Matt Fargo
3* Minnesota Vikings/New Orleans Saints Under
We are getting excellent value in this total. Last week, the Saints/Cardinals had a total of 57 and this week the number is at 53 as of Tuesday morning. That is a difference of just four points which is a small decrease considering we are seeing the Vikings sixth ranked defense compared to the Cardinals 20th ranked defense last week. Minnesota’s offense is better than that of Arizona but not by much and certainly not toward the end of the season when Arizona was clicking on all cylinders. The Cardinals were unable to stop the Saints offense as New Orleans put up 45 points but it did mange just 418 total yards which is just a little above what the Saints average during the regular season. I believe the Vikings have an excellent chance of slowing down that offense. Minnesota had the sixth ranked total defense in the NFL last season while allowing 20.8 ppg which was 13th. For some reason, the Vikings stop unit has caught a lot of flack this season for nothing being as strong yet the defense once again finished sixth overall and the scoring defense actually improved, allowing 19.5 ppg which was 10th in the league. The rushing defense dropped from first to second which is nothing. The Vikings completely stopped the Cowboys whose offense is certainly a strong one. Dallas was limited to only three points and just 248 total yards. The Vikings were able to get to quarterback Tony Romo all day long as they recorded six sacks, five from the defensive line. The Saints are similar in that they do not max-protect very often on passing plays and even though Drew Brees was sacked only 20 times, Minnesota once again will have a good shot at simply overpowering that offensive line. New Orleans held the Cardinals to next to nothing as well and that defense, which played so good early on and was scrutinized late in the season, looks like it is back at full force. The injury situation played havoc on the Saints and there were a lot of key players missing time but those players are healthy once again. These two defenses combined have allowed a total of only 39.4 ppg through the 17 games played and while the offenses are obviously much better, the defenses will be the story again. Neither team will want to get into a shootout and I expect Minnesota to establish a strong running game. The Vikings had trouble running against the Cowboys but the New Orleans rushing defense is much weaker as it allowed 4.5 ypc which was tied for 24th in the league. Doing this will keep the Saints offense off the field as much as possible. Minnesota is 9-1 to the ‘Under’ in its last 10 games coming off a double-digit home win while New Orleans is 7-0 to the ‘Under’ in its last seven games after allowing more than 6.0 yppl in its last game. Also, the ‘Under’ is 21-5 in the Vikings last 26 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 3* Under Minnesota Vikings/New Orleans Saints
BIG AL
Pittsburgh at Seton Hall
Prediction: Seton Hall
We went against Pitt on Wednesday, as we released our strongest play of the year-to-date a 5* play on Georgetown and the Hoyas snapped the Panthers' eight-game win streak. A lot of folks will wager on Jamie Dixon's men to rebound off that loss. But not me. First of all, College Basketball Road Dogs are a dismal 20-42 ATS in the Regular Season vs. foes off a straight-up win, provided our road underdog lost its previous game, which snapped an 8-game (or greater) win streak. And second, in addition to that technical angle, I think the Panthers will struggle to contain Seton Hall's 6'8" forward Herb Pope. Pope is one of only two Big East players averaging a double-double (12.4 ppg; 11.8 rpg) and Pitt has struggled defending strong post players, since it is small inside. Two games back, Louisville's Samardo Samuels scored 25 points on 12-for-20 shooting, and on Wednesday, sophomore forward Nasir Robinson fouled out as he was used, in combination with Gary McGhee, as a primary defender on Georgetown's Greg Monroe. Finally, Pitt's vaunted defense is starting to show some cracks: its last three foes have each shot 46% or better from the field. Take Seton Hall.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Eight of the last ten meetings between these teams, who ranked 1-2 in touchdowns scored during the regular season, have gone Over the total. New Orleans is averaging over 33 PPG on the road while Minnesota allows 23.5 on the road. The Vikings average nearly 30 PPG on the year and the Saints allow nearly three touchdowns per game. Minnesota is 21-9 Over on the road if there last two games came at home.
Play on: Over
Rob Vinciletti
Penn State vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -12.5
The Badgers control all the numbers here and should win this one comfortably. They are a well oiled machine at home once again this year and have won 18 straight vs losing teams including 10-4 ats. They are 8-1 ats vs teams who play good defense and allow 65 ppg or less. Penn.St is 0-5 and 1-4 ats off a conference loss and have historically never played well with home loss revenge with a 14-56 record. The Nittany Lions have lost the last 10 years here and have covered just twice with most losses coming in blowout form. Lay the points with Wisconsin.
