Indian Cowboy
Oakland (+7) over Kansas City
We roll with Oakland as our comp selection this week after a nice comp winner with Cincinnati +3.5 over Denver as they stay inside the hook. As per the Raiders, this is a squad that is 7-8, and getting to .500 means volumes for a team that could barely stay competitive nevertheless win a game last year. But, this is Woodson's last game, this is a squad that symbolically getting to .500 would mean a lot for this franchise after years of dysfunction. And, seeing that this team is not going to the playoffs, this is their playoff game and even their Super Bowl if you will. This game is everything for them in the remaining 2015 season, and they will leave nothing in the bag. Besides, who else is better than stopping the Chiefs insane winning streak coming back from 1-5 to open the season to now having a chance to get to 11-5 on the season. We like Oakland to step up here as we have them at a 35% chance of winning outright and likely losing this contest by 3-4 points this weekend.
Alan Harris
Philadelphia / New York Over 52
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Philadelphia Eagles hit the road to take on the New York Giants at Met Life Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, on Sunday afternoon. The Eagles have posted a 19-7 record to the over in their last 26 games following an ATS loss and they have gone a perfect 5-0 to the over in their last five games after allowing 30 points or more in their previous contest. The Giants have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Sunday as they have posted a 5-1 record to the over in both their last six home games and their last six games versus a team from the NFC in addition to going over the posted total in eleven of their last fifteen Week 17 games. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone an excellent 6-1 to the over in their last seven head-to-head meetings in New York, and that's where we'll have our Weekly Newsletter Free Play in a game that we see turning into an old-fashioned shootout in North Jersey on Sunday afternoon!
Raphael Esparza
New Orleans / Atlanta Over 52
Last game of the year for both division teams and I see a track meet at the Georgia Dome. The Saints offense was clicking on all cylinders at home last week, throwing up a 38 spot against the Jaguars defense, and I see the Saints scoring on the road this Sunday. Yes, I know the Atlanta Falcons have played 9-straight UNDER games, but again since this is the last game of the year for both I see both QB's having big games. The Saints are averaging 31.7 ppg in their last 4 games and the Saints scored 31 points against Atlanta at home this season. New Orleans is 5-1-1 O/U in their last 7 games against NFC teams and the Saints are 6-2 O/U in their last 8 games.
Vernon Croy
Detroit (+3) over Chicago
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems, and I have Detroit winning this game by at least a touchdown here Sunday. Detroit is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against the Bears and they are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing a team with a losing record. The Lions are still playing some very good football despite playing for nothing and the Bears are just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games when playing a team with a losing record on the road. The Bears are just 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 home games and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games against an NFC North opponent. The Lions have the better team here on both sides of the ball, and I would not be surprised if they put up their best offensive numbers of the season in Chicago Sunday. Play Detroit ATS with confidence.
Heath Mac
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -6.5
We’re jumping on this one nice and early and this number should go up as the week progresses. Anyone who watched the Cards absolutely dismantle early season SB favorites the Packers, couldn’t help but be impressed. In fact Arizona had more sacks (9) than Green Bay had points (8). The Cardinals have that great mix of potent offense (ranked 1st) and defense (ranked 3rd) that it takes to win the big ones.
The Seahawks have looked better in the past month, but were soundly beaten by arch nemesis St Louis at home and it just seems as though Seattle has well and truly lost it’s air of invincibility, particularly at home. The Cards are the best team in the country and we think they’ll win the superbowl. They’ll win this one by at least a TD at home, if not more.
Marc Lawrence
St Louis at San Francisco
Play: San Francisco +3½
Edges - Niners: 6-1 ATS home with a losing record when facing a foe with a losing record. Rams: 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in Last Road Game of the season; and 1-5 ATS after facing Seattle. With St. Louis having been out started in each of its last seven games, look for the Niners to close out the season in the same manner in which they started it - with a SU home dog win. We recommend a 1* play on San Francisco.
Power Sports
Detroit vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
Normally, I would refrain from any kind of recommendation on a game where neither team has much to play for. But in this instance, I think there's a little value on a Bears side playing at home and w/ revenge. This game also has significance for anyone who bet the Bears season win total. I look for them to beat Detroit.
The Lions have played better of late (won 5 of 7), but there was a time when they were 1-7 SU/ATS and this coaching staff appeared to be in major trouble. That one win came in overtime, against these Bears, 37-34 (-3.5) back in Week 6. The teams combined for 50 first downs and nearly 1,000 total yards in that first meeting, but there should be fewer points scored in this one as each defense has improved somewhat dramatically through the course of the season. Also, it should be mentioned that on the road Detroit averages a rather paltry 18.7 points per game. There have been just two times they've topped that average this year, one was in Week 1, the other was against the worst defense in the league (New Orleans).
