Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, November 15,2009

Matt Fargo
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Denver Broncos vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins +3.5
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Denver has now lost two straight games and doubt is finally starting to settle in. After a 6-0 start, the Broncos were the talk of the NFL but back-to-back losses against the Ravens and Steelers, neither of which were close, has people wondering was the first part of the season a fluke or can Denver bounce back? The public seems to think that the Broncos will bounce back as they are all over them this Sunday but we are seeing a reversal of the line as the number has actually come down. Playing Baltimore and Pittsburgh in consecutive weeks is no easy task and getting Washington may seem like a break but this could be a team ready for a plunge. Heading back to the east coast shows a tough travel log the last three weeks as it was out there against the Ravens, went back home and then is now back east on a short week. That is not prime. Washington is having a truly disappointing season there is no way to sugar coat it. Its two wins have come against the lowly Buccaneers and Rams and even those were ugly. While the Redskins are 2-6, they could feasibly be 0-8 and that is what the majority of the pubic is seeing. However at the same time, they have has some tight games in which is few plays could have turned the game in the other direction. After getting outgained by the Giants in their opener, they have been outgained only once since then which is pretty impressive for a team with only two wins. Because the offense has been so bad, the defense has been the unit that has kept things close and that defense can keep things close again against another offense that is far from potent. Washington was roughed up last weekend by Michael Turner as he gained 166 yards on only 18 carries. The Redskins rushing defense used to be one of the best but it has definitely slipped some. To their credit, they have faced some very good backs this season and while the Broncos running game is decent, there is no one guy who cane take a game over like Turner did. The Redskins will have to be quick off the ball up front and smart with their recognition and feel for blocking schemes. Albert Haynesworth is not making a lot of noise this season because of the Redskins issues but he is having a very good year and he can make a big difference. Denver's offense ranks 31st when running the ball on third or fourth down, while the Redskins have the best defense in the league in the same situation. As mentioned the Redskins offense has been putrid and now with Clinton Portis out, a key ingredient is lost. Denver’s defense has been solid all season but there have been some issues the last couple weeks and we cannot forget this unit was one of the worst in football last season. Don’t be surprised to see Washington finally take some chances. This is the best time to take a team such as Washington as they are facing a team that is not in a good way right now and especially coming off a short week with the added travel on top. The Redskins fall into an incredible situation that has been money for years. Play on home teams after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games and with a winning percentage of .250 or less going up against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 24-1 ATS (96 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Denver is 0-7 ATS as a chalk between 3.5 and 9.5 points over the last two seasons adding icing on the cake. 3* Washington Redskins

John Ryan
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Denver Broncos vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins +3.5
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Ai Simulator grades Washington as a 3* Live Major Dog Play. Supporting this graded play is a reliable money making system that has gone 33-10 for 77% winners since 1999. Play on any team after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and is winning <=25% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Now, here is one of the best systems you will ever see and has gone an amazing 24-1 ATS for 96% winners since 1999. Now fine tuning this system to include only home teams produces a remarkable 24-1 ATS record for 96% winners. AiS shows an 85% probability that Denver will gain between 6 and 6.5 net yards per passing attempt. Note that since 1992, they are just 7-24 ATS in games where this below average offensive production occurred. Denver looked so good and now have been completely exposed by two physical teams in Baltimore and this past Monday night versus the Steelers. Washington, despite their record, is a similar defensive team that ranks 6th in the NFL in yards allowed per game. They rank 9th in points per game allowed. They rank 1st in the NFL in pass defense allowing just 160 yards per game. More trouble ahead for Denver.
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New Orleans Saints vs. St Louis Rams
Play: St Louis Rams +13.5
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Rams as they host the Saints set to start at 1:00. AiS shows a 73% probability that the Rams will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 31-8 ATS for 80% winners since 1999. Play on home teams after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and is a terrible team posting a win percentage of =4.5 rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season since 1992. Too much winning for New Orleans; is that possible? Well, NO is an imperfect 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992. They win the game, but they may have to work a lot harder than they anticipate right now. Take the Rams.

