James Patrick Sports
Patriots vs. Steelers
Two of the NFL’s best meet up in the Sunday night game. The Pats have been winning with good situational football, but their young defense is in disarray, exploited by Peyton Hillis last week. During the Roethlisberger era, Pittsburgh has had success against Belichick defenses that had more talent, averaging (25.4) points/game in their past five games. Six of last seven meetings "over and New England is (6-1) ATS OVER away vs AFC North. Steelers are (5-0) OVER as Home Favorites of (-7) or less off Monday game. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday NFL complimentary Over / Under selection is New England Patriots - Pittsburgh Steelers Over the Total.
EZWINNERS
Kansas City Chiefs -1
This is a good match up for the Chiefs who are coming off of a tough loss at Oakland last week. Denver quarterback Kyle Orton is putting up big passing yardage numbers this season, but it is more by necessity than choice. The Broncos have a lot of issues on the offensive line and can't run the ball at all. The Chiefs do have a strong running game with the one two punch of Jamal Charles and Thomas Jones and should be able to pound the Denver defense that has given up an average of 208 yards of rushing in their last four games. The Broncos are only 1-3 at home this season and are on a 5-13 slide against the spread since last season. Play on Kansas City.
Chip Chirimbes
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Carolina Panthers +7
Here I go again believing that the worst team in the NFL is the point spread winner. Why? You might ask. Well, here goes...Tampa Bay may be considered the best in the NFC by their coach Raheem Morris but he has been a drag on his backers as the Buccs are 3-8 straight-up and only 1-10-1 against the points at home. Add that Carolina has a 14-2 ATS in division games when playing off a loss. It won't matter who the Panthers quarterback is because John Fox will see that this one goes down to the final gun. Take CAROLINA!
Larry Ness
MIN Pk vs CHI
Despite all the drama that has been a part of their disappointing 3-5 first half to their season, the Vikings remain alive in the NFC North race. However, a win over the 5-3 Bears is crucial to keep those playoff hopes alive. By the way, did you check out what Brett Favre was able to do last week? Despite playing with a broken bone in his foot and without the departed Randy Moss, all Favre did was perhaps enjoy his best statistical day in his storied career, completing 36-of-47 passes for 446 yards. Favre also engineered a 14-point comeback with under four minutes to play as well, plus the completed a successful overtime drive to lead the Vikings to their 27-24 win over Arizona. Now Favre "takes his talents" (where have I heard that phrase before?) to Chicago to play a Bears team that allowed Buffalo to pass for 294 yards in their narrow 22-19 win over the winless Bills in Toronto last Sunday. Chicago's suspect secondary is the main reason why it ranks 19th in the NFL by allowing 225.8 passing YPG. The Bears are also struggling to move the football. Their running game ranks 27th in the league, gaining only 90.6 rushing YPG. While offensive coordinator Mike Martz is notorious for abandoning the running game in favor of more passing plays, the results have been disappointing since Chicago is not even gaining over 200 YPG in the air. QB Jay Cutler has thrown only nine TD passes while tossing seven interceptions. Overall, the Bears rank 27th in the NFL in scoring (18.5 PPG) and 29th in yardage (289.5 YPG). This lack of productivity likely spells trouble for Chicago when now facing the tough Vikings defense that ranks 5th in the NFL in yards allowed (304.6 YPG). Unfortunately for the Bears, they are not playing particularly well at home either, given the fact that they have only covered TWO of their last nine games in Soldier Field. Minnesota can really help themselves with a win against its NFC North rival. The Vikings haven't won a road game since Week 8 of last season and that came in Green Bay vs the Packers. A win here vs the Bears will do just fine.
Tom Freese
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Prediction: New York Giants
Dallas is 1-7 straight up this year. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS their last 6 games vs. the Giants. Dallas is 6-13 ATS their last 19 games vs. NFC teams. The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS after rushing for less than 90 yards in their last game. The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS their last 5 games. The Giants are 6-2 straight up this year. New York is 22-9 ATS their last 31 games off a straight up win and they are 36-15-2 ATS their last 53 games after rushing for more than 150 yards in their last game. New York is 4-1 ATS their last 5 games overall.
