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Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings
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I can't help but remember last season early in the year taking the Vikings in this spot against the Lions and having a 21-3 half-time lead and losing by three for a 'push' with their 3-point over time win. Detroit is coming off a big win against Jacksonville (what a surprise) and going into a hostile environment against a club that needs a win in the worst way. The Vikings surprised the Lions in Detroit in September and know what to expect from the division rival.
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New Orleans Saints +2.5
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The Saints are starting to get it going with three wins in their last four games. They are 2-0 SU and ATS in the Superdome during this stretch, and I expect them to keep rolling. New Orleans has had Atlanta's number. It won both of last season's meetings, clubbing the Falcons 45-16 in New Orleans. The Saints have won three straight and 10 of the last 12 against their NFC South rival. Plus, they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with winning records. They have won these contests by an average of 17.2 points. The Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games overall. And, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet New Orleans.
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Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Pick: Buffalo Bills
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A pair of teams off bye weeks and the Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week. This is an AFC rivalry game so expect the Bulls to bring it and they are a big dog. They were one of only a few teams that beat the Patriots last season. New England made a trade for Aqui Talib during the bye, clearly admitting that their secondary is a major problem. They've been drafting and rotating guys in and out of the secondary the last three years and it keeps getting worse, giving up yards and big plays. The Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, so grab the big dog. Play the Bills.
SPORTS WAGERS
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Atlanta -2½ -108 over NEW ORLEANS
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Monday’s 28-13 win by the Saints over the hapless Eagles appears to have clouded the oddsmakers mind, as this short price would indicate to us. Despite the rare win, New Orleans was outgained on the night. That’s been a severe problem for the host as they are relinquishing a league worst 471 yards per game. To put that into perspective, the Bills are next highest at 418 yards per game, more than 50 yards fewer per game! To take it a step further, the Saints defense ranks 32nd in yards allowed, 32nd against the run and 29th versus the pass. That’s quite a trifecta.
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MVP candidate Matt Ryan will have his arsenal of Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez at his disposal and New Orleans cannot do anything about that. Ryan has thrown 17 TD’s against just five picks. He’s thrown for over 300 yards in half his games and on a fast track here, Ryan should have his way. Falcons also haven’t forgotten losing both contests to this struggling foe last season. Look for them to make a big statement on this day against a team they likely want to beat more than any other on its schedule this season.
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Dallas -2½ -108 over PHILADELPHIA
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Never thought that we’d feel sorry for Michael Vick. Actually, we don’t but as most that follow this game would agree, it is painful to watch Vick line up under center behind one of the most porous offensive lines you’ll ever see. The controversial quarterback was sacked seven times in Monday’s loss to the Saints and if you can imagine, it has actually gone from bad to worse as RT Todd Herremans is out for the year, meaning the Eagles are now without four of their five starting offensive linemen. Vick is playing scared because he’s been hit hard and knocked down so many times this season. It’s no wonder LeSean McCoy has had this off year without anyone to block for him. Eagles are on the verge of a major implosion and these demanding fans will waste little time in booing these guys off the field.
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Dallas lacks guidance but talent remains on both sides of the ball. Dallas has dropped three of its last four to Baltimore, the Giants and Atlanta but were in a strong position to win them all and probably should’ve went 4-0 over that span. As self-destructive as the Cowboys are, even they will joyfully take advantage of the horrible situation their hosts are in.
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N.Y. Jets +6 -105 over SEATTLE
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Opposing teams have grown accustomed to Rex Ryan’s false bravado. That could actually work to his team’s advantage here, as the Jets can concentrate on playing some football in an attempt to claw their way back into the AFC Wild Card race. The Jets have played a very tough schedule with games already against Houston, New England and Pittsburgh, not to mention blowout wins over Buffalo and Indy. They did not look a bit out of place against Pats or Texans, losing by three in OT to the former and by only six to the latter.
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While Seattle is known for its success at this venue, we’re not so sure that it isn’t more sizzle than steak. This host has had a lot go its way this year. They’ve also lost to the Rams and Lions. The Seahawks are not used to spotting points like this. They’ve been faves just four times in two years, twice to the Rams. With a popgun offense and a bit too much swagger for a mediocre club, they could be caught off guard.