Craig Trapp
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New Orleans Saints vs. St Louis Rams
Play: New Orleans Saints -13.5
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Two teams headed in opposite directions as NO tries to stay undefeated and go 9-0 to start the season. On the other hand STL is coming off their first and possibly only win this season. You might think that nearly a 2 td favorite on the road is too much, but considering that NO is 6-2 ATS thus far and have been outscoring opponents by 16 pts per game it will not be a problem. STL has one weapon Stephen Jackson but the problem is that they are always behind and usually have to abandon the run to try and come back. This will happen again this week as NO will jump out to a 2 TD lead and coast home to a very easy win.

MARC LAWRENCE
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Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
PICK: Cincinnati Bengals +7
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A big battle in the AFC North Division kicks off at the Ketchup Bottle in Pittsburgh when the Steelers host the Bengals Sunday afternoon as they look to avenge a 23-20 loss suffered at Cincinnati in September. Before knee-jerking to that revenge, we’re reminded that the Black-and-Gold is a just 1-10 ATS versus .700 or greater AFC opposition. In addition, the Steelers are just 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS home off a Monday night game and 1-8 ATS in November versus a .500 or greater opponent off a home game. The bottom line is too many bad numbers to be laying into a good team. Grab the points with the Bengals.
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We recommend a 1-unit play on Cincinnati.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
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Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets
PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars +7
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We came up short with the Jaguars last week as they let the Chiefs score a late TD; despite that loss, we're 5-1 (83%) overall our last six "free NFL" selections, and we'll look to get back on track with another play on Jacksonville this week as it travels to New York to take on the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets Jets:

The Jaguars got back to .500 at 4-4 for the third time this season last Sunday when they beat Kansas City, 24-2, and now head to New York to take on a Jets team that has lost four of its last five games.
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David Garrard threw for 264 yards, including a 61-yard TD pass to Mike Sims-Walker, and had a 110.7 QB rating against the Chiefs.

Expect to see a lot of Maurice-Jones Drew in this one as well as the RB continues to excel this season.

After allowing the Titans 305 rushing yards last week, they held the Chiefs to just 60 yards in 14 carries.
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It's true that Jacksonville is just 1-4 ATS its last five overall, but its 4-2 SU its last six and is on a long-term 5-0 ATS run vs. New York.

On the other side of the field: Mark Sanchez is the seventh-lowest rated starting QB in the AFC, and his eight fumbles are a major red flag.

New York is coming off a disheartening loss to the Dolphins and I expect a "letdown" this week; the Jets are 1-4 ATS their last five and are a horrible 2-5 ATS their last seven at Giants Stadium.
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Bottom line: I look for Jones Drew to have a big day and test the Jets defensive line and believe this game will come down to a FG; look for the JAGUARS to improve to a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points and for the Jets to fall to 2-4 ATS their last six as a favorite.

BEN BURNS
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Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans
PICK: Buffalo Bills +7
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I successfully played on the Titans each of the last two weeks here. Two weeks ago, they beat up on the Jaguars, finally earning their first victory. Last week, having "gotten the monkey off their back," the Titans traveled to San Francisco and 'upset' the 49'ers. Some might suggest I stick with the Titans here, subscribing to the "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" mentality. However, while others are beginning to jump back on the Tennessee bandwagon, I feel that this looks like a good spot to go the other way.
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As mentioned, the Titans had to play on the West Coast last week. Buffalo, on the other hand, had the week off. Additionally, the Titans have a big Monday Night showdown vs. division rival Houston on deck. That's arguably one of the bigger games left on their schedule. With a trip to Jacksonville on deck, the Bills have less reason to get caught "looking ahead." Note that the Titans are 0-5 ATS their last five games against teams from the AFC East.

Last week, the Titans were getting points. They haven't fared as well as favorites though, particularly not as home favorites in this range. In fact, the Titans are a money-burning 11-24-1 ATS the last 36 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. During the same stretch, the Bills have gone a profitable 29-18-1 ATS when listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range.
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The Bills admittedly did get beaten up pretty badly by the Texans, prior to their bye. However, they've now had plenty of time to recover from that setback and it should be noted that they've won each of their last two road games (at New York Jets and at Carolina) outright. They're 13-7 SU and 12-7-1 ATS the last 20 times they were coming off a bye, including victories each of the last two seasons. Last year, they were crushed by Arizona prior to their bye but came back and beat San Diego afterwards. The previous season, they beat Dallas after the break. Consider taking the points.

