Wunderdog
Tennessee at Seattle
Pick: Seattle +4.5
The Tennessee Titans were a miserable football team through the first six weeks of the season, starting 0-6. They left themselves with no margin for error. To their credit, they didn't cash in their chips, but ran off five straight wins and seven of eight. They nonetheless paid the price for the horrible start. So what is left for this team? They have had to bring it every single week for nine straight weeks, and the playoff dream came to a screeching halt in a 42-17 debacle against San Diego. That game exposed the truth about the Titans - they really are a sub. 500 team. They are just 2-5 on the road this season, scoring 16 points per game and losing by 5 points on average! Meanwhile, Seattle is a winning team at home, allowing just 16.1 points per game. Which team should really be favored? You could sense the quit in this Titans team as San Diego pulled away last week, and I would expect this team will have absolutely nothing left here. The Seahawks have been murdered the last three weeks, dropping three straight to a combined score of 126-24, so how can they win here? I think there is enough pride to give it all they have in the home finale to build on a good feeling for next year. Under Jeff Fisher, Tennesse is 25-37 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 4-12 ATS on the road after back-to-back ATS losses. I think this one is more about the Titans losing their edge that they had to maintain for nine straight games. I wouldn't be surprised to see a team completely unfocused here. I like the Seahawks at home with the points.
Scott Rickenbach
San Francisco at St. Louis
Prediction: Over
Two teams out of playoff contention. Two teams matching up in a dome setting in January so there is no weather concern and their on the fast track otherwise known as artificial turf. We really cant see the defense being overly intense in this one. It?s simply an opportunity for each team to come into this game relaxed, with no pressure to win, and that means a full opportunity to be very aggressive offensively and take some risks downfield with long passes, etc. Note that the Rams are 5-2 to the over in their home games this season. Yes, the Rams haven?t been scoring much in recent games but three of the four games were on the road and the lone home game was against a Texans team that was battling for its playoff life.
Sunday, its a fellow non-playoff team that visits St Louis and we expect the Rams offense to enjoy plenty of success in this one. The Rams offense had been much better in recent home games before Houston shut them down. The Rams defense has been a different story though. St Louis has been shredded for at least 400 yards in three straight weeks! The Niners most recent road game was at Philly and they did themselves in with turnovers. However, in their two prior road games they totaled over 500 yards of yardage through the air. Their Niners last three road games have averaged 44 points per game. This total is lower than that and this is in a meaningless game where the offenses will be trying to put on a show and the defenses could be lacking in intensity. That spells O-V-E-R!
Vernon Croy
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Cleveland Browns -1
This pick falls into one of my NFL systems and the Browns are playing a lot better football lately. I look for the Browns to end their season with a dominating performance at home against a dismal Jaguars team. The Browns are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after covering the spread in their previous game and they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing a team with a losing record. The Jaguars are just 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games played on a grass surface and they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing a team with a losing record. The Browns are finally playing a lot better defensively with opponents averaging just 16.3 ppg against them over their last 3 games. The Browns offense is also starting to click averaging 25.7 ppg over their last 3 games and this Jaguars defense just gave up 35 points in back to back games although that was against the Colts and Patriots. Take the Cleveland Browns.
Matt Fargo
Tennessee Titans vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Tennessee Titans -4
Seattle played one of the worst games of the season this past Sunday at Green Bay and I don’t just mean one of their worst games. It was one of the worst by any team in the NFL this season. The Seahawks were outgained by only 126 total yards but that numbers was shrink due to the Packers clearing the bench and Seattle putting together a garbage time drive. Watching the game saw players not trying, missing easy tackles and basically tossing it in before they got onto the field. Heading home for the season finale could bring back some more energy but I don’t see this team all of a sudden slipping a switch and playing well. The Seahawks packed it in three games back at Houston and they have been outscored 106-24 in those games. Tennessee was playing for its playoff lives last week at home against the Chargers but it ran into the hottest team in the league and early turnovers put the Titans down from the start and they just could not recover. The ending to the season has been a good one and just because the playoffs are now gone, I don’t see Tennessee tossing it in like Seattle has already done. The Titans are 7-2 in their last nine games and they are playing for next year and want to end the season on a high note. After last season, an upset loss in the playoffs, that negative momentum carried into this year and they want to avoid that for next season. There are two players for the Titans who are not going to lie down. Quarterback Vince Young has been solid since taking over the starting position and he wants to finish strong to be able to bring that positive