SPORTS WAGERS
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TAMPA BAY -3 -108 over San Diego
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Bucs playing with a bounce in their step and considering that the enigmatic Chargers are visiting, prefer to side with the hot home side giving a few points. Tampa Bay is averaging 36 points per game over previous four. They are back home after winning consecutive road games. Rookie RB Doug Martin has exploded onto the scene, rushing for nearly 400 yards over his past two games. While San Diego’s run defense has been one of their few bright spots (perhaps skewed by the strength of opposition), it still is something that the Bolts will have to deal with rather than just focusing on the passing game. Josh Freeman has been the beneficiary of this upgraded ground game and his confidence appears to be back. Not to mention that WR Vincent Jackson will like nothing more than to stick it to his old club.
Meanwhile, the Chargers’ four wins have come against feeble group that includes Chiefs twice, Raiders and Titans. Fresh in everyone’s minds was a decent performance a week ago Thursday against the inept Chiefs. Let us not forget the clunker a week prior in a 7-6 loss at Cleveland. Crossing the country to play a 1 p.m. game against an NFC opponent will be a challenge that San Diego is unlikely to be up for. No units risked.
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Buffalo +11 -106 over NEW ENGLAND
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Something is amiss with the Patriots playing at home. At Gillette, New England has managed just three covers in past nine attempts. This season, the Pats lost here to Arizona, held off the charging Broncos and slipped by the Jets in OT. They also return home from trip overseas, off a bye and may need some time to get back into routine.
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Bills gave the Texans a scare last week and outside of Week 1 against Jets and Week 5 in San Fran, they’ve been in every game. Buffalo was thumped 52-28 in earlier meeting after jumping out to big lead. It is rare to get smoked by the same divisional team twice in a season so look for a closer one here. No units risked.
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CINCINNATI +3½ -103 over N.Y. Giants
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Are the Giants running out of gas? A couple of close wins followed by a home loss to the Steelers may be confirming the toll that winning the Super Bowl has on a club. G-Men usually best when receiving points while asking them to win by a margin continues to be a bankroll killer.
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New York continues to battle injuries and now must travel and spot points to a desperate Cincinnati club that is home for third consecutive week and that were in a position to beat Broncos last week. They just might close the deal this time. Giants much too risky giving away points. No units risked.
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CAROLINA +3½ -101 over Denver
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This one is may not be as easy as it looks. Peyton Manning not only has the ship sailing in the right direction, the waters look incredibly calm from here on out. Only the road trip to Baltimore in week 15 looks tricky. Peyton's getting the credit but the entire team has played better and the defense in particular has come through. In other words, the Broncos’ stock is through the roof.
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With the masses on them last week, Denver was fortunate to win and cover in Cincy. Take the money and run because this one is unlikely to work out as well. The Broncos are travelling on consecutive weeks while being favored in both. The Panthers are feeling better after a road win in Washington and they return home after two away. The books have made this guest a small choice again after having to pay out last week and they know the masses will be spotting the points again. They don’t give away money that easy. The “Buyer Beware” sign is lit up here. No units risked.
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MIAMI -6 -101 over Tennessee
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Some teams get off the mat fighting after a knockdown punch but after being completely manhandled by the Bears last week, we’re not sure the DNA of this Titans club is capable of doing so. The Titans have no direction and less desire. They’ve allowed 30 points or more in seven of nine games. The season can’t end soon enough for them and with a bye on deck, expect even less focus here.
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Spotting points with Miami doesn’t thrill us either with their weak résumé of wins but they come to play every week and they play hard. Dolphins rank 5th in points allowed. Ryan Tannehill should have his way with a Titans defense that has allowed two passing TD’s or more in five straight. With a 4-4 record and Buffalo on deck after this one, the Fish could be 6-4 heading into the stretch. This enemy will not get in their way. No units risked.
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Oakland +8 -110 over BALTIMORE
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Raiders are back where they are best. Losing but taking enough points to cover. Oakland has covered five of past six when taking any points at all. Since their bye, the Raiders have covered both road games and that includes a near win in Atlanta. Yes, Oakland is still sloppy and undisciplined but the Ravens aren’t instilling fear into anyone these days and are without question the most overvalued 6-2 club in some time.
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Baltimore rarely plays well in week prior to visiting Pittsburgh. They were fortunate to beat the Brownies last week after being outplayed in the final three quarters. Prior to that, they were manhandled by the Texans and despite winning, they were badly outplayed by the Cowboys. Prior to that pair they went into Kansas City and were fortunate again to beat the Chiefs, 9-6. The Ravens’ offense has stalled recently, exceeding 19 points only once in past four games and their luck could run out here. Possible upset. No units risked.
