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Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles LakersFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play:Denver Nuggets -1FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Our NBA Play of the Day for Sunday we are taking the points with the Denver Nuggets as they travel to the City of Angels for a meeting against the hometown Lakers. The Lakers qualify in one of our NBA League-wide systems. We want to Play AGAINST home teams (not a favorite of 6+ points or underdog of more than 1 point) off a SU win of 10 or more points. These hosts have been gracious to the visitors in this situation posting a mark of 10-24 ATS failing to cover the spread by an average of 5.72 points per game. Over the last 17 games the home teams in this situation have posted a record of 4-13 ATS. We will back the Nuggets on Sunday in the City of Angels.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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CINCINNATI -7 over San DiegoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Doesn't matter how you get there, you just gotta get there. The Chargers played against the Chiefs, who were sitting 22 different players and by all right should have lost. Ryan Succop missed a 41-yard field goal wide right to allow the game to go into overtime, where the Chargers won on their own field goal. Not only was the missed field goal a shock, but the Chargers should have been called for having seven men on one side of the field goal attempt and should have been penalized. That would have allowed the Chiefs to retry the kick from 36-yards out. In other words, the Chargers should be watching this one from the rail instead of traveling across the country to play in frigid conditions. San Diego may wish they stayed home because they are not a playoff team. They are a middling AFC team that had a couple of miracle wins, a couple of nice wins and a few disturbing losses. The Chargers are a poor road team with poor team defense. They have Philip Rivers, who has never won a big game at this level and that’s when he had great personnel around him. This time he does not and he’ll face a Cinci defense that possesses a top secondary that is even better when they play at home.
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The Bengals won five of their last six games and the offense was scoring more and the defense allowing less. The Bengals are hitting the post-season at a nice time since this is as close to peaking that they have been this year and at home, they have been as close to perfect as any team. When we look at the Bengals last five home games we them defeating Baltimore, 34-17, Minnesota 42-14, Indianapolis 42-28, Cleveland 41-20 and the Jets, 49-9. With the exception of a 20-16 home win over Green Bay in Week 3, all of the other Bengals home wins were by seven points or more and that’s all we have to spot here. The Bengals have been destroying teams at home for weeks now while the Chargers have a history of playing their worse when the stakes are highest. his should be a sold win for the Bengals and that’s precisely how we’re playing it.
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Arkansas State +7 over Ball StateFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The 10-2 Ball State Cardinals are a 7-point choice over the 7-5 Red Wolves of Arkansas State and right off the bat we get an inflated price based on records. Ball State also has put up some tremendous offensive numbers this season but a close look reveals that the Cardinals have played one of the weakest schedules in all of Division I football. The Cardinals best win this year came against the 7-5 Toledo Rockets. Three of their conference wins came against Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan and Miami (Ohio). Combined, those three (Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan and Miami-Ohio) went 2-22 in the MAC. Another Cardinal victory occurred against the 2-10 Virginia Cavaliers. In Ball State’s only statement game of the season, it failed miserably in a 48-27 whipping by Northern Illinois. This is a Cardinal club that has proved nothing this year except that they can defeat lousy teams with weak defenses. Don’t be influence by all you read about Ball State’s “underrated” QB. Keith Wenning is good but again, he ripped apart lousy defenses week after week after week.
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Arkansas State of the Sun Belt Conference is the lesser known of the two, which almost always creates an overlay. The Sun Belt Conference had one other Bowl Participant in Louisiana Lafayette, who defeated Tulane 24-21 in the New Orleans Bowl. The Red Wolves won four of their past five games with QB Adam Kennedy getting very hot down the stretch. Kennedy is a dual threat that can run for big yardage or pass for big yardage. Arkansas State played SEC powers Auburn and Missouri this season and although they lost them both it served them well the rest of the way. After playing those two juggernauts Arkansas State won five of their next seven games. Never ignore what pedigree is saying and in this case the MAC’s pedigree is proving to be horrible this Bowl season. So far three teams from the MAC (Bowling Green, Buffalo and Northern Illinois) have played in a Bowl game and all three lost. This isn’t even a MAC champion spotting 7, it’s a team with zero notable wins both in the conference and zero notable wins overall. The Red Wolves can win this game outright and offer up too much value taking back 7 points to pass up on.
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SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT ILLINOIS STATESERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: SOUTHERN ILLINOIS +7FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Coaches put a tremendous emphasis on the tendencies of opponents when mapping out game plans. This is true in every sport now, with the vast array of data available. I think it’s just as important for anyone analyzing an upcoming event to also try and capitalize on tendencies of a different type when it comes to trying to pick a winner.
