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SPORTS WAGERS
ANAHEIM -½ +108 over Columbus
Not a lot has gone right for either one of these two teams but the Ducks are at home and they're in a much better situational spot than the Blue Jackets. Columbus played yesterday in Los Angeles. They also played on Thursday in San Jose, thus making this game its third in four days and tail end of back-to backs. The Jackets own the worst road record in the NHL and in fact, yesterdays 1-0 win over the Kings was just their third road win of the year in 20 tries. Columbus has scored just twice in their past two road games and just four times in its last three. The Ducks are coming off a much needed win over the Islanders. They have just two wins over their past five but those last five games cames against the Sharks twice, the Canucks, Avanlanche and the aforemntioned Islanders. After playing that set and with a biug edge in net, they'll find the going much easier here against the most beatable guest on the circuit. Play: Anaheim -½ +108 (Risking 2 units).
Richard Witt
DePaul +8
Large segments of the chattering classes are downgrading DePaul's chances this afternoon, based on their coming directly off a rousing home upset win of previously-ranked Pittsburgh. Beg to differ. With their basic dual scoring punch now augmented with recently-activated transfer Donnavan Kirk, DePaul's a new club, advancing after years and years of (frequently-futile) basebuilding. They have miles to go, but they're more than eligible to play the fallen Wildcats stiff. It was no accident Nova looked terrible against South Florida midweek in The Pavilion, and the Main Line horror shows aren't over, given the composition of this very young Nova club.
JR O'Donnell
Va. Commonwealth -1
Tonight we go back to the Colonial Athletic Association with the VCU Ram visiting the Drexel Dragons. Drexel was picked to be #1 in pre-season and VCU was picked third because of losses in personnel. Rams are 11-4 and Drexel is 9-5, but they have played at a different level. VCU has won "8" of their last "9" , and their losses have been to Seton Hall, Georgia Tech, Alabama and league leading Georgia State by "2"! The Dragons have lost to UVA where they scored only "35" points at a neutral site, @ St Joes by "13", @ Delaware by "11" and @ Georgia State by "14". Both teams have strong points with big time players with Givens for the Dragons and Burgess for the Rams. Still this is a game that has been dominated by VCU, as they are 5-1 SU in their last "6" on the road, 5-1 SU in their last "7" on the road at Drexel, while the Dragons are 2-9 in their last "11" vs VCU. We just think that VCU expects to win, and Drexel has trouble scoring points (295th in the nation) , and the Rams believe after last year' Final Four run that they belong on the top of the pack! We go with the proven winner only laying one point here to win and cover the small number on the road. Power rated @ - 3.77 points here
Vegas Experts
Steelers at Broncos
Play: Under
We just don't see many points being scored here. The Steelers went Under in their last six regular season games. The Broncos offense, QB Tim Tebow in particular, is really struggling right now. This is a bad matchup for Denver's run-first offense, going against the top ranked defense in both yards allowed and scoring. Pittsburgh has held five of its previous six opponents to nine points or fewer. Denver's defense isn't too shabby, holding five of their previous eight opponents to 13 pts or fewer. After yesterday's two Overs, look for the Under to cash here.
Dave Price
1 Unit Sacramento Kings +6
The Kings have won 10 of their last 14 at home against the Magic and 2 of those losses came by 4 points or less. The Magic are a poor 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games overall, 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. We'll take the points as Sacramento takes Orlando down to the wire.
Jeff Alexander
Memphis Grizzlies +7½
This isn't a good spot for a fatigued Lakers team against a youthful, athletic Memphis squad. In fact, home favorites that have played 9 games or more in 14 days, provided they are winning between 51% and 60% of their games and are up against a team with a losing record, are just 7-28 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 8.2 points but have only won by an average of 1.0 point. Bet the Grizzlies.
Jack Jones
Milwaukee Bucks +7½
The Phoenix Suns are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers Sunday. They were forced to set this line a little too high after Phoenix won in a blowout over Portland in their last game on Friday with a 102-77 win over the Portland Trail Blazers. But Portland was coming off a huge win over the Lakers the night before, and they simply didn't show up for the Suns.