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MINNESOTA +2½ -108 over Detroit
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Lions gathering some momentum but winning in Jacksonville (everyone does) and over the visiting Seahawks (everyone does), are not exactly signature. There’s no hiding Minny QB Christian Ponder’s decline after a solid start and it won’t help that Percy Harvin could miss this one but Detroit is too sloppy and erratic to be spotting points in a divisional road game.
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With Lions stock rising and Vikes dropping it’s not the right time to step in. Vikings have lost consecutive games but they are 4-1 at home and only road win came in Detroit. Fishy pointspread raises red flags, as Lions were spotting four in Motown and are spotting 2½ here? We’re not biting. No units risked.
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St. Louis +11 -108 over SAN FRANCISCO
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Niners enjoy bullying their weak NFC West cohabitants but Rams may have had enough. With Rams improved pass rush and San Fran’s propensity for exposing Alex Smith, this double-digit spot could be a steep one. Big chalk players may be feeling a false sense of security here after both Packers and Texans covered double digits last week but both were fortunate to do so and laying this much weight in the NFL can be a dangerous proposition.
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Rams have had two weeks to prepare for this one and the low posted total of 38½ is not conducive to spotting this many points. Lastly, Niners could be thinking ahead to next Monday night’s visit from the Bears, making this spot an unfavorable one. No units risked.
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CHICAGO -1½ -109 over Houston
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The Texans have played in three road games this year. While the results have been acceptable, they were less than dominant. Those games included the Broncos back when the Broncs and Peyton Manning were acclimating and then the Packers, the team that provided their only loss. Houston’s 21-9 over the Bills last week was a flattering score to the Texans while the majority of their wins have been against some easy targets.
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The Bears only loss also came against Green Bay but they’re 4-0 at home while Houston is 3-0 on the road so something has to give. Bears can hardly let up as they have the Packers in their rear view mirror while Texans only need to deal with 2nd place Colts. If defense rules the day as it usually does, the home side is priced cheaply. No units risked.
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St Louis +11.5
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I am certain this selection will be one of those that have people scratching their heads. Why in the hell would anyone back the Rams here as they travel out to San Francisco to play the role of human sacrifice to the powerful 49ers. Well guys, trust me when I say I am not suggesting you go large here or play the Rams on the money line to pull off the outright. No way I can get my brain around that one. But, I do feel we have some legitimate value here with these points. After a very respectable start the Rams have been back peddling but I have a strong feeling Jeff Fisher will have his team focused and more than ready to rumble here with the Niner's. One thing I have noticed through the years is that teams generally bounce back with a strong effort when coming off a blow out loss as St Louis clearly is. I do think the Rams can apply enough pressure on Smith to make him toss up some mistakes. As soon as you start totally buying into Alex he does something to remind you that he is indeed Alex Smith, not Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. I'll be candid with you guys, I cannot find a single relevant trend to support my cause. I'll call it what it is, a gut feeling. This game did not make my subscribers card of primary plays but I do like them enough to cover here to post it as a free release and worth a small wager. This is a ton of points in the NFL.
Bryan Leonard
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Carolina +4.5
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If you've handicapped the NFL for any amount of time you know that the league is always in flux, the team of the week syndrome affects the Broncos here. After three straight wins Denver has now been anointed the best team in the league, regression is about to hit. Against good teams Denver beat Pittsburgh by 12, lost to Atlanta by 6, lost to Houston by 6 and lost to New England by 10. Despite their record, this Carolina squad is a pretty good team.
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Carolina has lost just once all season by more than 6 points, and that was against the Giants right after they found out four key Giants players would not be suiting up. They lost by two at Atlanta, one at Chicago and by four hosting Seattle. This team is much better than their record and is once again gaining confidence.
Dwayne Bryant
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San Diego / Tampa Bay Under 47.5
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When you initially think of these two teams facing off, you think of plenty of points being scored. Having said that, I feel this number is a bit too high. The Bucs are missing their top two offensive linemen, Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph. That will hinder their offense as they go up against the best defense they've faced this season so far. San Diego doesn't surrender a lot of points or yards, and they're one of the best in the league at stopping the run.
