SCOTT RICKENBACH
Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears
PICK: Chicago Bears -13
Last week, right here in this spot, we again had a big favorite that took care of business for us as the Colts crushed the Rams by 36 points. There were a ton of blowouts in last week’s NFL action and two of the teams that were involved in one were the Bears and Browns. Both Chicago and Cleveland were on the wrong end of the blowouts and, of course, only one team will bounce back this week. That should be the Bears and we expect it be a bounce back by a huge margin. Therefore, the big line here does not scare us. While each team lost big last week there are certainly some differing circumstances. The Browns were blownout at home by a 4 TD margin and they now have to hit the road for this game. Conversely, the Bears were blown out on the road by a 5 TD margin but they get the benefit of coming back home for their attempt at a bounce back effort.
Keep in mind, the Bears are 3-3 this season and their first two losses each came by a margin of just one score. Chicago also held the yardage edge in each of those two defeats. In other words, the loss to the Bengals on Sunday was the first time this season that Chicago got blown out. As for the Browns, their beating at the hands of the Packers was nothing new. They’ve been blown out in five of their six losses this season. Those five blowout losses have all come by 13 points or more. On the season, Cleveland is averaging just 10 points per game. They are catching the angry Bears at the wrong time and in the wrong place. The Browns three road losses have come by an average margin of 22 points per defeat. Another blowout is on the NFL schedule Sunday and this one occurs in Chicago! Consider a small play on the BEARS Sunday.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
PICK: Tennessee Titans -3
Three weeks ago I gave out the Detroit Lions who kept it close enough to come away with an ATS victory; two weeks ago I had the Browns who put 14 on the board and snuck away with the win; last week I gave the Packers and they absolutely smashed the Browns 31-3: (also had the "under" in the Packers game as last weeks "video pick"; >Parsons Video Pick<)
Although they are winless on the season, I believe that the Tennessee Titans are going to finally put together their best effort of the season and break the "goose egg".
The Titans went into their bye-week having lost 59-0 to the Patriots; I look for this team to bounce back with the extra time off.
The Titans' schedule does ease up a bit over the next few weeks, with this home game against the Jaguars, a trip to 3-3 San Francisco and a home game against 3-4 Buffalo.
Defensive end Jevon Kearse's thoughts on where his team finds itself at the moment: "I'm speaking for this team, for the Tennessee Titans," Kearse said. "It's all about finishing up strong. We started one way. We need to finish up the other. We need to put those six games behind us, taking pride and not throwing in the towel."
Despite everything they've been through this year, Tennessee remains 8-4 SU its last 12 at LP Field.
On the other side of the field: The Jaguars didn't play last weekend and yet their pass defense got worse in the league rankings -- they went from 30th to No. 31 in passing yardage allowed, a sign that their pass defense will be a major issue in their final 10 games.
Maurice Jones-Drew ran 33 times for 133 yards against St. Louis, but he's got just 463 yards in 108 carrie
Jacksonville is 4-9 ATS its last 13 overall and 2-4 ATS its last six on the road.
Bottom line: No team in the league is more hungry for a win than the Titans and Tennessee always plays Jacksonville tough; it is 7-3 ATS its last 10 at home against the Jaguars and I believe this trend will continue on Sunday; play on the TITANS!
Black Widow
1* on Indianapolis Colts -11.5
The Colts have everything figured out right now, while the 49ers are still searching for answers. San Francisco won't find those answers in time for Sunday's meeting with one of the hottest teams in the league this year, and the hottest team in the league stemming back to last season. Indy has now won 15 consecutive regular season games since beating the Patriots on 11/02/08. This team only knows one thing, and that's winning football games. The 49ers are trying to figure out how to win, and now they will be doing it with a new starting quarterback in Alex Smith. They have tried Smith in the past, only to come up with disappointing results. He did throw 3 touchdown passes against Houston last week after coming in for Shaun Hill in his benching. But that was a Texans' defense that is terrible against the pass, and the Colts happen to have one of the best passing defenses in the league. Indy is giving up just 12.8 points/game this season thanks in large part to their pass defense, which is giving up just 180 passing yards/game and 4.9 yards/attempt. The 49ers do have a good run defense, but that does them no good against Peyton Manning and the Colts, who average 29.2 points/game, 311 passing yards/game and 8.7 yards/pass attempt. The 49ers' weakness defensively is against the pass, where they allow 236 passing yards/game and 6.5 yards/attempt. Indy has won 4 straight games by 17 or more points, and you can chalk up a 5th straight once this one goes final Sunday. Alex Smith is not the answer to the 49ers' problems, and he'll struggle against the Colts' excellent pass defense. The Colts are 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) off a road blowout win by 21 points or more since 1992. Indy is an UNBEATEN 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Take the Colts and lay the points.
Joseph D'Amico
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: New York Giants
In the battle for NFC East supremacy, New York has a big edge. The Giant's have lost two in a row and deperately need both a league win and a divisional win. The Giant's have covered their last 4 games played in Philadelphia. The Eagle's should be without all-offense star Brain Westbrook due to a concussion he suffered in Monady Nights game. Philly's offensive line gave up 6 sacks to Oakland two weeks ago. This week they will have their hands full against NY's ferocious pass rush. The underdog is 9-0 ATS their last 9 meetings in this series and the road team is 4-0 ATS their last 4. The Giant's are 22-5 ATS their last 27 road games, 39-18-3 ATS their last 60 games vs. the NFC, aand 33-16-2 ATS their last 51 overall. The Eagle's are 2-5 ATS their last 7 home games vs. teams with a winning road record. Without Westbrook, New York can key on putting pressure on McNabb. NY wins.