Frank Jordan
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Minnesota Vikings -1
Minnesota and Brett Favre saved Brad Childress's job for another week with a monster comeback win last week at home over Arizona. That was great and all, but I don't think they can win out and save his job. Chicago is 5-3 and just one win back of Green Bay for top spot in the NFC North. With Green Bay on a bye and having beaten them already this is the change for the Bears to move back into first place. Look for the Bears to go old school and play conservative on offense and leave up to the defense to beat up on Favre. Play Chicago
Chuck O'Brien
Cincinnati (+7) at INDIANAPOLIS
I’m sure there won’t be many handicappers or bettors willing to back a team that’s lost five games in a row and essentially saw its season go down the toilet with Monday’s 27-21 home loss to the Steelers (Cincinnati failed to convert on fourth down inside the Pittsburgh 15-yard line in the final minute). Well, you know how I operate in the NFL: When the whole world goes one direction, I like to go the other.
The positives for the Bengals: Their five-game slide has been by a total of 28 points (5.6 ppg), with the margin of defeat ranging from 3 to 8 points. So it’s not like Cincinnati has been manhandled or anything. Also, since getting blown out at New England in the season opener, the Bengals have played three road games: 20-7 win at Carolina, 23-20 loss at Cleveland, 39-32 loss at Atlanta.
Also, other than a mild shoulder injury to QB Carson Palmer (he’ll play), the Bengals are MUCH healthier than the Colts. Among Indy’s wounded warriors (most of whom will not play today) are WRs Austin Collie, Anthony Gonzalez and Blair White; top two RBs Joseph Addai and Mike Hart; and veteran LB Gary Brackett. In addition, don’t forget that three defensive backs (including former All-Pro Bob Sanders), as well as All-Pro TE Dallas Clark) are on injured reserve and done for the season.
With Palmer, T.O., Ochocinco and Cedric Benson, Cincinnati has more than enough offensive firepower to trade points with Peyton Manning and his MASH unit. And even though Indy has all the pointspread advantages, there’s also no question that the Colts are laying an inflated price.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Chris Jordan
Tennessee (-2) at MIAMI
I'm laying the chalk with the Titans in this one, as I'm thinking we're going to see a pair of veterans get together to lead Tennessee to a road win over the Dolphins.
From what I've read, Vince Young won't be in this game. So, Kerry Collins will likely start at quarterback for the Titans' first game with Randy Moss lined up at the wideout spot.
I know the Dolphins have Chad Pennington under center, and there's a though he can provide some sort of spark, but I'm much more comfortable with Collins, who has enough experience to work with an agile wideout who can go up and get the ball, like Moss.
And don't forget about Chris Johnson, arguably the best running back in the league, and someone who allows his quarterback to easily manage the game because of his elusiveness.
Between Johnson's breakaway speed, and the newfound vertical game with Moss, this is a Titans blowout in the making quite honestly. Miami may keep things close, but that secondary isn't as impressive as it may seem at times. And it only take Moss a little bit to figure when he can break free on one-on-one coverage. He's a master at 'winking' to the quarterback so he knows when it's time to go up top.
And remember, Tennessee is in off a bye week, so it's had plenty of time to prepare the newlook offense for this trip into South Beach.
Lay the two points and play the Titans here.
5♦ TENNESSEE
Karl Garrett
Minnesota at CHICAGO
First meeting of the season between the Vikings and Bears, and G-Man will fall back on the series trends and look for the points to add up.
These teams are on a 6-2-1 series over run the last 9 times they have played, and ALL 4 meetings at Soldier Field in Brad Childress' tenure have eclipsed the posted price.
While Chicago's offense has had trouble putting up points - they have not topped 27 points all season - Minnesota's offense is starting to show some signs of life, as the Vikings have played over the total in ALL 5 of their games since their bye week.
