Richard Witt
SETON HALL - 2.5 over Pitt
Pitt's Big East bubble burst with bad loss to Hoyas. They're still splendidly-coached, but this remains tough rebound spot against Pirates, who're beginning to find their collective shooting eye.
EZWINNERS
New York Jets +8
The Jets have the number one defense and rushing offense in the league and I will gladly take the generous points that Vegas is offering. The Colts have not been good at running the ball or stopping the run this season and I expect the Jets to be able to control the clock and keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines for long periods of time. Take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW YORK +1.42 over Dallas
If there’s such a thing as a good loss, one need not look further than the Knicks last game against the Lakers. The Lakers came in with a big chip on its shoulder after losing to the Cav’s again the previous night. Ask Kobe what building he loves to play in the most and he’ll instantly reply MSG. The Lakers had a huge edge with its inside game yet the Knicks battled them hard right up to the final three minutes or so and in fact, led a good portion of the way. That was the definition of a good loss and the Knicks have to be feeling pretty good coming into this one. They won over the fans, media and everyone else with that effort and this is a team whose stock is going to skyrocket in the very near future. Remember, the Knicks started 1-9 and are now 17-25 so they’ve gone 16 and 16 since that start and they’re getting better with each passing game. If David Lee doesn’t make the all-star team it’ll be a crime because this guy is wickedly good and one of the leagues best, bar none. Anyway, the Mav’s are among the elite teams but this will be its fifth straight on the road and its worth noting that they’re not going so good right now. In fact, they’ve dropped four of its last seven with and these afternoon games are something they do not respond to. This will be the Mav’s third afternoon game this season and they’re 0-2 with two blowout losses including last week’s 22-point loss at Toronto. Knicks straight up. Play: New York +1.42 (Risking 2 units).
SETON HALL –2½ over Pittsburgh
What a great set-up for the Pirates of Seton Hall in one of the more intriguing match-ups of the year. First, we have the unranked Pirates at home playing the 11th ranked team in the nation, yet the Pirates are a small favorite. That in itself is interesting because it’s unusual to see a team ranked as high as #11 a pooch to an unranked team. Furthermore, The Hall is just 11-6 on the year and 2-4 in conference play while the Panthers are 5-1 in conference play and 15-3 overall and there are no injuries to report. Thing is, The Hall has played an extremely tough schedule that includes games against #5 Syracuse, #6 West Virginia, Va Tech and Temple, the only team to beat “Nova. It’s last four games were against UConn, Cinci, Georgetown and Louisville and one could argue that was the toughest stretch of eight games that any team in the country has faced and the Pirates did not look a bit out of place against any of them. This team is very battle-tested, they’re getting better, they have an outstanding guard in Jimmy Hanzell and they’re also deep. The Panthers have some great wins, make no mistake about that, which includes a 10-point win at Syracuse and a 10-point win at UConn. However, they haven’t looked as sharp in its last two but this is more about playing on one of the rising stars in the nation, the Seton Hall Pirates, a dangerous team that will play its heart out every game and that will be extremely difficult to beat on its home floor. Play: Seton Hall –2½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
CAROLINA –1.03 over Boston
The puck line says it all here in that if you play Boston you’re going to lay a half puck and take back 61 cents and thus, if you take Carolina plus a half puck you’re going to have to lay 75 cents. This type of line is one you won’t find often throughout the course of a season, meaning this high a take-back on the favorite, as it’s a huge enticement to wager on them. After all, who in their right mind would take the worst team in the NHL and lay 75 cents on them? So, you can break down all the stats you like but this one is solely based on the puck line suggestion that at the very worst the Canes will take this to OT but in all likelihood will be leading after 60 minutes. The line says so. Play: Carolina –1.03 (Risking 2 units).
COLORADO -½ +1.07 over Dallas
If you watched Don Cherry’s coaches corner last night then you heard him comment about how the Oilers were robbed by phantom penalties when they played the Stars on Friday. Cherry was right, as he usually is, but the point is the Stars were badly outplayed again and had no right winning that game. Dallas has now won just one road game in its last 10 and asking them to win two straight after consecutive road games in Western Canada is a tough, tough assignment. Besides that, the Av’s are on fire again with five straight wins and that includes victories over, New Jersey, Buffalo and Calgary, the latter two on the road. Not only did the Av’s win they outscored its opponents 18-7 over its current five gamer. Colorado has won three in a row at home also and during that stretch they’ve outscored the opposition 11-2. Craig Anderson is playing as good or better than anyone in the game and these Av’s are as determined as anyone too. The better team, the hungrier team and hot vs cold gets the call. Play: Colorado -½ +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
John Ryan
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -4.5
3* graded play on the Lakers as they take on Toronto set to start at 6:00 EST. Our proprietary spots handicapping model/simulator clearly shows a rout in the making. With a posted total of 208 it is certainly reasonable to expect both teams to score 98 or more points. Toronto is just 19-31 ATS (-15.1 Units) where both teams score 98 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is not a good defensive team ranking 26th allowing 104.9 PPG. Toronto has not done well against top level teams like the Lakers. Note that Toronto is just 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team posting a win percentage > 70% over the last 2 seasons. Lakers just have too much and Toronto does not have the personnel to contain all of the Lakers’ weapons. Take the Lakers.