Wunderdog
Jacksonville at Tennessee
Pick: Jacksonville +3
Another first will take place in this strange NFL season as the Titans come into this game favored. It's the first time to my knowledge that a team that lost by the most points of any team their last time out (59) has been favored in their next game. It is hard to say what is going on in Tennessee, but certain to say it is not good. The Titans were 13-3 last year, and have opened this season 0-6. Many thought at 0-3 that this team would turn it on. Then they dropped to 0-4 and again, most thought the same thing. But when they went to 0-5, this team obviously quit, playing the worst game I can remember seeing a team play vs. New England two weeks ago. So why would they show up after needing a win for two weeks in the worst way, and then when their season was completely over, just go through the motions? They showed no resolve or pride, and I don't expect them to suddenly find it at 0-6 knowing that their season is all but over. Desperate to do something (nothing else has worked), Jeff Fisher benched Kerry Collins in favor of Vince Young. Young is supposed to save this team? Child please. It's reported that Fisher didn't even want to do this but owner Bud Adams told him to. That shows you how much faith Fisher has in Young. But, Fisher's attentions would be better focused on a defense that has allowed 33 points and over 400 yards per game! Jacksonville has a different mission as they can move to 4-3 and become viable playoffs contenders with a win. They have begun to play much better in recent weeks, going 3-1 the last four . The oddsmakers keep living on the Titans of a year ago, and this team is not only is losing, they are not even competitive as they have dropped each of their last three games by 20+ including one to the Jags. While he's had his ups and downs as coach of the Jags, Jack Del Rio is at his best as an underdog where he has posted a 32-21 ATS mark. Jacksonville is the better team on this field and I am backing them with the points.
Norm Hitzges
Triple Play - Dallas -9.5 vs Seattle
Single Plays
Jacksonville +3 vs Tennessee
Carolina +10 vs Arizona
Houston -3.5 vs Buffalo
Indianapolis -12.5 vs San Francisco
Detroit -4 vs St. Louis
San Diego -16.5 vs Oakland
New Orleans -10 vs Atlanta
Cleveland/Chicago Under 40
NFL
Denver (6-0 SU and ATS) at Baltimore (3-3, 4-2 ATS)
The surprising Broncos put their perfect record on the line when they make the trip to M&T Bank Stadium to face the Ravens, who have followed up 3-0 start with three straight defeats.
Denver had its bye last week after dropping San Diego 34-23 two Mondays ago as a 3½-point road underdog, remaining unbeaten SU and ATS this season. The Broncos’ defense has been tremendous all year, giving up a league-low 11 points per game, but the stop unit has been nearly perfect in the second half of games, yielding just 10 points after halftime all season, including just only three second-half points total in the past five games. That includes shutting out the Patriots and Cowboys after the half and allowing only a field goal in the win over the Chargers.
Baltimore also had last week off following its heartbreaking 33-31 loss at Minnesota on Oct. 18, missing a game-winning field goal as time expired, though the Ravens covered as a three-point ‘dog. Baltimore has dropped three in row (1-2 ATS) after going 3-0 SU and ATS in its first three games. The Ravens’ offense is averaging 393.2 ypg (fifth) and 28.2 ppg (also fifth), but their usually stout defense is yielding 332.7 ypg and 21.7 ppg, both 19th in the league.
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS (4-2 SU) in the last six meetings in this rivalry, though most recently, Denver won 13-3 as a 5½-point home favorite in October 2006. The home team has cashed in three of the last four contests.
The Broncos, who had been perennially poor at the betting window the past few years, are now riding ATS hot streaks of 6-0 after a SU win, 5-0 against the AFC, 6-1 after a bye, 6-2 on the road and 4-0 as an underdog, cashing as a pup each of the last three weeks. The Ravens, despite their recent woes, remain on ATS runs of 19-7 overall, 9-2 laying points, 4-1 after a SU loss, 6-2 after a spread-cover, 6-2 after the bye and 39-16-1 as a home chalk.
The under has hit in five of Denver’s six games this year and is on further rolls for the Broncos of 10-1 after a SU win, 8-1 after an ATS win and 9-4-1 with Denver a road pup. For Baltimore, the under is on streaks of 5-1 at home (all as a chalk) and 6-1 as a favorite, though the Ravens are also on “over” surges of 5-2 overall, 6-0-1 in November and 4-1 against winning teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Cleveland (1-6, 3-4 ATS) at Chicago (3-3 SU and ATS)
The Bears, looking to bounce back from a humiliating loss to the Bengals, return to Soldier Field for the first time in four weeks when they take on the lowly Browns in a non-conference contest.
Chicago got plastered 45-10 at Cincinnati on Sunday as a one-point chalk for its second consecutive SU and ATS setback. Despite acquiring Pro Bowl QB Jay Cutler, the Bears are averaging just 312.2 ypg (21st) and 21.5 ppg (20th), primarily due to the league’s fourth-worst rushing attack (80.7 ypg). The Bears’ defense isn’t much better, allowing 329.8 ypg (16th) and 24 ppg (22nd).
Cleveland got drubbed 31-3 by Green Bay as a 9½-point home ‘dog last week, ending a three-game ATS surge. The Browns have scored 14 points or less five times this year, including three outings of six points or less, and they sit 31st in the 32-team league in total ypg (225.4) and 30th in scoring (10.3 ppg). Flailing QB Derek Anderson (2 TDs, 7 INTs, 2 lost fumbles, 40.6 rating) leads a passing game that is averaging just 128.3 ypg.
These teams have been preseason combatants each of the last six years, including two months ago, when host Chicago won 26-23 giving 2½ points, but they’ve played just two meaningful games this decade. Most recently in games that count, Cleveland won 20-10 as a three-point home favorite in October 2005.
The Bears are on ATS skids of 0-4 as a double-digit favorite, 1-4 in November and 2-5-1 as a non-division home chalk, but they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five at Soldier Field and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss. The Browns have nothing but negative ATS trends to speak of, including 3-9-1 overall, 2-5 on the road, 2-8-1 after a SU loss, 1-6-1 after a non-cover, 3-7-1 getting points and 1-5 catching more than 10 points.
