Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 8

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Maryland at NC State
The Terps look to take advantage of an NC State team that is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games against ACC opponents. Maryland is the pick (+10) according to Dunkel, which has the Wolfpack favored by only 8. Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+10)

Game 841-842: Indiana at Penn State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 72.224; Penn State 63.697
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 8 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Indiana by 6 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-6 1/2); Under

Game 843-844: Wisconsin at Michigan (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 71.690; Michigan 72.433
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 1; 120
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 1 1/2; 113
Dunkel Pick Michigan (+1 1/2); Over

Game 845-846: DePaul at Villanova (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 56.420; Villanova 65.855
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 9 1/2; 158
Vegas Line: Villanova by 7 1/2; 153
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-7 1/2); Over

Game 847-848: Massachusetts at LaSalle (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 60.550; LaSalle 62.670
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 2; 137
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 5 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (+5 1/2); Under

Game 849-850: Valparaiso at Wright State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 55.865; Wright State 58.530
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 2 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Wright State by 1 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (-1 1/2); Over

Game 851-852: Butler at Detroit (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 60.723; Detroit 59.414
Dunkel Line: Butler by 1 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Butler (+2); Under

Game 853-854: Arizona at USC (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 68.234; USC 60.701
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 7 1/2; 105
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 108
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-2 1/2); Under

Game 855-856: Maryland at NC State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 57.156; NC State 65.335
Dunkel Line: NC State by 8; 153
Vegas Line: NC State by 10; 149
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+10); Over

Game 857-858: Purdue at Minnesota (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 67.986; Minnesota 67.308
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 1; 122
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 2; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (+2); Under

Game 859-860: California at Oregon (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 68.456; Oregon 64.865
Dunkel Line: California by 3 1/2; 140
Vegas Line: California by 1; 137
Dunkel Pick: California (-1); Over

Game 861-862: VCU at Drexel (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 63.581; Drexel 64.660
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 1; 117
Vegas Line: VCU by 1; 119
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (+1); Under

Game 863-864: Niagara at Siena (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 47.044; Siena 54.325
Dunkel Line: Siena by 7 1/2; 143
Vegas Line: Siena by 4 1/2; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-4 1/2); Over

Game 865-866: Rider at St. Peter's (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 49.666; St. Peter's 50.155
Dunkel Line: Even; 128
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 2; 136
Dunkel Pick: Rider (+2); Under

Game 867-868: Iona at Marist (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 62.304; Marist 46.321
Dunkel Line: Iona by 16; 168
Vegas Line: Iona by 14 1/2; 165
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-14 1/2); Over

Game 869-870: Columbia at Elon (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 51.288; Elon 51.641
Dunkel Line: Even; 119
Vegas Line: Elon by 2; 123 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbia (+2); Under

Game 871-872: Fairfield at Manhattan (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 57.245; Manhattan 55.345
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 2; 138
Vegas Line: Pick; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield; Over

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. GIANTS -3 +102 over Atlanta

Forget records. Forget most of the stats. The basic difference between these two is that that Falcons are soft and the Giants are not. Come playoff time, gritty trumps pretty. The Giants’ recent schedule had them defeating the Cowboys in two must wins. They beat the Jets in an important battle of New York. Prior to those contests, the Giants went toe-to-toe with the Packers, lost in New Orleans, dropped a tough one to rival Eagles, lost in San Francisco and defeated the Patriots. Suddenly, 9-7 doesn’t look so bad. It wasn’t quite the same for the Falcons. After their Week 8 bye, Atlanta faced just one playoff team and it was none other than the Saints team they were chasing for the division but lost both, the latter by 29 points. Other games included the Bucs, Jaguars, Vikings, Titans and Colts. This is not a great setting for the Falcons. Atlanta plays best in a dome, where it hosted eight games this season and also had the luxury of playing four road games indoors. This is outside, in East Rutherford, in January, in cold and in wind. Conditions aside, the Giants are getting healthier, particularly on defence. Jason Pierre-Paul has become a feared pass rusher and combined with Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora, the Giants’ can pressure Matt Ryan all afternoon. New York’s Eli Manning is at the top of his game and has found a rhythm with an exhilarating Victor Cruz. When the going gets tough, the Giants get going and we expect nothing less here. Play: N.Y. Giants -3 +102 (Risking 2 units).