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Illinois State has a tendency that I think comes into play today as the Redbirds play host to Southern Illinois in a Missouri Valley Conference hookup. In this case, it’s a mental tendency that was established last season and the Redbirds are going to have to prove to me that it’s not going to be a key variable this season as well.
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Stated simply, Illinois State was a disaster last year when it came to handling adversity. This was a team that was 17-14 during the regular season, but rather than winning a couple and then dropping one, the entire campaign was a series of streaks.
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The problem for the Redbirds was that if they lost a tough game, it carried over to the next game and then some. They also had a couple of memorable in-game meltdowns that were more mental than physical.
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I’m not guaranteeing the same thing happens this time around. Maybe Dan Muller will find a way to get his team past a difficult loss and we’ll see a rapid rebound from the Redbirds. But Illinois State is off a very tough OT loss at Missouri State where they blew a huge lead, and that’s a major red flag for me.
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The bad news as far as this play goes is that I’m going to have to rely on a lousy Southern Illinois squad to do something positive today. The Salukis have won only four games, and those victories weren’t against what you’d call stellar opposition.
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On paper, this is a game Illinois State is supposed to win. The Redbirds are absolutely the better team. But given their tendencies under Dan Muller since his arrival as head coach, I believe there’s a case to be made for them likely having a bad game today. That’s the impetus for my backing the dog. Southern Illinois plus the points is the call.
Bob Balfe
Ball State -7
I don’t understand how this can be the second to last bowl game of the year. Should this game not be played with the other crappy bowl games before Christmas? Ball State has a great passing game with a quarterback who has NFL ability. I just think this Cardinal team will put up a ton of points and if Arkansas State gets down they don’t have ability to pass to get back in this game. Ball State is great at winning the turnover battle and are searching for their very first bowl win as a school. Arkansas State has an interim coach taking over for this game. The time is now for Ball State to bring home a bowl trophy. Take the Cardinals
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Bengals -6.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cincinnati Bengals were among three teams to compile an 8-0 record at home this season and look to keep that perfect mark intact when they host the San Diego Chargers on Sunday in the opening round of the NFL playoffs. The Bengals already won at San Diego 17-10 on Dec. 1 en route to capturing the AFC North title and reaching the playoffs for the third straight season. Cincinnati hopes the home-field edge can end a lengthy run of futility since its last postseason victory in January 1991. San Diego was held to a season-low point total and committed three turnovers in the first meeting and will have to contend with temperatures near freezing and a potential wintry mix and I early start time. I am more then willing to lay less then a touchdown with the Bengals here at home.
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49ers -2.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The San Francisco 49ers enter the postseason as the league's hottest team and it may take the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to cool them off when they visit the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. The 49ers closed the regular season with six consecutive wins and have won the past three matchups with the Packers, who clinched the NFC North last week with a 33-28 win at Chicago in Aaron Rodgers' return to the lineup. It will be a rematch of the season opener, won by host San Francisco 34-28. Green Bay has been unable to slow the 49ers' offense, surrendering an average of 36.3 points in the past three defeats, including a 45-31 drubbing in last season's playoffs. The weather could have a major bearing on Sunday's matchup - the high temperature is expected to be zero degrees with wind chills reaching minus-30. I see that hurting the Packers more then the 49ers. Back the 49ers minus less then a field goal.
NellyFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego Chargers + over Cincinnati BengalsSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bengals were dominant at home this season, going 8-0 S/U and ATS, while out-scoring foes on average 34-17, the same as the turnover-filled week 17 score against rival Baltimore. Andy Dalton had four interceptions in last week's big game and the Bengals had 30 turnovers on the season, only below Houston and Oakland in the AFC for the season. San Diego featured one of the best offenses in the NFL this season and while the Chargers caught some breaks to get into the playoff field, they won five of the final six games of the season with the lone loss coming in week 13 at home against these Bengals. The yardage was nearly even in that 17-10 win for Cincinnati but San Diego had three turnovers in the game including two in scoring range. Philip Rivers has dramatically out-played Dalton this season and the San Diego defense has been much better of late than the season statistics suggest with the Chargers allowing fewer than 18 points per game over the last five contests. The early start and cold temperatures have inflated the spread for the home team but Cincinnati has never won or covered in a playoff game under Marvin Lewis and the speed of the Chargers should get a boost playing on turf for the first time this season. San Diego is on a 34-15-1 ATS run as an underdog since 2004 and the Chargers are a threat here as well.