SEAN MURPHY
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Philadelphia Flyers
PICK: Under 6.5
I don't believe that today's Penguins vs. Flyers matchup is going to develop into the shootout that most are expecting.
Pittsburgh has allowed 16 goals in its last three games, and that's had a lot to do with the absence of Marc-Andre Fleury between the pipes. Note that backup netminder Brent Johnson's last four starts have resulted in 7, 11, 10, and 10 total goals. Fleury's last two starts have totaled 4 and 5 goals.
Fleury is expected to be back in net on Sunday and the Pens should also have one of their stronger defensive forwards back in the lineup in Pascal Dupuis. We can expect a better defensive effort from them after that brutal stretch that I mentioned. Note that they're allowing just under three goals per game on the road this season.
The Flyers have played much better defensive hockey lately, buoyed by the return of their number one goaltender Ray Emery. He has given up just two goals over his last two games, both victories over the Rangers and Hurricanes. The Flyers are allowing just a shade over 2.6 goals per game at the Wachovia Center this season.
The over has cashed in seven of the Penguins last 10 games overall, but the under is actually 11-5 in their last 16 games played away from home. As for the Flyers, the under is 6-1 in their last seven contests as a home favorite priced under -150 and 12-4 in their last 16 games overall in that price range.
The early start should help our cause today as well, as we often see sluggish starts in games where the puck drops prior to 1 pm local time.
Shop around and try to find a 6.5 if you can, but I still recommend a play on the under at a flat '6'. Take the under.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Jets/Colts UNDER 40
Plays Under on home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 9 points or less last game, are 29-8 the last 10 seasons. Combine this with the fact that New York boasts the NFL's No. 1 ranked defense and we've got ourselves a solid Unders situation. Plus, the Jets also boast the NFL's No. 1 ranked rushing attack so they should be able to eat some clock today. We'll make a small play on the Under.
Cajun Sports
2* Jets / Colts Over 40
The New York Jets take to the highway for the third straight week as they face the Indianapolis Colts in the Lucas Oil Dome on Sunday afternoon in the AFC Championship Game. The talk all week is how will Peyton and company deal with the Rex Ryan defense and of course how will rookie QB Mark Sanchez deal with the pressure of his first Conference Final. Well we have history for the Peyton question as Manning has had a ton of experience and success dealing with Ryan’s Ravens stop units. We also have his performance against this year’s edition of the Ryan defense before he was pulled out of the game he completed 14 of 21 passes for 192 yards and three scores on six possessions. The Colts offensive line has allowed a league low 14 sacks on the year and they did a good job against the aggressive defense of the Baltimore Ravens last week. Manning’s ability to make you pay when you blitz and his quick release should allow him to control the pace and flow of the game. Indianapolis was able to hold Baltimore’s RB Ray Rice to only 67 yards rushing on the day and if the Jets fall behind early they will be forced to abandon their vaunted rushing attack for a more aggressive passing scheme which could spell trouble for the Jets and Mark Sanchez. If the Jets are forced to throw the ball they are more likely to turn the ball over with interceptions and fumbles which will give Manning more scoring opportunities and possibly shorter fields to work with. In this series we have seen the over cash at a rate of 5-1-1 their last seven meetings. We also note a league-wide system that tells us to Play OVER on NFL teams playing their third straight road affair these teams have gone 22-8-2 over for 73 percent winners. In the playoffs during this round when the total is 41 or less the over has gone 20-8-2 the last 30 games. Play OVER on NFL teams (NY Jets) as an underdog the week after a win in which they had fewer than 100 yards passing, 15-5 over and 12-3 over when playing on the road as an underdog. The Colts are 9-1 over as a home favorite after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. The Colts are 6-0 over as a favorite when facing a team they lost to in their first match-up. With solid technical and situational support as well as history on our side we will play the over here as the Jets and Colts push this Conference Championship Game over the posted total of 40 points.
Info Plays
3* on Rider +8.5
Reasons why Rider covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - A road team (RIDER) - poor shooting team - shooting <=42% on the season against opponent cold shooting team - 5 straight games making <=40% of their shots. This is a 32-8 ATS System hitting 80% since 1997. Niagara is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, shooting less than 40% in every game. They are getting way too much respect here from the odds makers. Bet Rider on the road.
John Martin
1 Unit on Lakers/Raptors OVER 208
This Total has been set too low Sunday, and I'll capitalize by betting the OVER. Toronto gets it done offensively, scoring 103.6 points/game. But they play no defense, allowing 104.9 points/game this season. Toronto is 18-6 OVER after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Raptors are 37-23 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 7-1 in Raptors last 8 games following a S.U. win. The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Cash in with the OVER.
Black Widow
1* on L.A. Lakers -4.5
The Lakers are 19-5 S.U. & 12-9 ATS in their last 24 meetings with Toronto. This is one team that Kobe loves to face, as he torched the Raptors for a career-high 81 points a few years back. The Lakers have won 4 straight over Toronto, and they are 9-3 in their last 12 trips to the Raptors. L.A. is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) off a road win over the last 3 seasons. The Raptors are 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers are 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Toronto doesn't play any defense, which gives them no chance against the defending champs tonight. Take the Lakers and lay the points.