Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 14,2010

Nelly

Indianapolis - over Cincinnati

The Colts have played a road heavy schedule so far this season and Indianapolis is undefeated at home this season, covering in all three games as well. After each S/U loss Indianapolis has delivered a double-digit win against a quality team, crushing the Giants and outlasting the Chiefs. The Bengals faced a huge make-or-break Monday night game and this should be a problematic short week situation. Cincinnati had their chances in that game but the same mistakes continue to materialize and the effort the rest of the way has to be questioned for a team that is essentially out of playoff contention at just the halfway point of the season. Most losses have come by slim margins for the Bengals but both teams have taken big steps back on defense this season and going against the Colts offense should be difficult even if Indianapolis is missing a few regulars in the offensive attack. Cincinnati's running game has not been effective enough to take advantage of some deficiencies for the Colts on defense and while statistically the Colts are not a great defensive team they have allowed just 40 points in three home games against three strong offensive teams, the Giants, Chiefs, and Texans. Indianapolis has owned this series in recent years as well, covering in 13 of the last 17 meetings and Indianapolis is 15-8 in the last 23 games as favorites, a surprising number considering that this is a popular team that people like to back and that often can face inflated lines.

Sports Insights

Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This week's selection is one of the most lopsided-bet games of the week. Just 18% of the bets are landing on the visiting Carolina Panthers, with a huge number of bettors putting their hard-earned money on the 5-3 Bucs. We'll "bet against the Public" and go with the "ugly" play -- and the 1-7 Panthers.

The sports marketplace for this game also reflects "reverse line movement," which our readers know we like as an indicator of "big, smart, money." Even with almost every bet taking the Bucs, the line has moved from its opener of Bucs -7 to Bucs -6.5. One of our offshore contacts circled this game and verified that his, "sports book is taking a large number of bets on Tampa Bay -- but a few of the sharper bettors are taking Carolina."

Our readers know that we like to "bet against the Public" while following the "smart money." In addition, we like this play on Carolina for several other reasons:

* If you shop around, several books are starting to move Carolina back to a big +7 points.

* This is a divisional match-up, which teams often "get up" for.

* Although Tampa Bay is 5-3, their margin of "points for" minus "points against" is a mediocre -33.

* Tampa Bay has had one blowout win (although over Carolina!), with their other four wins coming by a maximum margin of 3 points as follows: 3, 3, 1, 3.

Currently, several books have moved the line back to Carolina +7, but remember to shop around for the best line and best odds.

Carolina Panthers +7

Marc Lawrence

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills
Prediction: Detroit Lions

Is this the week the Bills finally break their cherry? The linesmaker thinks so. We, on the other hand, do not. A three-point loss last week, preceded by a pair of overtime defeats, has Buffalo fans pulling our what little hair they have left. Our main cause for concern today is the minus sign draped in front of Buffalo?s name. That?s because winless chalk from Game Six out is just 7-10 SU and ATS, including 1-5 SU and ATS when facing a .250 or less opponent. Toss in the fact that the men from Motown own the better offense and the better defense in this fray and it makes our choice clear-cut. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

Hollywood Sports

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: St. Louis Rams

Coming off their bye week, they should (at least) keep it close against their NFC West divisional rivals. The Rams (4-4) have covered 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog of 3.5-10 points. They face a San Francisco team (2-6) that earned their second win of the season in their 24-16 victory over Denver in the game played in London. While Troy Smith was effective in his first start for the 49ers, it was disappointing to hear that he spent his bye week back in Ohio rather than staying in San Francisco and working with the team. That is not what teams do when they still feel they are in the playoff hunt. They are unlikely to build off their win over the Broncos as they are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games coming off a point spread win. They also have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as a favorite. St. Louis' strong front seven on defense will keep them in this game. Take the point with the Rams.

Vernon Croy

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos +1

This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Broncos are the superior overall team here at home Sunday. The Chiefs have overachieved so far this season and it will show Sunday since I have the 2-6 Broncos winning this game big at home. The Chiefs have only averaged 168.9 passing yards per game this season while Denver has averaged 296.3 passing yards per game and yet Denver has played a tougher schedule so far this season. Denver comes into this game desperate for a win having lost 4 straight games and the Chiefs are just 1-8-1 against the spread in their last 10 games as a favorite. Denver has a huge advantage coming off a bye week and they are 17-6 SU in their last 23 games off a bye week. Grab the point with the Broncos as my NFL Free Pick for Sunday afternoon.