As for Chicago, I'm sure they'd like to end the season with a home win. They're just 1-6 SU at Soldier Field this year, which is really disappointing. However, four of those losses have been by six points or less. True to form, they've lost two years in a row to Detroit here at home - by a combined eight points. I think a close one is due to go the Bears' way here and in addition to the motivation of trying to snap a four-game home losing streak here, they are looking to snap a five-game slide to the Lions.
Bruce Marshall
Jacksonville +6.5
The Texans have shuffled QBs (winning games with four of them, including Cleveland and Dallas castoff Brandon Weeden the past two weeks!) as most teams do nickel backs. But even in must-win mode to secure the AFC South and with QB of choice Brian Hoyer perhaps back from concussion, not sure Houston has it easy vs. the potent Jags, who continue to play hard for well-liked HC Gus Bradley (just granted another year by owner Shad Khan). If J'ville (NFL-worst 2.5 ppg in the first Q) ever stops hurting itself with slow starts, Blake Bortles (now 35 TDP) can make the Texans sweat before they punch their playoff ticket.
Stephen Nover
Ravens vs. Bengals
Play: begals -9
Cincinnati has beaten and covered against Baltimore each of the past three seasons at home. Now John Harbaugh's Ravens have to go into Cincinnati in worst shape than they've ever been.
Physically, the Ravens are a wreck with close to 20 players on injured reserve, including all of their key skill position players, best offensive lineman and top pass rusher. Marvin Lewis, by contrast, has maybe his best Bengals team. Cincinnati leads the NFL in scoring defense giving up 17.5 points a game and ranks fourth in scoring averaging 26.3 points per game. Unlike the Ravens, the Bengals are healthy.
A.J. McCarron is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. He's aided by having tremendous weapons. A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones have combined for 25 touchdown receptions. Eifert is expected to play after missing last week. McCarron has been more comfortable going against secondaries that use man-to-man coverage rather than zone. McCarron's comfort area is making short, safe outside throws, which zones are more suited to stop. The Ravens, however, are not a good zone defense. Green has put up monster numbers on the Ravens during his last four games against them: 28 receptions, 570 yards and five touchdowns.
Look for McCarron to have his finest NFL performance going from facing Denver's elite defense on the road to taking on a decimated Ravens defense.
The Ravens' backup skill position talent can't match Cincinnati's. Ryan Mallet is a proven stiff. He does deserve credit for helping the Ravens upset Pittsburgh last week. Cincinnati's defense is at a higher level than the Steelers, tied for third in interceptions with 19 and tied for fourth in sacks with 41. The Bengals also have a plus nine turnover ratio, fourth-best in the NFL.
Baltimore needs to establish a ground attack to give Mallet a chance. I don't see that happening either. The Bengals rank seventh in run defense. The Ravens are down to backup runners. Baltimore rushed for just 36 yards on 18 attempts when it lost 28-24 at home to the Bengals in Week 3. That was the Ravens' second-lowest rush total of the season. The Ravens had Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett and Steve Smith for that game.
Before beating Pittsburgh last week, the Ravens had lost their three previous games falling to Miami on the road by two points and then getting buried at home by Seattle, 35-6, and Kansas City, 34-14. Those outcomes never were in doubt. Cincinnati has beaten both the Seahawks and Chiefs. It's fair to say the Bengals are better than both of those teams.
The one shining highlight to this lost season for the Ravens was their stunning upset of the Steelers last week. That was their Super Bowl as the Steelers are their most hated and bitter rival. Even Harbaugh is going to have trouble motivating his slew of backups to rise above their below average talent level for this matchup, their first road game in four weeks. Baltimore is 4-10-1 ATS the last 15 times after covering in their previous game.
Cincinnati will be going all out needing a victory to keep alive its hopes of earning a first-round bye. That would happen if the Bengals win and Denver loses to San Diego. This is an early matchup so the Bengals won't know the Chargers-Broncos result because that game kicks off three hours and 25 minutes later.
The Bengals have a strong recent history of taking care of business against lesser foes covering six of the past seven times versus sub .500 opponents. Cincinnati also has covered nine of its past 11 games versus AFC foes. The Bengals are far more talented and deep for the battered Ravens. Add in home advantage and a right situation considering how difficult it is for the Ravens to be sky-high a second straight week and this matchup has all the makings of a kill spot for the Bengals.
