Stephen Nover
Pittsburgh +3 at SETON HALL
Any time I can find the better team getting points, I'm usually going to play on that team. That's the case in this matchup with Pittsburgh catching points at Seton Hall.
The Panthers are proven road warriors winning 55 of their last 84 road games during the past nine seasons. They are 3-0 this season on the road versus Big East foes with victories against Syracuse, Cincinnati and Connecticut.
Seton Hall is not in Pittsburgh's class. The Pirates have lost six of their last nine games. They are 0-5 when facing Top 25 RPI ranked teams.
The Panthers are 7-1-2 ATS the past 10 times they've faced opponents with a winning mark. Seton Hall has failed to cover during six of the last eight times it has faced a team with a winning record.
Pittsburgh has beaten Seton Hall by an average of seven points the past two times it has faced the Pirates on the road.
The Panthers are surrendering less than 60 points per game. Look for them to slow down and frustrate Seton Hall once again.
3♦ PITTSBURGH
Brett Atkins
I improved to 10-5 with my last 15 free selections when I nailed Saturday's winner on USC as the Trojans blew out Washington in Pac-10 action. Today I've got another comp play for you, grabbing the points with Cincinnati as the Bearcats are on the road at Louisville.
This is really a battle of two struggling teams in the Big East. But Cincinnati went to Louisville and stole a 58-57 win in 2008 as 13 ½-point underdogs and they are getting inside this number today.
The Cardinals have dropped three in a row, losing at home to Villanova and then at Pitt and Seton Hall. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four and 1-5 ATS in their last six overall. They have been inconsistent on both offense and defense this season, with 80 points allowed to Seton Hall a prime example of no defense.
Cincinnati is giving up just 64.2 points a game in its last five overall, and allowing the opposition to shoot just 41 percent from the floor. Louisville has given up 78.4 points a game over their last five and 47.7 percent shooting.
The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine series clashes and the Cardinals are just 2-5 ATS at home and 1-4 ATS after a non-cover.
The Bearcats have some momentum coming into this with back-to-back wins over Notre Dame and South Florida. Look for them to keep it close with the Cardinals and definitely get within this number.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Jay McNeil
I nailed a real easy winner Saturday night with my free play as Stanford rolled over Oregon by 15 points, lifting my record to 41-34-1 over the last 76 days. Now I'm turning to the AFC Championship Game to come up with another winner today!
Both the Jets and Colts are going to have difficulties moving the ball today, as New York possesses perhaps the best defense in the NFL and Indianapolis' defense is healthy and looked sharp in the team's 20-3 victory over Baltimore last weekend.
Seven of the Colts' last nine playoff games have went under the total, and five of Ijndianapolis' last seven postseason games with it as a favorite have went under.
Only the Colts have scored more than 14 points against the Jets in New York's last eight games, and the Jets are going to go with a conservative game plan on offense in an attempt to keep the game close and try to win it in the fourth quarter.
The only way this game goes over is if the teams turn the ball over multiple times in their own end, and with a premium being placed on ball control today, I just don't see that happening. This game is going to be a low-scoring affair.
3♦ JETS-COLTS UNDER
Charley Sutton
Bad call yesterday as Texas gets beat up again and falls to UConn.
I’m not sweating that one, however, as I’m delivering with AFC championship as I’m taking the Under in the Jets-Colts game.
The number for this game is hovering around 40 points, depending on where you’re playing it, but that won’t matter because these teams won’t come close.
Consider that coming into this game the Jets have stayed Under the Total in 5 of their last 8 games and have stayed Under 40 points in each of their first two playoff games, totaling, on average, 34.5 points per game.
In fact, during that 8-game stretch for New York, only once has it totaled more than 40 points.
In their first postseason game this year the Colts stayed well Under the Total as they and the Ravens combined for 23, falling well short of the 44-point set total.
In fact, including that game the Colts have stayed Under the Total in 7 of their last 9 playoff games. The Under is also 5-2 the team’s last 7 playoff games when installed as a favorite and it is 4-1 the team’s last 5 playoff games when installed as a favorite of between 3 1/2 and 10 points.
Today, scoring will be at a premium as they stay Under the Total.
3 ♦ COLTS-JETS UNDER
Joel Tyson
While the Jets slipped over the total in their playoff opener at Cincinnati, they did stay low last week at San Diego.
