EZWINNERS
Washington Redskins +4
The Dolphins finally picked up their first win of the season last week at Kansas City and now they are favorite of more than a field goal in their next game. The Dolphins have a history of failure as home favorites and cannot be trusted laying points against any team. After a promising start to the season the Redskins have struggled recently. The offense has not found a rhythm with quarterback John Beck, but the defense still continues to play well which will be key in this game. The Dolphins offense came to life last week, but I don't expect that to continue on a consistent basis. Look for this to be a low scoring game decided by a field goal one way or the other. Take the points.
Spartan
Tampa Bay +3
Going to side with Josh Freeman and his Buc's as they take the field sunday in the role of home dog to the Texans. Likely won't be a real popular release here but I think it will be come late Sunday afternoon. Tampa needs this game badly guys. It's time for them to take a stand at home if they are serious about being contenders and not pretenders. Texans are not in that boat as they have surged to a two game lead in the AFC south. Houston has been getting W's but when you put their schedule to date under a microscope it loses some of it's luster. This one won't be a thing of beauty but neither was Bama and LSU in college was it? I look for a pair of evenly matched teams to slug this one out and for the Buc's to prevail in a gritty much needed victory. Freeman needs to step up here and be decisive and take control. I've followed him since his days at Kansas State and the guy has literally all the tools but can make some really, really lousy decisions at the worst time. Tampa needs him to have his head in it and bring his A game Sunday. I'm betting he does it. I say Tampa Bay getting the 3 points is the right side here fellas.
King Creole
Jaguars / Colts Under 37.5
Poor Indy is still WINLESS on the year.
0-5 O/U L4Y: All GAME 8 or greater WINLESS underdogs of 7 < pts (Indy).
The Colts are 0-9 SU on the year and the Jags are 2-6 SU.
1-6 O/U s'99: All GAME 8 or greater .250 < DIVISION home teams (Indy) vs a .250 < division opp (Jax)... when the OU line is 43 < pts.
Jacksonville comes in off their Bye Week.
1-7 O/U s'01: All home dogs off BB 'Unders' (Colts)... versus an oponent ALSO off BB 'Unders' (Jags).
Within this AFC SOUTH division, we note that:
DIVISON home dogs (Colts) with an OU line of 40 < points have gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U since 2006.
Final score in the Dome: 17 to 13....
James Patrick Sports
Giants vs. 49'ers
San Francisco has won seven of its eight games this season, although their QB Smith has tossed a grand total of (10) touchdowns in that span. Great match-up as the New York defense with DEs Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora playing at an All-Pro level highlight a deep and talented defensive line. San Francisco HC Harbaugh brought defensive coordinator Vic Fangio with him and they retained the 3-4 scheme the 49ers used under Mike Singletary. They drafted Aldon Smith seventh overall to generate an outside pass rush. They have a good defensive line led by the NFL’s best 3-4 lineman, DE Justin Smith, who creates pressure and plays the run well. The Under is (5-2) in the last (7) meetings. Points are scarce in the Bay Area on Sunday as Big Game James Patrick's NFL complimentary selection is Giants - 49'ers Under the Total.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
NY Jets/ New England Under 47.5: Just not a lot of side plays I like this week and I really like this Totals play, so it will be my top play of the week. Last week the Jets got back to doing what they do best and that's control the clock with their short passing game and running game and then play good defense on the other side of the ball. That plan worked to perfection last week as they beat the Bills 27-11 and I expect them to use the same game plan this week. The Last thing the Jets want to do is get into a shoot out here. The just don't have an explosive enough offense to keep up with the Pats. The Pats are 9th in the league vs the run, but that maye be due more to the fact that thier pass defense is 32nd and that is an easier way fror teams to go. Wether it's the run or short passing game, the Jet's will look to control the clock and limit the amount of offensive plays thie high powered Pats offense will get. The Pats do come in 2nd in totall offense, 1st in passing offense and 5th in points scored, but teams have figured them out of late as they have averaged just 19 ppg in their last 3 games after putting up 30+ points in each of their first 5 games. Tonight they will have a tough task getting it going vs a Jets defense that has been playing very well of late. New York comes in allowing just 12.7 ppg and 287 ypg in their last 3 games overall, while they have allowed just 13.5 ppg and 292 ypg at home on the year., plus they are 6th vs the pass this year, allowing just 196 ypg. The Jets are playing the better ball right now and they will control clock on offense and come up with enough stops on defense to keep the scoring down here.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER SYSTEM PLAY