Teddy Covers
Detroit at Chicago
Play: Detroit +1
The Lions are 5-2 since their 1-7 start. Two of their losses were complete screw jobs. Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary pass to beat them following a tough penalty call on the previous play was brutal. So was their loss at Seattle, with a dubious non-call at the goal line in the final seconds on Monday Night Football. Overall, Detroit is a better team than their record would indicate. That’s not the case for the Bears.
Detroit has gotten much, much better since offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi was fired mid-season, replaced by Jim Bob Cooter. It’s surely worth noting that Matthew Stafford has a 16-2 TD-INT ratio and a 108.7 QB rating since Cooter took over, in sharp contrast to his 13-11 TD-INT ratio and his 84.1 QB rating under Lombardi.
The Lions have won on the road at Green Bay and New Orleans; a veteran team capable of taking care of business in hostile environments. And frankly, I’m not convinced that Solider Field is a particularly hostile environment these days. Homefield edge? Not so much! Chicago is 1-6 SU, 1-6 ATS at Soldier Field this year, the lone win coming by two points against Oakland, in the mother of all bad spots for the Raiders.
This is not a new problem for the Bears. My numbers show Chicago with a 8-22-1 ATS mark at home since the start of the 2011 campaign, four consecutive losing seasons ATS on this field. In fact, you’d have to go back to the Bears 2006 Super Bowl team with Rex Grossman and Lovie Smith to find the last time Chicago enjoyed a season with a winning ATS mark at home. This is NOT a team that has any significant homefield edge, yet the markets factor it into the equation anyway.
And there’s another factor that is not reflected in this pointspread – a spread based on season long results and stats -- but is very meaningful in my handicap of this game. John Fox was just hired in Chicago this past offseason; safe and secure in his job (for now, at least). But Jim Caldwell is right on the precipice, a coach who could get a shot at redemption next year or a guy who could get fired next Monday morning. Let’s not forget that Caldwell led a team of perennial losers with one playoff appearance in 13 years to an 11 win season and a playoff berth last year.
And it’s very clear from reading player quotes in the locker room that Caldwell has the respect of his team. To a man, the Lions want him back, and will play their tails off here in an effort to save his job. Star WR and team leader Calvin Johnson: “Love him. Everybody in the locker room would probably say the same thing. He commands respect but he doesn’t have to do much. It’s just his character. Guys gravitate towards [him]. Easily one of my favorite coaches I’ve had come through.”
Johnson gave credit for the team’s second half turnaround to their coach’s ability to keep the team together during tough times earlier. “Guys see that he’s a great person. He’s a great coach and guys are going to fight for that, you know. We didn’t start like we wanted to but we’ve been doing our best to finish the best that we can and it’s just him being him. He doesn’t have to do anything extraordinary. He’s a great coach and just the way he communicates to you, not that he demands respect but he gets respect.”
Chicago snapped a three game skid with a win against the free falling Buccaneers last week, but much of the credit for that victory has to go to Tampa’s litany of mistakes. Chicago was outgained by 2.2 yards per PLAY in that contest, but they were +3 in turnovers; playing a rare turnover free game. Love Smith’s post-game quote: "This is a better football team. Today we didn't play our best ball." In other words, it was more Tampa bad than Chicago good. I’m not expecting Detroit to be ‘bad’ this week!
Wunderdog
New York @ Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo +3
The New York Jets head to Buffalo with their playoff fate in their own hands and control their own destiny. The Buffalo Bills had a lot of promise for this season, but came up short of their goal to make the playoffs, and this will not be an easy game for the Jets. Buffalo will be bringing it as this is their Super Bowl, and nothing could make a sour season sweeter than knocking the Jets out of the the playoffs. Add to the story line the irony that standing in the way is Rex Ryan, and you know his team is going to be jacked up for this game. The Jets are in a historically bad situation that plays against better than .500 teams off a huge home dog win, and are now in a division game. The situation is 16-56 ATS, and the Jets are looking down the teeth of it for their finale. Make the play on Buffalo.
Brandon Shively
New York at Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo +2.5
Buffalo has beaten the Jets four straight meetings including a win earlier this year in New York. While the Bills can't make the playoffs, I can guarantee you they would like to play spoiler to the Jets and not let them in.
In the first meeting this year, the Bills were a 2.5 point dog on the road and now for them to be a field goal underdog at home screams inflation to me based on the Jets 'must win' scenario. I'm not buying it.
The Jets are coming off a huge, emotional win over the Patriots in overtime. That was a great win for the team (and me), but they do not have much time to celebrate and the pressure is mounting for the team.
The Bills are 3-0 SU and ATS their last three home games. A win today will put them at .500 on the season and give them momentum for next season. I don't see them laying down here.
