SEAN MURPHY
Edmonton Oilers @ Chicago Blackhawks
PICK: Chicago Blackhawks
The Oilers are reeling right now, losers of back-to-back games, and three of their last four on this lengthy road trip, which mercifully comes to an end tonight in Chicago.
I don't believe this is a favorable spot for them to stem the tide, as the Blackhawks have been terrific at home this season, going 6-1-2, and are playing at a high level right now, coming off back-to-back wins by a combined 10-4 margin.
Yes, Edmonton has had some success at the 'Madhouse on Madison', however, the Oilers have had the element of surprise to work with over the past few years. Off to a strong 9-5-2 start, that no longer exists. The Blackhawks certainly won't take the upstart Oilers lightly on Sunday.
Perhaps most alarming for the Oilers isn't just the fact that they've been losing, it's that their two biggest strengths early in the season, goaltending and power play, have let them down. They've given up 13 goals in their last three losses, going 1-for-10 on the PP in those games. Keep in mind, this is a team that averages just 2.2 goals per game on 25.4 shots per game. There's little margin for error with offensive numbers like that.
The Blackhawks are averaging 3.2 gpg on the season, and that number improves to 3.7 at home. Their power play is clicking right now, converting on three of their last seven opportunities. Look for them to take advantage of a road weary Oilers squad playing its third game in four nights on Sunday. Take Chicago.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Houston Texans -3.5
While Tampa Bay will no doubt be motivated following back-to-back defeats, I expect it to fall short against a Houston squad that holds edges on both sides of the football. The Buccaneer run defense has been awful the last two weeks, giving up an average of 186 yards on the ground. Look for a Houston offense that has averaged 213 rushing yards over the last three games to take advantage. The Bucs have had more success throwing the football this season, but they realize the running game has been the key to their success. They're 4-0 this season when rushing for at least 100 yards and 0-4 when they fall short of the century mark. Tampa Bay doesn't figure to have much luck on the ground in this one as it goes up against a Houston defense that leads the NFL with 274 yards allowed per contest. The Texans rank fourth against the run with 91.4 yards allowed per game. The Buccaneers are a lousy 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog. The Texans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Lay the points with Houston.
Dave Price
1 Unit St. Louis Rams +3
The Rams are a better team than their record indicates. Injuries and a difficult first-half schedule have done them in. Cleveland's wins over Indy, Miami and Seattle don't impress anyone. The Rams have a quality win against a very good New Orleans team and really should have won again last week as they outplayed the Cardinals. I really believe the Rams are the better side, and I have no problem going against a Browns team that is just 2-12-2 ATS in its last 16 games overall. It's also worth mentioning that the Browns are 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. Bet the Rams.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Chicago Bears -2.5
This isn't the same Bears team that lost at Detroit back on Oct. 10. This isn't the same Lions either. Chicago enters this matchup confident off 3 straight wins. Detroit, meanwhile, doesn't have the same swagger after dropping 2 of its last 3. Prior to its loss in Detroit last month, the Bears had won 6 in a row versus the Lions. They've won 3 in a row at home in this series and 5 of the last 6 and 8 of the last 10. Home field will make all the difference again this afternoon. Chicago's surge has coincided with improvement in the ground game. The Bears have averaged 153.3 rushing yards during their 3-game win streak. They should be able to put up a big number today on a Lions defense that ranks 29th against the run with 137.6 yards allowed per contest. Detroit has given up an average of 175.7 rushing yards the last 3 weeks. Detroit's rushing attack was the difference in the season's first meeting. Jahvid Best had a career day as the Lions rushed for a season-high 181 yards. Since that game, however, Chicago is only allowing 67.3 rushing yards per contest. It's done this while going up against two of the best rushing teams in the NFL in Minnesota and Philly. With Best doubtful and the Bears tightening the screws defensively, don't expect the Lions to get much of anything on the ground in this one. Chicago's offensive line is playing much better, and offensive coordinator Mike Martz won't make the mistake of not leaving in extra protection for Jay Cutler this time around. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.0 points or less. We'll lay the points as Chicago has its revenge.
Doug Upstone
Kansas City
It's a division battle with Denver visiting Kansas City in the AFC West. The Broncos are off the big road upset of Oakland, however that places them in a difficult spot. Play Against road teams like Denver when the line is +3 to -3, off a upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, after the first month of the season. (28-7 ATS, 80%)
NHL Predictions
Florida Panthers +115
I won’t have a full write up this morning, as my Sunday’s are dedicated to NFL football, but I will include a few stats here. Both teams enter this afternoon’s game at 8-4-3 on the season. The Flyers have been off since a Wednesday 2-1 overtime loss against the Tampa Bay Lightning, and have lost 2 of their last 3 games and 4 of their last 7. Florida has won two straight in impressive fashion, outscoring Toronto and Winnipeg 10-3. They are 3-0-3 in their last 6 games, losing three straight games in shootout that could have just as easily been wins. The Panthers powerplay continues to be solid, converting at 24.1% on the year and 26.7% in their last 5. The time off in Florida might have had a negative effect on this Flyers team, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they came out a little flat this afternoon against the Panthers, who have playing good hockey lately. Take the Panthers on the moneyline with a generous underdog price tag.
JIM FEIST
ARIZONA AT PHILADELPHIA
TAKE: PHILADELPHIA
Arizona (2-6 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) hasn't got the offense going yet under QB Kevin Kolb (8 TDs, 8 INTs), in the middle of the pack in passing and below average running the football, learning the new playbook with offensive coordinator Mike Miller. Throw in WR Larry Fitzgerald and new TE Todd Heap and the Cardinals should have more offensive punch. They decided to go with QB jon Skelton on Sunday (Kolb was out with a turf toe) and he threw for 222 yards in a 19-13 comeback win over the Rams, overcoming a 13-6 fourth quarter deficit. Of concern is this awful defense that allowed 383 yards (150 rushing). And don.5?t pay much attention to the 30-27 loss at Baltimore: They were outgained 405-207 and blew a 24-6 halftime team. The cost to acquire Kolb was their best defensive back (Rodgers-Cromartie) and the secondary has been poor. The Cardinals are riding a 1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS run. The lack of a consistent pass rush was a big factor in the team.5?s 5-11 record last season and they look just as bad. The Cardinals are 4-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC, 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games, 7-24 ATS in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Philly (3-5 SU/ATS) loaded up with a boatload of talent in the offseason but has been up and down. They had an impressive 34-7 rout of Dallas Monday night two weeks ago with a dominant display, rushing for 239 yards against the No. 1 run defense. They had 495 total yards and held the explosive Dallas attack to 267 yards. But they turned around Monday night and lost at home to the Bears as 8-point chalk, 30-24. QB Mike Vick (11 TDs, 9 INTs) is playing with a broken bone in his right hand, but torched Dallas for 279 yards passing (21 of 28) and ran for 50 yards while LeShaun McCoy had 185 rushing yards. The Philly offense should have a huge game against this awful Arizona .5?D.5?. The Eagles are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings, the Cardinals are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. I'm sticking with the Eagles here on Sunday as they look to put a hurting on the Cardinals after Monday's dismal performance.