Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday November, 11

DUNKEL INDEX

Miami at Memphis
The Heat look to take advantage of a Memphis team that is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 Sunday games. Miami is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2)

Game 501-502: Orlando at Brooklyn (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 110.226; Brooklyn 115.745
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5 1/2; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 7 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+7 1/2); Under

Game 503-504: Atlanta at LA Clippers (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 122.683; LA Clippers 125.235
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 2 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 6 1/2; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+6 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: Miami at Memphis (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 128.690; Memphis 122.832
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 6; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2); Over

Game 507-508: Cleveland at Oklahoma City (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 111.615; Oklahoma City 128.830
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 17; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9 1/2; 203
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-9 1/2); Under

Game 509-510: Sacramento at LA Lakers (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 113.241; LA Lakers 120.374
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 7; 195
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 9; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+9); Over

NCAAB

Syracuse vs. San Diego State
The Aztecs look to take advantage of a Syracuse team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 neutral site games. San Diego State is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (+2)

Game 511-512: Marshall at Villanova (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 62.066; Villanova 64.538
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 2 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Villanova by 4 1/2; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+4 1/2); Over

Game 513-514: Hofstra at Purdue (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hofstra 47.204; Purdue 70.340
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 23
Vegas Line: Purdue by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-16 1/2)

Game 515-516: TX-San Antonio at Old Dominion (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 47.591; Old Dominion 56.316
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 9
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TX-San Antonio (+9 1/2)

Game 517-518: UC-Riverside at Illinois-Chicago (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Riverside 41.364; Illinois-Chicago 53.873
Dunkel Line: Illinois-Chicago by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois-Chicago by 11
Dunkel Pick: Illinois-Chicago (-11)

Game 519-520: Florida International at Boston College (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 44.189; Boston College 59.392
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 15
Vegas Line: Boston College by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (-13 1/2)

Game 521-522: Florida Atlantic at North Carolina (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 49.494; North Carolina 70.126
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 20 1/2; 147
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 22; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+22); Over

Game 523-524: UL-Monroe at Oklahoma (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 41.683; Oklahoma 66.315
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 24 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 23
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-23)

Game 525-526: Duquesne at Georgetown (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duquesne 56.670; Georgetown 70.002
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 13 1/2; 134
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 15; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duquesne (+15); Over

Game 527-528: WI-Milwaukee at South Carolina (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 53.225; South Carolina 60.283
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 7; 119
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 5; 125 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-5); Under

Game 529-530: Loyola-Marymount at SMU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Marymount 57.540; SMU 57.340
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: SMU by 2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Marymount (+2)

Game 531-532: New Mexico State at Oregon State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 57.750; Oregon State 68.085
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 10 1/2; 152
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 8 1/2; 158 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-8 1/2); Under

Game 537-538: Tennessee-Martin at Cincinnati (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 40.438; Cincinnati 65.005
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 24 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 26 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee-Martin (+26 1/2)

Game 539-540: Eastern Michigan at Jacksonville State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 46.137; Jacksonville State 55.868
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville State by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Jacksonville State by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville State (-8 1/2)

Game 541-542: Manhattan at Louisville (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 53.223; Louisville 76.803
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 23 1/2
Vegas Line: Louisville by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-18 1/2)

Game 543-544: Oakland at UL-Lafayette (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 56.075; UL-Lafayette 52.031
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 4
Vegas Line: Oakland by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-2 1/2)

Game 545-546: Loyola-MD at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 56.250; Washington 71.560
Dunkel Line: Washington by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-7 1/2)

Game 547-548: Montana State at Seattle (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 44.416; Seattle 57.677
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle by 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-9)

Game 549-550: Syracuse vs. San Diego State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 70.115; San Diego State 69.977
Dunkel Line: Even; 133
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 2; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (+2); Over

Game 555-556: Colgate at Marquette (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colgate 39.483; Marquette 73.021
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 33 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Marquette by 27; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marquette (-27); Under

