Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 1,2009

Robert Ferringo

Take Tennessee (-3) over Jacksonville

It’s almost like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football at this point with Titans backers. This team has lost five straight games against the spread but are still favored this week against the rival Jaguars. How could that be? Well, winless and undefeated teams coming out of their bye week have combined to go a stellar 46-28-1 over the past several years. With two weeks to prepare I think that the Titans will be able to overcome the biggest issues that led to their rout at Jacksonville a month ago: they weren't ready to play. The Titans were down 20-3 in a blink in that game and never got close. I think that Jeff Fisher is a strong enough coach where he will have his guys ready for revenge. The Titans have won four of six in this series and I think that after getting humiliated in New England this team will give max effort at home this Sunday. The Titans finally break into the win column and we collect in the process.

VEGAS EXPERTS

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

The home team lost all three meetings last year, including a Divisional Playoff game that saw the Eagles win 23-11 in New York. We feel that the public has made a terrible error in taking the G-Men to the role of favorite as they obviously fell in love with the trend that has the underdog covering the previous nine matchups. However, now we have the dog, and Philly is 8-3 ATS the past two seasons here at home, not to mention 11-2 ATS off a division game.

Play on: Philadelphia

Vernon Croy

Cleveland Browns vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Under 40

Take the Chicago Bears Under the posted total of 40 as your Free NFL Pick for Sunday afternoon. The Browns are averaging just 7.2 ppg on the road this season and just 7.7 ppg over their last 3 games played while the Bears are only averaging 12 ppg over their last 2 games. The Over/Under is 1-5 in the Bears last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their last game and 1-4 for the Bears in their last 5 games after a loss.

John Ryan

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: New York Giants -1

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the NY Giants as they set to play Philadelphia at 1:00 EST. AiS shows a 69% probability that NY will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 56-27 making 26.3 units since 2004. Play on road teams that are good rushing teams gaining 125 to 150 RYPG facing an average rushing team gaining 95-125 RYPG. Giants are a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons; 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) versus good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Giants are simply the better team in nearly every facet of the game. Giants have one of the best 3rd down defenses in the league and the Eagles are one of the worst at converting 3rd and 10 or more situations. In fact, the Eagles were on an 0-16 streak of not converting 3rd and 10+ yards before converting one last week against Washington. Short week and volatile inconsistency on offense makes it a far easier defensive assignment for the Giants. I also took a look at the defensive matchups in passing situations and I do not see how the Eagles OL is going to protect McNabb and give him enough time to go through his progressions. When he is forced to lock in on one hot receiver, as was the case in Oakland, it makes the total offense highly inconsistent. If the Raiders were successful image what the Giants will do the Eagles OL. Take the Giants.

Doc's Sports

Take Dallas over Seattle

The Cowboys are starting to play to their potential coming off a big win over Atlanta last week at the new stadium and expect them to have no trouble taking down the Seahawks this Sunday. Dallas won this match-up in 2008, 34-9, and I see history repeating itself in 2009. The Hawks are usually a terrible road team when travel outside the pacific time zone and that will be the case on Sunday, when they make a long trip south into the central time zone. Seattle is coming off of a bye week but that has not been good for them in the past since they are 1-10 ATS in their next game following the off week. Seattle is 2-4 in 2009 and that does not bode well since four of these six games have come at Qwest Field. They are 0-2 on the road this season and it will be 0-3 after a rout in Dallas. Doc’s Sports College Football Game of the Year will go this Saturday. This is the one game you do not want to miss! We are coming off three straight-up top play winners and this one will grab the money as well.

Craig Trapp

Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Denver +155

Can we say destiny? This is the Broncos year and with this great defense why play against them. Baltimore used to play very similar to this Denver team with great defense and taking advantage of TO's. This Ravens team has changed from a great defense to an average defense. Instead they are now an offensive team that needs to score 21 plus points to win. Not good as DEN does not give up points and this one will be played in the low teens. Too good of value to pass up on a Denver team that believes they are the best in the league and are out to prove it.

