Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 13

DUNKEL INDEX

Rider at Pittsburgh
The Broncs look to build on their 16-5 ATS record in their last 21 games as a road underdog. Rider is the pick (+21 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by only 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Rider (+21 1/2)

Game 541-542: WI-Green Bay at Duquesne (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 53.047; Duquesne 66.057
Dunkel Line: Duquesne by 13
Vegas Line: Duquesne by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duquesne (-11 1/2)

Game 543-544: Cleveland State at Vanderbilt (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 57.485; Vanderbilt 70.856
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (+15 1/2)

Game 545-546: Middle Tennessee State at Loyola-Marymount (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 53.861; Loyola-Marymount 55.918
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Marymount by 2
Vegas Line: Loyola-Marymount by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+3 1/2)

Game 547-548: UC-Riverside at UTEP (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Riverside 50.949; UTEP 62.708
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 12
Vegas Line: UTEP by 9
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (-9)

Game 549-550: Bowling Green at Georgia (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 49.318; Georgia 68.750
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgia by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-11 1/2)

Game 551-552: Ball State at Arizona (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 57.686; Arizona 67.629
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 10
Vegas Line: Arizona by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+13 1/2)

Game 553-554: NC-Wilmington at Maryland (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Wilmington 49.191; Maryland 66.405
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 17
Vegas Line: Maryland by 14
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-14)

Game 555-556: George Washington at California (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 54.737; California 64.929
Dunkel Line: California by 10
Vegas Line: California by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: George Washington (+12 1/2)

Game 557-558: Bryant vs. Southern Utah (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bryant 41.555; Southern Utah 47.740
Dunkel Line: Southern Utah by 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 559-560: UC-Davis at San Diego State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Davis 48.707; San Diego State 68.427
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 20
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 561-562: North Dakota State vs. Northern Arizona (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 54.229; Northern Arizona 53.861
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 563-564: UL-Lafayette at San Francisco (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 55.777; San Francisco 59.641
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 565-566: Georgia State vs. Portland (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 50.082; Portland 59.719
Dunkel Line: Portland by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 567-568: Florida Atlantic at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 49.517; Washington 73.323
Dunkel Line: Washington by 24
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 569-570: Rider at Pittsburgh (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 54.943; Pittsburgh 73.409
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 21 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rider (+21 1/2)

Game 571-572: Canisius at James Madison (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 49.796; James Madison 62.241
Dunkel Line: James Madison by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: James Madison by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: James Madison (-10 1/2)

Game 573-574: Tennessee-Martin at Ohio (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 45.140; Ohio 59.571
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee-Martin (+16 1/2)

Game 575-576: Jacksonville State at Marshall (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville State 42.742; Marshall 65.485
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Marshall by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-20 1/2)

Game 577-578: Chattanooga at Indiana (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 48.457; Indiana 60.509
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 12
Vegas Line: Indiana by 15
Dunkel Pick: Chattanooga (+15)

Game 579-580: Morehead State at NC State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 57.112; NC State 68.470
Dunkel Line: NC State by 11
Vegas Line: NC State by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC State (-10 1/2)

Game 591-592: North Carolina at NC-Asheville (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 73.039; NC-Asheville 59.543
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC-Asheville (+16 1/2)

NHL

Minnesota at Anaheim
The Ducks look to build on their 23-11 record in their last 34 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Anaheim is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-135)

Game 1-2: Philadelphia at Florida (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.273; Florida 11.731
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+105); Under

Game 3-4: Edmonton at Chicago (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.314; Chicago 21.333
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-170); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-170); Over

Game 5-6: Minnesota at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.225; Anaheim 11.189
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-135); Over

Game 7-8: NY Islanders at Vancouver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 10.489; Vancouver 11.480
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-210); Under

Hollywood Sports

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts

If the Colts (0-9) are going to avoid the infamy of joining the Detroit Lions as the only team to spend entire sixteen-game season winless, they better bring the closest thing they have to an "A-Game" when hosting the Jaguars. This proud franchise is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games when an underdog of three points or less. The Jaguars (2-6) have not shown the ability to be very competitive when on the road this season where they have lost all four of their contests by an average margin of -12.2 PPG. Indy's Curtis Painter may very well be the better quarterback for this game when facing rookie Blaine Gabbert who is averaging a meager 96.5 passing YPG when on the road. Overall, the Jags are scoring only 10.0 PPG along with averaging 210.8 total YPG when away from home -- and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Some may argue that Maurice Jones-Drew will be able to run against the suspect run defense of the Colts. But Jacksonville managed only 84 yards on the ground last week in their 24-14 loss at Houston -- and they have failed to cover the spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards. The Jags are just 1-4-1 ATS after failing to score more than 14 points in their last age. The Texans totaled 356 yards of offense last week -- and the Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Take the points with the Colts in what may be the best opportunity for them to earn a true victory.

