John Martin
1 Unit on Pittsburgh Steelers -3
Pittsburgh will win at Miami Sunday to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Steelers have all the momentum in this contest, as they have won back-to-back games over the Packers and Ravens the past two weeks. Meanwhile, Miami has lost their last two games to the Titans and Texans. They fell behind 24-6 to Tennessee before tying it at 24-24, only to fall short in overtime. They got off to an even worse start last week, trailing Houston 27-0 within the first 30 minutes of that game, before pulling within 20-27 late. Their failed attempt at an onside kick put an end to the game, and Miami lost a pair of heartbreaking contests that killed their playoff hopes. It's hard for me to see them showing up Sunday given the dramatic way they've lost their last two games, and knowing that at 7-8, they need nothing short of a miracle to make the playoffs. Pittsburgh at 8-7 has a realisitic shot right now, and I see them coming out like the Super Bowl champions that they are Sunday and finishing their season with a road win. Star LB Channing Crowder is out for Miami, and RB Ricky Williams is questionable after injuring his shoulder and sitting out the second half of last week's loss to Houston. Cash in with Pittsburgh as the favorite.
Info Plays
3* on Seattle Seahawks +6
Reasons why the Seahawks cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team. This is a 56-20 ATS System hitting 73.7% since 1983. This system is 2-0 this season.
2.) The Titans' playoff hopes were crushed with a 17-42 home loss to the San Diego Chargers last week. That's why they won't be totally up for this game in Seattle, and their biggest goal right now is to get Chris Johnson as many yards as they can, so the Seahawks can gear up to stop it. Seattle wants to end their season on a positive note here by shutting down Johnson and winning this game to make up for a disappointing year.
JR TIPS
Mavericks at Lakers
Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers are in the midst of one of the best scoring runs of his career after Bryant and the Western Conference leading Lakers look to build off their biggest comeback victory in three seasons Sunday night when they host the Dallas Mavericks. Bryant has scored at least 34 points in six straight games and just missed his 104th career 40 point game in Friday's 109-108 victory over Sacramento finishing with 39 points on a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer as the Los Angeles rallied from a 20-point first-half deficit for its largest comeback since 2006. Bryant is averaging 38.3 points in his last six games and is the league leader with 30.6 points per game and is shooting a career best 48.5 percent from the field this season including 50.9 percent in his last four contests. Bryant is averaging 25.4 points in 44 career games versus the Mavericks and although he missed 13 of 19 shots, he still led the Lakers with 20 points in a 94-80 home loss to Dallas on Oct. 30th as the Lakers committed 19 turnovers and shot 39.5 percent from the field in that game. The Lakers are 17-2 at Staples Center since that defeat and have won 37 of 42 at home against the Mavericks since the 1988-89 season. Dallas improved its West leading road win total to 12 with Saturday's 99-91 victory over the Kings but haven’t won two straight against the Lakers in Los Angeles in 26 seasons. The Lakers were embarrassed in their last game against the Mavericks as Coach Phil Jackson said they should have refunded the fans money with their last performance against the Mavs. The Lakers will come out tonight and play with a purpose and that will be trouble for a Mavs team playing a back to back.