The Colts stayed under last week versus Baltimore, and I have a strong suspicion that this one is going to play low on Championship Sunday.
The Jets know the only way they are going to make it to Miami is to hold Peyton to 21 points or less. On the flip side, the Jets know their best chance for making that happen is to control the clock with their running game.
I don't know if it can happen, but that would appear to be the blue-print for the New Yorkers.
Indy's defense looked mighty tough last week against Baltimore, and I can see this one definitely staying UNDER the total!
3♦ JETS-COLTS UNDER
Pete Angelo
Georgia Tech at Florida State
The Jackets are playing very well right now, and roll into this one off two straight wins over ranked ACC-foes, squeaking past North Carolina 73-71 as a last Saturday followed by Tuesday’s slim 66-64 win against Clemson.
Georgia Tech has won three straight both straight up and versus the books against Top 25 competition and rolls into Tallahassee looking for revenge, as these two opened their ACC campaign against one another on Dec. 20, when Florida State cashed in with a 66-59 overtime victory in Atlanta.
The Jackets have been a cash cow, too, as they're on ATS runs of 13-4 overall, 7-2 on the highway, 7-2 in conference play, 11-4 against teams with winning records, 10-4 following after a straight-up win and 7-2 following a spread-cover.
Take the road team here.
2♦ GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS
Chuck O'Brien
Villanova got the win and cover on Saturday, so I’m now 10-4 with free plays over the past two weeks. On Sunday, take the UNDER in the Vikings-Saints NFC championship game.
I don’t have a strong opinion on the “side” in this game, but I’m quite confident the total is heavily inflated – and that’s because the Vikings (37 points) and Saints (45) put on offensive clinics in their respective victories over the Cowboys and Cardinals last week. What people fail to recognize is the job both defenses did in those games. Minnesota held Dallas – which had scored 34 points in a wild-card win over Philadelphia the previous week – to a single field goal. New Orleans held Arizona – which had scored 51 points in a wild-card win over Green Bay the previous week – to two touchdowns (the first of which came on a busted 70-yard run on the game’s first play).
Minnesota has stayed under the total in seven of its last nine games, and only one of those nine would have gone over this posted total. The Saints went under the number six times in their final seven regular-season games, including the last four in a row, and last week’s game against Arizona barely went “over” only because of that Reggie Bush punt return for a score. It was only the third time in the last 10 games that New Orleans went over 51 points (and two of those had 55 and 59 points).
I know we’ve heard a lot about the passing attacks of both teams, but both teams can run the football very well (and both will try to establish the run to keep the ball out of the hands of the other team’s quarterback). Finally, the under is 4-1 in the Saints’ last five home games, and 5-0-1 in Minny’s last six playoff contests.
5♦ Vikings-Saints UNDER
Jeff Benton
Just missed with Saturday’s freebie on Ohio State, but I’ve still hit seven of my last nine complimentary selections. For Sunday, I’ll back Indiana in the rare role of home favorite against Iowa.
The Hoosiers are coming along under second-year coach Tom Crean. They’re a stunning 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS in Big Ten play, including consecutive huge upsets of Minnesota (81-78 in overtime as an 11-point home pup) and Penn State (67-61 as a 10-point road pup). Indiana also had a competitive home loss to Illinois (66-60 as a 6½-point ‘dog).
Without question, Iowa has supplanted Indiana as the worst team in the league. The Hawkeyes are 7-12 overall, 1-5 in conference and 5-13 ATS in lined games. And while they easily covered a huge 21½-point spread at Michigan State on Wednesday (losing 70-63), the Hawkeyes never had the Spartans scared (and clearly Michigan State – which two weeks earlier won by 18 points at Iowa – didn’t take the Hawkeyes seriously).
While Indiana (5-2 ATS last seven games) has marquee wins over Minnesota, Michigan and Pittsburgh this year, Iowa’s best win was a three-point home victory over Penn State last week. Other than that, the Hawkeyes have defeated the likes of Tennessee State, South Carolina State, Drake, North Carolina Central, Prairie View A&M and Bowling Green. Meanwhile, in addition to their five conference losses (four by double digits), the Hawkeyes have been taken down by Northern Iowa (17-piont loss), Wichita State (17-point loss), Texas-San Antonio (12-point loss) and Duquesne.
