Art Aronson
Chargers vs. Broncos
Play: Broncos -9
If Denver wins today, it will clinch the AFC West Crown and a coveted first round bye. San Diego has scored thirty or more points twice in its last five games, but has also managed just a field goal in three of its last six. We have a hard time imagining Philip Rivers posting a huge day vs. this top ranked defensive unit, which will be playing with a chip on its shoulder with so much on the line. San Diego will already have its bags packed and will simply be going through the motions in the final week of the year, the team has been out of the playoff hunt for weeks, a victim of several costly injuries this season. Also note that the Chargers have a high draft pick on the line, this is a team which wants to lose this weekend, while keeping its starters safe and warm on the sidelines. In our professional opinion, a plethora of different situational factors are indeed all pointing to the BRONCOS as the savvy move in this contest.
AC Dinero
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
Play: New York Giants -5
Both teams had disappointing seasons and are out of the playoff picture. Philly fired head coach Chip Kelly and will be looking for a new direction next season. It's hard to see them showing up for the finale. The Giants are in a similar situation. Head coach Tom Coughlin will likely be gone next season. He's done a lot for this team as coach, including two superbowls. I see the Giants showing up and sending him out a winner
Jim Feist
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Pick: Buffalo Bills
The Jets bring a five-game win streak into today's contest, after beating the Patriots last week in OT. This is a very well balanced Jets team, with the offense ranked 11th in scoring and the defense ranked 7th. Overall, the offense is 8th in yards and the defense 6th in yards allowed. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been better than expected. The veteran has thrown very few INT's while making big plays on offense. Behind Fitz, the offense has scored at least 17 points in every game this year and 20 or more in 12 games. The Jets control their own destiny in the playoff pictures. A win or tie today and the Jets will face one of the Wild Card teams. A loss today, and they would need the Steelers to lose to the Browns. As for the Bills, while they may not be going to the postseason, they are looking at today's game as their own Super Bowl. The Bills are coming off a win last week at home over the Cowboys, 16-6. The Bills will be without RB LeSean McCoy (knee). Rex Ryan would like nothing better than beating his old team here today and keeping them from the playoffs. Tyrod Taylor has been very good for the Bills and will be the key to a win here today. The Jets have been very good all season, but we know how these "must win" teams can choke in the final week. Especially against a instate rival and one coached by Rex Ryan. I'm going to take the small points here with the Bills on Sunday.
Brandon Shively
New York at Buffalo
Play: Buffalo +2½
Buffalo has beaten the Jets four straight meetings including a win earlier this year in New York. While the Bills can't make the playoffs, I can guarantee you they would like to play spoiler to the Jets and not let them in.
In the first meeting this year, the Bills were a 2.5 point dog on the road and now for them to be a field goal underdog at home screams inflation to me based on the Jets 'must win' scenario. I'm not buying it.
The Jets are coming off a huge, emotional win over the Patriots in overtime. That was a great win for the team (and me), but they do not have much time to celebrate and the pressure is mounting for the team.
The Bills are 3-0 SU and ATS their last three home games. A win today will put them at .500 on the season and give them momentum for next season. I don't see them laying down here.
Buffalo has won four in a row and five of the last six against the Jets. The Jets have lost the last three meetings on the road by 21, 23, and 35 points. Rex Ryan was the former Jets coach last year and I can guarantee you he would love to not see the Jets go to the playoffs and he would like for his team (Bills) to be the one to do it.
Bryan Leonard
Minnesota / Green Bay Under
This game sets up as a low scoring divisional battle, with the winner clinching the division and the loser gaining the wild card. Therefore we expect both squads to play conservatively on offense as turnovers could play a major factor. Green Bay is sure to stack the box and limit the success of Peterson. But the Vikings haven’t shown the ability to throw the ball effectively. And they continue to hand the ball off in poor running situations. Green Bay will be hampered by a banged up offensive line which will put Rodgers in jeopardy. We expect Green Bay to feature the run which will keep pressure off the quarterback. Both these teams know each other very well, so its unlikely we see a margin on either side.