Marc Lawrence

Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Washington Redskins

The Fish fell off the Suck-for-Luck bandwagon with a wire-to-wire win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead last week and return home happy as a mackerel. Forget the fact they suck at home under Tony Sparano where they are 10-18 SU and 7-21 ATS overall, including 2-11 ATS as favorites. Not even a seven-game home losing skid, or a 10-31 ATS mark at home in games off a SU dog win (3-16 ATS versus sub .500 opposition), can wipe the smile off their faces. Meanwhile, there is no joy in Hog heaven these days where the visitors enter on a 0-4 SU and ATS losing skein. The good news for Washington is that head coach Mike Shanahan has never lost five consecutive games in the NFL, going 3-0 SU and ATS in games when riding a four-game losing skid. Toss in Shanahan's mind-blowing 13-0-1 ATS career mark as a road dog in games in which his team owns a win percentage of .400 or less and you can understand why we won't be swimming with the Dolphins today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.

Matt Fargo

Houston Texans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Houston is finally living up to its expectations, at least so far. Thanks to the Indianapolis tumble, the Texans are sitting in first place in the AFC South with a game and a half lead over Tennessee. They have had the luxury of playing the second easiest schedule in the NFL this season and taking a look at their wins will tell you that. The only quality win was against Pittsburgh and their last three wins have come against Cleveland, Jacksonville and Tennessee, nothing to write home about. Tampa Bay lost the second meeting this season with New Orleans to drop a game and a half behind the Saints in the NFC South. A win here and a win by Atlanta, which hosts New Orleans, would leave the Buccaneers just a half-game out of first place which makes this a big game. Making it even bigger is the fact that they have a game in Green Bay next week so instead of a lookahead to next week, they are treating this game as a must win following consecutive losses to Chicago and New Orleans. Offensively, the Buccaneers have been very inconsistent. They are averaging only 18.4 ppg and while Josh Freeman is taking the blame, he hasn't been that bad. Yes he has thrown more interceptions this year than he did all of last year but his completion percentage is up and he's on pace to throw for more than 4,000 yards. One of the biggest turnarounds has been the Houston defense but take away its last road game against Tennessee, and it previous two road games allowed 402 and 454 total yards. The big news in Tampa Bay this week was the signing of Albert Haynesworth to try and help its defense with the season ending loss of Gerald McCoy. While he has shown very little since signing his big contract, this could be a good fit as the Buccaneers are hoping they can plug him into a 4-3 defensive scheme better suited to his skills. Houston has the league’s second-ranked rushing offense, averaging 155.1 ypg after running for a club record 261 yards against Cleveland last week. The 4-3 for Tampa Bay will help. Houston is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games following a win and 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games following a home win. You would think the Texans would flourish against below average defenses but they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against defenses allowing 375 or more total yards. Also, we play against road favorites that are outrushing their opponents by 40 or more ypg, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 37-14 ATS (72.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 3* Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Wunderdog

Titans vs. Panthers
Play: Over 46

Cam Newton makes some rookie mistakes, but he has also been the main catalyst in transforming an offense that generated 12.2 points per game a year ago on 258 yards per game into a top-five offense this season - one that generates 414 yards and 23.4 points per game. So why are the Panthers just 2-6? The one thing Cam doesn't do is play defense. So, despite the quantum leap forward on offense Carolina has taken a big step back on defense as they’re allowing 25.9 points per game. The Tennessee defense ranks in the bottom half of the league so expect Newton and company to fill the scoreboard once again in this one. Despite the fact that the Titans’ offense is below average, they will face little resistance here. Tennessee has gone 14-6 to the OVER in their last 20 vs. a losing team and 14-5-1 to the OVER in their last 20 following a bye week. The Titans are also 9-2 OVER the past two seasons when facing good offensive teams (those averaging 350+ yards per game). Points should be plentiful in this one, so the OVER is the call.