Buffalo has won four in a row and five of the last six against the Jets. The Jets have lost the last three meetings on the road by 21, 23, and 35 points. Rex Ryan was the former Jets coach last year and I can guarantee you he would love to not see the Jets go to the playoffs and he would like for his team (Bills) to be the one to do it.
Tony George
Redskins vs. Cowboys
Play: Redskins +4
What is Dallas doing laying points to anyone, and the line is going up. On their 4th QB of the season who looked iffy at best ;last week at Buffalo in a loss, and it is more of the same for Dallas who is 0-4-1 ATS at home against a team with a winning record. Washington is a division champ and QB Cousins has evolved into a better than average QB this season, and the Skins are road warriors, and they are 7-1 ATS the last 8 when playing in Dallas.
Not sold on Washington hanging it up early this week, as Jay Gruden knows momentum is everything headed into the playoffs, and I doubt they fold their tent and let a 4 win team whip their ass, and not sure Dallas could do it if they wanted to. Cousins will get the start and see plenty of snaps but no doubt won't finish the game but all starters for the Skins will see the first half and that should be enough. You just cannot win at this level without a decent QB in the NFL, that is the bottom line and Dallas's demise all year. Trust me, Jay Gruden wants to win this game but he will substitute throughout the game. Even in that scenario I do not trust laying points with Dallas.
Washington playing with double revenge after a 19-16 home loss back on December 7th at home, and last year in the last game in this series Dallas embarrassed them 44-17 at home, so motivation is here to stamp a division title with an exclamation point and head into the post season with some steam despite sitting some players here and there. The Skins have scored 74 points the last 2 weeks and Dallas cannot trade punches here on the scoreboard, even at home.
Teddy Covers
Detroit at Chicago
Play: Detroit +1
The Lions are 5-2 since their 1-7 start. Two of their losses were complete screw jobs. Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary pass to beat them following a tough penalty call on the previous play was brutal. So was their loss at Seattle, with a dubious non-call at the goal line in the final seconds on Monday Night Football. Overall, Detroit is a better team than their record would indicate. That’s not the case for the Bears.
Detroit has gotten much, much better since offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi was fired mid-season, replaced by Jim Bob Cooter. It’s surely worth noting that Matthew Stafford has a 16-2 TD-INT ratio and a 108.7 QB rating since Cooter took over, in sharp contrast to his 13-11 TD-INT ratio and his 84.1 QB rating under Lombardi.
The Lions have won on the road at Green Bay and New Orleans; a veteran team capable of taking care of business in hostile environments. And frankly, I’m not convinced that Solider Field is a particularly hostile environment these days. Homefield edge? Not so much! Chicago is 1-6 SU, 1-6 ATS at Soldier Field this year, the lone win coming by two points against Oakland, in the mother of all bad spots for the Raiders.
This is not a new problem for the Bears. My numbers show Chicago with a 8-22-1 ATS mark at home since the start of the 2011 campaign, four consecutive losing seasons ATS on this field. In fact, you’d have to go back to the Bears 2006 Super Bowl team with Rex Grossman and Lovie Smith to find the last time Chicago enjoyed a season with a winning ATS mark at home. This is NOT a team that has any significant homefield edge, yet the markets factor it into the equation anyway.
And there’s another factor that is not reflected in this pointspread – a spread based on season long results and stats -- but is very meaningful in my handicap of this game. John Fox was just hired in Chicago this past offseason; safe and secure in his job (for now, at least). But Jim Caldwell is right on the precipice, a coach who could get a shot at redemption next year or a guy who could get fired next Monday morning. Let’s not forget that Caldwell led a team of perennial losers with one playoff appearance in 13 years to an 11 win season and a playoff berth last year.
And it’s very clear from reading player quotes in the locker room that Caldwell has the respect of his team. To a man, the Lions want him back, and will play their tails off here in an effort to save his job. Star WR and team leader Calvin Johnson: “Love him. Everybody in the locker room would probably say the same thing. He commands respect but he doesn’t have to do much. It’s just his character. Guys gravitate towards [him]. Easily one of my favorite coaches I’ve had come through.”
Johnson gave credit for the team’s second half turnaround to their coach’s ability to keep the team together during tough times earlier. “Guys see that he’s a great person. He’s a great coach and guys are going to fight for that, you know. We didn’t start like we wanted to but we’ve been doing our best to finish the best that we can and it’s just him being him. He doesn’t have to do anything extraordinary. He’s a great coach and just the way he communicates to you, not that he demands respect but he gets respect.”