Sports Data Query Group
San Diego +9.5
The Chargers lost to the Raiders in overtime on the road last week and now they have to visit the Broncos. Denver, however, have had a hard time covering vs a divisional opponent that is playing their second straight road game, going 0-8 ATS as a home favorite over a divisional opponent that played on the road the previous week
The Chargers are, of course, a passing team. Denver has had a lot of trouble keeping passing teams outside the number. The Broncos are 0-16 ATS as a home favorite with more than three days rest when facing a team that has an average completion percentage of at least 63.4 and has averaged more than 175 passing yards per game.
They have had three games in this spot this season. They lost to the Chiefs 29-13 laying 4.5, they lost to the Raiders 15-12 and they beat the Bengals 20-17 in overtime laying 4
The Chargers play up or down to the level of their opponent and are at their best on the road vs a team with more wins. Specifically, San Diego is 14-0 ATS when visiting a team with more wins.
Finally, it is worth mentioning that the Chargers are 8-0 ATS (+7.19 ppg) on the road when they lost their last two on the road. Rivers is a fierce competitor and we expect he’ll keep the Chargers inside this number.
CH Ballers
Vikings at Packers
Play: Packers -3
We like the Packers at home with the division on the line. A loss would mean the Packers got swept by the NFC North in Lambeau, which we don't see happening. We expect a motivated Green Bay offense to play well, much like their meeting with Minnesota, and that the Vikings limited offense won't be able to keep up.
Tony Finn
NY Jets -3
Believing and supporting the “must-win” situation in any sporting event, especially the National Football League, has never been a high percentage investment. The situation often presents itself in the final two weeks of the NFL regular season slate and it is quite fitting today’s Week #17 betting board pits former Jets head coach Rex Ryan and his now Buffalo Bills against his former team at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The NFL Free Pick of the Day offer up a contest between the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills today from upstate Ralph Wilson Stadium.
The Bills are the final obstacle standing in the way of a playoff berth for the Big Apple Jets and the visitors get a second crack at their former bench boss, who was fired after six seasons and immediately hired by Buffalo last January, today with its first postseason bid since 2010 at stake.
Jets
While never being a strong supporter of New York signal-caller Ryan Fitzpatrick the journeyman quarterback is enjoying a career campaign. Contrary to Ryan’s Jet squads Todd Bowles’ New York team has the ability to put points on the board. The Jets are one of the Top-5 teams balanced teams in the league, both offensively and defensively. The Jets is one of the few teams to rank in the Top-10 in total yards and defensively in yards against.
Fitzpatrick and tailbacks Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell were absent from part of practice this week but are all expected to be active for today’s big game. Fitzpatrick has thrown 29 touchdown passes, which surprisingly, puts him one TD pass from setting a Jet single season record.
Wide outs Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker offer Fitzpatrick viable weapons in blustery conditions, which are expected today, as both are terrific possession receivers with great hands. The Jets’ offense is balanced so today’s forecast for wind and snow won’t prevent the Jets from playing a large portion of today’s game on the Bills side of the field. Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold is healthy, again, and the offense led by the Ivy League quarterback is in great form.
Bills
Known and hired for his ability as a defensive mechanic Ryan inherited a strong defensive squad with his move to Buffalo. However, the Bills stop-unit has been a disappointment under the leadership of Ryan. Buffalo led the NFL with 54 sacks last year, but entering today’s season finale the unit has a mere 20, this season. Buffalo quarterback Tyrod Taylor is anything but healthy but his start today gains him a one-million dollar performance bonus, so he will start and play, despite being 100 percent healthy. Taylor’s quarterback rating has taken a hit since injuring his shoulder. His QB rating has been 81 or less in two of the team’s last three tilts.
The teams top running back, LeSean McCoy, is doubtful today with a knee injury. Buffalo is, in simple terms, playing out the season. They will finish the year with a record of .500 or less, win or lose, and will miss the league playoffs for a record 16th consecutive season. It is not a stretch to report that our sources have said that the morale in Buffalo is low and the group is looking forward to the short offseason that begins at the end of today’s affair.