Finally, despite having only a handful of scholarship players in what was a miserable season last year, the Hoosiers still enjoyed success against the Hawkeyes, losing 65-60 on the road (but easily covering as a 13-point underdog) and winning 68-60 (as a 3 ½-point underdog). If THAT Indiana squad could beat last year’s Iowa team by eight points, the Hoosiers (4-0 ATS last four home games) can definitely defeat this crappy Hawkeyes squad by the same margin.
4♦ INDIANA
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Dallas Mavericks -3
The Knicks really fought hard against the Lakers Friday only to come up 10 points short. After expending so much energy in that game, it will be extremely difficult for them to bounce back today against a Mavs team that will be hungry for a win after a poor showing in Philly. Over the last 3 seasons, Dallas has won all 4 meetings with New York, posting a 2-0 SU & ATS record at MSG during this time. The Mavs are one of the better road teams in the NBA at 15-8. Plus, they are an impressive 12-1 ATS in road games off an upset loss over the last 2 seasons, 10-2 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season, and 17-5 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. We'll take Dallas for 1 Unit this afternoon.
JIM FEIST
DALLAS MAVERICKS / NEW YORK KNICKS
TAKE: UNDER
The Mavericks are coming off a loss at Philadelphia on Friday, 92-81. The Mavericks don't score a lot of points, evidenced by the fact that they have broken 100 points just once in the last 12 games. The 81 points on Friday matched their second lowest output of the season. However, do to some early high output in the season, the Mavs still rank about in the middle of the pack in scoring with a 99.63 average (16th). In years past the Knicks have been associated with high scoring games. Not so much this season however, as New York is just 17-25 OV/UN on the season and 9-13 OV/UN at home. The Knicks have seen six of their last eight games go UNDER the total, though they did go over in their last game at home in a loss to the Lakers, 105-115. This is the first matchup of the season between these clubs. The last five of seven in the series has gone UNDER the total. The Knicks no longer look to outscore teams as they do play some defense now. Don't look for the Mavs to quicken the pace here so expect a lower scoring contest. Take the UNDER.
DUNKEL
NY Jets at Indianapolis
The Jets look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games as an underdog. New York is the pick (+8) according to Dunkel, which has the Colts favored by only 6. Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+8)
Game 301-302: NY Jets at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 141.004; Indianapolis 146.897
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 6; 42
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 8; 39
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+8); Over
Game 303-304: Minnesota at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 131.779; New Orleans 140.363
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 8 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3); Over
NBA
Dallas at New York
The Knicks look to take advantage of a Dallas team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as a favorite between 1 and 4 1/2 points. New York is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: New York (+3 1/2)
Game 801-802: LA Clippers at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 118.329; Washington 116.293
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 2 1/2; 194
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+2 1/2); Under
Game 803-804: Dallas at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 117.841; New York 117.586
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 3 1/2; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+3 1/2); Over
Game 805-806: LA Lakers at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 122.194; Toronto 121.251
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1; 206
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 4 1/2; 208
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+4 1/2); Under
NCAAB
Sacramento State at Northern Arizona
The Lumberjacks look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games as a favorite between 7 and 12 1/2 points. Northern Arizona is the pick (-11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lumberjacks favored by 14 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (-11 1/2)
Game 807-808: Georgia Tech at Florida State
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 67.649; Florida State 70.476
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 3
Vegas Line: Florida State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+3 1/2)
Game 809-810: Cincinnati at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 64.204; Louisville 74.157
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 10
Vegas Line: Louisville by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-7 1/2)
Game 811-812: Pittsburgh at Seton Hall
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 70.274; Seton Hall 70.744
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 3
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3)
Game 813-814: WI-Milwaukee at Cleveland State
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 57.609; Cleveland State 58.238
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 1
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 4
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (+4)
Game 815-816: WI-Green Bay at Youngstown State
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 55.004; Youngstown State 52.504
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 1
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-1)
Game 817-818: Northern Iowa at Indiana State
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 68.434; Indiana State 58.462
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 10
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 6
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-6)
Game 819-820: Penn State at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 62.002; Wisconsin 77.127
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 15
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 12