The Vikes have also played high in 5 of their last 6 road games.
The total here seems a little low considering the numbers I just listed above.
G-Man going to play the Vikings and Bears to go over the total for the 5th straight season in the Windy City.
2♦ OVER
Stephen Nover
Minnesota at CHICAGO (+1)
I've got two free selections, the first of which is the Bears to beat the Vikings at home.
Brett Favre bailed out the Vikings at home last week, but Favre hasn't been nearly as effective outdoors. Rain isn't expected in Chicago for Sunday's game, but 20 mph winds are.
The Vikings don't do well at Solider Field having lost in eight of their last nine visits going 2-7 ATS. Minnesota has been a money-burner this season going 2-6 ATS. The Vikings' only covers were at home against Detroit and hosting Dallas. The Vikings covered those two games by a combined three points.
Percy Harvin is dealing with an ankle injury and migraines. Sidney Rice may see his first action, but he's far from 100 percent. He's not going to be anywhere near what he was last year when he was a great player. The Vikings have yet to surpass 24 points in regulation this season.
The Bears' defense has been playing well this season unlike last year when Brian Urlacher was hurt. Chicago has held all but two of its opponents to 19 points or less. No team has scored more than 23 points on the Bears.
Pass protection has been the Bears' biggest weakness. Until last week, though, the Vikings had recorded only six sacks.
The Bears are the more together team, too. The Vikings are a circus right now. Their players can't be trusted to play hard for Brad Childress. Favre, like him or not, keeps his teammates in line. But Favre figures to struggle in this setting and against this foe.
2♦ CHICAGO
Joel Tyson
Detroit (+3) at BUFFALO
Let me get this straight, a team that stands at 0-8 straight up this year, a team that has been held to 19-points or less in 5 of those 8 losses is going to try and cover a field goal impost!?!?!
Count me on on taking the points with the hard-trying Lions. Detroit has been in pretty much every one of their football games this season, and that is even with a variety of quarterbacks under center.
Looks like it is Shaun Hill's turn to lead the Lions today, and I am going to grab any points they are offering with a team that has notched 5 straight covers, and is 7-1 this season against the spread.
The Lions have done a nice job stockpiling young talent through the draft, and the addition of Vanden Bosch has really anchored the stop-unit.
I don't expect the backsliding Bills - just 29 points last 2 games - to be able to do much damage against this defense, and I expect to see the Buffalo mark drop to 0-9 after this game is all said and done.
Take Detroit plus the points.
1♦ DETROIT
Joel Tyson
Carolina at TAMPA BAY
After 8 games it is quite clear the Panthers have issues with scoring the football. Only once in their 8 games played have the Carolina Panthers topped the 18-point mark. That being the case, I am very interested in playing the under this afternoon at Raymond James Stadium.
Second meeting for the Panthers-Bucs this year, and meeting number one saw 27 combined points and an under.
Carolina is on a 5-1 under run their last 6 games, and are 17-8 overall on the under side their last 25 games played.
Believe it or not, Tampa Bay has not scored more than 18 points in any of their 4 home games this year, and Carolina's defense has really not been the problem for them this season.
Look for this meeting to feature plenty of field positioning, and for the under to once again be the way to go.
Just can't see Carolina putting up too many 7-spots based on their track record this season.
Play the low in Carolina-Tampa Bay today.
4♦ UNDER
Chuck O'Brien
St. Louis (+6) at SAN FRANCISCO
For Sunday’s second of two complimentary NFL selections, take the Rams plus the points at San Francisco.
I just don’t trust the 49ers, who come out of their bye at 2-6, to be laying this kind of price against any opponent, even one that’s starting a rookie quarterback who’s still searching for his first NFL road win. Yes, San Francisco went to London and took out the Broncos 24-16 two weeks ago, and in its previous home game it knocked off the suddenly red-hot Raiders. But let’s not forget that in between these two victories the Niners lost 23-20 to the Panthers (Carolina’s only victory to date).