ALEX SMART
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
PICK: Over 43.5
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Sunshine State rivals get it on Sunday afternoon at Land Shark Stadium where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look to improve on their first win of the season against the Miami Dolphins. Both teams have matching 5-3 records for 'over' bettors on the year, and there are plenty of reasons to believe that that trend will continue in Week 10.
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The Bucs' offense wasn't always clicking on all cylinders in their first game with QB Josh Freeman under center, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that the future is bright in Tampa Bay. The first round draft pick out of Kansas State only completed 45% of his passes against Green Bay, but he proved that he can throw the deep ball and get out of trouble and scramble when he needs to. Freeman threw for 205 yards and three TDs in his first NFL start, rushing for 20 yards along the way. As proven by a lot of Miami's games lately, he'll have the ability to stretch the field and try to make connections with his receivers. The Dolphins' young secondary should be as easy of a task as Freeman could ask for in his second career outing.

The Tampa Bay defense ranks 30th against the run, allowing 163.4 yards per game, which is awful news considering that the Wildcat is primed and ready to run wild. Last week against New England, Miami unveiled another wrinkle to their arsenal, a straight speed option with QB Pat White and either of his stud running backs, Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. There could be even more options thrown into the mix as White becomes more acclimated with the NFL, which could make things very, very dangerous for some big runs on Sunday afternoon. Miami's problem hasn't been scoring points of late, that's for certain. The team has averaged 30.0 points per game since QB Chad Henne took over for the injured QB Chad Pennington.
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Even though these squads don't hook up often, dating back to 1991, three of the L/4 meetings have gone past the number. Twelve of Tampa Bay's L/14 games against teams with a losing record have eclipsed the 'total', as have 11 of its L/15 road games overall. Ten of Miami's L/13 games following an SU defeat have cashed for 'over' bettors as well.
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Expect to see the youthful offense of the Bucs step it up a notch again on Sunday and put forth a respectable effort. With as well as the Dolphins' 'O' has been playing, expect to see another big number put up on their side of the scoreboard as well. If the Bucs can reach 20, this should be easy, as the Fins absolutely cannot afford to let their guard down and lose this game if they think that they can still go to the playoffs. Book it!!!

MTi Sports
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New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams
Prediction: St. Louis Rams
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The Rams are 9-0 ATS (+10.0 ppg) at home when they covered by 10+ points last week. AND the league is 7-0 ATS since 1992 as a 7+ home dog when they just won their first game of the season after at least four losses, covering the spread by a staggering 16.6 ppg. These TD+ dogs are 5-1-1 straight up. In 2008, the Rams beat the Cowboys 34-14 as a seven-point home dog in week seven after upsetting the Redskins 19-17 the previous week. Also, in eleven 2008, the Bengals played the Eagles to a 13-13 tie as a nine-point home dog the week after beating the Jaguars 21-19 for their first win of the season.With the Saints 0-8 ATS (-15.8 ppg) as a 7+ favorite when facing a team that has benefited from an average of less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date, we'll consider taking the big number.

Alex Grosse
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +7
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This line is a little inflated. The Jets shouldn't be favored by more than 3-4 points in this matchup. They have only one win in their last 5 overall and that win came agaisnt the Oakland Raiders. The Jags on the other hand have failed to cover the number for 4 consecutive contests but they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Jacksonville's recipe for success is rather simple. They need Maurice Jones-Dru to carry their offense just like Frank Gore did Thursday night for the San Francisco 49ers against the Bears. The Jets are a tough defensive football team under Rex Ryan but they only rank 15th against the run. They lost DT Kris Jenkins for the season and this is a huge blow to their defense as he was a critical component to stopping the run. Additionally, the Jets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 as a 3.5 to 10 point fave. Expect Jacksonville to keep this one close and possibly even win this one outright. Take the Jags with the points.