into next season. Running back Chris Johnson has 1,872 yards and while he is guaranteed the NFL rushing title, he will be after 2,000 yards and he needs just 234 yards to surpass Eric Dickerson's NFL-record 2,105 yards rushing in 1984. He also needs just 75 yards from scrimmage to top Marshall Faulk's NFL record 2,429 yards in 1999. This is big on both sides of the ball as the defense will be playing hard to get the offense the ball to allow Johnson to get the needed touches. Cornerback Cortland Finnegan said his motivation is beating Seattle and “get Chris Johnson 2,000 rushing yards.” The Seahawks do not want to be the team that gives up those final yards but they may not have a choice. Seattle's defense allowed 153 rushing yards and five touchdowns against the Packers last Sunday. Tennessee also falls into a solid situation based on last week’s results. Play on road teams that are coming off a loss by 10 points or more as a favorite going up against an opponent that is coming off a road loss. This situation is 48-19 ATS (71.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 3* Tennessee Titans
Marc Lawrence
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs host the falcons in an NFC South Division battle in Tampa with both teams headed to the golf course following this contest. The major difference is that Tampa will do so feeling good about it's season ending surge while Atlanta will not. Putting added pressure on the Falcons is the fact that they have never enjoyed back-to-back winning seasons in their franchise history. Toss in Atlanta?s difficulties in this series (6-12 SU and 5-13 ATS of late, including 0-5 ATS the last five ? and 5-10 SU and ATS in Tampa) and the Falcons? 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS mark in games off back-to-back wins under head coach Mike Smith, and you can understand our affinity for this tail-wagging dog. Grab the points with the Bucs.
Hollywood Sports
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals
The Green Bay Packers (10-5) have no incentive for this game as they have already clinched a wild-spot in the NFC playoffs but cannot change their seeding. Coach Mike McCarthy has a history of resting his starters when nothing is on-the-line. In 2007 when Green Bay had the second seed clinched, McCarthy placed seven starters on the inactive list for the last game of the season. It is doubtful that Green Bay will play their key starters very long. Arizona still has an outside chance to earn the second seed. If the Giants defeat Minnesota in the early game, then the Cardinals will play-to-win this game as a victory combined with a Cowboys' victory (occurring simultaneously) will clinch them the second seed. Even if the Cards lack incentive to win and they bench starters like Kurt Warner, backup QB Matt Leinart remains a solid quarterback and will likely be effective. This game is likely the preview to an immediate rematch in next week's first round of the playoffs so both teams may deploy vanilla schemes. If so, we like the home team even more. Arizona has covered in seven of their last eight home games when favored by a field goal or less. Lay the points with the Cardinals.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
PICK: Houston Texans -7.5
For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the home side:
Sunday's season finale lacks the buzz last year's final game packed, for this season the Patriots have already clinched a playoff spot.
The fact this year's team has already punched its ticket to the playoffs speaks volumes about being good enough to control your own destiny. While this season was far from perfect, the Patriots did finish 8-0 at home, which somewhat gets overshadowed by the fact they're only 2-5 on the road heading into Sunday's finale at Houston.
New England is a poor 1-3-1 ATS its last 5 overall and just 2-4-1 ATS its last seven on the road.
The only thing up for grabs is seeding; the Patriots will either be No. 3 or 4 in the AFC. The Cincinnati Bengals will claim whichever seed New England doesn't get, therefore those two teams won't play one another in the opening round.
On the other side of the field: This is a must-win game for the the Texanas because they still have playoff hopes. Every available player will be called on to try to defeat the Patriots. It's no secret that Matt Schaub will look for Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, David Anderson and TE Joel Dreessen on routes all over the field. He'll also throw screens to RBs Arian Foster and Ryan Moats.
Dating back to last season the Texans are a powerful 13-6 SU their last 19 at Reliant Stadium.
Bottom line: When taking the above into account, having a second look at the Texans in this situation could be the prudent move; look for HOUSTON to improve to 2-0 ATS this season as a home favorite of 7 1/2 to 10 points and for New England to fall to 1-2 ATS its last three when playing the roll of underdog.
ALEX SMART
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins
PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers -3
Back-to-back victories over Green Bay and Baltimore at home have at least righted the ship for the defending champs, but that dastardly five-game losing streak really did them in on the year. The health of SS Troy Polamalu is still up in the air, as he might be able to give it a go for the first time in months on Sunday afternoon. QB Ben Roethlisberger may feel like he was snubbed out of the Pro Bowl this year, as he threw for 4,108 yards and 23 TDs on the year. He is clearly one of the most valuable quarterbacks in the league, as he successfully kept his team together at times when everything else seemed like it was falling apart. Though the defense is still putting up respectable numbers (305.5 yards and 20.0 points per game), it just isn't nearly as dominating of a unit as NFL handicappers are used to seeing out of the black and gold.
