Frank Jordan
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: New York Jets -3
The Jets need to do one thing and they are in the playoffs, WIN. Buffalo would like nothing more than to knock off the Jets especially the Bills head coach Rex Ryan who is their former coach. The Jets are 10-5 and on a current five game winning streak as they enter this game. On the road the Jets are 4-3 and have won three of their first five within the division. Buffalo is coming off a win and are 7-8 on the year and would like nothing more than to beat their division rival and finish the year at .500. Buffalo is also 3-2 within the division and have played well at home with a 4-3 record. Buffalo won a few weeks earlier at the Jets 22-17 on a Thursday night. After that loss the Jets lost to Houston, but haven't lost since. Look for a dog fight of a game on the ground with the weather cold with the Jets returning the favor and win at the Bills as they know they win they are in the playoffs and its so close they can taste it and will drive them in a 27-20 victory.
SPORTS WAGERS
CLEVELAND +11 over Pittsburgh
Losing to the Ravens last week was likely due to the hangover of beating the Broncos and Bengals over two straight weeks. Now that the Steelers paid the price for letting down their guard, they have to win this game to get in and hope that the Jets lose in Buffalo. The Jets are playing at the exact same time in Buffalo. If the Jets defeat Buffalo, it matters not what the Steelers do because a Jets win eliminates Pittsburgh. Regardless, that Jets/Bills game figures to be close and that means the Steelers have to play hard and hope for a minor Bills’ upset. The problem for the Steelers, however, is that their defense can’t stop the marching band and it’ll be a cold day in hell before we spot 11 road points with a defense like the one they’ll field today.
Just like the Ravens played their “Super Bowl” last week, the Browns will play their ‘Super Bowl” this week. The chance to officially knock the Steelers out of the playoffs will give this franchise and players some real dignity. Motivation for Cleveland or lack thereof will be no issue whatsoever. The Earthtones have been one of the laughing stocks of this league for a long time and never more so than they were after that bizarre loss to the Ravens in prime-time back in Week 12. Back in Week 10, the Brownies lost in Pittsburgh 30-9. They lost in Cincinnati 37-3 in Week 13 and 30-13 in Seattle in Week 15. However, the Browns were also going through some turmoil in the latter part of the season but they nearly pulled off an upset in K.C. last week as an 11-point pooch. They played hard and they played to win against a K.C. team that was hot and that was in a “must win” game as well. The Brownies will play hard this week too. Johnny Manziel only went 13-32 last week in K.C. but he was a gamer and we expect Austin Davis to come in here with absolutely nothing to lose and play with rekless abandon. Davis could have some success against Pittsburgh’s leaky defense. Double-digit home dogs have a high cover rate. The price on the Steelers is an inflated one because the market loves the “must win” angle. We love it too. We love to fade it because we get inflated points and because the team that must win, loses most of the time and rarely covers.
Jacksonville +6½ over HOUSTON
Houston's spot isn't guaranteed but a long list of breaks would have to go bad for the Texans not to host an AFC Wild Card game next weekend. In other words, Houston MISSING the playoffs would be equivalent to hitting a 12-game parlay. Houston has played well in the second half despite their revolving door at quarterback. The Texans are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games. They're even 3-0 their last three times out as the chalk. Their great defense and the playmaking of star wideout DeAndre Hopkins make them a formidable opponent most weeks. The Texans head into Week 17 atop the injury plagued AFC South. Three of the four teams in the division have suffered significant injuries to their starting quarterbacks and the Texans are no exception with Brandon Weeden being the next man up. That’s right, Cleveland and Dallas reject Brandon Weeden, the fourth man on the Texans QB totem pole is backing up Brian Hoyer, who cleared concussion protocol this week and gets this start. Whether Hoyer lasts four quarters or gets relieved in the second half remains to be seen but we’re not comfortable spotting -6½ points with either one of those castoffs.
Blake Bortles may have won a few fantasy football championships last week with his four touchdown performance in The Big Easy but we watched that game and the Saints never trailed in an easy victory. There's hope for these Jaguars, however. They have some very nice players on offence starting with their quarterback. Jacksonville's chance at a division title ended last week in New Orleans but it has to feel pretty good to be in a playoff hunt all the way to Week 16 when they are used to being eliminated in October. Now the Jags can go out with even more pride. Despite their greatly improved offense, the Jags Achilles Heel this season has been their defense but any defense with a pulse can stop the Texans. Prior to scoring 34 on the three-and-out Titans last week, Houston scored just 16 and 6 the previous two weeks on Indy and New England.