DENVER +9 over Pittsburgh

This one isn’t about who can win, it’s more a case of whether the Broncos can score enough points to cover. Not often do you see a road favorite in this price range with the total sitting at 34. We won’t bore you with the mathematical details but basically, oddsmakers are estimating that Denver should score approximately 13 points. So our next question becomes, if the projection is accurate, will Pittsburgh get the 23 points or so needed to cover? We’re thinking they won’t. The Steelers have been on the limp for the past few weeks. QB Ben Roethlisberger has been hobbling around and is clearly not at full speed. Pittsburgh lost its top runner in the season finale when Rashard Mendenhall went down and will be replaced by Isaac Redman. Safety Ryan Clark is also out but that shouldn’t matter. Safeties are only required when the opposition has a quarterback. The Broncos do not. They have a guy that lines up under center, who is an upstanding young man with strong religious beliefs, who is quite athletic and might make a good slotback someday. But Tim Tebow is not a quarterback. Denver’s defense is the key here and with the Broncos playing at home while taking a slew of points against a hurting visitor, a low scoring affair seems likely. Play: Denver +9 (No bets).

Hollywood Sports

Arkansas St. at Northern Illinois
Prediction: Under

It may be tempting to take the Over given the memory of Northern Illinois' 63-60 win on the first Tuesday night in November against Toledo -- but the Huskies (10-3) played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after that high-profile nationally televised contest. Northern Illinois averages 247.6 rushing YPG (9th in the FBS) this season -- and such a dedication to the ground game that churns off time from the clock is not the formula for expecting more than 60 combined points to be scored. The Huskies have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total played on a neutral field. And Northern Illinois has played 5 straight games Under the Total as an underdog. Arkansas State (10-2) have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as a small favorite of three points or less. The Red Wolves have also seen the Under go a decisive 16-4-2 in their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, in their last 16 games against teams outside the Sun Belt, Arkansas State saw the Under go 12-3-1. The number is set too high in this one -- take the Under.

Terron Chapman

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Washington Wizards +2.5

The Washington Wizards sit alone as the only NBA team still searching for its first victory -- in fact, every other team has at least two victories. Good news for the lowly Wizards as their next opponent, the Minnesota Timberwolves, have lost three straight and haven’t won in the Nation’s Capital in their last eight visits. The two will meet Sunday afternoon at the Verizon Center.

The Wizards came up just short in their last attempt to enter the win column with a 99-96 loss to the New York Knicks Friday night. The effort was there, but the Wizards squandered a 32-18 first quarter lead with a lackluster second quarter performance (15-28) to let the Knicks back in the game heading into halftime. Nick Young led the host with 24 points while John Wall added 22 points and nine assists. But, it wasn’t enough to overcome a 37-point effort by Carmelo Anthony, which put the Knicks up for good on a 3-pointer with 15.9 seconds left.

The Timberwolves will be playing just their second road game thus far this season, the fewest of any team in the league. The Timberwolves challenged Miami, Milwaukee, and Oklahoma City to open the season. Although, after snapping a nine-game at-home losing streak to Dallas and defeating San Antonio for the first time in 17 tries, Minnesota has lost to Memphis - which was without injured forward Zach Randolph - and Cleveland. Even still, the Wolves enter Sunday’s contest as a 2.5-point favorite at the window.

The two teams split last season's meetings with each team holding serve on their home floor. Michael Beasley sprained his right foot late in Friday's contest and is expected to miss this stretch of three games in three days. J.J. Barea is questionable after missing the last three games with a strained right hamstring. With the Wolves not completely healthy and the Wizards as desperate a team as they come, we’ll look for the Wizards to enter Sunday’s game with an edge. Both teams will be eager to get back in the win column, but we expect the host Wizards to do just enough down the stretch to overcome the odds and earn their first victory of the season. Take the points and the host at your sports book. Play on the Washington Wizards (+) the points for 1 unit.

Tradeline Sports

Arkansas State at Northern Illinois
PLAY: Arkansas State -117

Backing a team (Arkansas State) in the second half of the season (7-plus games into the schedule) that averages 3.5 to 4.3 yards per carry on the ground following two straight games where they allowed 125 yards rushing or less against a team that allows (Northern Illinois) 3.5 to 4.3 yards per carry on the season has been a matchup that heavily favors the better defense, or one that is in form. The trend favors Arkansas State here, a bias that has cashed at a 34-8 (81%) clip over the last 10 seasons and a scenario that is 2-0 this season. The average money line posted in these games has the lean team as an underdog with a money line of +107 with the final average score finding the lean team winning by an average of 10 points. Play Arkansas State either on the money line at -117 or lay the small pointspread in this event.