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-12)
Game 821-822: East Carolina at Tulane
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 51.531; Tulane 55.974
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Tulane by 8
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (+8)
Game 823-824: Missouri State at Creighton
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri State 56.931; Creighton 61.601
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 4
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-4)
Game 825-826: Iowa at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 54.876; Indiana 64.232
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Indiana by 6
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-6)
Game 827-828: St. Peter's at Canisius
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 48.541; Canisius 58.041
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Canisius by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (-5 1/2)
Game 829-830: Siena at Manhattan
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 63.873; Manhattan 55.132
Dunkel Line: Siena by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 831-832: Fairfield at Iona
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 54.515; Iona 62.609
Dunkel Line: Iona by 8
Vegas Line: Iona by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-5 1/2)
Game 833-834: Rider at Niagara
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 46.236; Niagara 58.217
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 12
Vegas Line: Niagara by 8
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-8)
Game 835-836: Sacramento State at Northern Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento State 42.322; Northern Arizona 56.612
Dunkel Line: Northern Arizona by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Arizona by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (-11 1/2)
NHL
Dallas at Colorado
The Avalanche look to take advantage of a Dallas team that is 1-4 in its last 5 trips to Colorado. Colorado is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Avalanche favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-160)
Game 51-52: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 13.292; Philadelphia 12.309
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-120); 6
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+100); Over
Game 53-54: Boston at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.595; Carolina 11.327
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+100); Under
Game 55-56: Dallas at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.068; Colorado 12.148
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-160); Over
Tom Freese
Iowa at Indiana
Play: Indiana
Indiana is 9-9 overall and 3-3 in Conference Play. Guard Maurice scores 16.4 points a game and he shoots 45% from beyond the arc. Guard Verdell Jones scores 13.4 points a game while forward Christian Watford scores 12.9 points a night along with 6.1 rebounds a game. Four other players average between 6.8 and 5.4 points a game. The Hoosiers score 71 points a game. Iowa is just 7-12 overall and 1-5 in Conference Play. The Hawkeyes have just two double figure scorers. Guard Matt Gatens scores 13.1 points along with 4.8 rebounds. Guard Anthony Tucker scores 11.9 points a game. The Hawkeyes score just 63 points a game and shoot under 70% from the foul line. PLAY ON INDIANA -
Hollywood Sports
Iowa at Indiana
Play: Iowa
Indiana (9-9) won their second game in a row in Big 10 play after defeating Penn State on the road by a 67-61 score. But this young Hoosiers team is ripe for a letdown now back at home as a 6-point favorite. Despite their subpar 7-12 overall record, Iowa has played a challenging non-conference schedule which has helped improve this team. The Hawkeyes come off a gritty 70-63 loss in the difficult environment at Michigan State. They should hang tough in Bloomington as they have covered six of their last eight road games as an underdog of under seven points. Indiana has failed to cover their last four home games as a favorite of under seven points. And the Hoosiers have failed to cover in thirteen of their last sixteen games coming off a win. Indiana may win this game but this young team has not developed the consistency to cover this spread. Take the points with Iowa.
Carlo Campanella
New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts
When these two teams met at the end of the regular season, they were heading in opposite directions. The Colts were resting their starters after already clinching home field advantage throughout the Playoffs while the Jets needed a win in hopes to just stay alive in the Wild Card race. The Jets walked away with a 29-15 road win as 3-point Dogs as the game jumped "Over" the posted Total of 40.5 points even with QB Manning watching from the bench. When the Colts did play their starters early in the game, they entered half time with a 9-3 lead. The Indianapolis' first string defense allowed only a field goal and the back-ups played solid for the entire game, holding the Jets QB Sanchez to 12 completions from 19 attempts for only 91 passing yards! Both of these squads come off low scoring, defensive battles, during last weekend's Playoff victories. Both of those games went "Under" the Total, with New York beating San Diego, 17-14, and Indianapolis winning 20-3. We find the Jets going "Under" in 8 of 11 (73%) games when QB Sanchez passes for 145 yards or less this season! If QB Sanchez could only pass for 91 yards in the first meeting, doubt he'll be much more productive with the Super Bowl on the line and the Colts playing their starters the entire time this Sunday.
7* Play On Under
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Iowa Hawkeyes +6.5
The Hoosiers have covered the spread in back-to-back games, which means now it's time to fade away. Indiana is 0-6 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games under coach Crean. Plus, it's hard to justify laying this many points with the Hoosiers when you consider that they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points and the Hawkeyes are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two teams and I expect this trend to continue today.