Matt Rivers
Is there any doubt which way I am going with the total of today's Steelers-Broncos playoff game?
They could hang a total of 28-points on this game and I still would look for it to stay under!
Here you have a pair of compromised quarterbacks - Roethlisberger with his high ankle sprain, and Tebow with his limited ability - and a pair of defenses that know how to make life miserable on those quarterbacks, especially Pittsburgh's!
The Steelers have played six straight unders, and with Roethlisberger under center have only been able to score 14, 3, and 13-points in games against the Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers.
On the flip side, the Broncos have played under the posted price in five of their last eight games, and have been held to 17-points or less in six of those eight games. Last week against a good Kansas City defense, Tebow and company could only hang three-points on the scoreboard.
Pittsburgh's defense is better than Kansas City's, so don't expect Denver to be finding paydirt too often at home today.
This one has the makings of about 24-total points scored, so go under the total as your Sunday free play between the Steelers and the Broncos.
5♦ UNDER
Derek Mancini
For today's Free Play, I'm looking at one of the fishier lines on the board as Detroit hosts Butler. Given the name recognition and their 4-game win streak, you have to wonder what the Bulldogs are doing as underdogs here? Moreover, when you look at Detroit, a team that's lost 2 of its L3, including an outright upset loss to Valparaiso at home in their one, it makes even less sense. That is unless the oddsmakers are signaling a motivated bounce back effort by the Titans in front of the home fans today - which is exactly what I expect will happen.
So why Detroit? First off, the Titans have the size to match up with Andrew Smith and the Bulldogs frontline. 6'10 Eli Holman is coming off one of his better games this season, and coupled with 6'10 shot-blocker extraordinaire LaMarcus Lowe (45 blocks), Detroit has the match ups necessary to beat the Bulldogs. We haven't even gotten to the backcourt, where the Titans enjoy a strong edge with Simon and McCallum. I like Nored, but Butler's backcourt of Stigall (who's struggling with his shot) and the incredibly inconsistent Hopkins is at a major disadvantage here.
Bottom line, the public may think this is a bargain price on a team that's won 4 straight, but I see things very differently. I see a Butler team ripe for a letdown in a very tough match up against a team coming off a tough home loss and looking for redemption. Line signals a good effort by the Titans, and big part of their success will be their ability to match up with Butler in the frontcourt. Lay it with Detroit over Butler Sunday.
3♦ DETROIT
Larry Ness
Oregon +2.5
California visits Eugene to face Oregon in a late Sunday afternoon game on the West Coast. California has opened 12-4 but after winning two home games to open Pac-12 play, lost Thursday night 92-85 in Corvallis to Oregon State. Oregon lost its season-opener at Vanderbilt but then won 10 of its next 12 games, giving reason to believe the team's win in the CBI tourney last year (after a 16-17 regular season) was no fluke. The Ducks are 11-4 overall and 2-1 in league play, after a 78-67 home win against Stanford on Thursday. The CBI was blessing for the Ducks last year, in Dana Altman's first season in Eugene. Despite the team's 16-17 record, the Ducks not only got an invite to play in the postseason but they were able to win their way into that tourney's best-of-three championship series without leaving Matthew Knight Arena. Three home wins got them to the best two-of-three finals and after losing Game 1 at Creighton, the Ducks were home for the next two games, winning 71-58 and 71-69 (America is a GREAT country!). Catron (15.9-6.7) was the MVP of that poytseason tourney but he's gone, as are guards Stowbridge and Armstead (combined 18.0 PPG). However, the 6-8 Singler (12.8-5.8) and guard Sim (12.5-2.8-2.8) both returned. Freshman guard Jabari Brown waa expected to be the team's star TY but he left school after two games. However, former Minnesota guard Devoe Joseph became eligible nine games ago and now leads the team in scoring (15.2) while adding 3.4 RPG and 2.9 APG. Throw in La Tech transfer the 6-7 Ashaolu (8.1-5.1) plus the 6-11 Woods (6.7-3.9), a former Wake player with prior off-the-court issues, and Altman has enough to work with. Cal features a pair of solid guards in Gutierrez (14.7-5.0-4.2) and Cobbs (12.8-4.6 APG) plus 6-6 swingman Crabbe (15.9-5.7) and the 6-8 Kamp (9.1-5.2) are also back. Two freshman, the 6-8 Solomon (6.4-6.3) and the 6-9 Kravish (6.2-5.8) have both shown enough to get regular playing time, as well. This marks the 133rd meeting between these two teams, with the Golden Bears dominating lately by winning the last SEVEN contests. The Ducks are 9-1 at home (lost to only an excellent 14-1 and 21st-ranked Virginia team) and the not so-Golden Bears are 0-3 in true road games this year. Take the home team.