Ben BurnsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland vs. Baltimore
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At first glance, this total may look a little high. However. I feel it could actually be even higher.
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The Raiders have seen each of their last three games top the total. Most recently, they were involved in a 42-32 shootout vs. the Bucs. They're giving up an average of 28.6 points per game.
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Note that the Raiders throw the ball a whopping 41.4 times per game, second most in the AFC and fourth most in the league. Their 21.4 rushing attempts per game is the third lowest in the NFL.
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Baltimore averages 32.2 points per game at home, averaging 421.7 yards here. The vaunted Raven defense is giving up a high 389 yards per game here, however. Balltimore home games are averaging 52.2 points, three of four exceeding the total.
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All things considered, if the line stays below 47 (looks like it could dip below 46) I'd say the 'over' is worth a look.

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Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: Atlanta FalconsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New Orleans beat the Eagles on Monday Night Football, 28-13, but are still an underachieving 3-5 this season and host undefeated Atlanta (8-0), the team that they trail by 5 games in the NFC South division race. The Saints have played a weak schedule, with only 2 of their first 8 opponents owning winning records, Green Bay (6-3) and Denver (5-3). New Orleans lost both games against those winning teams while losing by a combined score of 62 to 41 points. While the Saints swept this division series 2-0 last year, expect the Falcons to get their revenge as we find them at 11-3 ATS as favorites seeking revenge behind Head Coach Mike Smith. With New Orleans allowing 28.6 points per game and 472 yards per game, lay the points with the Falcons knowing they're 7-0 ATS against teams with a losing record after Week #8 the last 3 seasons.

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San Diego vs. Tampa Bay
Pick:San Diego
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The Chargers are 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS and 2-2 on the road. They are coming off a solid 31-13 victory at home vs. the lowly Chiefs breaking a 3 game losing streak. The 3 losses included a 31-24 hard fought defeat at NO, a 35-24 loss at tough Denver where the team blew a 24 point half time lead and a slim 7-6 loss at Cleveland.
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The Denver loss began talk of Norv Turner losing his job, a tight loss at Cleveland kept the rumours swirling while the KC victory has kept things in check. QB Phillip Rivers has said, "you play for a lot of things, right now we are playing for our coach". I expect the team to be focused and motivated Sunday. Rivers was lights out against KC becoming only the 6th QB in history to complete 90% or more of his passes in a game. Of note, the Chargers are 8-2 when Rivers throws less than 2 INTs. Rivers is the ultimate competitor and rest assured he is well aware of that stat.
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The Bucs are 4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS and 2-2 at home. Rookie RB Doug Martin was the talk of the NFL last week with a massive 251 yards rushing and 4 TDs in a 42-32 victory at Oakland. The young back now has an excellent 794 rushing yards on the season.The team has won 3 of 4 games including 2 straight including an impressive 36-17 victory at Minnesota.
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4th year QB Josh Freeman has really come into his own with 2,047 yards passing, 16 TDs and an excellent 95.1 QB rating after an off season last year with a 74.6 QB rating. The Bucs have the leagues best defense against the run allowing 77.3 YPG however they have the league's worst pass defense giving up 321.1 passing YPG. This plays right into the gunslinger Rivers hands who would love to throw 40 passes a game while the run game has been fairly non existent all season with Ryan Mathews leading the charge with 421 yards and 1 TD.
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The Chargers have owned the Bucs with a record of 8-1 all time in this matchup with the Chargers 5-0 at TBay! These two teams last met in 2008 with Rivers going off for 287 yards and 4 TDs in a 41-24 route.
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The Chargers are underdogs in this game while I suspect they will win straight up. Take the Chargers plus the points for a cushion and take this game to the bank.