Also, San Francisco is just 1-4 ATS as a favorite on American soil, losing outright to the Seahawks, Chiefs, Eagles and Panthers while barely cashing as a seven-point favorite in the eight-point win over the Raiders.
Conversely, the Rams have been a bettor’s dream this season. They lost 17-13 as a three-point home underdog in the season opener, but have since gone 6-1 ATS (5-1 ATS as an underdog). That includes two spread-covers in narrow road losses at Oakland (16-14) and Tampa Bay (18-17, when the Rams blew a 17-3 lead). Meanwhile, the 49ers have covered just once in the last six years coming out of a bye, and they’re 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a spread-cover.
Finally, believe it or not, I trust St. Louis rookie QB Sam Bradford, who is getting better every week, more than I trust Troy Smith, who was a third-stringer three weeks ago. Yes, Smith had a strong performance against Denver in London, but the Broncos’ defense is awful. The Rams’ D is holding foes to 17.6 points and 314 yards per game, and that includes an aberration “Murphy’s Law” game (44-6 loss at Detroit).
This figures to be a low-scoring contest (seven of the last eight meetings have stayed under the total), and with points at a premium, I’ll side with a feisty pup.
4♦ ST. LOUIS
Stephen Nover
Dallas at NEW YORK
In case you haven't heard Dallas' defense is terrible this season. The Cowboys have allowed 35.8 points in their last five games.
The Giants lit Dallas up for 41 points and 497 yards just three weeks ago. Eli Manning is one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league with 12 touchdown passes in the last four games. Ahmad Bradshaw ranks No. 3 in the NFL in rushing.
New York is averaging 36 points in its last four games. The Giants no longer are Wade Phillips' problem. Jason Garrett is Dallas' new head coach and he's offensive-minded having been the team's offensive coordinator.
Garrett's focus is on offense. The Cowboys have a lot of talent on that side of the ball despite the loss of Tony Romo. Jon Kitna can move the ball. The Cowboys have one of the deepest set of receivers in the league with Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, who is coming on strong, Roy Williams and Jason Witten.
It has been all about offense the last three times these teams have met with 76, 55 and 64 points being scored. In fact six of the last eight meetings have gone over the total.
1♦ OVER GIANTS/COWBOYS
Bobby Maxwell
New England (+4') at PITTSBURGH
For my comp winner, the Patriots got a big wakeup call last week in Cleveland, losing 34-14 as four-point road favorites. Now they come to Pittsburgh for a big primetime showdown and will get inside the number as this one is coming down to the wire and I expect a late FG will decide this one.
New England had won five straight before going to Cleveland and they had cashed in three of their previous four. The Patriots scored wins and covers in Miami and in San Diego before the road loss in Cleveland a week ago. New England has lost consecutive games just twice in the past eight seasons and if they can avoid the turnover bug that got them last week in Cleveland, they should be OK.
With Tom Brady at QB, Brady has played 21 times after a regular-season loss and in those games immediately afterward, he has completed 67 percent of his throws with 42 TDs and just 10 INTs. Against Pittsburgh, Brady is a career 5-1 with two AFC title games played in Pittsburgh and two wins, plus he’s thrown for 11 TDs and three INTs against the Steelers.
He’ll be going up against a Steelers’ secondary that is a little shaky, giving up an average of 272.8 yards per game through the air the last four weeks.
Pittsburgh had to hold on against Cincinnati on Monday night, winning 27-21 thanks to a defensive stand in the final minute. The Steelers have six turnovers in the last three weeks and they have some injuries on the offensive line that might make things tough for QB Ben Roethlisberger.
In this series, the underdog has cashed in eight of the last 10, the Patriots are 5-1 ATS in the last six in Pittsburgh and they are 7-2 ATS in the last nine clashes overall.
The Steelers are just 2-5-1 ATS against winning teams and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six as a home favorite. New England is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five Week 10 games and 3-1-1 in their last five overall.
I will grab the points with the Patriots in this marquee matchup. Play New England.
2♦ NEW ENGLAND