Ultimate Sport Picks

New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: New York Jets -3

We like the Jets to cover in this match up. The Browns have looked great the last two weeks. They were able to force the Saints into a lot of turnovers and were able to run all over the Patriots (230 yards). But the Patriots, despite there record, really do not have a very good defense, especially when it comes to stopping the run. This week will be a little different, as the Browns go against what may be the best run-stopping defense in the league. The Jets have a lot more weapons and blitz schemes than what the Patriots were able to put together to confuse rookie Colt Mccoy. The Jets are coming off two losses, which some might think is a bad thing, but we are looking at it as a very good team that is hungry for a win. The Jets behind Rex Ryan are a very confident/cocky team, and they will do anything it takes to not drop three in a row. We think the Browns are a hot team right now, who are much improved and heading in the right direction. They, unfortunately, are running into the wrong team this week. Once again we like the Jets to cover.. 22-17.

Wunderdog

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
Play: Dallas Cowboys +13

Who could have predicted at the beginning of this season that we would see a two-touchdown spread in this game. Overreaction maybe? Just when the owner said that firing a coach in mid season didn't make sense, he couldn't take it anymore. After watching his beloved Cowboys get humiliated 45-7 in front of a Sunday Night National TV audience, Jerry Jones finally and mercifully brough an end to the Wade Phillips era. Thank goodness. Phillips definitely lost the team and I would not be surprised at all if the Cowboys respond with all the talent they have and make the Giants sweat more than expected here. The Giants are the hottest team in the league right now and, looking at Dallas at 1-7, they may not take them seriously enough. These are professional football players with pride. There is no more lame coach to blame poor play on. After losing 17-35 and 7-45, I expect Dallas to show up here against a hated rival. The Cowboys have responded after dismal performances, going 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games after allowing 35+ points last game. The Giants have been no-shows facing a team with a losing road record at 0-5 ATS in their last five tries. Under Tom Coughlin, this team is 4-14 ATS at home after allowing 14 or fewer points last game. Dallas brings it here against a New York team that could be drinking a bit too much koolaid. I like Dallas plus the points.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Texans @ Jaguars
PICK: Under 50

I believe the value in this Sunday's contest between the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars, is on the "under":

Houston is just 2-3 in front of its home town crowd after it blew a 23-14 lead to the Chargers, mentally collapsing on a number of different levels down the stretch.

This team is struggling mightily on the defensive side of the ball; it ranks last overall and last against the pass.

The Texans are 4-4 and tied with the Jaguars for third spot in the crowded AFC South (Titans are 5-3; Colts are 5-3).

This division is still anyone's for the taking; it's not too late for Houston to turn things around and get things going in a more positive direction.

It's obvious that this team has no problems whatsoever putting points on the board, but if it does have a realistic shot at a run at the postseason, it will have to improve on the defensive side.

Good news, the corners will be facing David Garrard, who has been decent to start the year, but who in my opinion is definitely not of the same caliber as a Philip Rivers or a Peyton Manning, the last 2 QB's they've been unfortunate enough to face.

Important to point out here, that dating back to last season the Texans have seen the total go "under" the number in 7 of their last 10 on the road.

On the other side of the field: Just like Houston, Jacksonville still has a very legitimate shot at taking the division crown and knows that after a going 4-4 in the first half, that it will have to play a lot better in the second to take the title.

With 5 very tough games coming up which include after the Texans; vs. Cleveland, @ NY Giants, @ Tennessee, vs. Oakland, and @ Indianapolis (with Houston again in their final game), the Jaguars must start playing better immediately.

And just like the Texans, the biggest area in need of improvement for this team is on the defensive side of the ball.

Keep in mind that dating back to last season the Jaguars have seen the total go "under" the number in 6 of their last 8 in front of the home town crowd.

Also, over the last 2-seasons Jacksonville has seen the total go "under" the number in both games its played after its "bye week".

Bottom line: Significant to note as well here that the total has indeed also gone "under" the number in 5 of these teams last 7 vs. each other at EverBank Field.

"Situations" play a big part in my handicapping repertoire; this is a big game for both teams.

In such a competitive and close division, every win from here on out is crucial, and if either of these sides hopes to advance, it must improve dramatically on the defensive side of the ball.