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On the flip side, San Diego's offense hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire. Of the 31 points they scored in their last game against KC, 14 of those points were from defensive TDs. They managed just six points in the game before that at Cleveland. This game starts at 1 pm ET, which is the equivalent of a 10 am PT start for these West Coast natives from San Diego. I expect the early start to cause some early sluggishness on the offensive side of the ball. At most, I'm expecting 43 or 44 points to be scored in this one. That's enough of an overlay to put me on the UNDER.
MTi Sports
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St Louis +12.5
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The Rams have not performed well as a big dog, but we think this is a great spot for Jeff Fisher to display his coaching ability. St Louis is off a three-game stretch against the Dolphins, Packers and Patriots (in London) and they are off their bye week. We think Fisher will have his team ready for this one and he will be able to take advantage of the fact that the 49ers are in a huge flat spot.
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San Francisco's last two games were against the Seahawks on Thursday and the Cardinals on Monday - both dominating wins over a divisional opponent. In their game vs the Cardinals, they were up 24-0 before allowing a field goal. The Niners did not allow a single rushing first down in the game and they recorded four sacks. So, their bye did not come at a good time. Now the 49ers have a Monday Night game vs the Bears next week. It would be very easy for them to overlook the Rams. San Francisco loves to play on Monday Night, but they are 0-8 ATS since 2002 the week before playing on Monday Night, failing to cover by an average of 8.6 ppg.
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In addition, San Francisco is 0-12-1 ATS vs an NFC foe when they are off a game in which they covered by at least six points and recorded at least four sacks.
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When they two met in San Francisco last season, the Rams were 2-9 and were missing many key players including starting QB Sam Bradford. The linesmakers made the Niners a 14-point favorite and they delivered with a 26-0 shutout. The win clinched the NFC West. Here the Rams have a new, quality head coach and are playing with confidence, passion and character. They should not be embarrassed again. Take this huge number.
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MTi's FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 24 St Louis 20
NFL Betting Picks
Miami Dolphins -5.5
Miami will play host to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Tennessee is just 3-6 this year and 1-3 on the road. The Dolphins are 4-4 and 2-1 at home. Tennessee has lost two straight and 4 of 6, including their 51-20 loss at home on Sunday against the Bears. In their three victories they've scored 26+ points, but in their 6 losses they've scored 20 or fewer points in all games and 14 or fewer points in 5 of the 6. That isn't good news for them heading into Miami facing a tough defense. The Dolphins dropped a 23-20 game on Sunday in Indianapolis, but had won three straight before that. The Dolphins rank 24th in the league overall defensively, but are 6th in papg at just 18.6. The Titans on the other hand are 30th overall and last at 32nd in papg at 34.2. They give up 141 yards against per game on the ground (30th) and that should be troubles going against a good running team in the Dolphins. Ryan Tannehill has shown improvement completing 22 of 38 last week for 290 yards and a TD. Take note that the Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record, 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs AFC opponents. The Titans are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs AFC opponents, and 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Losing 5 of their 6 games by 21+ points I don't see the Titans keeping this one close against a well balanced Dolphins team. I expect the Dolphins to win by a touchdown or more on Sunday - take them to cover
6-Point Teaser - Ravens -1 & Texans +7.5
Again both legs of this teaser follow the basic strategy of crossing over the biggest key numbers in the NFL - 3 and 7. The first leg is Ravens -1 who host the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders enter the game 3-5, and just 1-3 on the road. Road losses have come against Miami, Denver, and Atlanta (by an average of 18.7 points) and their lone road win was against Kansas City. Last week the Raiders hosted the Buccaneers and lost 42-32 as 1 point favorites. Baltimore comes into this one with a 6-2 record and a perfect 4-0 home record. They've won 5 of their last 6 games, with wins over New England, Cleveland twice, Kansas City and Dallas. Their lone loss over that span was a 43-13 loss in Houston. Baltimore has won 15 straight home games. Baltimore's defense is facing injuries and it is showing this year as they rank 26th overall defensively. The Raiders are 21st defensively but are giving up 4.6 more points against per game than the Ravens. Oakland's offensive is ranked better overall, but again the Ravens out score Oakland by over 3 points per game. Note that the Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Baltimore. Baltimore is the much better team and they are very good at home. I expect Baltimore to win and cover the 7 point spread (and cover this leg of the teaser for us). The next leg of the teaser is Houston +7.5 who is playing in a Prime Time showdown Sunday night with the Bears. This will be a battle of the 7-1 teams, as the Texans enter Sunday's game perfect on the road at 3-0 with their only loss coming against Green Bay at home. They've won two straight against Buffalo and Baltimore covering the spread in both contests. On the season they are 6-2 ATS. The Texans should be well rested as they haven't been on the road in over a month. Chicago is 4-0 at home, with their lone loss also coming against the Packers in Green Bay. Chicago is coming off a big defensive effort that allowed them to beat Tennessee 51-20 last week easily cover the 4.5 point spread. The Bears are 5-3 ATS this year, but they've failed to cover the spread in their last two home games winning by 1 point and 6 points. The Texans offense is ranked 12th overall while the Bears are 25th, but the Bears are just 0.1 ppg behind. Both teams have great defenses, with Houston ranking 3rd and Chicago 6th, but the Bears being 2nd in papg and the Texans 3.1 points behind in 4th. Take note that the Texans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games, and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Given the very good defenses both teams have I expect this to be a tight game. I give the QB edge to Houston, and I think we have a lot of value with them in a teaser.