The Suns are still just 3-4 this season with home losses to New Orleans and Philadelphia on their resume. Another reason the Bucks are getting so many points tonight is because they have lost four straight games. However, all four of those games were on the road, and three of the four losses came by six points or less. If Milwaukee goes down again tonight, it won't be by eight points or more.
The Bucks are a very profitable 31-15 ATS in their last 46 games when playing on back-to-back days. Milwaukee is also a sensational 55-29 ATS in their last 84 games after four or more consecutive losses. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Suns are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet Milwaukee Sunday.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cleveland +10½ over PORTLAND
The power in the NBA used to be all West conference but there is a shift taking place and one could argue that the East is more powerful now. So when a team like the Trail Blazers are favored by double digits over an underrated East conference club, it's time to take a close look. Portland is coming off a 25-point loss at Phoenix and it really doesn't get much uglier than that. LaMarcus Aldridge had 14 points in that game and no other starter had more than nine. Aldridge should make his first All-Star team but he doesn't have much help. Marcus Camby was running on fumes last season and Kurt Thomas and Craig Smith are the only other frontcourt bodies. Though they should win more than they lose the Blazers are a one-and-done outfit that is not going to blow out many teams this year. The Blazers have the Clippers on deck Tuesday and that's a foe every team wannts a chance at this year with all the hype surrounding them. Meanwhile, the Cav's are quietly 4-3. They've won three of four and in a recent loss in Indiana they took the Pacers to OT. The Cav's play strong defense. Although, they're likely going to lose a lot of games, the Cavaliers they have enough players now to give themselves a chance on most nights and this looks like one of those nights. Play: Cleveland +10½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Andy Iskoe
Falcons +3
After not having back to back winning season for the first 40+ seasons of franchise history, Atlanta has posted a winning record for a fourth straight season, making the playoffs for the third time in this period and for the first time ever in back to back seasons.
By defeating Dallas last Sunday night the Giants return to the playoffs after a 2 season absence which followed 4 straight seasons of postseason play. These teams last met in 2009 with the Giants prevailing at home, 34-31, but failed to cover as 7 point chalk. The Giants played a pair of solid games to make the Playoffs but it must be noted that the teams they defeated, Dallas and the Jets, did not make the playoffs.
The Giants finished 9-7 and were outscored on the season. Their best win came in mid season at New England. But they only faced four teams that made the playoffs, losing to San Francisco, Green Bay and New Orleans. Atlanta also lost at home to Green Bay and twice to New Orleans and their best win was at Detroit.
The Falcons do have the better rushing stats on both sides of the football led by Michael Turner. The Giants have the better passing game and both pass defenses are below average. Despite the statistics the Giants have an effective pass rush. The Giants’ last postseason win was their upset of New England in Super Bowl XLII. The Falcons’ last came in the 2004 playoffs
Both teams struggled when facing the league’s elite teams this season. The price is fair and suggests that these teams are fairly even and the game would be pick’em on a neutral field. Road teams have fared well in the Wild Card round in recent season, winning 3 of 4 last season and 9 of 16 since 2007 and the vast majority of these games have been priced at a FG or less. FALCONS.
Broncos +8
After gaining momentum from a 6 game winning streak, Denver lost its final 3 games of the regular season but won the AFC West via tie breakers when Oakland lost to San Diego. Denver has one of the weakest statistical profiles for a playoff team, being outscored by 5.1 points per game and outgained by 41 yards per game.
Contrast that to the Steelers – defending AFC Champions – who outgained their opponents by an average of 100 ypg and led the league in both allowing just 272 ypg and 14.2 ppg. Denver is in the playoffs for the first time in 6 seasons whereas the Steelers are seeking their third trip to the Super Bowl in the past 5 seasons and are in the playoffs for the eighth time in 11 seasons.
This is just the third time in more than 20 years that a road team is favored by a touchdown or more in a playoff game. Interestingly, New Orleans was involved in both games. The Saints upset the Rams in the 2000 Playoffs, 31-28, as 7 point home underdogs. Last season New Orleans lost 41-36 at Seattle as 10 point road favorites.
