On Sunday the System Club play is on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Game 706 at 6:00 eastern. The Cavs fit a nice system here direct from the database. What we want to do is play on home favorites of -10 or more with no rest if they were favored by 10 or more on the road yesterday and their opponents tonight, which is Charlotte in this case is coming off a road game. This system over the past 15 years is 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ats. Also of interest is that road teams traveling into Cleveland off a road game with no rest are 0-8 straight up and 2-6 ats over the past 2 years. Charlotte is coming of an impressive effort on Saturday winning as a sizeable road dog down in Miami. The Cavaliers played well in a win and no cover at New Jersey on Saturday afternoon, a game they were covering up until the last 8 seconds when Nets guard D.Harris nailed a meaningless three pointer. Look for the Cavaliers to get a solid win and cover here tonight. If you think that game looks strong I have the NBA Total of the month with a 17-1 system that averages 221 points per game. I also have 3 Big NFL system plays that pertain to the last week of the NFL Season. All three of these plays are from solid 95%,97% and 93% systems. This looks to be one of the deepest Sunday cards in awhile. Dont miss out jump on and cash out big all day and night. Take the Cavs today in the NBA as the free system club play.
8)
Ron Raymond
JAC +1 vs CLE
When JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS team played as Road team as a Underdog - With 6 day off - Last 5 years - Coming off a loss; the Jags are 9-3-1 ATS in this situation the last 5 seasons. Play on the Jags +1.0.
LT Profits
San Diego Chargers vs Washington Redskins
Now we realize that the San Diego Chargers will rest their regulars here despite riding a 10-game winning streak, but we feel even the reserves can cover a field goal here vs. a totally inept Washington Redskins offense.
Ever since beating the Oakland Raiders three weeks ago, the Redskins have looked like a dead team in two embarrassing losses vs. teams you would think they would be motivated for, especially with both games at home.
First, they were humiliated 45-12 by the New York Giants, and then they were shut out 17-0 by the Dallas Cowboys. If they cannot get up for those two games, how excited can they possibly be about flying cross-country for a meaningless non-conference game to end the season? The Redskins are averaging a miniscule 16.4 points per game overall, and they may have a touch time scoring more than 10 points here in their current form.
The Chargers are now the hottest team in football, but they have locked up the two-seed in the AFC, so do not expect to see Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson or Antonio Gates here. Still, they do have decent depth, and they really do not need to light up the scoreboard to cover this small number, especially if the Washington offense continues to just mail it in.
Even with the San Diego reserves playing most of this game, we still see them winning something like 24-13, so we will lay this small spot here as the Chargers tune up for the playoffs with their 11th straight win.
Pick: Chargers -3
Black Widow
1* on Dallas Cowboys -3
The Cowboys have ended their December curse, winning back-to-back road games over the Saints and Redskins to earn themselves a spot in the playoffs. Now they have even more at stake Sunday, which is winning the NFC East title by beating the Philadelphia Eagles. Not only can they win the NFC East, but with a little help they could earn the #2 seed and a first-round bye. Dallas remembers getting hammered 44-6 by the Eagles in their regular season finale last year in Philly, which knocked them out of the playoffs. The Cowboys would love nothing more than to return the favor this time around, and they are treating this as a playoff game. Eagles center Jamaal Jackson's streak of 71 consecutive starts will come to an end due to a torn ACL suffered in last Sunday's 30-27 win over Denver. That leaves former right guard Nick Cole snapping the ball to McNabb, and his poor timing in that process led to one bad exchange and a false start penalty in their 30-27 win over the Broncos last week. Without Jackson, Jay Ratliff will require a double-team inside while DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer wreak havoc on the outside. Donovan McNabb was pressured the entire game in their 16-20 loss to Dallas earlier this season, going 16-of-30 passing for 208 yards with 2 interceptions. He'll face even more pressure this time around with a banged-up line, which will be the difference in the game. Tony Romo had a 67.9 passer rating last December but he's been playing a lot better down the stretch this season, posting a 106.7 rating in the last five games. During that span, he's completed 67.2 percent of his throws for 1,548 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception. Romoe has proven he can handle the pressure of the big game, and he'll have time to pick apart the Eagles' defense Sunday while McNabb will not have the same luxury. Take Dallas and lay the points.
EZWINNERS
Philadelphia Eagles +3
The Cowboys have put together back to back December wins over the Saints and Redskins, but the are running into a red hot Philly team that is seeking revenge for their home loss to Dallas earlier this season. The Eagles under Andy Reid have been very good in this role. Philly is 9-1 against the spread when seeking revenge against the Cowboys. Dallas has only swept the Eagles once in the last ten years and I don't expect it to happen this season. Take the points.