TEDDY COVERS

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars -3

The Colts defense has created a grand total of one turnover in their last six games. It makes sense. Indy is still playing their conservative Cover-2 scheme defensively, without any playmakers in their secondary. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis aren’t forcing much pressure on opposing QB’s this year. So, basically, the Colts are conceding the short pass on every play. That’s why they’ve allowed 120 points over the last three weeks, against teams that spent extended stretches of every second half trying to run clock, not score points.

The Colts offense, on the other hand, is losing turnovers every week. Again, it makes perfect sense. Indy has been forced to play from behind – they’ve got to take chances throwing downfield. The Colts have an inexperienced QB who’s going through some rough growing pains. Curtis Painter has thrown at least one interception in each of the last four weeks. And frankly, the Colts gameday intensity is not where it needs to be; hence all the lost fumbles. A tenth straight game without a much needed bye week isn’t likely to help matters.

Jacksonville is no juggernaut, but it’s worth noting how big of a step down in class this is for the Jaguars. Over their last four games, Jack Del Rio’s squad has played Houston, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cinci; all with significantly better than average stop units. Prior to that, the Jags had matched up against the Saints and Jets, also playoff contenders. Now a focused Jacksonville team with extra time for rookie Blaine Gabbart to prepare coming off their bye can tee off against this bottom feeder, winning this game by margin. Take the Jaguars.

Scott Rickenbach

Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles
PICK: Philadelphia Eagles -14

The Eagles are off of Monday night's frustrating loss to the Bears. It's bounce back time here and Philadelphia is hosting the perfect team to absolutely dominate! Arizona is off of a win last Sunday but they played the cellar-dwelling Rams. This week the Cardinals face an Eagles team that can't wait to get rid of the bad taste of losing to Chicago. The Cards had lost six straight games before beating St Louis and note that two of their last three losses have come by margins of 12 and 24 points. As for the Eagles, they had turned their season around with big wins over the Redskins and Cowboys before they fell flat on Monday night. Note that Philly is on a long-term 29-13 ATS run against teams from the NFC West. Additionally, the Eagles are hosting a Cardinals team that is 3-8 ATS the last three seasons when they are off of a divisional game. Another huge loss gets laid on the Cardinals here as they are simply in the wrong place at the wrong time! Consider a small play on Philadelphia minus the big points on Sunday.

Stephen Nover

Buffalo Bills @ Dallas Cowboys
PICK: Buffalo Bills

Buffalo is 3-0-1 ATS when taking points this season. The Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven November games. Dallas has failed to cover eight of the past 10 times it has been home chalk. The Cowboys are 2-10-1 ATS the past 13 times they've been favored either home or away.

So the trends, angles and history clearly favor Buffalo. What about the matchup, though?

The Bills are averaging 27.8 points. No team in the AFC is averaging more. Only once have the Bills failed to produce at least 20 points.

The Cowboys have surrendered an average of 200 yards on the ground during the past two weeks. Fred Jackson is the AFC's top rusher. The Cowboys' secondary is down a key player with cornerback Mike Jenkins out. It's another plus for Buffalo if linebacker Sean Lee has to miss another game for Dallas after sitting out last week with a wrist injury.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is at his best on carpet in a temperature controlled climate where his weak arm isn't exposed by any possible bad weather elements. The Cowboys don't have enough depth in the secondary to stop Fitzpatrick's short passing-spread out style attack.

The Bills have a bend-but-don't-break type of defense. They give up lots of yardage, but also lead the AFC with 15 interceptions. The Cowboys pick up lots of yardage, but have trouble converting in the Red Zone. Tony Romo is turnover prone. Because of that, Dallas has become very conservative in the Red Zone settling for field goals instead of being aggressive. That's important when taking close to a touchdown against the Cowboys.

The Cowboys' attack isn't at full strength either. Miles Austin, their most dependable wide receiver, is out and Felix Jones isn't expected to play either.

The Bills are 1-2 away from home. Their two losses were by three points each to the Bengals and Giants, teams with much better records than the Cowboys. The Bills also are used to playing on carpet.

I am 6-1 on my NFL free selections this season, including cashing an easy winner last week on underdog Miami, which defeated Kansas City straight-up.

Steve Janus

Pittsburgh Steelers -3

The Bengals have surprised everyone with their 6-2 start to the season, but I don't think the magic is going to hold up over the second half. The Bengals have played an incredibly easy schedule up to this point. Their only win against a team who currently has a winning record is a 23-20 home win over Buffalo, a game in which they trailed by 14 points.