TAKE LAKERS -6.5
DUNKEL
Philadelphia at Dallas
The Eagles look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games against teams with a winning home record. Philadelphia is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3)
Game 301-302: Indianapolis at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 134.750; Buffalo 131.424
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 9; 35
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+9); Over
Game 303-304: New Orleans at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.080; Carolina 143.175
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 9; 51
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 305-306: Jacksonville at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 126.394; Cleveland 131.633
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 5; 34
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-1); Under
Game 307-308: Philadelphia at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 139.168; Dallas 135.973
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 50
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Over
Game 309-310: Chicago at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 124.060; Detroit 119.533
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Under
Game 311-312: New England at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: New England 137.658; Houston 137.881
Dunkel Line: Even; 49
Vegas Line: Houston by 9; 46
Dunkel Pick: New England (+9); Over
Game 313-314: Pittsburgh at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 131.599; Miami 134.289
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Under
Game 315-316: NY Giants at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 130.992; Minnesota 143.093
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 12; 47
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 9; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-9); Under
Game 317-318: Cincinnati at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 129.580; NY Jets 141.784
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 12; 38
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 10; 35
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-10); Over
Game 319-320: San Francisco at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 131.642; St. Louis 122.205
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 9 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 7; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-7); Under
Game 321-322: Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 129.738; Tampa Bay 133.916
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+2 1/2); Under
Game 323-324: Green Bay at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.585; Arizona 135.891
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+3 1/2); Over
Game 325-326: Kansas City at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 120.869; Denver 131.791
Dunkel Line: Denver by 11; 37
Vegas Line: Denver by 13; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+13); Under
Game 327-328: Baltimore at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 138.673; Oakland 125.806
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 13; 36
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 10 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-10 1/2); Under
Game 329-330: Washington at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 134.443; San Diego 140.737
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 6 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: San Diego 3 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-3 1/2); Over
Game 331-332: Tennessee at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 132.665; Seattle 126.581
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6; 40
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 4; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-4); Under
NBA
Indiana at New York
The Pacers are coming off a 122-111 win over Minnesota and look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games following a SU win by more than 10 points. Indiana is the pick (+8) according to Dunkel, which has the Knicks favored by only 7. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+8)
Game 701-702: Indiana at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 111.612; New York 118.734
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 7; 198
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 8; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+8); Under
Game 703-704: San Antonio at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 125.684; Toronto 120.532
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 5; 205
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 705-706: Charlotte at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 118.235; Cleveland 131.008
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 13; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 10 1/2; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-10 1/2); Over
Game 707-708: Philadelphia at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 114.163; Denver 123.669
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 9 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 709-710: Dallas at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.182; LA Lakers 125.633
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 6 1/2; 201
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 6; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-6); Over
NCAAB
Providence at St. John's
The Friars look to build on their 9-4 ATS record in the last 13 meetings against the Red Storm. Providence is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has St. John's favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Providence (+4 1/2)
Game 711-712: Wisconsin at Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 71.517; Penn State 66.958
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 5
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (+5)
Game 713-714: Georgetown at DePaul
Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 68.615; DePaul 57.903
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 10
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-10)
Game 715-716: Houston at Iowa State
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 61.207; Iowa State 67.797
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-5 1/2)
Game 717-718: Missouri State at Northern Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri State 61.457; Northern Iowa 70.203
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-6 1/2)
Game 719-720: Bradley at Wichita State
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 54.497; Wichita State 68.487
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 14
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-9 1/2)
Game 721-722: Creighton at Evansville
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 58.934; Evansville 55.614
