Dave Cokin
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Detroit Lions
Weather favors the Vikings, but that's about it. Detroit is getting warmer and unless they step into an invisible pothole, they ought to handle a Vikings team that has become one-dimensional. I'll opt for the Lions as small road chalk.
Joe Gavazzi
Atlanta Hawks +6
Clippers will be a very popular team now that they have beaten San Antonio and Portland on consecutive nights. The addition of Jamal Crawford and the emergence of Jordon make this a deeper and more complete team. Yet with Miami Heat as their next opponent, they will no doubt look past an Atlanta team considered by many to be rebuilding. A good chance for Josh Smith and PG Keague to lead the upset. Don't miss my 3* College Hoops winner today along with 6 NFL winners. NFL 6-1 last week. Get 'em all right here on Pregame.com at http://bit.ly/nuVjYP
Andre Gomes
Broncos / Panthers Under 47
I expect this game to be a surprisingly low scoring game. I know Peyton Manning is having a ridiculously good season, however he will be facing a very good defense today. Unlike what happened on Denver's last two games, where they faced the two poor pass defenses of New Orleans and Cincinnati, the Panthers are definitely improving on defense, after a very poor start of the season. They completely stopped RGIII last week and they have allowed just 16 points to Seattle, 19 points to Dallas, 23 points to Chicago and 13 points to Washington on their last four games. Not bad for a lowly team with a 2-6 record! The main reasons for the Panthers' good defensive performance are their pass rush who is working really well and a very good red zone defense, as they are #6 in the league in red zone efficiency allowed. I know Denver has a good offensive line and they are #2 in red zone efficiency, however I believe this is a letdown spot for Denver's offense, after a tough comeback win at Cincinnati last week and Carolina is certainly very motivated to play against Peyton Manning today.
The problem for the Panthers is that their offense keeps being a mess. Cam Newton is having a very disappointing sophomore season and even though he is #2 in yards per pass attempt, he is also #29 in completion percentage, #28 in QB rating and #20 in third down conversion, while posting a very poor 6/8 TD/INT ratio. The Panthers' offensive line is just average and it's expected that the Broncos' good pass rush put Newton in a lot of pressure today. Denver has been quite good in not allowing big passing plays to their opponents this season (#6 in yards per pass attempt), so I expect them to clearly limit Carolina's passing game today. The Panthers have a decent running game, but also in here Denver has a good run defense by being #6 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry with just 3.7 yards. Therefore, I expect Denver to have a good defensive game and limit the Panthers to a low offensive production today.
As I expect Carolina to not allow Peyton Manning to have another huge game and the Broncos to clearly stop the Panthers' offense, I believe the totals line is just too high for the kind of game we will have in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
San Francisco/ St Louis Under 38.5: This San Francisco defense is very tough, ranking 2nd overall, 2nd vs the pass and 2nd in scoring (12.9 ppg). They have allowed 6 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games and their two division games have scored a total of 46 points. This sdefense will not have all that hard a time of keep this struggling St Louis under wraps. The Rams are 28th in total offense and 28th in scoring offense (17.1) and even the possible return of Amendola won’t help them much vs this defense. The St Louis defense has been pretty solid, ranking 14th over (343 ypg) and 21st in points allowed (23.2 ppg) and they will be facing a Niners offense that plays rather conservative at home, averaging just 22 ppg. With their defense playing so well the Niners have gone back to more of a conservative offense and that will keep them from putting up a tone of points, while their defense will keep this popgun attack of the Rams in check. Low 30’s at best here.
4 UNIT PLAYS
Detroit -3 over MINNESOTA: A bit of payback here for the Lions, who held Minnesota to just 2 FG's and 227 yards of offense, but still lost 20-13 thanks to a punt return and Kick return for a TD by the Vikes. Now the Lions are starting to play much better and their offense is clicking as they have put up 59 points in their last 2 games. Not good news for a Minnesota team that has allowed 66 points in their last 2 games and 118 points in their last 4 games. This after just allowing just 15.8 ppg in their first 5 games. The Minnesota offense is struggling of late as they have averaged just 19.3 ppg in their last 3 games, In that stretch Christian Ponder has hit just 38 of 74 passes for 327 yards, plus he has 6 INT's in his last 4 games. The Detroit defense has played well of late as they have allowed just 314.7 ypg and 17 ppg in their last 3 games. These teams are heading in opposite directions and Detroit will win this round by at least a TD,
3 UNIT PLAYS
NEW ORLEANS +2.5 over Atlanta: New Orleans is on a roll and looking to get back in the payoff chase after a bad start. The Saints have won 10 or their last 12 games vs the Falcons and Matt Ryan is just 2-5 vs the Saints, giving the Saints a couple of more edges. New Orleans offense is clocking and have been very hard to stop all year, ranking 5th in total offense, 2nd in passing on their way to scoring 27.6 ppg. Yes Atlanta has a solid defense, but they can be run on (24th in league) and The New Orleans run game should have a good showing, which will only help their passing game even more (as if they needed it. LOL). Atlanta’s offense is very good this year, and the Saints defense is very bad, but I do feel that the Saints will score just enough to get the outright win in this one. New Orleans needs this game much more, they are playing with confidence and at home they should get a big win.