Seattle made the playoffs with a 7-9 record which was good enough to win the weak NFC West. Those Seahawks were every bit as ugly as these Broncos. It’s easy to make a case for the experienced Steelers to totally frustrate the anemic passing attack of QB Tim Tebow and his Broncos. But Denver’s defense has fared well for much of the season and Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is less than 100 percent healthy.
In last week’s win at Cleveland RB Rashard Mendenhall was injured and lost for the season. The Broncos figure to use a very heavy dose of the running game to keep this a game of as few possessions as possible and limit risk taking by the offense. As such the points loom large and may well come into play as Pittsburgh could struggle for a narrow win.
The playoffs are a whole new season and home teams enjoy an edge, even when they are not the better of the two teams. Let’s pay some homage to history. BRONCOS.
David Banks
Arkansas St / Northern Illinois Over
The Sun Belt squares off against the MAC in the 2012 GoDaddy.com Bowl when the Arkansas State Red Wolves (10-2, 10-2 ATS) and Northern Illinois Huskies renew their rivalry for the first time since 1996; kick-off from Ladd Peebles Stadium in Mobile, AL is set to go live on ESPN & ESPN3.com starting at 9:00 ET.
2010-11 was a season in which Arkansas State lost a number of closely contested contests en route to churning out a 4-8 SU campaign. Those humbling defeats built a ton of character amongst the 13 starters that returned under the watch of first year head coach Hugh Freeze, and all the Red Wolves did this season was go out and win 10 of their 12 overall games and cover the closing number a moneymaking 10 times. Though Freeze will make his new home in Oxford next season, his kids enter the programs first bowl appearance since 2005 in fine form having won each of its last nine games (7-2 ATS). Arkansas State possesses an extremely balanced offensive attack led by junior QB Ryan Aplin who threw for 3235 yards and 18 TDs and rushed for another 605 yards and nine TDs. He and WR Dwayne Frampton will look to expose a Huskies defense that gave up 31.1 PPG (#89) and an average of 239.8 passing yards per game (#78). The Red Wolves went 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS away from Jonesboro this season.
Northern Illinois has been one of the premiere programs in the MAC for the last decade. The team has gone bowling each of the last three seasons and will be in search of back-to-back postseason victories after it destroyed Fresno State 40-17 (-1.5) in last years Humanitarian Bowl. Last we saw head coach Dave Doerens squad, it fought back from a 20-0 deficit in the MAC Championship Game to pull out the last second 23-20 win that erased the memory of the tough closing moment defeat it absorbed the previous season in the conferences big game. This team is all about execution on the offensive side of the ball with senior QB Chandler Harnish posting one of the best ever seasons the MAC has ever seen. He completed 62.9 percent of his passes for 2942 yards and sported a fantastic TD/INT ratio of 26/5. On top of that, he gouged opposing defenses with his legs rushing for a team best 1382 yards and 11 more scores. Northern split its six games played away from DeKalb (2-4 ATS).
These teams played every year from 1990-1996 with Northern Illinois winning six of the seven meetings while posting a 4-2-1 mark against the closing number. Arkansas State stands just 3-9 SU but 7-4-1 ATS in its L/12 non-conference battles and 6-1 ATS its L/7 when favored, but checks in just 1-5 ATS the L/6 times it was favored up to three points. The Huskies have failed to cover each of their L/5 as neutral site underdogs, but have gone a profitable 22-10 SU & 17-13-2 ATS their L/32 on field turf. The over has cashed in five of their L/6 non MAC tussles.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Wisconsin/ Michigan Over 113: I realize that the last 5 in this series have been very low scoring (108.8 ppg), but I feel this time it will be different. The Badgers are know for their defense, but they really have to step it up on the offense end if their are going to compete in the Big 100 this year. They will find that they can't win games just on their defense. Overall they have still put up 67.2 ppg and will be facing a Michigan team that has allowed 62.8 ppg on the year. Michigan has allowed 56.2 ppg at home, but 59.6 in their last 5 lined home games. Michigan has been solid on offense as they have put up 71.7 ppg and they also shoot the ball very well as they have hit 48.7% of their shots. Wisconsin does have that great defense, but Michigan does shoot well and they are at home were they should have the pace more to their liking, which is a bit of an uptempo pace, plus we also note that Wisconsin did have problems with the Iowa offense a couple of games ago, allowing 72 points in that game. I feel the badgers will break out of their offensive slump in this one and that will help this game put up 120+ points. KEY TREND--- WISCONSIN is 10-2 OVER versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. Average points scored in this situation is 134.3 ppg.