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Buffalo vs. New England
Pick: Buffalo
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Sea legs et al, the Patriots return from London to host AFC East rival Bills with New England looking to retain its one game lead atop the perch in the division. Wanting to and doing so are often different paths traveled by teams who are up against it, like the Pats are today. For openers, teams returning to the states following a scrum across the ocean in England have been frightful. In another PLAYBOOK exclusive, these teams are 6-4 SU and 3-6-1 ATS. Worse, they are 1-6-1 ATS in division games and 0-3 ATS as favorites. The Bills took it on the chin in a 52-28 home loss to the Patriots in Week Four this season, a game in which Buffalo blew a 21-7 lead in the 3Q. It marked the most points ever surrendered by Chan Gailey in his NFL head-coaching career. Given New England’s 0-6 ATS record as home favorites of more than 5 points in games against avenging division foes, and its 4-18 ATS mark in games when favored by 11 or more points, the points become the play here today. The rocking and rolling at Foxboro will likely be the unsteady footing of its players and not its fans. We recommend a 1-unit play on Buffalo.

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Oakland vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
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Though the Ravens have done little recently to justify laying more than one score, I do like them at home this week against the poor travelling Raiders. You may have read previously about Oakland's struggles in early East Coast start times, which comissioner Roger Goodell has vowed to decrease for West Coast teams. It can't happe soon enough for the Silver and Black, who are a horrid 2-14 straight up in the Eastern Time Zone dating back to 2007. This includes an outright 35-13 loss in Week 2 to the Miami Dolphins. They have not won a game out East since the 2009 season. Therefore, it should not be a surprise to find the Raiders 3-13 ATS their last 16 visits to AFC North stadiums.
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Baltimore enjoys a tremendous home field edge where they have won 14 in a row. This will be their first game at M&T Bank Stadium in nearly a month. They will be fired up to play in front of the home crowd. I look for them to dominate the line of scrimmage in this matchup, particularly without running back Darren McFadden. Last week, the Raiders were outgained 278-22 in rushing yardage by Tampa Bay, who was dominating early before allowing a brief comeback. The Oakland defense is allowing over 28 PPG and has the second fewest sacks in the league. Ravens QB Joe Flacco should have a big day.

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Oakland vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
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The Raiders might be able to keep up for a while, but I think it's only a matter of time before the Ravens put this game away for good.
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Oakland is in tough coming off a 42-32 home loss to the Bucs last week. The Raiders defense has been exposed time and time again this season, and now has to face a Ravens offense that is in line for a breakout performance after being held down in the last couple of games.
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Note that Oakland has already given up at least 31 points on four different occasions this season - that represents half of their games.
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Offensively, the Raiders will be relying on Carson Palmer's arm in this one after losing RB Darren McFadden for an indefinite period of time due to a leg injury. While we may see some quick strikes from the Oakland offense, there's a good chance we'll also see some quick three-and-outs, giving the Ravens excellent field position. With a short field, this Baltimore offense can be lethal.
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Baltimore had dropped the cash in five straight games prior to last week's 10-point win over the Browns. Prior to that, the Ravens had won back-to-back games ATS to start the season.
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Here I look for them to get a much-needed follow-up victory at home, knowing that this is a key one with the Steelers (one game back of the Ravens in the AFC North) hosting the awful Chiefs on Monday night. The Raiders are a banged-up squad right now, and will have a tough time keeping pace on Sunday afternoon.

Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee vs. Miami
Pick: Tennessee
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The Dolphins haven’t exactly been beating up on quality foes. Their four wins this season have come against the Raiders, Bengals, Rams and Jets. Two of those four wins came by four points or less, not enough to cover this pointspread. In the two games where Miami has been favored, they’ve won by three and lost by three, failing to cover the number each time. The Dolphins have been outgained by nearly 550 yards over the last three weeks. And, long term, simply betting the underdog in every Dolphins game has produced a remarkable 36-13 ATS streak, including a 6-1 ATS run entering Sunday’s game.
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If there’s one game all year that we can expect the Titans to show up for, it’s this one. Tennessee was thoroughly embarrassed and humiliated on their home field last Sunday; a game that was over by the end of the first quarter. Owner Bud Adams was not amused: “In my 50 years of owning an NFL franchise, I am at a loss to recall a regular-season home game that was such a disappointment for myself and fans of the Titans. We were grossly outcoached and outplayed from start to finish." With the better option (Jake Locker) back behind center this week, look for an inspired performance from this ‘live’ road underdog. Take the Titans.