Andre Gomes
Los Angeles Lakers -7
Memphis has been having clear offensive problems without Zach Randolph, even though they were able to score 113 points against Sacramento, on a bad spot for the Kings and against a team who has a horrible transition and interior defense, which resulted in 21 fast break points and 72 points in the paint. But after that, the team could only score 90 and 85 points in their following two games against two teams who are far from being top defensive teams: Minnesota and Utah. They are still trying a lot of shots at the rim: 34.1% volume with 64% FG. Gasol has been playing very well, but Memphis has no depth on the frontcourt and tonight against Bynum and Pau, they are headed to a very tough night! Memphis needs to create turnovers, transition plays and off rebounds in order to be competitive! Memphis is indeed #1 in the league in offreb plays with 1.29 PPP, the problems is that LAL are #1 in defending offreb chances with just 0.80 PPP allowed! The Lakers are #10 in defending transition plays with 1.11 PPP, so the Lakers defense will have some edge over the Grizzlies offense tonight!
On the other side, the Lakers are coming from a sloppy game against the Warriors on a bad spot for them, as they had played at Portland in the night before. They have been dominating the boards and so, they will have an immediate edge over Memphis in here, especially now that they are playing without ZBO. The Lakers will also have an edge on the paint as well, as Memphis is coming from a game where they allowed 20-25 FG at the rim at Utah! The Lakers is even the #1 offense on post up plays with 1.06 PPP and they will face a team who doesn't defend well this kind of plays, as Memphis is #25 with 0.88 PPP allowed. Kobe may indeed suffer a lot of pressure from Memphis' wing defenders, but with such a big edge on the inside, I expect the Lakers to have a gameplan directed to the inside. I believe the mismatches in here are big enough for me to project the Lakers to be favorites by 10 points on this contest and therefore, looking at the current line, I'll take the Lakers tonight.
NHL Predictions
Flyers / Senators Over 5.5
These two teams are on the second of a home and home, with yesterday’s game in Philadelphia. The Flyers won 3-2 late in overtime. Although the game fell under the total I thought it could have easily been a lot higher of a score. There were some posts hit and some nice saves that ultimately kept that game under the total. The Sens and Flyers combined for 76 shots yesterday. Take note that the Flyers are averaging 3.41 goals per game, which is good for 2nd in the NHL. The Senators are scoring 2.98 goals per game, which is 8th in the NHL. Also take note that both teams are averaging 3 goals per game over their last 5. The Sens are giving up 3.27 goals per game at home, while scoring a little above their season average at 3.05 per game at home. I’m not sure which goalies we will see in net, but it won’t affect my pick either way. After watching yesterday’s game I think we have value here on the OVER. I’ll take the OVER risking 1.25 units to win 1 unit.
Red Dog Sports
Maryland at NC State
Play: Maryland +11
This game is the conference opener for both teams. Each team changed coaches last year. Maryland's Gary Williams retired after a long career and even won a national title with the Terps. They did lose Jordan Williams to the NBA and started the year with some bad losses to Alabama, Iona and Illinois.
Maryland has since added Alex Len and P'Shon Howard to their lineup. Len is 7'1" and has averaged 14 points in three games on 79% FG shooting. Terrell Stoglin averages an impressive 21 points per game for the road team and Sean Mosley is at 10 ppg. Maryland is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Wolfpack.
NC State has underachieved the last few years under Sidney Lowe. They did change coaches but are just 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 at home. They did blow out Northeastern, Delaware State and Western Carolina but played close games at home vs. NCCU (won by 5), beat Princeton by 2, UNC Asheville by 9 and defeated the Campbell Camels by 6.
They did lose to #1 Syracuse by 16 and Indiana by 11 at home. Here are the NC State scorers, as they have five guys in that 12 ppg range.
Leslie 13
Brown 12.5
Wood 12.5
Williams 12.4
Howell 12.2
NC State won their ACC conference opener last year by 21 over Wake Forest but the other home wins were by 8 over Clemson, 5 vs. Georgia Tech and by 2 over Miami.
I think this game will be close and like the underdog +11 which is available at many books.
Maryland +11
Andrew Lange
Maryland at NC State
Play: Maryland +11
I think when it is all said and done, the final season results of both Maryland and NC State won't be too dissimilar. The Wolfpack probably have a bit more talent but with the Terps adding a few pieces over the last few weeks, the difference isn't 11 points. Another part of my intrigue towards the underdog is that NC State cannot be trusted in the price range against comparable competition. I've watched this team multiple times this season and during the regular flow of the game, they look extremely good. But it all goes haywire when possessions start to mean something or they need a defensive stop. Maryland PG Pe'Shone Howard (broken foot) and center Alex Lin (eligibility) should be fairly settled in the rotation having played four and three games respectively. As a result, the Terps now have eight players who have averaged over 20 minutes per game of playing time. I don't think the betting markets have adjusted enough for Maryland's small but impactful transformation. Take the underdog.