The truth is even if the Texans lose, the cluster muck of events that has to transpire for the Colts to get in instead of them is almost comical. Not only are the Texans a hugely risky favorite but we have to question how motivated they’ll be, knowing that they have a playoff game on deck. The Jags are not likely going home silently. They have played hard all year and they’re likely going to play hard again this week against a division foe. No matter what the situation, the Jags taking back significant points against Houston is far more appealing than the other way around.
Oakland +7 Over KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs have won nine games in a row and could win the AFC West in Week 17 if the Broncos lose at home to the Chargers. Counting on Denver losing is an unreasonable expectation but in the minds of bettors, the Chiefs have become a juggernaut and that’s something we can take advantage of with this inflated number. Andy Reid is conservative on his best day. With a playoff game on deck next week, his instructions to Alex Smith will be "DO NOT GET HIT" by running the ball. DO NOT target receivers that are in line to get hit". Andy Reid will play to stay healthy and it would be of no surprise if Alex Smith and many other first team players sat in the second half, as this one goes at the same time as the Denver/San Diego game. If the Broncs have a decent lead (they’re a 10-point favorite), that makes this wager even more appealing. Even if that isn’t the case, the Raiders still hold tremendous value here. You see, Alex Smith is overdue for a 20-25 performance for three yards and this is the week something like that can happen. The Chiefs are not a juggernaut. Eight of those aforementioned victories came against non-playoff teams. The Chiefs exist now as early round playoff lunch meat.
The Raiders improved in leaps and bounds this season and had their two-point loss to the Bears and their five- point loss to the Lions gone the other way, this game would be for a Wild Card. The Raiders can close out the season with a .500 record if they win here and they have a good chance to do just that while snapping the Chief’s ridiculous nine-game winning streak. Now we get Derek Carr plus a converted TD against Alex Smith and the conservative play-calling of Andy Reid in a what is likely going to turn out to be a virtual meaningless game. That works for us.
BUFFALO +117 over N.Y. Jets
The Jets have been on a hell of run reeling off five straight wins to put themselves in the playoff hunt. New York caught a major break when the Steelers lost to the Ravens last week, which allows them to control their own destiny. A win at Buffalo and the Jets are in but if they lose, they'll need Pittsburgh to falter again this week against the Browns. Obviously, the Jets aren't counting on Cleveland. The Jets are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five including last Sunday's outright win against the Patriots. What happened in overtime has been debated all week. Did coach Belichick really call for his team to kick the ball away if they won the toss? We may never know but it doesn't really matter, as the betting world saw these Jets win as a +2½ point home dog. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been on fire with 13 touchdowns and just one interception on this win streak. Fitzy will be looking to stick it to his former club while taking his new mates to the Promised Land. The Bills cut him in 2012 after signing him to a big money deal.
Rex Ryan's first year in Buffalo went about as well as everyone expected outside of those in Upstate New York. The welcome wagon was out in full force, as “Sexy Rexy” became the talk of the town. He instantly became the face of a franchise and fan base that's desperate for any kind of success. Buffalo was going to be rougher and tougher this year. They may have accomplished those two things but what they didn't do was get any smarter. The Bills are the most penalized team in the league with over nine infractions a game. It's hurt them all year on offense and defense. The last time these two teams played, Ryan celebrated like he won the Super Bowl jumping up and down on the sidelines after the Bills beat the Jets in New York on Thursday Night Football. The Bills hope for a playoff run fizzled the last six weeks of the season, as they went just 2-4.
These teams played seven weeks ago in New Jersey. Since then, New York has been on a great run while the Bills went into the crapper. This line opened with the Jets as -1½ point fav and is up now to near -3. The public is siding with the “must win” Jets while the Bills will play for nothing but pride and a chance to knock the Jets out. These guys are pros and while Buffalo's season has been a disappointment, they've got a chance to drag a division foe down with them. Misery loves company and Rex Ryan and the Bills would love for Gang Green to join them on the post season sidelines. Buffalo is a tough place to play any time of year and as a home dog ready to take a bite, this is an appealing spot. Ryan likely promised his guys the world for a victory because in his mind, this is exactly how karma works. The must win angle is one we love to fade because the number is almost always inflated on the must win team and they rarely win anyway. Bills outright is the call.