Chicago snapped a three game skid with a win against the free falling Buccaneers last week, but much of the credit for that victory has to go to Tampa’s litany of mistakes. Chicago was outgained by 2.2 yards per PLAY in that contest, but they were +3 in turnovers; playing a rare turnover free game. Love Smith’s post-game quote: "This is a better football team. Today we didn't play our best ball." In other words, it was more Tampa bad than Chicago good. I’m not expecting Detroit to be ‘bad’ this week!
Mike O'Connor
CINCINNATI (-9) 25 Baltimore 15
The Bengals lost in overtime last week in Denver but still hold out hope for a first round bye and will be playing to win this game as a win here, coupled with a Broncos loss to the Chargers, would give Cincinnati the #2 seed. On the other side, the Ravens pulled off a huge win last week as a 10.5 point dog against their biggest rival - the Steelers. While the Bengals want to get back on track with a win here, Baltimore could be a bit flat in this game after three consecutive home games – the last being a big-time win that might have knocked the Steelers out of the playoffs, and now travelling for their final game.
The Bengals are the superior team and are motivated so I expect to get their best effort in this game. The big question is how AJ McCarron will perform. McCarron was impressive in the first half against the Broncos last week but had a subpar second half and is dealing with a left wrist injury – although that shouldn’t be an issue. Adjusting for McCarron and the Ravens injuries/quarterback the math favors the Bengals by 8.4 points, not a significant difference.
Cincinnati does qualify in a good 112-62-4 home favorite situation and coupled with what might be a let-down spot for Baltimore, I’ll lean with the Bengals minus the points.
New England (-10) 28 MIAMI 17
The Patriots can clinch the #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win here and they’ll be focused after their overtime loss to the Jets last week. Bill Belichick means business this week – he had players in full pads on Wednesday with a focus on returning to fundamentals and things have worked out well for the Patriots when Belichick slams the hammer down.
Add to the fact that the Patriots are facing a listless Dolphins team that is literally limping to the finish line and we have the makings of a game that could get out of hand. Miami has lost seven of their last nine games (1-8 ATS), being outscored by nearly 11 points per game and losing by an average ATS margin of 8.6 points.
The Patriots are banged up right now along their offensive line, in their receiving group, and in their secondary so this game could be closer than projected and my model, adjusted for injuries, favors the Pats by 9.8 points. There are no situations in play so I’m going to lean with the stable organization and the superior coach/quarterback combination that have something to play for.
Pittsburgh (-11) 28 CLEVELAND 16
Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel is out for the Browns so Austin Davis will be the starting quarterback in this game. He didn’t inspire a lot of confidence in his last outing – a 37-3 loss to the Bengals in Week 13 and he’s stepping into a difficult situation facing a Steelers team that needs this win and some help from the Bills to make the playoffs. Pittsburgh’s defense will be fired up to get after Davis and he doesn’t have much of a supporting cast around him to help.
Meanwhile, a potent Steelers offense that generates 394 yards per game at 6.4 yppl against teams that allow 344 yards at 5.4 yppl should have no trouble scoring points against a Browns defense that can’t stop the run or the pass. Cleveland allows an average of 380 yards per game at 6.1 yppl to teams that gain 354 yards at 5.6 yppl while allowing 27 points per game this season to teams that average 23 points per game.
Pittsburgh needs to win this game and will be eliminated with a loss while the Browns were eliminated a long time ago. That scenario actually sets the Steelers up in a negative 57-95-4 situation that plays against the team that has the pressure to win (in this case the Steelers). However, the Steelers have played the Browns in the final game of the season in four of the last five years and have won those four games by a combined score of 98-35. There is no significant difference between my model and the current line (my line is Pitt -9.7) and there are no other significant situations in play. I don’t like the match-ups but I do like the situation. I expect the Browns to give it their best but I have to lean slightly with the Steelers minus the number.
BUFFALO (+3) 20 NY Jets 21
The Jets face a win-and-your-in scenario in what essentially amounts to a playoff game in this battle of familiar faces. Former Jets head coach Rex Ryan faces his former team with an opportunity to bounce them out of the playoffs but Ryan Fitzpatrick returns to Buffalo with an opportunity to cement his first career playoff appearance.