The Steelers are going to be one pissed off bunch after suffering their second loss of the season to the Baltimore Ravens. Earlier this season the Steelers responded from a loss to Baltimore by coming out the next week and beating the Seahawks 24-0. Expect a similar result in this one, as the Bengals just don't match up in talent.

Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.

Carlo Campanella

Baltimore Ravens vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Baltimore Ravens -6½

Baltimore improved to 6-2 after winning a key game on Sunday Night Football at Pittsburgh, 23-20. Not only did they sweep Pittsburgh, beating them 35-7 earlier this season, but that victory moved them to 1st place in the AFC North. However, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are both within one game of the title. With the Division race still tight, Baltimore won't disappoint this Sunday against an over-matched Seattle squad (2-6) that's struggled on offense, averaging just 15.2 points per game behind a weak running attack that's averaging only 88 yards per game. That matches up extremely well for this stingy Ravens defense, who has held opponents to just 87 yards rushing per game and 16.2 points per game. In fact, Baltimore is 3-1 SU & ATS this season when they hold their opponent to 99 yards rushing or less, winning those games by an average of 16.5 points per game. With the Division race tight and the Ravens defense in a perfect Situation, we're willing to lay the points with road-favored Baltimore, who is 18-6 ATS as favorites vs. non-division opponents under Head Coach John Harbaugh.

Jack Jones

Houston Texans -3½

The Houston Texans are the real deal this season. This team is on a mission to make the playoffs for the first time in team history. That's why I don't see them having any sort of letdown this week against the overrated Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Houston is 6-3 on the season, outscoring opponents 26.2 to 17.4. They rank 8th in the league in total offense (393.6 yards/game). What has held this team back in year's past is a defense that could not stop anybody. That is the case no longer as their numerous moves to improve their stop unit over the last few seasons are starting to pay major dividends. Houston ranks 1st in the league in total defense (274.0 yards/game).

The Bucs are 4-4 on the season and lucky to be .500. They are getting outscored 18.4 to 24.5 on the year. Tampa ranks 15th in total offense (343.2 yards/game) and a woeful 28th in total defense (398.9 yards/game). Given these numbers alone, the Bucs should be a bigger underdog Sunday.

This is an excellent match-up for the Texans simply because they can run the football very well, while Tampa Bay cannot stop the run. Houston ranks 3rd in the league in rushing (155.1 yards/game) while averaging 4.5/carry. Tampa ranks 25th in the NFL in run defense (132.4 yards/game), and they are yielding a whopping 4.9/carry.

The Texans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Bucs are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games. Tampa is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog, including 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a home dog of 7.0 points or less. Bet Houston Sunday.

Chip Chirimbes

Houston Texans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3½

Can this all be Wade Phillips? The Texans who were 30th in the NFL in total defense last year are now number 1 under new defensive coordinator Phillips. With a strong running game led by Adian Foster and Ben Tate Houston is controlling the ball and the clock and are allowing only 274 yards per game. The Texans defense has on the field and NFL low 26:17 minutes per game. Still the Buccaneers have defeated the Saints and Falcons at home and will surprise Houston Here.