I believe we'll witness that on Sunday, and think if you take all of the above factors into consideration, that you'll agree with me that this total is just a bit too high; you may want to take a second look at the "under" in this game gentlemen.

BIG AL

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
PICK: New York Giants -13.5

These two teams met two games back, on Monday night, and Cowboy QB Tony Romo was injured early in that game, and the life was sucked out of his team on that play. Fast forward two weeks, and head coach Wade Phillips was fired, and replaced by offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. But there’s no way I’m touching the Cowboys, with or without a new head coach on the sidelines. Indeed, Garrett isn’t even really a new coach, as he was responsible for the team’s offense for all these weeks. The Giants are the best team in the NFC right now, and one of the two best teams along with the Steelers in Football. New York comes home off back to back road wins over Dallas and Seattle, and it scored 41 points in each victory. That sets New York up in the following system: Since 1980, home favorites of minus 10 or more points are 42-26 off back to back road wins, including 23-11 ATS vs. foes off back to back losses. Additionally, road underdogs of +13.5 or more points are a terrible 36% ATS off back to back pointspread failures by more than 7 points, if they’re matched up against a foe off a win. It's all "Big Blue" here. Lay the points with New York.

TEDDY COVERS

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7

Carolina has gone from bad to worse, with the injuries and attrition starting to mount for the Panthers. Here’s an excerpt from my most recent NFC Team Notes column about the Panthers woes. “It sure looks like many of the veterans on this team, are going through the motions. As the offense struggled, the defense gradually wore down, allowing one long drive after the next; unable to get off the field. As the game progressed we saw a handful of real frustration penalties from this defense. Factor in an offense that leads the NFL in giveaways, and there's not much light on the horizon for this squad.”

Panthers starting QB Matt Moore is out for the year. Backup QB Jimmy Clausen has a QB rating of 48, dead last in the NFL. He’s been benched on three separate occasions for ineffectiveness, but head coach John Fox doesn’t have another viable option. Clausen’s ratio of four interceptions, seven fumbles and eleven sacks compared to his one touchdown pass is downright ugly, and the weak Panthers receiving corps isn’t helping matters one iota. Carolina’s top three running backs – Johnathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams and Tyrell Sutton – are all out for this game. That leaves the lowest scoring offense in the NFL primed for another Sunday afternoon filled with ‘three and outs’.

The Bucs hammered Tampa 20-7 in the first meeting between these two teams this year, notching four sacks and forcing three turnovers. With LeGarrett Blount developing into a big play weapon at running back, and Josh Freeman getting better seemingly by the week, look for Tampa to handle Carolina with relative ease. 2* Take Tampa Bay.

Bryan Leonard

Carolina at Tampa Bay
Play Over 37

The Panthers offense has been abysmal this year regardless of who has been behind center. But Carolina has played a very tough group of defenses. The Giants, Bengals, Saints and Bears just to name a few. While these two only combined for 27 points in the first meeting it was a situation of yardage not equaling points. In the first half of that earlier game 21 points were scored on 362 total yards. We expect more of the same here as neither team has a defense willing to write home about. Carolina is coming off a season low 3 point output against the Saints and the linesmaker has made an over adjustment because of that fact.

Tampa Bay is sitting at 5-3 on the season but it's not because of their defense. The Bucs are allowing 17.6 first half points to go along with a whopping 211.4 yards before intermission. This despite the fact that they have played a bevy of questionable offenses including Cleveland, Carolina, Cincinnati and St Louis. The last two weeks Tampa Bay has permitted 27 and 35 points to Atlanta and Arizona. Offensively Tampa Bay is off 21 and 38 point efforts as the team is starting to become very comfortable with Josh Freeman behind center.

A total this low is generally used for two dominant defensive squads, which neither of these teams possess. The last six outings Tampa Bay is allowing 28.2 points per game. Even a weak offense like Carolina can put up points against this stop unit.

Info Plays

3* on Carolina Panthers +7

Reasons the Panthers cover:

1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Any team (CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This is a 36-8 ATS System hitting 81.8% over the last 10 seasons.

2.) Despite being 5-3 this season, Tampa Bay is actually getting outscored 19.6 PPG to 23.7 PPG on average. In their 4 home games, the Bucs are getting outscored by 11.5 PPG. This just goes to show that basically all of their wins have been by close margins, and they should not be 7-point favorites even against the Panthers Sunday. Four of the Bucs' five wins have come by 3 points or less. Bet Carolina on the road.