New England/ Buffalo Over 53:This one could be a fun one, especially for you Scotti. LOL The last 3 in this series has put up at least 65 points in each game and the earlier game this year saw 80 points being scored. In that game Biuffalo allowed the Pate 52 points and since then this Buffalo defense has allowed 45 to San Fran and 35 to Tennessee. Not exactly explosive offenses. Buffalo has allowed 33.8 ppg in their last 5 games and they have allowed 40.8 ppg in their last 5 meetings with the Pats. New England's offense is tops in the league, averaging 440.8 ypg and 1st in scoring at 32.8 ppg. This offense is rolling and in their last game, overseas, they hung 45 points on a much better defense (St Louis) then they will face today. The Patriots defense is 22nd overall and 28th vs the pass, plus they allow 21.2 ppg. The Buffalo offense is 27th in passing, but they should be able to crack this Pats defense for some big plays. The Bills average 22.5 ppg and if they can get to at least 21 points we will be golden, cause the Pats have scored at least 34 points vs the bills in each of the last 5 games between these two teams. I see allot of points in this one.
Giants/ Cincinnati Under 49: Both of these teams like to throw the ball all over the place, but I feel that these teams will look to run a bit more in this one. The Bengals will have to if they hope to keep that fierce Giants pass rush off of Dalton's back, plus they would like some ball control drives to keep that Giants offense on the sidelines. The Giants love to throw the ball as well and will be taking on a weak pass defense in Cincinnati, but this giants team is not all about the 4 play quick scoring drives. They like to work the ball down the field and in time consuming drives. I see both teams employing this game plan and that should eat plenty of clock and keep this game around 42 points at best.
EZ Money Picks
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: Dallas Cowboys
Don't be concerned about Romo turning over the ball in this game. The Philadelphia Eagles are just about as bad with turnovers (-9 turnover differential). Dallas has the edge defensively. The Cowboys' D is ranked 5th against the pass with 205.5 YPG allowed. This is going to be a nightmare for the Eagles' offensive line, who gave up 7 sacks to the NFL's worst defense last week. With ball security negligible, look for the team with the stronger defense to prevail.
HARRY BONDI
Oakland / Baltimore Over 47
The Raiders have become an "over" team, going up and over the last three weeks. The team allows more than 28 points per game on defense while on offense it throws the ball 41.4 times per game, second-most in the AFC. As we wrote in a recent Handicapper's Notebook, the Ravens defense is one of the most overrated units in the league and the new hurry-up offense the team has installed has put even more pressure on this aging unit that is allowing 389 yards per game. Baltimore games have averaged 52.2 points this year and with the pass-heavy Oakland offense coming to town we expect another 50-plus point output.
Scott Delaney
My free pick run is now at 31-16-1, and today I'm playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the San Diego Chargers, as I've been one of the big believers of coach Greg Schiano all season and think this is going to be a big win over an AFC West foe for a second-straight week. Last Sunday Tampa Bay was my 150-Dime winner in Oakland. This week I have the Bucs as my freebie at home, as I think that defense will be too strong for San Diego.
Not only defense, but the one person who is going to enjoy this game is Vincent Jackson, who is proving he can be an asset for an offense, something the Chargers are clearly missing. Jackson is averaging a league-leading - and career-best - 22.9 yards per reception, as he's hauled in 31 passes for 710 yards over his first eight games. On the other hand, the sputtering Chargers have seen quarterback Philip Rivers throw for a mere 12 touchdowns and rather-high 10 interceptions.
Tampa's offense is going to be in the spotlight and should respond after last week's performance in Oakland, where rookie Doug Martin is in after back-to-back games with more than 200 total yards from scrimmage, including 251 rushing and four touchdowns in last week's 42-32 win over the Raiders.
The Bucs rank fifth in the NFL in scoring at 28.3 points per game, as quarterback Josh Freeman as been splendid in completing nearly 57 percent of his passes for 1,257 yards, 11 touchdowns and just one interception over the last four weeks. Today he gets a crack at a pass defense that ranks 18th in the NFL, and a scoring defense that has allowed an average of 22.1 points over its last six games - a field goal more than its average.