Chicago is on “over” runs of 21-9 at home, 18-5 as a Soldier Field chalk and 5-1 with the Bears favored by more than 10 points. On the flip side, the under for Cleveland is on streaks of 19-9-1 overall, 4-1-1 on the highway, 4-1 after a SU loss and 10-4-1 after an ATS setback.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO
Houston (4-3, 3-3-1 ATS) at Buffalo (3-4, 4-3 ATS)
The Bills and Texans both shoot for a third straight victory when they get together at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Buffalo beat Carolina 20-9 Sunday as a seven-point road pup for its second consecutive win and cover, following a three-game SU and ATS slide in which the Bills totaled just 20 points. Backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, still subbing for Trent Edwards (concussion) has led both victories and will start again this week, but his numbers haven’t been great (21 of 47, 239 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT). The key has been an opportunistic defense that forced four turnovers (three INTs, one fumble) against Carolina after picking off six two weeks ago against the Jets.
Houston darted out to a 21-0 lead against San Francisco, then gave away almost all of it before hanging on for a 24-21 home victory Sunday, pushing as a three-point favorite. The Texans’ offense is averaging 364.7 ypg and 23.9 ppg, both good for 10th in the league, with QB Matt Schaub leading the third-best passing attack at 285.6 ypg, trailing only the Colts and Patriots, respectively.
Buffalo is 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS) in four lifetime meetings in this rivalry, winning and covering the last two, including a 24-21 victory as a three-point road ‘dog in November 2006.
Despite the Bills’ recent upswing, they remain on negative ATS streaks of 1-7 at Ralph Wilson, 1-6-1 in November, 3-9 against winning teams, 1-5 after a SU win and 0-4 as a home chalk. The Texans have failed to cover in four in a row on turf and are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU win, but they carry positive pointspread streaks of 9-4-1 overall, 5-0 after a non-cover, 5-2 on the road and 7-3 inside the AFC.
The under for Buffalo is on several rolls, including 4-1 overall, 5-0 after a SU win, 5-1 at home and 5-2-1 against winning teams, and the under for Houston is on runs of 9-4 overall (3-1 last four), 5-1 on the highway, 7-2 against the AFC and 6-2 coming off a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
San Francisco (3-3, 4-1-1 ATS) at Indianapolis (6-0, 5-1 ATS)
The streaking Colts aim to remain unbeaten on the season when they play host to the 49ers at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis pounded St. Louis 42-6 Sunday as a hefty 14-point road favorite, the team’s 15th consecutive regular-season victory and fifth-straight spread-cover. QB Peyton Manning is engineering the league’s No. 1 passing attack, racking up 310.8 ypg through the air, and the Colts are averaging 402.5 total ypg (fourth) and 29.8 ppg (second). Defensively, Indy is allowing just 291.7 ypg (ninth) and a stifling 12.8 ppg, which is second in the NFL, behind only Denver’s 11.0 ppg.
San Francisco rallied from a 21-0 deficit at Houston last week, but came up just short in a 24-21 setback, getting a push as a three-point ‘dog. Former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith took over for starting QB Shaun Hill at halftime and threw three TDs to TE Vernon Davis to lead the charge. Coach Mike Singletary has decided to stick with Smith in the wake of the 49ers’ third loss in four games. In just 30 minutes of play, Smith went 15 of 22 for 206 yards, with one INT.
These two teams have met just twice this decade, with both going 1-1 SU and ATS and the road team rolling to victory each time. Most recently, Indy won 28-3 as a 16½-point favorite in October 2005.
The Colts are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six laying more than 10 at home, but along with their current 5-0 ATS surge, they are on pointspread upturns of 4-0 laying points, 4-0 after a spread-cover and 8-3 against the NFC. The 49ers remain on positive ATS streaks of 4-1-2 overall, 4-0-1 as a road pup, 5-1-1 against winning teams and 5-1-1 after a SU loss, but they are on a 4-9 ATS dive as a ‘dog of more than 10 points, and they are in a 5-17 ATS funk in non-division roadies.
The under is 10-4 in Indianapolis’ last 14 November outings, but the over is on a 4-1 run with the Colts favored by more than 10 points, and the total has gone high in four of San Fran’s last five November starts and seven of its last 10 games following a pointspread defeat.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Miami (2-4 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Jets (4-3 SU and ATS)
Three weeks after squaring off at Land Shark Stadium, the Jets and Dolphins will collide again in a meeting of AFC East rivals at the Meadowlands.
New York blasted hapless Oakland 38-0 Sunday as a six-point road favorite to get its season back on track, rolling up an eye-popping 316 rushing yards while halting a three-game SU and ATS slide. With rookie QB Mark Sanchez still learning his way, the Jets’ defense and running game have been the key this year. New York is allowing just 14.9 ppg (fourth) and 297.6 ypg (10th), and the Jets lead the league with 184.9 ypg rushing.
Miami jumped out to a 24-3 second-quarter lead against New Orleans, then gave it all away and more in losing 46-34 as a six-point home pup Sunday. Despite the stunning collapse, the Dolphins continue to boast the league’s second-best rushing attack, churning out 170.3 ypg, and they are 11th in scoring (24.3 ppg), though they’re giving up a tick more at 25.3 ppg.
On Monday night football Oct. 12, Miami won a shootout 31-27 as a three-point home pup in a contest that featured 35 fourth-quarter points (21 from Miami). The Dolphins have won and cashed in the last two meetings, but New York has otherwise owned this rivalry lately, carrying ATS hot streaks of 20-6-2 overall and 7-2-2 at home. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings, as is the road team.
The Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a spread-cover and 7-3 in their last 10 after a SU win, but they are on negative ATS streaks of 5-13-1 against losing teams, 2-7 as a chalk, 1-4 laying points at home, 1-5 giving 3½ to 10 points and 1-4 in division play. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have covered in just two of their last seven starts and are on further ATS skids of 0-4 in November, 1-5 as a ‘dog and 1-6 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points. But Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last seven division outings (4-0 ATS last four) and 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a road ‘dog.
The under for New York is on stretches of 4-1 after a SU win, 12-5 after a spread-cover and 18-8 with the Jets laying 3½ to 10 points at home. The over has hit in four of Miami’s last five games, but the under is on runs for the Dolphins of 8-1 in November, 6-1 on the highway and 5-0 with the squad a road pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
St. Louis (0-7, 2-5 ATS) at Detroit (1-5, 2-4 ATS)
Two of the worst teams over the past two seasons get together when the winless Rams travel to Ford Field to take on the Lions.