Matt Fargo
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N.Y. Giants vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati
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We played the Bengals as home underdogs last week against the Broncos and despite outgaining Denver, Cincinnati lost. The Bengals were one of the four home underdogs that failed to cover last week and the public cleaned up because of it. There are six home underdogs this week and I do not expect a repeat of the debacle from last week. This is a huge game for the Bengals as there are eight teams within two games of each other in the AFC fighting for two Wild Card spots and a loss here could be devastating.
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The Giants had won four straight games prior to their loss last week at home against the Steelers. While it took a Pittsburgh touchdown with four minutes left to secure the win, New York was outplayed the entire game as it was outgained by 167 total yards, had nine fewer first downs and lost the time of possession by over 10 minutes. It was the third straight game the Giants have been outgained as their defense has been a big problem, now ranked 25th in the league overall.
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This is the third straight home game for Cincinnati and it comes with a very interesting dynamic. The Bengals have dropped the first two games of this three-game homestand and it is very rare for teams to lose all three games. Since 1985 there have been 179 teams that have played a three-game homestand and only 10 times have they dropped all three of those games. 17 times teams have lost the first two games and gone on to win with the only exception being the 2008 Lions that went 0-16 that year.
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Cincinnati is ranked 17th in total offense and 20th in total defense so they have been a middle of the pack team and a lot of that is due to a couple games where either the offense or the defense played very poor. Cincinnati has been very consistent for the most part and the most frustrating part during the current four-game losing streak is that they won the yardage battle in three of those games. On the season Cincinnati has a -1.9 ypg margin while the Giants have a -9.4 ypg margin.
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The Giants are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games after getting outgained by 150 or more total yards in their previous game while going 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. The Bengals fall into a solid contrarian situation as we play against road favorites in the second half of the season that are averaging 370 or more ypg on offense against teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg on defense. This situation is 58-27 ATS (68.2 percent) since 1983.

Jimmy Boyd
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Detroit Lions -2.5
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Detroit and Minnesota are headed in different directions, and Detroit is the team on the upswing. The Lions have won three of their last four games since winning just one of their first four, and they are 4-0 against the spread during this stretch.
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The Vikings have lost three of their last four both straight up and against the spread since winning four of their first five.
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The Lions have won three of the last four meetings in the series. Overall, the Vikings have been a poor investment against NFC North foes at 3-8-1 against the spread in their last 12 games against them.
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The numbers suggest Detroit is the superior team on both sides of the football. The Lions rank second in the NFL in total offense with 410.9 yards per game while the Vikings rank 22nd with 334.0 yards per game.
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The Lions rank seventh in total defense with 320.5 yards allowed per game while the Vikings rank 11th with 338.4 yards allowed per contest.
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The fact the Lions enter off a 31-14 victory in Jacksonville as a six-point favorite is significant because they are on a 14-6-1 against the spread run following a game in which they covered.
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The Vikings are just 2-6-1 against the spread in their last nine home games.
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I like the Lions regardless, but it works even more in our favor if Percy Harvin isn’t able to go. He is currently doubtful with an ankle injury. Harvin is Minnesota's leading receiver and one of the top playmakers in the league.
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The Vikings were fortunate to win the season's first meeting as they were outgained 341-227 in that contest. Look for the Lions to have their revenge. Lay the points.

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New Orleans Saints +2.5
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Look for the Saints to hand Atlanta its first loss of the season. New Orleans is 3-0 in the last 3, 6-1 in the last 7 and 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in the series. The Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 in the Superdome. They are even 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games versus poor defensive teams like Atlanta that allow 350 yards or more per game and 6-0 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams that average 350 yards or more per game. I don't believe Atlanta will be able to come up with enough stops against one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Take New Orleans.