Sorry Bolts fans, another disappointing loss for you. Take the Buccaneers and buy the half point off the field-goal line and lay 2-1/2 points.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Chuck O'Brien
My free pick run is 129-95-3, and today I'll look to improve on that mark with a play on the Denver Broncos laying the points in Carolina against the struggling Panthers, who may be coming in off a win over the Washington Redskins, but still haven't done enough to impress me to think they can beat Peyton Manning.
Anyone still thinking he has some work to do to clean up the rust hasn't paid close enough attention to the resurgent Broncos, and how good the components around Manning are responding.
This is also a homecoming for Denver coach John Fox, who took the Panthers to the playoffs three times in nine seasons, including two NFC championship games and a Super Bowl. He didn't leave Carolina on the best of terms, and now has a chance to give the Panthers a preview of what might be the AFC's representative in the Super Bowl.
The Broncos (5-3) have won four of their last five with Manning throwing three touchdown passes in each of those games. Denver has scored at least 31 points in their four wins, and I just don't think Cam Newton and the Panthers are good enough to match those kinds of numbers.
Lay the road chalk with Denver.
2♦ DENVER
Craig Davis
It's kind of odd, but the Jets usually play better when you count them out. In games the Jets are expected to win, or at least play good, they usually underperform.
But then when you count them out and give them virtually no chance, they somehow figure out a way to surprise the heck out of you.
Today, I believe, will be one of those days they surprise the heck out of us.
Here are the three ways the Jets cannot only cover this number, but win the game outright. The question is... can they execute?
The Jets absolutely must keep Marshawn Lynch contained. He ranks second in the league with 881 rushing yards through eight games and has rushed for more than 100 yards in three straight games. Considering the Jets rush defense has been as bad as its been over the past five years, Lynch should be licking his chops... but something tells me the Jets are going to try to make Russell Wilson beat them.
And speaking of Wilson, how about someone get some pressure on him? Seriously, is Seattle's offensive line that good? It's good, but not that good. Get some pressure in the rookie's face and you will see just how good he is.
And third, ball control on offense. You have to balance your rushing and passing attack to beat Seattle. If you think you're going to come into Seattle and just throw all over them, you've got another thing coming. The Jets MUST run the ball in order to give Mark Sanchez and/or Tim Tebow a chance to throw the ball with success.
I think they'll be able to do all three of these things with small success, and in the end I believe the Jets will have what it takes to stay within the six points of a Seattle team that I still can't figure out.
Take the Jets plus the touchdown as your free play of the day.
3♦ N.Y. JETS
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Over in the Lions-Vikings game.
Things starting to percolate for Detroit, as they come into the Twin Cities with a pair of Overs played their last two times on the gridiron, scoring 28 against Seattle's tough defense, and 31 in a win at Jacksonville.
The Lions are now 5-2-1 Over the total for the season (although one of those Unders did come in the first meeting against Minnesota), and they are a lopsided 28-14-2 Over the price since the end of the 2009 campaign. On the road the Over numbers are even more glaring, as Detroit is on a 13-2-2 Over clip away from Ford Field in that same time frame.
Minnesota's defense has been springing leaks and they have played Over in their last pair and three of their last four overall.
Two of the last three series meetings between the teams have also played high.
Lions-Vikings to head Over the total.
3♦ DETROIT-MINNESOTA OVER
Chris Jordan
My free winner is Seattle (-6) at home against the struggling New York Jets, who can't seem to find an identity on offense with their brewing quarterback controversy.
I'm sure when Seattle coach Pete Carroll was coaching Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez at Southern Cal, he never envisioned what his former pupil is enduring this season. Well, maybe he did, to a degree, and that's why Carroll would have rather had him play his senior season instead of entering the NFL draft as a junior.
I'm pretty sure, though, Carroll wouldn't be putting Sanchez through what New York coach Rex Ryan has been since the start of the season. Nevertheless, with the Jets' season seemingly spiraling away, as they've lost four of their last five, I think this is a good spot for the Seahawks to take advantage and go into their bye week after two straight home wins.
Quite frankly, I've been more impressed by Seattle's rookie quarterback Russell Wilson than I have been with Sanchez or his backup, Tim Tebow. Playing at home this season, Wilson has nine touchdowns, no interceptions and a league-best passer rating of 120.2, winning all four starts.