2 UNIT PLAY
Depaul + 8 over VILLANOVA: The Blue Demons have bee a surprise this year and they have won 6 of their last 7, While the Cats are struggling having Lost 3 in a row. Only only of the last 7 in this series has been decided by more than 8 points. I liook for Depaul to keep it close.
1 UNIT PLAY
Iona/ Marist Under 165: The Gaels are 5th in the nation in scoring (84.9 ppg), but still only 1 of their last 8 games have seen more than 158 points scored in a game. 2 of Marist's last 7 have put up more than this total and 1 was due to overtime. Ioan's last 5 have averaged just 147.8 ppg, while Marist's last 5 have put up 158.2, but again 1 of those was an OT game and 35 of the 175 points in that one were scored in the extra period. I just don't see this one eclipsing 160 points, let alone 165.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Atlanta +3 over NY GIANTS: Google News Play. Giants QB Manning did have a good year and a great season finale vs Dallas, but he still had a bad December (76.5 passer rating) and he is 0-2 at home in the post season (0 TD, 5 INT, 31.8 passer rating). Matt Ryan, on the other hand, has been on fire since the start of November, completing 62% of his passes for 2,494 yards (277 YPG), 20 TD and just 4 INT.Both teams have excellent wide receivers, but Atlanta (115 rush YPG) has a decisive edge over New York (89 rush YPG, last in NFL) in the running game. Falcons RB Michael Turner, who has been battling a groin injury, finally looks healthy and is ready to take on a Giants defense that is 19th vs the ruin (121.2 ypg). With turner healthy it makes the Falcons two-dimensional, while the Giants lack of a run game makes them very predictable. Despite this game being played in NY, Atlanta brings the more balanced offense and the better defense into this one and they should walk out with the outright win. KEY TREND--- Tom Coughlin is 5-16 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game as the coach of Giants.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Valpo/ Wright State Over 129: Wright State is not known for it's higher scoring games as their games this year have averaged just 120.8 ppg, but I feel that their opponent today will look to speed the game up a bit. The Crusaders really don't like the slow down game and they come in averaging 73.4 ppg on a rock solid 47.5% shooting, plus they have scored 71.8 ppg on 46% shooting on the road. The Wright State offense is not nearly as good as they have averaged just 57.8 ppg on the road, but today they should find the scoring a bit easier vs a Valpo squad that has allowed 74.8 ppg on 47.1 shooting overall, including allowing 75.8 ppg on 46.4% shooting on the road. The raiders though have averaged 68 ppg in their last 5 games, so their offense is coming around a bit. Wright State's last 5 games are not far off from this total (128 ppg), while Valpo's last 5 have averaged 145 ppg, while their road games have averaged 147.6 ppg. I feel the Wright state offense will have a good game in this one, while Valpo will certainly get their points. This one could hit 140. KEY TRENDS--- VALPARAISO is 19-5 OVER versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997, while WRIGHT ST is 16-6 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Nelly
Cleveland + over Portland
The Cavaliers are 4-3 this season and 5-2 ATS as this appears to be an improved team. The wins have not come against high quality competition but through seven games Cleveland has only once lost by more than eight points. Portland is 5-2 on the season but this has been an inconsistent team. In the last game the Trailblazers lost by 25 at Phoenix and while this is a team with wins over the Lakers, Thunder, Nuggets, and 76ers they may be in a bit of a flat spot after a couple of big games in a row. With a huge double-digit spread the young and improving Cavaliers can hang around in this match-up.