St. Louis got hammered by Indianapolis 42-6 last week as a 14-point home underdog for its 17th consecutive SU loss (6-11 ATS), dating back to its shocking 34-14 rout over Dallas as a nine-point home pup on Oct. 19, 2008. The Rams are dead last in scoring, at a meager 8.6 ppg, and 26th in total yards (277.0), while their defense is allowing 385.4 ypg (30th) and 30.1 ppg (29th).
Detroit, coming off its bye week, got blanked at Green Bay 26-0 two Sundays ago and hasn’t been any better than the Rams, winning just once since the second-to-last week of the 2007 season (1-22 SU, 9-14 ATS). The Lions average 293.2 ypg (25th) and just 17.2 ppg (23rd), while the defense is second-to-last in points allowed (31.3 ppg) and 26th in total yards allowed (370.8).
Lions rookie QB Matthew Stafford (knee), who missed the past two games, has practiced this week, but his status is still not certain for Sunday.
St. Louis is 2-1 SU and ATS in its last three meetings with Detroit, including a 41-34 home victory giving 5½ points in October 2006, the most recent contest.
The Rams are on a 9-4 ATS run against losing teams, but the rest of their pointspread streaks tumble downhill, including 1-4 overall, 1-5 in November and a pair of 24-50-1 plunges – following a SU loss and following an ATS setback. The Lions are on identical 3-9 ATS purges at Ford Field and in November, though they are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a non-cover and 4-1 ATS in their last five coming off the bye week.
St. Louis is on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 after a SU loss and 6-2-1 after a double-digit home setback, and the over for Detroit is on rolls of 19-8-1 overall, 6-0 in November and 7-1 against losing teams. However, the total has gone low in the Lions’ last five following the bye and four of their last five at Ford Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Seattle (2-4 SU and ATS) at Dallas (4-2, 3-3 ATS)
The Cowboys, looking to extend a modest two-game winning streak, remain at home for the second straight week when they play host to the inconsistent Seahawks.
Dallas topped Atlanta 37-21 Sunday giving 5½ points at the new Cowboys Stadium, ending a two-game ATS hiccup in the process. QB Tony Romo leads an offense that is racking up a whopping 419.3 ypg, second only to the Saints (427.3), passing for 266 ypg (ninth), and the Cowboys sport the league’s fourth-best running attack, at 153.3 ypg.
Seattle, which had a bye last week, followed a 41-0 blowout home win over Jacksonville with a 27-3 home loss to Arizona two Sundays ago as a three-point favorite. The Seahawks are in the top half of the league defensively, allowing 319.7 ypg (12th) and just 18.2 ppg (seventh), but their up-and-down offense is averaging just 12.3 ppg in the four losses and 34.5 ppg in the two wins.
Dallas has cashed in the last four clashes in this rivalry (2-2 SU), including a 34-9 beatdown last November at home as a hefty 11½-point chalk. That said, the underdog and the road team have both gone 4-1 ATS in the last five contests.
The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after a pointspread win, but from there, they are on pointspread rolls of 10-2 in November, 7-2 against the NFC and 6-2 at home, and they are also on a 9-2 ATS run as a non-division home favorite. The Seahawks are stuck in pointspread ruts of 1-4 overall, 1-4 on the highway, 0-4 as a road pup and 2-6-1 against winning teams, and they are on a 9-22 ATS dive in non-division road games.
The over for Dallas is on tears of 6-2 overall, 4-1 after a SU win, 19-7-2 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against NFC foes, and the over is on a 23-11 streak with Seattle a road pup. The under for Seattle is on runs of 10-4-1 overall, 6-0 in November, 7-2-1 in conference action and 7-3 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone low in five of the last six meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
N.Y. Giants (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at Philadelphia (4-2 SU and ATS)
The suddenly struggling Giants aim to get back on track with a trip to Lincoln Financial Field for an NFC East showdown with the Eagles.
New York went off as a healthy nine-point home chalk Sunday night against Arizona, then lost 24-17 for its second consecutive SU and ATS setback following a 5-0 start (4-1 ATS). The Giants still sport the NFL’s sixth-best attack in both scoring (27.9 ppg) and total yards (391.3 ypg), and their defense leads the league in allowing just 262 total ypg, though New York is a middling 16th in points allowed (20.4 ppg).
Philadelphia bounced back from a shocking loss at Oakland to beat Washington 27-17 Monday night as a nine-point road favorite, moving to 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games. The Eagles are averaging 336.7 ypg, just 17th in the league, but they’re putting up points just the same, averaging 27.2 ppg (seventh). That stat is aided greatly by Philly’s plus-11 turnover margin, which is tops in the NFL.
The Eagles could be without star RB Brian Westbrook (concussion) this week.
These rivals met three times last season, with Philadelphia going 2-1 SU and ATS, including a 23-11 road victory as a four-point pup in the second round of the playoffs. New York has cashed on its last four trips to the Linc, the road team has also covered in four straight, and the underdog is on a 9-0 ATS tear.
The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five division starts, but they sport a bundle of positive ATS streaks, including 33-17-1 overall, 39-19-2 against the NFC, 16-5 against winning teams and 5-0 in November. In addition, New York is on road ATS sprees of 22-5 overall and 15-3 against teams with a winning home record.
The Eagles are also on several ATS upswings, including 10-4 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 in the division, 6-2 against NFC opponents and 5-2 versus winning teams, though they’ve cashed in just one of their last six home division tilts.
The over for Philadelphia is on runs of 6-1 overall, 6-0-1 at home, 5-0 against the NFC and 25-11-1 against winning teams. The over is also 4-1-1 in New York’s last six November starts, but the under is 8-3 for the Giants in their last 11 following a SU loss, and in this rivalry, the total has gone low in five of the last six clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Oakland (2-5, 3-4 ATS) at San Diego (3-3, 2-4 ATS)
The Chargers, who figured to be a lock in the AFC West but now find themselves playing from behind, hook up with the Raiders for the second time this year when these longtime division rivals meet at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Diego pasted Kansas City 37-7 last week as a 5½-point road favorite to end a two-game SU and ATS skid. Scoring hasn’t been a problem this season for the Chargers, who are tied for eighth in the league at 26.8 ppg, and they field the fourth-best passing attack (281.3 ypg). But their running game behind LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles has been surprisingly abysmal, at just 70.5 ypg, the second-worst total in the NFL.