Joseph D'Amico

Atlanta at New York
Play: New York

New York has won the L3 meetings over Atlanta, covering 2 of the 3. The Falcons post season hopes hit a wall last year in the name of the Packers. Atlanta hosted Green Bay, only to get shellacked, 48-21. That game was indoors, at home, in front of a friendly crowd. Now they must go on the road, in the cold, in front of one of the most-threatening crowds in football. All season long, the Giants have had injury issues in their secondary but they seem to have come together recently as they have held both the Jets and Cowboys to just 14 points each. Dropped passes and mistakes by Falcons QB Matt Ryan has hampered the offense this year. On the offensive side of the ball, NY averages 24.6 PPG (9th in the league) and are 5th in passing with 295.9 YPG in the air. Atlanta is strong against the run but gives up 236.6 YPG to the pass. Despite their 10-6 record, the Falcons are missing that "X" factor that makes them feared by opposing teams. Therefore, foes come in facing them with confidence. The Giants have Eli. The "other" Manning that also dons a Super Bowl ring and the one that has tossed 15 4th qtr. TDs this season. Oh yeah! And Manning has Victor Cruz. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS their L5 playoff games and 0-4 ATS their L4 games played against teams with a winning record. The Giants are 5-1 ATS their L6 Playoff games and 4-0 ATS their L4 vs. winners. This game will come down to who wants it more and that is why I have the New York Giants here.

Jim Feist

Arizona vs USC
Pick: Arizona

PAC-12 play underway now as Arizona travels to USC here on Sunday. The Wildcats are 1-1 in conference play, 10-5 overall after losing to UCLA on Thursday, 65-58. Still, the Cats have won three of four games and covered four of their last six games. USC (0-3 Conf, 5-11 Overall) looks to snap a four game losing streak. This version of the Trojans has definite scoring issues. During their four game losing streak they have scored 47, 49, 43 and 53 points. In fact, if you toss out their 83 points against TCU, the Trojans have not scored more than 66 points in any game. Moreover, USC has cracked into the 60's or higher in just five of their 16 games. Low number to fade here on Sunday with Arizona laying 2 1/2 points. Arizona can play defense and that likely means another low score for USC here on Sunday. Take Arizona as your free play Sunday.

EZWINNERS

Pittsburgh Steelers -9

This is a touch match up for the Broncos who after a nice winning streak have struggled to end the season. Denver actually backed their way into the playoffs after a 7-3 home loss to the Chiefs last week thanks to a Raiders home loss to the Chargers. The Steelers come into this game beat up with injuries, but they still have more than enough horses to win this game by double digits. The Blueprint to beat Denver is to make Tebow throw the ball and Pittsburgh will do just that. That is bad news for the Broncos and their futile passing attack against the Steelers number one ranked pass defense. Tebow's running ability is what usually beats teams, but the Steelers seven man front is very hard to run against as they have some of the fastest inside linebackers in the league. When they bring up Polamalu into the box it is almost impossible to gain yards on the ground. The Steelers have lost starting running back Rashard Mendenhall for the playoffs due to a knee injury, but back up running backs Isacc Redmon and John Clay are more than capable and Pittsburgh first and foremost is a passing team. Big Ben has speedy targets in Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown and Emanual Sanders that can torch the Denver secondary. Playing at home has not been much of an advantage for the Broncos as Denver is on a 15-35-2 run against the spread at home and the Steelers are on a 9-2 run against the spread in the playoffs. Lay the points.

Rob Vinciletti

Fairfield vs. Manhattan
Play: Fairfield +1

Fairfield has the better numbers here as they are 7-2 straight up and ats on the road when the total is 130 to 135 and 6-0 straight up and ats as a road favorite of 3 or less or pick and 10-0 off a loss. In January they have won 15 of the last 21 and take on a Manhattan team that has lost 14 of the last 15 games vs teams with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season the past few years and thy are 1-8 straight up and ats when the total is 130 to 135 and 0-3 ats as a home dog or pick of 3 or less. Fairfield has won the last 2 here and should get the win once again here today.

Tom Grassi

Cleveland Cavaliers at Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers

the Cavs delivered for us here the other night and we used them against Minnesota. They came off that awful performance against Toronto and played very well against a Minnesota team that had played three tough games in a row and the Cavs won outright. Tonight, Cleveland steps way up in class when they take on the Blazers. Portland is a perfect 4-0 at home this season with double digit wins over Denver and the Lakers. Portland was drilled by Phoenix 102-77 on Friday and will take their frustrations out on the young Cavs. Portland scores and easy win and cover at home versus Cleveland.