LT Profits
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
The New York Jets have surprised many casual observers by reaching this AFC Championship Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts, but many experts are not as surprised.
After all, the Jets led the NFL and total defense and in rushing offense this season, and those are two traits that almost every football champion has, making the New Yorkers the prototypical playoff team. It also helps that their pass defense has been insanely good, as they have allowed an almost unheard of 4.9 yards per pass attempt over the whole year, and they have possibly the best shutdown cornerback in all of footfall in Darrelle Revis.
Of course, they have had some good fortune in that they have been matched up with teams that have a one-dimensional passing offense, which plays right into the Jets defensive strength. They shut down the Chargers passing attack last week and they now get another crack at a Colts team that has the best quarterback in the game in Peyton Manning, but no semblance of a running game, which makes the Jets dangerous here again.
Now there is no doubt that Manning is one of the best ever, and he may single-handedly win this game by himself, but it will not be easy vs. this Jets defense without a running game. Remember that Indianapolis only put up 20 points vs. the Ravens last week, and the Jets play a similar defensive style except that they are better against the pass. Revis should effectively take Reggie Wayne out of this game, which could make the task for Manning more difficult.
If the Colts do win this game, we do not think it will be by more than a touchdown, nor would we be surprised if the Jets shock the world again by earning a trip to the Super Bowl. In either case, taking this many points with the Jets seems like the obvious call.
Pick: Jets +8.5
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Dallas Mavericks @ New York Knicks
PICK: Under 198
I've hit back-to-back-to-back NBA "top play totals" selections, and with such a small card, I've decided to give out today's total as a complimentary play; for a number of different reasons I believe the UNDER in the Mavs/Knicks game is worth a second look:
Dallas (28-15) has split the first four games of its road swing, opening with a 22-point loss to Toronto before wins over Boston and Washington. The Mavericks turned in their lowest-scoring effort in a road game Friday in a 92-81 loss to Philadelphia; I expect a similar offensive letdown this evening.
Remember though, not only has the total gone "under" the posted number in five of Dallas's last six overall, its also gone "under" the posted number in four of its last five on the road.
On the other side of the court: The Knicks are playing a second straight Western Conference contender after losing 115-105 to the Lakers on Friday. New York took a lead into the fourth quarter before the reigning NBA champions took control.
Keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the posted number in 13 of New York's last 19 overall and in 10 of its last 13 at home.
Bottom line: Regardless of location; five out of the last seven times these teams have played against each other the total has gone "under" the posted number; when taking all of the above into account I believe the UNDER is offering fair value in this situation.
Spartan
Wisconsin -12.5 vs Penn St.
I look for a bounce back here from the Badgers after that tug of war they got into earlier this week against Michigan. Now that was an ugly game to watch, or endure is more like it. Frankly Penn State is just coming into Madison at the wrong time in my view. They have not won at Wisconsin since 1995 and this current squad is no threat to break that lousy streak. Defense is what this Badgers team hangs it's hat on and they do it very well. They obviously can struggle putting the ball in the hole but I look for the defense to smother the Nittany Lions throughout the afternoon. Penn State is likely a fairly downtrodden bunch after losing a home game against the mediocre at best Indiana Hoosiers. Now they face three of the next four games on the road and against ranked opposition, morale is likely not exactly high. In the end I expect Bo Ryan to have his kids focused and ready to roll and the home crowd support in that building is always a major boost to the Badgers. Go ahead and lay the 12.5 and watch the Badgers roll.
Scott Delaney
Dallas at N.Y. Knicks
Though Dallas hasn’t exactly looked its best lately, this should be the light at the end of the tunnel, er, end of its road trip.
Considering Dallas has won seven straight and 14 of its last 15 meetings with the 17-25 Knickerbockers, I like my chances in laying the chalk with the better team in this interconference showdown.
The Mavericks have made it no secret they want to close this excursion out with a 3-2 mark after splitting their first four games of this five-game junket.
One of those wins came against the Celtics, so confidence won’t be hard to find; and since Dallas lost to Philly on Friday, I’m betting there’s a yearning to avenge a game it feels it should have won will add to the momentum today.
This marks the Knicks’ second straight game against a Western Conference contender, as they lost 115-105 to the Lakers on Friday after they took a lead into the final frame. But the reigning NBA champions took control late to thwart New York’s upset bid.