SPORTS WAGERS

New England +4½ over Pittsburgh

Let’s have a look at the Steelers since Big Ben returned after week 4. In his first game back, Roethlisberger and the Steelers defeated the Brownies 28-10. The stats in that game were just about even right across the board but Cleveland turned it over three times and the result was a misleading 18-point Steelers win. Pittsburgh’s next game came was in Miami and they won again, this time 23-22 on a phantom call that went their way. The stats and time of possession in that game were pretty much dead even. The Steelers next game was in New Orleans and they lost 20-10 followed by last week’s 27-21 win in Cincinnati in a game they got every break again, yet needed a last minute stop to prevent them from blowing a 20-point lead. Pitt is lucky they’re not on a three-game losing streak. The Steelers are overpriced and overrated. When they do win it’s by the narrowest of margins. Roethlisberger is a lot like Brett Favre in that he thinks he can sling the ball anywhere and his guys are going to catch it. He’s awkward and he’s extremely lucky. New England is not as good as advertised either. However, they have Belichick and Brady and it’s not recommended to wager against that duo when they’re coming off a 20-point loss. One can’t also ignore the fact that the Steelers will play its third game in a row in prime time. They’re coming off a Monday night game and they’re on a short week against the well-prepped Pats. New England has lost consecutive regular-season games only once in past four years and with Pittsburgh’s 24th ranked pass-defense facing Brady’s productive aerial game, we’ll call for the minor upset but the points absolutely seal the deal. Play: New England +4½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

CLEVELAND +3 +1.09 over N.Y. Jets

After walloping the Pats last week the only danger about backing the Brownies here is the possibility of a letdown. Having said that, we’re not buying into the letdown factor simply because a young and talented team that is playing great is a very dangerous team and you can double that at home. So, while the media and talk shows continue to give headlines to the Cowboys, Jets, Giants, Redskins, Eagles, Steelers, Vikes, Pats and Colts, the Cleveland Browns are quietly playing as good as anyone with the exception of the juggernaut Giants. The Brownies have won two in a row over New Orleans and New England. They didn’t just win they won by 13 or more in both games while the defense did a tremendous job on Brees and Brady. The Brownies are 3-5 but a close look reveals that they could just as easily be 6-2, 7-1 or even 8-0. They’ve been in every single game with a chance to win them all. They’ve played Baltimore, Pitt, Atlanta, New Orleans and New England among others. The Brownies are a strong and battle tested squad that is now believing they can do some serious damage. The Jets are coming off a miracle win in Detroit. They were down 20-10 with about 3½ minutes to go before a series of bizarre plays and a coin toss win in OT allowed them to prevail. So, while every team in the league was putting up 30 points against the Lions, the Jets had 10 with three minutes to go. The previous week they were shutout by the Packers. The Jets offense is looking worse every week. There’s a very fine line between winning and losing. The Jets have been on the right end of a at least two very close games against weak opponents (Denver 24-10 and Detroit 23-20) while the Brownies have been on the wrong end of at least four close games against all playoff teams. Now we get the home side plus points and juice and there’s no way we’re passing it up. Brownies outright. Play: Cleveland +3 +1.09 (Risking 2 units).

RANDALL THE HANDLE

BEST BETS

Patriots (6-2) at Steelers (6-2)

Pittsburgh buries Cleveland. Cleveland buries New England. So, logic would dictate that the Steelers should trounce the Patriots, correct? Sorry, it doesn’t quite work like that in this league but we’ll gladly be the beneficiaries of such sentiment. Pittsburgh won’t intimidate a smarting New England team that has seen Tom Brady’s squad defeat Ben Roethlisberger’s mates in three of the past four times they’ve met. The Patriots have lost consecutive regular-season games only once in past four years and with Pittsburgh’s 24th ranked pass-defense facing Brady’s productive aerial game, we’ll call for the minor upset. TAKING: PATRIOTS +4½

Titans (5-3) at Dolphins (4-4)