GREEN BAY -3½ over Minnesota
It was a huge week in Minnesota after the Vikings finally won a prime time game by dominating the Giants on Sunday Night. The Purple People Eaters swallowed Eli Manning whole with four sacks and three interceptions. Eli was on the run all night and his biggest play, a touchdown bomb to Rueben Randle in garbage time, was thrown out of sheer desperation as Peyton's little brother ran for his life. The Vikings beat the G-Men from pillar to post and clinched a playoff berth in the process. Now they travel to Green Bay with revenge on their minds and a division title in their sights.
The Pack limps home after a complete implosion against the Cardinals. Green Bay hasn't been the lock they once were at Lambeau. Green Bay is only 1-2 at home since the bye, losing to both the Bears and Lions. They haven't defeated a team with a winning record since they beat these Vikings in Week 11. They only have two other W's over teams currently over .500, both of which were early season victories over Seattle and Kansas City when Rodgers and company were firing on all cylinders. The Green and Gold seemingly peaked at the midway point of the season and they don't look primed for much of a playoff run. The Packers have covered three of their last four games but those were against Dallas, Oakland and a Hail Mary win in Detroit.
Not much has changed since the last time these two teams played six week ago. The Vikings are again coming off a big win and Green Bay is playing poorly. The Vikings would appear to have the advantage in this rematch. They have a better defense and a better running game. Furthermore, the Vikes have been a great bet on the road going 7-0 this season ATS. However, one thing the Vikes cannot do is beat Aaron Rodgers and the Pack, which is a huge psychological edge the Packers enjoy. In fact, Green Bay has owned the Vikings in this series since #12 showed up. Aside from a tie in 2013 they've won by nine or more in four of their last five meetings in Wisconsin.
Should the Vikings lose here, there's a chance that they'll have to come back next week for round three with this division foe. Most importantly, however, is that the Vikings are getting a ton of respect from odds makers. This line opened at GB -3, which is the smallest spread the Packers have seen at home this season. What we have here is an overreaction to both teams’ results from last week. Minnesota blew out the G-Men while the Pack was getting blown out in Arizona. That provides us with this buy low/sell high opportunity and it’s one we’re not about to miss.
Note: We're going to wait until Sunday night to wager on this one, as it goes at 8:30 PM EST. We trust we'll get a better number and it also gives us a chance to track the steam for a prime time game. We'll update this after the late afternoon games on Sunday.
Matt Fargo
llinois St. vs. Drake
Pick: Drake
Unfortunately for Drake, the schedulemakers did it no favors in opening its conference slate with a game at Wichita St. The Bulldogs lost by 20 points in that game on Thursday as they were held to a season low 47 points. Now they head home for their first MVC game on their home floor where they are 3-2 this season. They have been hit with some close losses including a six-point loss against Iowa which is coming off back-to-back wins over top ten teams. Drake has been swept the last two seasons against Illinois St. which adds to the motivation this afternoon. The Redbirds rolled against Missouri St. in its conference opener which came at home on Wednesday. On the season they are 6-2 at home but just 1-5 in six games away from home. Drake currently ranks eighth in the nation in three-point shooting at 42.8 percent and it has shot 40 percent or better from the arc in 10 of its 13 games. This is an issue for the Redbirds that have allowed opponents to hit 38 percent from long range their last five games. Illinois St. is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games while going 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games after two or more consecutive wins. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
Harry Bondi
Baltimore / Cincinnati Under 42
Expect a defensive battle today in Cinci as these two divisional rivals square off. The Bengals have gone under in seven-straight games when the line is less than 49 points while Baltimore is 0-4 ATS to the under when the line is more than 41. These two teams have also combined to go 1-12 ATS to the under in the month of December the last five years. The game will feature two back-up QBs, so look for both teams to play conservative and run the ball.
River City Sharps
New Orleans Saints +6
The Atlanta Falcons won their Super Bowl last week as they knocked off the previously undefeated Carolina Panthers. Now, the Falcons will finish off a disappointing season as they host the New Orleans Saints, who also failed to meet expectations this year. The Saints have won three of the last five meetings, including a 31-21 win in Week 6 that handed Atlanta its first loss of the season. The Falcons are just 2-9 ATS over their past 11 games and now they are laying 6 points to the Saints in what is a meangless game for both teams? We will gladly take a shot here with the road puppy and think Atlanta has hangover from last week's big win. The Sharps say...