Checking the betting numbers, the Mavericks have covered 11 of their last 15 meetings with New York – including three of the last four. Meanwhile, the Knicks are mired in ATS slides of 1-4 as an underdog, 1-5 against winning teams, 0-4 versus the Western Conference and 2-5 overall.
Lay the road chalk in this one.
5♦ DALLAS MAVERICKS
Tony Weston
Very easy victory yesterday as Kentucky takes care of business and cruises to an easy victory over Arkansas.
I’m handing you another winner today as I’m taking the Under in the Vikings-Saints NFC Championship.
Sure, in theory these two have high-scoring offenses, but coming into this game, points have been at a relative premium.
The Vikings have seen the Under come in 6 of their last 8 games, including last week’s Division Round victory over the Cowboys as the teams totaled just 37 points.
The Saints have also seen the Under go 6-2 their last 8 games and have seen the Under come in 4 of their last 5 home games. The Under has also come in 4 of the team’s last 5 games against the NFC and it is 5-2 the team’s last 7 games when installed as a favorite.
The Vikings have stayed Under the Total in 6 straight playoff games and have stayed Under the Total in 7 of their last 10 games in January.
Today, scoring will be at a premium as these two stay well Under the Total.
3♦ VIKINGS-SAINTS UNDER
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Indy Colts. Look, they're just a better team, top to bottom, and the Jets are finally going to get exploited for the team they are... an average team that got hot early in the playoffs. It seems as if every "flavor of the week" gets beat the following week when people start jumping on their bandwagon. Just ask the Cowboys!! Indy is the real deal and I ranked them in the top 5 at the beginning of the season when I was mentioning possible Super Bowl teams. I still believe that. They're finally healthy and playing like a clear cut Playoff contenders despite the absence of a true running game. Joseph Addai and Donald Brown just aren't getting it done, so don't be surprised to see a little Mike Hart mixed in the game plan. The goal for the Colts is simple... run the ball effectively on first or second down and then put it in Manning's hands. Defensively, they have to do a better job of shutting down the Jets' run game while finding ways to score themselves. It may seem rather "vanilla", but it's really that simple for this finely-tuned offense. These playoffs seem to be more about what they did in the first half of the season as opposed to what have you done for me lately. I like the Colts giving the touchdown to the Jets as this one could get ugly early and the Jets aren't the type of team that can exactly score in bunches in the passing game when trailing. Take the Colts as your free play of the day.
4♦ INDIANAPOLIS
Dominic Fazzini
New York at INDIANAPOLIS
They don't get any easier than the Heat's big win over Sacramento on Saturday. That improved my record with my complimentary selections to 61-41-3 over the last 105 days, and I'm going to build on that today with a winning NFL total!
Today's AFC Championship Game is going to be all about defense. The Jets might have the best unit in the league on that side of the ball, and they are going to make things tough not only for Indianapolis' running game, but also for Peyton Manning as well with star cornerback Darrelle Revis providing shutdown coverage on Reggie Wayne.
And the Colts are going to focus on stuffing the run today and making New York rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez step to the forefront and assume primary control of the offense, and I'm not sure he's ready to do that, even after helping his team win two playoff games up to this point.
Indianapolis is the only team to score more than 14 points against New York in the Jets' last eight games, and it managed just 15. And the Colts' defense looked fierce in the team's 20-3 victory over Baltimore last weekend.
The under is 7-2 ATS in Indianapolis' last nine playoff games and 5-2 ATS in its last seven playoff games as a favorite. Take the under today as both teams focus on ball control and play conservatively for much of this game.
3♦ NEW YORK-INDIANAPOLIS UNDER
Drew Gordon
Minnesota +3' at NEW ORLEANS
44-27-3 roll L74 Free Plays (12-4 L16)! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the NFC Championship Game - Vikings/Saints.
When looking at both conferences, this is definately the harder game to cap. Both teams come into contest playing great football on both sides of the ball. Both teams have surging signal callers leading the charge. And both teams have the tools necessary to win this game. So what's the difference? Defense.
While the Saints defense is definately in the upper-echelon of the NFL's stop units this season, there's no question the Vikings are better. Jared Allen and company have been BIG in BIG games this season, and I see no reason to doubt them here. Great games vs. the Packers (twice), and Cowboys in key spots this season are all the proof I'll ever need. Everyone knows the only way to slow either one of these quarterbacks is to apply pressure, and no one is better than the Vikings at that!