Oakland, coming off a stunning home upset of Philadelphia, quickly returned to form in a 38-0 blowout loss to the Jets as a six-point home underdog Sunday. QB JaMarcus Russell threw two INTs and lost a fumble before getting benched in the first half, and he now has two TD passes more than offset by 13 turnovers (8 INTs, five fumbles) The Raiders are 30th in the league with a minus-10 turnover margin.
Oakland nearly pulled off the upset against San Diego in Week 1, coming up short 24-20 but easily covering as a 10-point home ‘dog to end a 4-0 SU and ATS run by the Chargers in this rivalry. San Diego is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 clashes (5-1 ATS at home), and the favorite is on a 10-2 ATS roll.
The Chargers are on ATS dips of 2-5 overall (all against the AFC), 0-4 after a SU win, 3-8 as a chalk and 2-7 after a spread-cover, but they are 22-9-4 ATS in their last 35 AFC West contests and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 at Qualcomm. The Raiders are on a bundle of negative ATS streaks, including 1-4 overall (all as a pup), 4-9 as a double-digit road ‘dog and 21-43-1 following a pointspread loss. The surprising bright spot: Oakland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 division road affairs.
San Diego is on several “over” runs, including 5-1-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 5-1 after an ATS victory, 5-1-2 laying points and 5-1-1 against AFC opponents. On the flip side, Oakland is on “under” streaks of 5-0 in November, 4-1-1 in division play, 10-3-1 after a SU loss, 9-3-1 after an ATS setback and 7-3-1 against AFC foes. Also, in this rivalry, the under is 3-0-1 in the last four Qualcomm meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
Jacksonville (3-3 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (0-6, 1-5 ATS)
The shockingly winless Titans, who went 13-3 last year, will make a quarterback change in hopes of gaining their first victory when they face the Jaguars at LP Field.
Tennessee is coming off a much-needed bye week after taking the beatdown of a lifetime in a 59-0 loss in the snow at New England getting 9½ points. The Titans are giving up a league-worst 33 ppg and are 31st in total yards allowed (405.7 ypg), and they’re putting up an average of just 14 ppg (27th). That, along with some prompting from owner Bud Adams, led coach Jeff Fisher to yank QB Kerry Collins as the starter and put Vince Young under center this week.
Jacksonville, which also had its bye last week, held off winless St. Louis 23-20 in overtime two weeks ago to notch its third win in four games (2-2 ATS) and bounce back from a 41-0 shellacking at Seattle. The Jags are averaging a respectable 355.3 ypg (11th), yet they are just 21st in scoring at 20 ppg. Their defense isn’t helping much, yielding 360.8 ypg (23rd) and 24.5 ppg (24th).
These two teams met four weeks ago, with Jacksonville rolling 37-17 as a three-point home underdog to slow a 4-1 SU and ATS run by Tennessee in this rivalry. The Titans are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Nashville, and the underdog has cashed in five of the last six clashes between these two.
The Titans are on pointspread dives of 0-5 overall (all in the AFC), 0-5 in AFC South play, 0-5 laying points, 0-6 after a SU loss and 2-5 at LP Field, though they are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 as a home chalk of three points or less. The Jaguars are on ATS slides of 4-9 overall, 2-7 after a SU win, 2-5 following a non-cover and 3-8 against losing teams, but they are a robust 18-9-1 ATS in their last 28 starts as a road pup.
The over for Tennessee is on numerous surges, including 4-1 overall, 12-4-1 after a bye, 7-3 at home, 6-2 with the Titans a home chalk, 38-18-1 after a SU loss and 43-21-1 after an ATS defeat. The under has hit in five of Jacksonville’s last six roadies and six of the last seven with the Jags a road ‘dog, but the over for Jack Del Rio’s troops is on runs of 4-1 overall and 9-4-1 against losing teams.
Finally, the total has cleared the posted price in six of the last nine meetings in this rivalry, with last month’s contest sailing over the 42-point posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and OVER
Minnesota (6-1, 4-3 ATS) at Green Bay (4-2 SU and ATS)
Four weeks after the first Brett Favre grudge match, the Vikings and Packers get together again, this time at Lambeau Field for an NFC North showdown.
Minnesota suffered its first loss of the year last week, falling to Pittsburgh 27-17 after two costly fourth-quarter turnovers – a Brett Favre fumble and a tipped-ball INT – were returned for long TDs. The Vikes also fell short as six-point pups for their second straight ATS setback. That said, Minnesota is still third in the league in scoring, at 29.4 ppg, and though its defense is a middling 16th in yards allowed (330 ypg) and points allowed (21.1 ppg), the team’s plus-seven turnover margin rates fifth in the NFL.
Green Bay has won its last two games by a combined 57-3 total, pounding on underlings Detroit and Cleveland. Last Sunday, the Pack ripped the Browns 31-3 as a 9½-point road chalk in improving to 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games. Green Bay has a plus-10 turnover margin, second only to Philadelphia, which has helped it chalk up 26.8 ppg (tied for eighth) and 376.3 ypg (eighth).
Minnesota held off Green Bay 30-23 as a 4½-point home chalk in a Monday nighter on Oct. 5, ending a four-game ATS run (3-1 SU) by the Packers in this rivalry. The Vikings are 7-2 ATS on their last nine trips to Lambeau, the road team is on an 11-4 ATS run and the underdog is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 clashes.
The Vikings sport positive ATS streaks of 5-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 on the road, but they also shoulder negative pointspread trends of 1-6 against winning teams, 3-7 as a pup and 3-12-2 catching three points or less. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five following a spread-cover, but they also are on spread-covering runs of 8-2 in division action, 4-1 as a favorite and 7-3-1 in November.