Outlook
The Jets never had a season ending winning record under the leadership of Ryan during his four-year tenure and the playoffs were never a serious consideration. This year, under Bowles, it is a different story. The Jets are capable -- both offensively and defensively -- to handle the expected weather conditions today in Buffalo. And most important, this Jets squad is better prepared under Bowles, not just throughout this season compared to years past, but today, at Ralph Wilson, as well.
The Jets are in control of their own destiny and could still earn a playoff berth with a loss if Pittsburgh loses to Cleveland but they will be playing not only to win, but to beat their old coach. The players were not happy in the first meeting between the two AFC East foes. Ryan celebrated on the field after his new team edged the Jets 22-17. In that game a healthy and still motivated defense registered two interceptions, recovered a fumble and stopped the Jets inside the Bills' 10 in the final minutes.
Chris Jordan
Normally, this would be a game flying over the radar, as the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons are generally playing for the postseason, and fire away offensively. With so little to play for, and a lot of disappointment with both teams, I honestly don't think this is a game worth paying attention to. For betting purposes, it's worth investing in, as I have the game falling on 44 points.
Saints quarterback Drew Brees is playing with limited mobility thanks to a torn plantar fascia in his right foot. He isn't going to be going all out in this game, mark my words. The last thing he wants to do is further damage anything in his legs. he is 37 years old, and there's no telling if he has a wife who can order HGH during the offseason.
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is also playing the tough guy role, as he got knocked down several times last week after taking some hard hits in Atlanta's 20-13 upset win over Carolina. He will be cautious under center today as well.
Look for the running games to prevail in this one, which means a running clock, and a lower scoring game than expected.
3* Saints/Falcons Under
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for today: San Diego at DENVER (-9)
The STORYLINE in this game today - It's been quite a strange season for the Denver Broncos, but the result is no different than what we've seen since Peyton Manning arrived - they're in the playoffs. Today, to end the regular season, it'll be a stingy defense that will be taking care of business against the San Diego Chargers.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor in this game is Denver's stop unit, which is shaping up to be one of the best in leeague history. The Broncos might be the first team since the 1970 merger to lead the league in total defense, scoring defense, sacks, and pass defense. As of now, they lead in three of the four. San Diego brings a futile offense that has won just four games this season. The Broncos are going to dominate.
BOTTOM LINE is - Aiding us in this play, is the frigid weather. The hapless Chargers - who might be playing in a new stadium with the Raiders next season, and in L.A. - are terrible, plain and simple. Now you send them to cold weather to close the season, when they're used to playing in Southern California?
4* DENVER
Scott Delaney
The last time these two met, it was in Seattle, where the Arizona Cardinals pulled off a 39-32 victory over the Seahawks. Much has changed since then, as the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks look much stronger defensively.
They went on to win five straight and clinched a playoff berth before stumbling last week at home against St. Louis. Now they head to Glendale to face the defensive staunch Cardinals, who have won nine in a row, including a 38-8 blowout of Green Bay last Sunday.
Arizona has clinched a first-round playoff bye and with another strong effort, could nab the No. 1 seed, and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
The Carolina Panthers would have to lose, but anything is possible.
I see this one being a physical tussle, and the exact opposite of the first meeting, setting the tone for what may be a preview of the NFC Championship, pending how the bracket plays out.
Play this one low today.
5* Seahawks/Cardinals Under
Michael Alexander
Arizona vs. Arizona State
Play: Arizona -3
Arizona is expected to return a key player from injury when the No. 7 Wildcats open Pac-12 Conference play Sunday at Arizona State. Kaleb Tarczewski has missed the last eight games with a stress reaction and strained muscle in his left foot, but the 7-foot starting center will appear in a limited role off the bench against the Sun Devils, according to Arizona coach Sean Miller. Even if his offensive game takes time to get in sync, Tarczewski should give Arizona's post defense a boost against an Arizona State team that could be without second-leading scorer and top rebounder Savon Goodman, who has missed the last four games due to personal reasons. Tra Holder has ratcheted up his offensive game in Goodman's absence, averaging 19.3 points over the last four games to bump his season mark to a team-high 14.5. The 6-1 sophomore guard scored a career-high 23 points Monday in a 75-59 win against Cal State Bakersfield and should own the matchup advantage against Arizona point guard Kadeem Allen. It's the other two starting guards for the Wildcats, senior Gabe York and freshman Allonzo Trier, who will be difficult to contain for Arizona State.