Complementing Wilson out of the backfield is running back Marshawn Lynch, the No. 2 rusher in the NFL with 881 yards. Last week versus the Vikings he recorded his fifth 100-yard game. With another 119 yards he'll become the first Seahawks running back with consecutive 1,000-yard seasons since Shaun Alexander in 2004 and '05.
Even more impressive than having two electrifying, skill-position players on an offense that actually ranks 29th in the league, is knowing Seattle comes into this game with the NFL's fourth-best defense overall. And that won't bode well for the Jets' 27th-ranked offense that will be introduced to the "The Legion of Boom.
The depth of the Seattle defense is scary, and the fact the Seahawks have towering members in the secondary honestly makes this a terrible matchup for the Jets. I expect Seattle to take advantage on every spot on the field, beginning with the trenches since the Jets have allowed a glaring number of sacks. In five losses, Sanchez has been sacked 16 times. Couple that with the fact Seattle defensive end Chris Clemons has totaled 13 sacks over the past 16 games he's played and that spells trouble for Sanchez.
Again, this is the right time and perfect spot for the Seahawks to score a momentous win before their bye week..
4♦ SEATTLE
Matt Rivers
Sunday NFL free play on the Over (53') in the Falcons-Saints NFC South clash in New Orleans.
I am well aware that Atlanta has been a predominantly Under team this year - 3 of their last 4 and 5 of 8 overall this year staying low - but something happens to the Falcons when they set foot against the Saints in the Superdome, as each of the last 4 series meetings between the teams contested in the Crescent City have ALL played Over the total.
As for New Orleans, the Saints did hold Under on Monday night against the Eagles, but their defense still gave up over 400 yards for a record-setting eighth straight game and they are an accident waiting to happen each and every time they are asked to stop someone. Atlanta has been able to score 23 points or more in all but last week's game against Dallas this season, and each of the Falcons last four division games have played Over the total.
Make it five-for-five Over between the Falcons and Saints in the Big Easy this Sunday afternoon.
2♦ ATLANTA-NEW ORLEANS OVER
And just for good measure here is a second free play!
Sunday's other free play will be the surging Lions as the small road favorite against the sliding Vikings.
Detroit did lose the season's first meeting at home to Minny, but since their bye the Lions have won three of four straight up and they have covered all four of those games.
As for Minnesota, their 4-1 start - including a win over the mighty 49ers - is a thing of the distant past, as the Vikings play their last game before their bye-week having dropped three of their last four, while going 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four games.
Christian Ponder continues to throw interceptions - 8 of them in his last five games - and he threw for only 63 yards passing in last week's loss at Seattle. Those numbers are not going to cut it against a Detroit attack that has come to life, scoring 26 points or more in three of their last four wins.
Detroit gave up a kick return TD and a punt return TD in their 20-13 home loss to Minnesota back on September 30th. As long as they bottle up Percy Harvin, I see good things for the Lions in this second meeting in Minnesota.
4♦ DETROIT
Bob Balfe
Dallas Cowboys -2.5
Did you see the Eagles Offensive Line? They looked horrible in the game against the Saints and that New Orleans Defense is garbage. The Eagles also had two more lineman go down later in the game so this team pretty much is playing with no offensive line. There is no way the can win this game today. Dallas has a decent defense and good players on offense. This is a big divisional game and without protection you have no time to run your offense. This might turn into a circus. Take the Cowboys.
Charlie Sports
San Diego Chargers at Tampa Buccaneers
Play: San Diego Chargers +3
The (4-4) San Diego Chargers of the NFL AFC West division will take on the (4-4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the NFC South division in 2012 NFL action. The over is 6-0 the last 6 between the teams. San diego is 6-1 against the spread the last 7 meetings between the teams. The teams are going in opposite directions as San Diego is 1-3 ATS their last 4 while Tampa Bay has won 3 of the last 4, both straight up and ATS. San Diego gets the road cover +3.
John Ryan
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Prediction: Buffalo Bills
The simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 75-34 record for 69% winners since 2002. Play on road teams avenging a loss against opponent that are off a road loss. Fine tuning this system and simplifying it to just include teams off a road loss playing in November produces a 37-9 ATS record for 80% winners. Here is a second system that has produced a 26-6 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2006. Play on road teams after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games in games played in weeks 10 through 13. This system has gone 15-3 ATS for 83% ATS winners over the past three seasons. New England put up to 52 points in their first meeting against Buffalo September 30. The Patriots gained 247 rushing yards in that game and Buffalo will make the necessary adjustments to contain the running attack. In the three games where the Patriots gained less than 100 rushing yards they also lost ATS. I believe Buffalo can accomplish this and make Brady defeat them through the air. This game will be single digits throughout. Take Buffalo.