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (+4 1/2)
Game 723-724: UTEP at Texas Tech
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 64.939; Texas Tech 66.445
Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 2
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+2)
Game 725-726: Florida at North Carolina State
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 63.532; North Carolina State 66.274
Dunkel Line: North Carolina State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina State
Game 727-728: Ohio State at Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 68.884; Michigan 66.476
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan by 2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+2)
Game 729-730: Providence at St. John's
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 63.077; St. John's 65.772
Dunkel Line: St. John's by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: St. John's by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Providence (+4 1/2)
Game 731-732: Xavier at Wake Forest
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 66.307; Wake Forest 71.636
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (-3 1/2)
Game 733-734: Miami (FL) at Pepperdine
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 65.765; Pepperdine 52.758
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 13
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-12 1/2)
Game 735-736: Indiana State at Drake
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 56.146; Drake 53.794
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (-1)
Game 737-738: Clemson at Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 70.118; Duke 85.014
Dunkel Line: Duke by 15
Vegas Line: Duke by 10
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-10)
Game 739-740: Southern Illinois at Illinois State
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 59.142; Illinois State 63.681
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (+5 1/2)
Game 741-742: Maryland at NC Greensboro
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 63.526; NC Greensboro 50.127
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Maryland by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC Greensboro (+15 1/2)
Game 743-744: Montana State at Idaho State
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 53.431; Idaho State 49.838
Dunkel Line: Montana State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Idaho State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho State (-2 1/2)
NHL
Philadelphia at Ottawa
The Flyers look to build on their 4-1 record in their last 5 road games. Philadelphia is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-105)
Game 1-2: Philadelphia at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.912; Ottawa 11.464
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-105); Under
Game 3-4: Buffalo at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.654; Montreal 11.232
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-120); Under
Game 5-6: Pittsburgh at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 10.812; Florida 11.060
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+125); Over
Game 7-8: Anaheim at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.309; Chicago 12.605
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total:
Dunkel Pick:
BRENT CROW
Best Bet: Houston -7
Houston 7 at New England (-13) 40 - 2006 O/U 45.5 10 am PT
The handicap of this game is pretty simple. Houston sits at 8-7 and needs
a win plus some help to make the playoffs. New England, on the other hand,
is locked into a home playoff game against a wildcard team with its 10-5 record
and AFC East title. The Patriots cannot help themselves by winning, they
will play on the road in round two if they get past the first round. With Brian
Hoyer as their backup quarterback, I would be very surprised to see Tom
Brady on the field this week. Instead it should be Hoyer and a lineup of mostly
backups at all the skill positions on offense, and the defense will also rest
its big guys up front. The Patriots were quoted before last week as how they
planned to go all out against Jacksonville so that they would not have to
worry about winning in the final week of the season. They were very intense
in practice before last week’s game and it paid off with an easy 35-7 win over
the Jaguars. This week’s practices will not be intense and I am sure that one
eye will be looking toward their first round playoff game instead of the Texans.
TIM TRUSHEL
Best Bet: Under 40.5
St. Louis 0 at San Francisco (-9.5) 35 - Week 4 O/U 40.5 10 am PT
With five turnovers committed by the Detroit Lions the 49ers could only muster
a grand total of 20 points. Keep in mind that the Detroit Lions are the worst defensive
team in football. On the road they had allowed an average of 35 points
per game. This lack of offense and explosiveness by the 49ers is by design. Head
coach Mike Singletary clearly prefers a ultra conservative approach that relies
much more on defense. Amazingly consider that in losses the 49ers have scored
15.4 points per game yet in wins they have averaged 21.7 points. As a comparison
their division rival has scored 29.5 points per game in wins while netting
14.6 in losses. The 49ers do not trust Alex Smith and do not open the offense
until they are trailing. St. Louis has fought hard all season long and even without
much to play for at 1-13, we’ve continued to get maximum effort. Against teams
with current losing records, the Rams have played tight games that haven’t produced
a lot of points (3-5 O/U). We expect in this final week a concerted effort
to move the game along with both teams rushing the ball. Play this one under.
ROB VENO
Best Bet: Over 43.5
Seattle 28 at Tennessee (+7) 24 - 2005 O/U 43.5 10 am PT
Despite the disappointment of having their incredible eight-week playoff surge end
last Friday against San Diego, I wouldn’t expect less than a maximum offensive effort
here from the Titans. Obviously their reason for a focused performance in this spot has
everything to do with Chris Johnson’s pursuit of the NFL single season rushing record.
The crumbling Seattle defense allowed 400+ total yards and 30+ points for the fourth
time in the last seven weeks when Green Bay destroyed them last Sunday. The physical
Tennessee offensive line figures to have their way here easily creating run/pass balance
leading to plenty of points. Defensively, the Titans have become an absolute sieve the
last couple of weeks getting steam rolled for 898 yards and 66 points. Tennessee’s nonexistent
pass rush is easily verified by the fact that opposing quarterbacks have been
sacked just four times in their last 185 pass attempts. The Titans sorely miss top linebackers
Keith Bullock and David Thornton in all phases of defense. With their pass pressure,
coverage and run defense hindered, Seattle should generate over 20 points. As long
as weather isn’t a factor, there appears to be plenty of value in playing this game over.