Kyle Hunter
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Over 47
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I was pretty surprised when I saw this number at just 47. The Dallas offense has been getting it back together of late and the Packers defense has been giving up a lot the last couple of games. I think Rodgers and the Packers offense will be able to move the ball through the air enough to put quite a few points up as well. The over is 23-9-1 in Green Bay's last 33 games overall and 7-3 in Dallas' last 10 games. Take the over in this one!

Joseph D'Amico
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Over 41
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I expect this game to be a high-scoring affair. Both Pitt and Baltimore are very similar teams. Cincy is 3-0 SU vs. both Pitt and Baltimore TY. RB Cedric Benson broke 100 yards lrushing last week against the tough Raven's defense. The Bengal's can now be a two-pronged attack, passing off of the run. Pittsburgh has put up 27 points or more in 5 straight games. QB Ben Rothlesberger and his offense is throwing more and scoring more. Their 1st outing was an OVER for 43 combined points. OVER is 6-1 in these 2 teams last 7 meetings in Pittsburgh, 16-6 in Pitt's last 22 vs. the AFC, and 45-20-2 in Pitt's last 67 as a home favorite. Take the OVER.

Black Widow
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1* Seattle Seahawks +9
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Seattle has a fighting chance to win the NFC West, but they must win this game Sunday at Arizona to pull it off. Seattle sits 2 games back of the Cardinals, but a win Sunday would draw them to within 1 game of the division lead. Arizona has been vulnerable at home this season, and they've actually played their best football on the road. The Cardinals are 1-3 at home this season, losing by an average of 7.8 points/game. The lost to the 49ers to open their home schedule, then lost to the Colts 10-31 followed by a 7-point home win over Houston and then a 21-34 loss to Carolina on their home turf. So the Cardinals have yet to win a home game by more than a touchdown. Arizona will get Seattle's best effort this weekend as this is the Seahawks' season, and that effort will be good enough to stay within a touchdown and possibly pull off the upset. The Cardinals have struggled against the pass, giving up 247 passing yards/game this season and Seattle's strength is their passing attack. The Seahawks are averaging 236 passing yards/game. Two early turnovers by Seattle gave Arizona a quick 14-0 lead in the first quarter of their first meeting this season, so look for the Seahawks to come out and take care of the ball Sunday to avoid another big early deficit this time around. The Cardinals are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Take Seattle and the points as they lay it all on the line Sunday.

WUNDERDOG

New Orleans at St. Louis
Pick: UNDER 50

The Cardinals have won just three football games in their last 28 tries. For that they can primarily blame their offense which is amongst the worst in NFL history over that period. The Rams offense has accounted for seven touchdowns in eight games on the season, and they have one INT returned for a TD. They rank dead last in the NFL, scoring just one of those seven offensive TDs from inside the 10-yard line. Overall the Rams average less than 10 points per game. It is very rare to see a total set in a game at or around the 50-point mark with just one offensive team in the game. The Saints offense is certainly powerful, but to put this one over the total it is likely they will have to push the 40-point mark. The Rams have played in just seven games in the last three years where a game total exceeded 50 points, discounting week 17 when mostly reserves play. The Rams defense isn't great, but they have only allowed 40 points or more in a game six times in their last 66 games (9% of the time). If and when the Saints open a big lead, they will eventually turn to the running game to milk the clock, and they may even rest starters late in this one. Yes, the Saints have put up 30+ points in each of their last four games. But, under Sean Payton, they are a perfect 6-0 UNDER follwoing 3+ straight games scoring 25 or more. I like this one to go UNDER the total.

Norm Hitzges

Double Plays

Dallas -3 vs Green Bay
Minnesota -10 vs Tampa Bay
New England +3 vs Indianapolis
NY Jets -7 vs Jacksonville
KC/Oakland Under 36.5
Baltimore -10.5 vs Cleveland

Single Plays

Kansas City +1.5 vs Oakland
Tennessee +6.5 vs Buffalo
Detroit +17 vs Minnesota
Carolina +1.5 vs Atlanta
Denver/Washington Under 37
Cincinnati/Pittsburgh Over 41.5
Dallas/Green Bay Over 47.5