Larry Ness

Arizona Cardinals vs Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles

That “Dream Team” moniker is haunting the Eagles much as it did the Miami Heat. Of course, the Heat actually made it all the way to the NBA finals before ‘flaming out,’ while the Eagles are seemingly ‘light years’ away from qualifying for the NFL postseason or at this point, even finishing with a winning record. Just when the Eagles had seemingly “righted the ship” with victories over division rivals Washington and Dallas (a dominating 34-7 SNF win), Philadelphia got beat at home 30-24 this past Monday night by the Bears. It was a HUGE setback for the team, as the Eagles are now 3-5, three full games behind the division-leading Giants, not to mention trailing possible wild card qualifiers Detroit (6-2), Atlanta (5-3), Chicago (5-3), Dallas (4-4) and Tampa Bay (4-4). Clearly considered one of the preseason favorites to reach the Super Bowl, Philadelphia now needs a near-perfect second half of 2011, just to even ‘sniff’ the playoffs. History is not on Philadelphia’s side, as since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978, the Eagles have been 3-5 after eight games five previous times, failing to reach the postseason each year. "It's not early anymore, it's getting late," tight end Brent Celek said. "We're halfway through the season and we have a terrible record. In all reality, we have to go on a streak. It's that simple." The good news for Philly is that the 2-6 Cardinals visit Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday. Arizona snapped its six-game losing streak last Sunday when it blocked a potential game-winning FG as time expired in the fourth quarter and then Patrick Peterson returned a punt 99 yards for a TD in overtime. The Cardinals got the win with ex-Eagle QB Kevin Kolb on the sidelines recovering from a turf toe injury in his right foot. The Cards traded for Kolb right after the lock-out was settled, giving Philly a 2012 second-round draft pick plus Pro Bowl CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Kolb’s been a HUGE flop but he’s still a better option than John Skelton. Skelton completed 20 of 35 passes for 222 yards with a TD against the Rams but also was responsible for not one but TWO safeties in a four-minute stretch of the third quarter. This game features a matchup of the NFL’s top rushing team (Eagles average 172.3 YPG on 5.7 YPC) against one of its worst (Cards average 95.9 YPG on 4.0 YPC). That’s a bad matchup for the Cards, who have allowed 143.3 YPG on the ground in their four road games this year. Vick has had an uneven season but his ability to make plays at QB outshines Skelton’s talents “by a mile.” Yes, it’s a two-TD spread but I’d rather be ‘laying’ than ‘taking.’

SPORTS WAGERS

TAMPA BAY +153 over Houston

We reckon that the Texans have to be yeehawing about this season and their best start in franchise history. But let’s not forget that this Houston bunch was sitting at 3-3 before having the luxury of facing the feeble Titans, Jaguars and Browns. That inept trio is a combined 3-12 over past 15 and rank among the lowest scoring teams in the league. Conversely, the Bucs are battle tested having played the Saints twice, the Niners and the surging Bears in England over their past four. Let’s also not forget the Texans past pedigree of always getting off to strong starts and subsequently choking down the stretch when it counts most. Houston injuries, a soft schedule and Bucs home record of 3-1 warrants our top recommendation. Keep the points. Play: Tampa Bay +153 (Risking 2 units).

Denver +157 over KANSAS CITY

Don’t believe for a minute that the Chiefs dismantling at the hands of the previously winless Dolphins was an anomaly. Kansas City was living a charmed life with four-straight wins until their luck finally ran out and we expect more of the same as this season marches on. The Chiefs’ punchless offense has scored 131 points on the year, just a few more than the likes of Indy, Seattle and Washington. They’ve also given up a 24th ranked 201 points. Kansas City has been favored twice this season, losing both and being outscored 72-10 in those two games. The Broncos are now 2-1 under Tim Tebow and the short leash should be getting a bit longer now that he won on the road in Oakland. Willis McGahee also returned from hand surgery early and added a spark to the offense with just one hand. The Broncos are finally admitting that they have a really good college-style quarterback and so are installing the spread offense that makes it easier for Tim Tebow to take off running as he is often inclined to do. The Raiders had not prepared for that last week and Tebow rushed 12 times for 117 yards as a result. Chiefs coaches not sharp enough to prepare either. Keep the points. Play: Denver +157 (Risking 2 units).

ATLANTA –103 over New Orleans

Having won three straight and with Tennessee and Minnesota visiting in the next two weeks, the Falcons can gain an upper hand with a victory here. The Saints come to town with a less than stellar road résumé, having lost three of five away including recent mortification in St. Louis. The Rams loss was a trap game but it followed a loss in Tampa Bay and a close win in Carolina. The Saints went nuts on the visiting Colts but have been much less prolific in scoring since week four. Injuries could be a big factor as they continue to plague the Saints. The Falcons remain one of the league’s stronger home teams with 10 wins in past 12 in Georgia and with this being their first home date since October 16th, expect a solid performance from an Atlanta team whose chemistry is at its peak. Play: Atlanta –103 (Risking 2 units).

Washington +4/+180 over MIAMI

We’re going to split this up and play a single unit on both the spread and money line. This is one of those classic overreaction games whereas the Dolphins whacked the Chiefs and the Redskins lost ugly at home to the 49ers. The week prior, Washington looked even worse in loss to Bills. Had this one been played last week before Miami crushed K.C. this line would’ve been a pick‘em. The Dolphins first win was a dominant one but that doesn’t rationalize spotting points with them quite yet. Washington’s been struggling but with ex-Dolphin QB John Beck getting more comfortable with his new mates and the added motivation of facing his old ones, expect a spirited effort from the doggie. A badly coached Dolphin team that plays horribly at home, coming off an emotional win on the road offers up zero appeal. Skins come to play this week. Play: Washington +4 (Risking 1.06 units to win 1) Play: Washington +180 (Risking 1 unit).