Miami's season probably effectively came to a close at home in a 27-20 loss to the Texans in Week 16. The Fins fought valiantly from a 27-0 deficit to score the game's final 20 points, but the hole was just too deep to dig out of. Miami bettors still have a lot to look forward to for 2010 even if the '09 season doesn't end according to plan. QB Chad Henne definitely looks like the quarterback of the future, as he could reach the 3,000-yard plateau in a year where he was thrust into action due to the injury of starter Chad Pennington. RB Ricky Williams also looks like he has found his legs again after RB Ronnie Brown went down with a season-ending injury several weeks ago. The former Texas Longhorn has rumbled for 1,090 yards and has accounted for a team-high 13 TDs on the year.
it's hard to imagine seeing the Dolphins offense that was shut out for the majority of two quarters against Houston survive against the blitz packages of the Steelers in this spot. The defending champs MUST win this game just to have any shot of getting the opportunity to defend the Lombardi Trophy. Miami is in worse shape than that of the Steelers due to an abundance of tiebreakers. I don’t foresee them being up to the task. It will take almost everything to go their way, but first and foremost, PIT has to win this game. I believe they do just that and then let nature take its course.
LARRY NESS
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
PICK: St. Louis Rams +9
The 49ers need a win in Week 17 to get to 8-8, which would snap a streak of six straight losing seasons, the worst stretch in franchise history. As for the 1-14 Rams, they are one loss away from securing the first pick of the 2010 draft. Which team wants it more? The 49ers opened 3-1 but then lost four straight. Former overall No. 1 pick Alex Smith replaced JT O'Sullivan in Week 7 and has started every game since. He's easily had his best season for San Francisco, completing 60.5% with 17 TDs and 12 INTs (80.5 QB rating). RB Frank Gore missed two games early but enters the final game of the year with 1,013 yards (4.9 YPC / 8 TDs) after rushing for 345 yards in his last three games. He should love running against the Rams, whose rush D ranks 27th in the NFL (138.4 YPG / 4.4 YPC). St Louis RB Jackson is expected to play this week and is second in the NFL with 1,353 rushing yards. He's been about the only bright spot for an offense averaging an NFL-worst 11.3 PPG. Little-known Keith Null will likely start at QB for the Rams again. Veteran Kyle Boller was active last week but first-year head coach Spagnuolo said he never considered switching to him and that's the likely scenario again this week. However, don't assume the Rams won't play hard in this game. The Rams have lost seven straight games since beating the Lions 17-10 on November 1 and 24 of their last 25 but since the team's Week 9 bye, the Rams are 3-1 ATS at home. St Louis has covered vs the Saints and Cards (both division winners) plus the 8-7 Texans. Take a look back and see how the Rams have fared vs the 49ers here in St Louis. The Rams beat the 49ers five straight years from 2000-04, lost 24-20 in '05 and won 20-17 in '06 before losing by identical 17-16 scores in each of the last two seasons ('07 and '08). The 49ers opened the 2009 season by winning at Arizona but have lost each of their subsequent six road games. Why not one more road loss here or a win by a razor-thin margin. Take the home dog.
Carlo Campanella
New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings
History repeated itself again this season as QB Bret Farve is in the middle of his season ending slump after losing on to Chicago, 36-30. That Monday Night Football lost dropped the Vikings (11-4) to 1-3 SU & ATS in their last four games. That slump has put Minnesota in a situation where they are now looking for a victory in order to earn a first round bye in the NFC playoff race. They'll host a Giants (8-7) squad that hasn't played well on the road this season, having lost three of their last 4 games away from home by 20 points or more! New York heads to Minnesota on Sunday just 1 game above the .500% mark mainly due to the fact that they're 1-7 ATS this season against teams owning a winning record. Even with their late season problems, the Vikings are still an unbeaten 7-0 SU (4-2-1 ATS) at home this season. With the Giants needing a miracle to earn a Playoff birth, must lay the points with hosting Minnesota knowing that the Giants defense has been burned for at least 24 points in 5 of their last 6 games.
7* Play On Minnesota
Jamie Tursini
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets
Play; New York Jets -9½
No reason Cincy takes any kind of chances with possible injuries. They've been hit hard throughout the season with "key" defensive injuries. Of course the Jets need this to make the playoffs, and defensively they should control the game. Lay the points.