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Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Denver Broncos
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Peyton Manning is having a career year. The 4-time MVP has a 69.5% CR, 2404 YP, 20 TDs, and just 6 INTs. He has synced with two receivers in Thomas and Decker (1339 YR and 11 TDs combined). The ground attack of Willis McGahee (620 YR and 4 TDs) has balanced off the offense quite nicely. The team has averaged 31.6 PPG over their L5 games and have outscored foes 100-37 the L10 quarters. WR, Decker has scored all 7 of his TDs in the L5 outings. This team has covered 3 straight, including their 2 road games at San Diego and Cincinnati. Carolina has one of the worst scoring teams in the NFL, averaging a mere 18.2 PPG (17.3 PPG at home). Cam Newton has more INTs (8) than TDs(6). The QB is the teams' top-rusher. Williams and Stewart have combined for only 482 YR on the season. The Panthers have hung in with quite a few teams but Denver is rolling right now. The Bronco's are 5-0 ATS their L5 games played in November and 7-2 ATS their L9 games played vs. teams with a losing record. The Panthers are 3-7 ATS their L10 games played in November and 2-6 ATS their L8 games played at home. Take Denver.

Steve Janus
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San Diego Chargers +3
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The Chargers were able to put an end to their three-game losing streak with a 31-13 win at home over division rival Kansas City. The Chargers are no longer the team to beat in the AFC West and many people have already written this team off. I’m not one of them. I still we have yet to see this team play their best football and November and December is typically the time of the year where they turn it on.
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If San Diego gets another performance out of Phillip Rivers like they did in their last game against the Chiefs, there’s no reason to think they can’t go on the road and beat Tampa Bay. Rivers went 18 of 20 for 22 yards and two touchdowns. He figures to have every opportunity to light up a very bad Tampa Bay secondary. While the Buccaneers are holding opponents to a league-low 77.3 ypg on the ground, they are dead last in pass defense, giving up a ridiculous 321.1 ypg. This past week they allowed Oakland’s Carson Palmer to throw for 414 yards and four touchdowns.
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The thing that so many people overlook because of San Diego’s poor start to the season, is just how good this team is playing defensively. The Chargers are giving up just 321.8 total yards/game, which is the 9th best mark in the entire NFL. So much is being made about Tampa Bay’s running game, but the Chargers are only giving up 84.0 ypg on the ground and have only allowed more than 120 yards in one game all season.
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I think a lot of people are looking at how well the Buccaneers have played over their last four games and not taking into consideration that those three wins have come against the Chiefs, Vikings and Raiders. Prior to the season the Chargers were listed as a 3-point favorite in this game. The Chargers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games vs excellent offensive teams – averaging >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season under head coach Norv Turner. Tampa Bay has also been a good team to fade at home, as they are just 8-23 ATS over their last 31 games at Raymond James Stadium.

Jack Jones
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Carolina Panthers +4.5
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There are many signs that point to Carolina being a much better team than its 2-6 record would indicate. First and foremost, it is outgaining opponents 344.9 to 343.0 on the season, which is a number more indicative of a .500 team rather than one that is 2-6.
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The Panthers have simply had some tough breaks all season. Five of their six losses have come by 6 points or less, including three by 4 points or fewer. Had they gotten a few more breaks to go their way, they could easily be a 5-3 team right now.
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Carolina has proven it isn't going to pack it in this season. It nearly beat the Bears 22-23 on the road in Week 8, but gave that game away in the fourth quarter. Then, it topped Washington on the road 21-13 last week in a dominant effort.
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The Panthers have been playing tremendous pass defense in recent weeks, which is the key to stopping Manning and the Broncos. They held Jay Cutler and the Bears to just 131 passing yards in Week 8. Last week, they limited Robert Griffin III and the Redskins to 186 passing yards. They have now given up 227 or less passing yards in four straight games.
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Denver is 1-10 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992. Carolina is 49-28 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game since 1992. The Broncos are 4-14 ATS when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) in the second half of the season since 1992. Bet the Panthers Sunday.