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Green Bay Packers + over San Francisco 49ersSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The 49ers have delivered six straight wins to close the season with the defense allowing fewer than 16 points per game. Only one win came against a playoff team however and the 49ers have allowed significant passing yardage this season. The return of Aaron Rodgers and the late game dramatics for the Packers shifts the value in this line but it cannot be ignored that Green Bay has allowed over 30 points per game over the last 10 games. With Rodgers Green Bay has scored almost 31 points per game this season and this will be a huge game for the Packers after losing three prominent games against the 49ers the last two seasons including last year's disastrous playoff game in which Colin Kaepernick dominated on the ground. In the week 1 meeting this season the 49ers dominated in the air but both of those meetings were in San Francisco, not at Lambeau Field. The San Francisco secondary has been very suspect this season and with the Packers offense at full strength this becomes a favorable matchup for the Green Bay offense despite the notable losses in this series. The 49ers only played one cold weather game this season, a low-scoring win at 3-13 Washington, though San Francisco covered in all but one road game on the season. The 49ers have allowed 64% passing the last three games and the Packers have only been a home underdog three times with Rodgers starting, winning the last two instances. Home underdogs in the playoffs are 23-11 ATS since 1980 including 16-6 if playing with revenge and given the historically cold temperatures the home team should have significant advantages even though San Francisco is the more complete team overall.
Ross BenjaminFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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49ers -2.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Any favorite or underdog of 2.5 or less (San Francisco) that's playing in game 15 of the season or beyond, that's coming off a division away win by 16-points or less, versus an opponent (Green Bay) coming off a win, has gone 14-0 SU&ATS since the beginning of the 1992 season. The average margin of victory in those 14-games is 12.5 points.
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Any away favorite with a winning percentage of .600 or better that's playing in game 9 of the season or beyond, they've won 15 or more of their last 32-games, versus an opponent coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they scored 42-points or less, and that opponent has a less than .600 winning percentage, has gone 10-0 SU&ATS since the beginning of the 1999 season. The away team won those 10-games by an average of 13.0 points.
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Any favorite or underdog of 2.5 or less (San Francisco), that comes off an away win by 3-points or less, they're playing in game 10 of the season or beyond, they have a winning percentage of between .600 to .750, versus an opponent (Green Bay) with a winning record, has gone 7-0 SU&ATS since the beginning of the 1992 season. The average margin of victory in those 7-games was 16.4 points.
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Boston vs. Oklahoma CityFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: BostonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a treacherous spot for Oklahoma City.SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Thunder went into Minnesota and came from behind to defeat the T'wolves Saturday. They needed every bit of Kevin Durant's 48 points to erase a double-digit fourth quarter deficit and pull out the win. But they were fortunate as well in that Kevin Love missed four key free throws in the final 30 seconds, including all three after being fouled w/ just 2.2 seconds to go.
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Since losing Russell Westbrook, the Thunder have one just one game by more than four points. Tonight, the pesky Boston Celtics come to town and while they have lost three in a row, two of those have come by three points or less. I've said it before, but HC Brad Stevens is doing a wonderful job here given what he had to work with. One thing that the Celtics do very well is defend the three-ball. Opponents are making only 32.5% from behind the arc against them this season. Meanwhile, they themselves lead the league in field goal percentage on shot attempts from 10 to 14 feet at 47 percent. OKC is right behind them at 45.5%, but that's largely because Westbrook was shooting 47.1% himself.
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The Thunder have not lost three straight home games since relocating from Seattle. But that's what they are faced with here. While I do believe they will have enough to take the game straight up from the rebuilding Celtics, playing in the second night of back to backs after such hard fought win will make it tough for them to do so by any kind of significant margin.
Jimmy Boyd
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New York Knicks +7
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The Knicks have shown a lot of heart recently. They pulled off a big upset against San Antonio, and then managed to stay within two points of Houston while playing in a back-to-back situation without rest. This is New York’s fourth consecutive road game and I think they will come to play and end this four game stretch on a positive note. Dallas is playing in a big letdown spot after losing to the Clippers in their last outing. The Mavericks have tough games against the Lakers and Spurs coming up, and I think they are in a perfect situation to look past the Knicks.
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The Knicks have a 4-1 ATS record in their last five road games. After an abysmal start to the season it appears the oddsmakers have given up on the Knicks, and may be overcompensating on their lines. New York has quietly posted a 5-2 ATS record when coming off a loss. The Mavericks, on the other hand, have continuously been given too much love from the oddsmakers. Dallas is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games, and they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games when playing against a team with a losing record. I look for New York to come into this matchup showing the same heart they have shown in their last two games.
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Washington State vs. Arizona StateSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Washington State +11½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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On Sunday, Play On underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Washington State, after going under the total by more than 18 points in two consecutive games. The thinking here is teams like the Cougars are thought to get back to normal scoring-wise and are of value as a double digit underdog. This exact same free college hoops play won yesterday and is a sensational 30-5 ATS the past five years, with the average score differential is 7.9 points a game.