The Jets played their worst game of the season in their loss to the Bills in Week 10, committing four turnovers, but they were injured in their defensive secondary and along their offensive line. They are a different team right now, healthier and playing much better, while the Bills are banged up. Ryan knows the Jets' personnel better than anyone and will be doing everything in his power to help this team get motivated to play their best but I’m not sure the Bills players fully have his back. There have been a number of player comments this season directed towards their head coach that lead me to question the character, the resolve, and the mental makeup of some on this Bills team. Ryan hasn’t won anything in a long time and as a result doesn’t have that winning back-history with the Bills. It also appears that he hasn’t built the quality of relationships that he enjoyed in New York, where the players had his back. His first season in Buffalo has been disappointing to say the least, so I’m not convinced the Bills will be up to the task in this game. Wednesday's endorsement from the Buffalo ownership, which released a statement saying Ryan will be back in 2016 may help to rally the troops some as Ryan will be back next season and the players know that they have to put on a good show in an important game for Ryan.
The problem is that the Bills just aren’t that good right now and don’t match up particularly well with the Jets in this game. Buffalo runs the ball well but the Jets are excellent at shutting down the run – allowing just 81 rushing yards per game at 3.8 ypr against teams that gain 101 yards at 4.2 ypr. New York will be all-in on shutting down the Bills ground game and have a secondary and defensive scheme that will give Tyrod Taylor problems. On the other side, the Jets offense has been playing very well recently and presents some match-up problems to the Bills corners. In addition, the Bills can’t stop the run – allowing 4.6 ypr to teams that average 4.1 ypr and will have a difficult time slowing down a balanced Jet offense.
While the match-ups support the Jets, the data supports the Bills. The Bills qualify in a late-season 157-101-9 situation while the Jets qualify in a negative 22-64-4 let-down situation that plays against them. Being essentially a playoff game, I discount the let-down factor some on the Jets situation but I certainly won’t be playing against it. The model supports the Bills in this game as well – summing it up it’s a lean to the Bills plus the points.
New Orleans (+4) 28 ATLANTA 27
New Orleans has had a disappointing year but have played better the past month or so behind their typically strong offense. Last week Drew Brees and the Saints offense rolled up 540 yards at 7.9 yppl in their victory against the Jaguars and this week they’ll look to end the season on a positive note in what could be the final game in Saints gear for head coach Sean Payton and Drew Brees. On the other side, despite beating the previously undefeated Panthers in a spirited effort, Atlanta was knocked out of playoff contention and now are playing for pride and a winning record overall in their final home game.
From a match-up perspective both teams should be able to move the ball effectively with better than average offenses facing below average defenses. New Orleans still has one of the top passing offenses in the NFL that averages 307 passing yards per game at 7.1 yps against teams that allow 243 yards at 6.4 yps so they should be able to have success against a Falcons pass defense that allows 6.6 yps against teams that allow 6.3 yps. Similarly, the Falcons should be able to both run and pass the ball against a Saints defense that has been terrible – allowing an average of 414 yards at 6.7 yppl to teams that gain 357 yards at 5.6 yppl.
When these teams played back in Week 6 (a 31-21 Saints win), the Falcons were able to move the ball easily but lost three fumbles which stalled drives and eventually cost them the game. Atlanta’s offense has cooled off since then but this defense might be the cure for what ails them.
The Saints qualify in a late season 157-101-9 situation while the Falcons qualify in a very negative 53-132-3 scheduling situation that plays against them. My model doesn’t see a significant advantage for either side but in what should be a high scoring game, I like the Saints plus the points.
DALLAS (-4) 21 Washington 16
Sunday's game against Dallas means nothing for Washington other than the bragging rights of a winning record as they would finish 9-7 with the win. Washington can't improve their seed, so they will be hosting a Wild Card Weekend game and while coach Gruden says that he’ll play his healthy starters – it remains to be seen how many of them are fully healthy and will actually play. Those players that are dealing with injuries might not play and even if they do, how long will they remain in the game? On the Dallas side, they’re starting Kellen Moore once again and he won’t have top receiver Dez Bryant as he was placed on IR earlier this week. Moore is completing just 50% of his passes with one touchdown and four interceptions and last week could muster just 6 points against the Bills. The Cowboys offense has been pathetic this season and in their last eleven games are averaging just 14.3 points per game. Since Romo’s been out since the Thanksgiving game, they’re averaging just 12.0 points per game in their last five. They haven’t scored more than one offensive touchdown since the November 22 game at Miami in Romo’s return.
There are a lot of unknowns in this game so this one’s a pass for me. Dallas qualifies in a 701-526-41 fundamental rushing situation and my model predicts a 3.3 point Cowboys win so I’m going to lean their way.
CHICAGO (-1) 23 Detroit 21
Another game where the outcome is meaningless in regards to the playoff picture but probably not meaningless to the coaches and players. Lions head coach Jim Caldwell is on the hot seat and a win here might help his cause while coach Fox wants to end his initial season as Bears head coach in a positive way.