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
375 - 265 run 59 %
Free Play SUN Over The Total 35 Jets/ Cinci 8)
Recent winner runs below: 😮
TY Sat E Carolina + 8
TY FRI over 56 Florida/Cinci
TY Thurs NAVY
TY WED AKRON PK
TY Tues Marquette + 12
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AFTER SEEING THE STRONG "UNDER TRENDS" FOR THESE TWO TEAMS I HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN PUTTING ANY MONEY ON ARTHUR RALPH'S PICK TODAY.
OU Trends
Cincinnati
Under is 6-1 in Bengals last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 5-1 in Bengals last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 5-1-1 in Bengals last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Bengals last 5 games overall.
Under is 6-2 in Bengals last 8 vs. AFC.
Under is 9-3 in Bengals last 12 games in Week 17.
Under is 25-10 in Bengals last 35 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 5-2 in Bengals last 7 games on grass.
Under is 5-2 in Bengals last 7 games as a road underdog.
Under is 25-10-1 in Bengals last 36 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 10-4 in Bengals last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
N.Y. Jets
Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 4-1-1 in Jets last 6 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Jets last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 4-1 in Jets last 5 games in January.
Over is 4-1-1 in Jets last 6 vs. AFC.
Under is 4-1 in Jets last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 3-1-1 in Jets last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 23-11-1 in Jets last 35 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Matt Rivers
Ravens @ Raiders
It's never a sure thing when backing Al Davis' Oakland Raiders but I can see them hold their own a bit today and to get this price out west is enough to give it a go.
Obviously a win and Baltimore is in so the motivation is more than there for Ray Lewis and the visitors. In the end I do expect John Harbaugh's team to get the job done but covering this number is a different story.
Oakland's defense is not bad at all. Nnamdi Asomugha is as good of a corner as there is on the planet. Joe Flacco more than likely will ignore his side of the field most of the time and others like Richard Seymour, Greg Ellis and Gerard Warren are quality experienced players as well. Sure Flacco should be efficient and Ray Rice will continue to blow up in a good way I'm sure but the Raiders will come to play and 10 ½ at home is 10 ½ at home.
Charlie Frye is expected to start and the former Brown will never be compared to Joe Montana and in fact he is no Bruce Gradkowski. The Ravens will bring the heat and Ed Reed is expected to return which will help them but this price is just too much on the road and all the way across the country. This cannot be belittled and especially when you are getting these points with a team that has already shocked Philadelphia and Cincinnati as a similar dog. Plus Tom Cable's crew went on the road and shocked the world in both Denver and Pittsburgh so this team can rise to the occasion against quality teams. There will be no crapping in their pants here at all with the big bad Ravens coming into town.
Of course Seymour was crazy a few months ago when predicting that Oakland would go to the playoffs but he wasn't crazy in understanding how his squad was not as pathetic as some may believe. There are times when they lay a big fat stinky egg but without JaMarcus Russell on the field that should be more of a thing of the past. Oakland may be 5-10 overall but throw out how bad they were with Russell because that is meaningless right now. They are 3-3 post the Russell era and really are a .500 or so team.
Double digit home dog that has already beaten the Eagles, Bengals, Steelers and Broncos? Ok, I'll take my chances.
JIM FEIST
TENNESSEE TITANS / SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
TAKE: TENNESSEE TITANS
Tennessee (7-8 SU/ATS) had a great run following that 0-6 start, but they.5?ve run out of gas for a miracle playoff shot, losing at home to San Diego last week, 42-17. The Chargers racked up 425 yards against a defense that let players to run free on a regular basis. It was 21-3 in the second quarter, and got to 42-10 before a late score. The lone bright spot for the Titans was RB Chris Johnson's 10th straight 100-yard game. Johnson has 1,872 rushing yards, needing 234 in the finale to break Eric Dickerson's NFL single-season rushing mark of 2,105. QB Vince Young (10 TDs, 6 INTs) is off a bad game, but has been very good overall, leading the Titans to a 7-2 SU/6-3 ATS run. They.5?ve scored 34, 30, 41, 20, 20, 17, 47, 27 and 17 points the last nine weeks. They still prefer the power running game, rushing for 305, 152, 168, 228, 163, 142, 160, 128 and 182 the last nine. The secondary that has gone with two rookies and was awful early on, got better, holding the mighty Cardinals to 220 yards passing. Tennessee is 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS on the road. "We need to hit the offseason running, and there would be no better way to do that than to find a way to win next week,'' Jeff Fisher said. It.5?s clear Seattle (5-10 SU/ATS) has packed in the season under first year Coach Jim Mora. QB Matt Hasselbeck (16 TDs, 16 INTs) has decent targets in WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Nate Burleson, Deion Branch and TE John Carlson, but he has thrown 4 picks in each of the last two games. They come off a 48-10 no-show loss on Sunday at Green Bay, so this team looks as though they have packed it in (losing 24-7 at home to the previous week). 13 Seattle starters have missed at least one game due to injury this season, with Pro Bowlers Walter Jones and Lofa Tatupu out for the season. Seattle had a 34-7 loss at Houston giving up 450 yards. The defense is 25th overall, and has had problems stopping the run and the pass. The defense allowed 364 yards to the Rams, gave up 256 yards on the ground to the 49ers in the first meeting (23-10 Seattle win), got shredded in the air by Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner, gave up 38 points to Dallas, and 35 points and 160 yards rushing to Minnesota. Seattle is on a 4-10 SU/ATS run. "We're in a stage of trying to build something that was broken," Mora said. "And it's not easy." Neither will facing RB Chris Johnson as the Titans run wild over the Seahawks defense.