Brandon Lee
Cardinals -6.5
The perception here is that Seattle will be out for revenge and given their strong play down the stretch will be able to keep this game competitive and cover the touchdown spread. I don’t think that’s going to be the case at all. Last week my favorite play on the board Sunday was the Rams +13 and many of the same reasons I liked St Louis apply to this game. Seattle doesn’t have anything to gain right now. The Seahawks are locked into a Wild Card spot with Arizona having already clinched the division. They don’t care if they have to go on the road to face the Redskins or the winner of the NFC North, their only focus is to get healthy for the playoffs. Arizona on the other hand, has no choice but to play their starters and try and secure a win in hopes of Tampa Bay pulling off the upset and getting the No. 1 seed. I also think it’s important to play hard in Week 17 when you have a bye. I’ll take my chances here with the Cardinals -6.5 on Sunday.
Mike Lundin
Blazers vs. Nuggets
Play: Blazers -125
The Portland Trail Blazers might have Damian Lillard back from injury for this contest as the point guard was back in practice Saturday. With or without Lillard, I still like the Trail Blazers here as they have a red hot C.J. McCollum (AVG 32.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 6.3 assists L3 games) and will be facing a Denver team that played its socks off in a 111-108 OT loss at Golden State last night. The Nuggets are just 1-13-1 ATS at home after a game on the road, 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and the Trail Blazers have had good success in recent visits to Pepsi Center covering the spread in five of the last seven. Portland had a three-game winning streak ended with a 109-86 loss at Utah Thursday, but they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % below .400 and should get the job done against what I expect to be a both tired and demoralized Nuggets team.
Larry Ness
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
Seattle lost at home 39-32 to the Panthers in Week 10, dropping to 4-5 on the season. However, QB Russell Wilson threw for 363 yards in three TDs in that game and he and the Seattle offense had NOT looked back until last Sunday. Seattle had won and covered its last FIVE games with Wilson delivering 19 TD passes without a SINGLE interception (in 148 attempts), while averaging 284.0 YPG through the air. Seattle averaged 34.2 PPG in its five-game winning streak and in the process clinched a wild card spot. Wilson was 31-4 SU at home as a starter (including the postseason), with Seattle going 23-11-1 ATS in those games.
After blowing a Week 1 visit to St Louis 34-31 in OT, was it possible Seattle could lose at home last Sunday to the Rams, who were playing Case Keenum at QB? Remember, this is the NFL, and the Seahawks not only lost to the Rams but with under 30 seconds to go in the game, had scored just 10 points. A TD made the final 23-17. You just can’t make this stuff up. Meanwhile, the Cardinals were “taking apart” the Packers, in a 38-8 rout. After Carolina had lost to Atlanta earlier in the day, all of sudden, the Cardinals can claim the NFC’s No. 1 seed by beating Seattle in this game but ONLY if the Panthers lose at home to the Bucs, earlier this afternoon. Not possible? See the Rams/Seahawks game last Sunday.
The Cardinals say they won't rest anyone they have available for Sunday's regular-season finale as they possibly go for the NFC's top playoff seed against the visiting Seahawks. "I don't think you get anything out of resting guys, especially playing a team that's in our division and we haven't beaten them at home in a couple of years," Arizona coach Bruce Arians said. "We don't want to start a precedent now." Arizona (13-2) has set a franchise record for wins in a season and can match another from 1948 with its 10th straight victory. Besides looking to sweep the Seahawks (9-6) for the first time since 2009, the Cardinals could also send a message in a preview of a possible playoff matchup.
Palmer is 26-4 SU in his last 30 starts with Arizona but here’s the thing. I’m relying on Carolina to “take care of business” against the Bucs, as after a 14-0 start, losing the No. 1 seed in Week 17 by losing at home to Tampa Bay, would be a momentum-killer. I realize Arians says “everyone’s” playing but REALLY? Anyway, when’s the last time you got to take Seattle as a TD underdog?