Jack Jones
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San Diego Chargers +7
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San Diego has a ton of momentum after closing out the season with four straight wins just to make the playoffs. Philip Rivers improved to 30-6 in the month of December by leading the Chargers to a 27-24 overtime victory over the Chiefs in Week 17. It was their second win of the season against Kansas City. Plus, the Chargers went on the road and beat Denver, so they have proven they can go anywhere and beat anyone.
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The Chargers have been in every game that they have played. Indeed, all seven of their losses came by 10 points or less, including five by 7 points or fewer. This team simply does not get blown out, so when you are getting seven points with them, it’s hard not to pull the trigger. They’ll be wanting revenge from their 10-17 loss to the Bengals in the first meeting. They simply gave that game away by committing three turnovers.
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San Diego is hitting on all cylinders offensively, scoring 26 or more points in each of its last four games coming in. It ranks 5th in the league in total offense at 393.1 yards per game. Philip Rivers is having arguably the best season of his career. Rivers is completing 69.5 percent of his passes for 4,478 yards with 32 touchdowns against 11 interceptions on the year. Ryan Matthews has quietly had his most productive season yet, rushing for 1,255 yards and six scores.
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The Chargers are 30-16 against the spread after having won five or six of its last seven games since 1992. San Diego is 4-0 against the spread in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Cincinnati is 1-7 against the number in its last eight January games. The Bengals are 0-4 against the number in their last four Wild Card games. The road team is 6-1 against the spread in the last seven meetings in this series. Bet the Chargers Sunday.
Dave Price
Iowa +6½
Iowa has had a lot of success against Wisconsin in recent years. The Hawkeyes have won three of the past five meetings with the two losses coming by just three and four points. A big reason for Iowa's success in the series has been its three-point defense. The Badgers are very reliant on the three-point shot as they attempt an average of 21 per game and make an average of eight. They'll have a difficult time reaching their average against an Iowa team that ranks ninth in the country in three-point field goal percentage defense (27.2% allowed). The Badgers are just 32 of 118 (27.1%) from three-point range in their last five games against Iowa, and the Hawkeyes are 12-3 ATS the last two seasons versus teams that attempt an average of 21 three-point shots or more per game. You want to fade favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a road blowout win of 20 points or more in a matchup between that have winning percentage of 80% or higher. Doing so has produced a 35-11 ATS mark since 1997. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by 6.6 points on average but have won by only 1.9 points on average. Take the points.
Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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49ers -2.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Here we have two teams on the complete opposites when being compared by strength of schedule. The 49ers had one of the strongest slates in the league while Green Bay faced one of the easiest. The Packers toughest game of the year was the opener against these 49ers. After that they played just two other teams that made the playoffs, Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Green Bay lost all three of those games by a combined margin of 24 points. Despite the easy slate of games the Packers could only out gain the opposition 6.0 to 5.9 yards per play. We are well aware of the Aaron Rodgers injury situation but those numbers are hard to ignore, yet I haven't seen the mainstream media talking much about them. That is why we find value on what we consider the far better team.
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San Francisco was 12-4 in the regular season despite playing twice as many playoff opponents than the Packers. In fact, the only losses on the season came against playoff foes. Unlike the Packers, the 49ers out gained the opposition 5.4 to 5.0 yards per play. This despite running the ball 53% of the time, which makes the ypp numbers even more impressive. 5.4 ypp despite facing the defenses of Seattle and Arizona twice. Because San Francisco traded away Alex Smith before the season we felt the team was very reluctant to put Colin Kaepernick in peril by having him run the ball. The brass knew they could survive the regular season with conservative play calling and a sound defense. But now that the playoffs have arrived we wouldn't be surprised to see the 49er offensive playbook opened up.
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Many will give an edge in this game to the Packers because of the frigid conditions, saying Green Bay is used to playing in these conditions because of where they live. We don't buy into that. San Francisco has one of the toughest environments to play in with a swirling wind and cold conditions of their own. Besides the most important offensive player on the team played his college ball in Reno Nevada. The 49ers are the better team in just about every facet except quarterback and Rodgers is one game removed from the injury list. The freezing conditions can't be good for his recently healed collar bone. One hit and this game could be a complete domination.
Carlos Salazar
San Diego Chargers vs Cincinnati Bengals
Play: San Diego Chargers
Don't fall for the Bengals home record of 8-0. They have never played well under Lewis in the playoffs and this year will be no different. Look for San Diego to keep this one close all game and pressure the Bengals into at least 3 turnovers.