Tony Mathews
San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams
Selection: Under 40.5
In last week’s game against Detroit, the 49ers only managed to put up a total of 20 points and that was after the Lions committed five turnovers. At 2-13, it’s important to note that Detroit has the worst defense in the NFL, allowing on average 35 points per game on the road.
As for San Francisco, head coach Mike Singletary prefers a very conservative offensive approach that lacks explosiveness and relies more on the defensive side of the ball. Alex Smith has not gained the trust of his team and so the offense hesitates to open up and throw until they fall behind.
While at this point the Rams do not have much to play for, they haven’t given up and we’ve seen that effort stay strong all season. When playing against opponents who currently have losing records, St. Louis stays firm without putting up many points. In fact St. Louis has gone 3-5 Over/Under this season when playing teams with losing records.
We see both the 49ers and the Rams rushing the ball in this last week with a hard effort to keep the game moving.
Take San Francisco 49ers/St. Louis Rams Under 40.5
Brian Marshall
Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Seattle Seahawks
Plays On: Over 44
The Titans have had an incredible 8 week playoff run that sadly came to a halt last week by San Diego. In light of that disappointment, we expect Tennessee to put in the utmost effort on the offensive side of the ball in this game. The biggest reason for this motivation has to do with RB Chris Johnson’s quest in achieving the NFL record for single season rushing yards.
On the other side, the Seahawk defense has significantly deteriorated, allowing more than 400 total yards and more than 30 points for the 4th time in 7 weeks last Sunday when they were shattered by Green Bay. The Titans with their physical OL plans to exploit this, putting up plenty of points with an easily managed run/pass balance.
On the defensive side, Tennessee doesn’t look so great with several holes in the last few weeks that allowed 898 yards and 66 points. The Titans have absolutely no pass rush, evidenced by the fact that they’ve managed to sack their opposing QBs only four times out of their last 185 pass attempts. Without their key linebackers, Keith Bullock and David Thornton, the Titan defense has just simply crumbled in all aspects. Tennessee has both a very limited pass pressure coverage as well as run defense which should allow the Seahawks to put up many points.
The bottom line, we should see many points scored by both teams!
Take the Tennessee Titans/Seattle Seahawks Over 44
SportsInsights
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
This match-up is seeing a huge, overwhelming landslide of bets coming down on the Chicago Bears. Almost 90% of bets are taking the Bears, who are playing the hapless 2-13 Detroit Lions. We see this as a good opportunity to "Bet Against the Public" -- and grab some good contrarian line movement. The line opened at Detroit +2.5 and has made a huge move to Detroit +3, with good "vig/odds" pricing.
In addition to line movement value, we like Detroit for a number of other reasons, including:
* Selling Chicago's impressive Monday Night showing.
* Smart Money play triggered by 5Dimes as alerted by SportsInsights' Premium Pro feature (47-40, + 8.2 units).
* In addition, we like home dogs -- particularly at this time of year.
Detroit Lions +3 +105
San Francisco 49ers vs. St Louis Rams
This is an interesting match-up that one of our offshore contacts circled. Our contact said that a few of his sharpest bettors got down on the St. Louis Rams. Indeed, SportsInsights had a Smart Money play triggered by Carib (33-16, +12.9 units). The Rams are seeing less than 25% of spread bets. Note that because many of the games are relatively "meaningless" with respect to the playoffs, there is less action on the games this week.
The 1-14 Rams are at home -- taking on the 7-8 San Francisco 49ers. As our readers know, we are keen on home dogs near the end of the NFL season. This is a divisional rivalry -- so we should have a "live" home dog going, stirred up by the home crowd in the season finale. Finally, if you shop around, you can now grab extra value by getting 7.5 points -- more than a TD worth of a point spread.
St Louis Rams +7.5 -105
Baltimore Ravens vs. Oakland Raiders
This is a classic Pepto Bismol game. Baltimore is playing for a playoff spot while Oakland is wrapping up another abysmal season. Public money has bid up the point spread from Baltimore -10 to -11. This game is one of the heavier-bet games this week because of the playoff implications and is seeing 75% of the bets take the heavily-favored Ravens.