The rest with no wagers:

CINCINNATI +3½ over Pittsburgh

The Bengals have never been an easy out for the Steelers and with first place on the line, this one should be no exception. Pittsburgh’s road play has not been impressive while Cincinnati’s underrated defense can create scoring opportunities for its ascending offense. Play Cincinnati (No bets).

Buffalo +5½ over DALLAS

Both teams positioned where they line our pockets best as Buffalo has covered 10 of past 12 when taking points while the unreliable Cowboys have managed just two covers in last 13 as chalk. Dallas’ red zone play remains a concern and that’s not conducive to covering spread. After watching the Cowboys struggle to put away the Seahags, it’s getting progressively more difficult to endorse these Boys spotting anything. Play: Buffalo +5½ (No bets).

INDIANAPOLIS +3 over Jacksonville

One has to wonder if Payton Manning is standing on the sidelines wondering how it took so long to wreck his neck carrying these losers all these years. One also has to wonder if he is secretly wondering what he could accomplish if the team does draft Luck, and trades him to a team that doesn’t need him to part the red sea to win a game. Still, one has to wonder if this is the week the Colts win a game. While Indy ranks 31st in offensive yards with a meager 282 yards per game, the Jaguars are worse, at an alarming 40 yards per game lower. That alone negates Jacksonville from being a road chalk, no matter who the opposition might be. Play: Indianapolis +3 (No bets).

CHICAGO –2½ over Detroit

This Chicago team is dangerous and with plenty on the line here, in addition to a revenge motive for earlier Monday night loss, we’ll gladly back the hometown Bears spotting a small number. Detroit must show us some consistent play before they earn this kind of respect. How’s that Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton trade lookin? Play: Chicago –2½ (No bets).

CAROLINA –3½ over Tennessee

The Panthers 2-6 mark is slightly misleading as they led in almost all their games and now must learn to finish. After its break, we expect a fiery 2nd half from Carolina while the same cannot be said of a useless Titans squad, whose only win this past month was against the woeful Colts. Play: Carolina –3½ (No bets).

CLEVELAND –2½ over St. Louis

If you could package up games, this one would be sold at the Dollar Store. Making a case for either side simply sounds foolish but when push comes to shove we’ll lean Browns as Rams have to be more demoralized than usual after last Sunday and are travelling on consecutive weeks. Play: Cleveland –2½ (No bets).

PHILADELPHIA –14 over Arizona

Much of the Philadelphia’s woes can be attributed to its defense and while the team remains a huge disappointment overall, this opponent does not have the ability to counterpunch with the Eagles offensive prowess, especially with a back-up QB going. This is precisely the type of team the Eagles can get all their frustrations out on. Interestingly enough, this is only the second time in past 20 years that a 3-5 team has been double-digit favorites. Play: Philadelphia –14 (No bets).

SEATTLE +7 over Baltimore

Classic sandwich spot and we’re going to bite into it. The Ravens tend to letdown after beating Pittsburgh as witnessed in Baltimore’s loss to the lowly Titans after earlier win over Steelers. Factor in Baltimore’s home date with Cincinnati next week and a hiccup here wouldn’t surprise. Play: Seattle +7 (No bets).

N.Y. Giants +3½ over SAN FRANCISCO

Say what you will about Giants coach Tom Coughlin, as he rants up and down the sidelines but the guy usually has his team battling throughout. Just look at New York’s 27-3 record vs. spread as an underdog to illustrate that point and that’s good enough to get the nod here. Little concerned with the letdown angle after G-Men beat Pats and we don’t like that added hook the books are offering to entice Giant money and it’s for those reasons we’re backing off. Play: N.Y. Giants +3½ (No bets).

N.Y. JETS –1 over New England

There was a time when it was unfathomable to think that the Patriots could lose three straight. Not anymore. New England has several inefficiencies, not the least of which is its inability to rush the passer. The Jets are soaring and with redemption and first place as extra incentives, we’ll stick with the hotter club. Play: N.Y. Jets –1 (No bets).