Joseph D'Amico
Washington Redskins vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: San Diego Chargers -3½
To sit or not to sit?!? That is the question. With a first round bye, the Charger's will sit their starters once the game is in hand. San Diego won't have a playoff game for a few weeks and will need to keep their starters sharp. This is a squad that has won 10 straight, covering 7 of those 10 games. HC Norv Turner likes to win and stay competitive. The Redskin's did have a good defense but has given up an average of 27 PPG their L5 outings, including an embarrassing loss to the Giant's 2 weeks ago and a blank to the Cowboy's last week. HC Jim Zorn is all but gone. They didn't aspire to be great all season long, why start now?. San Diego is 4-1 ATS their L5 games played in January and 21-7 ATS their L28 as a home favorite of 3 1/2 - 10 points. HC Norv Turner wants the win. Play the Charger's.
RANDALL the HANDLE
THE BEST
Giants @ Vikings
The Vikings are in the playoffs and are hoping to secure a #2 seeding with victory here. The Giants won’t be participating in the post-season but we still prefer a proud but humiliated New York squad to this reeling Minnesota bunch. The Vikes have lost three of four and will be playing this one off a short week, overtime loss. G-men excel on the road, failing to cover in only seven of past 30 when traveling. New York ’s pass rush should rattle Minnesota ’s shaky front line enough to keep this one close.
TAKING: NY Giants +9 RISKING: 2.08 units to win 2 Pinnacle
Eagles @ Cowboys
Things bode well here for the Eagles. They’ve won six straight. While the Cowboys won the earlier meeting by a 20-16 counts, the Eagles have been victorious in eight of the past nine in second leg of their home-and-home with the Cowboys. Philadelphia will secure the #2 seed with a win, no matter what the outcomes of other games are. While Dallas has picked up the pace recently and remain a legit contender, it must finish strong. But with nine consecutive losses in their final regular season game and with Philadelphia’s success when traveling here, seeing will be believing.
TAKING: Philadelphia +3 RISKING: 2.1 units to win 2 Pinnacle
Titans @ Seahawks
The Seahawks packed it in weeks ago and there is no reason to believe that they show up for this one. Over its past three games, Seattle has been outscored 106-24. This host lacks a running game, has a 25th ranked defence and presents little fear with its passing game. The Titans are eliminated from post-season but will put forth a strong effort here today. Tennessee’s only losses in past nine games were at the hands of talented Colts and Chargers.
TAKING: Tennessee –4 RISKING: 2.16 units to win 2 Pinnacle
THE REST
Bears @ Lions
If it’s possible for the Bears to have a further letdown after this disappointing season, this could be the spot. After winning its ‘Super Bowl’ on Monday night, Chicago figures to be very flat for this irrelevant affair in addition to its plethora of injuries.TAKING: Detroit +3
Patriots @ Texans
The Texans need any two of Ravens, Jets or Broncos to lose and they must win to make the playoffs. Good luck with that. But Houston can finish season on four-game win streak and first winning season while Patriots likely to rest starters.TAKING: Houston –8
Steelers @ Dolphins
Both teams require minor miracles to qualify for the playoffs but with determining results unknown at kickoff, both will be putting forth full efforts. RB Ricky Williams nursing a sore shoulder and that will hinder Miami’s dependence on the ground game.TAKING: Pittsburgh –3
Colts @ Bills
The Colts couldn’t have been clearer when they sacrificed a perfect regular season by resting their stars last week. Same will occur this week with stars getting a few reps and then heading to the heaters. Bills could hang in against Indy’s reserves.TAKING: Buffalo
Jaguars @ Browns
The Browns were favoured for the first time last week against the lowly Raiders and managed a cover. Don’t expect lightning to strike twice. While the Jaguars are not exactly elite, they don’t deserve this type of disrespect from oddsmakers.TAKING: Jacksonville +1 ½
Saints @ Panthers
Panthers have upped their game but too little too late for them. The Saints have regressed since marquee Monday nighter against Patriots. New Orleans will rest players but not so sure they want to enter post-season on three-game skid.TAKING: New Orleans
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Atlanta determined to give franchise its first consecutive winning seasons despite not qualifying for playoffs. Tampa off a pair of road wins, including huge upset at New Orleans last week but this price range has us leery.TAKING: Atlanta –1 ½
49ers @ Rams
The Rams can finally accomplish something by doing what they do best. Lose. St. Louis secures much needed first pick in next year’s draft with a loss here. Facing a 49ers teams that treats every game like its playoffs, expect San Fran to aid the Rams in their quest.TAKING: San Francisco –7
Packers @ Cardinals
Expect a conservative contest in this one as these two could be right back here next week when playoffs begin. We’ll take any points being offered as neither squad will be anxious to show its best hand. Prefer under posted total..TAKING: Green Bay +3