We see a lot of value in getting Oakland as +11 home dog. "Motivation" -- such as playoff positioning -- is often over-valued by the betting Public. As a result, sportsbooks' odds are also typically inflated. Professional athletes have pride -- and Oakland does not want to be a doormat. Oakland, the "home dogs," will be particularly "live" home dogs at this time of the season. They can give it "their all" for the last game of the season. The Raiders -- and their home crowd will certainly be into it!
Oakland Raiders +11
Tennessee Titans vs. Seattle Seahawks
This game has several interesting storylines. But first, let's take a closer look at the NFL Marketplace. Despite well over 80% of the bets coming on Tenn, "Sharp Money" has been coming in on Seattle. We have the familiar pattern of "reverse line movement" -- with the line moving from Tenn -5.5 down to -4 -- even with the vast majority of bets taking Tenn. Big money is getting down on Seattle. There is still plenty of value in getting Seattle as a +4.5 home dog. Now, let's take a look at some background.
After compiling the NFL's best record last year, Tennessee started this season by going 0-6. They then won 7 of 8 games to get close to the playoff picture -- only to lose last week to San Diego. Tennessee's hot streak got some attention from the fans and media -- and as a result, the Titans are grabbing a huge 85% of the bets this week. We note, however, that both teams in this game are now out of the playoff picture. There's a chance, however, that the Titans will have more of a letdown after their heroic hot streak ended last week.
Tennessee is coming off a pounding from San Diego last week. Let's fade the Public, go with the "Sharps" -- and take yet another "home dog."
Seattle Seahawks +4.5
Andrew Bucciarelli
2* Ottawa Senators (-103) over Philadelphia flyers
The teams are meeting for the third time this season, but the first time at Scotiabank Place. The series is at 1-1 and the Ottawa Senators will be looking to end a winning road streak for the Flyers. The Senators have won the last two out of three games and will look to continue this at home. The Flyers have lost six of their last seven games at Scotiabank Place, while the Senators are 10-3-0 in their last 13 games at home. Ottawa is also 3-1-0 in the four games since Alredsson joined Spezza on the injured list. Look for a great showing as Ottawa wins this classic thriller.
2*Chicago Blackhawks (NO Line up) over Anaheim Ducks
Chicago is coming off a domination 6-3 win over the Blues as the Ducks are coming off a tough loss to Nashville last night. Chicago is thriving on all cylinders and will look to continue this domination tonight against low caliber Ducks team who can’t find their footing this season. Look for Kane to continue his success more and Huet to keep the puck out of the net again. Chicago’s offense will be too much to take for the Anaheim Ducks and will certainly fall quick.
1*Montreal Canadiens (+103)over Buffalo Sabres
This is the fourth meeting between these two rivals. Buffalo is a commanding 2-0-1 against the Canadiens. The Canadiens though have won the past two coming into 2010 as this game tonight will mark Montreal’s first game on home ice since December 17. Buffalo has been outshot 62-20 in the first period of its last five games which has also caused their usual slumps in the first period by going down. This Montreal team will be given a great opportunity at home to take them out early.
BIG AL
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings
Last week, the Vikings were upset in overtime by the Chicago Bears. Of course, that result didn't surprise us, as we had our Monday Night Football Game of the Year on the Bears +8. But today, we'll go with Minnesota to rebound off that upset loss, as we note that, since 1980, NFL teams are 35-14 ATS at home in their final regular season game, if they suffered an upset loss on the road the previous week. Take the Vikings.
Tom Freese
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are 11-5 ATS their last 16 games as favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 points and they are in a 89-48 ATS System that says to Play On any team that scores 103 or more points a game after trailing their last game by 15 or more points at the half. Dallas is 0-6 ATS off an ATS win and they are 1-4 ATS when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their last game. The Mavericks are 3-7 ATS their last 10 games as road dogs of 5.0 to 10.5 points and they are 3-7 ATS their last 10 games vs. Western Conference teams. PLAY ON LA LAKERS -
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Pittsburgh Steelers -3
While the Steelers will still need some help if they get past the Dolphins in order to make the postseason, I expect them to do their part. Miami is just 6-17 ATS in home games over the last 3 seasons and its young secondary will have its work cut out for itself against one of the best passing attacks in football. Back-to-back close losses in comeback efforts have really taken a toll on the Phins, and it is hard to think a team so reliant on its running game can get the job done against the motivated defending champs without Ronnie Brown and with a severely banged up Ricky Williams. The Dolphins are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 3.0 points or less and the Steelers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in January. Expect Pittsburgh to display a little of that January magic to get the job done here. Take Pittsburgh.