ERIN RYNNING
Best Bet: Over 41.5
Tampa Bay (+12) 17 at Atlanta 20 - Week 12 O/U 41.5 10 am PT
A meaningless matchup of division foes as the Falcons travel to Tampa Bay to
battle the Buccaneers. In the end, the nemesis of both of these teams was the
play of their defensive units. Overall, the Falcons ranked 25th in the NFL in yards
allowed, while failing to get the big stops in their must-win games. Meanwhile,
the Buccaneers just couldn’t tackle anybody throughout the early portion of
the season, which doomed them team from the start. As a result, the Buccaneers
currently rank 27th in the NFL in total defense. Atlanta’s offense looked much
better this season when Matt Ryan was under center as he returned from injury
the last two games. They’ve gotten back to making plays down field in the
passing game. The ability to run and pass will no doubt keep the Buccaneers
defense off balance in this matchup after recently playing a stretch of weak offensive
teams. The market total the first time these two teams met was 46 just
five weeks ago, which provides us with a sizable amount of value for this contest.
Look for a shootout with much more offense than defense on Sunday.
MARTY OTTO
Best Bet: Arizona -2.5
Arizona 14 at Green Bay (-4) 31 - 2006 O/U 43.5 1 pm PT
The Packers are essentially locked into their playoff fate; they have no shot at a home
game or bye and will be either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. This is a meaningless game and
although Mike McCarthy won’t come out and say it, I think we’ll see him rest some
starters or limit their playing time. McCarthy has a history of this, just like he did two
years ago, “blinDSIding” everyone by resting starters on game day after refusing to acknowledge
the plan leading up to the game. Meanwhile, thanks to Chicago’s upset of
Minnesota on MNF the Cardinals have a shot at securing the No. 2 seed and a first round
bye with a combination of three scenarios on Sunday. At the very least the Cardinals
must prepare this week to go full bore. Now, if Minnesota wins before kickoff this will
change things and I expect some back-ups to be in play for Arizona as well. But that is
just fine by me. I have full faith in Arizona’s second unit especially at quarterback with
Matt Leinart. And let’s not forget that the Arizona backups are true backups, not third
and fourth string guys like Green Bay is forced to roll out thanks to an injury sheet that
is up to 20 players long! In either scenario Arizona looks like a strong play on Sunday.
ANDREW LANGE
Best Bet: Oakland +10
Oakland 10 at Baltimore (-9) 29 - 2008 O/U 38 1 pm PT
If the Ravens win this weekend in Oakland, they are in the playoffs. No scenarios,
no needing other teams to win and/or lose – win and your season
continues. Now before I get to the fact that they not only need to win but
must do so by double-digits on the road, I’ll point out that a good number
of these “must-win” situations haven’t exactly gone the way of said team.
Tennessee and Jacksonville needed victories last week but were crushed.
The Giants certainly could have used one but instead lost 41-9 at home to Carolina.
My point is you shouldn’t change your typical handicapping philosophies
just because a team is in a “must-win” situation. In fact, the pressure put on
these teams, including Baltimore this weekend, is likely to hurt rather than
help as we have seen so many times in college and professional sports. Charlie
Frye threw three interceptions last week but also has over 300 yards making
him much more viable than JaMarcus Russell. This is also a team that has
wins over Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Denver. Take the points.
Chris Jordan
Guys, it's rare you get one of these 10-Point Teasers from me, but I couldn't pass it up. I also have a complimentatry College Basketball winner on the Duke-Clemson clash out of the ACC.
It's available in the College Basketball area of the Free Picks/Previews.
Not going to get into it much with this one, it's quite obvious, isn't it?
All three teams can help themselves into the postseason with a victory and all three teams are basically laying 10 points in their ball games, give or take a 1/2 point here or there.
With the Jets, it's no secret the Bengals plan on resting most of their starters today, so a win in the final game at the Meadowlands should be a no-brainer as long as Rex Ryan's boys play smart football. They've shown they know how, and in the most important game of the season, they'll produce a win for me.