6-Point Teaser - Saints +8.5 & Cowboys +7
First of all I should mention that you probably won't find Cowboys +7 on a 6 point teaser any more as the line has moved to Dallas -1.5 from +1 in most places. I would recommend making this a no bet if you didn't get that number, or you have the option of teasing Saints with one of the two teams in the teaser above. Secondly although this doesn't completely cross the key number of 7, we still have value as the line has shifted with the sharp money coming in on the Cowboys. Lets take a look at why I like Dallas here in this teaser. Both teams enter the game 3-5, with the Cowboys being 2-3 on the road and the Eagles 2-2 at home. Dallas isn't playing great football right now losing 4 of their last 5, but their losses have come against some good football teams in Atlanta, New York Giants, Chicago, and Tampa Bay. With that said the Eagles have downright been awful lately, losing 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Losses have come against New Orleans, Atlanta, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Arizona, while their win came at home vs the Giants. The Eagles are just 1-6-1 ATS this season. Philadelphia's 3 victories have come by a combined 4 points. Dallas QB Tony Romo isn't having the best season ranked 22nd in QB Rating, but Michael Vick is worse at 28th with a 77.7 QB Rating. He has been sacked 27 times, including 7 this past Monday where their offensive line looked awful. Dallas isn't a team I want to bet on right now against the spread, but I will happily take them getting 7 points in a teaser against the Eagles who have a lot of problems right now. The next leg is backing the Saints +8.5 as they host the 8-0 Falcons. Atlanta is coming off a 19-13 home win against the Cowboys on Sunday night. Although any win is a good win in the NFL, it is worth noting that the only team above .500 the Falcons have beat was Denver at home by 6 points. Now Saints aren't above .500 either, but they are on their way up winning 3 of their last 4 games. Wins have come against San Diego, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia (covering the spread in all three) with the loss coming @Denver. Despite an improvement last week, the Saints defense is still ranking 32nd in the NFL. But with that said, the Saints offense is ranked 5th and they are 8th in PPG just behind the Falcons. We also know that Brees is tough to beat at home. The Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games. When these two teams meet the underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Being a divisional game with the Saints at home and playing better right now I like this to be a tight game, and the Saints at least staying within a touchdown.
Denver Broncos -3.5
Denver heads to Carolina with a 5-3 record and 2-2 road record. The Panthers are 2-6 and just 1-3 at home. Peyton Manning has led the Broncos to 3 straight victories and they have won 4 of their last 5. Their lone loss over that span came in New England. After a 1-2 start to the season the Broncos offense seems to be clicking, and they've scored 31+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. Denver has also scored 21+ points in all 8 of their games this season. On the other hand the Panthers have scored 21+ points just 4 times this year. They are coming off a 21-13 win in Washington, but had lost 5 straight before then. The Panthers aren't far behind Denver defensively. The Broncos rank 10th in the league overall and the Panthers are sitting at 13th, and are giving up less than 1 more ppag. The big difference here comes on offense where the Broncos rank 3rd overall and the Panthers are 20th. Denver is 4th in PPG at 29.4, while the Panthers are 27th in the league with 18.6 PPG. Peyton Manning looks like he's had no time off, leading the league with a 108.6 QB Rating, throwing 20 TDs and 6 INTs while completing 69.5% of his passes. Cam Newton on the other hand is having a rough season after a great rookie year. Newton is completing 57% of his passes for 1902 yards but has just 6 TDs to 8 INTs and a 77.7 QB Rating. He also hasn't been as good on the ground with 347 yards and 4 TDs but 8 fumbles (3 lost). Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs a team with a losing record. Carolina is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. I don't see this defense being able to do much to stop Manning, and I think the Broncos win and cover on the road as they continue to roll.
