last week’s effort, the best margin of any of the remaining playoff teams.
New Orleans also led the NFL in defensive TDs with eight, twice as many as any other team.
Favre, at age 40, paced the NFL’s fifth-best total offense (379.6 ypg) in the regular season, with the passing game netting 259.8 ypg (eighth). Favre threw for 4,202 yards (ninth) and had 33 TDs – tied for second with Peyton Manning – against just seven INTs, which tied for the second-lowest total. WR Sidney Rice (84 catches, 1,316 yards, 8 TDs) was the main threat for a team that averaged 29.4 ppg, second only to New Orleans. Rice had three TD catches last week.
RB Adrian Peterson’s numbers were down this year, though he still finished with 1,389 yards rushing and 18 TDs, along with 43 catches for another 436 yards.
Defensively, Minnesota allowed 305.5 ypg (sixth) and 19.5 ppg (10th). The Vikings really made their mark by hounding quarterbacks, as they racked up a league-best 48 sacks, helping them post a plus-6 turnover margin (ninth). Jared Allen had 14½ sacks, the second-best total in the league, and fellow defensive end Ray Edwards (8½ regular-season sacks) had three sacks in last week’s win over Dallas. Minnesota also sported the second-best rush defense, yielding only 87.1 ypg on the ground.
The Saints are on ATS upswings of 4-0 at home against teams with a winning road mark, 11-3 when laying 3½ to 10 points, 6-1 as a home chalk of that same price, 9-3-1 after a spread-cover, 5-2 against winning teams and 5-1 following a SU win of more than 14 points. In addition, home teams in the NFC Championship Game are on a 21-8 SU and 18-11 ATS run.
On the flip side, New Orleans also shoulders negative pointspread streaks of 1-5 overall (all within the NFC), 1-4 as a favorite, 1-4 in January and 2-6 following a SU win. Also, since 1977, teams that scored 40 or more points in the divisional round are 9-4 SU but just 4-9 ATS (1-6 ATS last 7).
The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against winning teams and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 NFC matchups. However, they are in pointspread ruts of 1-4 on the highway, 1-4 as a playoff pup, 1-4 in playoff roadies, 8-17-1 coming off a SU win of more than 14 points and 7-15 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Furthermore, visiting teams coming off a victory of 30 or more points are 0-4 SU and ATS in conference title contests.
Despite its high-octane offense, New Orleans sports “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home (all as a chalk) and 5-2 as a favorite, while the under for the equally potent Vikings is on stretches of 7-2 overall, 5-0-1 in the postseason, 7-2-1 in January, 6-2 against NFC opponents, 36-15-1 after a spread-cover and 35-16-1 following a SU win.
On the flip side, the over for the Saints is on sprees of 4-0-1 in the playoffs, 4-1 in January and 18-7-1 following an ATS victory, and the over is 8-2 in the Vikings’ last 10 starts as a road ‘dog. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in each of the last four clashes, with the 30-27 shootout in New Orleans last season easily clearing the 47-point price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(19) Georgia Tech (14-4, 9-4 ATS) at Florida State (14-4, 4-9 ATS)
Florida State will try to knock off the Yellow Jackets for the fifth straight time – and second time this season – when these ACC rivals clash at the Tucker Center in Tallahassee.
Georgia Tech is coming off consecutive victories over ranked conference opponents, edging North Carolina 73-71 as a 6½-point road underdog last Saturday followed by Tuesday’s 66-64 squeaker against Clemson as a one-point road favorite. Throw in a 71-67 upset of Duke as a seven-point home pup on Jan. 13, and the Yellow Jackets have won three in a row SU and ATS against Top 25 competition, but mixed in with those three wins was an 82-75 loss at unranked Virginia as a two-point road ‘dog. On the season, they’re 5-3 SU and ATS in road/neutral-site games.
The Seminoles snapped a two-game losing skid with last Saturday’s 63-58 home win over Virginia Tech, falling just short as a six-point favorite, the team’s third straight non-cover. Florida State had won its first nine home games this year before tumbling against North Carolina State in its most recent contest at the Tucker Center, losing 88-81 as a whopping 11-point favorite. The ‘Noles put up 80.1 points per game and shoot 50.5 percent from the field at home while giving up 59 ppg (33.6 percent shooting), yet they’re just 1-5 ATS in lined contests in their building.
These teams opened the ACC season against each other on Dec. 20 in Atlanta, with Florida State scoring a 66-59 overtime victory as a 5½-point road underdog. The Seminoles beat Georgia Tech twice last year (once at home, once in the ACC tournament) by a total of six points and failed to cover as a favorite in both games. In fact, while FSU has won four in a row in this rivalry, it is just 2-2 ATS and the four wins have come by a total of 15 points, with the largest margin of victory coming in last month’s overtime contest.
Also in this series, the ‘dog has cashed in 15 of the last 18 meetings, the visitor is 4-0 ATS in the last four and the Yellow Jackets have covered in five of the last seven games overall and each of their last three trips to Tallahassee.
Georgia Tech has failed to cover in seven of its last eight games on Sunday, but is otherwise on positive pointspread pushes of 13-4 overall, 7-2 on the road, 7-2 in ACC play, 11-4 against winning teams, 10-4 following a SU victory and 7-2 after a spread-cover. Conversely, the Seminoles are in ATS funks of 2-7 overall, 1-5 at home, 1-4 in ACC action and 1-5 after a non-cover.
The last five meetings in this rivalry have stayed under the total, and the Yellow Jackets are on “under” runs of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in ACC action, 5-0 against winning teams and 15-7-1 on Sunday. The under is also 16-4-1 in Florida State’s last 21 on Sunday, but the ‘Noles are 6-2-1 “over” in their last nine overall and 4-1-1 “over” in their last six at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH and UNDER
Marc Lawrence
Penn State at Wisconsin
Prediction: Penn State
The Lions take on the Badgers in Madison with same season revenge on their minds this afternoon knowing that the visiting team is 10-2 ATS in Penn State games this season. On the flips side, Wisconsin enters today's fray in the middle of a Michigan/Purdue sandwich knowing they are 1-8 ATS in games after facing the Wolverines and 1-7 ATS in games before battling the Boilermakers. Look for the Lions to settle in under the number here today.
Jack Jones
Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: Over 53
I look at this game and think you are going to see a shootout in New Orleans. The Vikings are putting up 29.6 ppg against teams that allow 22.5 ppg and on the road they give up 23.5 ppg against teams who only give up 20.8 ppg.
The Saints are scoring 33.2 ppg at home this year against teams who allow 22 ppg and they give up 358 yards per game against teams who gain only 329. Basically this game boils down to both offenses being among the best in the league, and the defenses not being bad, just not good enough to stop either one. This one goes over.