Vegas Butcher
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +11
While the Panthers are playing for the #1 seed, it’s not like they need to win by 12+ points to get it. I think this line is definitely inflated a bit just for that reason, as my model has that one at 29-20 Carolina. There are a couple of factors going against the Panthers here. First, Jonathan Stewart and now Fozzy Whitaker are out. That leaves the run-game to rookie Cameron Artis-Payne, a guy with 31 carries in 6 games played this year. Clearly the Panthers aren’t too comfortable using him, but will be forced to do so on Sunday. In the two games without Stewart, Panthers won by 3 @ NYG and lost by 7 @ ATL. I’m not saying that he’s solely the reason why they haven’t been as dominant lately, but running the ball effectively is a huge part of what Panthers do offensively, and Stewart’s absence is a bigger factor than most might think. Keep in mind that in addition to having key injuries to their RB’s, the Panthers are going up against the 7th ranked run-D in this matchup. If Tampa can effectively minimize the impact of Panthers’ run-game, I think Carolina will struggle moving the ball offensively. Another key factor here is the fact that Ted Ginn Jr won’t play (listed as doubtful). He’s the only deep-threat Carolina has, and without his ability to stretch the field, Tampa can bring their safeties in, and concentrate contain Newton and the run-game. I think this could be a tough game for Carolina’s offense, similar to what happened in the first meeting between the two. In that game, Bucs limited the Panthers to only 244 total yards, allowed 4.3 YPP and only 4.6 PY/A, and held them to 3 for 11 on 3rd downs. They lost by 15 due to a 5 : 1 TO-differential, with one INT returned for a TD. There was also a fluky 57-yard offensive fumble recovery by the Panthers in that one. I doubt Winston will throw 4 INT’s in the rematch, as I expect a much cleaner game here. A divisional game with one team in a ‘revenge’ spot is always a good spot to look at. It’s even better when the line provides a few points of value while crossing a key number.
New Orleans Saints +5.5
While the Saints are 5-3 ATS as an underdog, the Falcons are 1-7 ATS as a favorite this year. Atlanta is also coming off the biggest win of the year, a game where they ended Carolina’s undefeated season. There was a lot of emotion in that game and I doubt Atlanta will be able to sustain the same intensity level for the 2nd consecutive week. Atlanta ranks 28th offensively, and there’s a big mismatch between Ryan and Brees. I know Saints’ defense is “Swiss-cheese” but I don’t trust Ryan in a matchup with Brees. If you account for the fact that the Falcons rank 31st in QB-pressure, you can see that in a potential shoot-out, Saints with Brees at the helm offer strong advantage. These are both very mediocre teams so I’m not sure why the Falcons are such a big favorite in this one. I’ll grab the value.
Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5
The Houston Texans are 4-1 ATS as a favorite this year but they have NOT been a favorite of greater than -4 the whole season. Now in the last regular season, they’re listed as the biggest favorite of the year. My model has this game at -4.5 HOU, so there’s a lot of value in the current number (I’d love it even more if it was +7). One issue here is that Houston really has nothing to play for. Sure, “technically” they could miss out on the playoffs, but a lot of things need to happen. The only way they miss the playoff is if they lose, Indy wins, and all 4 of the following teams lose as well: CIN, NEW, NYJ, SD. Even if all four lose, they still will get in if KC AND BAL (who play Cincinnati) win. Honestly, if I’m O’Brien, I’m resting my guys this week 🙂 As far as the game is concerned, remember, Jags led 14-10 in the 4th quarter of the first meeting. Houston proceeded to outscore them 21 to 6 in the final frame, with one of the scores being an INT return for a TD. The 3:0 TO-differential was the difference in that one pretty much as Houston won 31-20. Jags can hang with the Texans, who don’t have an explosive offense. Texans D is coming off two strong efforts in the row, but both came against IND and TEN, two teams with the worst QB’s in the league. It also helps that Clowney is out, weakening Texans’ pass-rush. Finally, keep in mind that the first meeting had JAX as -3 home favorites. The rematch contains a 9.5-point adjustment to that number. The value is on the underdog here.
Washington Redskins +3 -120 (1st Half Only)
Even with their backups, this Washington team should have a chance to win the game against Kellen Moore-led Cowboys. Reports indicate starters will be in there at the start and will be pulled out slowly afterwards. Hopefully Washington has a lead and by the 2nd half of the 2nd quarter, it doesn’t matter who is in there.