Wunderdog
New York Jets at Seattle
Pick: New York Jets +6
The New York Jets had a well-timed bye week after a horrid performance at home where they were beaten badly by Miami, 30-9. In that game, players were accused of giving up. Is it all over for the Jets, at 3-5 and coming off a humiliating loss? I don't think it's over quite yet. The Jets are talking like a playoffs team and even at 3-5, they are still just two games out of the last wildcard spot. Coach Ryan hinted at some changes to exploit the Seahawks, but wouldn't fully disclose just what. One change needs to be with QB Mark Sanchez's issues with ball security as he has six fumbles and five INTs over the last five games. Let's not forget that the Jets went to Foxboro and almost beat the Patriots. So, they certainly are capable of winning here or at least playing competitive. The biggest problem for Seattle has been finding offense and the end-zone. Through nine games the Seahawks have scored 16 points or less in five of them. Those are tough numbers if you're backing nearly a TD favorite. Russell Wilson is still a rookie and has played erratically, throwing eight INTs on the season. Rex Ryan is the master of disguise, and having two weeks to scheme the defense. I think the Jets hang around in this one.
Bruce Marshall
Buffalo vs. New England
Pick: Over
Buffalo is winning the NFL fashion wars these days, as their return to their '70s-style royal blue pants with their road unis has been quite well-received. Too bad the 3-5 Bills aren't playing as good as they look, as their 0-for-the-millennium playoff streak appears as if it will continue. Meanwhile, New England's new Oregon-inspired uptempo attack had Jeff Fisher's Ram defense gasping for air when last seen in London. The leaky Buffalo rush defense (6 ypc!) will be in trouble vs. emerging Stevan Ridley (716 YR). In Bill Belichick's latest beatdown of the Bills, the Pats scored 45 in second half Sept. 30, N.E.'s 17th SU win last 18 in the series, and part of N.E.'s "over" string that extends to late in the 2009 season ("over" 34-12 last 46!). Bills also "over" 17-9 since last in the 2010 campaign.
David Chan
Miami vs. Memphis
Pick: Memphis
The Heat won 95-89 over Atlanta on Friday, but come into Memphis likely without the services of Dwayne Wade once again.
Also note that LeBron James hurt his knee in the win over the Hawks.
Chris Bosh led the charge in the win with 24 points; Ray Allen chipped in 17.
It's interesting to note though that Miami is in fact just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 as a road favorite of 3-points or less.
The Grizzlies are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, and I'm fully expecting them to defend their home court this evening.
Most recently Memphis beat Houston 93-85 led by 21 points by Rudy Gay.
Zach Randolph chipped in 15 points to go along with 14 boards.
Memphis is one of the leagues best rebounding teams as well at almost 45 per game.
Also note that the Grizz have given up an average of just 90.8 points during their win streak.
Already 2-0 ATS this season in front of the home town crowd, note that Memphis is 50-34 ATS in the same position over the last two.
I believe there are enough significant advantages working in favor of the home side to consider a second look at it in this matchup!
Scott Spreitzer
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
Prediction: Carolina Panthers
Carolina has come through for me each of the last two weeks and I believe they're the right side again. The Panthers may be just 2-6 SU, but they have lost five games by a grand total of just 18 points. They're just a handful of plays from a 6-2 or even a 7-1 SU mark. This will be a tough test for the Denver defense that I believe will be "chasing" all afternoon. While Peyton Manning gets it done against everybody, it should be noted that while Denver is 4-1 SU in their last five games, they haven't exactly faced the NFL's version of "murderer's row" to get there. Denver has beaten Oakland, San Diego, New Orleans, and Cincinnati. The Broncos also have back-to-back divisional games on deck. We'll back the Carolina Panthers plus the points for the third straight week.
Rob Vinciletti
Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers
The Panthers may not win much but they are close losers in every game. They are coming off a nice road dog win last week which sets them up in a nice system here today that plays on certain home dogs off a road dog win in non conference games vs an opponent off a win. The Broncos keep rolling along. However they are just 1-10 to the spread after scoring 30 or more in 3+ games. The Panthers are 9-0 ats in game 8 or later vs an opponent that averages 375 or more yards. Look for the Panthers to keep it close and get the Cash here today.