Also, I'd argue the Vikings just saw a very similar offense to the one they're going to see this week, and flourished. Cowboys may not be on the Saints level offensively, but they're close. And what did the Vikings do? Limited them to just 3 points, collected 6 sacks, and totally dominated on both sides of the ball. I know critics of this play are touting the Saints win over the Cardinals last week, but I believe Arizona was FAR more flawed than Dallas. Cards defense can be a JOKE at times (as we saw last week), and that will NOT be the case tonight against Minnesota.
Bottom line, I just don't see enough difference between these two teams to lay the points. Nothing less than a field goal separates these two NFC powers, and quite frankly, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Minnesota won outright in this spot. In the end, get ready for one hell of a game, but the right play here is the fiery road dog.
Take Minnesota plus the points over New Orleans in tonight's NFC Title Game.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Karl Garrett
Minnesota at NEW ORLEANS
Hard to make a case for the UNDER in this NFC Championship Game, so the G-Man won't even try.
These teams ranked # 1 and # 2 in a the league in scoring. It is what they do, it is what is going to happen on the field this Sunday at the Superdome.
Minnesota comes into this contest having put up 34, 44, and 30 points in their last 3 games, while New Orleans is fresh off their playoff 45-spot at home against the Cardinals in a game they "called off the dogs" in.
There are just too many offensive weapons on the field to expect the defenses to step up and consistently make stops. Too many "home run" hitters that can put a TD on the board in the blink of an eye.
The series history between the teams also has a decided OVER trend in its favor, as these teams have met 4 times since 2002, and ALL 4 have landed in the OVER column.
With the conditions perfect in the dome, look for Favre and Brees, Peterson and Bush, and all the rest of the dangerous players on this field to put the points on the scoreboard.
OVER we go in the NFC Championship Game!
5♦ OVER
Chris Jordan
Minnesota at NEW ORLEANS
Going to play this NFC Conference Championship OVER the posted number.
I can't see this game failing to get into the 50s, and by doing so, it'll creep its way past the number at some point in the fourth quarter, when one of these teams puts the game to bed.
I'll tell you which team that is inside my premium package, as it's my 600♦ release tonight.
In the meantime, let me explain why this game should soar past the number.
While the highly explosive Saints are on under streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home and 5-2 as a favorite, let's not forget they basically folded the last three weeks of the regular season, and they come in off a dominating performance o defense against the Cardinals.
This week is an entirely different animal, as there is no way Brett Favre is going to allow the Vikings to get hammered the way the Cardinals were last week. The Vikings have more weapons than Arizona and will be able to get into the end zone much more than the Cards.
As for the Saints, it's quite evident what Drew Brees and company are capable of doing. The Saints are on over sprees of 4-1 in January and 19-7 after an ATS win, while the high number is 8-2 in the Vikings’ last 10 installments as a road underdog.
And make note, in this rivalry the total has gone over in each of the last four clashes, including a 30-27 shootout in New Orleans last season easily clearing the 47-point price. The number is higher this time around, but last season's final would still clear this total today.
1♦ VIKINGS/SAINTS OVER
Bobby Maxwell
Dallas -3' at NEW YORK
Delivered another FREE winner on Saturday as the Heat destroyed the Kings to improve my record to 57-24, including 34-10 with my last 44 selections. Today I've got yet another NBA comp winner coming on the Mavericks as they lay some small chalk in New York against the Knicks.
Dallas wraps up a five-game road trip today in New York and a win makes it a successful 3-2 trip. You can count on the Mavs coming out tough and lighting up the Madison Square Garden scoreboard.
They haven’t topped the 100-point mark in seven straight games, but the Mavericks will get there today because the Knicks don’t stop anybody. They give up 101.7 at home and allow the opposition to shoot 47.7 percent from the floor. Dallas averages 99.6 on the season, but after the day of rest you can count on big days from Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion and Jason Terry. These guys love playing in the New York spotlight and they’ll get it done today.
Dallas has won seven straight against New York dating back to 2006, cashing in five of the last seven and three of the last four. The Mavs went to the Garden last season and scored a 124-114 win as a 1 ½-point favorite. They’ve won three straight in New York and cashed in each one.
The Knicks have dropped five of seven overall (SU and ATS), losing at home to the Lakers on Friday, 115-105 as a 5 ½-point underdog. They allowed the Lakers to shoot better than 50 percent from the floor as they continue to struggle defensively.
Dallas is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings with the Knicks and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes, including the Mavs 6-1 ATS mark the last seven times in the Garden. Love Dallas in this one, lay the chalk and play the Mavericks.
5♦ DALLAS