Detroit Lions PK
The Lions are a much better team than their record indicates. They lost games to SEA (Calvin Johnson fumble at the goal-line) and GB (Hail-Mary TD), which they should have won, and overall have played really well since their BYE week. Now they’ll take on a Bears team that is decimated with injuries on offense. Defensively, Chicago ranks 30th at home this year. I’ll back the ‘healthier’ team in this one.
New York Giants -4.5
One team had their coach fired (Chip Kelly) while the other one is looking to send off theirs into a well-deserved retirement (Tom Coughlin). I think these teams will have very different motivation levels in this game. Expect ODB to put up a show following his suspension and if reports of Coughlin retiring are true, I like his team to play hard in his final game.
Minnesota Vikings +3
“Revenge” time for the Vikings after getting embarrassed earlier by the Packers at home. Minnesota is proving to be a better team this season, as Green Bay’s offense is totally falling apart. When is the last time that you’ve seen GB rank 21st offensively and 15th in the passing-game with Rodgers at the helm? Vikings rank top 10 in rushing the passer, 12th in pass-D, and most importantly their key guys have all gotten healthier. I don’t trust Green Bay’s O-line to properly protect Rodgers and think Vikings D can get to him on a consistent basis in this one. On the other side, important to note that Green Bay’s best CB, Sam Shields, is once again out. That’s a big loss. Vikings offense has been stellar the last few weeks and I expect them to play well again in this matchup. Should be a close game, but I’ll grab the points with the ‘better’ team.
Seattle Seahawks +6.5
When looking at weighted DVOA, the best team in the league right now is Seattle. Arizona is 3rd. This is also a ‘revenge’ game for the Seahawks after losing earlier this year 39-32 at home. Seattle was -3 home favorite in this one, so with a 6.5 point home/away adjustment, you’d expect them to be about +3.5 / +4 in this game. They are about a FG higher. Arizona is without their best CB Mathieu (ACL done for the year) and their best WR Michale Floyd is questionable. I expect a close game and will grab the points in this one.
NE @ MIA +9.5
I probably would have played this game if the spread remained above 10, but it’s not, so it’s a pass for me. Probably a good thing. New England off a loss is usually not a good ‘fade’, even when they are so over-inflated. Tannehill also discovered blood in his urine and though he’s most likely to play, who knows if he lasts the whole game. Keep in mind that Patriots are dealing with a ton of key injuries: Edelman, Hightower, Vollmer, McCourty, Jones, Chung, and Freeny. They probably don’t need those guys to beat the pathetic Dolphins, but there’s no way I would back the Pats to cover this inflated number on the road. Keep in mind that the first meeting of the year, Pats were -8 at home. Now the spread is 1.5 points higher. Easy pass.
BAL @ CIN -9.5
Here’s another easy pass. The Ravens’ 20-17 win against Pittsburgh last week was probably ‘fluky’ so I would expect this team to perform closer to their season-long level. But I’m not sure I can trust AJ McCarron to cover such a high number. Bengals’s offense hasn’t cracked 300 yards in the last two weeks and the Ravens just held the Steelers to 17 points.
PIT @ CLE +11
If Johnny Manziel was playing I’d back the Browns in this game, but I don’t trust Austin Davis at all, as he’s truly one of the worst QB’s in the league. With reports that this is Pettine’s last game at the helm, maybe we’ll see a strong effort from the Browns in this one. Then again, I have no idea if the players actually like him enough to put forth a strong effort in his last game as the coach. Regardless, the Steelers are over-valued, though of course I could also see a blowout out of them after that dismal performance last week. Remember, Pittsburgh MUST win the game to have any shot at making the playoffs.
OAK @ KC -7
Last game of Charles Woodson’s career and I’m sure his teammates will want to put on a strong showing. Oakland will be facing a KC team that will likely be without Houston again and possibly Hali. Oakland’s O-line ranks 4th in pass-protection and without either or both of KC’s top two pass-rushing LB’s, expect Oakland’s O-line to protect Carr well. These teams played a close game for the most part in December, with Oakland actually leading 20-14 entering the 4th quarter. Mistakes by Carr (3 INT’s) and 20 unanswered points in the 4th quarter, made the game look more like a blowout than it really was. Both teams averaged 4.8 YPP in that game so another indication of a close matchup. Normally I’d probably lean towards the Raiders here, but Oakland is coming off an emotional OT win at home, in what could have been the very last game in Oakland for the franchise. Backing them on the road after such a game, against one of the ‘hottest’ (and best) teams in the league is not something I’d recommend doing.