Kansas City/ Denver Over 41: Last week the Chiefs played a flat game after their OT win vs SD on MNF and they were held to just 3 points, but they should be a bit more focused on offense in this one vs division rival Denver.Prior t last weeks game vs Miami the Chiefs offense had been play well as they averaged 25.3 ppg in their previous 4 games. Today the Chiefs will be going up against a Denver defense that has really struggled this year. Denver's defense comes in ranked 21st overall (373.5 ypg) and 31st in points allowed 28 ppg, while on the road this team has allowed 380.8 ypg and 26.7 ppg. The Chiefs defense has played better of late, but they have struggled at home this year, allowing 27.2 ppg and 375.2 ypg. Now they get a rejuvenated Denver offense that will continue to play to Tebow's strengths, which is that as a running QB. Last week Denver did pile up 299 yards on the ground and Tebow added 118 yards of that. Neither offense has been spectacular this year, but they are more than capable of putting up points on a couple of bad defenses. This game may hit 50. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Play the Over if a team lost by 14 or more last week and they have a MNF road game up next. This system has gone 25-9-1 since 1991.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Miami/ Washington Under 37.5: Sorry VR, Have to disagree here. This will be a real boring game with lots of running, bad QB play and more FG's than TD's. The Skins put up 50 points in their first 2 games, but since then they have averaged just 12.8 ppg and on the road they have put up just 13.2 ppg.The Skins have been horrid on the offensive side of late, but their defense has played very well this year, as they come in 14th overall (341 ypg), 11th vs the pas (218.8 ypg) and 7th in points allowed (19.8 ppg). The Miami defense had a rough start and they did allow 26 ppg before their bye week, but since the bye they have allowed just 16.3 ppg. The Miami offense has not played all that well as they have averaged just 313 ypg and 16.2 ppg in thier last 7 games, after putting up 390 yards and 24 points in the opener vs a bad Pats defense. Washington road games have averaged just 33 ppg, while Miami's last 7 games have averaged just 35 ppg. I see two inept offenses having trouble scoirng here vs a couple of defenses that are really playing well here. I look for 30 points at best here.
Houston -3.5 over TAMPA BAY: The Texas are rolling right now as they come in having won 3 in a row and are 3 games above .500 for the first time in franchise history. They haven't beaten good teams on ntheir 3 game winning streak, but they did what they were supposed to vs them and that's win big. Houdston comes in to this game with big edges on both soides of the ball, as they offense is 8th overall (393 ypg) and 6th in scoring (26.2 ppg), while Tampa's offense comes in ranked 15th overall (343.5 ypg) and 24th in scoring (18.4 ppg). On the other side of the ball we have a Houston defense that is ranked 1st overall (274 ypg) and 3rd in points allowed (17.4 ppg), while the Bucs defense has been horrible at 29th overall (399 ypg) and 24th in points allowed (24.5 ppg). Houston has the 3rd ranked rushing offense, putting up 155.1 ypg and that is not good news for a Tampa defense that can'y stop the run as they have allowed 132.4 ypg (26th). Tampa is just not playing all the good this yera and it has been their defense that has let them down. That defense will not fare well today either as Houston will put more than enough points on the board to get an easy win and cover here. KEY TREND--- Tampa Bay is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 as a home dog.
2 UNIT PLAYS
PHILADELPHIA -14 Arizona: The Eagles may be the best 3-5 team in the history of the NFL and they should romp over an injury riddled Arizona team that just never got on track. Aizona is just missing too much offense to keep this one close and Philly is looking for that one team to take some of their frustrations out on. Eagles by 17+ here.
Seattle/ Baltimore Under 41: Coming off the Pitt game I don't expect a ton of points from Baltimore and I really don't see tgis weak seattle offense putting up a bunch of points vs a very good Baltimore defense. Look for a game in the low 30's here.
1 UNIT PLAY
CINCINNATI +3.5 over Pittsburgh: Time for the Bengals to show that they are for real. Pitt is off a tough loss to Baltimore and will not be able to rebound here.
Jack Clayton
Denver at Kansas City
Pick: Over
The offenses are good enough, particularly with the ground attacks. It's the defenses that makes this a great play over the total, as both defenses are awful. The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Kansas City. Play the Chiefs/Broncos Over the total.
Jimmy Moore
New Orleans @ Atlanta - FOX
Pick: Atlanta +1
The Falcons have been a very good team at home under QB Ryan at 22-4 SU and 17-9 ATS. Atlanta's defense has been strong lately limiting their last 3 opponents to 17 points or less. The Saints are only 2-3 SU on the road this season and they are coming off of a revenge divisional win last week against Tampa. Take Atlanta to get this win.
Rob Vinciletti
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -3
The Chiefs are ending their 3 game home stand here today vs a Denver team that erupted for a big 14 point road dog win in Denver. The Chiefs if there not still celebrating their Monday night football win vs the Chargers should win here if they show up. Denver has failed to cover the last 6 times in the 2nd of back road games. The Broncos are 0-5 straight up and ats on the road off a division win. The Chiefs are 4-0 straight up and ats when the line is +3 to -3. Road teams in game 8 or later are just 11-30 ats off a road division win by 10 or more if the spread is 3 or less. Look for KC to get back on track in the AFC Wild West.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Sorry, Bengals fans, this step up in class is just too much. Cincy's six wins this season have come against: Cleveland, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Seattle and Tennessee. Only one of those teams (Buffalo) is legit. Not only do they draw the Steelers this week, but its an angry Steelers team off a last-second loss to the rival Ravens last Sunday night. Since last season, Pittsburgh is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a straight up loss. They are also 15-5 ATS their last 20 visits to the Queen City.