With the Ravens, that defense will bring everything its got against a rather bleak Oakland offense. And I don't suspect the Raiders will be able to stop Baltimore's bruising run game. Oakland's run defense has been shredded all season. They gave up 316 rush yards to the Jets, 220 to the Giants, 215 to the Broncos (the first meeting) and 195 to the Cowboys. Too much Ray Rice with his razzle-dazzle and a heavy dose of Le'Ron McClain's power game will bowl them over. And to add insult to injury - Willis McGahee will pick up all the leftovers. Easy winner here.
Finally, at Invesco Field, I'm not going to worry too much about the absences of Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler. Big losses? Absolutely. Game defining, against a team like the Chiefs? Not exactly. I still have Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokley and Brandon Lloyd. And remember you heard this from ME, Lloyd is going to be the one who has a big day for the Broncos. Something big will happen with this kid in this game. The line has dropped feverishly since coach Josh McDaniel announced he was benching Marshall and Scheffler, and it's lingering around 10 points. Fine with me. Tease it down and watch the Broncos win.
5♦ 10-POINT TEASER - JETS, RAVENS, BRONCOS
Dominic Fazzini
Washington at SAN DIEGO -3
I haven't been losing many complimentary selections lately, but Saturday was one of those rare days. Oklahoma State turned the ball over SEVEN times against Mississippi, and even Nostradamus couldn't have seen that one coming. I'm still 52-32 over the past 84 days, however, including a 54-day run of 35-19!
And as solid as those numbers are, they're going to get even better today as I back the red-hot Chargers to finish their regular season off with an easy victory over the reeling Redskins.
I don't care if the Chargers don't have anything to play for today -- or for the next year, for that matter -- there is no way the line should be this close, especially with the game being played in San Diego!
The Chargers have won 11 straight games this season, they have one of the most proficient offenses in the NFL and quarterback Philip Rivers is having an MVP-type season.
Rivers is going to play for a while today, and he should lead San Diego to a couple of touchdowns before giving way to backup Billy Volek, who is no slouch. Volek led the Chargers to a TD drive against the Colts in a playoff game two years ago, and he passed for more than 400 yards two straight games when he was on the Titans.
Washington coach Jim Zorn is likely on the sideline for the last time with the Redskins today, and I just don't see his team giving an inspired effort after making a cross-country plane ride for a meaningless game to end a disappointing season.
And even with the Redskins coming with a strong effort, they simply don't have the weapons necessary to match the Chargers' offensive firepower. Look for San Diego to jump out to an early lead today and never look back in an easy victory.
5♦ SAN DIEGO
Drew Gordon
Washington +3 at SAN DIEGO
29-21-2 roll over my L52 Free Plays, incl. Texas Tech over Michigan State last night! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Redskins/Chargers match up.
This is one of those games in Week 17 that an average bettor gets massacred on... It "seems" very tempting to grab the more talented Chargers as a small home favorite in this spot. but that couldn't be further from the truth, and here's why:
First, coach Turner can say whatever he wants about playing time, but San Diego's studs will be playing a very limited role in this contest. He can't risk it with Rivers, and Gates and LT are both nicked up and injury prone. My point is by halftime the announcers will be calling names like: "Billy Volek completes to Brandon Manumaleuna..." and not "Rivers to Gates," if you catch my drift!
Second, although they have nothing to play for, I see the Redskins coming out ready to play after getting embarassed by Dallas in Washington Week 16. In fact, the Redskins have not been competitive their L2 games - both conference match ups - and I believe its unlikely they'll lay an egg three games in a row. Let's not forget this is the same team that covered 5 straight games from Nov. 15th to Dec. 13th - so don't get too down on them just yet.
Finally, I'm going to tell you how the Redskins grab the cash in this contest, and that's with their uheralded defense, which is allowing 20 ppg on 301 total yards over their L3 games (better than the Chargers over the same span). With most, if not all, of the Chargers weapons looking at limited action here, the Skins starters will be playing against back-ups for an extended period of time. That bodes well for Washington on both sides of the ball, especially Campbell who needs the confidence booster going into the offseason. In the end, the Chargers aren't the Chargers without their studs, and it'll show this afternoon.