Bob Wingerter

Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Over 41.5

Does Buffalo have a lockdown defense? The answer is no. They’ve been lucky to have faced Carolina and Jake the Terrible Awful Delhomme, Cleveland and the Siamese Twin Terribles Quinn and Anderson, and the Diapered Quarterback on the Jets. Oh, and Chad Henne on Miami in his first start. Oh, and Tampa Bay with Byron Ham Sandwich Leftwich. These guys in Bills’ costumes are out there saying, “Somebody, please light us up! We’re out here and plays are waiting to be made by you!” Houston’s offense generally does a decent job of moving the ball and getting into the end zone with it. Meanwhile, if there was ever a defense that Buffalo’s offense can wake up against, it’s the tackling dummies employed by the Houston franchise. Weather forecast is for clear skies, only 8 mph winds and temperature in the high 40s, not bad for Buffalo in November.

Ben Burns

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Prediction: Tennessee Titans

Both these AFC South rivals are coming off a bye. Off a 59-0 loss and with an 0-6 (1-5 ATS) record, that week of rest may have benefitted the Titans, more than it did the Jaguars - the Jags were coming off a 23-20 victory and are 3-3. Note that the Jags were upset 23-17, as 7-point home favorites, to the Browns after last year's bye. On the other hand, the Titans are 2-0 SU the last two seasons, when coming off their regular season bye, winning by a combined score of 54-23.

These teams met at Jacksonville a few weeks ago. The Jags won that one by a score of 37-17. That has the Titans playing with 'revenge' here, which should make them a little extra 'hungry.' Note that even including the earlier result, the Titans are still 9-6 ATS their last 15 divisional games while the Jags are 7-8 (6-9 su) in their last 15.

Including a 2-0 SU/ATS record in last season's games, the Titans are 4-2 SU/ATS the last six meetings in this series and 12-8 SU/ATS the last 20. That includes a 7-3 SU/ATS mark the last 10 times that the teams played here at Tennessee.

Already motivated to earn their first victory and avenge the earlier defeat at Jacksonville, the blowout loss at New England should help provide the Titans with even further motivation. After all, teams don't get blanked 59-0 very often.

That loss, combined with this season's poor overall results, has helped to keep this afternoon's line relatively low. Therefore it's worth noting that the Titans are a highly profitable 16-4-1 ATS (17-4 SU) the last 21 times that they were listed as home favorites of three points or less. As long as the line stays at a field goal or less, consider laying the small number.

Marc Lawrence

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers take on the Colts in Indianapolis in a non-conference clash at Lucas Oil Stadium looking to get back on the win track off back-to-back losses. As the pressure to remain perfect begins to mount for Indy we note that the Niners are 7-1 ATS as dogs under Mike Singletary. With the Colts having surpassed 30 points in each of their last four games, look for a return to the norm here today. Grab the points with the Niners.

Scott Spreitzer

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Over

It's not often we have said this over the last decade, but the Baltimore defense is not playing disciplined and sound football. It's almost as though they had been reading the press clippings and their own arrogance has gotten the best of them. Check out this season's contests and you'll see a defense with several individuals playing out of position numerous times throughout a game. And that includes Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. This is good news for a Denver offense that has been clicking under the direction of the new coaching staff. Look for Kyle Orton to pick on Reed in this one with double-pumps and play-action. Reed has been biting against the better teams on the Ravens' schedule, and I expect more of the same today. Offensively, as reported earlier this week, the Ravens received great news with the likely return of OLT Jared Gaither. This is huge for Baltimore because they won't have to line-up rookie Michael Oher against sack specialist Elvis Dumervil all game. With Gaither blocking up front, expect Flacco to be able to go through his progressions. Flacco is dangerous when he can take time and step up in the pocket and I suspect he'll be able to do so on Sunday. We received solid line value on this total due to Baltimore's defensive perception and Denver's defensive statistics. The number moved up a little during the week, but not enough as far as I'm concerned. There may be some rain during this game, but I don't expect it to hamper the passing game. Look for this contest to sail Over the total on Sunday.