TEN @ IND
No line on this one as QB situation is murky for the Colts, and even if there was, this one would be an easy pass.
SD @ DEN -9
I have this one at -7.5 DEN, but the number doesn’t offer enough value to back the Chargers. Besides, with all the injuries that San Diego has experienced on offense, backing them on the road against the #1 ranked Defense is a tough thing to do. Easy pass.
STL @ SF +3
I want to take the Niners with the points as value is on them, but I just can’t do it. As bad as the Rams offense is, their D is still top-10 and fully capable of shutting down this San Fran attack. Rams’ D ranks even better, at #2 overall, when playing on the road. Of course their offense is 32nd away from home. San Fran with the points is probably the right side but it’s a pass for me.
Mike Handzelek
Buffalo +3
Games in Week 17 are about a combination of freshness, momentum & familiarity more than the usual line value that usually takes precedence. The Buffalo "D" may be lacking in certain areas but still know how to frustrate Jets' QB Ryan Fitzpatrick & his team into a comedy of errors (4 TO's the 1st meeting). I feel it's tough to separate these 2 that know each other so well. Bills' HC Rex Ryan is fresh off his 6-year tenure (2009 thru 2014) with New York while Jets' OC Chan Gailey coached Buffalo from 2010 thru 2012. I also feel the "Boys From Orchard Park" will play this one like a Super Bowl for Rex while playing the role of spoiler in front of a rocking home crowd. It's going to be a challenge to contain the Green N' White dynamic duo of WR's with Brandon Marshall & Eric Decker combining for 2,353 yards & 24 TD's. But the flip side of the coin also shows promise with RB LeSean McCoy (with 1,187 yards rushing & receiving), QB Tyrod Taylor (with a 20/6 TD/INT ratio, 63.6% completion rate, being a dual threat with 517 rushing yards & a high 100.7 passer rating) and WR Sammy Watkins (911 receiving yards, 18.6 YPC & 9 TD's). Taylor's just not making mistakes as witnessed by throwing just 3 INT's since Week 2! The Bills have controlled possession time over opponents this season by over 2 1/2 minutes with a strong running game gaining 154.6 yards per game that's also featured Karlos Williams (493 yards, 5.7 yards a pop) & X-Factor & emerging star, Dolphins' send-off Mike Gillislee (3rd-year out of Florida) who has gained 239 yards @ an amazing 10.4 yards a carry (93 of them last week in Washington). My bottom line says the Buffalo has beaten New York 4 consecutive times. Add to the mix the Jets leaving a lot on the field in their OT win @ New England & we have something brewing. The winds swirl in Orchard Park this time of year making it tough to throw deep. I feel the Bills are the fresher team with a full arsenal of RB's set to face a great (2nd rushing "D") yet spent defense. The Red, White & Blue kept their penalty yardage under 50 the 1st time & I expect the same here. New York has been in this situation before & has come out with an 0-8 SU record following an outright upset win. I'm ready to head up to Orchard Park's Ralph Wilson Stadium for my 8 Star AFC East Rivalry Grabber & play the Buffalo Bills (but buy to + 3 1/2)!
Brady Kannon
Buffalo +2.5
From just simply a statistical stand point, my numbers come up with The Jets in this match up by a small margin. But this game for me is more about the situation and line value.
Rex Ryan and The Bills will be pushing hard today to get their record to .500 for the season and in one fell swoop, also knock Ryan's former employer out of the playoffs. The Jets on the other hand, come in off of an outstanding win over the mighty Patriots and to pick themselves up again today to the same level of intensity, I feel, will be a challenge. We mistakenly took The Jets in this spot earlier in the year after they played a whale of a game against The Patriots, and we/they were crushed by The Raiders. New York is now just 2-and-4 SUATS in their next game after facing off with New England and are 0-and-4 SUATS in their last 4-games against The Bills. Adding to this, The Jets are just 1-and-7 ATS in their last 8-games after winning SU as an underdog in their previous game.. and this ties perfectly into Rex Ryan's prowess for knocking off teams in such situations as he is 11-and-6 ATS in his career when taking on a team just off of a SU underdog win - and 5-and-0 ATS when it is a division foe.