Take Washington plus the points over San Diego in this NFL match up.
2♦ WASHINGTON
Logical Approach
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK
New England + 8 over HOUSTON
The Patriots have won the AFC East and will host a Wild Card game next week. Houston can earn a Wild Card with a win and help elsewhere. Last week they built a 27-0 first half lead but were scoreless after recess and held on to win 27-20. That's been their problem all season -- an inability to close out games. That makes New England worth a play as a decent sized underdog as all the pressure is on the Texans and asking them to win by a margin may be asking too much. Since becoming an NFL power in 2001 New England has won straight up 7 of their last 8 final regular season games, falling only once, in 2005, at home to Miami by just 2 points. Two of the wins came an Underdogs including at Tennessee in 2006 in a situation similar to this when the 8-7 Titans needed a win to warn a Wild Card while the Pats had already clinched the AFC East. Their starters should see at least some action but this play is as much against Houston as it is on New England. Until Houston can show character in pressure situations, they have to be faded. New England wins 27-23.
Other Featured NFL Selections
Cincinnati + 10 over N Y JETS - This game has been moved to Sunday night and will be the final game of the regular season. Regardless of what happens earlier in the day a Jets win or tie gets them a Wild Card while a loss eliminates them. Cincy will host a Wild Card game next week - possibly against these Jets - and might be inclined to rest players and display a rather vanilla offense. Remarkably the Underdog is 14-1 ATS in Cincinnati's games this season, a stat that will be highly publicized by handicappers this week. Neither team has been productive on offense throughout the season and with the Jets likely to play conservatively this game should be low scoring. The Jets lead the league in total defense and points allowed. The Bengals rank #4 and #5 in those same categories. The Jets will look to get ahead and sit on the lead while Cincinnati will not be all that interested in taking too many chances. They'll look to keep their sharpness, realizing that a win or loss here matters little in the big picture, regardless of the seeding implications. N Y Jets win 17-13.
Atlanta - 2 over TAMPA BAY - Although they won't make the Playoffs Atlanta has a shot at the first back to back winning seasons in franchise history with a win. That should provide motivation against a Tampa team that's won their last two games, both on the road. Atlanta's ground game has been feast or famine as in 14 of their 15 games the Falcons rushed for either 148 or more yards or were held to 90 or less. They should be able to run against a Tampa team that's allowed over 150 yards in 5 of their last 7 games. Atlanta is the more talented team that''s endured many key injuries all season. Tampa Bay's season was made last week with their OT win at New Orleans. Sure, they'll put forth an effort to end their season with 3 straight wins but they may lack the intensity likely to be shown by the Falcons. QB Ryan is back for Atlanta and although RB Turner is still hobbled, his backups have filled in well. Tampa rookie QB Freeman has looked good at times and shows promise but he's also been interception prone. Atlanta wins 24-17.
SAN DIEGO - 4 over Washington - The season can't end soon enough for the Redskins who have failed to rush for over 100 yards in 6 straight games. Coach Zorn is all but out under a new regime. San Diego has clinched the AFC's #2 seed and a Bye next week. Starters may see decent action to keep fresh with a game plan that features lots of running plays to shorten the contest. The Chargers are the hottest team in the league, winners of 10 in a row. The backups are good enough to get the win and this game likely features a scarcity of scoring. One of San Diego's strengths is their depth, especially at RB and on defense. Their success this season has been the development of a balanced offense as the quality of their overall receiving corps has been upgraded. Washington may not sustain any intensity in the second half, especially if they fall behind early when the Chargers' starters are in. San Diego just has too many weapons and edges even in a game with no implications. San Diego wins 23-13.