From a match-up/scheme perspective, Caldwell is familiar with Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase's offense as it has a lot of elements from Indianapolis' offense when he was there –although that didn’t prevent the Bears from scoring 34 points in their previous meeting back in Week 6 (a 37-34 Lions victory). On the season the Bears offense has been slightly below average overall and I suspect they’ll have a harder time scoring in this game against a Lions defense that has really picked it up since their bye week. Since then then Lions are 5-2 SU and ATS, winning against the spread by an average of 7.8 points per game and allowing just 19.3 points per game. They have only allowed more than 70 yards rushing twice.
Improvements have also been seen with an offense that has averaged 26.4 points per game since Jim Bob Cooter took control as offensive coordinator after the bye. Matthew Stafford has thrived, throwing 14 touchdowns and one interception over the past six games.
The Bears will be missing one of their playmakers on offense as Alshon Jeffery won't play in this one because of an ailing hamstring and defensively, their best interior defender (nose-tackle and second-round draft pick Eddie Goldman) is out with an injured right ankle. Adjusting for the Lions since the bye week, I have this game lined about right (Chicago -.7) but Detroit qualifies in a negative 22-41-1 situation that plays against certain teams playing in the cold. However, the Lions realize they need to acclimate and will practice outside Thursday and Friday to get ready for the weather in Chicago on Sunday. No real opinion on this one but based on the situation it’s a slight lean to the Bears.
Oakland (+7) 20 KANSAS CITY 23
The Chiefs have a Wild Card spot locked up but a victory over the Raiders in combination with a Denver loss to San Diego would give the Chiefs the AFC West division title, the AFC's third seed and a home game in the wild-card round. While a Denver loss is unlikely (they are 9 point favorites over San Diego) anything is possible (see the Steelers/Ravens last week), and Chiefs coach Andy Reid says that he’ll play the starters and will play to win the game. Some of those starters, however, are banged up and likely won’t play - notable players including Justin Houston and Tamba Hali.
On the other side, first year head coach Jack Del Rio is attempting to build something with the Raiders and a big first step would be an 8-8 record after losing 13, 12, and 12 games the last three years. They’ll be focused on getting the win here to reach that first year milestone. They’ll also be focused on sending Charles Woodson out a winner as this will be the last game in his illustrious career.
The Chiefs are the better team but I don’t like the spot for Kansas City and my model favors the Chiefs by just 4.9 points. In addition, Oakland qualifies in a 157-101-9 late season situation. I like the Raiders plus the points.
Tampa Bay (+10.5) 20 CAROLINA 26
Carolina can clinch the #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win here but they showed some cracks in their first loss of the season last week in Atlanta and I don’t think this win will come easy. Tampa matches up well with the Panthers and will be fired up to end their season on a positive note after dropping their last three games. The Bucs are playing better defensively at this point and are good against the run – the focus of Carolina’s offense. In fact, the Bucs have been one of the better run defending units in the NFL this season – allowing 3.6 ypr to teams that gain 4.1 ypr. From a yards-per-play perspective Carolina has actually been below average passing the ball – averaging 222 passing yards at 6.6 yps against teams that allow 249 yards at 6.7 yps, but they have made the big plays when needed, particularly in the red zone with a 66.1% conversion rate – good for #3 in the league. Tampa’s red zone defense hasn’t been particularly good – allowing a 61.5% conversion rate - but if there is just a touch of regression to the mean this game will be close.
That’s because the Bucs have the statistical profile of a good team from a yards-per-play angle – featuring a run game that has been one of the best – averaging 140 rushing yards at 5.0 ypr per game to go along with a passing offense has also been productive with a +.2 yps advantage. The problem has been that their red zone offense has been below average – scoring touchdowns 54.2% of the time against defenses that allow touchdowns in the red zone 60.4% of the time. Again, just a touch of regression to the mean and Tampa would be right in the mix.
Another key stat that explains a lot of the Panthers success but isn’t all that predictive is their league leading +19 turnover differential (including +7 in net fumbles). The Bucs are -4 in net turnovers including -2 in net fumbles and while they have played well from the line of scrimmage, their poor red zone and turnovers numbers have derailed their season. If turnovers are even in this game the final score will be much closer than the point-spread suggests. My model predicts a close game and only favors the Panthers by a half-point and that difference is enough to trigger a math play on the Bucs. However, Carolina qualifies in a good 112-62-4 home favorite situation that will prevent me from playing Tampa. Just a lean to the Bucs plus the points.