Play on: Pittsburgh
Michael Alexander
New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: New York Giants +3.5
NEW YORK is 30-13 ATS in their last 43 road games
NEW YORK is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings
NEW YORK is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a road underdog
Steve Merril
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Denver Broncos +3.5
Kansas City gained some attention when they ripped off 4 consecutive wins after opening the season at 0-3. But they beat three terrible teams over that stretch and got extremely fortunate in their Monday night win over the Chargers. The Chiefs got back to reality last week in their 31-3 home blowout loss to the Dolphins. Kansas City was getting the breaks during their winning streak; they benefited from a remarkable 13/6 turnover margin in those 4 games, including a 10/6 margin against the Raiders and Chargers. An easy schedule plus getting lucky in the turnover game is a great recipe to string together some wins, and that is exactly what Kansas City did. We often see teams winning on “good fortune” become overvalued and this is when we can take advantage of the public perception of a team. Despite their recent success, the Chiefs are still 26th in the league in scoring offense, 23rd in the league in points allowed, 21st in yardage allowed, and 27th in offensive passing yards per game. Kansas City is not really a team that deserves to be 4-4 on the season. Denver has played much better football since Tim Tebow too over as the starting quarterback. The Broncos have gone 2-1 in those games as their rushing game has been phenomenal; they’ve run for 183, 195, and 298 yards with Tebow under center. Overall, the Broncos are 5th in the league in rushing; they average 148 yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush. Denver will find room to run against the Chiefs’ defense which is 17th in the league against the run (120 yards per game on 4.1 yards per rush). Since 2007, the Chiefs are just 13-23 ATS at home including 3-11-1 ATS as a home favorite. Kansas City should not be favored over any team so we’ll take the points with Denver in this game.
John Ryan
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Florida Panthers
Play: Florida Panthers
5* graded play on the Florida Panthers as they host the Philadelphia Flyers set to start at 5:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Florida will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 177-167 for just 52% winners, nut has made a whopping 56 units per one unit wagered since 2005. The reason is quite simple. The system has averaged a +126 DOG over the span of the plays. Flyers defense has been suspect all season and they have not done well against teams getting a high number of shots on goal. Note that the Flyers are 32-37 against the money line (-21.2 Units) against good offensive teams averaging 29.5 or more shots on goal per game over the last two seasons. Take the Florida Panthers.
Charlie Scott
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
I'll lay the points with the Steelers, expecting to get a strong effort after s/u Loss to Baltimore @ Home Sunday Night. The Steelers under Coach Tomlin rarely lose 2 s/u in a row. The Bengals have a nice young team that has played a soft schedule so far. Their 1 game vs a good defense 49ers the Bengals lost 8-13, but the game wasn't even that close. The Steelers defense should matchup nicely vs a Bengals Offense led by a Rookie QB Dalton who has managed games vs vanilla defense's up to now. The Steelers have much more talent on both sides of the ball.
Nick Parsons
Steelers @ Bengals
PICK: Over 40.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":
Pittsburgh is 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS; last week is lost a tough one 23-20 to Baltimore on Sunday Night; the O/U is 5-4.
The Steelers have seen the total go "over" the number in 3 of 4 road games this year and in 12 of 20 in the same position over the last three seasons.
On the other side of the field: The Bengals are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS; last week it beat Tennessee 24-17; the O/U is 6-2.
Note that the total has gone "over" the number in 6 of the Bengals last 8 at Paul Brown Stadium.
Bottom line: Both teams have great defensive units; but each has capable offenses as well, and I expect each to come to the fore today.
In this important divisional contest, where the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers all are separated by just a single-point, I believe we'll see this total sneak above the posted number late in this contest; it all adds up to a play on the OVER!
David Chan
NY Islanders @ Vancouver
PICK: NY Islanders +1.5
The 4-6-3 New York Islanders storm into Vancouver to take on the 8-8-1 Vancouver Canucks.
Evgeni Nabokov has been confirmed in net and he's scheduled to oppose 'Nucks backup Cory Schneider.
Vancouver has yet to put together more than two consecutive victories this year, and returns home for a three-game set after finishing 3-3-0 in its latest road-trip, which was capped off with a 4-3 setback on Friday in Anaheim.
Roberto Luongo continued his shaky start to the year, and was pulled after two periods in the loss to the Ducks.
To say the Isles are hungry for a road victory would be a big understatement.
They're 1-5-3 in their last nine after squandering a three-goal lead in a 4-3 OT setback to the Avs on Thursday.
Keep your eyes on John Tavares of the Isles though, who scored two goals and had three assists in New York's last visit to Vancouver, a 5-2 New York win on March 16th, 2010.
Vancouver won the most recent matchup 4-3 in a shootout on January 11th.
I expect a similarly close, and hard fought affair tonight; as a result, I'll lay the price for the extra 1.5-goals!