LEE KOSTROSKI

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
PICK: Seattle Seahawks +10.5

Just because the Cowboys finally looked decent against Atlanta last week doesn't mean we are sold on this team. They are poorly coached and seemed to be "up & down" depending on the week. Last week's game was a great spot for the Boys to perform well as they were off a bye and essentially in a must win situation at home. The played solid against an over rated Falcons team (in my opinion) and picked up the 37-21 win. Now they are in a different spot, favored by nearly double digits in a game they expect to win. I look for a flat performance and the Seahawks to get the cover.

Seattle has been one of the most "beat up" teams in the NFL so far this year. At one point they were missing as many as 9 starters to injury. Now they find themselves as healthy as they've been since the start of the season coming off a bye week. While they did lose Tatupu for the season, Seattle's starting CB Marcus Trufant and starting OLB Leroy Hill back in the line up. Not only that, QB Matt Hasselbeck who has been recovering from broken ribs is as healthy as he's been since the injury and will absolutely get the start on Sunday. He played terribly in the Hawks very poor outing vs. Arizona a few weeks ago. Before that, Hasselbeck had made four starts and played quite well. Minus his Arizona debacle, he was 53 of 84 (63%) for 617 yards and 7 TD's. Now that he is close to being 100% healthy again, I expect him to play well on Sunday against a Dallas defense that ranks 21st in the NFL vs. the pass.

The Cowboys rely heavily on their running game to open up the pass for inconsistent Tony Romo. I think they'll have trouble doing that here vs. a Seahawk defense that allows just 99 YPG on the ground. I believe that stat is even skewed a bit as the Hawks have held every opponent but one this season under triple digits rushing. They had one really poor effort vs. the 49ers who gashed them for 256 yards. Take out that game and this Seattle stop unit allows just 68 YPG on the ground.

Seattle is in desperate need of a win with a record of 2-4. As I mentioned, they are also off a bye week. Dallas has shown a tendency to be a bit lax depending on the opponent and don't be surprised if they are peeking ahead to their huge Sunday Night game @ Philly a week from now. The Boys are just 4-9 ATS their last 13 as a favorite of a TD or more. Seattle wants it more here and keeps it close.

LARRY NESS

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
PICK: New York Giants

It's a busy Sunday of sports in Philadelphia to say the least. The Yanks and Phillies will square off in Game 4 of the World Series at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday night (7:55 ET, weather permitting). However, at 1:00 ET, the Giants take on the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. The Giants opened 5-0 in 2009 but all of a sudden, look very vulnerable after a 48-27 loss at New Orleans and a 24-17 home loss last Sunday night to the Cardinals. The Giants are now 5-2 and the Eagles 4-2, after beating the Redskins this past Monday night, 27-17. Eli had a 10-2 ratio in the Giants' 5-0 start but he's completed just 48.5 percent of his throws for an average of only 210.5 YPG with two TDs and four INTs in the team's two losses. It hasn't helped that the Giants' running game has dramatically fallen off the last two games, averaging just 95.5 YPG in the team's two losses, after averaging 160.4 YPG in New York's 5-0 start. The Eagles haven't exactly looked like a juggernaut in 2009, as the team's four wins have come over Carolina, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Washington (teams with a combined record of 5-22). The Eagles have lost at home 48-22 to the Saints (sans McNabb) and embarrassingly at Oakland, 13-9 (gained just 283 total yards while converting only 3-of-18 on 3rd and 4th down!). New York went 12-4 to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC last year but fell 23-11 to the Eagles in a divisional playoff game at Giants Stadium. However, Manning is 4-0 as a starter in the regular season vs the Eagles at Philadelphia and the Giants ATS prowess away from home is well-documented. Going back to the start of the 2006 season, the Giants are 22-7 ATS in true road games (including the postseason). The Eagles did not show all that much Monday night at Washington against the "we haven't got a clue" Redskins and off back-to-back losses, the Giants are the play.

