Michael Alexander
NY Jets vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: NY Jets
The Jets beat Miami and Indianapolis and nearly upset New England losing in OT. Seattle is a misleading 5-4. The Seahawks could be 1-6 in their last seven games if they didn’t get some lucky breaks and calls (remember Green Bay). The Seahawks beat New England by one and got lucky in a 16-12 win against Carolina. Keep in mind as well that the Seahawks lost to the Rams who are a worse team worse than the Jets. Russell Wilson has nine touchdowns and no interceptions at Century Link Field but laying all these points with a rookie QB under center is usually a very risky proposition.
Nick Parsons
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
Pick: Denver Nuggets
In a series where Denver has taken the last six head to head matchups, going back to the start of the 2010 season, we will take Denver to continue their winning ways in the desert. While the offenses are somewhat even so far this season, the Denver D is setting itself apart from the Suns on paper, giving up only 96 points per game compared to the Suns 103.4 pts per game they have given up. The Suns have been worse on their home floor this season allowing opponents to shoot 49% from the floor and 35% from three point land. The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS this season, and are on fire covering five straight games, while the Suns are showing signs early of being a lottery contender with a 1-6 ATS record thus far in the season. We will side with the stronger Denver squad to cover the one possession spread.
Wunderdog
Atlanta at Los Angeles Clippers
Pick: First Half Under 98.5
A long road trip for Atlanta, the start of a four game trip out West. This team is in the middle of the pack defensively to start, but they have been very strong on defense the last few years, leaning on that as a strength. They are rounding into form, going 2-0 UNDER the total the last two games, slowing the pace down. They topped Indiana allowing 86 points (allowing 9 points in one quarter) and lost to the defending champs as the offense scored 89 points in both games. They held Miami to 42 first half points the last game and are trying to redefine their offense after the Hawks dealt perennial All-Star Joe Johnson to Brooklyn during the offseason. When the Hawks play a good team they really slow the pace down and play tough defense as the UNDER is 9-4 in Hawks last 13 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. They won't want to get into a running game with the first place L.A. Clippers, a team playing better defense this season allowing .439% shooting. They are off a win at Portland allowing 90 points and just 39 in the first half. Look for more defense in the first half and a slower pace than oddsmakers expect. Play the Hawks/Clippers First Half UNDER the total.
DAVID BANKS
Texans / Bears Over 38.5
In what is probably the best Sunday Night Football matchup of the year so far, the top seeds in the AFC, the Houston Texans (7-1, 6-2 ATS) pay a visit to the second seeds in the NFC, the Chicago Bears (7-1, 5-3 ATS) at Soldier Field in Chicago at 8:20 ET on NBC. These are also two of the best defenses in the NFL, with the Bears ranking second in scoring defense allowing 15.0 points per game and the Texans tied for third at 17.1 points, and those two units should set the tempo for this contest,
Chicago ranks sixth in total defense 318.1 yards per game, and the truth is that the Bears have actually been better than that as a lot of the yards that they have given up have come in garbage time late as they have played with a lot of large leads. Last week was a perfect example as the stats say that they allowed 339 total yards including 159 rushing yards on only 18 carries, but those numbers all got blown out of proportion on an 80-yard touchdown run by Chris Johnson in the fourth quarter with Chicago leading the game 51-12! Also, the Chicago defense has been the primary reason why the Bears are averaging 29.5 points per game, as they are on pace to set an NFL record for return touchdowns in a season with an incredible eight in eight games, with the record for a full season being 13. The strength of the Bears is their run defense, as they rank sixth allowing 88.2 rushing yards per game, and they would probably be first or second if you take away Johnson's meaningless 80-yard scamper as only 9.9 rushing yards per game separates sixth ranked Chicago from top ranked Tampa Bay. Thus look for the Bears to at the very least contain Arian Foster here, making it much harder for a Texans' team that relies so heavily on the run to score.
Houston ranks third in total defense at a mere 286.1 yards per game, and the Texans are solidly consistent across the board, ranking second in rushing defense and fourth in passing defense. Truth be told, they probably should not have much trouble containing a Chicago offense that has a huge disconnection between its total offense and its scoring. The Bears rank third in the NFL in scoring, but as mentioned, their 29.5 points per game have been a function almost entirely of the defense. That is because Chicago ranks only 25th in total offense at a quite pedestrian 324.4 yards per contest. Furthermore, the Texans do not turn the ball over much at all, with a grand total of six turnovers through eight games, and that severely lessens the chances of the Bears continuing their amazing string of return touchdowns.
This is only the second time this season that the Texans have playing on national television, and as fate would have it, their only loss this year came the first time they had a chance to showcase their skills vs. the Green Bay Packers, also on a Sunday night. Houston has regrouped nicely in its two games since that loss though, with the defense allowing a total of 22 points in two wins. The 'under' is 6-2 in the last eight Houston games following a straight up win, as well as 9-1 in the last 10 Chicago games after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in the previous game.