GOLDSHEET
*KEY RELEASES*
CLEVELAND by 16 over Jacksonville
ATLANTA by 11 over Tampa Bay
OVER THE TOTAL in the Pittsburgh-Miami game
POINTWISE
NFL KEY RELEASES
BALTIMORE over Oakland RATING: 3
PHILADELPHIA over Dallas RATING: 4
CINCINNATI over New York Jets RATING: 4
KANSAS CITY over Denver RATING: 5
DETROIT over Chicago RATING: 5
PLAYBOOK
5* BEST BET Philadelphia over DALLAS by 10
Did someone say December woes? Don’t look now but after a
couple of December road wins, the Dallas Cowboys fi nd themselves
one home win away from claiming the NFC East crown. That win
won’t be easy as the Philadelphia Eagles, winners of six straight,
come calling. The Eagles also have visions of an NFC East title
dancing in their heads. And thanks to Minnesota’s Monday night
loss, they now control their own destiny for a 1st-round bye. Andy
Reid’s bunch will be making their fi rst venture to ‘Jerry World’ but
they have come away with the SU win in two of their last three visits
to ‘Big D’ and grabbed the cash in all three. They are also a very
profi table 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS when seeking revenge against the
Cowboys. Reid, himself, has been money on the division highway
posting a 26-11 ATS log, including 14-3 ATS with revenge. The
Cowboys enter off a shutout win over Washington but they are just
1-5 ATS after allowing 10 or less points. While they have had their
way with losing teams (7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS), Romo and the boys
are just 3-5 SU and ATS against winning opposition this season. As
we outlined in the last issue of PLAYBOOK, despite the win over
the Redskins, Romo has struggled in his NFL career in games off a
win from December out with a 1-9 ATS record. The Cowboys have
swept the Eagles just once in the past 10 years and with that allimportant
week off waiting in the wings, the Birds are not about
to let it happen this year. With the same division dog angle coming
into play as in the Saints-Panthers game, grab the points ASAP. Like
free bailouts, they may not last long
4* BEST BET Jacksonville over CLEVELAND by 7
Speaking of saving jobs, the Brownies look to close out the season on
a four-game winning streak while the Jaguars hope to avoid a 2ndstraight
losing season. For Cleveland’s Eric Mangini, that might not
be enough as new head of football operations, Mike Holmgren, may
look to bring in his own people. From an ATS standpoint, Holmgren
will be looking at a team that is a pathetic 0-6 ATS after allowing 10
or less points and 1-5 off BB SU wins versus less than .500 opposition.
The former Seattle HC will be also watching a Cleveland bunch that is
1-10 ‘In The Stats’ in their last 11 games and just 3-12 SU in franchise
history off back-to-back wins. Holmgren would be impressed, though,
if they can defeat a Jaguars’ team that is basically down to their last
life. Our SMART BOX tells us the Cats need a win and a fi ve-team
parlay to make the AFC playoffs BUT they are still mathematically
alive. Series history certainly sides with Jacksonville, as they are
a perfect 4-0 SU in their visits to the banks of the Cuyahoga River.
They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS losses in
which they allowed 35 or more points in their last game. The Browns
defeated the Jaguars last season in Jacksonville as 7-point dogs. We’ll
look for the Jags and their 11-2 ATS mark with revenge versus less
than .500 foes to turn the tables this season – and maybe keep the
axe from falling on Del Rio in the process.
3* BEST BET SAN DIEGO over Washington by 11
The Bolts host what is sure to be Jim Zorn’s fi nal game as the boss
hog. And after last week’s listless effort against arch-rival Dallas, it’s
hard to envision an inspired effort this week against what fi gures
to be a bevy of backups disguised as Chargers. Unlike the Colts’ laydown
last week, San Diego will be out to extend its 10-game win
skein and carry with it a good dose of momentum into the playoffs.
They certainly have the numbers: 15-6 ATS as favorites versus a losing
team off a double-digit defeat, 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS home off backto-
back wins and 11-1 ATS off a win versus NFC East opposition. The
question is whether you can you lay the Skins to rest one fi nal time?
With teams off a shutout loss standing 0-5 SU and ATS in season
fi nales against .666 or greater opponents, we say yes, you can
CKO
10 PHILADELPHIA over *Dallas
PHILADELPHIA 23 - *Dallas 16
Dallas has struck back at ghosts of Decembers past with back-to-back road victories at New Orleans and Washington. But gaining a 2009 sweep of Philly and this year’s NFC East crown figures to be a tougher task. The Eagles are also closing the campaign with a rush (six straight wins), and they possess the type of speed that has given the Dallas defense fits all season. Andy Reid (16-3 SU in Dec. & Jan. regular-season games the last four years) knows how to get his offense in a late groove.