The over has been the play for Minnesota, as it is on tears of 4-1 overall, 6-1 in November, 7-2 with the Vikings a road pup, 20-8-2 after an ATS loss and 33-16-3 after a SU defeat. Likewise, the over for Green Bay is on upswings of 21-9-1 overall, 15-6 with the Pack favored, 7-1 with the Packers laying three or less, 21-7-1 against the NFC and 11-5 at Lambeau.
Finally, the total has gone high in four of the last five overall in this rivalry, though the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Green Bay.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Carolina (2-4, 1-5 ATS) at Arizona (4-2 SU and ATS)
The defending NFC champion Cardinals look to push their winning streak to four games when they return home to University of Phoenix Stadium to face the struggling Panthers.
Arizona knocked off the Giants 24-17 as a heavy 7½-point underdog Sunday night, winning and covering for the third straight week. The Cardinals still field the NFL’s worst rushing attack, at just 60 ypg, but QB Kurt Warner has helped compensate for it by guiding the seventh-best passing game (269.5 ypg). Arizona also has the league’s seventh-stingiest scoring defense, yielding just 18.2 ppg.
Carolina had its modest two-game winning streak (1-1 ATS) snapped in a 20-9 loss to Buffalo as a seven-point home chalk. Coach John Fox is continuing to stick with beleaguered QB Jake Delhomme, who threw three INTs last week and now has 15 turnovers (13 INTs, two lost fumbles) against just four TDs for the season. That has the Panthers at a league-worst minus-14 turnover margin, with Carolina scoring just 15.7 ppg (25th).
These two teams met in the second round of the playoffs last January, with Arizona rolling 33-13 as a huge 10-point road ‘dog. That’s when Delhomme’s troubles really began, as he threw five INTs and lost a fumble in the blowout. The road team has cashed in the last four clashes between these two, and the underdog is on a 6-2 ATS run.
The Cardinals are on pointspread rolls of 9-2 overall, 4-0 against losing teams, 6-1 after both a SU win and after an ATS win, 10-4 as a favorite and 5-2 at home. Conversely, the Panthers are on ATS freefalls of 1-6 overall, 0-4 as a pup, 0-4 after a SU loss, 1-4 after a non-cover, 1-6 as a road pup and 2-7 in November.
The under has hit in four straight for Arizona and is 10-4 in Carolina’s last 14 November games. But the over for the Cards is on streaks of 12-4 at home, 6-2 in November, 19-7 after a SU win and 35-16 against losing teams, and the over for the Panthers is on stretches of 6-1 on the highway, 5-1 as an underdog and 10-3 against NFC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
WORLD SERIES
N.Y. Yankees (9-3) at Philadelphia (8-4)
Looking to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the best-of-7 World Series at Citizens Bank Park when they send ace CC Sabathia (22-9, 3.15) to the mound on three days’ rest. The Phillies have elected to hand the ball to Joe Blanton (12-8, 4.08), who will be making his second start of this postseason.
After getting drubbed 6-1 in Game 1, the Yankees bounced back with Thursday’s 3-1 victory in Game 2 followed by an 8-4 rout in Game 3 on Saturday. New York rallied from a 3-0 deficit, scoring two runs in the fourth inning, three in the fifth and single runs in the sixth, seventh and eighth to take 2-1 series lead. The game featured six home runs (three from each team), and Andy Pettitte got the win, allowing four runs on five hits while striking out seven in six innings.
New York, back in the Fall Classic for the first time since 2003, have won consecutive World Series games following a four-game losing streak on baseball’s marquee stage. The Yankees enter Game 4 on positive runs of 50-20 overall, 41-13 as a favorite, 12-4 as a road chalk, 7-1 against the N.L. East, 6-0 in interleague road games, 46-18 against right-handed starters and 46-21 on Sunday. However, while Joe Girardi’s team is 8-1 as a favorite in this postseason, it has dropped eight of its last 11 playoff road games and six of eight World Series roadies.
Philadelphia is still 19-7 since the beginning of last year’s run to the World Series title, including winning 11 of 13 playoff games at Citizens Bank Park. Additionally, the Phillies are on positive runs of 36-16 overall at home, 11-4 as an underdog, 17-8 as a home ‘dog, 5-2 as a playoff pup, 37-17 versus southpaw starters and 40-13 on Sunday. On the downside, Charlie Manuel’s squad has lost 11 of 15 interleague games (all versus the A.L. East) and seven straight interleague contests at home.
These teams have now split six meetings this year, with the first five games played in New York. Prior to this year, the Yankees had been 7-3 in interleague play against the Phillies going back to 1999. The visitor has won eight of the last 11 head-to-head matchups, with the Yankees going 5-1 in their last six at Citizens Bank Park.
Sabathia’s brilliant postseason continued in Game 1 on Wednesday, as he held the Phillies to two runs on four hits over seven innings, but both runs were Chase Utley sole homers and Sabathia got tagged with a 6-1 defeat in the Bronx. Despite that, he’s still 3-1 with a 1.52 ERA in four playoff starts, striking out 26 in 29 2/3 innings.
Eliminate an awful regular-season finale against Tampa Bay (nine runs, five earned, in 2 2/3 innings of a 13-4 loss) and Sabathia has delivered 14 consecutive quality starts while posting a 1.59 ERA (18 earned runs allowed in 102 innings). Even with the bad outing at Tampa, New York is 14-2 in Sabathia’s last 16 trips the hill, with all 14 victories being by multiple runs. Additionally, with the hefty lefty starting, the Yankees are on runs of 7-1 on the road and 10-2 against winning teams.
Sabathia is 13-6 with a 3.38 ERA in 20 road starts this year (New York is 13-7), including a 10-1 victory at the Angels in his only playoff start on the highway this fall. However, he’s now 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA in five career starts against the Phillies, with Philadelphia winning four of those games, including two this year against the Yankees and a 5-2 NLCS victory last year when Sabathia was pitching with the Brewers. The latter start with Milwaukee was Sabathia’s lone previous appearance at Citizens Bank Park.