Bengals @ Jets
Remarkably, if the Jets win they are in. It will be short visit to the playoffs if they do get by this one but either way, asking them to win by this large margin is a tall order. New York has been favoured by five or more three times this season and lost all three straight up.TAKING: Cincinnati +10
Chiefs @ Broncos
This has become a minefield for the Chiefs, having lost eight straight on this field in addition to earlier meeting in Kansas City resulting in 44-13 drubbing. Denver could be disinterested after early results but still prefer them to finish strongly against this chump.TAKING: Denver –13
Ravens @ Raiders
Baltimore controls its own destiny as a win grants them post-season activity. The Raiders would like nothing more than to play spoiler. We’ve seen Oakland knock off the Steelers, Eagles and Bengals in this price range and similar effort gets cover here.TAKING: Oakland +11
Redskins @ Chargers
The Chargers are locked into the #2 spot and with 10 straight wins, Norv Turner has vowed to keep the momentum going. The Skins were playing hard until recently and have dropped last pair by a combined 62-12.TAKING: San Diego –4
SPORTS WAGERS
OAKLAND +10½ over Baltimore
In one of the few meaningful games this final Sunday the Ravens need a win and they’re in. That scenario has definitely created an inflated line because most bettors love to wager on teams that are in a “must-win” situation. Having said that, there has been a lot of ruined bankrolls that have played that angle and it would not surprise one bit to see the Raiders win this one outright. No way you say? Well, let’s see. Four of Oakland's five wins this year have come versus teams either in the playoffs or still alive in the hunt. That includes a pair of division leaders in Philadelphia and Cincinnati, as well as the Steelers and Broncos. The Ravens are 2-5 on the road and the Raiders would love nothing more than to knock out a team. Besides, we’re not asking the Raiders to win. They’ll get 10½ big points at home against a team that is simply not that great. One of its road wins came at Cleveland and its other road win came in San Diego in the second game of the season. The Raiders have a chance to post its best win total in years, they also have a shot to knock someone out and most importantly, you’ll have to pay a serious premium to bet against them. Play: Oakland +10½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Cincinnati +10 over N.Y. JETS
This game has been rescheduled for Sunday night and while the Jets control its own destiny, a Bengals win would give them the No. 3 seed should Houston defeat New England in a 1 p.m. game. Being a #3 seed as oppose to a #4 seed could mean an extra home game for the Bengals and expecting them to lay down here is not a good idea. In fact, it’s very likely that if the Jets win here they’ll go into Cincinnati next week for a playoff game. Bengals coach Marvin Lewis says he’s playing to win Sunday and why wouldn’t he? The Bengals can move up in the seedings and they also come in with a defense that is one of the best in the business. Furthermore, that defense will most definitely be playing with a chip on its shoulder, as none of the players were chosen to play in this year’s Pro Bowl. The Jets favored by 10 here is pretty ridiculous when you consider that Houston is a 9-point favorite over the Pats and should win. Even if the Texans lose and the Bengals are playing for nothing, we can always come back with a bet on the Jets later in the day to offset this. However, based on Houston winning and with this game now featured in prime time, it’s highly, highly unlikely that the Bengals roll over. The Jets are a brutal favorite and cannot be trusted laying any points, let alone 10 to a quality team. Play: Cincinnati +10 (Risking 3.24 units to win 2).
SAN DIEGO –4 over Washington
Norv Turner insists he’ll play win, which means playing the starters but even if he chooses to rest them, it should not matter. You see, the Redskins are done. They finished the season last week against the G-Men and after consecutive weeks on prime time TV, this one offers up no motivation for them whatsoever. They were beaten in both by a combined score of 62-12 and both those games were in DC. Now they’re asked to travel cross-country for its final game of the year and again, where the motivation is going to come from is a complete mystery. They had no interest against the G-Man and not much more against the Cowboys, arguably its two biggest rivals. The Chargers at its worst should roll over this uninterested visitor and carry momentum into the playoffs. Besides, even if the Chargers starters are limited the back-ups will be highly motivated to show what they can do should a couple of injuries occur in the playoffs. Play: San Diego –4 +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Jack Clayton
Ravens at Raiders
Pick: Raiders
Oakland is home and has been very good against good teams. The Ravens' have a record against teams with losing records at 6-0. Ravens rookie starting cornerback Lardarius Webb is out for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. The defense has allowed a 100-yard rusher in three of the last eight games, and Oakland can run the football. Play the Raiders.