San Diego (+9) 19 DENVER 22
The Broncos need a win to guarantee their fifth consecutive AFC West title and to secure a first-round bye in the postseason. They can also clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win and an unlikely New England loss. On the other side, San Diego has pride to play for but have played competitively despite being banged up and out of playoff contentions for some time now. In their previous meeting in San Diego back in Week 13, the Chargers had problems scoring, mustering just 3 points. That will probably be the case once again in this game against a Denver defense that is the leagues’ best - allowing just 282 total yards at 4.4 yppl against teams that gain 349 yards at 5.5 yppl.
The difference in this game might be the San Diego defense, which after looking lost for the majority of the season, have played much better in recent weeks. In their past four games the Chargers have only allowed an average of 16.0 points per game. Facing a Broncos offense that has struggled (averaging 5.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.6 yppl and scoring an average of 20.5 points with Brock Osweiler starting) the San Diego defense should do just enough to keep this game within the large number.
The Chargers will also be the better rested team – they had 10 days between games after playing in the last Thursday night game, while the Broncos, after playing in a competitive overtime game on Monday night have had just six days. Denver is a bit banged up and in the last game of a long season coming off a short week – I see this difference as significant.
In addition, the Broncos have been a bit lucky this season in regards to their turnover numbers – they are +8 in net fumbles while the Chargers have been unlucky with a -5 season tally. If there is a little regression to the mean in the fumble department and turnovers are just even in this game, the Chargers should cover this inflated number.
San Diego qualifies in a 500-405-25 situation and my model only favors the Broncos by 4.9 points. This should be a low scoring game and with a point-spread this high in a divisional game I like San Diego plus the points.
Minnesota (+3.5) 24 GREEN BAY 22
For the third straight season the Packers will play for the NFC North title in the regular-season finale. Two years ago they beat the Chicago Bears on the road and last year they beat the Lions at Lambeau Field to win it. Minnesota will look to break that streak at two, and they have the ability and match-ups to do it. Both teams are already in the playoffs but the winner of Sunday night's game will capture the NFC North and the home playoff game that goes with it.
The Vikings are a resilient team and with a 12-3 ATS record have been playing above expectations all season long. This game sets up well for them as an underdog and travelling to a place where they are 0-5-1 in their last six meetings and against a team that they are 1-10-1 against in the past 12 meetings. Those are just the sorts of stats coach Mike Zimmer will use to motivate his team to have an extra edge in this game. The fact that they were crushed 30-13 earlier this season against the Packers will add further fuel to the motivational fire.
The Vikings are the better team right now and have some distinct match-up advantages that will work in their favor. First off, the Minnesota defensive line is very deep and very good and has just gotten better as the season has progressed. The Vikings are generating pressure from Everson Griffen, Danielle Hunter and Brian Robison, and have a tough-to-handle inside pass-rusher in Tom Johnson, who is their fourth defensive lineman with at least five sacks. With Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith back in the Vikings' defense Zimmer has his full complement of weapons for his blitz packages. Their pass rush is starting to come alive with nine sacks in their past two games, just in time to face a leaky and banged up offensive line that last week allowed Aaron Rodgers to be sacked nine times. Left tackle is a problem for the Packers right now as David Bakhtiari may not be back for this game and his replacement, Don Barclay, allowed four of the nine sacks the Cardinals registered last week.
In addition, the Packers offense is just not the same due in large part to lack of speed on the perimeter which has caused Rodgers to hold the ball longer and take more hits. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing offense is well below average from a yards-per-play perspective – generating just 215 passing yards per game at 5.7 yps against teams that allow 232 yards at 6.2 yps. Facing a Vikings defense that has only allowed an average of 19 points per game, Green Bay is going to have trouble scoring.
On the other side, Minnesota will rely on their strong ground game that averages 138 rushing yards at 4.8 ypr to power their offense against a Packers rush defense that is below average (allowing 112 yards at 4.5 yr) and banged up. Packers defensive linemen B.J. Raji, Mike Daniels, and Letroy Guion have all been dealing with injuries and have been out or limited in practice this week. I expect the Vikings to move the ball well on the ground in this game.
In addition, Teddy Bridgewater has picked up his play the last few weeks and has been very good on the road. In the Minnesota Vikings' last three games, Bridgewater has completed 70.4% of his passes for 734 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. In his last six road games Bridgewater is 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS and has totaled 1,421 passing yards with six touchdowns and just two interceptions to go along with a 94.6 passer rating.
The Vikings are catching Green Bay at the right time, are the better team right now, and have the motivation and match-ups to win this game. I don’t have any significant situations that apply and my model thinks it’s a fair line but I like the match-ups and the motivational angle for what I think is the better team. I like the Vikings plus the points.