Blanton hasn’t pitched since Oct. 19, when he faced the Dodgers in Game 4 of the NLCS, and he yielded four runs (three earned) on six hits in six innings at home. He was set to lose 4-3 before Philadelphia scored two runs with two outs in the ninth inning to steal a 5-4 victory. Blanton also made two appearances in the first round against Colorado, allowing a total of two runs in 3 2/3 innings, so he’s got a 4.66 ERA this postseason.
With Blanton starting, the Phillies are on positive runs of 4-1 overall, 8-2 at home and 9-0 when he works on Sunday. Including the playoff start against the Dodgers, the big right-hander is 7-4 with 3.86 ERA in 18 games (17 starts) at Citizens Bank Park. However, he’s 0-3 with a hefty 8.18 ERA in four career starts against New York (all when Blanton was pitching with Oakland). The Yankees won all four games by a combined score of 28-10.
The first five meetings between these teams this season had stayed under the total before last night’s home-run fest soared over the posted price. Still, the under is 4-2 in the last six clashes at Citizens Bank Park.
The Yankees are 3-0-1 “over” in their last four road games, but otherwise they’re on “under” rolls of 7-3-1 overall, 17-7 in interleague play, 16-7 versus the A.L. East, 7-2-1 as a playoff chalk, 16-6 in the World Series, 7-4 in World Series road games, 16-6-2 as a favorite, 8-2-2 against righty starters and 16-5-2 after a victory. However, with Sabathia on the hill, the over is on runs of 13-3 on the highway and 5-0 on Sunday.
Philadelphia still carries “over” trends of 19-6-2 overall, 7-2-1 in these playoffs, 4-0-1 at home, 9-1-1 after a defeat and 4-0 on Sunday. The over is also 3-0-1 in Blanton’s last four starts overall, but the under is 9-4-1 in his last 14 home efforts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Rocketman
Denver @ Baltimore
Play: Baltimore -3.5
Why in the world is a 6-0 team getting points from a 3-3 team? Baltimore is scoring 28.2 points per game overall and 28.7 points per game at home this year. Baltimore is allowing only 14.7 points per game at home this year. Baltimore is 5-1 ATS overall vs Denver since 1992. Baltimore is 3-0 SU and ATS at home vs Denver since 1992. Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 8. Broncos are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 8. Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Ravens are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Ravens are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Ravens are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week. Ravens are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. AFC. Ravens are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games on grass. Ravens are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall. Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Ravens are 39-16-1 ATS in their last 56 games as a home favorite. Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Baltimore today!
Steve Merril
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills
PICK: Under 41.5
Buffalo is a bad offensive team and their back-to-back underdog wins the past two weeks has been misleading as the Bills benefited from a +8 turnover margin and 10 forced turnovers. Overall, Buffalo is averaging just 16.1 points per game and only 4.8 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allow 22.0 ppg and 5.5 yppl). It is unlikely that Buffalo can take advantage of a weak Houston defense today, especially with starting QB Trent Edwards still injured.
Houston is a solid offensive team, but they are one-dimensional as they throw for 78% of their total yards. This is a good matchup for the Buffalo defense as the Bills have been terrible against the run, but strong against the pass this season. Buffalo allows 172 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry (versus opponents that average just 136 yards and 4.5 ypr), but Houston is unlikely to take advantage as the Texans gain just 79 yards per game on the ground and only 3.0 yards per carry (versus opponents that allow 103 yards and 3.8 ypr). Buffalo has a strong secondary that is permitting just 5.4 yards per pass (versus opponents that average 6.1 ypp), so they matchup well versus Houston’s pass happy attack.
Sal Michaels
Oakland Raiders vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: San Diego Chargers -16½
The Oakland Raiders enter San Diego in the usual Raiders way, in disarray. The Raiders enter San Diego off another beat down to the hands of the Jets at home. The Chargers rebounded nicely at Kansas City with a 37-7 win after a MNF loss at home the previous week against the Denver Broncos. Even after their 30-point win over the Chiefs, the Chargers are still only 3-3 and they look to add on to their win total with another blowout at the hands of the hapless Raiders. I expect a blowout with a margin of victory of 17+ points. I also have three situations and angles that favor that Chargers that have a combined winning percentage of 78% in over 70 occurrences and are 5-2-1 combined so far this season. Give the points with the Chargers.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Green Bay Packers -3
I know Brett Favre would like to waltz into Lambeau and have his ultimate revenge by sticking it to his former team on his former home field, but that will be no easy task Sunday. The Packers want this game bad, especially after going down in Minnesota, and I'm expecting an inspired effort. The Packers were able to shut down the Vikings running game in the first meeting, holding the Vikes to just 82 yards rushing, but Favre played near-perfect football to have his revenge. Don't expect Favre to be as good today with even more emotions to deal with heading back to the place he called home for so many years. The Vikings are an awful 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 3.0 points or less. Also, plays on any team revenging a same season loss against an opponent, with a winning record on the season, playing another winning team, are 46-19 ATS the last 5 seasons. I'll go with history on this one as the Packers have their revenge.