Bryan Power

Detroit Red Wings @ Chicago Blackhawks
PICK: Chicago Blackhawks

Although the Red Wings have revenge for a 3-2 loss suffered here last Friday, I feel that the Blackhawks are the more desperate team right now and playing at home should carry them to a second straight victory over their division rivals. Chicago comes in on a three-game losing streak, first losing BTB games by just 1 goal to Edmonton and Philadelphia, followed by a shutout loss here at home vs. Colorado Friday. They catch Detroit in the second night of BTB's as the Red Wings were in Toronto on Saturday, losing to the Maple Leafs 4-3. Note that over the last three seasons, the Hawks are 10-1 when off three consecutive losses. This remains a very good team and they're not likely to stay down for long. Saturday's loss by Detroit is likely to take a lot out of the club, considering they trailed 3-0 after the first period, only to rally all the way back, then give up the GW goal about mid-way through the third period. Chicago remains a very strong 14-8 at home, not to mention 6-1 in division contests this year. Defense, more so than the goaltending, was to blame against Colorado as defenseman Nick Leddy made a pair of uncharacteristic mistakes that led to a pair of Avs goals. Blackhawks G Corey Crawford is 5-1 when facing Detroit w/ a 2.01 GAA. His counterpart for Detroit, Jimmy Howard, has not had the same kind of luck in this "Original Six" rivalry, going 1-4 w/ a 3.44 GAA his last five starts vs. Chicago.

David Chan

Detroit Red Wings @ Chicago Blackhawks
PICK: Chicago Blackhawks

The 25-14-1 Detroit Red Wings fly into Chicago to take on the 24-13-4 Blackhawks.

Ty Conklin is scheduled between the pipes in the second game of the back to back for Detroit; he'll be opposed by Corey Crawford.

Chicago beat Detroit 3-2 last week, but hasn't won a game since; suffice to say I expect its three game slide to end today.

The Blackhawks are coming off a listless 4-0 setback to Colorado on Friday:

“We’ve given up too many goals that can be prevented with positioning and awareness,” coach Joel Quenneville said.

Chicago has a big chance to bounce-back tonight; remember, Crawford made 26-saves in the win over the Wings last week, and is 5-1-0 with a 2.01 GAA vs. Detroit since the start of last season:

“We didn’t deserve anything,” Quenneville said. “We got what we deserved. We got to be excited with what’s up next for us - a great, big game against Detroit.”

Detroit is coming off a 4-3 loss to Toronto last night:

“That was un-Red Wing-like,” coach Mike Babcock said. “You can’t win every night in the league playing like that.”

We're getting great line-value on a desperate home side, catching a team coming off a loss just last night!

Sean Murphy

Butler @ Detroit
PICK: Butler +2

Most expected Butler to take a step back here in 2011-12, and while that's certainly been the case to a certain extent, the Bulldogs are right back where they want to be in Horizon League play, off to a strong 3-1 start.

Butler has absolutely owned Detroit over the years, and while the Titans may believe that this is their time to finally gain an ounce of revenge, I suspect Brad Stevens' squad has other ideas.

Detroit has had no luck in close games lately, dropping six games by eight points or less since the start of December. Of course, winning close games has been Butler's calling card over the years, setting this up as a difficult matchup for the Titans.

Note that Detroit has posted only two wins in its last six games, with those victories coming against weak Alabama State and Loyola-Chicago teams that are a combined 10-21 this season.

Meanwhile, Butler has won four games in a row, with each of those W's coming by five points or less. That includes a pair of tough road wins at Stanford and Wright State.

The last time we saw the Bulldogs roll into Detroit, they came away with a 23-point victory. This one won't be nearly as lopsided, but I do expect Butler to get the job done.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Cal Golden Bears -1

Motivated by Thursday's loss at Oregon State, expect Cal to get right back in the win column here against a team it has owned. The Golden Bears have won 7 in a row in this series with those wins coming by 7, 18, 32, 15, 16, 8 and 10 for a 15.1-point average margin of victory. The Golden Bears are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings at Oregon. The Bears are 0-3 in true road games this season, but those losses have come against formidable foes. Besides, the Ducks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. Cal is an impressive 40-22 ATS in all games as a favorite under coach Montgomery. Recently, it is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games as a road favorite. Take Cal.