The Fish have had a tough schedule and while it is unusual not to have won at home midway through the season, we can partially excuse Miami when its visitors have been the Jets, Patriots and Steelers. Do such defeats justify the Titans being favored here? Not when Miami ranks better in both yards gained and yards allowed. In a bit of surprise move, the Dolphins have named QB Chad Pennington as their starter for this one. That could be the offensive spark that the Fins require as Pennington has been one of the most accurate passers in league history. Miami’s .500 record is better than it appears. TAKING: DOLPHINS +2

Jets (6-2) at Browns (3-5)

After facing Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Tom Brady consecutively, all of whom are Super Bowl winning quarterbacks, the Browns are not likely to be worried about Mark Sanchez. Not only did Cleveland face that deadly trio, they were victorious in two of the three contests. It’s no coincidence that Cleveland’s sudden improvement occurred at the same time that Colt McCoy has taken over the helm. The young pivot seems more poised than Sanchez despite the Jets quarterback having a year and a half under his belt. Jets have had more than their share of good luck this season but a near miss in Detroit followed by a trip here could see it run out. TAKING: BROWNS +3

THE REST

Bengals (2-6) at Colts (5-3)

Colts return to Lucas Oil Stadium after tripping up in Philadelphia and there is nothing like home cooking for Peyton & Co. Indy’s previous three as host have all resulted in wins while outscoring opponents by a combined 87-40. The Bengals are flat at best of times and Monday’s loss to the Steelers likely to put them notch below that.. TAKING: COLTS –7

Texans (4-4) at Jaguars (4-4)

We’re tired of waiting for the Texans to become relevant. They are poorly coached while having the collective heart of a flea. The Jags don’t have nearly the talent but at least show up most weeks. Jacksonville won both meetings last season and until things change in Houston, expecting wins from them is irrational. TAKING: JAGUARS –1½

Vikings (3-5) at Bears (5-3)

Neither side tickles our money bone at the moment but calling for the Vikings right now is a far less palatable choice. Given Minnesota’s poor record here, its current dysfunctional state and Brett Favre’s propensity to pass to the opposing team, Chicago should be afforded enough to emerge victorious. TAKING: BEARS +1

Lions (2-6) at Bills (0-8)

Bills still looking for their first win. Keep looking. While Buffalo has come close, we all know what that counts for. Not only are the winless Bills being asked to triumph here, they are being requested to do so by a margin. Detroit has far better playmakers and barring recent pattern of mishaps, Lions should triumph. TAKING: LIONS +3

Panthers (1-7) at Buccaneers (5-3)

While the Panthers offer very little, we’re not anxious to be giving away significant points with a Bucs squad whose defense leaves much to be desired. Tampa won earlier meeting in Charlotte but Carolina both ran and passed for more yards than its visitor. Tampa has failed in its two previous attempts as chalk. TAKING: PANTHERS +6½

Chiefs (5-3) at Broncos (2-6)

Broncos are reeling but this would be as good a place as any to reverse current direction. Kansas City will try to run the ball down Denver’s throat but failing to do so will force the Chiefs dreadful passing game to play catch up. Denver rested while KC playing consecutive divisional road games. TAKING: BRONCOS +1

Rams (4-4) at 49ers (2-6)

Most of the Niners’ troubles stem from the quarterback position. While Troy Smith isn’t exactly upper tier, he’s Dan Marino compared to Alex Smith and David Carr. Rams improvement from year ago is certainly commendable but road performances are still an issue and San Fran is in do-or-die situation. TAKING: 49ERS –6

Seahawks (4-4) at Cardinals (3-5)

They should exclude this one from ‘The Red Zone’ coverage. While we can attribute some of the Seachickens ineptitude to its battered roster, the Cardinals have little excuse for their extreme incompetence. Seattle will have some of its wounded back and that’s good enough for us to take any offered points. TAKING: SEAHAWKS +3

Cowboys (1-7) at Giants (6-2)

Where to start with this one? It could be forever since we’ve witnessed a team put forth as weak an effort as the Cowboys have. Conversely, the Giants are amongst the NFC’s best and appear to be getting stronger. However, a new head coach and a two-touchdown cushion is enough to subject us to more of Dallas’ abuse TAKING: COWBOYS +14

Eagles (5-3) at Redskins (4-4)

McNabb, Vick, Kolb, Shanahan. Elaborate all you like. In the end, we’re comfortable backing a Washington team that has already won in Philadelphia and now finds itself taking a few points at home to a divisional foe. Philly may also have some of its focus on next week’s potential showdown with the Giants. TAKING: REDSKINS +3