MATT FARGO

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
PICK: New York Jets -3

The Jets picked up a much needed win last week in Oakland. Granted it was the Raiders but New York was falling fast with three straight losses after opening the season with three straight wins. Those last two defeats could have gone either way as the setback against the Bills came in overtime while the loss in Miami came in the final seconds. This means it is payback time for New York who has lost two straight meetings with Miami after winning five straight in this series prior to that. The Jets have Jacksonville on deck so there is obviously no chance of a lookahead here as the division rival will be the full focus this week. The Dolphins are coming off a heartbreaking loss against New Orleans last week as they blew a three-touchdown lead and allowed the Saints to outscore them by a 22-0 score in the 4th quarter. The defense was lit up for 414 yards which was no big surprise as New Orleans is rolling on offense but it was the two interception returns for touchdowns that were the real difference. The last one came with under two minutes remaining which sealed the cover for the Saints. That game was the first bad one for Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne who had made two straight solid starts prior to this. He did not play very well in relief of Chad Pennington back against San Diego, as he allowed a pick-six there also, but he cannot be faulted for that one. After three straight home starts, Henne will be making his first road start of the season and it comes in a tough environment against a team out for revenge. The Jets have ran for over 300 yards in each of the last two weeks and while that is not going to happen again, the running game can still take some of the pressure off rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez who was in a big tailspin during that three-game skid. He was not exactly perfect last week against Oakland but he did not need to be and he will look to duplicate what he did in the first meeting against the Dolphins and that was play a mistake free game. On the other side, the Jets will have to contend with the Miami running game that has been solid in recent weeks. New York is feeling the loss of Kris Jenkins in stopping the run but the last two games they have been pretty solid, holding the Bills to 142 yards on 42 carries and the Raiders to 119 yards on the ground. Now it is time to save some face. Linebacker Bart Scott is definitely out for some payback. “Our pride is on the line,” he said. “Everything I stand for is on the line. Everything I represent is on the line.” For the first time in a long time, Scott was speechless after that first meeting. “That might be the second time I've ever been embarrassed as a defense.” As mentioned the rushing game has been solid for the Jets and while Miami is fourth in the NFL in rushing defense, it is not in a good spot. The Dolphins are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games against teams averaging 150 or more rushing ypg. Also, the Jets are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game while Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in its previous game. 3* New York Jets

ALEX SMART

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
PICK: Baltimore Ravens -3

The time has come, Denver. It's time to face the music on Sunday.

The Denver Broncos are one of two teams that are still undefeated both SU and ATS this year, but at 6-0, the party is about to be over when they travel east to clash with the Baltimore Ravens.

There's no doubting that Denver has a defense that can get down and dirty with any team in the NFL, as the unit has already held down impressive offenses such as Cincinnati (seven points), Dallas (ten points), and New England (17 points) on the season. However, I'm still questioning just how good this offense really is. Sure, scoring 34 points two weeks ago at Qualcomm was impressive against the Chargers, but two of those scores came on kick returns. If you factor those out, Denver hasn't put up more than 20 offensive points on a serious team this season (forget about the 27 it scored on Cleveland and the 23 it scored on Oakland... I'm talking about real NFL teams here, not JV squads). In addition to that, how much longer can QB Kyle Orton look like Joe Montana? Orton, who never threw for 3,000 yards in his career and had a TD/INT ratio of 30/27 coming into this season is all of a sudden on a clip to throw for nearly 4,000 yards and 24 TDs against just three picks! Baltimore's defense has had two weeks to prepare for this very simplistic offense, and it should thrive on Sunday afternoon against it.

QB Joe Flacco is proving that he's the real deal as well. The Ravens may be on a three-game skid right now, but it's not Joe Cool's fault. Save when he only led the boys in purple to 14 points against the Bengals, Flacco has put the offense in the end zone at least three times in each game this season. With a defense that still features names like Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs, and Ed Reed, there's no excuse for 21 points to not be enough to win a game.

History will tell you that this is a spot that Baltimore should thrive in. Remember the last time an undefeated team this deep into this season paid a visit to the Ravens? They should've stopped the perfect Pats two years ago in their tracks before ever getting the chance to be known as the "18-1 Patriots." Baltimore has also covered five of the L/6 in this series. The Ravens are also 19-7 ATS in their L/26 overall and 39-16-1 ATS in their L/56 games as home favorites. Everything is ripe for a humbling loss for the Broncos on Sunday. Look for the perfect season to get halted in Week 8.