10 SAN FRANCISCO over *St. Louis
SAN FRANCISCO 27 - *St. Louis 10
While St. Louis is limping into the offseason (and why not, with a chance to draft either Ndamukong Suh or a new, young QB), San Francisco (7-8) is fighting hard to avoid a losing season. The Rams are hurting in many areas that the hardnosed 49ers can exploit—namely, QB, WR, OL & S. And things could get even worse if star RB Steven Jackson is held out again with a herniated disk (why play him?). S.F. is pretty healthy for this time of the season, and the Niners easily won the first meeting TY when RB Frank Gore was sidelined and WR Michael Crabtree was holding out. Mike Singletary is 10-4-1 vs. the spread in his first full season as HC.
NINE-RATED GAMES: OAKLAND (+9½) vs. Baltimore
VEGAS EXPERTS
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
The Texans have lost outright four times as a favorite this season. Overall, they have laid points nine different times this season only covered three of those games. New England is 33-19 ATS as an underdog in the Belichick era. They are 22-5 ATS vs. teams with a win percentage of between .510 and .600. Houston is only 2-4-1 ATS at home this season and always performs at its worst when the pressure is on.
Play on: New England
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Atlanta Falcons -1
Bottom Line: While the Falcons are out of the playoff hunt, they have a chance to post back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in franchise history and I expect them to get that done here. Tampa Bay is just 1-5 SU & ATS at home and I can't see the Bucs getting up for this one the same way they did for the Saints last week. The Buccaneers are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog while the Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less. Take the Falcons.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Antonio –2 over TORONTO
Fact is, the Raps can’t beat good teams and that’s been proven over and over and over again this year. Toronto has won nine of its last 14 but a close looks shows them beating Charlotte, Detroit twice, New Orleans, New Jersey, Houston, Minnesota, Chicago and Washington. If you throw in the putrid Pacers, that makes up the Raps last 10 wins. Of all those teams, only the Rockets are above .500 and when they lost to Toronto it was its sixth road game in seven starts. The Raps played a depleted Boston team last night and lost by seven, however, that score is flattering, as they were down 9-12 points the whole way. The Raps recently lost to Orlando by 19, to Miami by 20, to Atlanta by 22, to Milwaukee by also 22 and the list of blowouts to good teams goes on and on and on. The Spurs have a huge edge in the coaching department and there’s just no way that Greg Popovich is going to let an unproven coach on a bad team beat him. Raps get ruined by every good team they play and there’s nothing to suggest this one will be any different. Play: San Antonio –2 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
ILLINOIS ST./S. Illinois OVER 142
What we have hear is a case of two prolific offenses meeting for the first time this season and that is definitely to this wagers advantage. Firstly, college basketball fans need to be aware of Illinois St. as a potential sleeper tournament team, as they spot a 10-3 record thus far this season after posting 24 wins last year. They rank in the top 40 in college basketball in offensive efficiency and dominate the offensive glass, collecting 37.8% of missed field goals while making 52.8% of their inside shots. Southern Illinois meanwhile sports a 9-2 record but shows a worrying defensive statistic for this particular matchup, as they allow opponents to shoot 50.7% on two-point field goals, a weakness Illinois State will certainly take advantage off. The other great advantage to making this wager is that both teams rank in the top 100 in free throw percentage, with Illinois State checking in at 71.8% and Southern Illinois at 75.6%. The combination of potent offenses facing each other for the first time this season and both teams shooting relatively well from the charity stripe makes this an over play. The books are still making some mistakes with regards to the mid-major conference totals and this is one of them. If these schools happened to have “Syracuse” and “Kansas” on the front of their jerseys this number would be about 10 points higher but luckily for us that isn’t the case yet. Play: Illinois St./Southern Illinois over 142 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).