SPORTSWAGERS
NY Giants –1 over PHILADELPHIA
Based on talent and situation the G-Men should absolutely bury this rival. In terms of this line, the best thing that could’ve happened last week did, as the Giants lost at home to the Cardinals while the Eagles built a 20-point half-time lead over the Skins en route to a rather easy 13-point victory. That win combined with the Giants loss has these two battling for first place in the NFC East but in terms of talent, they’re not close and it’s not in the Eagle favor. Philly has played one quality opponent this season and was flattened 48-22 by the Saints. It’s other games came against a bunch of compete dregs (Carolina, K.C., Cleveland, Oakland and Washington) and after watching them perform against Washington on Monday night I can now understand how they lost to Oakland. Donovan McNab looks awful, as he keeps missing open receivers with brutal throws but he and the teams poor play has been masked by a 4-2 record against some bad opposition. In fact, on Monday night the Eagles scored three TD’s but they were all lucky, as one was a pick-6, one was a 70-yard run and the other was a 52-yard bomb. The Eagles had great field position all night yet they did not run a single play inside the red-zone because they could not get there against a bad, bad football team. The Giants are livid and hungry after consecutive losses. They, too, were crushed by New Orleans but unlike the Eagles, they beat Oakland 44-7. Philly does not have a quality win this season and based on their play it’s unlikely they’ll get one, as the Eagles are the most overrated team in the business and will be exposed as another bad football team here. Play: NY Giants –1 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
JACKSONVILLE/Tennessee under 45
If you’re a regular reader of this section than you know I’m not a totals guy but frankly, this line looks so out of whack that it has to be considered a must play. Jeff Fisher’s hand is forced in that after opening the year 0-6 and with no shot at making the playoffs, Fisher has been pressured into switching QB’s and he has obliged. Enter Vince Young with his fragile mind and limited talents. Fisher will be running the ball all game, as it’s extremely unlikely that he’ll let Young go to the air much at all. He’ll use his power running game and will throw only when absolutely necessary. The Jags main weapon is also the run, as Maurice Drew Jones is the guy they keep handing the ball over to and he keeps delivering. These two are bitter rivals and Fisher knows that his only chance of a win is to play great defense and the Titans are very capable of that. Sure, both defenses are ranked near the bottom, however, stats can be misleading. The Titans have played Indy, New England, Houston and Pittsburgh and that quartet is capable of shredding anyone. The Jags have encountered Arizona, Indy, Seattle and Houston and those are four can score as well. This total is based on the poor defensive rankings of both sides. Thing is, both have been poor vs the pass and this game will be anything but an aerial attack. Also, these two met a few weeks back and the Jags crushed the Titans 37-17. The Titans threw the ball 48 times that day and got blown out, which is more reason to believe that Fisher will stick to the ground game. In a rare total play, this one stays way, way under. Play: Jacksonville/Tennessee under 45 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).
Jacksonville +1.40 over TENNESSEE
I’m not really a big fan of playing the side and total in the same game but after mulling over this one I just can’t pass it up. This one doesn’t need a lot of explanation. The bottom line is we’re getting points against Vince Young and that’s all there is to it. This guy has been sitting and pouting on the bench for over a year, nobody on the team sees him as a leader, especially after he went ape-shit after being benched last season. The only reason he’s even on the bench is because the Titans are paying him a hefty salary and next year it goes up to 14.2M. In fact, Fisher didn’t even want to start VY but the owner of the team, Bud Adams, forced Fisher to make the change. Fisher let the quarterbacks know the forced decision on Thursday and VY took all the first-team snaps. This is an 0-6 team that is coming off a bye week and one has to wonder if the players even want to come back. They have no leader, no wins and no motivation. The Jags beat them earlier 37-17 and that’s when the Titans were not out of it yet. This game is now in Tennessee but the result could be even worse. Keep the points. Play: Jacksonville +1.40 (Risking 2 units).
JIM FEIST
NEW YORK GIANTS / PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
TAKE UNDER
The (5-2 SU/ATS) NY Giants are riding a 0-2 SU/ATS skid, despite the No. 1 ranked defense and a balanced offense ranked 8th. The Saints shredded them, a 48-27 defeat, as the Saints had 34 points and 315 yards by halftime. They came home Sunday night and looked flat in a 24-17 home loss to the Cardinals, with 4 turnovers (3 picks by Manning). "This was a game we should have won," said defensive end Osi Umenyiora. "I just don't understand." The offense looks to run first behind a strong offensive line, led by RB Brandon Jacobs and QB Eli Manning (13 TDs, 5 INTs). Manning has a bruised right heel and threw for just 178 yards with 1 TD and 1 pick against the Saints, so that.5?s 4 picks the last 2 games. They.5?ve had a soft schedule and did allow 31 points at Dallas and 48 Sunday, so this game offers another good test to this defense. The Eagles.5? defense ranks No. 4 in the NFL. Philadelphia (4-2 SU/ATS) is a strong all around team, and QB Donovan McNabb (6 TDs, 1 pick) is back from a rib injury. He runs an offense ranked 14th, but 27 points per game, while the aggressive defense has been great under new defensive coordinator Sean McDermott. The bye week was good to rest McNabb, plus RB Brian Westbrook, who also sat out the previous game with a knee injury. Philadelphia revamped its offensive line, acquiring two-time Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters from Buffalo to replace longtime starter Tra Thomas. They come off an impressive win at Washington, with over 120 yards rushing. Two strong defenses here, we'll go with the UNDER in a hard fought contest.
DAVE COKIN
CAROLINA PANTHERS / ARIZONA CARDINALS
TAKE: CAROLINA PANTHERS
It's been the year of the big chalk in the NFL, with the power teams simply crushing the weaklings on a weekly basis. In other words, this season has been an aberration in that laying double digits has not been a bad thing. It's tough to make a case for any big dogs right now. Nevertheless, I'm going to try to do just that in the Panthers-Cardinals contest.
There's no question Arizona is the better team here. Carolina has had trouble mounting a consistent attack and their QB play has been abysmal. The Panthers had a chance to get to .500 last week hosting Buffalo, and they laid another egg en route to a 20-9 loss. So it's safe to say I'm not making much of an argument to support the Panthers here.
My stance is more anti-Arizona. The Cardinals are in a flat spot and even in this year of the monster favorites going wild, we're still seeing the occasional dead effort that results in an upset or a close call. I see that happening here. The Cardinals can relax a little, as they've moved back into first place in their division. They're off an absolutely huge win on the road in the Sunday night hookup with the Giants. Fact is, Arizona has been superb on the road, but they've been less than stellar at home.
Revenge is not a huge factor in pro sports. It's not nearly the motivator that it is at the college level. But it's not a negative even in the NFL, and this could be one of those rare spots where it really does make a difference. The Panthers, and QB Jake Delhomme in particular, were humiliated in the playoffs last season by the Cardinals. They got blasted at home as Arizona kicked off its improbable run to the Super Bowl, and I have to believe this is a game the Panthers really want.
The oddsmakers opened Arizona as 7' point favorites and the number has reached double figures as this is written. Under the circumstances, that's an inviting number to me, so I'm backing Carolina with the points for the free NFL opinion.