As for line value, I made this game Pick 'Em, so getting a full field goal at home is a healthy position in my opinion. Despite all of this, 78% of the tickets being written are on New York. The minority here is another position I find favorable.
Finally, teams that defeat the defending SuperBowl Champion as home underdogs, are just 16-37-and-1 ATS when on the road in their next game.. and 4-and-21 SUATS when their opponent is coming off of a win.
As I said, even though the numbers might point toward The Jets in this game, I believe the line value and the situation outweighs the stats. I'll take The Bills.
TJ Pemberton
Packers -3
The title of the NFC North is on the line. Win tonight and its yours. I will back to Packers tonight coming off a performance where they were dominated by the Cards. The Packers have owned the Vikings and it the perfect team to play when needing some confidence. The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Green Bay. The home team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +118 over FLORIDA
OT included. Both these teams played last night with very different results. The Panthers hosted the Rangers and won 3-0 while the Wild were in Tampa and lost 3-2 in a shootout. What doesn’t show up on the scoreboard is that Florida was outshot 40-20 and the only reason they won is because Roberto Luongo was great while Queen Henrik was brutal. Al Montota starts for the Panthers in this one. The Rangers held a 21-9 advantage in scoring chances and there were only five face-offs in the Rangers end the entire game. The Panthers will now play their sixth straight at home before hitting the road for six-games, which is an angle we like to fade, that being the final game of a long home-stand before hitting the road for a long trip.
Minnesota endured a first period onslaught by the Lightning last night before they woke up. Minnesota was outshot 12-4 in the first and didn’t even record a shot on net until about the 13 minute mark of that opening frame. However, the Wild got stronger as the game went on and it was Tampa that survived the onslaught in the third when Minnesota outshot them 15-3 and even had a goal called back. Minnesota played one of the finest periods of hockey we have seen this season in the third period of that game. The Wild picked up a point but deserved two. They have now picked up points in 13 of their last 17 games. Defensively, Minnesota is an outstanding team that moves the puck out as well as anyone. Keep your eye on Matt Dumba, a second year-D-man that not many know about. In any event, we like the price and we love the situation for Minnesota to come in here and put an end to Florida’s ridiculous eight-game winning streak.
SPORTS WAGERS
Wake Forest +14 over LOUISVILLE
Louisville is 11-2 and they’re ranked #18 in the nation. One of our favorite angles in all of sports is to fade over-ranked and overpriced teams and the Cardinals fit that bill to a tee. Louisville has 11 wins against 11 cupcakes. That’s what Rick Pitino does every year. He schedules out of conference games against marshmallow after marshmallow and goes into conference play with a misleading record. Let us point out that Louisville was not ranked in the preseason polls. Louisville was so close to reaching the Final Four last year but this team is much different than it was a year ago. Four double-digit scorers are gone and that leaves sophomore guard Quentin Snider and his 4.1 points per game from last season as the top returning scorer. That’s not to say that Louisville is void of talent. Trey Lewis is a graduate transfer from Cleveland State who is averaging 14.7 points already and Damion Lee is a grad transfer as well. Lee comes from Drexel where he averaged 21.4 points per game, ranking fourth in all of Division I basketball and he’s the Cardinals leading scorer this year. Much to our surprise, the Cardinals have two credible losses this season to Kentucky and Michigan State by just four and two points respectively but we’re not buying in that they’re a top-20 team just yet.
Wake is no pushover. First, the Demon Deacons are 5-1 away from home, which includes three true road games and three neutral site games. They already have a win over then #13 Indiana back on November 23 and they had #6 Xavier by the ropes on December 22. Wake led by 15 at the half against the Musketeers but let it get away from them in the second half. There’s a saying in college basketball that states that you have to lose games to get better and that loss to Xavier was a great lesson for this talented squad. Most recently, Wake went into LSU and as a 7-point pooch, they won outright. The Deacs went 5-13 in ACC play last year so their stock is still low coming into their ACC opener here. Wake has quietly won nine of its first 12 games and has played some damn good teams already like Richmond, Vandy, UCLA, Xavier, LSU, Indiana and an underrated Arkansas team as well. Now Wake is taking back a massive price against a Louisville club that has beaten up on teams like Grand Canyon, Kennesaw State and North Florida to name a few. The points are inflated.